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Seven Teams Emerge As Top Suitors For Yamamoto

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While the baseball world awaits movement on Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto has emerged as the #3 name on the offseason market. The right-hander is the most popular starting pitcher in free agency and has been tied to virtually every big spender (and a few less traditional suitors).

Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that seven teams have stepped forward as the key players in the Yamamoto bidding. That group includes (listed alphabetically) the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mets and Yankees. Two other “mystery teams” are also involved.

None of those teams come as a surprise. They’ve all previously been linked to Yamamoto, while a few have openly discussed him as a target. Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns recently flew to Japan to sit down with the 25-year-old righty. Yamamoto will make his own trip this weekend, when he’s scheduled to come to the U.S. to chat with interested teams.

At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $225MM contract. It seems that could end up being light. In an appearance on Foul Territory yesterday, Ken Rosenthal noted there’s a general expectation that Yamamoto’s deal will land “considerably higher” than $200MM.

Yamamoto is coming off a third consecutive Sawamura award as Japan’s top pitcher. He turned in a 1.21 ERA over 164 innings while striking out 169 batters. Evaluators are nearly unanimous in projecting Yamamoto as at least a #2 caliber starter in the majors with a shot to be an ace. Between that dominance and nearly unprecedented youth for a free agent pitcher, he’s one of the most appealing in recent history.

That has made him a target for virtually all the big-market clubs. It stands to reason the Jays’ interest is contingent on Ohtani’s decision. (Toronto general manager Ross Atkins told reporters this week they didn’t plan to add two players from the top of the market.) The Giants and Dodgers are also believed to remain in the race for Ohtani, who could sign in the next few days. The Yankees are reportedly on the verge of acquiring Soto but still seem to be engaged on Yamamoto, while the Mets have made no secret of the fact that Yamamoto is their top offseason priority.

Report: Ohtani Decision “Expected” By Sunday

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As the ongoing free agency of Shohei Ohtani continues to hold up the remainder of the free agent and trade markets, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the two-time American League MVP is expected to make a decision on his free-agent destination before the end of the weekend.

Ohtani’s free agency has, by design, been shrouded in secrecy. He and agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports have worked to keep rumors of his potential destination under wraps, and many clubs have reportedly been wary of leaking information or commenting on Ohtani’s free agency in any capacity, for fear that it may hurt their chances of signing him.

Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts bucked that trend yesterday by announcing that his team recently hosted Ohtani for a meeting at Dodger Stadium and stating the obvious: that Ohtani is the Dodgers’ top priority. There’s been plenty of hand-wringing among Dodger faithful that Roberts’ comments harmed the team’s chances, though Morosi said in an appearance on MLB Network this morning that he does not see “in any way” that Roberts’ acknowledgment of what everyone already knew would serve as a deterrent to getting a deal done. It’d indeed be rather surprising if Ohtani’s decision on where he’ll play the next 10 to 13 seasons at a likely price tag north of $500MM were substantially impacted by a team’s manager simply acknowledging interest that has been anticipated for more than a year.

As it stands, the Dodgers are definitively known to have met with Ohtani. Reports this week indicated that the Blue Jays and Giants were also likely to have held sitdowns with the two-way star — the Jays at their spring complex in Dunedin, Fla. and the Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco. The incumbent Angels are also believed to be in the mix still. Last night, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer vehemently refuted reports that his own club’s optimism of landing Ohtani had “significantly waned.” It’s not known when or whether the Cubs hosted a meeting of their own with Ohtani, but Hoyer’s comments keep the door open for them as well.

Whether there are any darkhorse clubs who’ve managed to keep their involvement entirely off the radar is unclear, though that possibility can’t be discounted, given the nature of Ohtani’s free agency and the sheer demand an unprecedented talent like this has created. The Red Sox, Mets and Rangers were all involved early on in the process, but they’ve since appeared to shift their attention elsewhere after falling behind in the bidding.

