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Clayton Kershaw Will Not Require Surgery, Will Not Pitch This Postseason

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OCTOBER 8: Kershaw told reporters he had a platelet-rich plasma injection in his ailing elbow yesterday (via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). That officially brings to an end any chance of his pitching this postseason, but Kershaw said he expects to be ready for Spring Training in 2022.

OCTOBER 5: Clayton Kershaw left his most recent regular season start on account of recurring forearm discomfort. The Dodgers star did not suffer any UCL damage and will not require surgery, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times). Nevertheless, the three-time Cy Young award winner is not expected to return this postseason.

The news comes as something of a mixed bag. On the one hand, it certainly seemed ominous when Kershaw left his final start of the year with forearm discomfort, not long after returning from a two-plus month absence due to the same issue. It’s certainly a relief that in spite of that recurring problem, Kershaw won’t need to go under the knife.

That said, he’ll no doubt be disappointed he’s not able to return to help the Dodgers’ efforts to repeat as World Series winners. It’s possible Kershaw wouldn’t have pitched in the postseason even were he healthy. Max Scherzer was likely to get the ball in tomorrow evening’s Wild Card game anyhow, and the Dodgers’ title defense could end with that lone contest. But a lengthier playoff run would surely have seen a healthy Kershaw logging some important innings, and that’ll no longer be the case.

It’s also particularly unfortunate timing for Kershaw personally. The 33-year-old is slated to hit the open market this winter. When healthy, Kershaw has again been excellent. Over 121 2/3 innings, the former MVP worked to a 3.55 ERA while striking out a strong 29.5% of batters faced and issuing walks at just a 4.3% clip. Kershaw’s velocity has steadily ticked downwards in recent seasons, but he’s nevertheless been among the game’s most effective pitchers year in and year out. He was trending towards being one of the top starters available in free agency this offseason, but his recent health woes will throw a wrench in that evaluation for teams.

The Dodgers also provided an update on Max Muncy, who injured his elbow in a collision at first base during Sunday’s regular season finale. Muncy told reporters (including Juan Toribio of MLB.com) he suffered a dislocated elbow and some structural damage. Fortunately, he won’t require surgical repair. Roberts didn’t rule out the possibility of Muncy returning at some point this postseason (Toribio link).

Rockies Extend Antonio Senzatela

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October 6: According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Senzatela can increase his annual salary by meeting thresholds of innings pitched. By reaching 200 innings in 2022, he will add $1MM to his salary in each season from 2024 to 2027, and the same applies for 2023. That means Senzatela has the potential to add $8MM to his payout.

October 5: The Rockies announced this afternoon they’ve agreed to a five-year contract extension with right-hander Antonio Senzatela. He’ll be guaranteed $50.5MM, and the deal also contains a club option for the 2027 season. Senzatela, a client of Republik Sports, was headed into his second trip through the arbitration process and had previously been under club control through the 2023 season.

Antonio Senzatela |Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a rather surprising first move for newly minted general manager Bill Schmidt, who shed the “interim” tag from his title over the weekend. Senzatela has, at times, looked the part of a durable innings eater with a grounder-heavy approach, but he also possesses one of Major League Baseball’s lowest strikeout rates and was only in line for a modest raise on this season’s $3MM salary in arbitration. He’ll now earn $7.25MM in both 2022 and 2023 before taking home $12MM annually from 2024-26. The 2027 option is valued at $14MM.

Senzatela, 26, has been a durable rotation cog for Colorado over the past few seasons, although it’s worth noting that as recently as 2019, he was optioned to Triple-A and finished the season with an ERA just shy of 7.00. The right-hander was hammered for a 10.34 ERA from July through September that season but has enjoyed much more success since returning.

In 40 starts and 230 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, he’s worked to a combined 4.11 earned run average — albeit with a 15% strikeout rate that ranks 188th of the 198 starting pitchers to have thrown at least 100 innings in that time. Senzatela ranks on the opposite end of the pendulum with the 15th-best walk rate in that time (5.1%) and the 22nd-ranked ground-ball percentage (51.1%).

