Astros Notes: Brown, Hader, Bullpen
The Astros provided an update on injured ace Hunter Brown on Tuesday, noting that the righty has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 shoulder strain. The club said he’ll be shut down from throwing for a few weeks.
Manager Joe Espada provided a little more specificity in his pregame media session with the Houston beat (link via Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). The skipper said Brown would be reevaluated in two weeks. Espada and GM Dana Brown stressed that there’s nothing structurally amiss and that the issue is muscular.
That’s a relief, but it’s still trending towards more than a monthlong absence. Even if Brown is able to resume throwing two weeks from now, he’ll need to recover from a few bullpen and live batting practice sessions. A multi-week shutdown is going to require one or two minor league rehab starts as well.
The Astros are sticking with their plan to move to a six-man rotation after tomorrow’s off day. They’ll play on 13 straight days beginning this weekend. The six-man staff will keep Tatsuya Imai on a weekly schedule and allow them to keep an eye on workloads for their back-end arms.
Imai joins Mike Burrows, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. in the top four of Espada’s rotation. Cody Bolton made a spot start on Monday against the Rockies, stepping into Brown’s schedule when the latter was placed on the injured list over the weekend. Bolton could get continued run out of the rotation. Spencer Arrighetti is working out of the Triple-A rotation. Ryan Weiss, AJ Blubaugh, and Kai-Wei Teng are all pitching in relief but have starting backgrounds.
Espada provided a few more encouraging updates on rehabbing pitchers this evening (relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic). The most notable is that closer Josh Hader, out all season with biceps tendinitis, is expected to face hitters for the first time next week. Depth starter Nate Pearson will throw a two-inning simulated game this weekend.
Houston’s bullpen has been shaky in Hader’s absence. Fill-in closer Bryan Abreu has allowed at least one run in each of his first four appearances. Abreu has only successfully locked down one of his three save opportunities this year. That came with a three-run lead and still required him to rebound from a Roman Anthony home run. Abreu took the loss in his most recent outing, giving up a walk-off three-run homer to Brent Rooker in the tenth inning on Sunday.
Bryan King and Steven Okert give the Astros a pair of quality left-handers. Abreu has a track record as a high-end setup man. Even if he gets on track, he’s a better fit earlier in games as a leverage arm given the Astros’ lack of established righty relievers. Blubaugh has been pushed up the bullpen hierarchy early in his big league career as a result.
Astros Finalize Opening Day Roster
The Astros finalized their Opening Day roster, most notably announcing that shortstop Jeremy Pena will avoid a season-opening trip to the injured list. Catcher César Salazar was designated for assignment, clearing a 40-man roster spot for Christian Vázquez, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Sugar Land. Houston also selected right-hander Christian Roa‘s contract and opened a 40-man spot by placing lefty Brandon Walter on the 60-day IL while he recovers from UCL surgery. Houston also optioned outfielder Zach Cole to Triple-A, while prospect Brice Matthews makes the cut.
Outfielder Zach Dezenzo will open the season on the 10-day IL due to a right elbow sprain. Righty Ronel Blanco (recovering from Tommy John surgery), left-hander Josh Hader (biceps tendinitis), righty Enyel De Los Santos (right knee strain), lefty Bennett Sousa (oblique strain), right-hander Nate Pearson (recovering from elbow surgery) and right-hander Hayden Wesneski (recovering from Tommy John surgery) are all opening the year on the 15-day IL. Blanco and Wesneski will be 60-day IL candidates whenever Houston next needs a 40-man roster spot.
Pena’s status was up in the air after he suffered a fracture on the tip of his finger while fielding a grounder during an exhibition contest earlier this spring. He resumed hitting earlier this week, however, and has been deemed healthy enough to break camp with the club.
Vázquez’s selection to the big league roster was already known, as was the fact that Salazar wouldn’t make the team. Today’s DFA doesn’t necessarily mean that the ‘Stros won’t be able to find a trade partner. He can still be swapped out to another club within the next five days if another team is willing to put him on its 40-man roster.
