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NL East Notes: Diaz, Walker, Cavalli

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Right-hander Edwin Diaz is in the second-year of his record-breaking five-year contract with the Mets, and the $102MM investment has not gone how either side surely hoped it would to this point. After an otherworldly 2022 campaign that saw Diaz pitch to an incredible 1.31 ERA with a 0.90 FIP while striking out more than 50% of batters faced, the right-hander missed the entire 2023 campaign after suffering a torn tendon in his right knee during the World Baseball Classic that spring.

While Diaz has now been healthy enough to take the field in 2024, the results have left much to be desired. Entering play tonight, the 30-year-old had a somewhat middling 3.57 ERA with an elevated 4.09 FIP in 17 2/3 appearances while going just five-for-eight in save opportunities. His struggles have become particularly pronounced since Cubs slugger Christopher Morel left him on the hook for a loss on April 29 by crushing a two-run homer at Citi Field. In six appearances since that loss, Diaz had converted just one of his four save chances and allowed a 5.14 ERA with a 5.70 FIP in 7 1/3 innings entering the Mets’ game this evening against Miami.

Things went from bad to worse against the Marlins tonight, when Diaz blew a four-run lead while recording just one out in the bottom of the ninth against Miami. After the game, the longtime closer admitted to reporters (as relayed by SNY) that his confidence is down following his recent stretch of tough performances. Even so, club manager Carlos Mendoza stood by Diaz in the aftermath of tonight’s loss, reaffirming to reporters (including the New York Post’s Mike Puma) that Diaz remains the club’s closer. At the same time, Mendoza acknowledged the possibility that the club could look to get Diaz some work in “softer spots” for the time being as he works through his struggles. The rest of the Mets bullpen has been fairly solid in spite of Diaz’s struggles, and the likes of Reed Garrett, Jorge Lopez, and Adam Ottavino could all theoretically step into higher leverage roles if Diaz needs to reset in lower leverage spots.

More from around the NL East…

  • Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker departed his start on Thursday after taking a hard-hit comebacker off his foot. While testing made clear that he had managed to avoid a break, Walker is nonetheless dealing with a bruise in his left big toe and it’s not yet clear if the veteran will make his next start, which is tentatively scheduled for this coming Wednesday. Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer relays that manager Rob Thomson told reporters this afternoon that he’s “optimistic” about Walker’s ability to make that start, though the club won’t be sure until they see how he reacts to a light bullpen session tomorrow. In the event that Walker is unable to return to the rotation for Wednesday’s start, the Phillies figure to slot right-hander Spencer Turnbull back into the rotation mix.
  • The Nationals have been without former top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli since he underwent Tommy John surgery back in March of 2023, but it appears that the 25-year-old hurler is now nearing a huge step in his rehab process. According to Mark Zuckerman of MASN, Cavalli is “ready” to begin a rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League. It will be his first appearance in an official game since his big league debut on August 26, 2022. MLB.com’s Injury Tracker indicates that Cavalli will be built up slowly over the course of his rehab, with two or three innings being the goal for his first appearance. The Nationals have been surprisingly competitive so far this season with a 20-23 record that places them in third place in the NL East, and a healthy and effective return to action from Cavalli later this season could be a huge boost for a rotation that already features exciting youngsters such as MacKenzie Gore and Mitchell Parker.

Mets’ Nate Lavender Undergoes Internal Brace Procedure

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Mets left-handed relief prospect Nate Lavender underwent a “variation of Tommy John surgery” with an internal brace added to his elbow ligament and will miss the remainder of the 2024 season, president of baseball operations David Stearns announced yesterday (X link via Tim Britton of The Athletic).

It’s a tough blow for the Mets and for Lavender, who had a strong chance to make his big league debut this season. The 24-year-old southpaw was the Mets’ 14th-round pick in 2021 but has elevated his stock and pitched quite well in the upper minors.

Last year, Lavender breezed through a brief seven-game look in Double-A — his only career action at that level — allowing just two earned runs while posting a 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 10 1/3 frames. He quickly moved up to Triple-A Syracuse, where he tossed 44 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with a huge 35.1% strikeout rate, albeit against a 12% walk rate. He opened the ’24 campaign with another seven frames and only three runs allowed in Syracuse, although this year’s 20.6% walk rate in that small sample raised some red flags in the run-up to his placement on the injured list.

