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Latest On Mets’ Offseason Plans

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In a recent mailbag, Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic fielded questions about the Mets and what remains of the offseason. They report that the club isn’t looking to add to their rotation any further this winter, except perhaps a depth move. They may make an addition at designated hitter, but don’t consider that essential.

The club came into the winter with lots of work to do in addressing the rotation. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander had been traded prior to the trade deadline in the summer and then Carlos Carrasco became a free agent at season’s end. Shortly thereafter, it was reported that David Peterson underwent hip surgery with the recovery set to last beyond the start of the season. All of that left the club with Kodai Senga and José Quintana in two spots, with depth pieces like Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto available as well.

But since then, the club has bolstered that group by signing Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, as well as acquiring Adrian Houser from the Brewers. That currently leaves them with a front five of Senga, Quintana, Manaea, Severino and Houser. Each of Megill, Lucchesi and Butto are still optionable, which will likely have them starting in Triple-A until an injury creates a need at the big league level. Peterson also has an option and can be in Triple-A if there’s no room for him in the majors when he’s healthy. It seems the club will go into the season with that as the depth chart, though a minor league signing or waiver claim could still factor in at some point.

The long run is a bit of a different story. Each of Quintana, Severino and Houser are impending free agents. Manaea signed a two-year deal but can opt out after 2024. Senga has four years left on his deal but has an opt-out after 2025, provided he logs at least 400 innings from 2023 to 2025. That gives the Mets very little long-term certainty their rotation.

They do have some prospects who could perhaps enter the picture in the near future, with Mike Vasil, Dominic Hamel, Christian Scott, Blade Tidwell and Tyler Stuart some of the notable prospects that reached at least as high as Double-A in 2023. But per Britton and Sammon, the Mets “are aware that their prospect pool leans toward mid-rotation or back-end starters, and thus that a significant external addition to their rotation sometime in the next two years is necessary.”

Assuming the Mets are shopping for a front line starter next winter, they should have some options. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Shane Bieber and Walker Buehler currently look to be some of the most exciting names in the free agent class of 2024-25. In terms of veterans, Zack Wheeler, Nathan Eovaldi and Scherzer will be in there as well, with Verlander perhaps joining them depending on the outcome of his vesting option. Robbie Ray can opt out of his deal after the upcoming campaign. Pitchers like Jack Flaherty, Frankie Montas or Severino might have bounceback years and raise their stocks, and the same goes for pitchers with options like Lucas Giolito or Manaea. So much can happen in a year to change a club’s plans but the Mets should be able to find something to their liking, especially with their willingness to spend money.

Turning to the designated hitter situation, the Mets could have some internal options there. The recent signing of Harrison Bader to join Brandon Nimmo in the outfield leaves one spot open on the grass. Starling Marte is the most logical person to line up next to those two, but he’s now 35 and is coming off a frustrating season. He missed almost half the year due to migraines and groin issues, hitting just .248/.301/.324 when in the lineup. Perhaps the Mets will look to get him some semi-rest days via the DH slot. If so, that would leave some outfield playing time for Tyrone Taylor or DJ Stewart. The latter would also be a DH candidate since he’s considered a poor fielder. Mark Vientos will be battling Brett Baty and Joey Wendle for playing time at third but Vientos is also considered weak on defense and could find himself in the DH mix if he hits well enough. Baty hasn’t been graded well for his third base defense in his major league career, for that matter.

That gives the Mets plenty of internal candidates to fill the DH slot, but it’s also possible to see room for an addition. Each of Baty, Vientos and Stewart are still optionable and could find themselves in Triple-A, depending on how things go. That gives the club a path to perhaps bring in a bat. Some of the DH types available in free agency include J.D. Martinez, Joc Pederson, Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Soler, Brandon Belt and Justin Turner. The Mets have previously been connected to Turner and Martinez in rumors this offseason. Turner would arguably be the best fit on the roster since his ability to play some infield means he wouldn’t be strictly limited to a DH role and could allow the club to cycle Marte or anyone else in there. Since Turner is 39 years old, he will also be limited to a short-term deal which will appeal to the Mets, given the way they’ve been operating this winter.

Despite the club’s apparent transition year in 2024, their past spending still has their competitive balance tax figure over the fourth and highest threshold of $297MM. Roster Resource pegs their CBT figure at $321MM right now. As a third-time payor at that level, the Mets will be facing a 110% tax on any further spending. The tax bill won’t be calculated until season’s end, so midseason deals could drop them down, but it seems inevitable that they will be facing another steep bill in the fall. They have shown little hesitation about spending money under owner Steve Cohen but it remains to be seen if they will add another contract to the books when they could give those DH at-bats to internal options.

Mets Sign Harrison Bader

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TODAY: Bader’s $10.5MM guarantee breaks down as a $1MM signing bonus and a $9.5MM salary in 2024, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link).  Up to $350K in incentive bonuses is also available.
JANUARY 5: The Mets have officially announced that they have signed Bader.

JANUARY 4: The Mets are signing Harrison Bader, reports Andy Martino of SNY. It’s a one-year deal worth approximately $10MM, per Martino. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports the salary as $10.5MM for the Vayner Sports client.