Salazar, 30, has 67 MLB plate appearances to his name and has batted .232/.318/.268. He spent the bulk of the 2025 season in Triple-A, where he hit .213/.353/.353. He’s regarded as a solid defender but not the same extent as the veteran Vázquez, so Houston — as they’ve done in the past with Martin Maldonado — will opt for a plus defender as their backup catcher even if it means rostering one of the lightest-hitting players in the game.
Roa, 26, made his MLB debut with Miami last season and tossed three shutout innings. He’s a former Reds and Marlins farmhand who had a dominant spring with Houston after signing a minor league deal in December. He tossed 9 2/3 innings of one-run ball during Grapefruit League play and punched out 36% of his opponents without issuing a walk. Between that and last year’s 2.83 ERA in 60 1/3 Triple-A frames, he could be a nice under-the-radar pickup for the Astros.
Cole looked to be in strong position to make the club entering camp, but Houston reacquired Joey Loperfido to give them another lefty option in the outfield. Cole slashed .200/.340/.400 in 50 spring plate appearances, and the alarming contact issues that plagued him last year weren’t any better in March. After going down on strikes in 35% of his minor league plate appearances and 38.5% of his big league plate appearances in 2025, Cole punched out in 20 of his 50 turns at the plate this spring (40%).
Cole has obvious power and speed but will need to make more contact if he’s to carve out a a lasting role. Add in a handful of lefty opponents for Houston early in the season, and the right-handed-hitting Matthews will get the nod to begin the year. Matthews is a former first-round pick who slashed .250/.400/.417 this spring. He struggled in a brief MLB debut last year but hit .260/.371/.458 in Triple-A. While Matthews was drafted as a shortstop, the Astros’ glut of infielders has pushed him into outfield duty.
Astros Notes: Outfield, Rotation, Pearson
The Astros spent most of the offseason looking to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. That hasn’t materialized with three weeks to go before the start of the regular season. General manager Dana Brown suggested the team was still hopeful of making such an acquisition after swapping Jesús Sánchez to Toronto for Joey Loperfido in the middle of February.
An external addition before Opening Day becomes less likely with every day that passes. Nevertheless, manager Joe Espada declined to name starters at any of the three outfield positions over the weekend (link via Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle).
“I’m not ready to say that,” Espada said. “Obviously, we know what Jake Meyers can do in center, I feel really good about that. I feel really good about what Cam Smith can do in right. Zach Cole and the rest of those guys can play all three. But when it comes to who’s in there day one, not there yet.”
On paper, Meyers feels like the safest bet to play every day. He’s a plus defender in center field and is coming off his best season at the plate. The 29-year-old hit .292/.354/.373 with 16 stolen bases and a career-low 17.6% strikeout rate. A right calf strain bothered him during the second half and kept him to just under 400 plate appearances.
Cole and Smith are much less established. The former debuted in September and popped four home runs in his first 15 games. He also struck out 20 times in 52 plate appearances after fanning at a 35% clip in Triple-A. It’s tough to see that profile working over a larger sample unless he makes far more consistent contact.
Smith, a top prospect acquired in the Kyle Tucker trade, hit well for a few months before his numbers cratered in the second half. Smith’s upper minors experience before his promotion consisted of five games at Double-A. It’s impressive that he was able to keep his head above water in the big leagues with such little work against higher level pitching, but he should probably open this season in Triple-A. That’d be easier for the Astros to sort out if they’re able to acquire a veteran corner outfield bat.
Along with the outfield, the back end of the rotation has some uncertainty. Houston added a pair of mid-rotation hopefuls in Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows to slot behind Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier. The Astros are planning to begin the season with a six-man rotation. They only have two scheduled off days within the first 28 days. Most teams that sign a high-profile pitcher from Japan also prefer to use a six-man rotation to match the once a week schedule on which NPB starters are used.
The Astros took one-year fliers on Ryan Weiss and Nate Pearson to compete with internal options Lance McCullers Jr., AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti and Jason Alexander for the final two jobs. Pearson is out of options and needs to be on the MLB roster in some capacity or exposed to waivers. It looks like he’ll be forced to begin the season on the 15-day injured list, however.
