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Poll: Which NL Team Will Have Biggest Turnaround?

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With the MLB playoffs expanding to ten teams, clubs have even more reason to be hopeful about their prospects in 2012.  While some fans are questioning the wisdom change, it seems likely that it will result in an even more exciting chase down the wire.

Yesterday, we asked MLBTR readers which 90-win team is most likely to disappoint in 2012.  The three top vote getters – the Brewers (27.23%), Cardinals (17.39%), and Diamondbacks (15.89%) – all came out of the National League.  Now, it's time to look at last year's non-playoff NL teams.  Which club do you see having the biggest turnaround this season?

 

Poll: Which 90-Win Team Will Disappoint?

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One third of MLB teams won 90 regular season games in 2011, and all but one of them –the Red Sox — made the playoffs. Each of last year's 90-win teams enters the 2012 season with hopes of repeating or building on their success, but at least one or two of those nine clubs will probably regress this year.

Some of last year's contenders, such as the Phillies and Yankees, have room for error. They will contend in 2012 even if their win total drops by five or ten games, especially since the MLB playoffs are expanding this year. Which of these 2011 contenders is most likely to struggle in 2012:

Poll: The Yankees’ Next DH

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The Yankees freed up some money yesterday by agreeing to trade A.J. Burnett to the Pirates for two minor leaguers and a total of $13MM in salary relief. They’ll save $5MM in 2012 and $8MM in 2013. Reports indicate that they’re expected to sign both Raul Ibanez and Eric Chavez once the trade becomes official.

Chavez will fill out the bench like last year, but Ibanez would step in as the left-handed half of a DH platoon with Andruw Jones. Even though Spring Training is right around the corner, there is no shortage of DH-type bats on the open market as our Free Agent Tracker shows. If the Yankees were to decide to pass on Ibanez, they could always turn to Vladimir Guerrero or former Yankees Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui. Guerrero is a right-handed hitter, however. They also signed Russell Branyan to a minor league contract recently.

Given Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch and the presence of Jones, it makes sense for the Yankees to pursue a left-handed bat. Ibanez hit .245/.289/.419 overall last year but .256/.307/.440 against righties, which is good but not great. Damon (.255/.314/.401) and Matsui (.242/.318/.336) weren’t any better against righties, and in fact Guerrero outperformed all three of those guys against northpaws (.291/.315/.428). The Yankees have no shortage of DH options, but which one is the best?

Poll: Who Had The Better Offseason, Marlins Or Nats?

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The NL East was the most improved division in baseball this winter and it was almost entirely due to the efforts of just two teams.  The Marlins and Nationals both made big strides towards joining the Phillies and Braves in what could be a spirited pennant race this season.  (Sorry, Mets fans.)

With their new ballpark opening this April, the Marlins decided to take the opportunity to overhaul the entire franchise, debuting new uniforms, a new logo and even a new name, as the Florida Marlins made way for the Miami Marlins.  The first major move came when Ozzie Guillen was hired as the team's new manager and then the Fish took the free agent market by storm.  Miami signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell for a combined $191MM — a stunning outlay for traditional small-payroll club.  The starting rotation was further bolstered by trades for Wade LeBlanc and the controversial Carlos Zambrano.  Between these moves and Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez looking to rebound from injury and a poor season, respectively, it's easy to see why some pundits have picked the Marlins to reach the playoffs this year.

The Nationals are also getting some love from the preseason analysts.  Washington's offseason was a bit more low-key to start with, as the club focused on bolstering their minor league depth, re-signing Chien-Ming Wang and adding Ryan Perry to the bullpen.  January, however, was much busier, as the Nats dealt four of their best prospects in order to acquire Gio Gonzalez from the A's and then promptly locked the left-hander up in a five-year extension.  GM Mike Rizzo then completed his search for starting pitching by signing Edwin Jackson to a one-year contract, thus pairing Jackson and Gonzalez along with Wang, Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann in what could be one of the strongest rotations in baseball.

