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Latest On Dylan Cease’s Trade Candidacy

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Few players have found their names in more trade rumors this winter than Dylan Cease. It has been widely expected the White Sox would move him. He’s down to his final two years of arbitration control and first-year GM Chris Getz has expressed a willingness to reshape the roster.

At the same time, Getz and his front office have set a high goal in trade discussions. Reports have suggested they’re seeking a return built around multiple top prospects. Teams like the Reds, Yankees, Dodgers and Braves were involved in Cease discussions but have pivoted to other free agent/trade targets after balking at Chicago’s ask.

Cease remains with the Sox less than a month from the opening of Spring Training. That has led to increasing speculation that Chicago could hold him into the season. One rival executive cast doubt on a Cease trade to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com yesterday, suggesting the White Sox aren’t showing any interest in backing off their asking price.

That’s a sentiment echoed by a few other reports. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted this morning that a pair of executives outside the organization believe Chicago will hold Cease until the deadline. Robert Murray of FanSided writes that the Sox don’t appear close to any deal, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests there’s a “growing belief” within the industry that Cease stays in Chicago until the summer.

None of that is a guarantee Cease won’t move in the coming weeks. There’s nothing to suggest the White Sox plan to cut off trade dialogue even as they hold firm to a lofty ask. Chicago believed they’d have increased leverage in talks once Yoshinobu Yamamoto came off the board. Yamamoto’s signing didn’t spur a deal, but it’s possible they’re taking a similar stance with regards to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.

The Orioles, Red Sox and Mets have, to varying degrees, been linked to Cease this offseason. The Angels, Padres and Pirates haven’t been directly tied to the righty but are generally known to be looking for starting pitching. Baltimore has perhaps been the subject of the most speculation, a reflection of their loaded minor league pipeline and the benefit of adding a high-octane arm to last year’s 101-win club. Heyman reports that the O’s are reluctant to part with 24-year-old infielder Jordan Westburg, in whom the Sox are apparently showing interest. The former first-round pick hit .260/.311/.404 through his first 68 MLB games and has six years of club control.

Cease agreed to an $8MM salary for his second-to-last season of arbitration. He’s looking to rebound from a somewhat disappointing 2023 campaign in which he posted a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. Cease still throws exceptionally hard and punched out 27.3% of opposing hitters a year ago. If the Sox do hold him into next season, he has the upside to be the most in-demand starter at the deadline.

José Berríos, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle have all returned multiple highly-regarded prospects in summer deals with a year and a half of control. Yet the Sox would also assume the risk of Cease suffering an injury or regression if they hold him for another few months.

It’s the biggest decision for Getz in his first offseason leading baseball operations. He pulled the trigger on a deal sending reliever Aaron Bummer to the Braves for a five-player return at the start of the offseason. Getz and his staff have otherwise slow-played things thus far, supplementing the roster on the margins with fairly low-cost free agent pickups (i.e. Erick Fedde, Martín Maldonado, Chris Flexen, Tim Hill, Paul DeJong).

Blue Jays Reportedly In Agreement With Yariel Rodríguez

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The Blue Jays and right-hander Yariel Rodríguez have agreed on a contract, per reporter Francys Romero. The details aren’t known but Romero says that the WME client is expected to have his physical in Toronto in the coming days. It was reported yesterday that the Jays were optimistic about signing the righty but that immigration issues needed to be sorted out. As he’s now apparently headed to Canada, it would appear those issues have been resolved. Toronto has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this deal official. Per Romero, the agreement is for four years and $32MM.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic confirms that there is an agreement but adds that immigration hurdles remain. Enrique Rojas of ESPN reports (Spanish-language ESPN link and X post) that Rodríguez will actually do his physical in The United States but is waiting for a visa that will allow him to enter that country from the Dominican Republic.

Rodríguez, 27 in March, has been an interesting wild card of this offseason. He had pitched as a starter at the beginning of his career in Cuba but then was moved to the bullpen during a three-year stint in Japan. He then briefly returned to a starting role for Cuba in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, then didn’t return to his club in Japan. He was eventually granted his release and has been holding showcases for MLB clubs.

Players coming to North America from leagues in other countries will often have wide ranges of evaluations from MLB clubs. Given the unusual path of Rodríguez, that variance might be even higher than normal. An optimistic club could look to his youth, past work as a starter and strong results as a reliever in 2022. But on the pessimistic side of things, the righty hasn’t worked as a starter in many years and hardly pitched at all in 2023, which gives him an uncertain path forward. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Rodríguez could secure a four-year, $32MM deal.

He began his career in the 2015-16 season of the Cuban National Series when he was just 18 years old. He pitched in 91 games in that league over multiple seasons, starting 72 of those and posting a combined earned run average of 3.30 in 464 1/3 innings. For the 2020 season, he signed with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. That club kept him in the bullpen over the next three seasons. He tossed 175 1/3 innings in that time with a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 25.4% of opponents while walking 10.4% of them. His 2022 campaign was especially impressive, with a 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 innings, striking out 27.5% of opponents while walking just 8.3%. He made two starts in the WBC, throwing 7 1/3 innings with 10 Ks but six walks.