Bader, 30 in June, is an elite defensive outfielder who has had mixed results as a hitter and has also struggled to stay consistently healthy. Since his debut in 2017, he has racked up 52 Defensive Runs Saved, 68 Outs Above Average and a grade of 46.6 from Ultimate Zone Rating. All three of those figures place him in the top 10 among all outfielders in the league in that time. He’s also stolen 77 bases in 95 tries.

The offensive side of his game is less impressive, however. He’s hit .243/.310/.396 in his career for a wRC+ of 92, indicating he’s been 8% below league average overall. He has been above average at times, posting a wRC+ of 107 in 2018 and a 108 in 2021, but the past two years have been rough. He split 2022 between the Cardinals and Yankees, getting flipped for Jordan Montgomery at the deadline. He finished that year with a batting line of .250/.294/.356 and a wRC+ of just 85. His production fell even further in 2023, as he hit .232/.274/.348 on the year for a wRC+ of 70, going to the Reds late in the year as the Yankees looked to dump salary by putting Bader on waivers.

Health has also been a concern in each of the past three seasons, with Bader getting into 287 games over that stretch, never getting into more than 103 in any of those seasons individually. Those past three seasons have seen him hit the injured list due to a right rib hairline fracture, right foot plantar fasciitis, a left oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and a right groin strain.

The Mets have been planning for 2024 to be a sort of transition year, signing players to modest deals and making other depth moves as new president of baseball operations David Stearns evaluates the organization before likely ramping up aggressiveness next winter. Luis Severino, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin have all joined the roster via one-year pacts, while the club also acquired Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor from the Brewers. They have claimed Penn Murfee, Zack Short, Tyler Heineman and Cooper Hummel off waivers and given out a number of minor league deals.

Bader will fit into that strategy while bolstering the outfield mix. His strong defense will allow Brandon Nimmo, whose defensive grades dipped in 2023, to spend a bit more time in a corner. Bader also has notable platoon splits, which could perhaps allow the Mets to deploy him selectively. He has hit .262/.330/.494 against lefties in his career for a wRC+ of 121, but .236/.304/.364 against righties for a wRC+ of 82. Nimmo hits from the left side but also fares well against pitchers of either handedness. DJ Stewart is a lefty hitter who mashes righties and is a poor defender to boot, meaning he and Bader could nicely augment each other’s weaknesses.

The outfield picture now includes Bader, Nimmo, Stewart, Taylor and Starling Marte. Nimmo and Marte have injury histories of their own, so perhaps the Mets will use the designated hitter slot to give out occasional rest days and keep everyone healthy over the course of the season.

MLBTR predicted Bader for a two-year, $20MM deal, perhaps with an opt out that would allow him to return to the open market with a better offensive platform. Instead, he lands a straight one-year pact at roughly the same average annual value. The one-year, $10.5MM framework is the exact same as the deal between Kevin Kiermaier, another glove-first outfielder, and the Blue Jays.

Despite the relatively modest offseason, the Mets are still way into competitive balance tax territory. Roster Resource has their CBT figure at $307MM, north of the fourth and final bracket of $297MM. As a third-time payor, they are set to pay a 110% tax on any spending above that line, meaning they could end up paying over $20MM for one year of Bader’s services. However, the tax payments aren’t calculated until the end of the year. If the Mets don’t find themselves in contention this summer, they could move some salary by trading players such as Pete Alonso or José Quintana and alter their final tax status.

Mets Sign Sean Manaea To Two-Year Deal

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The Mets announced the signing of left-hander Sean Manaea to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $28MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, who can opt out following the 2024 season. Manaea will make $14.5MM next season, leaving him with a $13.5MM call on the ’25 option.

Manaea, 32 in February, was a first-round pick by the Royals back in 2013 and was swapped to the A’s alongside Aaron Brooks in the 2015 deal that brought Ben Zobrist to Kansas City. The southpaw made his big league debut in Oakland early in the 2016 season and fashioned a solid rookie year for himself with a 3.86 ERA and 4.08 FIP across 144 2/3 innings of work. Manaea continued to provide mid-to-back end of the rotation consistency for Oakland over the next few seasons, and he owned a career 3.94 ERA (105 ERA+) and 4.15 FIP in 464 innings by the end of the 2018 season. Unfortunately, the lefty’s success was interrupted by shoulder surgery late in the 2018 campaign and he missed nearly all of 2019.

Upon his return to action late in the 2019 season, Manaea more or less picked up right where he left off. In 48 starts from 2019-21, the left-hander posted a solid 3.73 ERA (111 ERA+) with a strong 3.64 FIP. During this stretch, Manaea saw his strikeout rate climb considerably. Though he entered the 2019 season with a rate of just 19.2% for his career, the lefty struck out 24.8% of batters faced over the next three seasons while walking just 5.2% and generating a 43.8% groundball rate that was a near match for his 44.1% figure in the first three seasons of his career. With just one year left before the lefty would hit free agency and the team going nowhere in 2022, the A’s shipped Manaea to San Diego as the Padres in a four-player deal, netting a pair of prospects for the left-hander’s services.

