Quick Hits: Do-Over Deals, QO, Tanking, Platoons
In honor of Groundhog Day, MLB.com has compiled some interesting tales of woe from top MLB executives. There’s a nice mix of mistakenly parting with prospects (Doug Melvin laments parting with Nelson Cruz when he didn’t need to); failing to pull the trigger for a key veteran (John Hart says he should have been willing to give Brian Giles to land Randy Johnson); failing to pick a side (Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti took a failed middle course in trading away Roberto Alomar); giving up on the wrong guy (Terry Ryan owns up to the decision to release David Ortiz); and reaching on a free agent (the Jeff Keppinger signing is a regret for Rick Hahn). It’s well worth a perusal of the bullets available at the link above, which has individual links to those and many more stories.
Here are a few more notes from around the game:
- The qualifying offer seems increasingly likely to be a major point of discussion in the coming CBA talks, with Howie Kendrick‘s surprisingly light free agent contract providing the latest cause for concern. In his interview with MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM yesterday (the second half of the chat at this audio link), agent Scott Boras provided an interesting case against the system. As he poses it, teams shouldn’t be forced to decide between improving at the major league level and taking opportunities for future improvement off of the table. And Jon Morosi of FOX Sports ticks through a few possible tweaks that might help balance the system out.
- “Tanking” is another subject that’s been in the papers lately, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports that it was also a topic of discussion at the most recent owner’s meeting. There are tie-ins to the revenue sharing system, Olney suggests, with some contributing organizations feeling that recipient clubs should be required to utilize those funds in service of their major league roster.
- Of course, small market clubs will always need to be more creative than their larger-budget brethren, and August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs explores one key method that most employ: taking advantage of platoons. Fagerstrom looks at projected platoons around the league to identify the combinations with the most promise. Three teams have reasonable expectations of 3+ WAR platoons, should they decide to use them: the Mets (Neil Walker and Wilmer Flores), Red Sox (Jackie Bradley Jr. and Chris Young), and Cardinals (Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko). Of course, none of those teams are light spenders, but there are numerous other examples throughout the post, including the possible combination that the Rays just set up with Corey Dickerson and Steve Pearce.
Minor MLB Transactions: 2/1/16
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- Righty Jonathan Pettibone has signed a minor league pact with the Cubs and received an invitation to MLB camp, per a club announcement. The 25-year-old contributed 100 1/3 solid innings as a starter for the 2013 Phillies, registering a 4.04 ERA with 5.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9. But significant shoulder issues interrupted that campaign, and he’s hardly pitched competitively since. Pettibone underwent surgery to repair a SLAP tear in 2014, had a second procedure done last summer, and then lost his 40-man spot earlier this winter.
- The Mets have added catcher Raywilly Gomez on a minor league deal, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. The 26-year-old gets a major league camp invite. Gomez spent last year with the Angels’ Double-A affiliate, compiling a .291/.385/.336 slash in 284 plate appearances. He’s also spent time in the Phillies and Diamondbacks organizations.
Carlos Torres Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency
Mets right-hander Carlos Torres has cleared outright waivers and elected free agency, reports Adam Rubin of ESPN New York (via Twitter). He had been designated for assignment over a week ago. Rubin adds that pursuing an opportunity in Asia “is a possibility” for Torres, though he doesn’t specify whether that is in reference to Japan or Korea. Regardless, either could present Torres with more earning potential than a minor league deal with an MLB club.
Torres, 33, has spent the past three seasons with the Mets and been a largely effective reliever, though he did struggle in 2015. After recording a 3.24 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate of about 45 percent from 2013-14, Torres saw his ERA balloon to 4.68 in 2015. Despite the increase in ERA, Torres’ control remained solid (2.8 BB/9), his velocity actually increased by almost a full mile per hour (from 91.8 in 2014 to 92.5 in 2015) and his ground-ball rate of 48.3 percent was a career-best. FIP, in fact, felt that Torres’ 2015 season was actually superior to his 2014 work, while other metrics like xFIP and SIERA felt there was only a marginal drop-off in his skill set. All told, Torres totaled 57 2/3 innings for the Mets last season — a number that was somewhat limited by a calf strain late in the season.
