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Blue Jays Activate Nate Pearson, Designate Wilmer Font

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5:16pm: Toronto has designated Font for assignment, Nicholson-Smith tweets.

3:39pm: The Blue Jays are activating right-hander Nate Pearson from the 10-day injured list and removing fellow righty Wilmer Font from their roster, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was among those to report. It’s not clear what the Blue Jays will do with Font, but he’s out of minor league options, so they can’t send him down without possibly losing him.

Pearson, one of the game’s elite pitching prospects, hasn’t taken the mound since Aug. 18 because of elbow tightness. It’s obviously a relief for him and the team that he’s ready to return just over a month after that, as elbow problems often lead to far longer absences.

The 24-year-old Pearson made four appearances, all starts, for Toronto before going on the IL, but the club’s set to break him back in as a reliever, per Nicholson-Smith. Despite averaging 96.1 mph on his fastball, Pearson has struggled to a 6.51 ERA/7.65 FIP with 7.71 K/9 and 6.61 BB/9 in 16 1/3 innings this season.

Font, 30, has been a liability for Toronto in 16 1/3 innings this year. He owns a bloated 9.77 ERA (with a much more palatable 4.77 FIP) and 8.27 K/9 against 4.96 BB/9. Font has been victimized by a .448 batting average on balls in play against, though he also ranks toward the bottom of the league in several important Statcast categories.

Blue Jays Pitching Updates: Shoemaker, Pearson, Romano

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After a rough three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees, the Toronto Blue Jays have lost six in a row and fallen into the final qualifying wild card spot in the American League. Now trailing the Yankees by 5 games for second place, the Toronto/Buffalo Blue Jays are pretty well locked into their current spot in the standings, with Fangraphs giving them a 0.9% chance to re-take 2nd place from the Yankees, but a 91.5% chance to hold off the Mariners, Angels, and Tigers for the final playoff spot in the American League postseason bracket. Though they share a record with the Astros, Houston should secure 2nd place in the AL West. The Indians are currently the other wild card team, and they hold a 2 game lead over the Blue Jays with 8 games remaining.

That sets up Toronto for a first-round, 3-game series with the Rays, White Sox, or A’s, with Tampa holding the top spot if the season ended this minute. Hyun Jin Ryu would figure to start the first game of any playoff series, but the rest of the rotation is open to interpretation. With improving health, however, the Jays are on the cusp of adding a few more options to the stable.

Matt Shoemaker has thrown upwards of 60 pitches while preparing to return to the team, which he could do any day now, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Shoemaker has 5 starts under his belt in 2020 with an average of just over 5 innings per start and a 4.91 ERA/6.11 FIP. 8.8 K/9 is a strong mark for Shoemaker, but he’s been doomed by the long ball with 2.8 HR/9. In terms of the playoffs, Shoemaker’s role is up in the air, but he’ll return to the rotation to make a start against the Yankees on Monday, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca.

The Blue Jays remain hopeful that hard-throwing right-hander Nate Pearson will return before the end of the season as well. Should he return, the Jays will use him for 1 to 2 innings at a time, presumably because there’s not enough time to work him back to full-strength before the playoffs. Pitching Coach Pete Walker reports a return to normal velocity levels for Pearson, per Nicholson-Smith, who suggests Pearson could work in relief to Tom Hatch or Julian Merryweather.

Regardless, the Blue Jays look as though they’ll be piecing together the rotation game-by-game following Ryu. Given their heavy reliance on the pen, a return from Jordan Romano will certainly help. Romano should throw off a mound shortly, and the Blue Jays are hopeful to see him back in their bullpen for the playoffs, per Nicholson-Smith. Romano, 27, enjoyed a breakout 15 appearances before hitting the injured list with a right middle finger strain. He’s been worth 1.1 rWAR with a 1.23 ERA/3.12 FIP and 12.9 K/9 to 3.1 BB/9 while picking up 2 saves and 5 holds.

