Free Agent Notes: Nats, Lazarito, Bell, O’s, Hunter, Mets
The Nationals have filed an interesting affidavit in their litigation against the Orioles (via MASN) relating to the arbitration on the value of their television rights fees, as James Wagner of the Washington Post notes. Seeking to help convince the judge to order the O’s back to a league-run arbitration panel, Washington owner Ed Cohen said of the lack of market-rate revenue: “[W]ithout this added and steady income, the Nationals cannot bring full economic confidence to investments in multi-year player contracts to keep up with the fierce competition for top players — especially when such control over finances is in the hands of a neighboring club.” It’s interesting to see some insight, however vague, into the team’s thinking on the matter, although it’s hard to know just how much impact there’s been in actuality on the team’s willingness and ability to offer contracts to free agents.
Here are some notes on a few free agents (or those who’ll soon formally join the open market):
- Intriguing young Cuban talent Lazaro Armenteros (aka “Lazarito”) expects to have a deal in place within the next two weeks, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. He’s in negotiations with some teams even as he finishes up workouts with others, says Rosenthal. The 16-year-old is seen as an intriguing athlete, though there have also been some less-than-sterling reviews.
- The showcase for Cuban outfielder Alexei Bell will now take place on February 15th in Mexico City, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. The veteran star is hoping to catch on with a major league organization.
- Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun takes a look at the Orioles‘ current possibilities for adding an outfielder. Dexter Fowler doesn’t seem to be an option, given the need to punt the club’s top draft pick, but he wonders whether Austin Jackson or a left-handed-hitting platoon option such as David Murphy or Will Venable could be in the cards. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com does the same with regard to starting pitching, providing an excellent breakdown of the internal possibilities and potential targets.
- Free agent reliever Tommy Hunter is still looking for a second guaranteed year, Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com tweets. He’s certainly one of the better names left on a slowing relief market, though it might still be a tall order to reach a multi-year pact. Hunter has largely posted solid results since moving to the pen full-time, but struggled badly with the long ball late last year.
- At this point, the Mets are realistically only looking at relievers on minor league deals, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. That makes sense, as the club already had to push a solid pitcher in Carlos Torres off of the roster after signing Antonio Bastardo.
Free Agent Notes: Fowler, Gallardo, Mets, Williams
MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince takes a crack at identifying the likeliest landing spots for outfielder Dexter Fowler. He likes the White Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Rangers and Cubs as the most plausible destinations. Castrovince ticks through a few other possibilities, including the Indians, who he says may not be able to afford the veteran. But Cleveland has a pretty significant need for an outfield bat, and I wonder if the team could squeeze him in with a backloaded contract structure. It’s worth recalling, too, that the organization has found money late in the offseason previously, although it’s also true that the remnants of the resulting deals (with the since-traded Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher) make for a fairly significant payroll constraint at present.
Let’s check in on a few other free agents that have yet to sign:
- The Rockies aren’t “especially aggressive” at present in their pursuit of free agent righty Yovani Gallardo, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. He had previously suggested that Colorado may be a finalist for Gallardo’s services, but now says it is not clear how serious the club is about chasing Gallardo. The veteran remains the most established starter left on the market.
- The Mets are still interested in adding to their bullpen, but probably not at the price that Tyler Clippard is likely to command, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports on Twitter. Puma previously tweeted that New York was keeping an eye on Tommy Hunter, but was not looking to go past a one-year deal. Hunter, though, has been looking for more.
- Righty Jerome Williams will miss time early in the year after undergoing a procedure on his Achilles tendon, Cotillo tweets. The 34-year-old hurler has logged better than 100 innings in each of the last four seasons, and could still hold appeal as a swingman/depth option.
AL Central Notes: Gordon, Perez, Torres, Sox
Alex Gordon explained his decision to return to the Royals in an appearance today on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter links via host Casey Stern). Interestingly, he noted that “it was a difficult offseason being a free agent,” perhaps referencing the large number of high-quality players that joined him on the market. Ultimately, while other organizations “definitely showed interest,” Gordon said his “number one goal” from the start was to return to Kansas City.
Here are a few more notes from the AL Central:
- We’ve heard previously of some mutual interest between the Royals and catcher Salvador Perez in a new contract, and Jon Heyman tweets that the club is “quietly trying to re-work/extend” his contract with the club. Perez can be controlled already through 2019, via successive options, for a grand total of just $13.75MM (including this coming season). That obviously leaves ample leverage with the club, particularly since Perez has been worked hard through his age-25 season. It’s not clear what kind of arrangement might work for the team, but I’d speculate that it could involve the introduction of some guaranteed money in exchange for additional option years.