Espada said this afternoon that Pearson has slowed down his throwing program due to elbow soreness (relayed by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Pearson, who underwent a cleanup surgery on his elbow over the offseason, had been throwing bullpen sessions. He hasn’t gotten into a Grapefruit League game.
Astros Sign Nate Pearson
October 21: Houston officially announced their one-year deal with Pearson on Tuesday. According to The Associated Press, the deal includes $150K in incentives. He’d earn $50K for reaching 50 innings and $50K apiece at 20 and 25 starts.
October 17: The Astros are in agreement with right-hander Nate Pearson on a one-year, $1.35MM guarantee, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Pearson, a client of Excel Sports Management, is expected to work as a starter. The deal also includes performance bonuses.
Pearson will get the opportunity to pitch out of the rotation for the first time since his brief MLB debut in 2020. The hard-throwing righty made four starts as a rookie with Toronto. He’s made 118 appearances over the past five seasons, and all but two have been out of the bullpen. Pearson spent the last season and a half with the Cubs. He came to Chicago in 2024 via a midseason trade from Toronto.
Pearson made 11 appearances with the Cubs this past season. He broke camp with the team, but gave up 10 earned runs over his first 8 2/3 innings and soon found himself back at Triple-A. Pearson made it back up for a weekend in June, only to be hammered for five earned runs in his lone appearance. His final stint with the big-league club would be two solid outings in August, when he tossed four scoreless innings. In total, Pearson posted a 9.20 ERA across 14 2/3 MLB innings, including an untenable 7:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Chicago released Pearson during the final week of the regular season.
A major-league agreement for Pearson might seem surprising given his recent output at the highest level, but his results were much better at Triple-A Iowa. Pearson recorded a 2.22 ERA with a stellar 30.6% K% across 38 minor-league outings. Free passes remained a problem (12.9% walk rate), but Triple-A batters hit just .170 against Pearson.
Houston is likely betting on pedigree here. Pearson was a first-round selection for Toronto back in 2017. His development was delayed by a broken arm and an oblique injury in 2018, but he broke through with a tremendous 2019 season in the minors. Pearson tossed 101 2/3 innings across three levels, notching a 2.30 ERA with a 30.7% strikeout rate over 25 starts. He entered the 2020 campaign as a top 10 overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.
Pearson made five appearances with the Blue Jays in the shortened 2020 season before an elbow injury cut his year short. Injuries would continue to derail him moving forward. A litany of health issues capped Pearson at 45 2/3 innings in 2021 and 30 2/3 frames in 2022. He stayed healthy for 2023 and 2024, working exclusively as a reliever with the Blue Jays before being dealt to Chicago.
Houston has some uncertainty in the rotation heading into 2026. Framber Valdez is a free agent. The club lost Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, and Brandon Walter to Tommy John surgery. Spencer Arrighetti‘s season ended prematurely due to elbow concerns. Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. were healthy to close the season, but have dealt with injuries of their own. Jason Alexander went from depth option to rotation mainstay after getting scooped up as a waiver claim. Hunter Brown is the only rock-solid member of the staff at the moment. Pearson comes with plenty of his own question marks, but the risk is minimal. He could return to a bullpen role if starting doesn’t work out.
Image courtesy of Allan Henry, Imagn Images.
Cubs Release Nate Pearson
The Cubs have released right-handed reliever Nate Pearson, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. The club had designated him for assignment on Saturday. He has made 11 appearances at the big-league level in 2025, most recently on August 8, before being optioned to Triple-A Iowa on August 12, where he has pitched since. He will now enter free agency with an eye toward a minor-league deal for 2026.
Pearson, 29, has not had much success in the majors this year, pitching to a 9.20 ERA in his 14 2/3 innings with the Cubs. In that small sample, he struck out just seven hitters while issuing 10 free passes and surrendering 22 hits. In his career, Pearson owns a 5.17 ERA over 156 2/3 innings with a more serviceable 23.1% strikeout rate and a 10.7% walk rate. The former first-round draft pick debuted in 2020 for the Blue Jays and made a total of 93 appearances for them from 2020-24, followed by 30 appearances with the Cubs.
