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Astros, Blue Jays, Pirates, Yankees Continue To Be Interested In Yariel Rodriguez

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Yariel Rodriguez’s market continues to percolate, as the Astros, Blue Jays, Pirates, and Yankees “are still in the bidding for” the right-hander’s services, according to reporter Francys Romero (X link) earlier this week.  Romero’s post came prior to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s deal with the Dodgers, as Romero suggested that Rodriguez’s suitors were first waiting for Yamamoto to sign.

This would seemingly refer to the Yankees and Blue Jays in particular, who were known to be in the running for Yamamoto’s services.  Toronto was a bit more on the periphery of the hunt while the Yankees were seemingly one of three or four finalists, joining the Mets and Giants in falling short of the Dodgers in the bidding for the Japanese ace.  Presumably neither the Yankees or Jays would’ve been in on Rodriguez if they had signed Yamamoto, so the presence of two big spenders still in the market is good news for Rodriguez and his reps at WME Baseball.

It should be noted that Romero didn’t state that these four teams were finalists for Rodriguez, or that any other known suitors were out of the running.  The Astros, Jays, Pirates, and Yankees were all listed among the 10 interested teams in Romero’s initial report about Rodriguez in early November, and that group (which also included the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, and White Sox) has grown to include the Rays, Red Sox, and Padres in subsequent reports.

Rodriguez is something of a wild card in the free agent pitching market, given that he has spent most of his career pitching in Cuba, he worked mostly out of the bullpen with the Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball from 2020-22, and he didn’t pitch at all in 2023 (apart from the World Baseball Classic) since he sat out the NPB season trying to get released from his contract with the Dragons.  However, Rodriguez doesn’t turn 27 until March, and there is enough intrigue in his upside as a starter that MLBTR ranked him 28th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a four-year, $32MM contract.

This price point would put Rodriguez in range for even lower-payroll teams, even if such clubs are taking more of a risk in such a financial commitment for a pitcher with no Major League track record.  For the Pirates specifically, $32MM for Rodriguez would rank as one of the eight most expensive contracts in the franchise’s history, so it would seem rather aggressive for a Bucs team just coming out of a rebuild to suddenly splurge on an unproven arm.  That said, the Pirates are known to be looking for more rotation help, and they could have enough faith in Rodriguez’s upside that they could view something like a $32MM investment as a potential bargain.

International signings have been the backbone of the Astros’ run of success over the last decade, in the form of inexpensive deals for future stars like Jose Altuve or Framber Valdez, or Houston’s more significant investment in a five-year, $47.5MM deal for Yuli Gurriel when he came to the big leagues from Cuba during the 2016 season.  Current Astros general manger Dana Brown naturally wasn’t in change of the front office back in 2016, though he did suggest that his team was looking to add “a legit third starter or better” this offseason, while acknowledging that the Astros were working with a somewhat limited amount of spending space.  Roster Resource projects Houston’s 2024 payroll to sit almost exactly at the $237MM luxury tax threshold, which is notable since the Astros have only once (in 2020) exceeded the tax line in their history.

Signing Rodriguez would be an interesting fallback position from Yamamoto for either New York or Toronto.  Rodriguez’s lack of track record wouldn’t necessarily solidify a rotation that already has a couple of injury-related question marks in Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon, as well as the unproven Clarke Schmidt as the projected fourth starter.  However, the Yankees might view Rodriguez as an upside play as a de facto fifth starter, or perhaps even a bullpen addition if he doesn’t work out as a starter.

The same could be said about Rodriguez’s possible usage on the Blue Jays’ staff, even if Toronto’s rotation is a little more defined.  Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi project as the top four, with Alek Manoah penciled in as the fifth starter for now despite all of the uncertainty in the wake of Manoah’s rough 2023 season.  Adding Rodriguez would give the Blue Jays more depth if Manoah can’t bounce back, or perhaps the Jays would then feel more emboldened to trade Manoah or even Kikuchi to address other needs in the lineup.

Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills

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Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.  Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).

Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….

  • Mets: $100,781,932
  • Padres: $39.7MM
  • Yankees: $32.4MM
  • Dodgers: $19.4MM
  • Phillies: $6.98MM
  • Blue Jays: $5.5MM
  • Braves: $3.2MM
  • Rangers: $1.8MM

As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster.  A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year.  Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.

A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season.  A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM.  These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons.  This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).

The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending.  Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts.  The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.

This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention.  Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.

As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold.  Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere.  For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.

Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee.  The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records.  The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.

The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league.  The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.

Latest On Yankees’, Mets’ Failed Pursuits Of Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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The Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes ended late last night when the 25-year-old right-hander agreed to a 12-year deal with the Dodgers worth $325MM. The massive figure is a record for free agent pitchers (aside from two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with LA earlier this month) as Yamamoto slightly surpassed Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM guarantee with the Yankees.

Among the most aggressive suitors for Yamamoto’s services aside from the Dodgers were the two New York teams. Both the Yankees and Mets met with Yamamoto multiple times and reportedly made offers that appeared to match or even exceed LA’s in terms of aggressiveness. Previous reporting indicated that the Mets offered Yamamoto a matching $325MM guarantee while the Yankees offered $300MM over just ten years, boosting the deal’s average annual value to $30MM. In the aftermath of Yamamoto’s decision to head to Los Angeles, more details regarding both clubs’ ultimately fruitless pursuits of the right-hander have come to light.

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Yankees’ offer to Yamamoto exceeded that of the Dodgers’ in a few key areas despite offering $25MM less in terms of total guarantee. In addition to the aforementioned higher AAV, Rosenthal indicates the Yankees were willing to offer Yamamoto opt-out opportunities after the 2028 and 2032 seasons, both one year earlier than the opt-out opportunities he received in his contract out west. The differences in those offers are more meaningful than they may immediately appear. Had Yamamoto signed in the Bronx, he would have had the opportunity to hit free agency for a second time before his 30th birthday, while his deal with the Dodgers will offer him his first chance to opt-out after his age-30 season. Generally, players younger than 30 are widely considered to be far more attractive candidates for long-term deals than those older.

In addition to the potentially more lucrative opt-out situation, the Yankees’ offer to Yamamoto was not back-loaded, as his deal with the Dodgers reportedly is. That the contract Yamamoto ultimately agreed to is back-loaded is no small factor; not only does that mean that the deal’s present day value is diminished somewhat, it also means Yamamoto would be leaving a larger portion of his guaranteed money on the table by opting out of his contract with the Dodgers. No such concern would exist with the Yankees’ offer.

For the Mets’ part, Mike Puma of the New York Post indicates that the club’s 12-year, $325MM offer to Yamamoto was “among the first received” by the right-hander, and that the club was not offered the chance to improve upon that offer. Puma goes on to note, however, that the club may not have significantly raised their bid above that $325MM figure due to the roughly $50MM posting fee the club would have owed to Yamamoto’s NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes, had a deal come together.

The Mets have long been expected to largely avoid top-of-the-market bidding wars for starting pitchers this offseason if they were to miss on Yamamoto, and club owner Steve Cohen seemingly confirmed that stance in conversation with reporters today. As relayed by Puma, Cohen discussed a more cautious approach to free agency this offseason than in previous seasons under his ownership.

“We’re going to be thoughtful and not impulsive and thinking about sustainability over the intermediate long-term, but not focused on winning the headlines over the next week,” Cohen said. “I think there’s a couple of ways to build a team… We’ll build it. It will happen. Slowly and surely you will see changes and improvements.”

Such a measure approach to the 2023-24 offseason has seemed to be a possibility in Queens ever since veteran right-hander Max Scherzer indicated last summer that the club viewed 2024 as “a kind of transitory year” with 2025 and 2026 as the club’s true focus in terms of returning to contention. Since then, the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto has largely taken center stage as the club has made smaller moves on the periphery, adding Luis Severino and Joey Wendle in free agency while picking up Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor in trade.