- The Twins may be interested in Mets reliever Carlos Torres, who currently sits in DFA limbo, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). He’s only owed $1.05MM through arbitration this year and his peripherals suggest that last year’s 4.68 ERA may have been a bit unlucky, so it’s not difficult to see the appeal for a Minnesota club that could stand to deepen its pen.
- The White Sox seem to have allowed the outfield market to pass by without striking, Jim Margalus of SB Nation opines. He wonders whether the Adam LaRoche contract may be a larger obstacle than had been presumed. Of course, it is fair to note that Dexter Fowler, Austin Jackson, and a variety of platoon players remain available — to say nothing of the possibility of a trade — so there’s time yet for GM Rick Hahn to pursue upgrades.
Prospect Notes: Dodgers, Cuba, Reed
The Dodgers’ Triple-A squad made a remarkable 334 transactions last season with 84 different players appearing in a game, writes Bill Plunkett of Baseball America. Director of player development Gabe Kapler implied that the big league club will continue to make frequent use of their minor league rosters as a way to shuffle depth around. Such a strategy can be particularly useful with back-of-the-roster pitching like spot starters and over-taxed young relievers.
- Cuba’s Ciego De Avila club will represent the island nation in the upcoming Caribbean Series, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America. The tournament begins on February 1. International tournaments are a commonly used opportunity to defect and join the majors. The most notable players in attendance will be Yulieski Gourriel, his young brother Lourdes Gourriel, and Alfredo Despaigne. Badler calls Yulieski, 31, the top player in Cuba, citing a .494/.586/.861 line in 215 plate appearances. Lourdes better fits the role of prospect – he’s 22 with a .340/.400/.561 slash. Badler calls him one of Cuba’s top five players. Despaigne is the best Cuban slugger. He hit .258/.352/.462 in 409 plate appearances last season for Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines. While those are the biggest names to watch, there’s no telling which, if any, players will defect.
- MLB.com’s Jim Callis has unveiled his first base prospect rankings with the Astros‘ A.J. Reed taking the top spot. Reed’s excellent first full season included some truly gaudy stats – 34 home runs, 113 runs, and 127 RBI. Callis notes that he still has to prove he can hit advanced left-handed pitching. Pirates prospect Josh Bell and Mets first baseman Dominic Smith are next up in Callis’ Top 10.
More Reactions To And Effects Of The Yoenis Cespedes Deal
We already collected one round of reactions to the Yoenis Cespedes‘ three-year, $75MM deal. Here are the stragglers.
- The Mets re-signing of Cespedes should go a long way towards restoring fan trust in the organization, writes Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. The club has taken a lot of flak in recent years for perceived penny pinching and a failure to make big, meaningful moves in the offseason. Much of that can be blamed upon the Bernie Madoff scandal. It should encourage fans to see the team take advantage of a unique opportunity. Although Cespedes signed at a “discount,” the minimum commitment of $27.5MM in 2016 is still a substantial investment for the Wilpons.
- The deal is sensible for the Mets, writes Benjamin Hoffman of the New York Times. Using values provided by FanGraphs, Hoffman notes that Cespedes’ 2015 was worth over $50MM. Expecting regression, Hoffman estimates Cespedes will be worth about $20MM in each of the next few campaigns. While the one-year opt out means the Mets could be renegotiating next offseason, Cespedes will only trigger the opt out if he has a valuable season.
- Based on past performance, Cespedes could be a disaster in center field, writes Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs. However, Sullivan dives beyond the surface – 900 innings in center field spread over his major league career – to find other players like Cespedes. His biggest asset is superior arm strength. Two center fielders who rely on arm rather than range are Marcell Ozuna (-3 UZR/150) and Leonys Martin (15 UZR/150). Sullivan supposes that experience could help Cespedes run better routes and his elite arm can help to avert a complete disaster. Ozuna seems like a much more likely optimistic outcome than Martin.
- If the Mets won the deal, the Nationals and Angels were the losers, writes Mark Townsend of Yahoo. Cespedes was the last top-of-the-line free agent on the market. Now teams will sift through the decent remaining options like Dexter Fowler, Howie Kendrick, and Ian Desmond. The Angels have a particular need for firepower to fit around Mike Trout. In my opinion, Fowler and his high OBP would be an excellent fit batting ahead of Trout. Meanwhile, the Nationals pursuit of Cespedes always struck me as merely opportunistic. They didn’t have an obvious need for Cespedes. In my mind, they may have been assuring the Mets paid something to reacquire him.
NL East Notes: Nationals, Phillies, Braves
Compared to what they did last season, the Nationals may stand to gain the most from their returning players, writes August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs. We all pay attention to the big moves of the offseason – such as the Mets‘ signing of Yoenis Cespedes. It’s easy to forget that player performance is not constant. Using projected WAR, Fagerstrom finds the Nationals could gain about seven wins just from 2015 returnees. In particular, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, and Jayson Werth are projected for rebound campaigns.