The righty has fared much better in the minors this year. In 38 appearances with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in Iowa, Pearson has pitched to a 2.22 ERA with 57 strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings. He still walked 24 batters, although the strikeouts may be appealing to clubs looking for relief depth in the offseason. Pearson has just over four years of service time and two years of arbitration control remaining. He might garner interest as a reclamation project, especially if his new club can harness the swing-and-miss potential while cutting back on the free passes.
Cubs Designate Nate Pearson For Assignment
The Cubs designated Nate Pearson for assignment, according to the right-hander’s official MLB.com profile page. The move clears a 40-man roster spot for right-hander Eli Morgan, who was activated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Iowa.
Pearson first joined the Cubs in a trade from the Blue Jays at the 2024 deadline, and he seemed to benefit from the change of scenery. After posting a 5.63 ERA in 40 innings for Toronto prior to the deal, Pearson stabilized things and posted a 2.73 ERA across 26 1/3 innings for the Cubs. Even though the secondary metrics had a less-favorable view of Pearson’s performance, it looked like he had earned himself a spot in Chicago’s bullpen picture for 2025.
However, Pearson got off to a rocky start and found himself optioned back to Triple-A by the middle of April. He has been recalled and optioned down a couple of more times since, with the end result of an ugly 9.20 ERA and more walks (10) than strikeouts (seven) over 14 2/3 innings in the Show. Pearson’s numbers in Iowa have been considerably better, yet even his 2.22 ERA and 30.6% strikeout rate over 44 2/3 Triple-A frames have come with the red flag of a 12.9% walk rate.
Walks have been a persistent issue throughout Pearson’s career, and his seemingly improved control in 2024 may have proven to be a mirage based on his 2025 numbers. He has also had a lot of trouble keeping the ball in the yard, as Pearson has allowed 28 home runs over his 156 2/3 career innings in the majors. Formerly one of baseball’s top pitching prospects during his time in the Jays’ farm system, Pearson battled injuries while in the minors, and a move to relief pitching still hasn’t allowed him to find a niche on a Major League roster.
Pearson has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, so between that team control and his past prospect pedigree, there is a chance he might get claimed as a reclamation project. Since the 29-year-old has more than three years of MLB service time, he has the right to elect free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A, assuming he clears waivers. It seems probable that the Cubs might just release Pearson if he clears waivers — since he is a clear non-tender candidate anyway, an early release would give Pearson an early jump on the offseason free agent market.
Morgan posted a 12.27 ERA over 7 1/3 innings before his season was all but erased by an inflamed ulnar nerve in his throwing arm. The righty’s last MLB appearance was on April 14, and a setback during a minor league rehab assignment in June pushed his clock back even further.
Finally returning to the mound in August, Morgan has looked quite sharp in posting a 1.69 ERA over 10 2/3 innings with the Cubs’ high-A and Triple-A affiliates. With his 30-day rehab window over, he is now back on the 40-man roster and continuing his rehab work in Iowa, and it is unclear if he might get another look in the majors before 2025 is over. Given his long layoff, it seems unlikely that Morgan would factor into Chicago’s playoff roster plans unless other pitchers get hurt.
Cubs Release Jon Berti
Today: The Cubs released Berti today, according to his transaction log on MLB.com. Presumably, the veteran infielder cleared waivers and, considering he has enough service time to reject an outright with forfeiting any salary, the club chose just to grant him his release instead. He is now a free agent.
August 12: The Cubs announced today that catcher Miguel Amaya and right-hander Javier Assad have both been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. In corresponding active roster moves, the Cubs have optioned right-hander Nate Pearson to Triple-A and designated infielder Jon Berti for assignment. The 40-man roster had one vacancy, with Berti’s DFA clearing another.
Berti, 35, signed with the Cubs in the offseason. He has long been a scrappy and versatile utility player in the bigs, playing almost every position on the diamond while stealing bases and often producing offense around league average.
The Cubs came into the year with some uncertainty at third base and they threw a few things at the wall there. They traded Isaac Paredes to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker deal, opening a path for prospect Matt Shaw to earn the job. Just in case Shaw didn’t hit the ground running, they had some backup plans. They acquired Vidal Bruján, took Gage Workman in the Rule 5 draft, in addition to signing Justin Turner and Berti.
