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Royals Acquire Lucas Erceg

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The Royals have acquired right-hander Lucas Erceg from the Athletics, per announcements from both clubs. The A’s receive right-handers Mason Barnett and Will Klein as well as outfielder Jared Dickey.

Erceg took an unusual path to being a midseason trade target. He was drafted by the Brewers as a third baseman back in 2016 but flamed out as a hitter and eventually moved to the mound. In 2021, he tossed 47 2/3 innings at the Double-A level, allowing 5.29 earned runs per nine. As you might expect for a new convert to pitching, control was an issue at first. Erceg gave out walks to 16.4% of batters faced that year but he also got strikeouts at a decent 21.1% clip and grounders at a strong 56.8% rate.

He has generally made positive progress in each season since as he has become more accustomed to his new career path. In 2022, he logged 61 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.55 ERA, a decent step forward from the prior season. His strikeout and walk rates also improved to 24.4% and 13.1%, respectively.

In 2023, he started the year back at Triple-A before he was traded from Milwaukee to Oakland in a cash deal, with the A’s adding him to their roster shortly thereafter. He tossed his first 55 major league innings last year with a 4.75 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, 14.3% walk rate and 46.1% ground ball rate. The control was still an issue but it was an encouraging debut nonetheless, especially for a guy with such a limited track record on the mound. He averaged 98 miles per hour with both his four-seam fastball and his sinker while also throwing a changeup, slider and cutter.

His second major league season has seen him continue to grow. His 26.3% strikeout rate is a slight drop from last year but he has cut his walk rate all the way down to 8.3%, with his ground ball rate also creeping up to 50.5%. That’s resulted in a 3.68 ERA in 36 2/3 innings, with Erceg racking up three saves and 12 holds on the year.

The A’s didn’t necessarily have to trade Erceg now. He came into this season with less than a year of service time, meaning he can still be retained for five seasons after the current campaign, but there are also logical reasons why they were tempted to make him available.

Due to his unusual trajectory, Erceg is now 29 years old. With the A’s deep in a rebuild, he will be in his early 30s and into his arbitration seasons by the time they are likely to be competitive again. Relievers are generally considered pretty volatile in general and that might be even more true with Erceg, who has such limited experience relative to most of his peers. Rather than hold him and take the risk that his performance takes a downturn or he suffers an injury, the A’s decided to make him available at this deadline, while the industry consensus has generally been that the acquisition costs for pitching have been quite high.

The Royals have surged back into contention after many years of struggles and have been aggressive in bolstering their roster for a playoff push. The bullpen has naturally been a target area for the club this year, as their relievers have a collective 4.30 ERA that places them 24th in the majors. Their 18.6% strikeout rate is actually second to last, ahead of only the Rockies.

They acquired Hunter Harvey from the Nationals recently and this trade for Erceg will give them a couple of fresh arms who both have big punchout potential. They also added Michael Lorenzen as a swingman to bolster the group in general, as he can help them in multiple ways.

Considering the A’s just got Erceg in a cash deal last May, they are likely quite happy to cash him in for three younger players barely over a year later. Barnett, 23, was a third-round pick of the Royals in 2022. He made 23 starts last year between High-A and Double-A with a 3.30 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate. His ERA has jumped to 4.91 at Double-A this year but with similar peripherals. His .336 batting average on balls in play and 64.2% strand rate are probably masking those underlying metrics, as he has a 27.4% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. Baseball America currently lists him as the #11 prospect in the Royals’ system while FanGraphs has him slightly higher at #7.

Klein, 24, is a reliever who made his major league debut this year. He has 5 2/3 innings in the show so far with a 6.35 ERA. Command appears to be the biggest issue with him. Since being selected in the fifth-round of the 2020 draft, he has tossed 216 minor league innings with a 5.17 ERA. His 30.7% strikeout rate is quite impressive but he’s also given free passes to 16.1% of batters that have come to the plate. BA and FG both put him at #16 in the system.

Dickey, 22, was just drafted in the 11th round last year. He’s slashing .269/.360/.424 in High-A this year for a wRC+ of 127 and has also stolen eight bases. Neither BA nor FG have him on their KC prospect lists.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported on X that Erceg was headed to the Royals. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the return on X.

Guardians To Acquire Alex Cobb

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The Guardians and Giants are in the process of finalizing a trade that will send veteran right-hander Alex Cobb from San Francisco to Cleveland, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports that there’s an agreement in place, with Cleveland sending minor league lefty Jacob Bresnahan and a player to be named later to San Francisco in the swap.

Cobb has yet to pitch this season after opening the year on the injured list while rehabbing from offseason hip surgery. He was expected back sooner in 2024, but multiple setbacks — including a shoulder issue and blister troubles — slowed his recovery. He’s on the cusp of being reinstated from the injured list at this point, however, and could pitch within the next week. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Guardians’ plan for Cobb is to make one final rehab start before his reinstatement. He last pitched on the 26th and should be on turn to throw again tomorrow.

The 36-year-old righty is in the final season of what was originally a two-year, $20MM deal but became a three-year, $28MM contract after the Giants chose to exercise a $10MM club option rather than pay a $2MM buyout. He’s still owed $3.333MM of this year’s salary between now and season’s end.

Though Cobb has yet to pitch in 2024, he’s been a rock-solid rotation arm for the Angels and Giants over the past three seasons, pitching to a combined 3.79 ERA with a 22.8% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate in 394 1/3 innings. He’s started 74 games in that time, averaging about 5 1/3 frames per outing.