Unfortunately, Manaea began to struggle upon departing Oakland. The lefty’s lone season in San Diego was something of a disaster as he struggled to a 4.96 ERA, 24% worse than league average by ERA+, with a 4.53 FIP. Manaea’s strikeout rate dipped to 23.2%, his walk rate climbed to 7.5%, and he generated grounders at a career-worst 38.2% clip. While the southpaw mostly looked like himself in the first half of the season, with a 4.11 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 100 2/3 innings of work (17 starts), that production fell off a cliff down the stretch as he allowed a whopping 6.44 ERA over his final 13 contests. Those struggles led Manaea to sign a two-year, $25MM deal with the Giants last offseason that gave him the option to return to the free agent market this winter.

At first, Manaea’s time with the Giants saw similarly disastrous results as his final outings with the Padres the previous year. The lefty was booted from the club’s rotation in early May and by mid-June had put together a 5.84 ERA in 49 1/3 frames as opposing batters teed off to the tune of a hefty .474 slugging percentage. However, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted in a recent profile of Manaea, the lefty added a sweeper to his repertoire at the end of May and found massive success with it. Hitters struggled to a .140/.161/.163 slash line against the pitch, swinging and missing at it 35.1% of the times it was thrown.

After adding the sweeper, Manaea quickly found more success with the Giants. He pitched to a solid 3.78 ERA with a fantastic 3.26 FIP in his final 81 frames of the season, and excelled in a late-season return to the rotation with a 2.25 ERA and 3.21 FIP in four September starts. After adding the sweeper midseason, Manaea punched out 24.2% of batters faced while walking 6.6% and generating grounders at a 44% clip reminiscent of his days in Oakland. While the majority of that success came in multi-inning relief, the lefty nonetheless flashed the form that made him a successful mid-rotation arm earlier in his career.

The strong late-season results led Manaea to decline his $12.5MM player option with the Giants and return to the open market. The decision worked out well for the southpaw, as his $28MM pact with the Mets comes with an AAV of $14MM and the ability to return to opt out of the deal once again next winter should he choose to do so. Manaea slightly outperformed the two-year, $22MM prediction MLBTR offered when ranking him 35th on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, earning an additional $3MM annually over the same term. The deal is mostly in line with the market for back-end starters this offseason, which has seen the likes of Nick Martinez ($26MM) and Kenta Maeda ($24MM) earn similar guarantees on two-year arrangements.

By adding Manaea, the club adds another veteran arm to a rotation mix that parted ways with both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline last summer. The southpaw figures to return to starting full-time in joining the Mets, slotting into the middle of the club’s rotation behind incumbents Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana and ahead of fellow offseason additions Luis Severino and Adrian Houser. The addition of Manaea allows the club to utilize the likes of Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto as depth options at the Triple-A level or in the club’s bullpen. The same figures to go for lefty David Peterson when he returns from offseason hip surgery sometime next summer.

The Mets were already over the highest luxury tax threshold of $297MM prior to signing Manaea, That means his full $14MM is part of the Mets’ overage coming into 2024. Assuming they remain over the highest tax threshold all season, the club figures to pay $15.8MM in taxes on Manaea’s salary next season, meaning the club effectively figures to pay $29.8MM for the lefty’s services in 2024. Of course, that’s unlikely to be much of a concern for the Mets as the club paid over $100MM into the luxury tax this past season. With the club’s rotation mix now likely settled, the Mets figure to continue searching for help at third base, DH and in the bullpen going forward.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Mets were signing Manaea to a two-year, $28MM guarantee with an opt-out. The Associated Press reported the salary breakdown.

Mets Claim Diego Castillo From Diamondbacks

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The Mets announced that they have claimed infielder Diego Castillo off waivers from the Diamondbacks. The latter club had designated him assignment two weeks ago when they made their signing of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. official. DFA limbo normally only lasts a week but the clock is paused for the week from Christmas to New Year’s. The Mets’ 40-man roster is up to 39, but it will be full once their deal with Harrison Bader is announced.

Not to be confused with the 29-year-old reliever of the same name who recently signed with the Rangers, this Castillo is a 26-year-old infielder. He was once a Yankees prospect, though that club flipped him to Pittsburgh in the Clay Holmes trade. The Pirates designated him for assignment just over a year ago and traded him to the Diamondbacks.

Between the Bucs and D’Backs, he has 284 major league plate appearances but has hit just .205/.250/.380 in those. He’s fared much better in the minors, including last year. In 556 plate appearances for Arizona’s Triple-A club in 2023, Castillo walked more than he struck out, a 17.4% walk rate compared to a 14.2% strikeout rate. He only hit three home runs but slashed .313/.431/.410 for a wRC+ of 117. He also stole 13 bases and suited up at the three infield positions to the left of first base, as well as left field.

The Mets have been focused on depth this winter, claiming Penn Murfee, Zack Short, Tyler Heineman, Cooper Hummel and now Castillo off waivers in order to bolster their depth in various places. They’ve also given out one-year deals to Bader, Luis Severino, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin.

