Left-hander Sean Manaea has signed two-year deals with opt-out provisions in each of the past two offseasons and is poised to reenter the market for a third straight winter. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Manaea will opt out of the second year and $13.5MM on his deal “barring unforeseen circumstances.” The lefty himself spoke to Nightengale about his recent pair of short-term deals, noting that he’d certainly consider a longer-term pact but unlike many other players doesn’t mind the short-term, opt-out-laden route.
“I like to think it’s fun because it’s a new adventure,” Manaea told Nightengale. “I mean, it’s a little nerve-wracking when you’re not with a team most of the offseason, but it’s all part of the adventure.”
Manaea, 33 in February, is in the midst of one of his best seasons. He’s started 27 games and pitched 150 1/3 frames with the Mets, working to a sharp 3.35 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. After favoring his four-seamer over the past two seasons with the Padres and Giants, Manaea has returned to the sinker he sported with the Athletics as his primary offering, throwing the pitch 40.8% of the time. He’s maintained the increased usage of his slider (26%) at the expense of his changeup (11.7%) — while still throwing occasional four-seamers and cutters.
The new pitch blend has proven largely effective. Manaea is averaging 5 2/3 innings per outing, sitting on what’s nearly a career-high strikeout rate and only issuing walks at a slightly above-average clip. He’s kept the ball in the yard (0.96 HR/9) and done a decent job avoiding hard contact (88.8 mph average exit velocity, 38.2% hard-hit rate). He’s not drawing tons of chases off the plate (27%), but his opponents are making contact on those swings at the second-lowest rate of Manaea’s career (53.4%).
Manaea has long seemed capable of putting together this type of season. He regularly posts better-than-average walk rates and average or better strikeout rates. He was in the consideration to go in the top 10 selections of the 2013 draft but slipped to the No. 34 pick by the Royals due to a hip injury. That was the first of a few notable injury scenarios for Manaea, who most notably missed nearly all of the 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery late in the 2018 campaign.
Since that surgery-ruined season, Manaea has been a durable source of innings. He started a nearly full slate of 11 games in the shortened 2020 season and has since appeared in 32, 30, 37 and 27 games per season. The Giants frequently used him as a multi-inning reliever and bulk pitcher behind openers in 2023, hence that year’s 27 relief outings, but he still pitched 117 2/3 frames that year. Manaea hasn’t been on the injured list since returning from that 2018 shoulder procedure.
Given how well he’s pitched for much of the season, it’s hardly surprising that Manaea is intent on once again exploring free agency. A guaranteed multi-year deal should be there this time around, unless Manaea has come to enjoy the mercenary life and having say over his team on a yearly basis. Because he’ll he heading into his age-33 season, a four-year deal is likely the ceiling, and three years seems more reasonable to expect. Even if Manaea “only” secures a two-year guarantee, he’d almost certainly do so while signing for an annual value higher than the $13.5MM under his current contract.
The more interesting question surrounding Manaea will be one of the qualifying offer. The Mets can extend a QO to Manaea if he declines his player option, thus entitling themselves to a compensatory draft pick if Manaea signs elsewhere. They’d need to be comfortable paying Manaea the projected $21.2MM sum of this year’s QO, however.
On its surface, that’s a drop in the bucket for a deep-pocketed club like the Mets. But the Mets have paid the luxury tax every season under Steve Cohen’s ownership, falling into the top tier of penalty in the past two seasons. RosterResource projects them for a $171MM figure next year that’s well below the forthcoming $241MM tax barrier, but the Mets could see Manaea, Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, J.D. Martinez, Adam Ottavino, Harrison Bader, Ryne Stanek, Brooks Raley, Phil Maton and Jesse Winker all hit free agency. They’ll have many, many holes to fill and it won’t take much to push them right back up into luxury territory.
If the Mets return to the top tier of penalization — they’re already rumored to be among Juan Soto’s suitors and will presumably pursue other high-end targets, particularly in the rotation — that would mean a 110% tax on that salary. That’d be a total of $44.52MM if Manaea accepts. Even if they’re in a lower tier, a 62% tax or 95% tax would still put Manaea’s total expenditure on a QO in the $34-41MM range. And, as a luxury-paying team, the Mets would only receive a comp pick after the fourth round in the event that Manaea signed elsewhere. That minimal compensation and huge tax bill might allow Manaea to hit the market without the burden of draft compensation, which would only further strengthen his free-agent case on the heels of a strong season.