Rodríguez got plenty of interest this offseason, with many clubs attending his showcases. The Rays, Red Sox, Padres, Astros, Pirates, Yankees and Reds all were connected to him at various points, with some viewing him as a starter while others considered him a better fit as a reliever. The Jays were one of the clubs that viewed him as a capable starter and they appeared to emerge as the favorite to land him in recent weeks.

The Jays came into the winter with their pitching staff in decent shape while their lineup seemingly needed more attention. But adding some pitching was also still a consideration for the club, as shown by their interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell. The Jays have four rotation spots spoken for, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi all still with the club for 2024.

But the final spot in the rotation is a bit more murky. Alek Manoah had a rotation job coming into last year but struggled badly enough that he was twice optioned to the minors. Hyun Jin Ryu returned from his Tommy John surgery rehab midseason and supplanted Manoah in the rotation, but then reached free agency at season’s end.  The relationship between Manoah and the Jays may not be perfect after last year’s struggles but he was still considered to have an edge on a rotation spot not too long ago.

Manoah’s name has also been in some trade rumors this winter and it’s possible that bringing Rodríguez aboard makes a deal more likely. But as mentioned, Rodríguez didn’t pitch last year after the WBC and was working as a reliever for the previous three seasons. The Jays likely don’t expect him to suddenly pitch 200 or even 150 innings this year without issue, meaning he might be more of a long-term project. It’s entirely possible that they keep Manoah and then have Rodríguez working multi-inning stints out of the bullpen with an eye on a larger workload in 2025 and beyond.

They also have other potential starters on the roster, such as Mitch White, Bowden Francis and Wes Parsons. Not yet on the roster but in the mix is prospect Ricky Tiedemann, who is on the cusp of the majors after he reached Triple-A last year. However, injuries limited him to just 62 innings for the year, between the minors and then a stint in the Arizona Fall League. Similar to Rodríguez, he will likely have some sort of workload limit in front of him this year.

There are still a few unanswered questions for the Jays. How Rodríguez looks in spring and then how he proceeds throughout the year will undoubtedly impact the answers to those questions. If he becomes a viable starter going forward, he can help the Jays absorb some upcoming departures. Kikuchi is slated for free agency after 2024, Bassitt after 2025 and Gausman after 2026. If that doesn’t pan out, the club will be hoping for a fallback plan of him settling in as an asset in their bullpen. Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are slated for free agency after 2024 while each of Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Chad Green, Tim Mayza and Génesis Cabrera are slated for the open market after 2025.

If the Jays have enough confidence in Rodríguez and the rest of their staff, perhaps they can use it to address their lineup in some way. They lost Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield to free agency a few months ago and have thus far made one addition by signing glove-first utility player Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

The club can still sign free agents, with each of Chapman, Belt and Merrifield still being available, but it’s possible the budget is getting tight. Roster Resource estimates the club’s payroll is at $221MM, just a bit above last year’s $215MM, with their competitive balance tax figure at $231MM. The club’s CEO/president Mark Shapiro had previously indicated this year’s payroll would likely be similar to last year’s. The details of the deal for Rodríguez still aren’t known but the club will be pushed further beyond last year’s payroll. Their CBT number will also surely wind up over the $237MM base threshold.

A trade could allow the club to get another bat or two without having to pay open-market prices for current free agents, but it’s also possible there’s still more spending capacity for a free agent addition. The club has been connected to sluggers like Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez and others.

Kendall Graveman Expected To Miss 2024 Season Following Shoulder Surgery

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Astros right-hander Kendall Graveman underwent shoulder surgery last week and is expected to miss the 2024 season as a result, the team announced Tuesday. The team did not specify the nature of the procedure.

Graveman, 33, missed the 2023 postseason due to shoulder troubles. Doctors recommended a rest-and-rehab approach to the injury, and that proceeded well enough for the right-hander to begin throwing from flat ground as he ramped up for spring training. However, Graveman experienced renewed discomfort at some point upon resuming a throwing a program, leading to last week’s surgery.

Houston reacquired Graveman in a deadline trade that sent young catcher Korey Lee back to Chicago. The veteran Graveman had thrived with the Astros down the stretch in 2021 before signing as three-year, $24MM contract with the ChiSox in free agency. He returned to Minute Maid Park and posted a 2.42 ERA over 22 1/3 innings down the stretch. The performance wasn’t without its red flags, however; Graveman maintained a strong 25% strikeout rate but also posted an uncharacteristic 16.7% walk rate following the trade. Whether that was just an anomaly in a relatively small sample of an indicator that he wasn’t pitching at 100% can’t be fully known, but the end result is the same regardless of when the shoulder troubles initially became apparent.