The Marlins are clearly trying to win now.  The Nationals may still be looking to 2013 as their true "go for it" year, but with Strasburg recovered from Tommy John surgery and other impact players like Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse on board, it wouldn't be surprising to see Washington contend right now.  With all this in mind, which team's offseason do you think was the most impressive?

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Manny Ramirez?

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Manny Ramirez’s comeback attempt isn’t your typical feel good comeback story. He abruptly retired last April following a second failed PED test, and several of his former employers had grown tired of his Manny Being Manny act. His offensive production started to wane with age, and he never had much defensive value during his career.

Ramirez, 40 in May, is one of the best hitters of his generation however, a .312/.411/.585 career hitter with 547 doubles and 555 homers. He reached base just once (a single) in 17 plate appearances with the Rays last year before calling it quits, but his comeback attempt is sincere. He’s open to a minor league contract and was scheduled to work out for teams last month. Given his career earnings — nearly $207MM according to Baseball-Reference — it’s hard to believe Ramirez is trying to get back in the game for money.

Manny is reportedly deciding between three teams at the moment: the Athletics, Blue Jays, and Orioles. All three clubs need a DH-type bat, but he would have to serve a 50-game suspension before playing. The suspension will begin once he signs a contract. The Yankees, Rangers, and Mariners could all conceivably add a DH as well, but none of those clubs have been connected to Ramirez this offseason.

Poll: Should The Angels Trade Trumbo Or Morales?

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Albert Pujols is a great problem to have. The Angels created a serious logjam by signing the greatest hitter of the generation last month, as they now have about five players — Mark Trumbo, Kendrys Morales, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu — competing for the two corner outfield spots and DH. That doesn't include Mike Trout, another outfielder and arguably the best prospect in baseball.

The Angels have indicated a willingness to keep Abreu because his left-handed bat helps balance out a righty heavy lineup, plus Wells and Hunter are unlikely to be traded given their salaries. Trumbo and Morales are first basemen like Pujols, and figure to be among the first to go if a trade is made.

Trumbo, 26 next week and with five years of team control left, finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2011. That was due to his gaudy home run (29) and RBI (87) totals though, not his batting average (.254) or OBP (.291). Power is becoming harder to find these days, and Trumbo certainly has plenty of it. We know the Angels are looking for bullpen help, and if yesterday's Anthony Rizzo trade is any indication, the Angels could get a young, cost controlled power arm for their bullpen by dealing their incumbent first baseman. I'm just speculating, but the Indians, Pirates, Brewers, and Rays make sense as trade partners.

Morales, on the other hand, is 28 with just two more years of team control left. His value is way down because he hasn't played in a year and a half due to leg and ankle injuries, though he's recently been cleared "ramp up" baseball activities during his rehab according to Mike DiGiovanna of The Los Angeles Times. Prior to the injury, he'd hit .302/.353/.548 with 45 homers in 203 games from 2009-2010. The Halos would probably be selling low on Morales by trading him now, but they stand to save just about $3MM by moving him according to our projections. Again, those same four teams make sense as trade partners.

The Angels have indicated that Trumbo will work out at third base during Spring Training to see if he can get some at-bats there, but they might not have a better trade chip at their disposal (assuming Trout is off the table). It's worth noting that they just signed Jorge Cantu to a minor league deal to serve as depth at both corner infield spots, so they have some protection there.

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Roy Oswalt?

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During the Winter Meetings, it was reported that Roy Oswalt was looking to sign a three-year deal.  However, interest in the veteran has picked up greatly since he began telling teams roughly two weeks ago that he only wants a one-year commitment.  The 34-year-old's change of heart will certainly help his case on the open market, but what team will pony up the money that he's looking for?