Castillo still has an option and won’t need to be guaranteed an active roster spot. He can give the club extra depth around the infield, where the Mets will have Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor in regular roles. The third base job is likely up for grabs, with Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Wendle in the mix for playing time there. Castillo and Short figure to be in depth roles who can fill in at various spots throughout the year as injuries dictate.

Mets Showing Interest In Various Starting Pitchers

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The Mets are interested in rotation upgrades and appear to be casting a wide net in that search. Jon Heyman of The New York Post lists Hyun Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea and Shota Imanaga as pitchers they are considering. A report from Joel Sherman of The New York Post echoes those names while also adding Dylan Cease and Brandon Woodruff to the list.

The club has already made a couple of moves to bolster a rotation that has changed a lot in the past year. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were traded at last year’s deadline, then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency. The depth also took a hit when it was reported that David Peterson required hip surgery that would prevent him from being with the club at the start of the upcoming season.

That left Kodai Senga and José Quintana as the two leading incumbents at the start of the offseason, with pitchers like Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi also on hand as options. The Mets have signed since Luis Severino to a one-year deal and acquired Adrian Houser in a trade with the Brewers. Those two likely push Megill and Lucchesi into a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, but Sherman relays that the club would like to add one more arm and push those two further into depth roles. Both pitchers are still optionable and don’t need to be on the active roster if the pitching staff if strengthened.

New president of baseball operations David Stearns is plenty familiar with Woodruff from his time in Milwaukee. He would be more of a long-term play though, unlikely to help the 2024 club too much. He underwent shoulder surgery in October and is slated to miss most of the upcoming campaign, which led the Brewers to non-tender him. But with the Mets looking at 2024 as a sort of transition year with an eye towards more aggressive contention in 2025, perhaps the two sides can line up on some kind of two-year deal. That would allow Woodruff to bank some money while rehabbing and then give the Mets the upside of bolstering their club next year.

If Woodruff can overcome his shoulder woes and return to his previous form, he would upgrade any rotation in the league. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings dating back to his 2017 debut. He has struck out 28.9% of batters faced in that time while walking just 6.5% of them and keeping 42.8% of balls in play on the ground. Health has been a bit of an ongoing issue, as he’s never been able to throw 180 innings in a big league season, but the results on a rate basis have clearly been excellent.

As for Cease, his ERA flared up to 4.58 in 2023 but his peripherals were still above average, including a 27.3% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate. Over the past three years, he has made 97 starts with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. He tallied 12.6 wins above replacement over those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, which puts him eighth on the pitching leaderboard for that stretch.

He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8MM this year and will be due one more raise before becoming a free agent after 2025. That means he will be paid way less than a pitcher of similar skill who is looking for a free agent deal, but it also means the White Sox are setting a very high asking price. It was reported last month that they asked the Reds for four of that club’s top prospects in exchange for Cease. The Reds seem to have given up on the pursuit, signing Frankie Montas instead.

For the Mets, giving up a significant prospect package like that would be a surprise. They have been open about their desire to build a strong prospect pipeline in order to ensure continuous contention and have been even more focused on the long-term plan this offseason. Though Sherman says the Mets continue to check in with the White Sox, the Mets aren’t considered as likely to land him as a team flush with prospects like the Orioles.

Ryu, 37 in March, would line up with the club’s offseason M.O., as they have given out one-year deals to Severino, Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It appears to be a strategy of spreading money around and improving depth while not committing any future money. It’s also possible that any player in this batch who plays well will end up on the trading block if the Mets are out of contention a few months from now.

Given Ryu’s age and recent health history, he is likely looking at a one-year deal as well. He missed most of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he did return last year and toss 52 innings for the Blue Jays with a 3.46 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 6.3% rate and kept 45.6% of balls in play on the ground. He may have been a bit lucky to keep as many runs from scoring as he did, given his .272 batting average on balls in play and 77.6% strand rate. ERA estimators such as his 4.91 FIP and 4.69 SIERA weren’t as enthused with his performance. On the other hand, perhaps he could shake off some more rust and have better results this year now that he’s further removed from his surgery. As recently as 2020, he finished in the top three in American League Cy Young voting.

Manaea, 32 in February, is coming off a couple of shaky years in terms of results. He has been a solid mid-rotation option in his career but his ERA jumped to 4.96 in 2022 and was at 4.44 last year. Digging into his most recent campaign provides more reason for optimism, something recently explored here at MLBTR. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper to his arsenal in late May and had significantly better results, 6.61 ERA before and 3.60 ERA after adding that pitch. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Manaea could land a two-year, $22MM deal this winter.

As for Imanaga, he stands out from the other names on this list as he seems slated for a far more lengthy commitment, though the Mets have been connected to him in the past. MLBTR predicted he could land a five-year, $85MM contract, but with recent reporting suggesting he has enough interest to push past $100MM. Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that today, however, suggesting there are concerns around a 2020 shoulder surgery and also how his tendency to work up in the zone might make him homer prone in the majors.

