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Mets Avoid Arbitration With Noah Syndergaard

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The Mets and right-hander Noah Syndergaard have agreed to a contract for the 2021 season and will avoid going to salary arbitration, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter).  Syndergaard will earn $9.7MM, which was also what he earned in 2020 when missing the entire season due to Tommy John surgery.

Since Syndergaard went under the knife last March, he isn’t likely to be back in action until May or June.  It isn’t yet clear how much game time Syndergaard will actually miss given the rumors about a possible delay to the start of the 2021 season, though regardless, the righty will have a somewhat limited amount of time to establish that he is both healthy and still somewhat close to his old ace-level self in advance of free agency in the 2021-22 offseason.  A Syndergaard who can check both of those boxes should still put himself in line for a substantial multi-year contract next winter, though his price ceiling will surely be impacted by his recent injury history.

Syndergaard’s status will also heavily impact the Mets’ plans for both this winter and the coming season, as an in-form Syndergaard will provide an enormous boost to the team’s starting rotation.  While the Mets have been linked to Trevor Bauer and other free agent hurlers this offseason, it’s possible the team could wait until the trade deadline in order to see what they have in Sydergaard before making any truly big-ticket pitching additions, which means the Mets could pursue lower-tier arms than Bauer this winter.

Even with Syndergaard’s deal now done, the Mets still have ten other arbitration-eligible players remaining.  Here are those projected salaries, as per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Mets Looking Into Tomoyuki Sugano

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The Mets are “looking into” right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano as they seek to upgrade their rotation, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sugano was posted for MLB clubs earlier this month, and teams have until Jan. 7 to complete a contract with him before that posting window expires.

New York has been prominently connected to Trevor Bauer as a potential free-agent target, but numerous reports have indicated over the past week-plus that George Springer is the team’s primary focus at the moment. Sherman agrees, calling Springer the “centerpiece” of their offseason plans. As such, an expectation has emerged that the Mets will look to the second tier of starting pitchers in their search to augment their rotation, and the 31-year-old Sugano is arguably the best of the bunch.

[Related: Yomiuri Giants Post Tomoyuki Sugano For MLB Clubs]

One of the premier pitchers in Japan, Sugano is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award — Nippon Professional Baseball’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award. After a “down” 2019 season that saw him log a 3.89 ERA, Sugano rebounded with 137 1/3 innings of 1.97 ERA ball in 2020, averaging 8.6 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. Dating back to the 2015 season, Sugano has thrown more than 1000 innings with a 2.19 ERA while averaging better than eight strikeouts and fewer than two walks per nine frames. Of note, Sherman writes that large-market teams may have the upper hand in pursuing Sugano, as NPB’s Giants are viewed as the “Yankees of Japan,” playing their home games at the famed Tokyo Dome.

It’s not clear just what type of arrangement Sugano will command on the open market, but a multi-year deal with an eight-figure annual salary seems reasonable to anticipate. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted a two-year, $24MM deal in his updated free-agent rankings and contract predictions. If a team believes Sugano to be closer to a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in MLB, it’s certainly possible that he could secure a third year or a hike on that annual salary.

The Mets, of course, have Jacob deGrom atop their rotation and will also rely on Marcus Stroman after the righty accepted an $18.9MM qualifying offer. Rookie David Peterson was impressive in a limited 2020 debut, and lefty Steven Matz was also tendered a contract despite a recent downturn in his production. Noah Syndergaard, meanwhile, will be out until this coming summer due to Tommy John surgery.

Emboldened by new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets are a clear win-now team under the watch of returning president Sandy Alderson and newly hired GM Jared Porter. With James McCann and Trevor May already signed to multi-year deals, further additions are a given. If the plan is indeed to add a second-tier arm and make Springer the focus, then Sugano would join Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and Corey Kluber among the best remaining rotation options on the open market.

To this point in his posting window, Sugano has also been connected to the Red Sox, the Rangers and the Blue Jays. Given his stature in Japan, it’s all but certain that Sugano will receive interest from the majority of pitching-needy clubs who are willing to spend in the wake of this year’s revenue losses. In addition to the money owed to Sugano on a new contract, the team that signs him will owe a release fee to NPB’s Giants. That fee is equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter (including option years, incentives, etc.).

Mets Sign Wilfredo Tovar, Tom Windle To Minors Deals

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The Mets announced that they have signed infielder Wilfredo Tovar and left-hander Tom Windle to minor league contracts with invitations to major league spring training. The club also made the previously reported minor league signings of reliever Jerry Blevins and starter Jerad Eickhoff official.