In writing up the Mets’ nearly MLB-ready prospects, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen credited Lavender with one of the most deceptive deliveries in all of Minor League Baseball. Longenhagen added that even though Lavender doesn’t throw particularly hard (91 mph average fastball), his heater is so difficult for hitters to track that it alone gives him the potential to be a big league reliever, despite less-impressive secondary offerings and below-average command.

Lavender doesn’t turn 25 until January, so he still has plenty of prime years ahead of him. If he can get back to his 2023-24 form, he’ll again be a candidate to make his big league debut at some point next summer. Lavender isn’t on the Mets’ 40-man roster but would be Rule 5-eligible this coming offseason.

Mets Designate Joey Wendle, Yohan Ramirez For Assignment

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May 15: The Mets made the moves for Wendle, Vientos, Lucchesi and Ramírez official today. They also optioned right-hander José Buttó and recalled right-hander Grant Hartwig. Buttó’s option may be slightly surprising since he has a 3.08 ERA on the year, but that’s despite a 13.5% walk rate. The Mets have both Tylor Megill and David Peterson on rehab assignments and they could be options to rejoin the rotation soon.

May 14: The Mets are designating veteran infielder Joey Wendle for assignment, as first reported (on X) by Ben Yoel. SNY’s Andy Martino reported earlier this evening (on X) that New York was planning to recall Mark Vientos from Triple-A Syracuse before tomorrow night’s matchup with the Phillies.

That’s not the only forthcoming roster move. Dan Martin and Joel Sherman of the New York Post report that New York will recall left-hander Joey Lucchesi to make tomorrow’s start. Righty reliever Yohan Ramírez will be designated for assignment as the corresponding move, according to the Post.

Wendle had a disappointing tenure in Queens. New York signed the former All-Star to a $2MM free agent deal. It was a buy-low move after he slumped to a .212/.248/.306 line in 112 games for the Marlins a year ago. Wendle wasn’t out to a much better start this season. In 18 contests, he hit .222/.243/.250 with one extra-base hit (a double). He punched out nine times and drew one walk in 37 trips to the plate.

New York signed Wendle largely for his defensive flexibility. He has generally rated as an above-average to plus defender throughout the infield in his career. He struggled on that side of the ball during his very brief stint in Queens, committing three errors in 89 innings. The Mets stuck with Wendle over Zack Short two weeks ago, but they’ll now move forward without a clear backup shortstop behind Francisco Lindor.

Swapping Vientos in for Wendle provides more offensive upside to Carlos Mendoza’s infield. The 24-year-old is out to another nice start in Syracuse, hitting .284/.376/.500 with six homers in 31 games. While Vientos is striking out at a lofty 28.6% clip, he has consistently hit for power in parts of four Triple-A seasons. That has yet to translate to MLB success, but he’s clearly a higher-ceiling bat than Wendle at this point.

Brett Baty has been the primary third baseman in Queens. The former top prospect hasn’t hit well, turning in a .236/.299/.325 line through 135 plate appearances. He’ll stick on the roster but could lose some at-bats to Vientos, particularly against left-handed pitching. Philadelphia will turn to southpaw Ranger Suárez tomorrow, so it seems likely Vientos will get the nod at the hot corner.

Lucchesi will take the ball against Suárez in what’ll be his season debut. The southpaw has started seven games for Syracuse, working to a 2.58 ERA over 38 1/3 innings. He also had a 2.89 mark in nine big league starts last season, though he hasn’t missed many bats at either level. Lucchesi fanned 16.4% of MLB opponents last season and has a 17.8% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year.

It’s possible this proves to be a spot start. Adrian Houser was originally supposed to take the ball on Wednesday, but Sherman and Mike Puma write that plans changed when the righty warmed up for possible relief work in today’s game. While Houser didn’t enter the game, he threw enough in the bullpen to take him out of the running to start tomorrow.