The loss of Graveman is significant for the Astros. His acquisition was expected to fill a key role both in the 2023 and 2024 bullpen, but their relief corps will now be depleted further than anticipated. Houston has already seen righties Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton become free agents this winter. With Graveman shelved, the setup bridge to closer Ryan Pressly becomes murkier. Bryan Abreu was brilliant in 2023 for a second straight season, but the rest of the setup corps is suspect.

Rafael Montero is entering the second season of a three-year, $34.5MM contract that looks regrettable after he limped to a 5.08 ERA in 67 1/3 frames during year one of the deal. The veteran righty did improve in the season’s second half, but it clearly wasn’t the year owner Jim Crane envisioned when signing Montero early last offseason before he had a general manager in place to take over for James Click.

Other setup options on the 40-man roster lack an established MLB track record. Each of Ronel Blanco, Bennett Sousa, Seth Martinez, Dylan Coleman, Oliver Ortega and Parker Mushinski has some MLB experience, but there are no proven options among the bunch.

For an Astros club that has seemingly been operating on a tight budget this winter, the Graveman injury is all the more problematic. General manager Dana Brown candidly acknowledged earlier in the offseason that he wasn’t working with much payroll flexiblity.

Graveman is set to earn an $8MM salary this coming season, and that money will still count against the team’s luxury ledger. Houston is right up against the luxury-tax threshold and ostensibly prefers not to cross that line. Perhaps that’ll push the team more toward the trade market if the plan to is to bring in some bullpen help from outside the organization, but an $8MM hit for a player who likely won’t pitch at all in 2024 is an unwelcome development for a front office that’s already been dealing with budgetary restrictions.

Giants Sign Jordan Hicks

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The Giants announced that they have signed a four-year, $44MM contract with free agent right-hander Jordan Hicks. The righty will get a one-time signing bonus of $2MM, a $6MM salary in 2024, followed by a $12MM salary in the three subsequent years. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the deal and added that the Giants plan to utilize Hicks as a starter rather than a reliever. Hicks, who is represented by the Ballengee Group, can also earn an additional $2MM of annual incentives based on innings pitched, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Those incentives begin kicking in at the 100-inning mark, she adds.

A move back to the rotation is surprising, but it won’t be an entirely unfamiliar role for the flamethrowing 27-year-old. Hicks worked as a starter in the minors before debuting in the Cardinals’ bullpen during the 2018 season, and St. Louis briefly experimented with a move back to the rotation early in the 2022 campaign. That didn’t pan out — he yielded 16 runs in 24 2/3 innings before moving back to a relief role — but the Giants will try their hand at maximizing Hicks’ explosive arsenal out of their own rotation. The Giants have indeed shown a knack for helping pitchers break out — Kevin Gausman chief among them — and Hicks clearly has the type of raw stuff to intrigue clubs in a larger role.

Few pitchers can rival Hicks in terms of sheer velocity. He’s averaged 100.8 mph on his four-seamer and 100.2 mph on his two-seamer to this point in his career and has topped out at borderline comical 105 mph. The former third-round pick couples that blistering velocity with a slider that sits at 86.5 mph, and he’s thrown very occasional “changeups” in the past (never higher than at a 4%  clip) — sitting 91.8 mph on that pitch overall.

Given the uncommonly young age at which he reached the open market and the overpowering nature of his raw arsenal, Hicks has long felt like a pitcher who’d command substantial interest despite a more modest track record. MLBTR ranked him 21st on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year, $40MM contract from a club believing it could unlock another gear in the righty.

As one might expect for a pitcher with this type of superhuman velocity, durability has been an issue. Hicks has never pitched more than 105 innings between the big leagues and minors combined in any season of his career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019, had a 60-day IL stint due to inflammation in that same elbow in 2021, and missed more than a month of the 2022 season due to a flexor strain. Hicks returned from that injury in early July and was placed back on the injured list in mid-September due to arm fatigue.

Of course, when he’s healthy and at his best, Hicks can be flat-out overpowering. He sports a career 3.85 ERA, but that’s skewed by 10 ugly innings prior to his UCL tear in 2019 and by his rough work as a starter in 2022. In 2023, Hicks turned in a 3.29 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate and a 58.3% ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings between the Cardinals and the Blue Jays, who acquired him from St. Louis at the trade deadline in exchange for minor league pitchers Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse. That ground-ball rate is nothing new; Hicks boasts a sensational 60.4% grounder rate in his career. Unfortunately, last year’s command troubles aren’t new either. He’s issued a free pass to an unsightly 12.8% of his opponents in the Majors.

Given last year’s innings count — and totals of 66 1/3 and 13 frames in the two preceding seasons — it’s difficult to imagine Hicks simply stepping into a rotation and firing off 30-plus starts, even if he’s able to remain healthy. The Giants figure to place him on some kind of innings limit in 2024, whether that means capping him at five innings per start, using him to piggyback with another starter, or simply giving him some occasional spells in the bullpen to keep his arm fresh.