Here’s more from the NL East:
- The Phillies are on the hunt for late opportunities, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. GM Matt Klentak said, “every year, it turns out that somebody who we thought was going to sign early and they don’t, they hold out and there’s a deal to be done…if there’s an opportunity out there, we’re going to push forward.” Klentak is comfortable with the team’s current depth, so there’s no guarantee the club with sign or trade for any additional talent before the start of the season.
- Phillies left-handed starter Matt Harrison is still experiencing an ongoing back injury, per Zolecki. Harrison is unlikely to be ready for the start of Spring Training and may not pitch anytime in the near future. The club acquired Harrison as part of the Cole Hamels trade as a means to balance salary. For now, he’s a lottery ticket for the Phillies if he can ever return to health. At some point, the club may decide they value the 40-man roster spot more (this is less of an issue in-season if he’s on the 60-day DL).
- Freddie Freeman thinks the Braves will return to relevance soon, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Freeman is the last man standing from the 2013 roster, marking a surprisingly quick overhaul for John Hart and company. Freeman is excited about the team’s mix of veteran and young talent. The Braves new SunTrust Park is scheduled to open in 2017, and the Braves would surely like to field a contender.
Reactions To The Yoenis Cespedes Deal
Here’s a collection of early reactions to the Mets’ re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes to a three-year, $75MM deal that includes a no-trade clause and an opt-out after the first season.
- The Mets’ $75MM total offer was considerably less than the deal offered by the Nationals, who were willing to give Cespedes in excess of $100MM over five years and an opt-out after the second year, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes. (Rosenthal notes that the Nats’ deal did contain “heavy deferrals,” however.) Cespedes’ willingness to stay in New York despite the promise of greater treasure elsewhere could make him a hero to Mets fans, and the deal is an “absolute triumph” for the Mets, writes Rosenthal.
- Cespedes’ new deal contains fewer years than anticipated, but it still makes him very highly paid on a year-by-year basis, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post writes. If Cespedes exercises his opt-out, he will have received $27.5MM for the 2016 season, an average annual value that’s second only to that of Miguel Cabrera‘s among position players. Meanwhile, the deal turns the Mets into NL East favorites, Davidoff writes, and the downside risk of the deal is limited, since Cespedes is only signed for three years.
- The Cespedes re-signing is one of several moves this offseason that makes their defense worse, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs writes. The team had previously acquired Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera, both questionable defenders at the positions they’ll be asked to play. And Cespedes figures to take over for the light-hitting but defensively brilliant Juan Lagares in center. The Mets will have a strikeout-heavy pitching staff, which will limit the amount of damage their fielders can do, but the success of the team’s new-look group of position players will probably depend largely on their producing offensively.
- The Mets caught some luck that allowed them to sign Cespedes, Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal points out. First, Ben Zobrist rejected the Mets to sign with the Cubs. Then, Michael Cuddyer unexpectedly retired. That left them with the money necessary to sign Cespedes.
Mets, Nationals Aren’t Alone In Pursuit Of Cespedes
9:40pm: Both New York and Washington are “operating under [the] assumption that other teams also are pursuing Cespedes,” Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports adds (links to Twitter). He notes that the chatter surrounding the Mets’ three-year offer may be luring other organizations into the mix (if they weren’t already) to pitch their own ideas based on such a concept.
As Rosenthal notes, the White Sox are one club that has already been reported to have interest at that level of commitment. I’d add that the Orioles remain a plausible suitor at a more limited contract length, and certainly it isn’t hard to imagine other clubs that could be intrigued by that idea.
8:43pm: The Astros do not appear to be a late entrant, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets.
8:38pm: The Mets and Nationals are not the only two clubs pursuing top remaining free agent Yoenis Cespedes, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter.
Reports recently have suggested that a signing could come in very short order, with those two teams appearing to be the finalists. Washington is said to have dangled a five-year offer with a value approaching, if not exceeding, $100MM. New York, on the other hand, was set to meet with Cespedes’s reps today in hopes of selling him on three-year scenario of some kind.
But a mystery team (or teams) appear to be altering the equation as the star outfielder nears his decision. It’s not known which late entrants are shaking up the market for the veteran Cuban slugger, but neither is it difficult to guess at some of the possibilities. In fact, Steve Adams and I broke down no fewer than a dozen possibilities just yesterday in the latest episode of the MLBTR Podcast.
As I wrote back in early December, there was never a clear favorite for Cespedes, but it always seemed there’d be a wide array of interest. After all, he’s only thirty and is coming off of a monster 2015 campaign. While there are certainly some major question marks — in particular, the fact that his 2013-14 work fell far shy of his efforts in the seasons before and after — there’s no ignoring his ceiling.