That proved to be an unfortunate sequence of events for Ramírez, who cedes his roster spot to Lucchesi. This will be the third DFA of the season for the 29-year-old, who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues. It’s the second time the Mets have cut him loose. Ramírez started the year in Queens and was DFA within a few weeks. New York traded him to the Orioles and claimed him back last week after Baltimore waived him.

Around the roster shuffling, Ramírez has tossed 14 1/3 innings over 10 appearances. Despite striking out 17 of 65 opponents (a strong 26.2% rate), he has conceded 11 runs. Ramírez has mid-90s velocity and has missed bats at a roughly average level in the majors, but he has walked more than 12% of batters faced over his career.

The Mets will have a week to trade or waive both Wendle and Ramírez once they officially announce the DFAs. Wendle has more than enough service time to decline a minor league assignment while retaining his salary, so he’d very likely become a free agent if no team swings a trade for him. The moves will drop New York’s 40-man roster tally to 38.

Mets Outright Max Kranick

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Right-hander Max Kranick has cleared waivers and been outrighted off the Mets’ 40-man roster.  Kranick was designated for assignment earlier this week, and he’ll now report to Triple-A Syracuse.

New York claimed Kranick off waivers from the Pirates in January, and he started his Mets tenure on the 15-day injured list due to a hamstring strain.  He was officially activated on April 23 and then optioned to Triple-A, and Kranick has a 2.57 ERA in two starts and seven innings already in Syracuse.  Kranick still has a minor league option remaining so the Mets can freely move him back and forth between the majors and minors, though he’ll first have to be placed back on the 40-man roster before his next call back to the Show.

An 11th-round pick for the Pirates in the 2016 draft, Kranick made his Major League debut in 2021 and had a 6.28 ERA over 38 2/3 innings.  He only threw five big league innings in 2022 before his career was put on hold by Tommy John surgery in June of that year, and he made it back to toss 20 2/3 minor league frames in Pittsburgh’s farm system near the end of last season.

The long layoff resulted in Kranick receiving a fourth minor league option year, as the league often grants the extra option year to players who have missed an extended amount of time due to injury.  The Mets can therefore send Kranick back and forth between the majors and minors, though they’ll first have to carve out a 40-man roster space before bringing him back to the active roster.  Kranick has a 3.63 ERA over 84 1/3 career Triple-A innings, and he’ll continue to build his arm strength back up and serve as a rotation depth option should injuries arise in New York’s rotation.

Latest On Kodai Senga

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Kodai Senga threw a live batting practice session on April 29, seemingly a sign that the Mets hurler was making good progress on his way back from a moderate posterior capsule strain in his right shoulder.  However, the latest updates on Senga’s status aren’t as promising, as Mets manager Carlos Mendoza and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) that Senga has dialed back his rehab to work out his pitching mechanics, which will come in the form of bullpen sessions and lighter sessions of catch.  This will be the plan for at least the next week, Mendoza said, until Senga indicated that he was ready for more.

While Mendoza said that having Senga face live hitters could be a possible injury risk for either the pitcher or the batters, Mendoza repeatedly said that Senga was physically fine, and that the change of course in rehab work wasn’t a true setback.  Hefner compared the situation to Spring Training, “where a guy is working through mechanics and feeling things out and he wants to throw another bullpen instead of a live [session], or push it a couple days.  That’s what’s going on.  He wants to work through some mechanical stuff, and he wants to feel good in the bullpen before he does maybe another live or goes into a game.  He just wants to feel good before he starts that clock.”

Senga’s shoulder injury arose early in the Mets’ actual spring camp, and he began the season on first the 15-day injured list and then the 60-day injured list.  The expectation was that Senga would need an extended ramp-up period to make up for all his lost prep work, and though the 60-day IL designation will keep him sidelined until at least late May, it now looks like it will be longer than that before Senga is a candidate to join New York’s rotation.  Neither Mendoza or Hefner mentioned even a loose timeline for Senga’s return, leaving everything quite fluid.

After signing a five-year, $75MM deal to join the Mets in the 2022-23 offseason, Senga more than lived up to expectations in his first MLB campaign, posting a 2.98 ERA over 166 1/3 innings.  Even though the Mets started a partial rebuild or retooling at last year’s trade deadline, the team could take solace in the fact that Senga was looking like a rotation staple, though his shoulder injury has now thrown a wrench into that plan.