If the market drops, perhaps the Mets will sense an opportunity to bolster their long-term rotation outlook, in contrast to their other moves this winter. Quintana, Severino and Houser are all set to be free agents after 2024, so they have very little rotation certainty going forward. The 30-year-old Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA in his NPB career and just posted a 2.80 mark in 2023. In addition to the Mets, he’s had interest from clubs like the Red Sox, Giants, Yankees and Cubs, though Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported today that the Cubs aren’t seen as a likely landing spot for the lefty. Imanaga’s posting period end on January 11, giving him less than a week to get a deal done.

Mets Indicating Willingness To Trade Omar Narvaez

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The Mets are telling teams they’re open to dealing Omar Narváez, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. It’s unclear whether any clubs are interested in the left-handed hitting catcher, although the Mets would very likely have to pay down some portion of his contract to facilitate a move.

It’s the second straight offseason in which New York is looking to move a veteran catcher fairly early into a free agent deal. The Mets surprisingly guaranteed Narváez $15MM over two seasons. He made $8MM last year and had a $7MM player option for 2024. The Narváez pickup led the Mets to cut bait on James McCann two seasons into a four-year, $40MM pact. New York paid all but $5MM of the $24MM remaining on McCann’s deal to offload him to the Orioles.

The Narváez signing wasn’t as costly as the McCann acquisition. It started similarly poorly, however. Narváez suffered a significant strain of his left calf within the season’s first two weeks. He was sidelined into June. By the time he returned, rookie Francisco Álvarez had taken over as the starter. Narváez was pushed into a depth role and didn’t perform well.

In 49 games, Narváez hit .211/.283/.297 with a pair of home runs. That’s on the heels of a similarly underwhelming .206/.292/.305 line in 296 plate appearances for the Brewers in 2022. Narváez had a solid ’21 campaign (.266/.342/.402 over 445 trips to the plate) but has been a well below-average hitter in three of the past four seasons. It’s a notable step back from 2017-19, when Narváez was somewhat quietly one of the better offensive catchers in MLB.

To his credit, the eight-year veteran has generally improved behind the plate as his numbers at the dish have regressed. Statcast graded Narváez as an above-average pitch framer each season from 2020-22. That reflected a seemingly concerted effort to improve his receiving after being traded from the Mariners to Milwaukee going into the 2020 season. Narváez has never had a great throwing arm, though, which opponents exploited with more favorable baserunning rules last year. He threw out only six of 52 stolen base attempts, an 11.5% success rate that was well off the 19.8% league average.

Between the calf injury and a replacement-level performance, Narváez had an easy decision to exercise his player option. While his path to playing time in Queens is limited, he wouldn’t have found a $7MM contract if he returned to free agency. It’s hard to envision another team taking the full salary in trade either, but the Mets haven’t had many qualms about paying down contracts. They’ve done so with back-of-the-roster players like McCann and Eduardo Escobar and in blockbuster transactions involving Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

President of baseball operations David Stearns wasn’t involved in the decision to sign Narváez, although he’s familiar with the player from their time in Milwaukee. One of Stearns’ first moves with the Mets was to claim Tyler Heineman off waivers from the Blue Jays. He joins Álvarez and Narváez as the three catchers on the 40-man roster.

Tomás Nido, who has played parts of seven MLB seasons as a Met, remains in the organization after being outrighted in June (a move that coincided with Narváez’s return from the calf strain). Nido hit .281/.336/.393 in 39 games at Triple-A Syracuse after clearing waivers. He’ll make $2.1MM next season as part of a two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration last offseason.

Mets Notes: Marte, Bullpen

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  • The Mets have added several relievers this offseason, including Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin, Austin Adams, and a spate of pitchers signed to minor league contracts.  However, “a more robust signing for the bullpen shouldn’t be ruled out,” The Athletic’s Will Sammon writes, after the Mets address some more pressing needs.  Those hoping for a reunion between Josh Hader and David Stearns in Queens may be out of luck since New York isn’t expected to pursue any long-term deals until at least next offseason, yet the Mets could still look to add a prominent reliever without necessarily shopping at the very top of the free agent market.
  • In other Mets news, Sammon writes that Starling Marte may play some winter ball in his native Dominican Republic this month, as the outfielder is looking to get back to full fitness after an injury-plagued pair of seasons.  Marte battled through leg and groin injuries in 2022 and underwent surgery on both groins following that season, then hit only .248/.301/.324 over 341 plate appearances and 86 games in 2023.  In addition to some lingering after-effects from his groin surgery, Marte also missed time due to a neck strain, migraines, and then another groin strain that brought his season to a close on August 7.  Marte is therefore a question mark as he heads into his age-35 season, and the Mets’ recent acquisition of Tyrone Taylor might not be the last outfield add the club makes, Sammon observes.

Mets, Yankees Among Teams With Interest In Gio Urshela

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The Mets and Yankees are among the teams interested in third baseman Gio Urshela, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic.

Urshela, of course, is no stranger to New York after enjoying a breakout season with the Yankees back in 2019 and spending three seasons in the Bronx. Since that breakout season, Urshela has established himself as an above-average regular in the infield with a .291/.335/.452 slash line good for a 115 wRC+ over the past five seasons with the Yankees, Twins, and Angels. Urshela has paired that above average offensive production with roughly average defense around the infield dirt, where he’s played primarily third base along with some shortstop and brief cameos at both first and second base.