An ideal setting might see Hicks move to the bullpen late in the season right as recent trade acquisition Robbie Ray returns from Tommy John surgery, though a lot needs to go right before that’s a legitimate consideration. If Hicks is able to both remain healthy and pitch effectively as a starter this coming season, the team could give him a larger workload come 2025. At that point, plugging Hicks and Ray into the rotation behind ace Logan Webb could give San Francisco a formidable trio. That’s a major “if,” but the upside is intriguing.

For the time being, Hicks will add another question mark to a rotation that’s teeming with uncertainty behind Webb, a 2023 Cy Young Award finalist. Webb led the Majors with 216 innings pitched last year, but Alex Cobb and Sean Manaea were the only other Giants pitchers to reach even 100 innings. Manaea has since signed with the Mets in free agency, and Cobb will open the 2024 season on the injured list while he recovers from hip surgery.

Hicks joins veteran swingman Ross Stripling, top prospect Kyle Harrison and young righties Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck as candidates to fill out the rotation behind Webb. Twenty-five-year-old righty Kai-Wei Teng, who walked nearly 14% of his opponents in Triple-A last year, is the only other starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. Top prospect Carson Whisenhunt is surely viewed as a potential rotation mainstay by Giants brass, but he’s pitched just 19 2/3 innings above A-ball and in all likelihood won’t be an option until the 2025 campaign.

It seems fair to envision the Giants making further additions to their rotation, given all that instability, although with both Cobb and Ray on the mend, there will be veteran reinforcements filtering in as the season wears on. Still, the Giants entered the offseason with question marks on the pitching staff and throughout the lineup, and many of those needs remain unaddressed. Adding a more established arm — be it a mid-tier arm in the Mike Clevinger/Michael Lorenzen/Hyun Jin Ryu vein or a top-tier starter like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery — still seems both prudent and well within the Giants’ budgetary capacity.

As it stands, the Giants’ payroll currently projects to about $167MM, per Roster Resource, while their luxury-tax ledger sits nearly $30MM shy of the $237MM first-tier threshold. San Francisco opened the 2023 season with a $188MM payroll and has previously put forth a $200MM roster in the past, so there ought to be considerable room for further augmentation on the free agent and/or trade markets.

Braves Extend Alex Anthopoulos Through 2031

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The Braves announced this morning that they’ve signed president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos to an extension that will keep him with the team through the 2031 season. Anthopoulos had previously been entering the final season of a three-year contract extension that spanned the 2022-24 seasons. He’ll now be in Atlanta for an additional seven years.

“Alex and I have enjoyed a wonderful working relationship, and I look forward to that continuing for many years to come,” Braves CEO Terry McGuirk said in the team’s press release announcing the extension.

“I have been around this game a very long time and know that Alex’s track record of success is truly something special. There is simply no one better in the business. This extension gives Alex the runway to make long-term decisions and the opportunity to continue his track record of assembling teams that are perennial contenders. I have the utmost confidence in his ability to deliver championship baseball for our fans well into the future.”

The seven-year term of the contract extension is massive in relation to Anthopoulos’ baseball operations peers throughout the sport; most president of baseball operations and/or general manager contracts are three to five years in length. Given the unparalleled young core that the Braves have not only developed but also largely managed to sign to club-friendly contract extensions under Anthopoulos’ watch, however, it’s not surprising to see the team reward him with an uncommonly lengthy contract of his own — one that’ll allow him to see the bulk of those player extensions play out in full.

The 46-year-old Anthopoulos’ ascension to the top of the sport’s executive sphere is one rooted in the humblest of beginnings. His first job in baseball came with the Expos, where he was an unpaid intern working in their mail room and printing stat sheets. Expos scouts eventually took Anthopoulos under their wing, and he was moved to the team’s scouting department before being hired by the Blue Jays in 2003. From there, Anthopoulos climbed the ranks of Toronto’s baseball operations staff, rising all the way to general manager — a role he’d hold through 2015 before rejecting an extension under incoming president and CEO Mark Shapiro.

The Dodgers quickly added Anthopoulos to their front office, hiring him as a vice president of baseball operations working alongside president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman and then-GM Farhan Zaidi. That proved to be less than a two-year stop, as Atlanta hired Anthopoulos away from Los Angeles and named him general manager after former GM John Coppolella was dismissed and banned from baseball following reported violations on the international free agent market and in the MLB draft. (Major League Baseball lifted Coppolella’s “lifetime” ban after six years, in 2023.)