Injury Notes: Piscotty, Blue Jays, Dean, Pirates

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Injuries continue to mount for the Athletics, who could now face an absence for right fielder Stephen Piscotty. Per Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News, manager Bob Melvin revealed after Game 1 of yesterday’s doubleheader that Piscotty suffered a knee sprain when leaping in an attempt to rob a Jose Marmolejos home run. Piscotty will be further evaluated today, but Melvin added that Piscotty “had a pop” when he jumped. The 29-year-old Piscotty’s bat has gone cold this month, but he was one of Oakland’s best hitters in August, when he posted a .289/.323/.511 slash with five homers and five doubles on the month. His recent slump has dropped his season slash to .248/.289/.406, however. Mark Canha, who has already been spending time in right field, would likely be in line for more playing time should Piscotty require an IL stint.

A few more injury notes from around the game…

  • Blue Jays righties Nate Pearson and Matt Shoemaker will throw live batting practice this week and could return to the roster before season’s end, writes Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. Neither can be expected to build back up to a full starter’s workload at this point, however, so their likeliest roles would be shorter stints out of the ’pen. Putting Pearson in a short, multi-inning relief role or even an inning-at-a-time relief role would give Toronto a potentially formidable postseason weapon if he is indeed able to make it back from his current flexor strain. Shoemaker, meanwhile, is working back from shoulder inflammation that has sidelined him since Aug. 23.
  • The Cardinals placed outfielder Austin Dean on the 10-day injured list due to a right elbow strain, per a club announcement. His injury comes just three days after returning from the Covid-19 injured list. The three games in which the 26-year-old Dean were his only appearances on the season. He went 1-for-4 with a double and three walks in that short time. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Dean might have avoided the IL were the club not pressed for bullpen arms, so it seems there’s a chance Dean will return before season’s end. Acquired in a January trade with the Marlins, Dean hasn’t yet had the opportunity to prove himself with his new club. He’s just a .224/.274/.390 hitter in 318 MLB plate appearances, but he carries a much more robust .331/.398/.546 line in 640 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
  • Pirates righty Jameson Taillon chatted with reporters about the rehab of his second career Tommy John surgery and offered an optimistic outlook (link via MLB.com’s Adam Berry). Taillon is facing live hitters and said his elbow feels “amazing” at this point in the process. He’s worked with senior rehab coordinator A.J. Patrick, pitching coach Oscar Marin and bullpen coach Justin Meccage on what he believes to be a more mechanically sound delivery, Berry notes. Taillon acknowledged that changing the way he’s thrown since childhood is “tricky… But I came to the realization that two Tommy Johns kind of lets you know that what you’re doing isn’t working.” He also added that he’s seen his spin rate and spin efficiency increase — a reminder that pitchers are more data-focused than ever before in today’s game.
  • The Pirates placed righty Kyle Crick on the 10-day injured list with a lat strain, manager Derek Shelton announced to reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). The 27-year-old missed more than a month due to shoulder and lat discomfort earlier this season as well. Crick has pitched just 5 2/3 innings in 2020, and while he’s only surrendered one earned run with seven strikeouts, he’s given up another five unearned runs on seven hits and four walks. Crick hasn’t looked right in 2020, as he’s averaged just 91.3 mph on his four-seamer — a pitch that averaged 95.4 mph in 2019 and 96.4 mph in 2018. Crick was lights-out in 2018, but he’s struggled with control issues and now a velocity dip since that time. He still carries a 3.44 ERA and 4.32 FIP with 10.4 K/9 in 115 frames since coming over from the Giants in the Andrew McCutchen deal, but there are some visible red flags at the moment. Crick is controlled through 2023 and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.