The Guardians, who’ve lost Shane Bieber for the season and had to option Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen due to notable struggles, have been relying on a patchwork staff including veteran Carlos Carrasco and journeyman Ben Lively. Lively has exceeded expectations, but Carrasco has struggled to a 5.68 ERA in 95 innings (19 starts). The Guards recently called on rookie southpaw Joey Cantillo for his MLB debut as well. The only steady presences in the rotation at the moment are righties Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams (who opened the season with a monthslong IL stint) and Lively.

In return for Cobb, the Giants will add Cleveland’s 13th-round pick from the 2023 draft (Bresnahan) and a PTBNL. The 19-year-old Bresnahan was an over-slot add for Cleveland in the 13th, signing for a $375K bonus ($225K of which counted against the Guardians’ pool). That’s the equivalent of a signing bonus near the tail end of the fifth round in the draft.

Baseball America ranked Bresnahan as the No. 491 prospect in last year’s draft. He’s not considered to be among the Guardians’ top prospects but has had a nice start in the low minors after getting hit hard in last summer’s pro debut. He’s pitched 50 innings between Cleveland’s Rookie-level ACL and Class-A affiliates, logging a 2.70 ERA with a 32.5% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. BA’s scouting report on Bresnahan from the draft notes an upper-80s/low-90s heater (which could add velocity as he continues to mature) and a changeup that has the potential to be an above-average pitch.

With Cobb now out of the fold in San Francisco, the Giants will likely go with young Hayden Birdsong to follow Logan Webb, Blake Snell, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison. The Giants surely wanted to get Birdsong a look after he’s impressed in six big league starts (2.97 ERA, 30 1/3 innings, 30.2 K%, 11.9 BB%) and shown well in the upper minors as well. With Cobb out of the mix, that’s now easier to accomplish.

That said, the Giants could easily have gone to a six-man rotation. They’ve been anything but adherent to the conventional five-man rotation under the watch of president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, after all. The Cobb trade was very likely as much about the modest return and an opportunity for Birdsong as it was shedding the remainder of Cobb’s contract once a taker presented itself. The Giants shed the remainder of Jorge Soler’s contract in last night’s deal with the Braves, and adding Cobb to the pile trims more than $30MM off the books in total — all while dropping the Giants down a tier in terms of luxury-tax penalization.

The Giants will be hard-pressed to actually duck beneath the $237MM threshold, barring a trade of a major contract like Snell or Ray, but the Cobb trade alone will spare them a bit shy of $4MM when factoring in his remaining salary and their 20% tax on his contract’s AAV.

Yankees Acquire Mark Leiter Jr.

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The Yankees announced that they have acquired right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs. In return, the Cubs will receive infielder Ben Cowles and right-hander Jack Neely. The Yankees had two open 40-man spots and jump to 39, while the Cubs drop down to 38.

Leiter, now 33, has been great for the Cubs over the past few years after a late-bloomer trajectory. The son of Mark Leiter and nephew of Al Leiter, the younger Mark made it to the big leagues by 2017 but didn’t impress in his first tastes of the show. By the end of 2018, he had a 5.53 earned run average in 114 big league innings. He then required Tommy John surgery early in 2019 and was on the shelf for an extended period of time. He signed a minor league deal with the Tigers in 2021 but didn’t get a call to the show.

A minor league deal with the Cubs going into 2022 turned into the opportunity he needed. He was selected to the big league roster by mid-April that year and eventually tossed 65 2/3 innings for the Cubs with a 3.99 ERA. He struck out 25.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 8.9% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.9% rate.

Despite that generally strong work, he was nudged off the club’s roster in January of 2023. He had exhausted his final option year and so the Cubs designated him for assignment, with all 29 clubs passing on the chance to grab him off waivers. He elected free agency but re-signed with the Cubs on a minor league deal prior to the next season.

He was added back to the roster for Opening Day and has been a key part of the Chicago bullpen since then. Going back to the start of 2023, he has a 3.75 ERA in 100 2/3 innings. His strikeout rate is up to 30.9% in that time while he still has decent walk and ground ball rates of 8.8% and 47.1% respectively.

This year’s 4.21 ERA doesn’t look pretty but that’s mostly due to a tiny strand rate of 55%, well below the 71.9% league average. Since he’s striking out 34.9% of batters faced and also getting grounders at a 50.6% clip, his 2.11 FIP and 2.42 SIERA suggest he’s been about two runs better than his ERA would have you believe.

The Cubs have been balancing present and future needs at this deadline. Just over a week ago, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said that the club would be prioritizing “2025 and beyond” in their transactions. That didn’t necessarily point to a deadline selloff, as the club then went out and acquired Isaac Paredes from the Rays and Nate Pearson from the Blue Jays, with both of those players having multiple years of control.

But there were also some rumors that they might make some pitching available and there’s a logic to Leiter being moved out. Due to his unusual trajectory, Leiter still has a couple of years of club control remaining after this one. But given his age, the Cubs probably didn’t consider him a core piece of their future-focused agenda and made him available.

Those circumstances are likely also why the win-now Yankees wanted to get him. He only just qualified for arbitration for the first time coming into this season and is making $1.5MM, not much above this year’s $740K league minimum. The Yankees are slated to pay the competitive balance tax for a third straight year and finish well above the top tier. That means they face a 110% tax rate for any new spending, so Leiter’s minimal salary fits in nicely for them, and they can keep him around for two more years beyond this one.

