MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams
With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.
In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.
For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.
American League
Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)
It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.
Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)
The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.
Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)
There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.
Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)
The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.
Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)
Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.
Which American League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
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Blue Jays 48% (8,909)
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Yankees 24% (4,413)
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Angels 12% (2,177)
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Mariners 8% (1,571)
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Indians 8% (1,570)
Total votes: 18,640
(poll link for app users)
National League
Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)
The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.
Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)
The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.
Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)
One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.
Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)
The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.
Which National League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
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Reds 56% (11,382)
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Phillies 20% (4,066)
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Braves 18% (3,710)
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Cubs 6% (1,211)
Total votes: 20,369
(poll link for app users)
COVID Notes: 7/10/21
The latest on coronavirus situations from around baseball…
- Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm was removed from today’s game in the eighth inning for what manager Joe Girardi described only as reasons related to “COVID protocols.” Officials aren’t required to provide detailed information about COVID-19 situations, and Girardi just told reporters (including NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman) that “we’ll know more as time goes on. That’s all I can give you right now.” It isn’t yet known if Bohm will be placed on the actual COVID-related injury list, and such a placement isn’t necessarily a sure thing — in the event of a close contact situation or perhaps an inconclusive test result, Bohm could be cleared in time for Sunday’s game with the Red Sox. Following a very impressive 2020 rookie season, Bohm has hit a sophomore slump, hitting only .243/.298/.343 with six home runs in 329 PA this year.
- The Yankees placed right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga on the COVID-related injury list prior to today’s game with the Astros. Along with the placement of Miguel Andujar on the regular 10-day IL due to a left wrist strain, New York called up right-handers Albert Abreu and Brooks Kriske from Triple-A to fill the spots on the 26-man roster. Yankees manager Aaron Boone also didn’t give specifics on Loaisiga’s status to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and other reporters, except to say that Loaisiga “feels good.” The righty has been a force out of the Yankees’ bullpen this season, posting a 2.11 ERA, 63.9% grounder rate, an outstanding 5.5% walk rate and an above-average 25.1% strikeout rate over 47 innings.
Yankees Release Robinson Chirinos, Nick Goody
The Yankees have released catcher Robinson Chirinos and right-hander Nick Goody from their minor league deals, reports Bryan Hoch of MLB.com (Twitter link). As expected, utilityman Derek Dietrich has also been let go after triggering his opt-out clause.
Chirinos signed with the Yankees over the winter. He was hit by a pitch in Spring Training, though, fracturing his right wrist. That injury required surgery, delaying the veteran’s debut with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Chirinos ultimately appeared in just thirteen games with the RailRiders. He mashed at a .278/.422/.556 clip but also struck out in 16 of his 45 plate appearances. With the Yankees catching duo of Gary Sánchez and Kyle Higashioka set, Chirinos will look for another opportunity elsewhere. The 37-year-old has appeared in parts of nine major league seasons, compiling a .231/.325/.431 line.
Goody, like Chirinos, signed with New York last offseason. It was his second stint in the organization, as the 29-year-old began his MLB career with the Yankees in 2015. The 29-year-old has pitched to a 2.86 ERA with an elite 36.5% strikeout rate and a lower than average 8.2% walk percentage with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. That wasn’t enough to earn a place in a crowded Yankee bullpen, but it should draw the attention of other clubs with more glaring relief needs. Goody has a 4.19 ERA/3.84 SIERA in parts of six big league seasons.
Derek Dietrich To Opt Out Of Contract With Yankees
Derek Dietrich is opting out of his current contract with the Yankees and electing to head back to free agency, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter).
The 31-year-old infielder has not been called up to the Majors, so he will look for an opportunity to do so elsewhere. With the Triple-A RailRiders this season, Dietrich slashed a typically Dietrichian .215/.413/.393 with four doubles and five home runs in 143 plate appearances. Dietrich split his time between first, second, and third. He has also appeared in the outfield corners, but not since 2019 with the Reds.
Dietrich had an unusual 2019 season with the Reds, bull-rushing pitching in the early going as he hit 17 home runs and slashed .260/.366/.707 through the end of May. From June 1st until the end of the season, however, Dietrich hit .117/.294/.227 with two home runs over 161 plate appearances. Those disparate showings came together for a .187/.328/.461 line. He put up a similar season with the Rangers in 2020, slashing .197/.347/.459 over 75 plate appearances.