While some of the core pieces comprising the Braves’ roster were signed or drafted under the former regime — most notably, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Max Fried — it was Anthopoulos who oversaw the extensions for each of Acuna (eight years, $100MM), Albies (seven years, $35MM) and Riley (ten years, $212MM). While Anthopoulos himself doesn’t necessarily oversee the draft, he did hire now-former scouting director Dana Brown — who’s since been hired as Houston’s general manager — and set the stage for a remarkable run of success in the amateur draft. (Brown and Anthopoulos worked together both in Montreal and in Toronto.)

From 2019 onward, Atlanta drafted names like Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, Vaughn Grissom and Shea Langeliers (among others), each of whom has either emerged as a core contributor or been included in a trade to help build out the club’s current roster. (Langeliers was sent to Oakland in the Matt Olson trade; Grissom recently was traded to the Red Sox for Chris Sale.)

In addition to Acuna, Albies and Riley, Anthopoulos has succeeded in brokering long-term deals with the majority of Atlanta’s core. While Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson did ultimately depart in free agency — and Fried could well do the same next winter — the Braves have had more success on the extension front than any team in the game. Harris inked an eight-year, $72MM deal midway through his rookie season. Strider followed suit with a six-year, $75MM contract.

Less than 48 hours after acquiring Olson in what’s now a wildly lopsided trade with the A’s (who received Langeliers, Cristian Pache, Joey Estes and Ryan Cusick in return), Anthopoulos signed his new first baseman to an eight-year, $168MM extension. A year later, Anthopoulos again pried a star away from Oakland on the trade market, acquiring catcher Sean Murphy in a three-team deal that sent William Contreras to Milwaukee. As with Olson, Murphy quickly put pen to paper on a new contract: a six-year, $73MM deal.

The Braves, under Anthopoulos, have also made veteran Charlie Morton a fixture in the rotation, repeatedly signing him and extending him on a series of short-term contracts. Morton, originally drafted by Atlanta back in 2002, is now entering his fourth straight season as a Brave and has given the team 521 innings of 3.77 ERA ball and was a key part of the team’s 2021 postseason staff (3.24 ERA in 16 2/3 innings). Similarly, catcher/designated hitter Travis d’Arnaud has become a veteran staple on the club, winning a Silver Slugger in 2020 and making the 2022 All-Star team while combining for a solid .256/.315/.446 slash in four seasons since originally signing.

That 2021 postseason run, of course, is the crowning achievement of Anthopoulos’ career thus far. The Braves, powered by a juggernaut core and buoyed by deadline acquisitions like Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario, blitzed through the second half of the season as the sport’s hottest team and rode that momentum all the way to a 2021 World Series title.

As with any baseball operations executive, not every move Anthopoulos has made has worked out. The three-year, $40MM deal for lefty Will Smith and the four-year, $65MM signing of Marcell Ozuna have had mixed results, at best, and the trade to swap out Smith for Odorizzi played out poorly as well. Smith rebounded in Houston, while Odorizzi struggled in Atlanta before being sent to the Rangers, with the Braves remaining on the hook for the bulk of his 2023 salary after Odorizzi exercised a player option. The Braves also acquired Kevin Gausman at what now looks like a bargain rate from the Orioles in 2018 but cut him loose via waivers a year later after he struggled in Atlanta. Gausman signed with the Giants the following offseason, broke out in San Francisco, and has since become a bona fide No. 1 starter in Toronto, where he signed a five-year free agent deal.

In comparison to the litany of successes under Anthopoulos, however, those misses are relatively minor in nature. And, while perhaps the Braves would like mulligans on some of those decisions, the simple fact of the matter is that none of them have stood as roadblocks to success. The Braves have won the NL East in all six of Anthopoulos’ seasons as general manager, and the team’s unrivaled collection of talent under long-term contract has positioned Atlanta as a legitimate dynasty in the division.

We’re reminded each year of the MLB postseason’s intrinsic randomness, but it’d be a surprise if the Braves didn’t reach the playoffs in the majority of the seasons under this new contract for their president — and another World Series appearance (if not victory) wouldn’t be a bad bet, either. It’s somewhat fitting that an executive known for his ability to hammer out club-friendly extensions now secures his own long-term deal — one that’ll assure him the opportunity to reap the benefits of the incredible crop of talent that’s been drafted, acquired, developed and signed long-term under his watch.

“I’d like to thank Terry for his continued support and trust,” Anthopoulos said in his own statement this morning. “The Braves are an incredible organization to be a part of, and I’m proud of the success we’ve achieve together. I am grateful for the opportunity to continue to lead baseball operations and to strive to bring another World Series to Atlanta.”

2024 Arbitration Tracker

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Today is the deadline for players and teams to exchange figures in arbitration — an annual deadline that leads to a slew of one-year deals and, typically, a handful of multi-year deals. Today should see upwards of 100 players agree to salaries for the 2024 season, although the majority of clubs and players now wait until the very last minute to agree. The deadline for agreements is noon CT, and we’ll see terms on plenty of last-minute/buzzer-beating deals filter in shortly thereafter. Players and teams that do not reach an agreement will exchange salary figures at 7pm CT tonight.