Most of those moves didn’t work out well, including Berti. He has hit just .210/.262/.230 in his 107 plate appearances this year. He hung around the roster as Shaw and other guys struggled. Workman was jettisoned long ago. More recently, Shaw has started to click and the Cubs also added Willi Castro ahead of the deadline. That bumped out Bruján a couple of weeks back and now Berti loses his roster spot as well.
With the trade deadline having passed, the Cubs will have to put Berti on waivers. Given his struggles and his salary, he won’t be claimed. He has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. It’s possible the Cubs skip that formality and simply release him.
At that point, any club could sign Berti and would only have to pay him the prorated portion of the $760K league minimum for any time spent on the roster. That amount would be subtracted from what the Cubs pay. It’s possible he garners interest at that point from a club looking to bolster its bench. Berti came into this year with 97 steals, a .259/.337/.366 line and 95 wRC+ while playing everywhere except catcher and first base.
Without Berti, the Cubs are going with a three-catcher setup. While Amaya has been on the IL, Carson Kelly has been the primary backstop, backed up by Reese McGuire. No one in that trio can be optioned to the minors, so the Cubs are keeping all three of them, at least for now.
Assad’s return seemingly shuffles the rotation a bit. Assad is listed as tonight’s probable starter. Ben Brown was previously in that spot, so it seems he will slide back into a long relief role. Assad posted a 3.73 earned run average over 29 starts for the Cubs last year. He hasn’t been able to build on that here in 2025, as he suffered an oblique strain during spring training and then re-aggravated that strain during the season. He’ll be making his season debut north of the border tonight as the Cubs are in Toronto to face the Blue Jays.
Photo courtesy of Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images
Cubs Select Michael Fulmer
The Cubs announced today that they have selected the contract of right-hander Michael Fulmer. Fellow right-hander Nate Pearson has been optioned to Triple-A Iowa as the corresponding active roster move. The 40-man roster had a vacancy but is now full.
Fulmer pitched briefly with the Red Sox earlier this year but was cut loose after yielding three runs in just 2 2/3 innings. That marked the end of what was a relatively long match between the two parties. The 2016 American League Rookie of the Year (as a starter with the Tigers) had signed a two-year minor league contract with Boston and spent the entire 2024 season and early 2025 season rehabbing with Boston’s staff. He signed with the Cubs on a minor league pact in late April.
That looks to have been a potentially nice pickup for the Cubs, who are no stranger to Fulmer after he spent the 2023 season in Chicago’s bullpen. So far in his second stint with the Cubs, Fulmer has pitched 24 1/3 Triple-A frames with a tidy 2.96 ERA. He’s fanned a gaudy 32% of his opponents but also issued walks at an inflated 11% clip. Fulmer’s heater isn’t close to the 95.5 mph it averaged at peak, but he saw a modest bump from 92.4 mph during his time with the Red Sox to 92.9 mph with the Cubs’ affiliate in Iowa.
As tends to be the case, the Cubs are patching their bullpen together on the fly this year. Porter Hodge, who had a nice rookie showing in 2024, has missed more than a month due to an oblique strain. Ryan Pressly, the Cubs’ primary offseason acquisition in the bullpen, was shaky early before being absolute torpedoed for eight earned runs without recording an out in a May 6 drubbing at the hands of the Giants. He’s still working to recover from that damage, but Pressly rattled off 15 straight scoreless innings with a 14-to-3 K/BB ratio thereafter. He served up two earned runs in his most recent appearance — his first runs allowed since that calamitous Giants appearance.
The rest of the bullpen consists of journeymen and reclamation projects. Chicago currently has Drew Pomeranz, Chris Flexen, Brad Keller, Ryan Brasier and Caleb Thielbar in the bullpen — all 30-something veterans on one-year deals. (Keller will turn 30 next month.) The lone exception is young Daniel Palencia, who’s been handling save situations recently and looks to be handling the job well. He’s picked up seven saves while posting a 1.93 ERA in 28 frames this year. That includes a 1.46 ERA and 14-to-3 K/BB ratio in 12 1/3 innings since being moved into the ninth inning.