The infielder’s market has been relatively quiet for most of the offseason to this point. The only potential connection to get any buzz to this point in the winter for Urshela was a recent report of interest from the Blue Jays, though even that comes with the caveat that Toronto’s interest may wane in the wake of the Isiah Kiner-Falefa signing. The relatively quiet market for Urshela’s services could connect back to the infielder’s injury-marred 2023 campaign. While he hit a decent .299/.329/.374 during his time in Anaheim, it’s worth noting the fact that he appeared in just 62 games with the club after his season came to an abrupt end in early June thanks to a pelvic fracture. Given Urshela’s downturn in power production as an Angel and the significant injury the 32-year-old is recovering from, it would be understandable if clubs viewed his free agency with some trepidation.

Even in spite of the question marks surrounding Urshela and his injury-plagued 2023 campaign, he still stands as one of the better infield options on the market this offseason. The unusually thin positional market has been hit particularly hard with regards to available infielders, with Urshela standing as one of the best players available behind third baseman Matt Chapman. The likes of Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson, Eduardo Escobar and Adam Frazier make up the next tier of players available, all of whom Urshela rates relatively favorably in comparison to.

Given that reality, it’s no surprise that the Mets would have at least some level of interest in Urshela’s services. Switch-hitting youngster Ronny Mauricio appeared to be in line for a shot to be the club’s regular third baseman in 2024, but the 22-year-old suffered an ACL tear while playing winter ball earlier this month, leaving the club with only Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Joey Wendle as options for regular starts at the hot corner entering next year. Both Baty and Vientos have struggled offensively in the majors and have questions about their defensive ability at third, while Wendle had previously been ticketed for a utility role in Queens next year. The addition of Urshela to the club’s mix would take pressure off of Baty and Vientos while given the Mets a right-handed complement to Wendle who is similarly versatile on defense.

Urshela’s fit with the Yankees is far less clear. With Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe all entrenched at first base, second base, and shortstop respectively, that leaves third base as the only uncertain infield position in the Bronx as things stand. While that’s Urshela’s native position, the club nonetheless has veteran DJ LeMahieu penciled in as the everyday third baseman as well as youngsters like Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera who could step into the club’s infield mix in the event of an injury. Even on the heels of a relative down season by LeMahieu’s standards, the addition of Urshela is not a clear upgrade over the 35-year-old veteran and would likely only serve to clog up the club’s infield mix further. Of course, it’s possible that a trade of a player such as Torres could free up space on the dirt and make a reunion between the Yankees and Urshela more plausible.

Sammon’s report also suggests that the two New York clubs are not the only ones with interest in Urshela’s services, though it does not name any other specific clubs. It’s at least possible Toronto still has interest in adding Urshela even after signing Kiner-Falefa, but other speculative fits for the infielder’s services include the Cubs, Mariners, and Brewers. Chicago currently figures to utilize some combination of Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Christopher Morel at third base, while the Brewers and Mariners appear likely to turn to Andruw Monasterio and Luis Urias respectively at the hot corner.

Mets, Angels Interested In J.D. Martinez

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The Mets and Angels are “eyeing” J.D. Martinez, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman had previously floated both clubs as speculative fits for Martinez but this report seems to point to something with a bit more backing.

Martinez, now 36, was also a free agent last winter. He eventually signed with the Dodgers for one year and $10MM, though he later suggested he could have found more money if he held out a bit longer. “This was an offer that came up seeing if it was something I was interested in doing,” Martinez said in March to Rob Bradford of WEEI. “Obviously, it was a little bit of a pay cut, but if I held up maybe I could have gotten more. We were confident about that. But at the same time I wanted a team that was going to be in October, be in the swing of things all year and give me a chance to win.”

It also allowed him to reunite with Robert Van Scoyoc, the Dodgers hitting coach who previously made Martinez into a premium major league hitter. Joining the Dodgers and reuniting with Van Scoyoc went very well, as Martinez ended up having a strong season. He hit 33 home runs and slashed .271/.321/.572 for a wRC+ of 135, with both that home run tally and the wRC+ figure his personal best since 2019.

Despite all of that, a reunion with the Dodgers is not in the cards. The club didn’t issue him a qualifying offer because they wanted to keep their designated hitter slot open for a pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. Now that they have successfully added Ohtani to the roster, there’s no real way to fit Martinez into their plans. He’s capable of playing the outfield on occasion but logged just 12 innings there this year and none at all in 2022.

Martinez will thus be looking for a club that can accommodate a full-time DH. The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks are two clubs that are open to such an addition and both have been connected to Martinez in rumors, but the Angels and Mets are also viable landing spots.

For the Halos, they have been using their DH slot on Ohtani in recent years. Now that he’s heading to the Dodgers, that spot is open for someone new. They will be facing the challenge of trying to build a competitive team without Ohtani, something they weren’t able to do with him. Martinez is one of the few available free agents that can come close to making up for Ohtani’s lost offensive production.