Clearly, the Rockies are betting that he’ll be able to continue to suppress runs at a roughly average rate, leaning heavily on his blend of strong control and knack for inducing grounders. The challenge for Senzatela will lie partly in his ability to reduce the rate at which he allows hard contact. Of the 98 qualified pitchers in Major League Baseball this season, Senzatela’s 90.6 mph average opponents’ exit velocity was sixth-highest. That’s driven in part by a propensity to allow hard contact on the ground; his exit velocity on ground-balls is fourth-highest in MLB, whereas on balls in the air it’s a slightly less-alarming 27th.

Historically speaking, there’s ample precedent for pitchers in Senzatela’s service bracket — more than four years, less than five — signing a deal in this range. Kyle Hendricks’ 2019 extension with the Cubs, a five-year deal worth a guaranteed $55.5MM, is the most recent and closest parallel.

Notably, Hendricks also largely goes against today’s archetypical strikeout machine. He relies more on weak contact and pinpoint command to offset one of the game’s slowest fastballs, however, whereas Senzatela’s power sinker hovers in the 95 mph range but simply doesn’t miss many bats.

While both pitchers are grounder-heavy command artists, Hendricks had a vastly superior track record that included a prior third-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. He’d already agreed to a $7.405MM salary for the forthcoming 2019 season, and Senzatela would’ve been hard-pressed to earn a second-time arbitration salary in that range. If Hendricks was indeed cited as a point of comparison in negotiations, it’s a strong deal for Senzatela’s camp to have come close to that same guarantee with a demonstrably worse statistical platform.

That said, while the price point may be a bit of a surprise, the Rockies surely place extra value on pitchers who’ve shown the ability — and the desire or willingness — to pitch effectively at Coors Field. Persuading any free-agent starting pitcher to sign on for multiple years pitching at altitude is a difficult endeavor. Beyond that, the Rockies have a fairly weak farm system, so trading for a controllable pitcher is easier said than done. Senzatela has had his share of success in recent seasons and, if he can continue on the same trajectory he showed from 2020-21, the deal will look reasonable enough.

From a payroll vantage point, the Rox can certainly afford the deal as structured. Colorado had just under $47MM in guaranteed salary on the 2022 books, and Senzatela’s salary bumps them to a bit more than $54MM. Charlie Blackmon will tack on another $21MM when he exercises a player option for the 2022 campaign, but even that subsequent $75-76MM is nowhere near the franchise-record $145MM payroll. Colorado is reported to be in agreement on an extension with first baseman C.J. Cron as well, but that shouldn’t drive up the bottom-line payroll in 2022 by too much.

Moreover, by the time Senzatela’s salary jumps to the $12MM range, the Blackmon contract will be off the books. The Rockies didn’t have a single guaranteed salary on the 2024 payroll prior to this long-term deal, though a $16MM club option on top pitcher German Marquez appears likely to be exercised, barring a significant injury or decline. An annual $12MM salary for an innings eater of Senzatela’s nature isn’t an egregious price to pay, although the downside with him is greater than with other arms who’ve signed in this price range — and it’s a bit surprising to see that price tag agreed upon so far in advance.

At the end of the day, the Senzatela extension serves as another reminder that the Rockies don’t view themselves nearly as far from contending as their 74-win season and -57 run differential would suggest. Colorado bucked conventional wisdom at the deadline when opting to hang onto Trevor Story, Jon Gray, Daniel Bard, Cron and other trade candidates, ultimately only moving Mychal Givens despite being buried in the division and lacking long-term control of those players.

Owner Dick Monfort has repeatedly stated in the past that he believes the current Rockies core is capable of contending, although that core will likely be turning over at least to an extent with the expected departure of Story. Competing in a division with the two best teams of 2021, plus a flawed-but-talented Padres squad in win-now mode would appear a daunting task for most teams, but the Rockies operate on an island and, in many ways, prefer their own unorthodox methodologies to more popular industry trends. The group of Marquez, Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Gray (if he’s re-signed) and Austin Gomber certainly could form the nucleus of a competitive pitching staff, but the Rox are thin on depth behind that quintet and will need another year of uncanny health in the rotation just to repeat their 2021 output. Some additional roster augmentation will be needed this offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the agreement and the deal’s terms.