American League Injury Updates: Piscotty, Cobb, Keuchel, Pearson

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Here are the latest updates on a few injury situations from around the American League …

  • The Athletics will go a few days without full participation from outfielder Stephen Piscotty, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle covers on Twitter. (He’s pinch running as we speak.) Thankfully, it seems there’s reason to hope he’ll bounce back quickly after receiving a cortisone shot to his balky wrist. Piscotty has turned in a useful but hardly world-beating .264/.308/.438 batting line on the season.
  • Orioles righty Alex Cobb is days away from a return, with outfielder Austin Hays seemingly not far behind, as skipper Brandon Hyde tells reporters including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). Cobb’s absence is as yet not fully explained; the quick turnaround could indicate that he had to step away owing to coronavirus protocols. Regardless, it’s good news that he’s expected to jump right back into active duty.
  • The White Sox don’t appear overly concerned with the health status of lefty Dallas Keuchel. He’ll plan to miss a start after taking an early exit from his last outing due to lower back issues, but that’s expected to be the extent of the missed time, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times and others mentioned on Twitter. Keuchel has thus far justified the South Siders’ faith in signing him, running up 53 1/3 innings of 2.19 ERA ball.
  • Exciting young Blue Jays hurler Nate Pearson is likely not going to build back to a full starter’s role, skipper Charlie Montoyo told reporters including MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm (Twitter links). That’s sensible for a variety of reasons. For one thing, there really isn’t much time to ramp him up. For another, it’s not clear that’d be the right role after Pearson ran into some early MLB struggles. The firmly contending Toronto outfit can certainly make use of Pearson in a relief role while still getting him valuable work at the game’s highest level.

Quick Hits: Nationals, Blue Jays, Pearson, Red Sox, Eovaldi, Hernandez

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The Washington Nationals have been unable to string together wins so far this season. After losing Anthony Rendon to free agency and Stephen Strasburg to injury, the reigning champs are in a weakened state. Newly-extended GM Mike Rizzo – who accomplished the rare feat of getting ejected from the club box on Sunday – didn’t see enough progress to make a move at the deadline, especially considering their limited scouting capabilities. Rizzo, a former Scouting Director in Arizona, values scouting input more than most of his contemporaries. In his words, per NBC Todd Dybas of NBC Sports, “So, the combination of where we were going into the trade deadline, performing on the field, and the fact I didn’t feel really comfortable about making trades kind of blind where you haven’t seen one of these prospects play in a year or so, impacted us in our decision-making.” Rizzo also didn’t want to give up the possibility of going on a run and getting back into the playoff race, so the Nats stood pat rather than deal upcoming free agents like Asdrubal Cabrera and Adam Eaton. While we’re here, let’s grab some injury updates…

  • Blue Jays’ top prospect Nate Pearson took a big step to returning to the mound yesterday…by returning to the mound. Pearson threw off a mound for the first time since going on the injured list on August 19th with elbow soreness, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). The 6’6″, 250-pound hurler is an intimidating presence on the hill when he’s pumping 96 mph heaters. After a couple of solid starts to begin his major-league career, Pearson struggled over his last two before going on the injured list. He’s currently the owner of a 6.61 ERA/7.62 FIP brought on largely by dodgy command (6.6 BB/9) and 5 home runs surrendered in 16 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays would love to give Pearson an opportunity to right the ship before the season runs out.
  • The Red Sox could get a couple of pitchers back from the injured list soon. Nathan Eovaldi threw a bullpen session on Sunday and could return as soon as this weekend in Tampa Bay, per The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey. Darwinzon Hernandez also has started throwing. He could be ready for a bullpen session on Tuesday. Hernandez, 23, made three scoreless appearances out of Boston’s bullpen before hitting the injured list with a shoulder strain. The Red Sox have patched together their pitching staff for most of the season. Eovaldi and Hernandez could bolster a staff that’s last in the majors by measure of fWAR (-1.4) – by a fair margin.