Though there are reasons why he may not be a perfect fit. Having Ohtani locked into the DH spot in recent years has prevented the club from using that role to give other players a breather. They have several players on the roster with injury concerns, such as Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout and Taylor Ward, who could perhaps benefit from more semi rest days. The Angels would have to weigh the value of adding Martinez to the lineup against that loss of flexibility. On top of that, the current squad skews right-handed. Luis Rengifo is a switch-hitter and then Mickey Moniak and Nolan Schanuel are lefties, but the other projected regulars are all righties.

If they did decide to make a play for him, they should have plenty of room in the budget. Their competitive balance tax figure is currently at $168MM for next year, per Roster Resource. That puts them almost $70MM below the lowest tax threshold of $237MM. MLBTR predicted Martinez for a contract of $40MM over two years, an average annual value of $20MM. The Angels also have some work to do in addressing their pitching staff but there’s space for a Martinez deal if they want to do it.

For the Mets, their regular DH this year was Daniel Vogelbach, though he was non-tendered after a somewhat middling campaign. That leaves their best internal option for the DH spot as DJ Stewart, who shouldn’t stand in the way of someone like Martinez. He finished 2023 on a heater, hitting 11 home runs in 58 games after having his contract selected in July. However, he has been inconsistent in his career, having hit .213/.327/.400 prior to 2023 for a wRC+ of 99. He can play the outfield but is considered a poor defender. He had to settle for a minor league deal last winter, though his hot finish to 2023 led the Mets to tender him a $1.38MM contract for 2024. If Martinez were to be brought aboard, Stewart could be nudged into a part-time role as a platoon guy/pinch-hitter.

Since Martinez will be limited to a short-term deal on account of his age, that could fit with the Mets and their current approach. They are treating 2024 as a sort of transition year, with the aim of having a greater chance at contending in 2025 and beyond. That doesn’t mean they are overly concerned about the budget, however. Their CBT figure is currently pegged at $298MM by Roster Resource, already above the fourth tax line of $297MM. They took on money in the Adrian Houser/Tyrone Taylor deal and have given modest guarantees on one-year deals to Luis Severino, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin.

As a third-time payor that is over the final CBT tier, any additional spending from the Mets would come with a massive 110% tax. But the tax bill for the year isn’t calculated until the end of the season. If they end up out of contention again, they may end up selling off pieces prior to the 2024 deadline. Pete Alonso, José Quintana and Severino are impending free agents making eight figures next year, and Martinez could potentially be on that list as well.

The Mets have also shown a willingness to eat money in deadline deals in order to improve the prospect return, doing so in both the Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander trades a few months back. If the club decides Martinez is a good fit for the roster and could perhaps be a nice trade chip by the summer, they would likely fork over the money to get him signed.

Whether that’s something Martinez would be interested in is a different matter. As quoted up top, he chose the Dodgers in part for the chance to be playing in October. Both the Mets and Angels are less clear-cut contenders right now than the Dodgers were a year ago. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are coming off a World Series appearance while the Jays have made the postseason in three of the past four seasons, giving those clubs stronger cases to pitch to Martinez in terms of competitive chances. Though it’s unknown what kind of financial arrangements each club is willing to consider, which will undoubtedly be a factor in his decision making as well.

Dodgers Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto To 12-Year Deal

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For the second time this month, the Dodgers have made a record-setting free agent strike. Los Angeles announced the signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year contract. The NPB star lands a reported $325MM guarantee, an all-time high for a pitcher. The deal comes with a near-$51MM posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball, bringing the overall commitment north of $375MM. Yamamoto is represented by Wasserman.

“I’d like to thank everyone in the Orix organization, the Dodger organization and all the people close to me who have given me so much support throughout this free-agent process,” Yamamoto said in a statement released by the team. “I am truly excited to wear Dodger Blue and can’t wait to play in front of a packed Dodger Stadium.”

Yamamoto receives a massive $50MM signing bonus and a pair of opt-out opportunities. Those are conditional on the status of his elbow but would allow him to retest free agency after the 2029 and ’31 seasons if he stays healthy. If he doesn’t incur a serious elbow injury, he’d be weighing whether to opt out of the last six years and $170MM once the 2029-30 offseason arrives. The deal does not contain any deferred money.

The right-hander has been the best pitcher in Japan for the past few seasons. He spent parts of seven years with the Buffaloes. By his age-20 campaign, he’d emerged as one of the top pitchers at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Yamamoto turned in a 1.95 ERA that season, kicking off a run of five straight years allowing no more than 2.20 earned runs per nine.

That includes sub-2.00 ERA showings over his final trio of seasons. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award as Japan’s best pitcher in all three years. He worked to a 1.39 ERA over 193 2/3 innings in 2021, followed by a 1.68 mark in 193 frames the next season. Yamamoto somehow turned in an even better year in his final season, pitching to a microscopic 1.21 ERA through 168 frames.

Among NPB pitchers to reach 100 innings, Yamamoto’s ERA was more than half a run lower than anyone else’s. (Shoki Murakami finished second with a 1.75 mark in 144 1/3 frames). Only Shota Imanaga, who is also available to MLB teams this offseason via the posting system, topped Yamamoto’s 169 strikeouts. He punched out 26.6% of opposing hitters against a tidy 4.4% walk rate.