If Ohtani indeed makes his decision in the next 96 hours or so (give or take), that would in all likelihood set the stage for the proverbial offseason floodgates to open. None of the reported finalists has been willing to make a significant move until learning whether they’ll be the team to ultimately reel in Ohtani. As such, that’s directly impacted the market for names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto (presumably a target of all finalists in the Ohtani bidding), top free agent bats like Cody Bellinger (a potential Giants, Jays or Angels target if Ohtani goes elsewhere) and even trade candidates like Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber, whose teams surely want to gauge interest from the runners-up in the Ohtani bidding.

Pirates Acquire Marco Gonzales

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The Pirates announced the acquisition of left-hander Marco Gonzales and cash considerations from the Braves. Atlanta receives a player to be named later or cash in return. The move comes just two days after Atlanta landed Gonzales as part of a five-player trade with the Mariners, yet it was already expected that Gonzales would be quickly flipped to another team.

Pittsburgh will presumably now be Gonzales’ final landing spot of the offseason, as the southpaw brings some experience to a Pirates team sorely in need of rotation help.  Beyond ace Mitch Keller, the Bucs’ projected starting staff is thin on MLB service time and lacking in quality results at the big league level.  Roansy Contreras, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, and Quinn Priester were lined up as the next four in the rotation, as Johan Oviedo will miss all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows won’t be options until closer to midseason due to TJ procedures of their own from last April.  2023 first overall draft pick Paul Skenes is expected to be on a fast track to the big leagues as early as next season, yet with only 6 2/3 pro innings on his resume, it is too early to assume Skenes is a lock for his MLB debut in 2024.

This isn’t to say that Gonzales (who turns 32 in February) is necessarily a clear-cut upgrade for the Buccos, as he is trying to bounce back from essentially a lost season.  Gonzales’ 2023 campaign was cut short by a forearm strain in May, and he had struggled to a 5.22 ERA over 50 innings and 10 starts for Seattle before going on the injured list.  While the forearm problem was a painful new wrinkle to the proceedings, the overall dip in form wasn’t a total surprise, given how Gonzales has been outperforming his peripheral numbers for years.

Gonzales posted a 3.94 ERA over 765 2/3 innings for the Mariners from 2018-22, with a more unflattering 4.64 SIERA reflecting his lack of strikeouts.  Though Gonzales isn’t a hard thrower and he doesn’t miss many bats, he still achieved success with a recipe of solid control and limiting hard contact.  Despite the lack of velocity, Gonzales’ four-seamer was quietly one of the more effective pitches in baseball before 2022, when it suddenly dropped into being a below-average offering.

If Gonzales can stay healthy and get back to his pre-2023 results, that alone represents a nice boost for the Pirates’ staff.  It might help that the lefty is leaving Seattle for another pretty pitcher-friendly locale in PNC Park, as home runs also became an increasing problem for Gonzales in 2021-22.

2024 is the last guaranteed season of the four-year, $30MM extension that Gonzales signed with the Mariners prior to the 2020 campaign, and the deal also contains a $15MM club option for 2025 with no buyout.  Since Gonzales received a $250K assignment bonus for being traded from the Mariners, the $4.5MM Seattle included in the trade package to Atlanta left $7.75MM remaining in owed salary to the left-hander.  The Braves have eaten part of that portion to facilitate this next deal with Pittsburgh, only increasing Gonzales’ affordable nature — no small matter for a Pirates team that is always looking to keep its spending in check.

Though the Bucs are intending to raise their modest payroll by some extent, obtaining Gonzales for less than $7.75MM allows the club to fill one rotation hole without taking up much of whatever spending capacity GM Ben Cherington has been allotted this winter.  Since Jack Flaherty is another name on the Pirates’ radar, it could be that Pittsburgh will address its rotation with veterans on short-term deals, hoping that at least one reclamation project like Gonzales or Flaherty can bounce back to become solid starter.