This will be the second Mets go-around for the 29-year-old Tovar, who was previously part of the organization from 2008-15. Tovar saw scant major league experience during that time, totaling 22 plate appearances, but amassed 88 PA with the Angels in 2019. Overall, Tovar has batted .188/.241/.238 with no home runs in 110 major league PA and .268/.342/.352 with 30 homers and 179 steals over 2,011 minor league trips to the plate.

Windle was a second-round pick of the Dodgers in 2013, but he still hasn’t cracked the majors. Along with righty Zach Eflin, Windle was part of the Dodgers-Phillies trade that sent shortstop Jimmy Rollins to Los Angeles in December 2014. Windle, 28, spent time in Triple-A ball with the Phillies in 2018-19 and notched a 4.21 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 across 104 2/3 innings.

Blue Jays, Mets Seen As Strongest Suitors For George Springer

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It’s been a slow-moving market for all of the game’s top free agents, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan shines some light on where things stand with George Springer, reporting that the Blue Jays and Mets are generally viewed as the two strongest possibilities for the longtime Astros slugger.

Newly hired Mets general manager Jared Porter plainly acknowledged in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM last week that Springer is “going to be part of the process” as they evaluate options on the high end of both the free-agent and trade markets (Twitter link, with audio). As one would expect, Porter didn’t tip his hand as to anything more specific, but MLB.com’s Jon Morosi did write recently that the Mets are “focused” on Springer at the moment.

In some ways, it’s not particularly surprising to see. The Mets and Jays are widely seen as the two teams most willing to spend this winter, and both could use an impact center fielder. Other teams who are seen as potentially active clubs have reason not to aggressively pursue Springer.

Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has suggested his team will focus on pitching and look at more “complementary” hitters. The Yankees are focused on DJ LeMahieu, and their outfield is crowded as is. The Red Sox’ most pressing need is in the rotation, given the uncertainty around the health of their veteran starters. The Twins are focused on Nelson Cruz and their pitching staff. The Braves have eschewed this type of long-term deal under GM Alex Anthopoulos and may be more apt to retain Marcell Ozuna if they do make an uncharacteristic outfield splash. The White Sox have already signed Adam Eaton. Houston is an obvious fit, but an extension between the two sides never came together and the price surely hasn’t come down now that Springer has the benefit of open-market bidding for his services.

Free agency is an ever-fluid situation, as various factors can rapidly change a player’s market. A team could trade a current outfielder or lose someone to injury. An owner not expected to spend lavishly could have a change of heart or be swayed by a direct meeting with Springer’s representatives. However, Passan writes that as things stand right now, executives from other clubs view the  Springer market as a two-horse race between the Jays and Mets.

The Mets have already been aggressive early, signing James McCann (four years, $40.6MM) and Trevor May (two years, $15.5MM) to early deals that bolster the club while still leaving Porter and president Sandy Alderson ample payroll space. The Mets currently owe just shy of $95MM to a combined 10 players, though they have just as many yet-unsigned arbitration-eligible players to whom they tendered contracts. Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard and Edwin Diaz headline that group, but most of the group is in line for relatively small-scale salaries. It’s be a surprise if, after their arb work was completed, the current iteration of the Mets roster exceeded a $150MM payroll by much.

The financial outlook in Toronto is even cleaner. Toronto owes about $57.5MM to seven players in addition to forthcoming arbitration raises for two players: Ross Stripling and Teoscar Hernandez. They only have $35MM in guaranteed salaries on the 2022 books, with Tanner Roark, Robbie Ray, Shun Yamaguchi and Rafael Dolis set to come off the books. Signing Springer would likely necessitate a move sending Randal Grichuk elsewhere, and while his remaining three years and $28MM is an overpay, it’s not so glaring that the Jays couldn’t reasonably expect to find a creative solution.

Details On Mets' Pursuit Of J.T. Realmuto

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  • On paper, “the match seemed perfect” between J.T. Realmuto and the Mets to line up on a free agent deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes.  However, “the Mets wanted to move more quickly than Realmuto,” so New York pivoted away from Realmuto to sign the next-best catcher on the market in James McCann.  Time will tell if either side might have erred, whether it was the Mets by being too aggressive or Realmuto by not being aggressive enough.

Rangers Acquire Ryder Ryan From Mets As PTBNL From Todd Frazier Swap

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The Rangers announced Friday that they’ve acquired minor league right-hander Ryder Ryan from the Mets as the player to be named later from the Aug. 31 trade that sent Todd Frazier to New York.