While Leiter is cheap in terms of dollars, the Yankees have paid the price of two prospects to get him. Neely, 24, was an 11th-round pick in the 2021 draft. He’s been exclusively a reliever in his professional career, racking up significant strikeout totals. In 160 1/3 minor league innings overall, he has a 2.75 ERA, 38.8% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. That includes 41 2/3 innings this year between Double-A and Triple-A with a 2.81 ERA, 36% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. Baseball America currently lists him as the #20 prospect in the Yankees’ system.

Cowles, 24, was a 10th-round pick in 2021 and has played in 88 Double-A games this year. His .294/.376/.472 batting line leads to a strong 141 wRC+, indicating he’s been 41% better than league average. His .340 batting average on balls in play is high but he’s also got strong walk and strikeout rates of 10.3% and 17.7%, respectively. He also has 14 steals and has lined up at the three infield spots to the left of first base.

Both Neely and Cowles are Rule 5 eligible this winter, so the Yankees would have been facing a decision about whether or not to add them to their 40-man roster. Instead, they have cashed them in for an immediate bullpen upgrade, meaning those decisions will now transfer to Chicago.

Rob Zamparelli first reported on X that Leiter was headed to the Yankees. Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN relayed the full trade on X.

Orioles To Acquire Trevor Rogers

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The Orioles are acquiring southpaw starting pitcher Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  The Marlins will receive second baseman/outfielder Connor Norby in the deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided.  Miami also gets outfielder Kyle Stowers, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

Rogers marks the Orioles’ second recent rotation addition, after they acquired Zach Eflin from the Rays four days ago.  Rogers, 27 in November, owns a 4.53 ERA, 18.0 K%, 9.7 BB%, and 46.9% groundball rate in 105 1/3 innings this year.  Rogers has a 3.17 ERA over his last nine starts, but with no apparent improvement in his skills.

Rogers was at his best three years ago, when he made the All-Star team and finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting by posting a 2.64 ERA in 133 innings.  He averaged 94.6 miles per hour on his fastball that year, and looked like one of the game’s best young starters.  The lefty had a strong pedigree, as well, having been drafted 13th overall out of high school in 2017.

Things took a turn in 2022, as Rogers’ strikeout rate plummeted and he missed a month with lower back spasms.  That season also ended a bit early due to a lat strain.  2023 was worse, as Rogers’ season ended in April after four starts due to a left biceps strain and a partial tear in his right lat.

Rogers then entered the arbitration system, and is earning $1.53MM this year.  He remains under team control through 2026.  Rogers has avoided the IL thus far this year, but it’ll be up to Orioles pitching coach Drew French and the rest of the staff to attempt to help him regain his 2021 form.  Rogers’ average fastball velocity is down to 92.2 miles per hour this year, a notable 2.4 mile per hour drop from his one stellar season.

Having lost Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells to Tommy John surgery, the first-place Orioles have a rotation of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Eflin, Dean Kremer, and Rogers.  Burnes and Means are eligible for free agency after the season, leaving Rodriguez, Kremer, and new additions Eflin and Rogers for 2025.

The Orioles had been connected to Garrett Crochet and Blake Snell, and could theoretically add one of them in the next three-plus hours, but are likely done with their rotation at this point.  Aside from Eflin and Rogers, Orioles executive vice president and GM Mike Elias also bolstered his bullpen by acquiring Seranthony Dominguez last week.

Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix did quite well in adding a pair of Major League-ready position players for two-plus years of Rogers.

Norby, 24, ranked 93rd on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2023 season.  Prior to this season, BA gave Norby a 50 grade, calling him a “bat-first second baseman” who can also handle left field.  The former 2021 second-rounder has spent most of the season repeating Triple-A, and has shown quite well with a 134 wRC+ in 80 games.  He’s gotten a few brief looks with the Orioles due to Jorge Mateo’s injuries, but has only played in nine big league games so far.  Norby is under the Marlins’ control through 2030 and will likely receive regular playing time at second base for the rest of the season.

Stowers, 26, was drafted by the Orioles in the second round out of Stanford in 2019.  Known for his big raw power from the left side, Stowers has been unable to secure regular playing time on the stacked Orioles since his 2022 debut.  Stowers, who is best-suited for right field, will get that chance with the Marlins.  Like Norby, Stowers has spent most of the season at Triple-A, posting a decent 115 wRC+.

If the Marlins did indeed come up with a pair of controllable regulars for a back-end starter in Rogers, it’ll be quite the win as Bendix makes his mark on the team.

At the time of this writing, Bendix still has three-plus hours remaining to further remake the Marlins, likely by dismantling his bullpen and possibly trading outfielder Bryan De La Cruz.  The team’s 2024 rotation is particularly bare with the departure of Rogers, leaving Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer, and Kyle Tyler.  Jesus Luzardo is working his way back from a lumbar stress reaction, Ryan Weathers is recovering from an index finger strain, and Braxton Garrett is on the IL for a forearm strain.  Next year, the team will get Sandy Alcantara and eventually Eury Perez back from Tommy John surgery.

Red Sox Acquire Lucas Sims

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The Red Sox announced the acquisition of reliever Lucas Sims from the Reds. Pitching prospect Ovis Portes is going back to Cincinnati. Boston designated left-hander Brandon Walter for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.

Sims spent parts of seven seasons in Cincinnati. A former first-round pick by the Braves, the Georgia native struggled in Atlanta before going to the Reds at the 2018 deadline in the Adam Duvall trade. Cincinnati quickly moved Sims to the bullpen, where he’s been a bit volatile but flashed high-leverage upside.