It’s about as dominant a body of work as a pitcher can build before he faces any MLB hitters. The elite production is supported by both scouting and quantitive evaluations of Yamamoto’s arsenal. Evaluators are nearly unanimous in projecting him as a high-octane major league starter. Conservative estimates on his upside point to a future as a high-end #2 starter, while other scouts have pegged him as a potential ace.

Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently broke down Yamamoto’s repertoire. He suggested Yamamoto brandishes three plus or better offerings highlighted by a split-finger that should be among the best in the majors. The righty worked in the mid-upper 90s with his fastball in shorter stints during the World Baseball Classic. He also sports a promising curveball and a cutter as his third and fourth offerings, while evaluators praise his athleticism and command.

Yamamoto would have been in high demand even if he were in his late 20s or early 30s, the standard age for a free agent pitcher. That he debuted in NPB as an 18-year-old and was made available via the posting system only adds to the appeal. Yamamoto turned 25 in August, making him the first marquee free agent pitcher that age since Masahiro Tanaka signed during the 2013-14 offseason. He’ll be paid through his age-36 season.

To the extent there are concerns about Yamamoto, they’re limited to his lack of MLB experience and a smaller 5’10” frame. That hasn’t worried many evaluators, though, and they’re clearly not issues for the Dodgers.

Entering the offseason, it was widely believed Yamamoto would land the largest contract ever for a player coming over from NPB. It’d have been a far bolder prediction to peg him for the largest deal of any pitcher in major league history. That’s what he’ll receive, though, setting the mark in both contract length and guarantee. He’s the first pitcher in recent memory to reach even the 10-year mark. The guarantee edges past the $324MM which Gerrit Cole landed with the Yankees during the 2019-20 offseason. Yamamoto’s deal stretches three more seasons than Cole’s does, but his camp is surely pleased with the guarantee record even if it required slightly lowering the annual salary.

The deal comes with a $27.08MM average annual value. Regardless of the precise salary distribution, that’s the relevant factor for the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax picture. That pushes L.A. well into the third tier of luxury tax penalization. Roster Resource calculates the club’s CBT number in the $282MM range.

The Dodgers are set to pay the tax for a third consecutive season. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for spending between $237MM and $257MM, 62% for their next $20MM, and a 95% clip for spending between $277MM and $297MM. (They’ll be taxed at a 110% rate for any dollars above $297MM.) By pushing the Dodgers from around $255MM to $282MM from a tax perspective, the contract adds roughly $18.2MM in tax payments. It also means that future acquisitions will come with an elevated tax height.

On top of the money to Yamamoto and the tax payments, the Dodgers are on the hook for a huge sum to Orix. Under the terms of the NPB/MLB posting system, a posting fee is calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. That comes out to $50.625MM which the Dodgers owe to the Buffaloes.

It’s a staggering outlay, one that pushes near the $400MM mark in aggregate. It’s the kind of massive strike the Dodgers envisioned in the wake of the Shohei Ohtani signing. The defending AL MVP deferred $680MM of his $700MM deal until 2034-43. That left plenty of money at the front office’s disposal to fix the starting rotation. With Ohtani unable to pitch until 2025, he signed with a team that only had Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller as locks for the Opening Day rotation.

Within a couple weeks, the Dodgers have constructed a star-studded pitching staff to complement their strong bullpen and loaded lineup. Los Angeles acquired and promptly extended Tyler Glasnow. Adding Yamamoto to the group gives them a potentially elite front four. There’s still some risk. Glasnow and Buehler have concerning injury histories, while neither Yamamoto nor Miller has pitched a full season in MLB. Yet it’s also not difficult to see the path to excellent results regardless of whomever takes the final spot. Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove project as the top internal options, but it’d be foolish to rule out the Dodgers adding a veteran arm to continue their all-in push.

Aggressive as the signing is for L.A., they weren’t meaningfully above their top competitors in the bidding. Martino reports that the Yankees put forth a 10-year, $300MM offer, while the Mets put the same $325MM figure on the table. According to Martino, Yamamoto’s camp had sought opt-out provisions after the fifth and eighth seasons in those discussions. The Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Phillies were also in the running down to the final week.

In the end, it seems Yamamoto preferred the Dodgers to the other clubs that were seriously involved. The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that the Mets first presented the $325MM offer, which the Dodgers agreed to match. He’ll join Ohtani, Glasnow, Buehler, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith on a team that’s likely to enter the 2024 campaign as the most popular World Series pick.

The rest of the clubs will look elsewhere. The Mets seem likely to have a fairly quiet offseason, as they reportedly viewed Yamamoto as a unique free agent based on his youth and talent. They’re not expected to pivot to the next tiers of free agency. The Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox could all still be in play for top-of-the-market talent, either on the rotation front or at other positions. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery now stand atop the starting pitching class, while Cody Bellinger is arguably the best remaining overall free agent. The market could also now accelerate for Imanaga, the #2 NPB pitcher who has until mid-January to sign with an MLB team.

Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported that Yamamoto would sign with the Dodgers for more than $300MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the 12-year, $325MM term. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was first with the $50MM signing bonus, while Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the absence of deferrals. Passan reported the two opt-out possibilities.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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