Ryan, 25, was a 30th-round pick back in 2016 who landed with the Mets in the 2017 Jay Bruce trade. He pitched at the Double-A level with the Mets in both 2018 and 2019, working to a combined 3.51 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and 0.82 HR/9 in 77 innings — primarily as a reliever. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked Ryan 24th among Mets farmhands prior to the 2019 season, calling him a potential middle reliever with a consistently average or better breaking ball.

Ryan doesn’t factor prominently into any current ranking of the Mets’ top farmhands, but the Frazier swap still didn’t work out as the now-former front office regime hoped. The veteran Frazier struggled in his return to Queens, hitting .224/.255/.388 in just 51 plate appearances. His 2021 club option was bought out at season’s end, making him a free agent.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets are off to a fast start under new owner Steve Cohen, but there’s more work to be done this offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

After years under the yoke of the much-maligned Wilpons, Mets fans were understandably thrilled when the duo sold the franchise to Cohen – who became the wealthiest owner in the majors as soon as he took over the club. Cohen continued to excite the fans at his introductory press conference, saying: “I’m not in this to be mediocre. I want something great.”

There was a lot of mediocrity during the Wilpon regime, evidenced in part by the Mets’ four-year playoff drought. The two most recent unsuccessful seasons came under general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, whom the team parted with once Cohen took the reins. Cohen brought back Sandy Alderson, Van Wagenen’s predecessor, as team president. Alderson subsequently hired former Diamondbacks executive Jared Porter as the GM.

Even before Porter entered the fray, the Mets got to work in upgrading their roster. They quickly made a significant free-agent addition in former Twins right-hander Trevor May – one of the most coveted relievers on the market – on a two-year, $15.5MM contract. He’ll join Edwin Diaz, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Brad Brach and Robert Gsellman as stone-cold locks for next year’s bullpen. While most of the unit is in place, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club further bolster it with at least one more high-profile pickup. The Mets have interest in the No. 1 free-agent reliever available, former Athletics closer Liam Hendriks, though he’s just one possibility. Brad Hand, Blake Treinen, Trevor Rosenthal, Alex Colome, Kirby Yates and Jake McGee represent other notable options in free agency. On paper, Hand or McGee would make sense for a Mets bullpen devoid of left-handers.

May and the rest of the Mets’ relievers will be throwing to newly acquired catcher James McCann – the first big-money position player signing of the Cohen era. McCann struggled earlier in his career with the Tigers, but the proverbial light bulb seemed to come on during the previous two years as a member of the White Sox. Thanks to his vast improvement in Chicago, McCann scored a four-year, $40.6MM guarantee. Maybe he wasn’t the catcher Mets fans were hoping for (J.T. Realmuto is the best backstop in the game and the top free agent at the position), but McCann makes for a nice consolation prize.

It’s fair to say the Mets aren’t going to stop upgrading their offense with McCann. In fact, it’s quite possible they’ll make a far bigger splash in an effort to better their group of position players. There has been no shortage of speculation connecting the team to free-agent outfielder and Connecticut native George Springer, who MLBTR predicts will land a five-year, $125MM contract this winter. The Mets already have a crowded outfield picture with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Dominic Smith, so it’s unclear what a Springer signing would mean for any of them. Regardless, Springer would presumably take over as the Mets’ starting center fielder – a role Nimmo held in 2020.

The infield has also been a source of rumors centering on the Mets, particularly in the wake of Robinson Cano’s season-long suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. That wiped Cano’s massive salary off the books, but it also took away a player who slashed an excellent .316/.352/.544 with 10 home runs in 182 plate appearances last season. That’s going to be a tough void to fill, though the Mets do have a capable in-house replacement in Jeff McNeil. Of course, that’s assuming the Mets don’t keep McNeil in a super-utility role or even use him in a trade. If he’s not their second baseman, they could steal free agent DJ LeMahieu from the Yankees. Other than LeMahieu, there don’t appear to be any second base upgrades over McNeil in free agency or on the trade front.

There is a bit less certainty on the left side of New York’s infield, but that’s not to say it’s in bad shape. Third baseman J.D. Davis continued to hit in 2020 (albeit not as well as he did the prior year), while Andres Gimenez stepped up as a rookie and outperformed Amed Rosario at short. The Mets could simply stick with Davis and Gimenez, but it’s worth noting both positions feature prominent free agents and trade possibilities. LeMahieu and former Met Justin Turner are available as potential third base choices, while Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons remain unsigned at short.