Pitching Notes: Hader, Bumgarner, Pearson, Dodgers, Beeks, Wright

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On a night in which White Sox ace Lucas Giolito fired the first no-hitter of 2020, let’s check in on several other notable pitchers…

  • The Brewers are “listening” to offers for star reliever Josh Hader, but it’s not likely the club will trade the 26-year-old left-hander before the Aug. 31 deadline, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link). Milwaukee was also willing to entertain proposals for Hader last winter, but it elected to retain him heading into this year – his first of four potential arbitration seasons. For a bargain price this season (a prorated $4.1MM), Hader has given the Brewers 9 1/3 scoreless, hitless innings with 13 strikeouts and five walks. He’s obviously not someone the Brewers are going to give up for anything less than a massive offer.
  • After throwing a 70-pitch bullpen session Sunday, Diamondbacks southpaw Madison Bumgarner could be closing in on a return from the injured list, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. Bumgarner has been on the IL since Aug. 9 with a mid-back strain, but he came out of his bullpen session unscathed, which manager Torey Lovullo called “very encouraging news.” The former Giant’s first season as a Diamondback has been anything but encouraging, though. After inking a five-year, $85MM contract in the offseason, Bumgarner has logged a 9.35 ERA/8.79 FIP with 6.75 K/9, 3.63 BB/9 and a 23.7 percent groundball rate in 17 1/3 innings. The 31-year-old averaged a career-worst 87.8 mph on his fastball during that four-start stretch, but Lovullo revealed Bumgarner’s “velo ticked up a little bit” during sim games.
  • Right-hander Nate Pearson, whom the Blue Jays placed on the IL on Aug. 19, has been diagnosed with a flexor strain, according to Scott Mitchell of TSN. He’s hoping to play catch this weekend, Mitchell reports, though it remains unclear if the rookie will return in 2020. Pearson struggled to a 6.61 ERA/7.60 FIP with 7.71 K/9 and 6.61 BB/9 over four starts and 16 1/3 frames before going on the shelf.
  • Dodgers righty Joe Kelly has been on the IL since Aug. 10 with shoulder inflammation, and a return isn’t imminent for the reliever. Manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday (via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com) that Kelly remains “a ways away” from rejoining the Dodgers. When Kelly does come back, he’ll have to serve a five-game suspension stemming from a July 28 dustup with the Astros. Meanwhile, Dodgers lefty Alex Wood won’t come off the IL before the end of the month, Gurnick tweets. Wood, who’s also dealing with shoulder inflammation, has only made one appearance this year (on July 25).
  • The Rays’ injury-laden pitching staff may have lost yet another hurler Tuesday, when southpaw Jalen Beeks left their game with an elbow/forearm issue. Manager Kevin Cash didn’t come off as optimistic afterward, saying (via Juan Toribio of MLB.com), “It sounded similar to Kitt, but we don’t know anything yet.” Cash was referring to righty Andrew Kittredge, who went on the 45-day IL on Aug. 12 with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament. A similar fate would be a season-ender for Beeks, who has been terrific in 2020. The 27-year-old has notched a 3.26 ERA and a much more impressive 1.74 FIP with 12.1 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9 across 19 1/3 innings.
  • Veteran knuckleballer Steven Wright hasn’t taken a major league mound since July 13, 2019, but the former Red Sox righty informed Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he’s not ready to call it a career. “I just don’t want to sit back in a few years and wish I had tried it,” said the soon-to-be 36-year-old Wright, who threw 35 pitches from a mound last week and told Abraham, “I’m throwing two bullpens a week and I’m feeling healthy for the first time since 2016.” Wright was an All-Star that year, but he then faced knee problems, Tommy John surgery, a performance-enhancing drugs suspension and an arrest on domestic violence charges (which led to a 15-game ban) during the ensuing seasons.

Nate Pearson Undergoes MRI For Elbow Injury

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Aug. 20: Pearson underwent an MRI, general manager Ross Atkins tells reporters (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). The team is “not initially overly concerned,” per Atkins. They’ll get official results and provide additional information later today.

Aug. 19: In an ominous bit of injury news, the Blue Jays have placed top pitching prospect Nate Pearson on the 10-day injured list due to “tightness” in his right elbow, manager Charlie Montoyo tells reporters (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Pearson, who alerted the Jays to some discomfort following last night’s start, is being sent for some testing but did say he’s feeling better this morning.