From Atlanta’s perspective, taking on the contracts of Gonzales and Evan White was the price necessary to obtain Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners.  White’s injury history makes him more or less immovable outside of a total salary dump, yet Gonzales’ history as a decently effective and durable starter prior to 2022 made him a better candidate to be flipped, considering the league-wide need for pitching depth.  The Braves are known to be looking for higher-tier pitching upgrades themselves, after missing out on Aaron Nola earlier in the offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Pirates were acquiring Gonzales and cash for a player to be named later.

Yankees Acquire Alex Verdugo

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The Yankees and Red Sox have lined up on a rare major trade. The teams announced a deal sending outfielder Alex Verdugo to the Bronx for reliever Greg Weissert and minor league pitchers Richard Fitts and Nicholas Judice.

Verdugo, who turns 28 in May, has spent the past four seasons in Boston. The Sox acquired him from the Dodgers as the key piece of the Mookie Betts trade return. The left-handed hitting outfielder never quite lived up to that lofty billing. Verdugo has settled in as a solid regular without emerging as an impact player on either side of the ball.

Over his time with the Red Sox, Verdugo hit .281/.338/.424 in a little more than 2000 plate appearances. His strongest season was the shortened 2020 campaign. After posting a .308/.367/.478 slash, he has hit at a league average level for three years running. Verdugo owns a .277/.334/.417 mark since the start of 2021. This past season’s .264/.324/.421 line over 602 plate appearances fit that recent body of work.

Verdugo doesn’t have prototypical home run power for a corner outfielder. He has hit between 11 and 13 longballs in each of the last three years. Verdugo has topped 30 doubles in each season, however. He has always had excellent bat-to-ball skills and generally shows an all-fields approach. Aside from a 15-game debut showing in 2017, he has hit .260 or better in every year of his big league career.

Bringing in a hit-over-power lefty bat seems a deliberate effort by the New York front office to add balance to the lineup. The Yankees have skewed right-handed and leaned heavily on power hitters in recent years. They’ve found themselves generally lacking in consistent offensive production beyond Aaron Judge and, to a lesser extent, Gleyber Torres.

Verdugo isn’t an impact lineup presence, but he checks a box which general manager Brian Cashman had identified as a priority. Cashman expressed a desire for two outfielders to join Judge, preferably ones who hit from the left side. Top center field prospect Jasson Domínguez will be out into the middle of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, while left field has been a significant problem for the past couple years. 22-year-old Everson Pereira might be a longer-term solution there but limped to a .151/.233/.194 line in his first month as a big leaguer.

The desire for multiple outfield additions still leaves the Yankees very much in play for bigger stars. New York has been tied to Juan Soto in trade rumors and Cody Bellinger on the free agent market. Various reporters (including Andy Martino of SNY) unsurprisingly relay that the Yankees are still involved on Soto. Talks between the Yankees and Padres reportedly slowed over the weekend after San Diego demanded a pitching-heavy return built around Michael King and prospect Drew Thorpe.

Verdugo won’t take them out of that mix (or presumably impact a run at Bellinger if they can’t line up on a Soto deal). However, it could require the Yankees to lean on Judge in center field for a season if they were to acquire Soto. Verdugo hasn’t played center field since 2021. He has generally received solid marks for his glove in right field. Verdugo has one of the game’s better arms, although his speed and overall range are closer to average.

The outfield alignment is to be determined based on future moves. Verdugo steps in a short-term acquisition who’ll solidify one position while buying time for Domínguez to rehab and Pereira to see more action in Triple-A. The veteran outfielder is a year away from free agency. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts him for a $9.2MM salary in his final season of arbitration.

That pushes the Yankees’ projected spending to roughly $246MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. Their luxury tax number sits right at the $257MM line that marks the second tier of penalization. Since they’re paying the CBT for what’d be a third consecutive season, the Yankees are taxed at a 50% rate on spending between $237MM and $257MM. That’ll push their overall tab on Verdugo into the $14MM range, while they’re sure to continue adding to the roster (with accompanying higher penalties beyond the $257MM mark).