After a strong showing during the abbreviated 2020 schedule, Sims showed huge swing-and-miss potential in ’21. He lost most of the next season to injuries that culminated in season-ending back surgery. Sims rebounded to turn in 61 innings of 3.10 ERA ball a year ago. He carries a 3.57 mark through 35 1/3 frames this season.

Sims has fanned an above-average 26% of batters faced. His 11.3% swinging strike percentage is solid but down a few points from last year’s excellent 14.3% clip. The 30-year-old righty has been a bit homer-prone this year — strangely much more so on the road than at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park — and has always had wobbly control. He’s walking 13% of batters faced this season after handing out free passes at a 15.1% clip a year ago.

That command leads to some inconsistency, but he’s posted generally strong results while working in the middle to late innings for skipper David Bell. Sims owns a 3.27 mark with a 27.2% strikeout rate against a 14.3% walk percentage in 110 appearances over the last two years. Opponents have hit .190/.325/.343 over that stretch. Sims has a bit of closing experience but won’t be needed in the ninth inning in Boston. He adds a right-handed setup option in front of Kenley Jansen while Chris Martin and Rule 5 pickup Justin Slaten are on the injured list.

Sims is playing on a $2.85MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’ll hit free agency for the first time next winter. Boston is taking on roughly $935K for the stretch run. RosterResource calculates Boston’s CBT number around $222MM, giving chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his group ample flexibility for more moves this afternoon while staying under the $237MM tax line.

Cincinnati is five games out in the Wild Card race. They’re seemingly positioned as soft deadline sellers and have moved impending free agents Frankie Montas and Sims in the past 24 hours (albeit for upper level talent in Montas’ case). The Reds have a strong relief group overall and could feel they’re not taking too much of a hit to their slim playoff chances by parting with Sims and giving a few more meaningful innings to someone like Tony Santillan.

The Reds grab a developmental low minors pitching prospect in the process. Portes, 19, is a 6’4″ righty who signed with the Sox out of Antigua and Barbuda in 2022. He has turned to be a nice find for Boston’s international scouting department. Baseball America ranked him as the #29 prospect in the Boston system, writing that he sits in the mid-90s and can run his fastball up to 99 MPH. He needs to continue developing his secondary stuff and control but there’s intriguing velocity and physical upside. Portes has reached Low-A this season, where he has a 3.43 ERA over 21 innings. He’s striking out more than a quarter of opponents but struggling to throw strikes.

Walter has been on the minor league injured list all season. Injured players cannot go on outright waivers, so the Sox are likely to release him this week. The 27-year-old southpaw made his big league debut last season and tossed 23 innings of 6.26 ERA ball over nine long relief outings.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Red Sox were acquiring Sims. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo suggested Portes might be in the return, which Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Garrett Crochet Rumors: Deadline Day

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White Sox ace Garrett Crochet has been the hottest name on the trade market this month, both because of the Sox’ own failed attempt to extend him and because his camp has since indicated that the left-hander wants an extension before pitching in October for a new club. Crochet’s 114 1/3 innings this season have already eclipsed his prior career total. He’s said to be against a move to the bullpen, believing that staying on a starter’s routine is best for his health, and aiming for financial security before pushing his workload even deeper into postseason waters.

It’s rubbed many fans the wrong way to see such a business-like approach, and it’s taken many in the industry aback — White Sox GM Chris Getz included, apparently. Via Sox Machine’s James Fegan, Getz spoke with reporters yesterday and acknowledged that he was “surprised and taken back” by how Crochet’s camp handled the situation, particularly as he’d had a conversation with the left-hander’s agent at CAA just the night before.

“I think most fans and even players without knowing everything, it makes sense,” said Getz. “We understand why a stance would be taken. Now how you go about expressing that is what was a bit hurtful, quite honestly, considering I felt like we could have handled it a little bit differently and still I think everyone accomplished what they wanted to accomplish. … But Garrett and I are fine, we are good. I’ll continue to be one of his top supporters. In regard to how it affects the coming days, tough to tell.”

We’ll round up today’s Crochet chatter here and break out any major developments into their own posts…

  • USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the White Sox have become increasingly optimistic that they’ll find someone to meet their asking price on Crochet even in the wake of his extension revelation. Per Nightengale, the Sox believe that they’ll trade Crochet between now and the 5:00pm CT deadline but expect to hang onto center fielder Luis Robert Jr. — as was reported to be the case regarding Robert just last night.
  • Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggest that Crochet’s market remains strong. Rosenthal lists the Padres, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Red Sox and Orioles as teams with varying levels of interest. Levine echoes much of that same list and quotes an executive from a rival AL club stating the relative obvious: “You don’t get a chance to find a top pitcher like that often. You must get creative.”
  • The Yankees inquired on Crochet at some point but were told in those initial talks that the two parties “didn’t match up” in a trade, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Yankees could always revisit talks, particularly with so many alternative rotation options off the board. New York has been tied to Tigers righty Jack Flaherty as well, and the Yankees are seeking a rotation upgrade as they simultaneously explore the possibility of moving Nestor Cortes in a separate deal.

Astros Acquire Yusei Kikuchi

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The Astros are paying up to get one of the top pitchers on the market. Houston and Toronto announced a trade sending Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros for rookie righty Jake Bloss, outfielder/first baseman Joey Loperfido and minor league infielder Will Wagner. Toronto already had ample 40-man roster space to accommodate the move.