For all the flaws in his game, Dietrich has been better than average with the bat by measure of wRC+ in every season of his career save for his rookie campaign in 2013. Even these past two seasons, as his batting average has dipped below the Mendoza line, Dietrich posted 102 wRC+ in 2019 and 124 wRC+ in 2020. The hallmarks of his game of late have been big-time power (.275 ISO in 2019 and 262 ISO in 2020) alongside some real batted ball difficulty (.176 BABIP in 2019, .200 BABIP in 2020).
Dietrich’s isn’t exactly known as an easy personality in the clubhouse, but those teams desperate for offense could very well look to the former second round pick. The Yankees, of course, chose to trade for Rougned Odor rather than call up Dietrich — which perhaps played a part in Dietrich’s decision to opt out and seek greener pastures.
East Notes: Rays, Walls, Yankees, Britton, Mets, Peterson, Syndergaard
The Rays have activated Taylor Walls from the injured list, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The move comes after Luis Patino was optioned back to Triple-A yesterday. Walls would give manager Kevin Cash a five-man bench, which would be unusual for the Rays. Still, for now, Walls is back on the active roster, having recovered from a bout of wrist tendonitis. Certainly, the return of Walls puts the immediate future of Wander Franco into question, though there’s been no indication of a roster move at this time. For what it’s worth, Walls held his own with a .222/.337/.333 line in 95 plate appearances, good for a 96 wRC+to pair with stellar marks on the defensive side of the ball — he was credited with 8 DRS, 2.0 UZR, and 2 Outs Above Average in just 214 1/3 innings at short. Staying on the East Coast…
- Zack Britton is throwing off the mound today for the first time since going on the injured list. He is eligible to return to the Yankees on Monday, per Kristie Ackert of the NY Daily News (via Twitter). Britton has just five appearances on the season. The Yankees might very well try to get him back into games ahead of the All-Star break so as to allow for a measured ramping up process.
- As for the Mets, David Peterson has been diagnosed with a strained right oblique that will keep him out for around eight weeks, at best guess, but maybe less, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). It hasn’t been a great year for Peterson, who owns a 5.54 ERA/4.77 FIP through 115 starts totaling 66 2/3 innings.
- Noah Syndergaard, meanwhile, was throwing today, but he timetable remains the same. The Mets are looking tentatively at a September 1st return for Thor, notes DiComo.
Diamondbacks Trade Tim Locastro To Yankees
The Yankees and Diamondbacks announced an agreement on a trade sending outfielder Tim Locastro from Arizona to New York in exchange for minor league right-hander Keegan Curtis.
Locastro, 28, is one of the fastest players in the Majors and gives the Yankees a potential outfield option, though he’s in the midst of a rough year at the plate. After slashing .290/.395/.464 in 82 plate appearances with the D-backs in 2020, Locastro is hitting just .178/.271/.220 in 133 trips to the plate so far in 2021.
Overall, the fleet-footed Locastro a career .234/.339/.324 hitter who has gone 31-for-34 in stolen base attempts. Locastro strikes out at a below-average clip but doesn’t walk as much as one might expect; rather, the source of his OBP is a penchant for getting plunked (as explored at length and in entertaining fashion in one of the many indispensable videos at Foolish Baseball). For a player with Locastro’s speed, getting to first base by any means necessary is particularly valuable, as he’s always a threat to swipe a base.
It’s not the impact move most Yankees fans would hope to see with the their first move of deadline season, but Locastro gives the club a strong glove and some needed depth. Aaron Hicks has already been lost for the season, and fellow outfielder Clint Frazier is now undergoing testing after exiting last night’s game due to dizziness. Locastro can still be optioned for the remainder of the 2021 season and is controllable through the 2024 campaign via arbitration.
For the D-backs, Locastro figures to be the first of several players traded between now and July 30. They’ve been MLB’s worst club by a wide margin and are generally expected to be willing to listen on veteran players as they look to restock the farm system.
The 25-year-old Curtis, while not regarded as one of the Yankees’ top prospects, does give the Snakes an interesting arm to add to the upper levels of their system. Since being selected in the 22nd round of the 2018 draft, Curtis has tallied 65 2/3 innings out of the bullpen and pitched to a 3.29 ERA across three levels in the Yankees’ minor league ranks. He’s currently at the Double-A level, where he’s posted a 3.94 ERA while punching out 27 of the 69 batters he’s faced (39.1 percent) against seven walks (10.1 percent).