Torres had agreed to a one-year, $1.05MM salary with the Mets to avoid arbitration. However, because arbitration salaries aren’t fully guaranteed, the team can cut ties with him for $175K. He’ll join a free-agent market that has been largely picked clean but still features some recognizable right-handed names — including Tyler Clippard, Tommy Hunter and Matt Belisle — and be free to sign with any team for any amount.
NL Notes: Seager, Prospects, Cespedes, Rockies, Papelbon
Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager has been named the game’s best prospect in preseason top-100 and top-101 prospect rankings from MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. Seager still qualifies for the lists since he retained his rookie eligibility by only making 113 plate appearances for L.A. last season, though he made a big first impression by hitting .337/.425/.561 in his initial taste of the big leagues. Twins center fielder Byron Buxton and Nationals righty Lucas Giolito are ranked second and third on both lists, and overall, the National League dominates the upper echelon of both rankings. Ten of MLB.com’s top 13 prospects are all from NL teams, while 10 of BP’s top 14 youngsters all hail from the senior circuit. Here are some more items from around the National League…
- The details of Yoenis Cespedes‘ return to the Mets were detailed by COO Jeff Wilpon, GM Sandy Alderson and agent Brodie Van Wagenen in a conference call with reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post) earlier this week. Negotiations quickly picked up steam within about a week’s time, though such important contractual details as Cespedes’ opt-out clause after the first year were agreed upon early in the process.
- Van Wagenen also discussed his Cespedes’ free agency in a Friday interview with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (all links to Twitter). He was in active talks with not just the Mets, but four other teams on the day that Cespedes agreed to re-sign with New York. In regards to the deal’s structure and the opt-out clause, “it was less about looking toward next year and more about being able to control where he was going to be,” Van Wagenen said.
- As the calendar turns to February, the Rockies have yet to make any additions to their shaky rotation, the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders writes. GM Jeff Bridich stressed that the club expects internal upgrades in the form of better health from Jorge De La Rosa, Tyler Chatwood and Jordan Lyles. As to the club’s rumored pursuit of Yovani Gallardo, Bridich described those reports as “fairly overblown.”
- Multiple Nationals players tell James Wagner of the Washington Post that they don’t anticipate any clubhouse issues with Jonathan Papelbon in the wake of his infamous dugout skirmish with Bryce Harper last season. A larger issue, Wagner notes, might be whether the D.C. fans are as forgiving — it’s not hard to see Papelbon receive his share of boos in the early stages of the season, especially if his performance struggles.
Mets Place Carlos Torres On Outright Waivers
JANUARY 29: New York has placed Torres on outright waivers after being unable to strike a trade, Rubin reports.
JANUARY 22: The Mets have designated righty Carlos Torres for assignment, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets. He’ll lose his roster spot to fellow reliever Antonio Bastardo.
Torres had already agreed to a $1.05MM arbitration salary, so any team claiming him would be obligated for that amount. If he is not traded or claimed, then New York would still owe him one-sixth ($175K) of that amount.
The 33-year-old had put together two straight solid seasons as a swingman and long reliever for the Mets, but ended 2015 with a 4.68 ERA over 57 2/3 frames. It’s worth noting, though, that Torres suffered from some ball-in-play (.326 BABIP) and sequencing (65.3% LOB%) misfortune, while his peripherals were otherwise fairly strong. He ended the year with 7.5 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 and a 48.3% groundball rate, leading ERA estimators to value him at a mid-3.00 level.
Certainly, it isn’t difficult to imagine another club deciding that’s enough of a track record to wager $1MM on. After all, similar background statistics supported 3.24 ERA over 183 1/3 frames over 2013-14. And Torres actually showed a slight velocity increase last year.
Mets Avoid Arbitration With Neil Walker
The Mets have avoided arbitration with second baseman Neil Walker, per a team announcement. He’ll earn $10.55MM for the coming season, Jon Heyman tweets.
Walker’s salary falls just under the midpoint between the respective filing values of $11.8MM and $9.4MM. It also lands only a bit shy of his $10.7MM projection, via MLBTR and Matt Swartz.