Each player’s service time is in parentheses, and you can of course check back to see each player’s projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. We’ll keep this updated as deals come in — refresh for updates — and break off some of the larger, more prominent agreements in separate entries. All agreements are for one year unless otherwise noted.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Yankees Sign Marcus Stroman

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The Yankees’ rotation has gotten a boost, as the club has announced that they have signed veteran righty Marcus Stroman. It’s a two-year deal with a conditional player option for 2026 that reportedly comes with a $37MM guarantee. The 2026 vesting option would become an $18MM player option if he reaches 140 innings in 2025. Stroman is represented by Roc Nation Sports.

Stroman, 33 in May, was a first-round pick by the Blue Jays in the 2012 draft. A fast riser to the big leagues, the right-hander made is debut in 2014 and performed well in his rookie season with a 3.65 ERA and 2.84 FIP in 130 2/3 innings of work. Though Stroman was limited to just four starts in his sophomore season by a torn ACL, the righty established himself as a fixture in Toronto’s rotation in the following years.

By the time the club shipped him to the Mets in a deal at the 2019 trade deadline, Stroman had compiled a solid 3.76 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 135 appearances (129 starts) in a Blue Jays uniform. The right-hander’s tenure in New York was somewhat shortened by him opting out of the shortened 2020 campaign, but Stroman pitched well when on the mound for the Mets, including a 3.02 ERA and 3.49 FIP across a league-leading 33 starts during the 2021 season.

Having accepted a qualifying offer to return to the Mets in 2021, Stroman entered the 2021-22 offseason as an unrestricted free agent and found a new team quickly, agreeing to a three-year deal with the Cubs just before the players were locked out in early December. Stroman pitched solidly in his first season as a Cub, with a 3.50 ERA and 3.76 FIP across 138 2/3 innings of work. Entering the 2023 campaign, it appeared the righty had taken a step forward at the age of 32 as he pitched to an incredible 2.28 ERA with a 3.33 FIP in 98 2/3 innings of work across the first 16 starts of his season.

Unfortunately, things came apart from there as Stroman allowed a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in just 27 innings across his next six starts before heading to the injured list with a hip issue. His stay on the shelf was extended by a rib cartilage fracture and by the time he returned to action in mid-September, the veteran righty was only able to muster eight middling innings of performance over his final four appearances in a Cubs uniform. Despite the rough second half, Stroman nonetheless finished the 2023 campaign with solid overall numbers, including a 3.95 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work.

Likely with his sights on a multiyear deal, Stroman opted of the final year and $21MM of his deal with the Cubs, returning to free agency. Stroman’s free agent market remained quiet for much of the offseason, though he was connected to the Royals before Kansas City ultimately opted to add right-handers Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo last month. The righty’s market reportedly picked up as the calendar flipped to 2024, with Heyman noting that the Red Sox, Orioles, Giants, and Angels were among the teams interested in the veteran’s services outside of the Bronx.  Ultimately, Stroman’s contract matches well with the two-year, $44MM prediction MLBTR made back on November 6th.

Now, Stroman is set to return to New York to pitch on the other side of the Subway Series. The right-hander adds some veteran stability to the club’s rotation behind ace Gerrit Cole after southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both produced uneven, injury-marred campaigns in 2023. As things stand, right-handed youngster Clarke Schmidt figures to round out the club’s starting quintet after producing solid back-end results across 33 appearances (32 starts) with the Yankees last year.

While Stroman has never been much of a strikeout artist, typically punching out around 20% of batters faced in a given year, he sports a strong 6.9% walk rate for his career and has been extremely effective at keeping the ball on the ground across his ten years as a major league player. Stroman’s groundball rate has never dipped below 50% throughout his career, and his 57.1% grounder rate last year actually slightly surpasses his career mark of 56.7%. Only Logan Webb, Framber Valdez, and Dallas Keuchel have generated grounders at a higher clip than Stroman throughout their careers among active players, and only Webb walks fewer batters among that group. It’s a style of play that should work particularly well in Yankee stadium, which was the third-most homer friendly park in the majors last year according to Statcast.

The addition of Stroman takes the Yankees over the final $297MM luxury tax threshold, with RosterResource projecting the club for a luxury tax payroll of just under $306MM in 2024.  Every dollar the Yankees spend beyond that $297MM threshold will be taxed at a whopping 110% rate, given the team’s status as a third-time payor in 2024. The club’s actual 2024 payroll is similarly high, sitting at just over $294MM. That will be the highest payroll in club history, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Adding a starting pitcher to the club’s rotation appeared to be the Yankees’ biggest need at this point in the offseason, so it’s possible the club is mostly done for the winter at this point. Recent reports have indicated the club has some level of interest in the likes of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber and Jesus Luzardo, including a report earlier today that the club had made an offer to Snell. All of that was prior to the club’s addition of Stroman, of course, though it’s at least feasible the club could look to add another starter to pair with Cole at the front of the rotation, likely pushing Schmidt into a swing role out of the bullpen.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that the sides were “making progress” on a deal. Mike Mayer of Metsmerized was first with the sides coming to an agreement. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the deal, which is pending a physical, is for two years with an option for a third. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the deal’s average annual value of $18.5MM a season, while Heyman first added that the third year is a vesting option. Sherman reported further details on the option.