Lindsey Adler of The Athletic (Twitter link) first reported the terms of the agreement.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/1/21
Today’s minor moves from around the game:
- The Reds announced that outfielder Scott Heineman has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Louisville. He’ll remain in the organization as non-roster depth. Cincinnati acquired Heineman from the Rangers over the winter, but he struggled in a brief look at the major league level before they designated him for assignment this week. The 28-year-old has a .172/.249/.325 line across 173 career MLB plate appearances, but he owns a much stronger .302/.368/.458 mark in parts of three Triple-A seasons.
- The Yankees announced they’ve acquired outfield prospect Aldenis Sanchez from the Rays. The move completes the teams’ June 17 trade that sent first baseman Mike Ford to Tampa Bay. Sanchez, 22, joined the Rays out of the Dominican Republic during the 2016-17 international signing period. He has yet to make it beyond rookie ball. Sanchez never appeared on a Rays system ranking at Baseball America; in March 2020, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs called the right-handed hitter a “speedy (prospect) with some contact skills.”
Steinbrenner: Yankees “Not Contemplating” Selling At Deadline
The Yankees’ season of underwhelming reached a crescendo with a stunning loss last night that saw them blow a four-run lead by yielding seven runs in the ninth inning. New York currently sits at 41-39 with a -3 run differential, an 8.5-game deficit in the AL East and a 5.5-game deficit in the AL Wild Card race. There’s been plenty of speculation about the team selling off some veteran pieces prior to the July 30 trade deadline, but Hal Steinbrenner made clear today when addressing reporters that he has no such plans.
“That’s not a direction I’m contemplating,” Steinbrenner said when asked whether the Yankees might be deadline sellers (Twitter links via Newsday’s Erik Boland). To the contrary, it seems rather that Steinbrenner expects his team will work to improve. The Yankees have taken plenty of flak for being the game’s most valuable franchise but staunchly refusing to exceed the luxury tax for a third straight season. Steinbrenner now, however, says he’ll consider crossing that line at the deadline if it gets his team over the edge.
The Yankees currently sit just under $4MM shy of the $210MM luxury barrier, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and it’s no coincidence that they so narrowly managed to limbo under that bar. The vast majority of the Yankees’ offseason moves made ownership’s desire to avoid that line transparent. The club targeted Jameson Taillon and his $2.55MM salary as its second rotation piece after inking Corey Kluber for a year and $11MM. The Yanks also traded right-hander Adam Ottavino to the archrival Red Sox in a trade that lopped around $8MM off their luxury obligations. (Ottavino, conversely, has pitched quite well for the first-place Red Sox.)
Late signings of Justin Wilson, Darren O’Day and Brett Gardner were all structured to include player options which were unlikely to be exercised but nevertheless lowered the luxury commitment on those additions because player options count as “guaranteed” money and thus drop a contract’s average annual value. From the jump this past offseason, nearly every decision the Yankees made was colored by a desire to drop under the luxury barrier.
If the Yankees do indeed end up crossing the line, the question will naturally be one of whether it’s too little or too late. Exceeding the barrier will come with the maximum dollar-for-dollar tax rate possible on any overages: 50 percent for the first $20MM, 62 percent for the next $20MM and 95 percent for any spending thereafter. It’s unlikely at this point that they’d spend to reach the top level of penalization, of course, but exceeding the tax this year would again subject the Yankees to luxury penalization in 2022 — assuming some iteration of the current system remains in place after the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement. Were they to remain under the tax, they’d “reset” their penalty level and only be subject to the first tier of luxury payments in 2022.
Steinbrenner also voiced confidence in general manager Brian Cashman, manager Aaron Boone, and the team’s coaching staff (Twitter links via Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News and MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). Steinbrenner noted that his GM has “done a good job” assembling the roster and praised his communication skills, scouting acumen and knowledge of analytics while suggesting that a clearly talented roster simply hasn’t performed up to standards. As for Boone and the coaches, Steinbrenner called them “absolutely” the right people to lead the team.