Most of the clubs noted in that post are still plausible suitors. It’s probably safe to scratch off the Tigers, but clubs such as the Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Orioles, and White Sox all still seem plausible to varying degrees. The Padres have been said to be lurking, too, and so have the Braves — though Atlanta, at least, has always seemed to be on hand in case of a bargain.
And it would be foolish to rule out organizations like the Rangers — if not even the Red Sox or Yankees — when a premium talent is on the board. Really, only a handful of organizations appear to be wildly implausible pursuers. There are always ways to deal with perceived logjams, after all, and Cespedes represents the last open-market opportunity to add a potential superstar.
Mets Avoid Arbitration With Lucas Duda, Jenrry Mejia
The Mets have reached agreements to avoid arbitration with first baseman Lucas Duda and reliever Jenrry Mejia, Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links).
Duda will receive $6.725MM for the 2016 season. The slugger will land slightly above the $6.65MM mid-point in their recently-submitted arbitration numbers. He had filed at $7.4MM, with the team countering at $5.9MM. His final number lands just shy of MLBTR’s $6.8MM projection.
Now entering his age-30 campaign, Duda has emerged as a significant force at the plate. He owns a .249/.350/.483 slash with 57 home runs since the start of 2014. New York will be able to control him for one additional season through the arb process.
Mejia, meanwhile, settled at $2.47MM. Notably, as Heyman adds, he will take a rare pay cut from his prior year’s salary. New York tendered him a contract but sought a reduction on the price tag after Mejia missed most of the year due to successive PED suspensions. Of course, he still owes time on the second and will miss a sizable portion of the coming season — meaning he won’t earn the full amount agreed upon.
Mets Sign Antonio Bastardo
FRIDAY: The Mets have announced the signing. Bastardo gets a $250K signing bonus and will then earn salaries of $5.25MM (2016) and $6.5MM (2017), Heyman tweets.
WEDNESDAY: The Mets and left-hander Antonio Bastardo are in agreement on a contract, reports Jon Heyman (Twitter link). It’s a two-year, $12MM contract, according to Baseball Essential’s Robert Murray (on Twitter). Bastardo is represented by the Legacy Agency.
Murray reported yesterday that things were picking up in the Bastardo market, though the three-year deal mentioned in that report ultimately wasn’t attained. The two-year pact represents a departure from the Mets’ previously reported plans, as the team was said earlier this month to be seeking relief help on a one-year deal. In that regard, the agreement between the two parties represents a compromise, as Bastardo was said to be seeking a three-year deal in the $18MM range (similar to the one Tony Sipp landed with Houston earlier this year).
Bastardo, 30, has turned in generally strong results across the past three seasons between the Phillies and Pirates, working to a 3.18 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 and a 30.8 percent ground-ball rate in 164 innings of work. He’s dominated left-handed opponents in that stretch, holding same-handed batters to a paltry .167/.273/.295 triple-slash. However, Bastardo is more than a specialist, as he’s also been plenty effective against right-handed batters, limiting such opponents to a .204/.310/.314 line. As such, he can be deployed as a setup man, regardless of matchup, alongside Addison Reed and Jenrry Mejia. That trio, of course, will help bridge the gap from the club’s excellent young rotation to breakout closer Jeurys Familia, who saved 43 games for the Mets in 2015.
With Bastardo in the fold, the Mets will now have a wealth of quality left-handed options for manager Terry Collins to utilize. The team re-signed Jerry Blevins this offseason, and he’ll look for better health after twice fracturing his forearm in a pair of fluky accidents in 2015. Sean Gilmartin, whom the Mets selected in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft, enjoyed a brilliant season with New York, recording a 2.67 ERA in 57 1/3 innings in his Major League debut. And southpaw Josh Edgin, who missed the 2015 campaign in the wake of Tommy John surgery, will likely be ready to return to a big league mound at some point during the 2016 season as well.
The Mets deserve some praise for waiting out what was an exceptionally aggressive relief market in the earlygoing this offseason. Five relievers scored contracts of three or more years in the earlier phase of the offseason, and many — we at MLBTR included — believed Bastardo would find such a pact as well. However, while his average annual value is commensurate with many of the multi-year deals given to setup men this winter, the Mets’ patient approach allowed them to knock a year off the price in the end.
Bastardo drew interest from a number of teams, including the Orioles, Dodgers, Pirates, Blue Jays and Twins, per various reports this offseason. With his departure from the open market, teams could turn to one-year deal candidates such as Neal Cotts, Franklin Morales and Matt Thornton as they look to supplement their bullpens with left-handed relievers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.