Walker, a switch-hitter, has long been a significant offensive contributor. He carries a .272/.338/.431 slash in 3,426 major league plate appearances. He’s not a great fielder, but is solid enough with the glove to profile as a strong first-division regular.
The 30-year-old came over from the Pirates in a trade that sent southpaw Jon Niese to Pittsburgh. He’ll step into the second base role vacated by former Met and current National Daniel Murphy. Walker will qualify for free agency following the 2016 season.
NL Notes: Reds, CarGo, Torres, Phillies, Pirates
Reds president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty indicated that it’s “less likely” that team will add an arm now that Bronson Arroyo has signed with the Nationals, writes C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Per Rosecrans, the Reds considered Arroyo to be somewhat of a special case because of his familiarity with the team and his eagerness to work as a mentor for young pitchers. Jocketty did confirm that the Reds made an offer to Arroyo, but in the end, “it just wasn’t good enough,” the longtime exec added. However, first-year GM Dick Williams painted a bit of a different picture when discussing the remainder of the Reds’ offseason, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. “There are still a handful of guys out there that might make sense to bring into camp with a similar profile as Bronson,” said Williams. “Just veteran guys, but not high-profile, big-dollar guys. I wouldn’t be surprised if we add maybe a little bit to our depth there.” Speaking speculatively, Arroyo wasn’t the only former Reds pitcher on the free agent market that could theoretically serve as a mentor to a young staff; right-handers Aaron Harang, Kyle Lohse and Alfredo Simon are all still unsigned.
Here are some more notes from the National League…
- The Rockies have discussed seeing how Carlos Gonzalez looks at first base in Spring Training, manager Walt Weiss tells MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. “CarGo at first base is something we’ve talked about introducing a little bit this spring, but it’s more of a potential longterm outlook,” Weiss explains. “We’re not really looking to circulate him at first base — just starting to introduce it in a practice setting.” As Harding notes, the Rockies never indicated that it was a possibility for the since-traded Corey Dickerson to play some first when such questions arose in regards to the team’s outfield logjam. While playing Gonzalez full-time at first base could theoretically allow the Rockies to make a run at a defensive upgrade in center field (e.g. Austin Jackson), it seems unlikely that the team would simply bank on Gonzalez learning the position in a few weeks’ time in Spring Training. From a long-term perspective, however, slowly acclimating Gonzalez with first base could help to create room for top prospect David Dahl, who has the potential to debut at some point in 2016.
- The Mets are in trade talks with multiple clubs about right-hander Carlos Torres, who was recent designated for assignment when New York signed left-hander Antonio Bastardo to a two-year deal, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. Previously, the New York Post’s Mike Puma noted that the Twins may have some interest in the right-hander, who had somewhat of a down year in 2015 but has been a solid ‘pen arm for the Mets over the past few seasons. Dating back to 2013, Torres has a 3.59 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate in 241 innings.
- The Phillies announced on Thursday that they’ve hired former Google quantitative analyst Andy Galdi as their new director of baseball research and development. GM Matt Klentak spoke excitedly about the fresh perspective that Galdi can bring to the research and decision-making processes in Philadelphia based on his recent experience, writes MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, although it should also be noted that Galdi has a background in sports as well. Galdi served as a baseball operations intern for the Mets in 2009, Zolecki notes, and he also spent two years serving as a statistical analyst in the NBA commissioner’s office. Within Zolecki’s column, Klentak speaks at length about the improvements made to the Phillies’ analytics department in his first offseason as the club’s general manager.
- Sticking with front office changes, earlier this week the Pirates announced some promotions in their baseball operations department. Kevan Graves will move from director of baseball operations to the role of assistant general manager, while Will Lawton has been promoted from baseball operations assistant to assistant director of baseball operations.
- For Brewers fans (or fans of any club, for that matter) that missed today’s MLBTR Podcast, Milwaukee GM David Stearns joined host Jeff Todd and discussed his team’s continued pursuit of cost-controlled young talent, the club’s farm system and young pieces for the 2016 rotation, as well as the recent comments from catcher Jonathan Lucroy implying that he’d be open to a trade.