Yankee fans who’ve followed the team since Hal’s father, George, was running the ship are no doubt aware of the likelihood that the elder Steinbrenner would’ve cleaned house in the front office and the dugout by now. But Steinbrenner emphasized that he’s his own person while pointing out that oftentimes, his father’s more rash personnel decisions didn’t actually pay dividends.
On the whole, Steinbrenner’s comments are something of a mixed bag for Yankee fans. While many are surely relieved to hear that the club will finally consider exceeding the tax line, there’s no doubt frustration that said point wasn’t arrived upon back in the offseason. As with any struggling team, fans have become increasingly frustrated with the front office and field staff alike, so the vote of confidence in Cashman and Boone may not be as popular as it once would’ve been.
Nevertheless, Steinbrenner’s comments are telling of the Yankees’ direction not only over the next 30 days but perhaps in the coming offseason and beyond. A prolonged losing streak could ultimately change the organization’s calculus, but for the time being it seems we should expect today’s pickup of outfielder Tim Locastro in a small trade with the Diamondbacks to be the first of multiple acquisitions as the Yankees look to change their fortunes in what has been a challenging 2021 campaign.
Yankees Option Albert Abreu, Reinstate Justin Wilson
9:40 AM: The Yankees have announced the corresponding roster move, with Justin Wilson being activated from the injured list. Wilson last appeared almost exactly a month ago on May 28th. He owns a 6.08 ERA across 13 1/3 innings so far this season, though he was attempting to pitch through discomfort.
7:38 AM: The Yankees optioned right-hander Albert Abreu to Triple-A following last night’s defeat of the Angels. An additional roster move is likely to follow sometime before today’s 7:05 PM start.
This was already Abreu’s sixth different stint with the big-league club this year, though not every time on the roster has resulted in mound work for the 25 year old. He tossed two scoreless innings yesterday in his sixth appearance of the year. Though used sparingly, he’s been effective as a multi-inning reliever for manager Aaron Boone.
The one-time starter has been used in a similar capacity in Triple-A, tossing 15 2/3 innings in nine appearances with a 4.02 ERA. He has allowed 10 walks in that time, but he’s also proved an effective strikeout artist, recording 29 strikeouts for a robust 43 percent strikeout rate.
AL East Notes: Mancini, Kirk, Anderson, McKay, Kluber
In a bit of good news for Orioles‘ fans, Trey Mancini will participate in this year’s Home Run Derby, per The Athletic’s Dan Connolly (via Twitter). Mancini should provide some feel-good coverage for the 2021 All-Star festivities. Having missed last season while being treated for stage 3 colon cancer, Mancini has returned to lead the Orioles with a .260/.337/.466 triple-slash line with 14 home runs and 52 runs batted in, good for a 121 wRC+. Let’s check in with the other clubs in the AL East…
- Alejandro Kirk has joined the Blue Jays‘ Triple-A club in Trenton with the possibility of returning from the injured list as early as July 1, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Kirk must first prove himself ready in Triple-A. After making the team out of spring training, Kirk has been out since May 2nd with a flexor strain. The Jays have also been without starter Danny Jansen for almost three weeks now. Riley Adams, who has three options remaining, will head back to Trenton whenever Kirk is ready.
- Nick Anderson threw his second bullpen session for the Rays, and he appears on track for an August return. per Adam Berry of MLB.com (via Twitter). Anderson’s value as a bullpen ace is well-known after last year’s breakout campaign — 0.55 ERA in 16 1/3 regular-season innings. The Rays leaned hard on Anderson to get them to the World Series: he appeared in both games of the Wild Card sweep of the Blue Jays, two of the five games in their ALDS win over the Yankees, and three more apiece in the ALCS and World Series.
- Brendan McKay is in line for a 30-pitch bullpen soon, Berry also notes, and if that goes well, he’ll start to build his strength up to a starter’s workload. McKay last appeared in competitive action in 2019, when he threw 49 innings at the big-league level with a 5.14 ERA/4.03 FIP.
- The Yankees don’t expect to get Corey Kluber back until August at the earliest, but it could be as late as September, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (via Twitter). Kluber gave the Yankees exactly what they’d hoped in his ten starts: 3.04 ERA/3.77 FIP in 53 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, he also realized their fears when he suffered a shoulder strain that will ultimately knock him out for more than half the year.