Fulmer will join that cast of 30-something veterans and hope he can find similar success to Keller, Pomeranz, Thielbar, Flexen and Brasier — all of whom improbably sport ERAs of 2.20 or better.
Cubs Option Matt Shaw
The Cubs have optioned third baseman Matt Shaw to Triple-A Iowa, reports Keith Law of The Athletic. That’s part of a larger slate of moves, relayed by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Infielder Vidal Bruján has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. On the pitching side, the club recalled left-hander Luke Little and right-hander Daniel Palencia. To make room for those two, righty Nate Pearson has been optioned to Iowa as well, while righty Eli Morgan has been placed on the 15-day IL due to an elbow impingement.
Shaw, 23, came into the season as one of the top prospects in the league. The club clearly believed he was worthy of a shot at the majors, as they traded Isaac Paredes to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker deal in the offseason. That didn’t guarantee Shaw a spot on the Opening Day roster but it opened a door for him, which he walked through. He cracked the club’s roster ahead of the Tokyo Series and has been serving as their regular third baseman up until this point.
The results have been mixed. Across his 68 plate appearances thus far, he has drawn a walk in 14.7% of them, but he’s also been struck out at a 26.5% clip. He has a tepid .172/.294/.241 batting line, though with a .231 batting average on balls in play. That number is on the unlucky side but Shaw hasn’t been doing himself many favors in terms of putting good wood on the ball. His 82.7 mile per hour average exit velocity in the second percentile of qualified MLB hitters, per Statcast. His hard-hit rate is in the fifth percentile, his bat speed in the tenth and his barrel rate 15th. His defense has also been a bit of a question mark. In 141 innings at third base thus far, he already has four errors.
All of that is surely less than the Cubs were hoping for, as he destroyed minor league pitching. After getting selected with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Shaw got into 159 minor league games between that draft selection and the end of the 2024 season. He had solid walk and strikeout rates of 10.2% and 17.3% respectively while slashing .303/.384/.522 for a 157 wRC+. 35 of those games were at the Triple-A level last year and he hit .298/.395/.534 in those, building the case that he was ready for a major league debut.
Shaw is yet another example of a top prospect who didn’t immediately click at the major league level. While some may jump to declare Shaw a “bust”, this sort of thing is actually quite common. A classic example is Mike Trout, who hit .220/.281/.390 in his first 135 plate appearances back in 2011. It can’t be assumed that a prospect will immediately succeed when reaching the majors for the first time, nor does it mean that they won’t ever find success down the line.
Sending Shaw down is defensible in a vacuum, given his struggles. But outside the vacuum, it’s unclear who the Cubs can turn to as a better option for the hot corner. Bruján has a .189/.261/.270 batting line in his career. Justin Turner has lots of third base experience but is now 40 years old. He’s been more of a first base/designated hitter type in recent years, with just 90 innings at the hot corner since the end of the 2022 season. He’s also having his own struggles at the plate this year, with a .172/.286/.172 line thus far. Jon Berti is a 35-year-old veteran utility guy. Gage Workman is a Rule 5 guy who has received just ten plate appearances thus far this year and has been punched out in five of them.
It’s possible this is just a short-term situation and Shaw will be back up with the big league club soon. How long it takes for his return will be significant for him and the club. By cracking the Opening Day roster, he was on pace to get a full year of service time in 2025. That would have meant qualifying for arbitration after 2027 and free agency after 2030. A quick return to the majors could still make those targets viable. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs just 172 days in the big leagues or on the injured list to get credited with a full year. It’s also possible for Shaw to qualify for arbitration after 2027 even with less than three years of service time, as he could reach Super Two status.
If Shaw doesn’t return fairly quickly, those timelines will be pushed one year into the future. It will also take off the possibility of the Cubs earning an extra draft pick via the prospect promotion incentive. Under the PPI rules, teams can earn an extra pick by carrying a top prospect on the roster long enough to earn a full service year. The Cubs put that on the table initially by giving Shaw an Opening Day job but it will no longer apply if he’s down for a few weeks.