Mets Designate Darrell Ceciliani For Assignment
The Mets announced today that they have designated outfielder Darrell Ceciliani for assignment, which will clear clear a spot on the team’s 40-man roster for the newly re-signed Yoenis Cespedes (Twitter link).
The 25-year-old Ceciliani made his big league debut with the Mets in 2015 and batted .206/.270/.279 in 75 plate appearances. While that batting clearly leaves something to be desired, Ceciliani posted huge numbers in the (admittedly hitter-friendly) Triple-A Pacific Coast League, batting .345/.398/.581 with nine homers and 16 steals in 255 trips to the plate. Ceciliani has a history of solid production in the minor leagues, and he’s capable of playing all three outfield positions as well. In last season’s highly limited sample (129 total innings between left field and center field), Ceciliani rated at +6 Defensive Runs Saved and +4.2 runs above average, per Ultimate Zone Rating. Ceciliani has bounced around Baseball America’s list of top Mets prospects dating back to 2010, though he’s slipped each season and rated as the team’s No. 31 prospect last offseason.
Mets Re-Sign Yoenis Cespedes
While he might have originally been acquired as a rental piece at the non-waiver trade deadline, Yoenis Cespedes is staying with the Mets, who announced a three-year deal with the slugging outfielder on Tuesday evening. Cespedes will reportedly be guaranteed $75MM, though he can also opt out after the first season, at which point he’ll have earned $27.5MM on the front-loaded contract. He’ll reportedly earn $23.75MM in both 2017 and 2018 if he does not opt out, and the new deal is also said to include a full no-trade clause.
While a return to the Mets has always seemed plausible, it’s also appeared at times to be a long shot. That’s due in large part to the fact that Cespedes seemed destined to land a much greater, longer-term commitment than Sandy Alderson and co. were willing and able to make.
With Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson at the corners, and Juan Lagares and recent addition Alejandro De Aza available up the middle, there wasn’t a need, strictly speaking. But Michael Cuddyer‘s retirement opened a roster spot and some capital, and the Mets stayed in position as the winter progressed. The team’s payroll will approach the $140MM mark with Cespedes in tow, but the somewhat surprising World Series run last year and an impressive crop of young pitchers certainly justified such an advance.
It remains to be seen what New York will do in crafting an outfield alignment. A trade of Lagares makes some sense at first glance, though it isn’t clear what they’d be looking for in return, and selling low isn’t appealing either. Then there’s the fact that the gifted fielder might be of importance not only down the line, but also in 2016. Granderson could surely stand to avoid left-handed pitching, while Conforto is still somewhat unproven despite an impressive debut. And, Cespedes did not look terribly comfortable in center field last year, so some late-game shifting could be in order at times.
Any way you cut it, the signing looks to represent a major coup for the Mets, who’ll look to defend their NL East title with the man who helped lead them there in the first place. Cespedes, 30, put up a huge .287/.337/.604 slash down the stretch after coming to New York in a deadline deal that sent minor league right-handers Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa back to the Tigers. Although Cespedes dealt with some injuries and wasn’t a major force in the postseason, there’s no question of the impact he made on the Mets last year.
Looking forward, the Mets will hope that Cespedes can continue to provide top-notch overall value. Though he’s not much of an on-base threat, he’s made huge contributions with his power stroke and high-quality corner outfield defense. To be sure, Cespedes was more solid than great in the two preceding seasons his elite 2015 campaign. But with the chance to head back to the open market after the season, he’ll surely have all the incentive necessary to fuel a repeat performance, and the downside here is far less worrisome than those found in many player option scenarios. Plus, New York stands to gain a draft pick through the qualifying offer system if Cespedes triggers his opt-out clause.
The concept also makes good sense as a fall-back for the Roc Nation Sports client. It certainly carries a high-end annual salary, with the larger portion due up front, though the term does fall well shy of expectations. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had pegged his earning capacity at $140MM over six years entering the winter. It appeared he’d have a good chance of reaching it after Jason Heyward inked a monster, opt-out-laden $184MM deal with the Cubs and Justin Upton went for six years and $132.75MM to the Tigers.