One factor that may have helped the Dodgers in their pursuit of Yamamoto, as discussed by Rosenthal, is the $50MM signing bonus he’ll receive as part of the contract. Rosenthal notes that Yamamoto’s bonus, paid entirely in 2024, would not be subject to California state taxes so long as he is not a resident of the state. That structure reportedly could save the right-hander as much as $7.2MM. Perhaps even more valuable than that savings would be the Dodgers’ unique position to accommodate his transition to the majors. NPB teams typically use six-man rotations with starters expected to pitch just once a week, making the move to MLB a significant jump in workload for overseas arms.

As noted by Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times, the Dodgers are all but guaranteed to plan on a six-man rotation for the 2025 season given the expected return of Ohtani to the mound that season. The lessened workload could help Yamamoto stay healthy throughout his big league career, which DiGiovanna relays is perhaps the primary concern of scouts regarding his future in the majors thanks to his undersized 5’10”, 176lb frame. Of course, there’s no guarantee that such an arrangement will be the plan for the Dodgers in 2024, when Ohtani will be rehabbing UCL surgery. Even so, DiGiovanna notes that the Dodgers’ starters appeared on regular rest in just 42 regular season games last season, leaving the door open for Yamamoto to get extra days of rest built into his schedule even if the club doesn’t go with a proper six-man rotation.

Giants Out Of Bidding For Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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9:06pm: Yamamoto could make his decision within the next 48 hours, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

7:55pm: MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that Yamamoto has at least one offer of $300MM or more in hand.

6:59pm: The Giants have been informed they’re out of the running for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, reports Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (X link). While there’s no indication that Yamamoto has made his final decision, Pavlovic adds the Giants expect he’ll sign with the Dodgers or one of the New York clubs.

Andy Martino of SNY tweets that the Mets have not received any indication they’re out of the running. That’s also true of the Yankees, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). Heyman indicates the Yankees have put a “significant bid” on the table.

Crossing San Francisco off the list technically leaves six known finalists. In addition to the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, the Blue Jays, Phillies and Red Sox have been involved. Philadelphia has made an offer this week. That said, reports have cast the Phils, Jays, and (to a lesser extent) the Sox as longer shots.

Yamamoto has been weighing offers throughout the week. While he technically has until the evening of January 4 to sign, the expectation is that he won’t take things to the wire. That his camp is now in the process of whittling the field lends credence to the idea that a decision might not be far off.

The bidding seems as if it’ll surpass $250MM, before accounting for a posting fee owed to the Orix Buffaloes that could tack on another $45-50MM. That fee is in proportion to the contract size, calculated as 20% of the deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of additional spending. That reflects Yamamoto’s atypical youth for a free agent pitcher (25) and his sheer dominance in Japan. Named NPB’s best pitcher three years running, he’s coming off a 1.21 ERA while striking out nearly 27% of opponents in 164 innings.

It’s a tough blow for the Giants, who come up short on another top-tier free agent. The Giants have missed on pursuits of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner and Shohei Ohtani within the past two offseasons alone, while their deal with Carlos Correa fell through because of the physical. Yamamoto will join that list. San Francisco did land KBO star Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113MM pact — the largest deal of Farhan Zaidi’s tenure as baseball operations president — but they haven’t gotten a truly elite free agent in some time.

San Francisco still has plenty of spending capacity as they decide on their next steps. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $158MM. That’s about $30MM below this year’s Opening Day figure. From a luxury tax perspective, they’re almost $45MM south of the base threshold. That opens the possibility for a run at any of the top remaining free agent talents. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery headline the rotation class, while Matt Chapman was on the radar earlier in the offseason. So was the top available hitter, Cody Bellinger, although the Lee signing seems to rule out a pursuit of another lefty-swinging center fielder.

Yankees, Nick Burdi Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees have agreed to a minor league pact with hard-throwing right-hander Nick Burdi, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network. The Apex Baseball client will be in big league camp this spring.