Trade speculation has pointed the Mets toward Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, who’s due a whopping $199MM over the next years. If acquiring him isn’t in the cards, the Mets could make a splash at short by landing the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story. Both players are under control for just one more season, but considering Cohen is flush with cash, the Mets could conceivably extend either player within the next year. Alderson did indicate earlier in the offseason that he’d prefer to keep his young talent in place, which points more to the free-agent route than a trade. However, he suggested earlier this week that the Mets will be involved in the trade market for high-priced players on long-term contracts (Arenado fits the bill) and players on expiring deals (Lindor and Story check that box).

A year ago at this time, it looked as if the Mets’ rotation would be a major strength in 2020. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman were supposed to be among the premier trios in baseball, but that plan went up in smoke before the season even began. Ultimately, deGrom was the only member of the group who threw a single pitch in 2020. Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March, and Stroman opted out because of COVID-19. The Mets aren’t going to get Syndergaard back until sometime next summer, but Stroman will return after accepting their $18.9MM qualifying offer.

DeGrom, Stroman and David Peterson give the Mets three sure bets for their starting staff as they await Syndergaard’s comeback, but the unit still needs work in the meantime. It’s unclear, for instance, whether Seth Lugo will start or go back to the bullpen in 2021. And while the Mets did keep Steven Matz around on a $5.2MM salary, they’d be hard-pressed to count on him in the wake of his awful season.

Considering the uncertainty surrounding Lugo and Matz, expectations are that the Mets will acquire at least one proven starter in the coming months. The arrival of Cohen seems to make the team a realistic suitor for reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, the leading free agent available at any position. The rest of the free-agent starting class isn’t nearly as exciting, though longtime Yankee Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber, Adam Wainwright and James Paxton are among accomplished arms looking for jobs. The trade market lost an enticing starter when Lance Lynn went from the Rangers to the White Sox earlier this month, but former Cy Young winner Blake Snell (Rays) and Joe Musgrove (Pirates) have the potential to move. Either of those two would help the Mets’ rotation.

Whatever the Mets do for the remainder of the offseason, the Cohen-led organization isn’t going to make moves that hamper their goal of building a perennial winner.

“You build champions, you don’t buy them,” Cohen stated during his introduction. “We’ve got a great core on this team, and we’re going to get better and I plan to make the investments we need to succeed. We want to win now, but we’re also building for the long term.”

Having already spent on May, McCann and Stroman, Cohen has so far lived up to his promise to invest in the roster. It’s anyone’s guess what the Mets will do next, but thanks to their new owner, they’re one of the truly intriguing teams to watch during what has been a slow winter in Major League Baseball.

Mets Notes: Arenado, Thor, Flowers, Rosario

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The Rockies “want to engage with” the Mets regarding third baseman Nolan Arenado, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Danny Abriano of SNY). It’s unclear whether the Mets have interest in Arenado, but team president Sandy Alderson told WFAN on Wednesday that he “expects to be involved” in the trade market for players with large contracts and those with one year of control left, Tim Healey of Newsday tweets. Arenado’s contract certainly counts as “large,” as he’s owed $199MM over the next six years. The five-time All-Star will have a chance to opt out of his deal after next season, but that seems even less likely than before when considering the economic uncertainty across the league.

More from Queens…

  • Right-hander Noah Syndergaard is “on schedule or maybe a little bit ahead of schedule” in his recovery from late-March Tommy John surgery, manager Luis Rojas told reporters (per Mike Puma of the New York Post). Meanwhile, Alderson revealed on WFAN that it’s “reasonable” to expect Syndergaard to return to the majors in June. With Syndergaard shelved, the Mets are slated to begin next year with Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson as their top three starters, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the team add to its rotation before then.
  • Before they signed catcher James McCann to a four-year, $40.6MM contract, the Mets had interest in fellow backstop Tyler Flowers, Healey reports. He would have been a fallback option had the Mets missed out on McCann. While the 34-year-old Flowers has a longer track record of success than McCann, 30, the latter has been the better player over the past couple seasons. Flowers, who spent the previous five years with the division-rival Braves, is coming off a year in which he hit .217/.325/.348 with one home run and a bloated 42.5 percent strikeout rate in 80 plate appearances. He backed up ex-Met Travis d’Arnaud in 2020.
  • Amed Rosario has made 387 of his career 388 appearances at shortstop, though he’ll begin to receive reps at third base, Rojas stated (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). However, Rosario will not get any time in the outfield. “That’s something that he’s not doing, and we’re not planning on doing right now with him,” Rojas said. While Rosario’s still just 25, the former star prospect hasn’t lived up to the hype in the majors so far. He posted an uninspiring .252/.272/.371 line with four homers and a measly 2.7 percent walk rate last season, during which he lost playing time to Andres Gimenez. Barring an offseason acquisition at short, Gimenez looks like the front-runner to start for the club in 2021.