Photo courtesy of Sergio Estrada, Imagn Images
The Cubs’ Bullpen Outlook
The Cubs entered spring training this year with their bullpen largely set. Offseason trade acquisitions of Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier added a pair of veteran righties — including a closer, Pressly — to the late-inning mix. Chicago signed lefty Caleb Thielbar to a one-year, $2.75MM deal. That trio joined Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and Keegan Thompson as virtual locks. All three holdovers pitched very well in 2024, and the latter two are out of minor league options.
There are plenty of candidates for the remaining spots, the bulk of whom are on the 40-man roster already. Righty Julian Merryweather is coming off a poor showing in an injury-marred season that included an April rib fracture and season-ending knee surgery in September. He yielded 11 runs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA), but Merryweather was excellent in 2023, logging a 3.38 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate in 72 innings for the Cubs. He’s also out of minor league options, which surely gives him a leg up on others. (Four scoreless spring innings with a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio so far isn’t hurting his cause, either.)
Others on the 40-man roster include righties Nate Pearson, Eli Morgan, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts and Gavin Hollowell. All have at least one minor league option remaining. However, the Cubs have at least one non-roster invitee who’s making a push for a spot: veteran righty Brad Keller.
Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote yesterday that Keller’s average fastball is up more than three miles per hour this spring, sitting 96.3 mph and topping out at 98 mph. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and manager Craig Counsell both spoke highly of Keller’s stuff this spring, with the skipper noting to Lee that Keller has been “more than we expected” so far in camp. Keller’s four runs in seven innings of work don’t stand out, but teams are far more focused on raw stuff, velocity and command when looking at such a small sample. Keller has allowed only seven hits and a walk while punching out six hitters and inducing grounders at a 48% clip so far.
Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports that Keller’s velocity jump and smoother mechanics have not only made him a legitimate consideration to break camp but made it “likely” that the team will add Keller to the roster. The veteran righty has a looming opt-out opportunity in his deal, so the Cubs will either have to select his contract to the big league roster or risk him landing with another team. His minor league pact comes with a $1.5MM base salary, per Mooney, making Keller an affordable addition to the relief corps if the team sees fit.
Adding Keller to the mix, however, comes with complications. Right now, the Cubs have six relievers who cannot be optioned to the minors in the running for bullpen spots: Pressly, Brasier, Thielbar, Miller, Thompson and Merryweather. Hodge has a full slate of minor league options remaining, but coming off a 1.88 ERA and 31.7% strikeout rate in 43 rookie innings, he’s not going anywhere. He’s locked into a seventh spot in the ‘pen.
Effectively, unless the Cubs are willing to move on from Merryweather, they only have one bullpen spot available. Plugging Keller into that spot would render their bullpen largely static, barring injury. Keller has more than five years of MLB service (6.062, to be more specific). He can’t be optioned without his consent.
That level of bullpen inflexibility is tough for any team to manage. Early off-days in the season would help, but if the Cubs needed to call up a fresh arm at any point, they’d be left choosing between optioning Hodge or designating someone for assignment. It’s not an ideal setup. (The Mets faced a similar situation with their bench when weighing whether to re-sign Jose Iglesias, which is largely why he ended up with the Padres.)
The situation would only grow murkier when righty Javier Assad is healed up from an oblique injury. Assad has been ruled out for Opening Day and is presumably IL-bound to begin the year. If he returns in April, however, he’d likely push righty Colin Rea from the fifth starter’s spot to a long relief role. Rea, like many of his teammates on the staff, can’t be optioned. The Cubs could technically option Assad, but he pitched 147 innings of 3.73 ERA ball out of the rotation last year; his strikeout, walk an home run rates all point to some regression, but Assad has still pitched well enough to this point in his career (3.40 ERA in 294 innings) that he can be considered a lock when healthy.
It’s always possible that further injuries sort the situation out organically. Injuries, particularly on the pitching side of things, are an inevitability for any team over the course of a six-week spring training and 162-game season. But with the bulk of the pitching staff healthy right now and minimal flexibility due to their lack of optionable arms, the Cubs seem like they’ll be forced into some decisions on those out-of-options arms sooner than later.