On the other side of the equation, Boston offloads Verdugo’s salary projection. They’re moving on from a player who, while reasonably effective, had a somewhat disappointing overall run at Fenway Park. In addition to the leveling off in his performance, Verdugo occasionally came under fire with the organization for perceived effort questions.

Beyond that, it’s not uncommon for an incoming baseball operations leader to reshape a roster. This is the first significant trade of Craig Breslow’s tenure as chief baseball officer. It leaves a vacancy in right field, where the Sox seem likely to look to free agency or the trade market. Boston has left-handed hitting Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida in the outfield mix, so the pursuit of a righty bat might make the most sense.

They’ll also add controllable pitching help, with Weissert standing as the most immediate upgrade. The 28-year-old righty has pitched at the MLB level in each of the past two seasons. Weissert has worked 31 1/3 innings, allowing a 4.60 ERA. His underlying numbers are more intriguing. The Fordham product has averaged around 94 MPH on his sinker and four-seam fastball. He has struck out a solid 24.4% of batters faced while keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.3% clip.

Weissert also had an excellent year in Triple-A in 2023. Over 40 1/3 frames, he pitched to a 2.90 ERA while punching out more than 34% of batters faced. Control has been an issue throughout his career, but Weissert has consistently shown the ability to miss bats in the minors. He still has two option years remaining and won’t reach arbitration for three seasons, making him an affordable and flexible bullpen piece.

Fitts, who turns 24 in a few weeks, is the more intriguing of the minor leaguers involved. An Auburn product, he was drafted in the sixth round in 2021. The 6’3″ righty had an impressive year at Double-A Somerset, working to a 3.48 ERA across 152 2/3 innings. He punched out nearly 26% of batters faced against a tidy 6.8% walk percentage. Prospect evaluators praise Fitts’s slider and overall command, projecting him as a potential back-end starter. Boston doesn’t need to add him to the 40-man roster until next offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft, but it’s possible he pitches his way into the MLB rotation mix at some point during the summer.

Judice was an eighth-round pick this year out of UL-Monroe. The 6’8″ hurler had posted a 3.74 ERA over 53 innings in his draft year. BA’s draft report praised his potential plus slider and mid-90s velocity. Judice projects as a reliever and is a low minors development flier.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the trade terms. Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Support Our Winter Meetings Coverage With An Ad-Free Subscription

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The 2024 MLB Winter Meetings are upon us!  Team executives and agents are ready to make some deals in Nashville.  The top storyline this year is two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, only the biggest free agent in MLB history.  On top of that we’ve got a pair of 25-year-old stars on the market: ace righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been posted by Japan’s Orix Buffaloes, and Padres left fielder Juan Soto could be traded.

There are many other free agents and trade candidates, of course, and MLBTR will have round-the-clock coverage of the firehose of hot stove news coming out of Nashville.  That includes our overnight news coverage, as you may have seen.  We’ve been doing this for 18 years and we’re excited as ever for this offseason!

If you’re one of the millions of people hitting F5 constantly on this website this week, please consider purchasing an ad-free subscription for $29.89 per year.  We call this service Trade Rumors Front Office, and we pack a ton of value into it.  You get to enjoy the website and app with no ads, you gain access to our industry-approved MLB Contract Tracker, and we’re sending out exclusive articles and chats from Steve Adams and Anthony Franco every week.  Your subscription also supports our independent company in a time of declining ad rates.  Check out Trade Rumors Front Office today!

White Sox, Erick Fedde Agree To Two-Year Contract

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The White Sox are in agreement with right-hander Erick Fedde on a two-year, $15MM contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). The deal is pending a physical. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported last night that Fedde, a client of the Boras Corporation, was nearing a two-year pact and named the White Sox and Mets as finalists.

Fedde returns to the majors after one season in South Korea. He’d signed a one-year, $1MM pact with the KBO’s NC Dinos last December. A few weeks earlier, Fedde had been non-tendered by the Nationals, with whom he’d spent his entire pro career up to that point. Within 12 months, he has dramatically raised his profile.