Selected 46th overall out of Louisville by the Twins back in 2014, Burdi joined the professional ranks as a power-armed closer who could potentially have a fast track to the big leagues. He’d obliterated the opposition in college, posting a 1.79 ERA while fanning a comical 47% of his opponents during his NCAA career. He looked the part of a big league reliever following the draft, too, climbing to Double-A less than a year after being drafted and posting gaudy strikeout totals along the way.

As is the case with so many flamethrowing young arms, however, injuries intervened. A bone bruise in his upper arm wiped out most of Burdi’s 2016 season, and his 2017 campaign was cut short by Tommy John surgery. The Twins lost Burdi in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft — the Phillies selected him and immediately traded him to the Pirates — and he made his MLB debut with Pittsburgh late in the 2018 season.

Because he spent the bulk of the year on the injured list, Burdi’s Rule 5 designation carried over from the 2018 season into the 2019 season. He pitched just 8 2/3 innings before undergoing thoracic outlet surgery and missing the rest of the year. Burdi returned in 2020 but pitched just 2 1/3 MLB frames before hitting the injured list with an elbow issue that eventually resulted in his second career Tommy John surgery. Burdi finally returned to the mound with the Cubs organization in 2023, but as if the slate of arm injuries hadn’t been difficult enough, he also missed a substantial portion of the ’23 campaign after requiring an emergency appendectomy in late May.

Although we’re coming up on nearly a decade since Burdi was drafted, he’s pitched just 15 1/3 innings in the Majors due to that stunning slate of injuries. The results haven’t been good, as he’s allowed 16 runs in that time. Burdi, however, has a 3.51 ERA in parts of six minor league seasons and has whiffed just shy of 33% of opponents in his professional career (big leagues and minors combined). His durability is an enormous question, of course, but his arm strength is not; in the tiny sample of three MLB innings with Chicago last year, Burdi averaged 98 mph on his heater and reached triple digits at times.

If he can remain healthy enough to emerge as an option for the Yankees, he still has all three minor league option years remaining, which would give New York plenty of flexibility in the ’pen. He has to be viewed as a long shot to remain healthy, given his track record of injuries, but Burdi still looks to have plenty of fire in his right arm and deserves credit for grinding through a grueling slate of injuries that would surely have been enough for many pitchers to call it quits.

Yankees, Luis Gonzalez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees and free agent outfielder Luis Gonzalez have agreed to a minor league contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He’ll be in Major League camp this spring.

The 28-year-old Gonzalez has played in parts of three big league seasons between the White Sox and Giants, compiling a .253/.328/.368 batting line in 363 plate appearances. The 2017 third-round pick once rated as one of the better prospects in the ChiSox’ system, but he hasn’t yet found sustained success in the big leagues.

Gonzalez got out to a hot start in 2022, his first season with the Giants, after coming over from the Sox via waivers late in the 2021 season. Through June 21 of the 2022 season, Gonzalez was hitting .302/.361/.447 in 180 plate appearances, but a lower back strain shelved him for the next two and a half weeks. He was activated on July 9 but returned to the injured list with another back strain about six weeks later — this time missing the remainder of the season. Gonzalez may never have been fully healthy upon returning, as he batted only .204/.282/.270 in 170 trips to the plate between those two IL stints.

The back troubles persisted into the 2023 season, and Gonzalez eventually underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc. That procedure kept him out from mid-March through early July. He didn’t make it back to San Francisco’s big league roster but did suit up for 31 minor league games following the operation, during which he posted a .248/.350/.352 batting line in 123 trips to the plate.

The Yankees obviously have no room in the big league outfield after acquiring Juan Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo in trades this offseason. Soto and Verdugo will flank Aaron Judge, who’ll be the team’s primary center fielder, while Grisham will give them a lefty-swinging fourth outfielder with a plus glove to come off the bench late in games. Like Grisham, Gonzalez is a lefty bat with experience at all three outfield slots. The Yankees have a trio of depth outfielders — Everson Pereira, Estevan Florial and recent waiver claim Oscar Gonzalez — all on the 40-man roster ahead of their new signing. Gonzalez seems likely to open the year in Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre.

