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Poll: Which AL GM Made The Best Offseason Moves?

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Baseball’s 30 general managers complete hundreds of transactions every offseason as they look for ways of improving their respective teams. Some of those moves, such as the signing of Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, generate tons of buzz. Others go unnoticed until the season begins and players start exceeding or falling short of expectations.

MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker offers a look back at last offseason’s moves (you can filter by team for more focused summaries). Now that the stretch run of the 2012 season is about to begin, let’s take stock of last winter’s moves. Taking into account both 2012 results and the long-term outlook, which American League general manager had the best 2011-12 offseason?

Poll: How Will The Giants Finish?

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It has been over a week since Melky Cabrera was handed a 50-game suspension for a failed PED test, ending his 2012 season and all but ending his hopes for a big multiyear contract this winter.  Wherever Cabrera plays in 2013, it doesn't look like it will be in San Francisco, as his chances of re-signing are "close to nil" given the blow his suspension has dealt to the Giants' playoff chances.

Then again, so far Cabrera's absence hasn't hurt the club.  The Giants are 5-2 since Cabrera's suspension and are currently riding a three-game win streak following a sweep over the Dodgers in Los Angeles.  Minus Brian Wilson in the bullpen, it's almost like 2010 all over again — Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval are carrying the lineup, while the Giants' rotation is keeping opponents off the scoreboard.  Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are Cy Young candidates, Ryan Vogelsong has pitched very well outside of some recent poor outings, Barry Zito has held his own as the fifth starter and even Tim Lincecum has begun to regain his old form, posting a 3.03 ERA over his last five starts.

Heading into tonight's action, the Giants are 69-55 and hold a 2.5-game lead over the Dodgers (and a 5.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks) in the NL West.  In a division of flawed teams, the Giants might still have enough to take the division and make some noise in the postseason.  Even minus Cabrera, do the Giants have enough to win their second World Series in three years? 

Poll: How Will Nationals Fare Without Strasburg?

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With a Major League-leading 71-44 record, the Nationals have surprised the baseball world this season thanks to a balanced offensive attack and a dominant pitching staff. Led by Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann, the Nationals' young arms have the team on track to secure the NL East with only 47 games remaining.

Strasburg, 24 and less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery, will be forced to miss his last two to three starts and the entire postseason as the Nationals organization has set an unofficial innings limit for its young ace. There's no doubt the Nationals will be negatively impacted once Washington GM Mike Rizzo decides to call it a season for the former San Diego State star.

The question becomes how will the Nationals fare the remainder of the season when they shut down Strasburg, who's pitched to a 2.90 ERA with 11.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.

Poll: How Will The Athletics Finish?

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The Athletics have not qualified for the postseason since 2006, the year Frank Thomas went from DH flier to MVP candidate by hitting .270/.381/.545 with 39 homers. Oakland comes into today in a virtual four-way tie for one of the two AL Wild Card spots, and they’ve won 34 of 51 games (.667) over the last two calendar months. They lead the league with 13 walk-off wins.

GM Billy Beane swung two of the best trades of the offseason by acquiring Josh Reddick (for Andrew Bailey) and Jarrod Parker (for Trevor Cahill). Reddick is hitting .257/.330/.510 with 25 homers while Parker has pitched to a 3.55 ERA in 19 starts. Tommy Milone, who came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade, has a 3.91 ERA in 22 starts. Add in a strong performance from bargain signing Bartolo Colon (3.38 ERA in 22 starts) and big performance from big money signing Yoenis Cespedes (.307/.368/.515 with 14 homers), and you have arguably the best Athletics team in the last six years.

The A’s are currently in second place in the AL West but sit just a half-game ahead of the Angels. They’re 5.5 back of the Rangers. To finish with their first winning season since 2006, they’ll need to win at least 22 of their final 50 games. That seems like the easy part considering the tough competition for a playoff berth.

Poll: How Will The Dodgers Finish?

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The Dodgers’ new ownership group has made it clear that they are committed to winning once again in Los Angeles and they spared no expense prior to the trade deadline to try and make that happen.  Inside of a week, General Manager Ned Colletti was given the greenlight to acquire shortstop Hanley Ramirez, outfielder Shane Victorino, and right-hander Brandon League.  The Dodgers’ deadline potentially could have been even more wallet-busting had the Phillies agreed to part with Cliff Lee and the roughly $95MM owed to him through the rest of his contract.

Since acquiring Ramirez in late July and putting him into action on the 25th, the Dodgers are 7-7 in 14 games.  The enigmatic star is now making his homecoming tonight in Miami as the Dodgers sport a 60-52 record.  Los Angeles sits just one game behind the Giants for first place in the NL West and 3.5 games back of the Pirates for the second wild card slot.

Will their recent offensive infusion help them get over the hump and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2009?  For the Dodgers to wind up below the .500 mark, they’d have to finish 20-30 or worse.  To win 90 games, they’d have to go 30-20.  There are 50 games remaining, how do you see it playing out?