As DiComo notes, there is a contractual element at play to Senga’s extended stint on the IL.  The right-hander can opt out of his contract following the 2025 season if he amasses at least 400 innings in 2023-25.  His workload last year left him with the very manageable figure of 233 2/3 remaining innings to trigger the opt-out, yet hitting that threshold now looks a bit more difficult if Senga misses an increasingly large chunk of the 2024 campaign.

Senga’s absence also has the more immediate problem of hampering the Mets’ chances of contending this season.  Though new president of baseball operations David Stearns wasn’t overly aggressive with big-ticket moves this past winter, the organization still had some expectation of playing competitive baseball.  The Mets haven’t exactly been on fire yet, but even with a 19-20 record, they are a game out in the crowded NL wild card race.  This has been despite an inconsistent showing from the rotation, as Jose Quintana and Adrian Houser have both struggled badly.

Brooks Raley Facing Potential Long-Term Absence Due To Elbow Injury

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TODAY: Raley spoke with Newsday’s Tim Healey and other reporters today, and revealed that while his situation is “a little more complex” and that he doesn’t “know all the details,” he is dealing with bone spurs and some level of UCL damage in his left elbow.  Raley will meet with Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday to explore surgical and non-surgical options.

MAY 2: Mets reliever Brooks Raley is facing a possible long-term absence after testing revealed “at least fraying” in an elbow ligament, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman writes that Raley and the team are currently weighing whether he’ll need to undergo surgery.

Raley landed on the 15-day injured list with what the team called elbow inflammation two weeks ago. Manager Carlos Mendoza was initially optimistic that the left-hander would return around the time he was first eligible. Subsequent imaging has evidently revealed the issue to be more serious than the team first believed. Mendoza told reporters this afternoon that Raley’s recovery timeline was being pushed back, albeit without providing much in the way of specifics (via the MLB.com injury tracker).

Acquired from the Rays over the 2022-23 offseason, Raley has been a quality bullpen piece in Queens. He turned in a 2.80 ERA over a career-high 54 2/3 innings last season. He punched out more than a quarter of opposing hitters and found success against batters of either handedness. The Mets fielded some trade interest on Raley last summer but elected to hold him and trigger a $6.5MM option for this season.

The first three weeks could hardly have gone much better. Raley rattled off seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts and only five baserunners allowed (two hits and three walks). He was credited with four holds in eight appearances and was among the club’s highest-leverage arms. Depending on the results of upcoming testing, he could be out for an extended stretch — perhaps the entire season.

That would leave the Mets rather short on experienced left-handed bullpen depth. Free agent pickup Jake Diekman is their top healthy option. The veteran has huge swing-and-miss ability, though his results have been somewhat inconsistent throughout his career thanks to well below-average control. Josh Walker and Tyler Jay have seen limited action, while recent call-up Danny Young made his team debut in this afternoon’s win. Walker was recently optioned to Triple-A Syracuse, while Jay was outrighted off the 40-man roster and is back in the minors as well.

Depth starter Joey Lucchesi has fared better against left-handed hitters and could theoretically work out of the bullpen. The same is true of David Peterson once he returns from hip surgery that will shelve him at least into late May. (Peterson’s overall platoon splits are neutral, but his strikeout and walk rates have been much better against southpaws.) Still, this looks like an area the Mets could look to upgrade from outside the organization if Raley misses a significant amount of time.

A long-term absence would be particularly unfortunate for Raley as well. He turns 36 next month and will be a free agent next winter. With a 2.58 ERA and 27.3% strikeout rate since the start of 2022, he has a good chance at a solid two-year deal if he’s fully healthy. It’s too soon to tell how his market might be affected by this injury, but any kind of surgery (particularly if he’s out into 2025) would be a tough blow.

Mets Notes: Bader, Megill, Gilbert, Williams

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Harrison Bader has been out of the starting lineup for three of the Mets’ last five contests. He was penciled back into center field today before their game against the Cardinals was postponed.