Yankees Claim Jeter Downs From Nationals

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The Yankees announced that they have claimed infielder Jeter Downs off waivers from the Nationals. The infielder was designated for assignment a week ago when the Nats signed right-hander Dylan Floro.

Downs, 25, was once a prospect of note, having been selected 32nd overall by the Reds in 2017 and later appearing on top 100 lists. His time as a minor leaguer saw him change organizations twice as part of a major trade, first going to the Dodgers in a seven-player swap and then to the Red Sox in the deal for Mookie Betts and David Price. The Yankees now have two of the three players that went to Boston in that deal, having acquired Alex Verdugo earlier this month and leaving the Sox with just Connor Wong.

But as for Downs, he hasn’t yet delivered on that prospect hype. In 963 minor league plate appearances over the past three years, he has hit just .200/.309/.365 for a wRC+ of 80. Due to that performance, he’s been allowed to make just 50 trips to the plate at the major league level, with a slash of just .182/.260/.273 in those. The Sox put him on waivers prior to 2023, with the Nats putting in a claim but now letting him go via the same door he came in.

Despite that tepid offensive production, there’s little harm in the Yankees putting in a claim. They had three open roster spots to work with, as this claim brings their 40-man count to 38. Downs still has an option, meaning he can be stashed in the minors as depth for the upcoming season, if he sticks on the 40-man for that long. It’s also worth pointing out that he’s still young and could perhaps turn the narrative of his career around.

The Yanks are currently slated to have an infield of DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo with Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera in the mix for bench/utility roles. Downs has played all three infield spots to the left of first base and even had a brief stint in center field this year, allowing him to provide some depth at various spots.

Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.

The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.

That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.

MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).

Mets, Yankees Reportedly Holding Second Meetings With Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto reportedly met with a contingent of Mets officials including owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns, manager Carlos Mendoza, and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner at Cohen’s home Saturday night, according to a report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s the second known meeting between the Mets and Yamamoto this offseason following Cohen’s trip to Japan earlier this month. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Yamamoto will also hold a second meeting with the Yankees while he’s in New York.

Yamamoto, 25, is widely regarded as the top starting pitcher on the free agent market this offseason. His market has begun to heat up in recent weeks, with a report earlier this month indicating that seven top suitors had emerged in the Yamamoto sweepstakes. Subsequent reports have indicated that each of the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Blue Jays, and Phillies have met with Yamamoto, leaving that group as the likely finalists for the youngster’s services. While Martino reports that discussions between the Mets and Yamamoto have not yet reached the stage of a formal offer, Sherman indicates that the bidding process between interested clubs is expected to “intensify” this coming week, with a resolution expected before the end of the calendar year. That’s hardly a surprise, as Yamamoto’s posting window expires on January 4.

With so many big market teams involved in the bidding process, rumors have swirled that Yamamoto’s final price tag could exceed $300MM. Though that hefty sum could factor in the posting fee owed to the Orix Buffaloes as compensation for Yamamoto’s services, it would nonetheless be an astounding contract for the right-hander. Yankees ace Gerrit Cole’s $324MM pact currently standing as the only contract (except that of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani) among starting pitchers to reach the $300MM threshold. That Yamamoto could even approach that stratosphere without having even thrown a pitch in the majors is a testament to his unique combination of youth and immense talent. Across seven seasons with the Buffaloes, Yamamoto has never posted an ERA above the 2.35 figure of his rookie season and has posted sub-2.00 ERAs in four of his last five seasons, including a microscopic 1.16 ERA in 171 frames this past season.

After parting ways with future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline over the summer, the Mets could certainly use the sort of front-of-the-rotation caliber arm Yamamoto projects to be. While the club has already added Luis Severino to its starting staff this offseason, even a bounce-back season from the righty would leave the Mets with holes to fill in a rotation that includes little certainty behind Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana. Righty Tylor Megill and lefty Joey Lucchesi appear to be the most likely internal candidates to round out the club’s rotation as things stand.