Kikuchi is behind Jack Flaherty as arguably the second-best rental starter on the market. Houston was tied to Flaherty as well as more controllable pitchers like Jameson Taillon, Erick Fedde and Zach Eflin last week. There was never much doubt that the Astros would bring in a starter, as general manager Dana Brown hasn’t been shy about the team’s need for a mid-rotation arm. The asking price on Flaherty always seemed like it might be beyond Houston’s comfort zone, making Kikuchi a sensible fallback.

The 33-year-old Kikuchi has had mixed results this season and throughout his career more broadly. Over 115 2/3 innings this year, he carries a 4.75 ERA that’s right in line with his 4.72 mark in parts of six MLB campaigns. Kikuchi’s strikeout and walk profile is quite a bit more impressive than that run prevention figure suggests. He has punched out 26.2% of opposing hitters while walking only 6% of batters faced. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, Kikuchi ranks 19th in strikeout percentage and 16th in strikeout/walk rate differential. He’s getting swinging strikes at a 12.4% rate that places him among the top 30 in that group.

A .340 average on balls in play and modest 70.6% left on base rate have nevertheless pushed his ERA close to 5.00. Those marks were nearer to league average in 2023, when the Japanese southpaw turned in a 3.86 ERA over 32 starts with similar strikeout and walk rates as he’s posted this season. Houston is betting on positive regression in those sequencing and batted ball results.

Teams have long been intrigued by Kikuchi, who boasts some of the best raw stuff of any left-hander in baseball. His fastball sits north of 95 MPH and he has the ability to miss bats with all four of his offerings (four-seam, curveball, slider, changeup). Kikuchi has had a difficult time keeping the ball in the park throughout his MLB career, though. He’s allowing homers at an elevated 1.32 clip per nine this season and has given up more longballs than the average pitcher in every full season of his major league tenure. Right-handed batters have generally given him trouble, though he’s holding them a more manageable .280/.323/.441 slash in 409 plate appearances this year.

While Kikuchi isn’t without flaws, he’s a plug-and-play option for the middle of a Houston rotation that certainly needed one. The Astros have been hit hard by starting pitching injuries all year. They lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgery. Depth starter J.P. France went down with a season-ending shoulder issue. Justin Verlander has had two injured list stints and has been shelved since the middle of June because of neck soreness. Lance McCullers Jr. has hit continued snags in his effort to return from a flexor tendon surgery. They had to slow down Luis Garcia in his work back from Tommy John surgery, though he’s again throwing bullpen sessions after being pulled off a minor league rehab stint earlier this month.

Framber Valdez is leading the rotation and has a 3.43 ERA over 18 starts. Hunter Brown has bounced back from a disastrous April and pitched like a top-of-the-rotation arm for the last three months. Ronel Blanco has been a godsend after injuries pushed him into the fifth starter role out of camp. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 119 frames.

While that’s a decent top three, the depth is questionable. Spencer Arrighetti has a 5.58 ERA over his first 19 MLB starts. Houston had pushed Bloss to the majors within a year of drafting him, largely reflecting their lack of alternatives in the upper minors. The Astros are hoping to get Verlander and Garcia (and potentially McCullers) back at some point, but they’ve also pushed Blanco to new workload heights. The 30-year-old righty had never thrown more than 88 innings in a major or minor league campaign before this year. He’s already 31 innings beyond that.

Kikuchi, who hasn’t missed a start in two years, has provided the kind of durability that the Astros have generally lacked. There’s injury risk with any pitcher, of course, but the Astros are no doubt thrilled to land a pitcher who is tied for fifth in MLB in starts going back to last year’s Opening Day.

Doing so comes at a cost. Bloss is arguably the top pitching prospect in a fairly thin Houston farm system. A third-round pick out of Georgetown last summer, the 6’3″ righty quickly pitched his way towards the top of the prospect pipeline. Baseball America recently ranked him the #2 prospect in the organization, while he’s in the overall Top 100 (and second in the organization) at FanGraphs.

BA suggests he’s likely to fit at the back of a rotation, while FanGraphs credits him with mid-rotation potential. Both outlets write that his mid-90s fastball plays especially well at the top of the strike zone because of its backspin and Bloss’ deceptively low release height. He has a pair of solid breaking pitches, while his changeup is a work in progress.

Opponents have hit him hard over his three big league starts. He has given up nine runs on 16 hits (including five homers) over 11 2/3 innings. Were it not for Houston’s injury woes, he probably wouldn’t have made his MLB debut yet. Bloss has pitched very well in the minors this season, working to a 1.64 ERA with a 25.6% strikeout rate across 66 innings. Yet he’d made all of eight starts at Double-A and one Triple-A appearance before being pushed to the big leagues out of necessity. A more typical development path would probably still have him at Double-A right now.

Bloss has all three options remaining. The 23-year-old is under control for at least six seasons beyond this one and could stick around even longer if the Jays send him to the minors for further development. Bloss could factor into next year’s rotation as the Jays try to quickly return to contention, maybe slotting into the rotation spot vacated by Kikuchi’s departure.

Getting Bloss alone would’ve been a strong return for a half-season of Kikuchi’s services. Loperfido, 25, ranked as Houston’s #5 prospect on BA’s latest update. A seventh-round selection out of Duke in 2021, he hit his way to the big leagues earlier this year. Loperfido combined for a .278/.370/.510 slash between three minor league levels last season. He was obliterating Triple-A pitching early this season and owns a .272/.365/.568 mark with 13 homers over 39 games in the Pacific Coast League this year.