Mets Sign Jerad Eickhoff

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The Mets have signed right-hander Jerad Eickhoff to a minor league contract, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Eickhoff will earn a $1.25MM salary if he makes the majors, and he could pull in another $700K in incentives.

This deal means Eickhoff could get another crack at the National League East, where he has pitched his entire major league career so far. As a member of the Phillies from 2015-19, Eickhoff combined for 440 innings of respectable 4.15 ERA/4.39 FIP ball with 8.1 K/9 and 2.58 BB/9. During his best full season, 2016, Eickhoff put together a 3.65 ERA/4.19 FIP and 7.62 K/9 against 1.62 BB/9 over a career-high 197 1/3 frames.

Unfortunately, injuries – including carpal tunnel syndrome – have hampered what once looked like a promising big league tenure. Eickhoff threw just 5 1/3 innings in 2018 and followed that with 58 1/3 frames in his most recent season, in which he struggled to a 5.71 ERA/6.51 FIP. The 30-year-old spent some time last year with the Padres and Rangers (who drafted him in 2011), but he didn’t return to the majors with either club.

Mets Sign James McCann

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TODAY: The signing has been officially announced. It’s a $40.6MM deal that includes a $600K signing bonus, Tim Healey of Newsday tweets.

DECEMBER 12, 12:48pm: The deal is done pending McCann’s physical, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).  An official announcement from the Mets is expected to come today.

11:21am: The Mets and James McCann are in the “final stages” of completing a four-year deal that will pay McCann around $40MM, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  According to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan, the deal is worth “just a touch over” the $40MM threshold and there is a signing bonus involved.  The contract will be official once McCann passes a physical.  McCann is represented by the Ballengee Group.

After reports surfaced earlier this week that McCann and the Mets were on the verge of a deal, it seemingly took a few days more to reach an agreement.  While McCann was the second-best catcher on the free agent market after J.T. Realmuto, a four-year deal worth north of $40MM is more than double the two-year/$20MM pact that MLB Trade Rumors projected for McCann, making it a very nice score for the 30-year-old.

McCann produced fairly unremarkable numbers as the Tigers’ regular catcher from 2015-18, and was non-tendered following a rough 2018 season.  McCann then joined the White Sox and rather surprisingly broke out, hitting .276/.334/.474 with 25 homers over 587 plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season.  McCann greatly improved both his amount of hard contact and the quality of that hard contact, though he did get some good fortune in 2020 — a .339 BABIP and a .372 wOBA that far outpaced his .329 xwOBA.  (McCann also had a .359 BABIP in 2019.)

McCann’s defense also took a step up, as recently outlined by MLBTR’s Steve Adams…

Behind the plate, McCann has long been adept at controlling the running game. Even with the Tigers, he nabbed 37 percent of those who attempted to take a base against him. One knock on McCann, however, was on his receiving ability — or lack thereof. McCann ranked well below average in terms of framing metrics for much of his time with the Tigers and even early in his White Sox tenure — a flaw that likely influenced the White Sox’ decision to sign Yasmani Grandal to a four-year pact last winter.

Recognizing that shortcoming, McCann spent the bulk of his (2019-20) offseason working with catching guru Jerry Narron to improve his receiving and framing. The results paid off, as Statcast ranked McCann as much-improved in that regard, particularly with pitches at the bottom of the strike zone, which was where he’d struggled most. McCann went from garnering strike calls on just 44.1 percent of pitches at or slightly below the bottom of the zone to an excellent 61.8 percent. One can suggest that there’s some small-sample smoke and mirrors at play, but McCann’s improvement was pronounced enough that it can’t be entirely dismissed as small-sample noise. It would seem that the Mets agree.

A four-year contract for a 30-year-old catcher (McCann turns 31 in June) carries some risk, though making an aggressive play to address a clear roster weakness is the type of boldness Mets fans expected once Steve Cohen bought the team.  At least in the short term, the Mets have now strongly upgraded a position that was a major offseason question mark, and it also sets the table for further transactions.

For one, Realmuto is no longer in the picture, meaning that the Mets can now save their biggest spending splurge for another player….or even players.  As noted by Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, the Mets “stayed in touch with the Realmuto camp” if the McCann talks fell through, but with McCann now signed, a preferred major target like George Springer or Trevor Bauer could potentially be next.

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