The 30-year-old righty turned in an excellent season for the Dinos. He pitched to a 2.00 ERA in 180 1/3 innings covering 30 starts. He struck out an excellent 29.5% of batters faced while walking under 5% of opposing hitters. As a result of that dominant showing, he was named the KBO’s Most Valuable Player.

Before his move to Korea, Fedde had a fairly nondescript run in Washington. The 6’4″ hurler was a first round draft choice in 2014. He received some Top 100 prospect attention as a potentially quick-moving college starter. Fedde got to the majors midway through the 2017 season but didn’t solidify himself in the rotation for a few years. He spent time on the injured list with shoulder inflammation during the 2018 campaign and bounced between the nation’s capital and Triple-A in ’19.

Fedde carved out a spot in the Nats rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. He’d hold that role for the next three seasons, combining to log 310 2/3 innings over 67 appearances. The results weren’t great, as he posted a 5.42 ERA with a middling 18.1% strikeout rate. Rather than meet a projected $3.6MM arbitration salary last offseason, Washington moved on.

While surely a tough pill to swallow at the time, Fedde has come out ahead following the non-tender. This past August, he told the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty that he’d developed more horizontal action on his slider and tweaked the grip on his changeup as part of an overhauled approach in the pitching lab.

Between the repertoire adjustments and the dominance in a hitter-friendly KBO, Fedde secured the largest guarantee for a former affiliated pitcher returning from Korea. Each of Josh Lindblom, Merrill Kelly and Chris Flexen landed multi-year guarantees. Fedde is the first to cross the $10MM threshold, doing so rather handily.

The $7.5MM average annual value is a strong deal for the righty, although it could still turn out to be solid value for the Sox if Fedde can turn in league average results in the majors. Chicago is in desperate need of starting pitching. Dylan Cease had been the only pitcher on the roster who was clearly assured of a rotation spot and he’s widely expected to be traded. Fedde is almost certain to get a spot in the starting five, while Michael Kopech and trade pickup Michael Soroka have a decent chance at rotation roles. Jared Shuster, Jesse Scholtens and Touki Toussaint are also in the mix.

That’s still a lackluster group, particularly if the Sox wind up moving Cease. First-year general manager Chris Getz and his front office are likely to continue searching for starting pitching. The specific breakdown of Fedde’s contract has yet to be reported. If it’s distributed evenly, a $7.5MM salary would bring the Sox’s projected payroll (courtesy of Roster Resource) around $144MM. Getz has already suggested they’re not planning to approach their franchise-record spending mark, which topped $193MM, but they’re still more than $35MM shy of this year’s approximate $181MM Opening Day figure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Jed Hoyer Denies Cubs Are Out On Shohei Ohtani

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Earlier today, a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today said that the Cubs were falling out of the bidding for Shohei Ohtani, saying that their “optimism of landing Ohtani has now significantly waned.” However, the club’s president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer denied that framing at the Winter Meetings. “I don’t know where that came from,” Hoyer said to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. “There’s no nothing to report whatsoever.”

The Ohtani sweepstakes have been notably unusual since he and his camp reportedly prefer a shroud of secrecy over the proceedings. Reporting appears to indicate that the field is down to five clubs: The Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs and Giants. Ohtani is “believed” to have met with the Jays recently and there were “indications” of a meeting with the Giants prior to that. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts decided not to play the cloak-and-dagger games, straight up admitting that his club recently met with Ohtani.

Overall, information has been tougher to come by than a typical free agency, but Hoyer felt compelled to address today’s reporting. He said they have not been given a “status check” from Ohtani’s reps but wouldn’t discuss the club’s interest beyond that. Earlier today, manager Craig Counsell was asked about having meetings with Ohtani and replied “I have not,” per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. When asked if the front office had met with Ohtani, he repeated his “I have not” response.