Lauded as one of the game’s top 10 overall prospects entering the year, Pearson’s debut effort was excellent. The righty flashed a power fastball and hurled five shutout frames against the Nationals, punching out five batters along the way. Things have been rough since that time, though, particularly in his two most recent outings. Pearson has yielded a dozen earned runs with more walks (10) than strikeouts (9) in 11 1/3 frames — all while serving up a whopping five long balls. Pearson seemed to avoid his fastball last night, throwing it just 40 percent of the time after leaning on it at a 53 percent clip through his first three outings.

The hope for both the Jays and baseball fans in general, of course, is that Pearson is dealing with a minor ailment and can quickly bounce back to health. He’s missed time as a prospect, but never due to elbow or shoulder woes. (An intercostal strain and fractured forearm have previously suppressed his workloads.) Scouts seem to agree that the 23-year-old Pearson carries legitimate top-of-the-rotation talent, and he’s viewed as a critical core component for an up-and-coming Jays club.

For the time being, Jacob Waguespack is up from the alternate training site to take Pearson’s spot on the roster. The Jays are will also activate righty Trent Thornton off the injured list to make a start in tomorrow’s doubleheader. That pair gives the team some rotation depth, and the Jays also have Sean Reid-Foley, T.J. Zeuch, Thomas Pannone and Sam Gaviglio at their alternate site.

Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson To Debut July 29

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JULY 27, 8:50pm: Montoyo confirmed that Pearson will debut Wednesday, per Davidi.

3:35pm: Pearson is indeed still scheduled for his debut on Wednesday, Campbell tweets. Manager Charlie Montoyo still wasn’t ready to announce a move, but did acknowledge the possibility of a call-up, as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi tweets.

JULY 22: The Blue Jays plan to activate standout pitching prospect Nate Pearson on July 29, Jamie Campbell of Sportsnet reports. Pearson is not on the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster, which is currently full.

Toronto will gain an extra year of control over Pearson by keeping him off its roster during the first week of its season. So, considering the league’s rules on service time, it’s no surprise that the team will open its schedule without the 23-year-old right-hander. But Pearson may wind up as a game-changing addition to the Blue Jays’ roster when he does make his debut, and perhaps someone who could challenge for American League Rookie of the Year honors.

The flamethrowing Pearson joined Toronto as the 28th overall pick in the 2017 draft and has proven himself an elite farmhand since then (MLB.com ranks him first in the team’s system and No. 8 in the sport, for instance). Pearson made his debut in Triple-A last year with 18 innings of 3.00 ERA ball, but he spent most of his season in Double-A, recording a terrific 2.59 ERA/2.90 FIP with 9.91 K/9 and 3.02 BB/9 over 62 2/3 frames. Pearson also acquitted himself well during spring training this year, as he held hitters to a paltry .194 batting average and totaled 16 strikeouts against five walks in 10 2/3 innings before the sport shut down.

If Pearson does come up and make a serious impact in 2020, Toronto could have an enviable duo atop its rotation with him and left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu – an $80MM offseason pickup who finished as the National League Cy Young runner-up as a Dodger in 2019. Until Pearson makes his first start and Chase Anderson returns from the injured list, though, the Blue Jays appear likely to fill out their rotation with Tanner Roark, Matt Shoemaker, Trent Thornton and Ryan Borucki behind Ryu.

Blue Jays Set Opening Day Roster

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The Blue Jays announced their Opening Day, 30-man roster this morning. Left-hander Brian Moran and right-hander A.J. Cole were both selected to the 40-man roster and will make the club. Toronto also placed righty Chase Anderson on the 10-day IL (retroactive to July 20) with an oblique strain and opted to carry infielder Santiago Espinal, lefty Anthony Kay and right-handers Thomas Hatch and Jacob Waguespack.