Yankees, Juan Soto Avoid Arbitration

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The Yankees and star outfielder Juan Soto have avoided arbitration, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The sides settled upon a $31MM salary for the 2024 season — a new record for the largest salary every agreed to by an arbitration-eligible player. Soto, a client of the Boras Corporation, surpasses the $30MM benchmark that was established by two-time AL MVP Shohei Ohtani just last offseason.

The 25-year-old Soto is coming off another strong season at the plate. After being shipped to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline, the young phenom struggled with his new club early in the 2023 campaign with a .183/.345/.344 slash line in his first 27 games.

Soto managed to flip a switch from there, however, slashing an excellent .293/.423/.554 the rest of the way to elevate his season-long slash line to a strong .275/.410/.519. The performance saw Soto walk more often than he struck out for the fourth consecutive season, earn his third consecutive All-Star appearance as well as his fourth consecutive Silver Slugger award, and finish sixth in NL MVP voting while appearing in all 162 games for San Diego.

Between that walk year performance and the three prior times he’d been through the arbitration process as a Super Two player, Soto now stands alone as the highest-paid arbitration player in history (at least on a one-year deal). A new record was always the expectation; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s model projected a $33MM salary for Soto, and both the Padres and the Yankees were surely anticipating a new highwater mark as well.

The looming precedent served as the impetus behind the deal that shipped Soto to the Bronx earlier this winter, as the Yankees surrendered right-handers Michael King, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez as well as catcher Kyle Higashioka and top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe to acquire Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham. The Padres, after years of ultra-aggressive spending in free agency and on the trade market, were known to be looking to scale back payroll by as much as $50MM and simultaneously looking to replenish a rotation mix that lost Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha to free agency.

Soto’s stop in the Bronx could well be for one year, though the Yankees will surely do everything in their power to keep him long-term. However, he’ll reach free agency at just 26 years of age next winter and do so as one of the most accomplished young bats to ever reach the open market so early.

The rarity of this type of talent becoming a free agent at such a young age could position Soto to command a contract in excess of the $460MM net present value of Ohtani’s extraordinarily deferred 10-year, $700MM deal — and it’s also possible that he could lock in the lengthiest contract ever put forth if he and agent Scott Boras prioritize that. Last offseason saw teams willing to dole out contracts greater than a decade in length to Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts, each running through the players’ age-40 season. A contract covering Soto’s age-40 season would need to extend a mammoth 15 years in length, but for a player of this caliber at such a young age, anything could be on the table.

Soto, in fact, already rejected a staggering 15-year, $440MM contract offer from the Nationals back in 2021, which led to his original trade from D.C. to San Diego. Detractors panned the decision at the time, but with today’s $31MM agreement, he’ll already have pocketed $54MM since spurning that overture. He’ll “only” need to top $386MM in free agency to come out ahead, and as surreal as that number sounds, it also feels quite feasible.

Any talk of a record-setting deal (or close to it) in free agency next winter is putting the cart before the horse to some extent, of course. Soto will need to remain healthy in 2024 and continue to produce at the prodigious levels we’ve come to expect throughout his incredible big league tenure. Despite having just turned 25 in October, Soto already has 160 career home runs and is a lifetime .284/.421/.524 hitter in 3375 plate appearances. That incredible OBP currently stands as the 19th-best mark in MLB history.

Yankees Have Made Offer To Blake Snell

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The Yankees have made an opening contract offer to free agent starter Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, but Heyman adds the team and Snell’s representatives at the Boras Corporation remain “far apart” in talks.

New York is one of the teams that has been most frequently connected to Snell in recent weeks. That’s at least in part because they’re seemingly involved on most or all of the big-name pitchers available. They’ve been linked to old friend Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency. On the trade front, reports have tied the Yankees to the likes of Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo and Shane Bieber.

It doesn’t seem they’re all that close on any of those players. Heyman reports the Yankees have thus far balked at Chicago’s asking price on Cease, which he adds involves a prospect package centered around 2022 first-round pick Spencer Jones. Baseball America recently ranked Jones, who hit .268/.337/.450 with 13 homers in High-A last year, as the #2 talent in the New York farm system. That’s consistent with various reports that Chicago wants multiple high-end prospects for Cease.