On Tuesday, Bader expressed some frustration with his somewhat sporadic playing time in a chat with Mike Puma of the New York Post. “I don’t handle it well, I can tell you that,” the outfielder said about a reduced role. “But I certainly don’t let it affect the way I prepare, the way I keep focused when I do get an opportunity to go in there and play, even if it’s later in the game. If anything, it lights more of a fire under my ass. I’m bothered by it for sure. But I respect what they view as giving us an opportunity to win. And at the same time whether my name is in there or not I prepare to play every single day of the season.”

Bader stopped short of outwardly criticizing the coaching staff. However, he acknowledged that playing less “has been a challenge, not what (he) expected” when he signed a one-year, $10.5MM free agent deal. “I want to win, but I want to play,” he added. “We all want to play, but it’s hard. We have got a lot of guys and I respect the position that everyone is in. … I don’t know who makes the lineup, but whatever we have got going on I respect that position.”

The Gold Glove outfielder has started 26 of New York’s 36 games on the season. Manager Carlos Mendoza has turned to more of an outfield rotation recently. That’s largely a credit to DJ Stewart and Tyrone Taylor, both of whom are hitting well. Stewart, who has been limited to facing right-handed pitching, has made up for a lowly .185 average by drawing 17 walks and hitting four homers over 85 plate appearances. Taylor has a more conventional .288/.312/.425 batting line in 78 trips.

Stewart worked as the designated hitter for the season’s first couple weeks. J.D. Martinez has stepped into that role. The Mets have Starling Marte locked in as the primary right fielder. If Mendoza wants to get either Stewart or Taylor into the lineup, that generally necessitates pushing Brandon Nimmo to center and sitting Bader.

Bader is hitting .280/.314/.340 with one homer through 105 plate appearances. That has made him the least productive of the Mets’ outfielders offensively, at least by measure of wRC+, yet it’s solid work overall. Considering that Bader is also the team’s best defensive outfielder, he certainly hasn’t played his way out of the lineup. As Mendoza pointed out to Puma, it’s more so that Stewart and Taylor have so far outperformed their anticipated roles.

That all falls under the category of good problem to have, as the solid contributions from five outfielders gives the Mets cover if anyone struggles or suffers an injury. Aside from Nimmo, there were questions about everyone in that group heading into the season. Marte and Bader had career-worst offensive showings in 2023. Stewart is a 30-year-old who has never played more than 100 games in an MLB season. Taylor has primarily been a depth outfielder whom the Brewers flipped to New York for a minimal return over the winter.

The Mets also brought in Adrian Houser in that deal, though his tenure in Queens has gotten off to a much rockier start. Houser was at least temporarily pushed to the bullpen after struggling to an 8.16 ERA over his first six starts. The Mets called up top prospect Christian Scott last week to join Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, José Buttó and Sean Manaea in the rotation. Mendoza indicated they could go to a six-man rotation with a challenging section of the schedule coming up, but they’re also not far from having to make another decision with the pitching staff.

Tylor Megill has been on the injured list since departing his first start with a shoulder strain. The right-hander has made a trio of rehab outings, including four hitless innings with seven strikeouts at Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday. Mendoza said Megill will make another start for Syracuse on Sunday before the team reinstates him (X link via Puma). It remains to be seen if he’ll reclaim a spot on the MLB staff. Megill still has a pair of minor league options, so the Mets could keep him in Triple-A even when he’s fully healthy.

In other injury news, prospects Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert are seeking a return to game action by the end of the month or early in June, according to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. Williams has been delayed by a right wrist injury, while Gilbert suffered a right hamstring strain. Williams, the 14th overall pick in the 2022 draft, started the season at Double-A Binghamton. Gilbert, acquired in last summer’s Justin Verlander trade, opened the year in Syracuse after a huge finish in Double-A last season.

Mets Designate Max Kranick, Claim Yohan Ramirez

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The Mets announced Monday that they’ve claimed right-hander Yohan Ramirez off waivers from the Orioles, who recently designated him for assignment. In a corresponding move, the Mets designated right-hander Max Kranick for assignment. The move to claim Ramirez comes less than a month after the Mets themselves designated Ramirez for assignment and traded him to Baltimore in exchange for cash. Ramirez is out of minor league options, so he’ll head right to the big league bullpen.