Notably absent is right-hander Nate Pearson, one of the game’s elite pitching prospects. He’s on the team’s three-man taxi squad (along with southpaw Ryan Borucki and catcher Caleb Joseph) but won’t accrue service time in that role. He’ll reportedly be called up next week, when the Jays will be able to promote him while extending their club control of him for an additional season (as has long been expected).

Moran, 31, is the older brother of Pirates third baseman Colin Moran. He made his big league debut at 30 years of age with the Marlins last season, pitching 6 1/3 innings while yielding three runs with a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio. A seventh-round pick in 2009, Moran has had quite the odyssey to the Majors, twice taking to the independent circuit as a showcase to get back into affiliated ball. But he carries a career 3.67 ERA with 11.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 176 1/3 Triple-A frames and will now get his second opportunity in the Majors.

Cole, 28, is a former top prospect who’s yet to find his footing despite multiple MLB chances. He’s seen action with three teams in parts of five seasons but posted a pedestrian 4.86 ERA and 5.03 FIP in 174 innings. Cole had some success both with the Nats in 2017 and the Indians last year, logging identical 3.81 ERAs in both years. He’s averaged better than a strikeout per frame in the big leagues but has also surrendered an average of 1.8 homers per nine innings pitched.

The Jays don’t need to make any corresponding transactions to add Moran and Cole to the 40-man. The team recently placed Breyvic Valera on the restricted list after he was unable to leave his native Venezuela and report to Jays Summer Camp in Toronto. The club also has Brandon Drury, Jonathan Davis, Wilmer Font and Elvis Luciano on the Covid-19 IL, and none of the four will count against the team’s 40-man roster while on that list.

The Jays Turned A Free Agent Whiff Into An Elite Pitching Prospect

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The 2016 season was a pivotal year for the Blue Jays. Fresh off an ALCS loss to the Royals in 2015, the Jays entered the year with reigning MVP Josh Donaldson set to play out his age-30 campaign and a series of notable free agents, headlined by Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. They’d surrendered two MLB-ready arms — Daniel Norris and Matthew Boyd — for a David Price rental the prior summer and parted with another top pitching prospect (Jeff Hoffman) to escape their commitment to the declining Jose Reyes and swap him out for Troy Tulowitzki. Some of the dreaded “closing window” narratives were surrounding the club, and the Jays were clearly in win-now mode.

Toronto again made the playoffs, again won a Division Series matchup over the Rangers … and again fell to an AL Central club in the League Championship Series — this time the Indians. The offseason came around, and Toronto made issued a pair of no-brainer qualifying offers to Bautista and Encarnacion, who were two of the top bats on that winter’s market.

From the begining, Encarnacion seemed to be the bigger target. Bautista had dropped some jaws in Spring 2016 when talking about his asking price on a long-term deal, but Encarnacion was younger and seemingly more affordable. Toronto was aggressive early in the winter, reportedly putting forth a four-year offer that carried in the vicinity of $80MM of guaranteed money. There were some expectations that winter that Encarnacion could best that mark — we at MLBTR pegged him for four years at a slightly higher annual rate — and his camp seemed to prefer to explore the market before taking that offer. That decision blew up in Encarnacion’s face, though, as Toronto pivoted almost instantly and signed Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33MM deal. By Nov. 18, it appeared Encarnacion had been replaced.

There were still some rumors about a potential reunion even after Morales was signed, but it never seemed likely that the Jays would commit to Morales at DH and Encarnacion at first base — tying up long-term dollars in a pair of sluggers best suited for DH work. Encarnacion drew varying levels of interest from the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers, but in the end, his market bizarrely came down to a bidding war between two of the game’s smaller-payroll clubs: the Athletics and the Indians.

Oakland likely saw a chance to add a premium bat at an affordable rate. Encarnacion’s market had collapsed to the point where he was reportedly mulling a shorter offer with a roughly $25MM annual value (presumably a two-year deal) with the A’s. The Indians, fresh off a World Series loss, were in go-for-it mode with extra cash thanks to that deep postseason run. Encarnacion signed a three-year, $60MM deal with Cleveland that contained a fourth-year option which would get him to the $80MM mark he’d previously passed up.