Meanwhile, Heyman notes there’s been “no traction” between the Yankees and Miami on talks involving Luzardo or righty Edward Cabrera. It’s unclear whether rentals like Bieber or Corbin Burnes will move this offseason. If New York doesn’t pick up steam on any of their trade conversations — they’ve surely discussed possibilities beyond what has been publicly reported — that could increase their urgency to add a top-of-the-rotation starter via free agency.

Snell and Montgomery are the clear top two options available. The incumbent Rangers have been linked to Montgomery throughout the offseason. Teams like the Angels, Giants, Phillies and Red Sox have been tied to both left-handers. The Giants and Halos have been more frequently linked to Snell than have the latter two clubs.

The Yankees are the first team known to have an offer on the table (although that’s certainly not to say there aren’t others that were unreported). Snell is coming off his second career Cy Young campaign. He worked to an MLB-best 2.25 ERA over 180 innings. He fanned over 31% of batters faced and was utterly dominant down the stretch, posting a 1.23 ERA from June 1 onward. His command is erratic, but few pitchers are as difficult to hit when they’re on.

A pursuit of Snell is fairly reminiscent of last winter’s run at Carlos Rodón, another left-hander with huge stuff coming off an excellent platform year despite some career inconsistency. Rodón’s six-year, $162MM deal looked disastrous in year one. While one could argue that should make the Yankees gun-shy about pursuing a similar pitcher, it also increases the need for another high-end starter. Neither Rodón nor Nestor Cortes looked like top-of-the-rotation arms last season. That leaves New York looking for another star to pitch behind Gerrit Cole and reduce some of the pressure on Rodón and Cortes.

MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM deal for Snell, who turned 31 last month. A signing team would also forfeit draft compensation because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. For a team that paid the luxury tax like the Yankees, that’d be their second- and fifth-highest selections next year and $1MM in international signing bonus space. New York’s luxury tax payroll sits around $291MM, according to Roster Resource. They’re taxed at a 95% rate on spending up to the $297MM mark and will pay a 110% tax on every dollar beyond that figure.

Reds To Sign Brent Suter

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The Reds are in agreement with left-hander Brent Suter on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a $3MM guarantee that takes the form of a $2.5MM salary in 2024 and a $500K buyout on a $3.5MM club option for ’25. The deal is still pending a physical for the Diamond Sports Management client. Cincinnati will need to make a corresponding move to clear a spot on the 40-man roster once the contract is finalized.

It’s the latest move in a pitching-heavy offseason. The Reds have added Frankie Montas to the rotation and Emilio Pagán to the late innings. Swingman Nick Martinez could contribute in either role. Suter seems ticketed for the bullpen, although he reportedly drew some interest as a starting pitcher this winter.

The 34-year-old has spent the past half-decade in relief. Suter saw some work out of the rotation early in his career with the Brewers. Despite finding a decent amount of success, he was pushed to the bullpen by 2019 as Milwaukee graduated pitchers with higher caliber stuff.

While Suter isn’t a prototypical power reliever, he has been a valuable bullpen piece. The Harvard product has turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in five straight seasons. Suter’s profile has been built around strong control and excellent contact suppression. He has posted better than average ground-ball rates over the past five seasons and is consistently one of the game’s toughest pitchers to square up.

Opponents have averaged between 84-86 MPH in exit velocity in each of the last four seasons, per Statcast. That ranked in the 95th percentile or better in all four years. Batters made hard contact (an exit velocity at or above 95 MPH) on only 26.3% of their batted balls a season ago. Among qualified pitchers, only Phil Maton, Tom Cosgrove and Tanner Scott did a better job avoiding authoritative contact.

The ability to stay off barrels allowed Suter to overcome hitter-friendly home environments. He turned in strong results in Milwaukee and had no issues acclimating to Colorado’s Coors Field after a waiver claim last offseason. In 69 1/3 innings, he turned in a 3.38 ERA for the Rockies, including a 3.66 mark in 32 frames in Denver. A track record of success in difficult home parks is surely appealing to a front office building a pitching staff in Great American Ball Park.

Nevertheless, teams generally harbor skepticism about a pitcher who succeeds on guile and command without overpowering pure stuff. Suter’s only season with an above-average strikeout rate came during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. Last year, he punched out just 18.8% of opponents while sitting in the mid-upper 80s with his sinker and four-seam fastball.

Suter’s age and lack of velocity was always likely to limit his market. It’s still somewhat surprising that he landed a $3MM guarantee. Next year’s salary is a half million dollars below the $3MM he made last year, his final arbitration season. Suter grew up in Cincinnati and attended high school there, so it seems fair to presume that geography played a role in his decision — particularly if his camp was sorting through a number of low-cost, one-year offers.

He joins Sam Moll and Alex Young as left-handed relief options for skipper David Bell. The Reds have Alexis Díaz in the ninth inning and brought back Buck Farmer to join Pagán and Lucas Sims as right-handed setup candidates. Ian Gibaut, who is out of options, could compete with Fernando Cruz and Tejay Antone for the final spot or two in the middle innings.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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