The Cubs currently have a payroll of $178MM, per Roster Resource. That’s $25MM shy of their franchise high payroll of $203MM, per the figures at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Ohtani is expected to require a contract with an average annual value somewhere in the $40-50MM range, but it stands to reason the Cubs would probably have some willingness to go beyond previous spending levels for such a uniquely talented player as Ohtani. Beyond his on-field talents, he is a big international star who should be able to provide his next club with extra revenue via increased ratings, merchandise sales and ticket sales.

One club that seems to be in the opposite position is Atlanta. It was reported recently by Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the club was “actively involved” in the Ohtani bidding. But president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos seemed to contradict that in speaking to the media today. When asked about the club’s interest in Ohtani, he said the only position player they’ve pursued this offseason is Jarred Kelenic, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. They acquired Kelenic earlier this week and Anthopoulos says they are now happy with the lineup and group of position players.

Ohtani would upgrade any team in the world but it’s unclear where his priorities lie. He could go for the largest guarantee or a contract with multiple opt-outs, or perhaps something different like geography or a club’s ability to win, or perhaps a combination of those factors. Given the secrecy around the meetings, it’s also unclear how each club is pitching Ohtani or what kind of offers they are discussing.

Guardians Win Draft Lottery

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The second ever MLB draft lottery was conducted at the Winter Meetings this afternoon. The Guardians were surprisingly awarded the first overall pick, followed by the Reds and Rockies. Cleveland entered the event with just a 2% chance of securing the highest selection.

Cincinnati also surprisingly drew near the top of the league. The Reds’ chances of landing the first pick were less than 1%. While they didn’t quite get to #1, they jump up to second despite having the 14th-worst record this year.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Guardians
  2. Reds
  3. Rockies
  4. Athletics
  5. White Sox
  6. Royals
  7. Cardinals
  8. Angels
  9. Pirates
  10. Nationals
  11. Tigers
  12. Red Sox
  13. Giants
  14. Cubs
  15. Mariners
  16. Marlins
  17. Brewers
  18. Rays
  19. Mets
  20. Blue Jays
  21. Twins
  22. Orioles
  23. Dodgers
  24. Padres
  25. Yankees
  26. Braves
  27. Phillies
  28. Astros
  29. Diamondbacks
  30. Rangers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had identical chances of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. That ruled out the Nationals this year, as they selected 2nd overall a season ago. (As an interesting aside, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America relays that a ball for Washington was actually chosen on the initial drawing for the first pick. As a result of the CBA provision capping them from picking higher than 10th, that result was voided. Cleveland’s winning ball was drawn on the second trial.)

This year, the A’s, Royals and Rockies had the best chance of securing the #1 overall selection. Each had an 18.3% probability for the pick. The White Sox (14.7%) and Cardinals (8.3%) had the fourth and fifth highest odds, respectively.

Also of note: none of the Mets, Yankees or Padres were drawn into the top six. Those teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier. As a result, their highest choices were dropped by 10 spots apiece. Had any of them received a lottery pick, their second-highest pick would have been moved back instead.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

While the 2023 draft was extremely highly regarded at the top — particularly with the first five selections — the ’24 class isn’t as lauded. Much can change with the upcoming amateur baseball season in the spring, of course, but early indications are that having a top selection may not be quite as impactful as it would be in a typical season (and certainly not last summer). Baseball America recently updated its Top 100 draft prospects.

Roberts: Dodgers Met With Shohei Ohtani Recently

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After droves of secrecy and anonymous reporting about secret meetings between Shohei Ohtani and various suitors, Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts refreshingly came right out and told reporters that his club recently hosted Ohtani for a visit at Dodgers Stadium (link via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Roberts added that Ohtani is “clearly our top priority.” Asked why he was so direct when other clubs have gone to great measures to conceal their efforts to negotiate with Ohtani, Roberts replied (via MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince): “I don’t feel like lying is something I do. I was asked a question. … It’s going to come out at some point.”