The revolving-door act with Ramirez isn’t entirely new for the 2024 Mets. He’s the second reliever to be designated for assignment and traded for cash, only to eventually return via waiver claim, joining Michael Tonkin in that regard. The Mets followed a similar course with Tonkin, trading him to Minnesota and quickly reclaiming him. That pattern could continue throughout the season. The Mets have very few bullpen pieces with minor league options remaining and will need to regularly cycle through different names in the last couple spots due to that lack of flexibility.

Ramirez, who turns 29 today, has pitched in eight games between the Mets and O’s this season. He’s logged 11 1/3 innings in that time and been rocked for 11 runs, though that’s obviously a tiny sample. The hard-throwing righty entered the season with a career 3.99 ERA in 124 big league frames between the Mariners, Guardians, Pirates and White Sox.

Ramirez has fanned a roughly average 23.1% of his career opponents in the big leagues, but his 12.4% walk rate is bloated well beyond league-average levels.  He’ll give the Mets a fresh arm after using five relievers yesterday (the second straight day for Reed Garrett and Sean Reid-Foley). However, given the Mets’ handling of the final couple bullpen spots so far, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone if it’s a brief stay on the roster for Ramirez.

The Mets claimed Kranick, 26, off waivers from the Pirates back in January. He opened the season on the injured list due to a hamstring strain and was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse in late April upon being reinstated. Through his first seven innings in Triple-A this year, Kranick has allowed only two earned runs but has done so while issuing more walks (four) than strikeouts recorded (two). He’s also served up eight hits, including a pair of homers.

Coincidentally, both Kranick and Ramirez were with the Pirates last season — and at one point Ramirez was designated for assignment in order to make way for Kranick’s return to the roster after he’d recovered from 2022 Tommy John surgery. This time around, it’s Kranick giving way for Ramirez’s return to the pair’s current organization.

In 43 2/3 big league innings, Kranick has a 5.56 ERA. He’s fanned a below-average 17.9% of his opponents while issuing walks at a 10.9% clip that’s more than two percentage points north of the league average. A former 11th-round pick, Kranick has a solid track record in Triple-A, where he’s pitched in parts of four seasons and notched a 3.63 ERA through 24 appearances (23 of them starts). He’s fanned just 17.8% of opponents there as well but done so with much better command, evidenced by a 7.9% walk rate.

Kranick is in the last of his three minor league option seasons. He hasn’t had much big league success, but his optionability and Triple-A track record could earn him a look from a club in need of some rotation depth. In the next five days, Kranick will either be traded or placed on outright waivers or release waivers (both of which are a 48-hour process). He’s never been outrighted in the past, so if he clears waivers, the Mets will be able to assign him outright to Syracuse and retain his rights without needing to commit a 40-man roster spot to Kranick.

Mets Promote Christian Scott

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TODAY: The Mets have officially selected Scott’s contract, and also called right-hander Cole Sulser up from Triple-A.  Right-hander Dedniel Nunez and left-hander Danny Young were optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding moves.

MAY 2: The Mets are planning to promote pitching prospect Christian Scott, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. McDaniel adds that Scott will likely make his debut on Saturday against the Rays. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster, so the Mets will need a corresponding move to add him.

Scott, 25 in June, was a fifth-round selection of the Mets in 2021 but he has raised his stock dramatically since then. In 2022, he tossed 58 2/3 innings between Single-A and High-A with a fairly pedestrian 4.45 ERA, but stronger underlying metrics. He struck out 29.5% of batters faced while walking 8.4%. If not for a .381 batting average on balls in play and 68.1% strand rate, he would have fared much better, which is why his FIP was 2.77 that year.

Last year, he eventually rose as high as Double-A, throwing 87 2/3 frames for the year with a 2.57 ERA. He struck out 31.9% of batters while limiting his walks to a tiny 3.6% rate. He came into 2024 ranked as the #98 prospect in baseball, according to FanGraphs. At ESPN, McDaniel had Scott at #99. Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin of FanGraphs highlighted that he converted his changeup into a splitter, adding a strong third option to what had previously been mostly a sinker/slider combo.