While the overall guarantee pales in comparison to those contracts, Cespedes adds an enormous amount of upside through his own contract. The early opt-out provision means that he’ll have a chance to re-enter the market in just one year’s time in search of yet another big payday. The structure ultimately falls into what we’ve discussed here quite a bit in recent weeks (both in the MLBTR Newsletter and on the MLBTR Podcast), as a supercharged short-term deal that includes a significant guarantee but cabins the team’s risk and leaves plenty of earning potential for the player.
Barring a catastrophe in 2016, it’s hard to imagine that Cespedes won’t hit free agency again next year. There’s an excellent chance he’ll be the top outfielder available next winter in a much less robust market, and he won’t be so old that he won’t be able to cash in.
Cespedes was said to have interest from the White Sox on a three-year deal, though there was no mention of a first-year opt-out in those reports. The Orioles had interest in the five-year, $90MM range before ultimately agreeing to re-sign first baseman Chris Davis. The division-rival Nationals appeared to be the strongest competition in the end, but their reported five-year, $110MM offer (which contained an opt-out provision after the 2017 season) reportedly came with 10 years of heavily deferred payments, thereby reducing the present-day value of the contract to about $77MM.
Ultimately, with what’s been reported thus far, it isn’t surprising that Cespedes chose to take this offer to return to the bright lights of New York. And while there’s plenty of work yet to be done, the Mets will enter the coming season as a popular choice to challenge once again for a trip to the World Series.
Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter) first said a deal was close. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter) reported the financial details. Jon Heyman first said a deal was done (Twitter links). Heyman later tweeted the year-to-year breakdown of the deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Details On The Nationals’ Offer To Yoenis Cespedes
Prior to the Mets’ re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes to a three-year, $75MM contract with an opt-out clause after the first season, the Nationals were viewed as the primary competitor for his services, offering a reported five-year deal with a value said to be around $100MM and an opt-out after two years. A pair of reports from Jon Heyman (Twitter link) and Peter Gammons of the MLB Network (at GammonsDaily.com) now shed some further light on the matter. According to Heyman, the base value of the contract was $110MM, but the deal contained “significant” deferrals. While that info alone makes it difficult to compare the two offers, Gammons adds further context, stating that the $110MM was to be paid out over a 15-year term, and after factoring in the deferred monies, the present-day value of the proposed contract was roughly $77MM.
If that number is indeed accurate, it’s not surprising to see that Cespedes chose a comparable amount over a shorter contract that contained an earlier opt-out date with a team/city with which he was already familiar. Of course, it should also be noted that the present-day value of any multi-year contract is somewhat less than the face value of the deal; the $47.5MM that Cespedes would earn from the Mets if he does not exercise the opt-out clause will be worth less in 2017-18 than it would be in the present day. Nevertheless, the extent of the deferrals in the contract proposed by the Nationals certainly appears to make the Mets’ offer a stronger option, barring further revelations about the pair of proposals.
As Gammons continues, the Nationals had to offer significant deferrals not only to Cespedes, but also to Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist in their respective pursuits, due largely to the structuring of the MASN television contract. Because of the deferred money in their offers to Heyward and Zobrist, neither proposed contract was even close to the overall value that the duo got when ultimately signing with the Cubs. In Heyward’s case, the Cardinals’ offer was also significantly stronger than the reported 10-year, $200MM contract proposed by the Nats, after factoring in deferrals, Gammons notes.
Per Gammons, the structuring of the MASN television rights required the Nats to offer significant deferrals in virtually all of their contract offers this winter. Back in November a New York Supreme Court Judge ruled in favor of the Orioles (the majority owners of MASN), thereby voiding a payment of tens of millions of dollars that had been awarded to the Nationals by an arbitration panel in an effort to settle an ongoing dispute over the allocation of the network’s rights fees. (MLBTR’s Jeff Todd examined the dispute at length at the time of the ruling.) As Gammons notes, the difficulties for the Nationals will continue to linger until the two teams can come to some type of resolution on the matter.