Of course, the PCL is an extremely favorable environment for hitters. BA’s scouting report credits Loperfido with above-average but not elite power. He was striking out an elevated 28% clip against Triple-A pitching. The whiffs have carried over in his first look at MLB arms. Loperfido has fanned in 36.4% of his 118 MLB plate appearances to date. He’s hitting .236/.299/.358 in 38 games.

Loperfido isn’t a great athlete or defensive player. He was drafted as a second baseman but he’s moved off the position entirely this year. Houston has divided his time between the outfield and first base in Triple-A. They haven’t given him any major league starts at first base, which is a bit of a surprise considering the mediocre production they’ve gotten out of the position from Jon Singleton and the since-released José Abreu.

Wagner is the third piece in the deal, but he’s a prospect in his own right. The son of seven-time All-Star Billy Wagner, Will ranks 19th in the Houston system at Baseball America. A former 18th-round pick out of Liberty, Wagner has outperformed his draft stock and is posting huge numbers in Triple-A. He’s hitting .307/.424/.429 with a massive 16.2% walk percentage against a tiny 10.2% strikeout rate across 324 plate appearances.

The left-handed hitting Wagner is old for the level — today is his 26th birthday — but he has little more to prove in the minors. He has divided his time between first, second and third base this year. He’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter if not selected onto the 40-man roster but could get a look in Toronto before the end of this season.

That’s three controllable players at or near the MLB level. The Astros were fine giving them up while they’re in a tight battle with the Mariners and Rangers for the AL West crown. Beyond the prospects, they’re adding salary to what is already a franchise-high payroll. The Astros had a competitive balance tax estimate around $256MM before the deal (as calculated by RosterResource). Unless there are cash considerations involved, they’ll take on roughly $3.33MM remaining on Kikuchi’s $10MM salary. That pushes them beyond the $257MM threshold that marks the second tier of luxury penalization. They’re taxed at a 32% rate on spending up to $277MM, so they’ll take on roughly $1MM in taxes on top of the money they owe Kikuchi.

Toronto sheds some money from its tax ledger — more than the Astros are taking on. Kikuchi’s three-year, $36MM free agent deal was frontloaded to pay him $16MM in the first season. Toronto’s competitive balance tax hit was nevertheless the contract’s $12MM average annual value, so Kikuchi had a higher CBT hit than actual salary this year.

When a player on a guaranteed contract is traded, the CBT ledger is recalculated based on the salary remaining at the time of the trade. The Astros assume the prorated amount of a $10MM salary while the Jays drop the prorated portion of the $12MM for which Kikuchi had counted against their books — approximately $4MM. That could aid them in trying to slip below the $237MM base threshold this year. Their exact CBT number is pending the reporting of the amount of cash they included in the Justin Turner trade with Seattle this afternoon.

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden first reported the Astros were nearing a deal for Kikuchi that would send Bloss to Toronto. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed a Kikuchi trade was in place. Ken Rosenthal, Kaitlyn McGrath and Chandler Rome of the Athletic reported that the Jays were acquiring two other prospects. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported Loperfido and Wagner were in the deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Braves Acquire Jorge Soler

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Jorge Soler is headed back to Atlanta. The Braves reacquired both Soler and reliever Luke Jackson from the Giants on Monday night in what amounts to a salary dump for San Francisco. The Giants acquire minor league infielder Sabin Ceballos and take on the salary for injured reliever Tyler Matzek. Atlanta designated Darius Vines for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.

Atlanta is looking to recreate the magic of their 2021 deadline. The Braves brought in Soler and Eddie Rosario that summer to address an outfield that had lost Ronald Acuña Jr. to a season-ending ACL tear. Those outfield acquisitions drove Atlanta’s run to a championship, with Soler snagging World Series MVP honors behind a three-homer performance in the Fall Classic.

The Braves unfortunately lost Acuña to another ACL tear in late May, leaving them shorthanded in the outfield as the deadline approached. They already took a flier on Rosario, signing him after he was released by the Nationals. That hasn’t worked thus far, as Rosario is hitting .164/.186/.345 in 16 games.

Soler should step into everyday playing time in right field. Adam Duvall has gotten the bulk of the work there since the Acuña injury, but he’s hitting only .188/.251/.336 over 295 plate appearances. Atlanta signed Duvall to work as a short side platoon bat alongside Jarred Kelenic in left field. Duvall has continued to hit left-handed pitching (.261/.361/.533 in 108 plate appearances), but he owns a dismal .153/.190/.239 line while striking out a third of the time against righties.

Duvall can now return to the more limited role which the Braves had envisioned him playing. Kelenic has been pressed mainly into center field action since Michael Harris II went down with a hamstring strain. Once Harris is ready to return, that’ll push Kelenic back to left field.

It’s an abrupt end to what proved a very brief stint for Soler in the Bay Area. The Giants signed him to a three-year, $42MM deal at the start of Spring Training. His tenure started inauspiciously, as he didn’t hit well for two months and missed some time with a minor shoulder strain. The Cuban-born slugger has been on a tear since the calendar flipped to June, hitting .280/.374/.486 over his most recent 204 plate appearances.

Thanks to his cold start, Soler’s season line is still below his typical level. He owns a .240/.330/.419 slash with 12 homers across 392 trips. His 11.2% walk percentage and 24.7% strikeout rate are in line with his normal marks, but Soler’s power output is down from last year’s 36-homer pace. While some of that is surely attributable to the challenge of hitting at Oracle Park, his batted ball metrics have also dropped. Soler’s average exit velocity is down a tick, while his 39.9% hard contact rate is eight percentage points below last year’s figure.