The Red Sox and Yankees are looking to bolster their respective rotations, but both clubs are wary of the luxury tax threshold.  A one-year, eight-digit deal wouldn't be out of the question for either team if it weren't for the 40% penalty they would have to pay on top of it.  Both teams have expressed interest in the Cubs' Matt Garza but they're certainly not alone in that.  The Marlins and Tigers appear to be the frontrunners to land the right-hander while the Blue Jays have also been connected to him.  One has to imagine that the clubs that miss out on Garza will be in the mix for Oswalt.

There are other teams that have been interested in Oswalt this winter but seem unlikely for one reason or another.  The Rangers would have liked to bring the veteran back to the state of Texas but they've since won the bidding for Yu Darvish.  The Nationals were also in on Oswalt but their rotation is both formidable and deep after the acquisition of Gio Gonzalez.

We may have to wait for the dust to settle on the Garza talks to find out, but where do you see Roy Oswalt signing?

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Carlos Pena?

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It’s been a very slow offseason for Carlos Pena, at least in terms of hot stove rumors. The 33-year-old first baseman was understandably overshadowed by Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder heading into free agency, and even now he’s still playing second fiddle to Fielder, a fellow Scott Boras client.

Pena is one of the best remaining free agent power hitters, hitting at least 28 homers in each of the last five seasons. Although his batting average (.216 from ’09-’11) leaves much to be desired, he still draws plenty of walks (walked in 15.6% of his plate appearances from ’09-’11) and gets on base at a solid clip (.346 OBP from ’09-’11). Pena is generally regarded as a strong defender at first, but he’s going to need a platoon partner after hitting just .179/.306/.398 against southpaws from ’09-’11.

Boras is confident that he’ll get multiyear offers for Pena, who is a Type-B free agent and will not require the signing team to forfeit a draft pick. The Blue Jays, Brewers, Indians, Mariners, Nationals, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, and Rays are all in the hunt for an upgrade at first base/designated hitter, and we shouldn’t rule out a return to the Cubs either.

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Ryan Madson?

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Ryan Madson probably lost another potential suitor when the Red Sox traded for Andrew Bailey. The Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets and Padres are among the other possible Madson suitors that have acquired other closers this offseason. However, the Angels, Reds, Rays, White Sox, Astros and Dodgers could be in the market for closers, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter) and I’ll add the Orioles to the list of potentially interested clubs.

Madson won't come cheap, of course. He appeared to be close to signing a $44MM contract with the Phillies early in the offseason, and the non-deal gives us a sense of agent Scott Boras’ asking price. Though the market for closers doesn’t currently seem strong, we shouldn't forget that Boras found a three-year deal for Rafael Soriano last offseason, after demand for closers appeared to have diminished.

Madson’s the best free agent reliever remaining; where will he sign?

 

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Hiroki Kuroda?

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As we approach the New Year, Hiroki Kuroda stands as one of the most attractive starters remaining on the open market.  The possibilities for Kuroda seemed to be rather limited when the offseason began but are now wide open. 

The hurler’s stated preference for remaining in Los Angeles led to him blocking deals that would have shipped him to a contender over the summer.  Even though Kuroda wanted to work out a new deal with the Dodgers, their financial restrictions led them to spend elsewhere and sign Chris Capuano to a highly back loaded deal.

Now, Kuroda is reportedly willing to listen to offers from all suitors, though it seems that he would prefer to remain on the West Coast.  The right-hander is after a $12-$13MM annual salary and at his age (37 in February), he won’t be seeking a long-term commitment. 

The Yankees and Red Sox, two teams who were pushing for him in July, are said to be in the mix.  The Diamondbacks and Rockies would each like to keep him in the NL West, though both clubs are budget-conscious as they look for a starter.  Kuroda was reportedly close to signing somewhere last week but all of the aforementioned teams plus the Rangers and Mariners said that it wasn’t with them.  Of course, there’s always the possibility that he’ll make his long-rumored return to the Hiroshima Carp.  So, where do you see Kuroda landing?

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