The Jays took some heat from the deal both among media pundits and their fans. Encarnacion was the clear better player and ultimately cost less than twice what Toronto gave Morales. And from an on-field perspective, those criticisms were 100 percent valid. Over the first two years of each player’s three-year pact, here’s how they performed:

  • Morales: .249/.318/.442, 49 home runs, 40 doubles in 1079 plate appearances (103 OPS+, 102 wRC+; 0.8 bWAR, -0.4 fWAR)
  • Encarnacion: .252/.358/.490, 70 home runs, 36 doubles, two triples in 1248 PAs (123 OPS+, 123 wRC+; 4.7 bWAR, 3.3 fWAR)

Neither one played out the third year of his contract with the team that signed him. Morales was traded to the Athletics on the eve of Opening Day 2019, and Encarnacion had been moved to the Mariners in a complex three-team deal that sent Carlos Santana back to Cleveland with Yandy Diaz and others landing in Tampa Bay.

Many onlookers will say that the Encarnacion camp misread the market after their initial talks with teams. Some would argue that it was the Jays who misread things when they pivoted to Morales so quickly. You can argue that both parties failed to properly evaluate the free-agent landscape.

Encarnacion got his $60MM and then signed for another $12MM with the White Sox this winter, so he ultimately didn’t fall much shy of that reported four-year, $80MM sum. With the benefit of hindsight, it looks like the Jays came away with the short end of the stick — at least until you consider the compensatory draft pick they netted when Cleveland inked Encarnacion. Because the guarantee was greater than $50MM, the Jays’ comp pick landed between Round 1 and Competitive Balance Round A. That pick proved to be No. 28 overall, which Toronto used to select right-hander Nate Pearson.

Not only is Pearson now the runaway top Blue Jays’ prospect — he’s one of the best pitching prospects on the planet. The 23-year-old ranks among the 10 best prospects in baseball at Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs, drawing considerable praise for his blistering triple-digit heater and a deep arsenal of secondary pitches. When ranking Pearson as baseball’s No. 8 overall prospect this winter, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote that he’s personally seen Pearson’s slider climb as high as 95 mph, adding that the pitch generally sits in the low 90s. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com write that Pearson has “as high a ceiling as any pitching prospect in the game.”

It’s true that Pearson has yet to demonstrate the ability to make 30 starts in a season, although that’s due largely to a fractured forearm sustained when he was hit by a comeback line drive. Pitchers who throw this hard will always give some onlookers a red flag, and Pearson did have a screw put into his right elbow during high school. He was healthy in junior college, though, and the Jays diligently kept his innings count down in 2019 after he threw just 22 innings in 2018. Pearson reached 101 2/3 frames last year, spinning a dominant 2.30 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9 and a ground-ball rate near 40 percent. He also topped out at Triple-A in his first full, healthy pro season and is widely expected to make his MLB debut in 2020.

Not every draft pick is guaranteed to be a hit, as evidenced by the Jays’ actual, organic first-round pick in the same 2017 draft that produced Pearson. Shortstop Logan Warmoth, selected out of UNC six picks prior to Pearson, has managed a .255/.332/.346 batting line in 947 pro plate appearances. He was a high-end draft prospect but doesn’t currently rank inside Toronto’s top 30 farmhands at MLB.com or their Top 38 at FanGraphs. Not exactly ideal for a recent first-rounder.

Luckily for the Jays, Encarnacion’s decision not to take their four-year offer — which would’ve run through the 2020 season — both saved them some cash and gave them a second bite at the first-round apple in 2017. And thanks to their scouting department’s decision to take a chance on a towering, flamethrowing righty in spite of a high school elbow scare, the Jays have a potential ace in the making who is on the cusp of reaching the big leagues.

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