Poll: How Will The Orioles Finish?

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The Orioles were one of MLB’s model franchises for decades, but teams of the 1960s, ‘70s and ‘80s have given way to clubs that have been unable to reach the .500 mark for the last 14 years. While no organization rivals the Pirates’ streak of losing seasons, the Orioles haven’t had a winning record or made the playoffs since 1997.

Everything could change this year if the Orioles continue to play well for the next two months. They're currently 60-51, tied with the Tigers and Athletics for the lead in the American League Wild Card race, and 1.5 games ahead of the Rays and Angels. With five teams playing for two spots, competition for the Wild Card spots will no doubt be heated.

The Orioles have allowed 47 more runs than they've scored, which suggests their .541 winning percentage is unsustainable. But their 60 wins aren’t going to disappear, so they’re very much in contention. Manny Machado is joining the team, and Dylan Bundy might be next. As Dave Cameron explained this morning, there’s a definite chance Baltimore could win enough to reach the postseason. Even if it’s not necessarily likely, the playoffs are within reach.

For the Orioles to end up below .500, they’d have to finish 20-31 or worse. To win 90 games, they’d have to finish 30-21 or better. There are still 51 games to go…

Poll: How Will The Pirates Finish?

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The Pirates are 20 wins away from assuring themselves of their first winning season since 1992, and they have a realistic chance at an even greater accomplishment. The Pirates are currently in playoff position, 2.5 games ahead of the Cardinals for the National League's second Wild Card spot. Baseball Prospectus calculates that there’s a 55.5% chance the Pirates make the playoffs this year.

But a lot can happen in two months. The Pirates made midseason upgrades a year ago, acquiring Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick, only to falter down the stretch and finish with a 72-90 record. This year's Pirates team is much better at preventing runs, yet it doesn't generate much offense. The Pirates are 11th in the NL in runs scored and their team on-base percentage is just .303.

For the Pirates to finish below .500, they’d have to finish 18-35 or worse. To win 90 games, they’d have to finish 28-25 or better. With 53 games to go, a lot of uncertainty exists…

Poll: Player Most Likely To Be Traded In August

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The non-waiver trade deadline saw countless teams wheel and deal with hopes that acquiring the right piece or two would be enough to make a legitimate run during the playoffs this October. There's still an opportunity for a contender to make a move as teams have until the August 31 waiver trade deadline to make up for a just-missed transaction from last week. While some of the players passed through waivers over the course of August are capable of contributing to a winning team, many come with a bloated contract and statistics unworthy of those dollars. 

Which player do you see as the most likely to change uniforms via trade this month?

Poll: Should The Phillies Let Cliff Lee Go?

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Last night, the Dodgers were awarded claiming rights on Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee after the nine other National League clubs with worse records declined.  By claiming Lee, the Dodgers opened themselves up to the possibility of either trading for the left-hander or being assigned his contract which would saddle them with roughly $95MM in future commitments.  The struggling Phillies could help kickstart their rebuilding effort and slim down their bloated payroll by letting Lee go out west, but as it stands it doesn't seem like Ruben Amaro Jr. wants to consider it.  "It's irrelevant. [Lee] is not going anywhere," said the GM.

It's not hard to understand why the Phillies would be reluctant to let Lee go.  The soon-to-be 34-year-old has been a bright spot for the club this year, posting a 3.73 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 18 starts.  While his performance may not put him near the top in Cy Young voting this year as it did in 2011, there's no denying that Lee is still going strong and could help anchor the Phillies' rotation in 2013 and beyond.

However, Lee's contract calls for him to make $21.5MM in 2012 and $25MM per season through 2015.  The committment could also extend through 2016 as he has a $27.5MM vesting option with a $12.5MM buyout.  The Phillies stretched their payroll to retain Cole Hamels to a six-year (or, potentially seven-year) extension and wiping Lee's salary from the books would help restore some flexibility.

 

Poll: Will Cliff Lee Be Claimed On Waivers?

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Cliff Lee is on waivers, so MLB teams must now decide whether to place a claim on the left-hander. For the majority of teams, the decision will be simple. Lee earns far too much for most general managers to make a claim and risk taking on his contract ($21.5MM in 2012, $25MM per season through 2015, and a $27.5MM vesting option for 2016 with a $12.5MM buyout). It’s complex enough for GMs to boost payroll by a few million with a summer acquisition, so a player with $95MM on his contract will be out of the question in most cases. 

But Lee could tempt a team or two. He continues to pitch effectively — seven innings per start, five times as many strikeouts as walks and a 3.73 ERA in a so-called down year — and there’s no better staring pitcher available. Maybe $95MM for three-plus seasons would be acceptable for a team with aggressive ownership, such as the Dodgers. 

If Lee does get claimed, the Phillies could pull him back off of waivers, work out a trade, or assign his contract to the team that wins the claim (the left-hander can block trades to 21 teams). If he goes unclaimed, the Phillies will be able to trade Lee with the same restrictions they’d encounter in July or in the offseason. How will it all unfold?

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