As for the Yankees, the club is in a somewhat similar boat with little certainty behind Cole. Though lefties Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon have both flashed front-of-the-rotation potential in the past, both southpaws are coming off down seasons in 2023 during which they were plagued by injuries and under performance. Meanwhile, the club has little depth outside of that trio and Clarke Schmidt after shipping rotation candidates Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito to the Padres in exchange for Juan Soto earlier this month.

One wrinkle in the New York clubs’ pursuits of Yamamoto is their backup plans should he ultimately sign elsewhere. While the Yankees are generally expected to pivot to other top-of-the market arms such as Shota Imanaga in the event they fail to sign Yamamoto, the Mets appear unlikely to do the same. Recent reports have indicated that Stearns’s front office is not expected to pivot to other top-of-the-market options like Imanaga, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell in the event that the club misses on Yamamoto. Per the report, the Mets view Yamamoto as a uniquely valuable player worth splurging on, but would otherwise prefer to focus on shorter-term deals for mid-market arms such as Lucas Giolito as they look to rebuild their rotation mix.

Yankees Interested In Shota Imanaga

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As the Yankees consider the pitching market, left-hander Shota Imanaga is one of the many hurlers on the team’s radar, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.  Imanaga would essentially be a backup plan if the Yankees can’t sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has long been cited as one of the Bronx Bombers’ top offseason targets.

It isn’t a stretch to say other teams could be viewing Imanaga in the same manner, given the overlap in suitors between his market and Yamamoto’s market.  The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, and Tigers have all been linked to both Japanese pitchers at various points this offseason, and the Cubs are the only known Imanaga suitor who doesn’t appear to be in on Yamamoto.  This could theoretically give Chicago a slight edge in being able to more fully focus on its courtship of Imanaga, yet the southpaw and his reps probably aren’t likely to sign a deal until Yamamoto makes his decision, so Imanaga can perhaps benefit by finding a larger deal in a thinning pitching market.

The clock is ticking for Yamamoto and Imanaga given the 45-day posting windows for both players, though there is plenty of time left for the two pitchers to land contracts.  Yamamoto has until January 4 to sign with a Major League team, while Imanaga has until January 9.  As per the terms of the MLB/NPB posting system, a Japanese team who posts a player is entitled to a posting fee worth 20% of first $25MM of the player’s eventual big league contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM, of anything beyond the $50MM threshold.  For instance, the Yokohama BayStars (Imanaga’s NPB team) would receive a $13.875MM release fee if the lefty signed the five-year, $85MM deal predicted in MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list.

Recent reports have suggested that the 30-year-old Imanaga might land a contract closer to $100MM, speaking to both the rising costs of pitching and the interest in his services.  That would still make Imanaga a much less costly proposition than Yamamoto, whose price tag was expected to top $200MM heading into the offseason and now might be approaching the $300MM mark.

Imanaga is almost five years older than Yamamoto and isn’t considered to have a similar ace-level ceiling, but Imanaga projects as a solid middle-of-the-rotation type of arm as he makes the move from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors.  Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA over 1002 2/3 career innings for the BayStars, with excellent control, very good strikeout numbers, and quite a bit of durability (with the exception of a shoulder surgery in 2020).

The Yankees dealt away a good chunk of their rotation depth by moving Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, and top prospect Drew Thorpe to the Padres in the Juan Soto trade.  Gerrit Cole is the ace of a staff that includes Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, and Clarke Schmidt, and the fifth spot in the rotation is now a question mark with King in San Diego.  Signing Imanaga would bolster the rotation for 2024 and beyond, and while a $100MM deal isn’t exactly a bargain signing, New York might prefer that outlay to other alternatives.  Signing another top pitcher might cost even more in both money or in draft picks (for a qualifying offer-rejecting hurler), or the Yankees would have to surrender even more young talent to land a top trade chip like Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease.

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