That’s probably part of the Giants’ rationale in getting out from under the contract within a few months of signing it. Atlanta desperately needed to inject some life into an offense that has hit .227/.281/.417 in July. The Braves have hovered around .500 for the better part of three months and have dropped back to the pack in the NL Wild Card race. At 56-49, they’re narrowly in possession of the top Wild Card spot. Only one and a half games separate them from the Diamondbacks, the top non-playoff team at the moment.

While the Braves are clearly reacquiring Soler for his bat, they’ll need to count on him to hold his own defensively. Soler didn’t play a single inning on defense for the Giants. He only made 31 starts in right field (compared to 102 at DH) last year with the Marlins. Marcell Ozuna has the designated hitter spot secured in Atlanta, so the Braves will trust Soler to play more or less every day in the field. Ozuna’s contract contains a $16MM club option for next season, which the Braves probably anticipate exercising. With Soler signed through 2026, they’d have a lot of defensively-limited hitters at that point. That’s a risk they’re prepared to take for the short-term lineup boost.

Atlanta’s “run it back” ethos doesn’t stop with Soler. Jackson was also a member of their ’21 World Series winner. The right-hander had the best year of his career that season, working to a 1.98 ERA across 63 2/3 innings. Jackson’s elbow blew out the next year, sending him for Tommy John surgery that seemed as if it’d end his Braves tenure. He hit free agency during the 2022-23 offseason and landed in San Francisco on a two-year, $11.5MM guarantee.

Jackson spent the first half of last season finishing his Tommy John rehab. He returned to throw 33 1/3 frames of 2.97 ERA ball down the stretch. Jackson quickly landed on the shelf with a lower back strain and hasn’t managed the same caliber of production since returning in late April. He’s carrying a 5.40 earned run average over 35 innings. His 21.9% strikeout percentage and 9.9% walk rate are each slightly worse than average, though he’s getting ground-balls at a strong 51% clip.

The 32-year-old (33 in August) has looked much sharper of late. Jackson is running a 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with three runs allowed in nine innings this month. The velocity on his slider and four-seam fastball are each in line with his career marks. The Braves can plug him into middle relief with the possibility for higher-leverage work alongside Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson and A.J. Minter if Jackson’s recent form kicks off a strong second half.

Atlanta is taking on a substantial amount of money for these reunions. There’s no cash changing hands, although Matzek’s inclusion in the deal provides a small financial counterbalance. He’s in the second season of a two-year, $3.1MM contract that has mostly been ruined by elbow problems. Matzek missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made 11 appearances early this season, allowing 11 runs in 10 innings, before going back on the injured list with elbow inflammation. Matzek remains on the 60-day IL with no clear return timetable. His deal contains a $5.5MM team option for next season that is sure to be declined.

The Giants paid Soler a $9MM signing bonus. He’s playing this season on a $7MM salary, around $2.3MM of which is still owed. Atlanta is taking on matching $13MM salaries covering the 2025-26 seasons. Jackson is making $6.5MM this year (roughly $2.1MM remaining) and is guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on a $7MM option for next year. Matzek is due around $620K through season’s end. The Braves assume nearly $3.8MM in salary commitments for the stretch run plus the $28MM in future guarantees on Soler’s and Jackson’s deals.

RosterResource calculates Atlanta’s CBT number around $282MM. That pushes them past the $277MM third tier of penalization and positions their first-round pick in next year’s draft to drop 10 spots. Atlanta is a second-time payor, so they’re taxed at a 62% rate on spending up to the $297MM mark. The Giants shave nearly $7MM off their tax ledger and have an estimated $244MM mark at RosterResource. They’re still above the $237MM base threshold and may not be looking to drop any more money.

San Francisco also grabs a prospect in the deal. Ceballos, 21, was Atlanta’s third-round pick out of Oregon last year. A righty-hitting third baseman, he has a .259/.353/.354 slash with a 9.8% walk rate and 19.1% strikeout percentage in High-A this season. Baseball America ranked him as the #26 prospect in a weak Atlanta farm system, crediting him with a plus arm and some raw power upside.

As for Vines, he’ll either be traded tomorrow or (more likely) placed on waivers this week. The 26-year-old righty has made eight big league appearances, turning in a 5.45 ERA over 33 innings. He owns a 5.14 earned run average across 14 starts with Triple-A Gwinnett this season.

Mike Rodriguez first reported the Giants were trading Soler to the Braves. Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report Jackson’s inclusion. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Braves were assuming the entire contract.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers Acquire Frankie Montas

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The Reds and Brewers lined up on an intra-division trade Monday night. Cincinnati is reportedly sending right-hander Frankie Montas to Milwaukee for young outfielder Joey Wiemer, veteran right-hander Jakob Junis and cash.

Montas, 31, gives the Brewers a veteran arm to plug into a rotation that’s been decimated by injury, although the big right-hander isn’t having anywhere close to his best season. The longtime A’s hurler signed a one-year, $16MM contract after missing nearly the entire 2023 season due to shoulder surgery and hasn’t recaptured the form that established him as a quality big leaguer from 2019-22, when he logged 480 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with a 25.4% strikeout rate against a 7.2% walk rate.

Rather, the 2024 version of Montas is sitting on a 5.01 ERA with a diminished 19% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate that stands as his worst since 2017. His 95.3 mph average fastball is down 1.5 mph from its 96.8 mph peak back in 2019, and Montas has seen a huge dip in swinging-strike rate, falling from a peak 13.7% to 10.4% this season.

