MLBTR Polls

The contracts signed by Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo have topped even some of the more aggressive projections from the onset of the offseason. Cano inked a ten-year, $240MM contract with the Mariners. Ellsbury became the latest mega-deal for the Yankees when he signed for $153MM over seven years. And though Choo reportedly turned down $140MM from the Yankees, he still found himself a seven-year, $130MM payday from the Rangers.

Each player comes with some concerns. Choo's defensive skills have slipped in recent years (though most still think he can be a solid defender at an outfield corner), and he struggles against left-handed pitching. Ellsbury's game is tied largely to his speed — an asset that may deteriorate with age. He has just one season of elite power numbers under his belt. Cano is one of the game's best all-around players, but as such, he commanded the third-largest deal in baseball history and required an additional three guaranteed years over Choo and Ellsbury at a higher annual salary.

Each of these contracts comes with an enormous amount of risk, but such is the case when pursuing free agents of this nature. Technically, Brian McCann's contract could hit $100MM if his sixth-year option vests, but I elected not to include him for this poll because he wasn't guaranteed a nine-figure payday. That being said…

MLBTR's Tim Dierkes kicked off the offseason by providing our Top 50 list of 2014 free agents (along with predictions for where each would sign). Since that time, 35 of the 50 free agents have come off the board, including each of the top four. Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo and Brian McCann have all found new homes, leaving recently posted Masahiro Tanaka as the top remaining free agent from MLBTR's Top 50.

The remaining list features a mix of starting pitchers, infielders, outfielders and relievers, each of whom should still be able to add considerable value to a club. However, while most agreed that some combination of Cano, Ellsbury, Choo and McCann were the top four names on this year's market, opinions began to differ significantly after that point. In particular, there's a split as to which of Tanaka, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza is the best bet among free agent pitchers. Tanaka will almost certainly sign the largest contract, but that's largely due to his age (25) and his lack of draft pick compensation. Does that mean he's a better pitcher than the others? That's up for debate.

With all that said, let's open this up to MLBTR readership. Based purely on talent and expected contribution to a team, rank the remnants of our initial Top 50 list below.

Click here to see the results as they come in (apologies for including the wrong link initially — results should be working properly at this time).

While the MLB Winter Meetings are already fading in the rearview mirror, it seemed that we ought to do at least one poll on the results. With so much money already committed through free agency, I wondered at the outset of the meetings whether the stage was set for interesting trade scenarios. So, we'll ask MLBTR readers: which teams best utilized their time in Orlando to swing a trade?

Though nothing qualifying as a blockbuster went down, there were some interesting swaps. And each appeared to feature different strategic motivations and philosophies on player value. Such differences, of course, are fuel for the hot stove (and are what make trades so interesting). So, here are the four major deals in a nutshell:

The Price of Power

The deal:

• Diamondbacks acquire OF Mark Trumbo, RHP A.J. Schugel, and OF Brandon Jacobs in exchange for OF Adam Eaton and LHP Tyler Skaggs
• Angels acquire Skaggs and LHP Hector Santiago in exchange for Trumbo and Schugel
• White Sox acquire Eaton in exchange for Santiago and Jacobs

Summary:

It was easy to see the respective clubs' motivations in making this deal, but check out their GMs' comments for a refresher. Power went to Arizona, young arms to Los Angeles (including one with upside in Skaggs), and a nice, affordable outfield piece to Chicago. The Diamondbacks got the biggest name and, perhaps, most immediate impact, but the other clubs filled holes in a cost-efficient manner. Which end do you like?

Left-Side Upside

The deal:

• Rockies acquire LHP Brett Anderson and $2MM in exchange for LHP Drew Pomeranz and RHP Chris Jensen
• Athletics acquire Pomeranz and Jensen in exchange for Anderson and $2MM

Summary: 

If you're interested in tracking buy-low opportunities on talented left-handed pitching, this deal is one to keep an eye on. Both pitchers were born in 1988, interestingly enough. Anderson brings a tantalizing MLB track record, but comes with serious injury concerns, a substantial price tag, and only two years of control. Pomeranz has yet to realize his ability at the game's highest level — he has a 5.20 ERA in 136 2/3 MLB innings split over three seasons — but still comes with five years of team control and his top-25 prospect pedigree. So, which southpaw was the better one to take a chance on?