The Dodgers have long been viewed as the likeliest team to sign Ohtani. That’s due to myriad factors, ranging from Ohtani’s prior preference for a West Coast club (during his original foray into MLB free agency) and the Dodgers’ virtually limitless payroll capabilities, among others. The L.A. front office declined to make designated hitter J.D. Martinez a qualifying offer on the heels of a resurgent 33-homer season, reportedly in large part to keep the DH spot in the lineup clear for a potential run at Ohtani.

Ohtani has drawn interest from a wide array of teams, as one would expect from the most prominent two-way star the sport has ever seen. Over the past few days, however, several clubs have appeared to believe their chances to land Ohtani have shrunk. The Red Sox, Mets and Rangers are said to have shifted their focus to other players, while just a couple hours ago it was reported that the Cubs’ optimism in their own pursuit has “significantly waned.”

The Dodgers currently project for a $157MM payroll, per Roster Resource, with just shy of $175MM of luxury tax obligations on the books. That leaves ample room to sign Ohtani without even reaching the $237MM tax threshold, although subsequent additions following a theoretical Ohtani deal could still put the Dodgers firmly into tax territory. That hasn’t been a concern for them in the past, however; the Dodgers have incurred luxury penalties each year since 2019.

Ohtani is believed to have had meetings with the Blue Jays and the Giants in recent days as well. Los Angeles, Toronto, San Francisco and the incumbent Angels are the four prominent names reported to remain in the bidding, although given the cloak-and-dagger nature of Ohtani’s free agency, it’s certainly possible there are other clubs still lurking in the mix to sign him.

Report: Cubs’ Optimism On Landing Ohtani “Has Waned”

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Shohei Ohtani’s camp at CAA has done a good job keeping his free agency a relatively silent endeavor, but there have been occasional indicators that his market is beginning to narrow. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported last week that the Red Sox, Rangers and Mets had shifted their focus to players other than Ohtani, not believing themselves to be strong contenders to land him. Today, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Cubs are in a similar position. Chicago’s “optimism of landing Ohtani has now significantly waned,” per Nightengale, citing a high-ranking team executive.

Known suitors for Ohtani generally include the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Angels and Giants. (Others have surely expressed interest throughout the offseason.) If the Cubs are indeed pessimistic and/or turning their attention elsewhere, that makes four teams in the past four days that are now said to be increasingly doubtful about their chances of landing the two-time AL MVP. Given the secretive nature of Ohtani’s market, it’s always possible there are additional, surprise suitors lurking, but to this point there’s little to no indication of the ever-popular “mystery team” joining the fray.

As a major market club with long-term needs in the rotation and an immediate gap at designated hitter, the Cubs made plenty of sense as an Ohtani suitor. Chicago’s projected $178MM payroll is a ways of from the franchise-record $203MM Opening Day mark, and for a player like Ohtani it stands to reason that most clubs would be comfortable stretching beyond their previously established comfort levels. Ohtani could’ve slotted into the 2025 rotation alongside Justin Steele and would’ve added a thunderous left-handed bat to a lineup that could well lose resurgent Cody Bellinger, who is also a free agent.

Over the past few days, reports have emerged of in-person meetings between Ohtani’s camp and a few clubs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported yesterday that the Blue Jays are “believed” to have met with Ohtani at their spring complex on Monday, when GM Ross Atkins was noticeably absent from the site of the Winter Meetings in Nashville and conducted his media availability via Zoom. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle similarly reported that there were “indications” of a weekend meeting between the Giants and Ohtani at Oracle Park in San Francisco.

Suffice it to say, most teams have been quite wary of tipping their hand and perhaps harming their chances of hammering out a deal with Ohtani, who clearly wants a free-agent experience that does not play out in the public eye. While there was originally hope that Ohtani might make a decision at this week’s Winter Meetings, over the past 48 hours each of Nightengale, Jon Heyman of the New York Post and others have begun to suggest that Ohtani could continue conducting meetings with teams after this week’s event.

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