It’s been an ugly season for Montas, but the Brewers also have a history of getting more out of pitchers than one would expect at first glance. They’ve gotten strong results from righties Colin Rea and Tobias Myers this season despite minimal to nonexistent track records from both. Milwaukee presumably has a plan to get Montas back into form, but it’s nevertheless a modest surprise to see them deal a former top prospect (Wiemer) within the division to effectively rent Montas for the final two months of the 2024 season.

That said, Wiemer’s inclusion in the deal speaks to the manner in which his stock has dropped over the past year-plus. Entering the 2023 season, he was regarded by some as one of the sport’s top-100 prospects. However, the 2020 fourth-rounder stumbled through his first taste of the majors last year, hitting just .204/.283/.362 in 410 plate appearances. Wiemer pounded 13 homers and swiped 11 bags but also struck out in just under 29% of his plate appearances. He’s also shown glaring platoon splits in limited big league action, slashing .263/.290/.481 against lefties but registering a woeful .169/.271/.281 slash against fellow righties. Wiemer’s power has been missing in action this season in Triple-A Nashville, where he’s hit .242/.387/.358 with only three homers in 253 plate appearances.

Wiemer’s platoon splits suggest that he could at the very least be a useful part-time player, and he’s also graded out exceptionally well in the outfield. In 1095 innings across all three outfield spots — primarily center — he’s been credited with six Defensive Runs Saved, seven Outs Above Average and a 5.8 Ultimate Zone Rating. Statcast pegged him in the 93rd percentile of MLB outfielders in terms of range and 96th percentile in terms of value generated with his arm.

If nothing else, Wiemer has the look of a short-side platoon fourth outfielder. He’s in the second of three option years and is under club control through at least the 2029 season. The Reds will hope there’s some more in the tank, but pulling a controllable MLB-ready outfielder — even one in the midst of a down season — in exchange for the rental of a struggling veteran starter had some understandable appeal for Cincinnati.

The Reds will also pick up their own veteran rental in the deal. The 31-year-old Junis is on a one-year, $7MM contract that contains a mutual option for the 2025 season. He’s spent most of the year on the injured list but returned in June and has a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings, working primarily as a long reliever. He’s fanned 18.8% of his opponents against a 5% walk rate. Had Junis been healthy this year, he might’ve gotten a look in the rotation, but the Brewers must not be bullish on his chances of holding up in that role. He hasn’t worked more than three innings since returning from the injured list.

Junis gives the Reds an experienced swingman who could potentially start some games or at least serve as a bulk option behind an opener. His inclusion in the swap also adds something of a financial counterweight; Montas is owed $4.7MM of his $14MM salary still, plus the $2MM buyout on a $20MM mutual option for next season. Junis is still owed $1.35MM of his $4MM salary plus a $3MM buyout on his $8MM mutual option. (Mutual options, it should be noted, are generally accounting measures and are almost never exercised; it’s been about a decade since the last time a player and team both agreed to exercise a mutual option.)

The Brewers are reportedly still sending about $1MM to the Reds in the deal to offset the gap in the option buyouts. In total, Milwaukee is taking on about $3.35MM in extra expenses in order to facilitate the trade.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Brewers were acquiring Montas. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported Junis and Wiemer were headed back to Cincinnati. Feinsand reported the cash considerations.

Pirates Acquire Jalen Beeks From Rockies

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The Pirates announced the acquisition of lefty reliever Jalen Beeks from the Rockies for minor league reliever Luis Peralta. Pittsburgh had an open spot on their 40-man roster after this afternoon’s trade with the Red Sox.

Colorado claimed Beeks off waivers from the Rays over the winter. Tampa Bay was evidently not planning to tender him a contract for his final season of arbitration. Rather than allow him to hit the market, Colorado took a flier and agreed to a modest $1.675MM salary. Beeks has had a generally productive season. He’s second on the Rox with 49 1/3 innings out of the bullpen and has pitched in their highest-leverage spots overall.

Beeks has worked to a 4.74 ERA in 45 appearances. He’s carrying a career-low 18% strikeout rate and 9.2% swinging strike percentage. Beeks has a league average 8.5% walk percentage and 44.7% grounder rate. He somewhat bizarrely had far more success at Coors Field than he did on the road for the Rox.

A former 12th round pick of the Red Sox, Beeks had a solid run as a long reliever for Tampa Bay between 2019-22. He combined for a 3.70 ERA with average strikeout and walk numbers in 184 2/3 frames over that stretch. Beeks allowed nearly six earned runs per nine last season, though, leading the Rays to move on.

Pittsburgh plugs him behind Aroldis Chapman as the second lefty in Derek Shelton’s bullpen. They’re assuming roughly $500K in salary for the stretch run. Beeks will surpass the six-year service threshold in September and hit free agency at the beginning of the offseason. Colorado didn’t have much incentive to keep him, so they’ll cash him in for an intriguing bullpen prospect.

Peralta, 23, is the younger brother of Brewers staff ace Freddy Peralta. The 5’11” southpaw signed with Pittsburgh out of the Dominican Republic in 2017. Peralta has divided his season between High-A and Double-A, turning in a 0.91 ERA over 39 2/3 innings. He’s striking out an eye-opening 41% of batters faced against an elevated 11.5% walk rate. Baseball America had Peralta as the #24 prospect in the Pittsburgh system, writing that he relies heavily on a mid-90s fastball with good life at the top of the strike zone. He’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter if Colorado doesn’t select him onto the 40-man roster.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported the terms of the deal. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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