Efficient Flip

The deal:

• Nationals acquire LHP Jerry Blevins in exchange for OF Billy Burns
• Athletics acquire Burns in exchange for Blevins

Summary:

Everyone knew the Nationals were going to add a southpaw reliever; it was just a question of who and how. With the price on the open market not to the club's liking, it decided to barter. Blevins is arguably a more attractive piece than Boone Logan, but his final two arb years should cost the Nats less than a quarter of Logan's $16.5MM guarantee from Colorado. Meanwhile, Burns was blocked in the D.C. system, but could provide cheap, solid production in Oakland before long. His top-level defense and baserunning give him the kind of floor that could be money in the bank in a year or two. This looks like a nice way for both teams to preserve future resources, but did either team achieve enough value to make their end of the deal the best at the Winter Meetings?

Valuing LoMo

The deal:

• Mariners acquire 1B/DH Logan Morrison in exchange for RHP Carter Capps
• Marlins acquire Capps in exchange for Morrison

Summary:

A deal involving Morrison became a fait accompli when Miami inked Garrett Jones, but his market value remained difficult to assess. Once a top prospect, Morrison had hit at a well-above-average clip for his first 800+ plate appearances before injury and inconsistency derailed him in 2012-13. When Wednesday became moving day for corner outfield/first base/DH types with question marks, we got our answer on LoMo's return: Capps, a big-armed, cost-controlled 23-year-old who has a good bit of upside (within the bounds of possibility for a right-handed reliever). Do you see Morrison as an undervalued asset, view Capps as the kind of young power arm that the Cardinals just rode to a World Series appearance, or both?

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To get at the true sentiments of MLBTR readers, I'll ask you to order the trades — from most beneficial to least — that were consummated at the 2013 Winter Meetings. (Note: response order is randomized.)

Click here to see the results as they roll in.

Last year marked the first time that the new qualifying offer system was employed. All nine players who were extended an offer declined to accept it. In addition to turning down a sure $13.3MM, those players hit the market with draft pick compensation attached. Things worked out well enough, as each ultimately signed for a comfortable bit more than the qualfying offer, with only one (Hiroki Kuroda) settling for a one-year deal and total guarantee of less than $24MM.

This time around, we learned today, a club hoping to affix the poison pill of draft pick compensation to an outgoing free agent will need to offer $14.1MM. With the number settled, I thought it would be interesting to see whether MLBTR's readers think we'll see a first for the QO system: a player that accepts the offer. Of course, there are good reasons to expect that such a result will be a relative rarity, beginning with the fact that borderline players may not get an offer in the first place. But it is bound to happen sooner or later. 

Recently, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes asked our readers to assess which players would receive an offer from their club. (Here are the results.) Starting from his list, it doesn't seem worth considering everyone. Some are no-brainers both to get an offer and to reject it: Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, and Brian McCann. While things start to get debatable after that group, it is hard to see Curtis Granderson, Mike Napoli, or Ervin Santana taking a QO at this stage. (I considered excluding Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Tim Lincecum, and Carlos Beltran as well, but decided to keep them in the poll.) Then, let's strike a few off the bottom of the list who probably have no chance at the offer at this point: Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, and Scott Kazmir. And, of course, Hunter Pence has already re-signed.

The remaining group includes the likeliest possibilities. All are at least plausible candidates to get an offer. And whether owing to age, market uncertainty, personal considerations, or a poor platform year, there is at least some reason to believe that each could be enticed to take a cool $14MM when it is the only money actually sitting on the table.

So, is there a team that will make an offer to a player that it expects to accept? And/or a player sufficiently concerned with the Bourn-Lohse effect to do just that? What is the likeliest situation to result in an accepted offer: an aging veteran starter looking for one last go (perhaps Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett, Kuroda)? a high-upside arm looking to ensure a payday and build more value (Ubaldo Jimenez, Lincecum)? a low-ceiling, high-floor middle-infielder who a contender might pay handsomely for a single campaign (Stephen Drew, Omar Infante)? an established power bat with defensive limitations (Beltran, Nelson Cruz, Kendrys Morales)? or an emergent backstop who comes with some questions about the sustainability of his breakout (Saltalamacchia)?

Which — if any — of the following players do you see as the most likely to both receive and accept a qualifying offer from their current club during the coming off-season? (Response choice order has been randomized.)

Last offseason, nine players received qualifying offers worth $13.3MM.  At least two more would have been likely to receive one had they not been deemed ineligible due to midseason trades.  A qualifying offer, if turned down, enables the team losing the free agent to receive a draft pick as compensation.  We haven't seen a player accept a qualifying offer yet, but the process is still in its infancy.  I've estimated the qualifying offer amount at around $14MM for the 2013-14 offseason.  Below, I've drafted an inclusive list of candidates to receive one on the fifth day after the World Series ends this year.  In today's poll, please check all whom you expect to receive a qualifying offer.  You can click here to view the results.