He didn’t crack the season-opening lists at either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America, but has vaulted himself up to #62 on BA’s most recent update. That huge jump is a reflection of the fact that Scott has been dominating this year, apart from some homer troubles. Through five Triple-A starts here in 2024, he has fanned 38.3% of opponents while limiting his walks to a 6.4% rate. But thanks to seven fly balls clearing the fences, he has a 3.20 ERA.

In addition to pushing him up prospect lists, that strong performance will get him to the majors. The Mets currently have a rotation of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Adrian Houser and José Buttó. The only optionable guy in that group is Buttó, but he has been pitching well, with a 2.57 ERA on the year. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com speculates that Scott’s promotion might be related to the Mets playing 26 games in 27 days, so perhaps Scott’s promotion will just be a spot start to give the others a breather.

The length of Scott’s stay might also depend on other factors. Each of Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill and David Peterson are on the injured list and their respective returns will impact how the rotation is configured as they season rolls along. Senga and Peterson on on the 60-day IL and can’t return until late May but Megill recently began a rehab assignment and could therefore be an option in a few weeks. Scott’s performance in his big league debut will naturally impact the decisions as well.

Regardless of how long Scott spends in the bigs for the rest of the season, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time since the campaign is already more than a month old. The new CBA allows top prospects to earn a full year even if called up late if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but that won’t apply to Scott. To be eligible for that benefit, a player has to start the year on two of three top 100 lists at ESPN, BA and MLB Pipeline, but Scott was only on one. That means the Mets can control him through the 2023 season, even if he sticks in the big leagues from here on out.

Latest On Mets’ Rotation Plans

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The Mets are bringing up top pitching prospect Christian Scott for his debut against the Rays on Saturday. At least temporarily, he steps into a rotation that includes Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, José Buttó and Sean Manaea.

If Scott sticks in the rotation, right-hander Adrian Houser could be the odd man out. Manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters that Houser will be available out of the bullpen for next week’s series against the Cardinals, which runs from Monday through Wednesday (video link via SNY). It’s not clear whether that’ll be a permanent move. The Mets are off next Thursday before playing on 13 straight days between May 10-22.

Mendoza suggested the Mets haven’t determined how they’ll proceed for that nearly two-week stretch. They could operate with a six-man rotation to give their starters an extra day of rest. If they want to go back to a five-man rotation, the decision would likely come down to optioning Scott back to Triple-A Syracuse or keeping Houser in relief. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote last night the Mets are committed to giving Scott at least two starts — tomorrow’s outing in Tampa Bay and a home start next weekend against the Braves — before determining whether he should stick in the rotation.

Scott has had an excellent five-start run to begin his time in Triple-A. Over 25 1/3 innings, he owns a 3.20 ERA behind a massive 38.3% strikeout rate. Houser, on the other hand, has had a tough first month in Queens. Acquired alongside Tyrone Taylor in an offseason deal with Milwaukee, Houser held a rotation spot through April. He has allowed 8.14 earned runs per nine across six starts as he’s struggled to find the strike zone.

The 31-year-old righty has walked nearly 15% of opposing hitters. He has issued multiple free passes in all six appearances, including four walks over five innings in yesterday’s outing against the Cubs. Houser’s strikeout rate has dropped to a career-low 11.7%, while his 44.4% ground-ball percentage is his lowest since 2018.

Houser was a decent back-end starter for Milwaukee a year ago. In 111 1/3 innings, he turned in a 4.12 ERA with a personal-best 7.1% walk percentage. He has never gotten huge strikeout tallies, but last season’s 20% mark was far better than he has managed thus far. While Houser’s velocity hasn’t significantly changed, he clearly has yet to find his command.

That could push him into low-leverage relief if Scott hits the ground running and the Mets want to stick with a five-man starting staff. New York doesn’t have the luxury of sending Houser to the minor leagues. He has over five years of service time, so he’d have to agree to an optional assignment and would have the right to test free agency if he were outrighted off the 40-man roster.

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