Padres Fire Jayce Tingler

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After days of rumors, the Padres have officially parted ways with manager Jayce Tingler.  The former skipper has been offered the chance to stay with the organization in another role.

“Jayce accomplished a great deal in his two seasons with the Padres, leading our team through an unprecedented pandemic and into the postseason for the first time in 15 years,” president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said.  “I have tremendous respect for him as a coach, colleague and friend.  After much thought and consideration over the last several weeks, we felt change was necessary at this time to ultimately reach our championship potential in San Diego.”

Reports surfaced over the weekend that Tingler was going to be replaced, and while the Padres announced in response that “no decision has been made on Jayce’s employment status at this time,” the writing seemed to be on the wall given the rather stunning nature of the team’s collapse.

At the end of June, the Padres were 49-33 for the season and winners of 11 of their last 12 games.  The question at the time seemed to be which of the three NL West powers (the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants) would capture the division title and which two would be destined for a showdown in the wild card game.  Instead, the Padres cratered to a 30-50 mark over their final 80 games, including a nosedive that saw the club win only seven of their final 28 contests.

The result was a 79-83 record and the Padres’ 10th losing record in 11 seasons — a bitter pill to swallow for a club coming off an NLDS appearance in 2020 and with the highest of expectations.  Despite the star-studded nature of the Padres roster, several of the big names were undone either by injury or a lack of performance, with the starting rotation being particularly hampered by injuries down the stretch.

It was clear the late-season struggle was creating friction within the team, as there were reports of clubhouse discord at Tingler’s decision-making and his ties to Preller.  The Padres’ brutal record in September and October might have well been all the evidence necessary for Preller and ownership to decide that Tingler had lost the team, and now a new manager will be needed to get the Padres on track.

Tingler finishes with a 116-106 record in his two years as San Diego’s manager, still a winning mark thanks to his success in 2020, leading the Friars to the playoffs for the first time since 2006.  The Padres’ 37-23 record was the third-best record of any team during the shortened season, and San Diego’s victory over the Cardinals in the wild card series was their first postseason triumph since the 1998 NLCS.

While a manager is usually the first to go when a team doesn’t succeed, there were enough issues with the 2021 Padres that Tingler was hardly the only one at fault.  The Padres’ next manager will be the third Preller has hired to run the club in his seven-plus years in charge of the front office, and though Preller recently signed a contract extension that runs through the 2026 season, there will certainly a lot of extra pressure on the PBO to finally turn the Padres into a consistent winner.

On the more optimistic side, a case can easily be made that the San Diego job is a prime opportunity for any manager.  There is plenty of talent on the roster, and the Padres could certainly find themselves back in contention with better health alone in 2022.  Both Tingler and previous skipper Andy Green were first-time managers, so it will be interesting to see if Preller again looks for a younger voice in the dugout or if he looks to hire a manager with past experience.

No Traction Between Mets, Theo Epstein On Front Office Position

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As expected, Mets owner Steve Cohen was in contract with Theo Epstein about the team’s president of baseball operations opening, but Epstein won’t be taking over the Mets’ front office.  According to SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link), Cohen and Epstein “had a good conversation and both agreed that this was not the right opportunity.”

Epstein has been linked to the Mets on the rumor mill essentially since the moment he stepped down as the Cubs president of baseball ops last November, though Epstein said that he intended to take some time off before getting back into team management.  He instead took a consultant job with the Commissioner’s Office, and it appears as though Epstein will remain in that role for the foreseeable future.  Barring a surprise move in the coming days, the Mets look to be the only team in search of a new front office boss this offseason.

While it made natural sense for Cohen to look into Epstein’s availability, reports suggested that Epstein was seen as something of a longshot of a hire.  Beyond just running a front office, there have been suggestions that Epstein has his eyes on being at least a minority owner of his next team, if his next baseball job is even with a team at all — there have even been rumors that Epstein might look to succeed Rob Manfred as the next commissioner.

With Epstein out of the running, speculation will continue about two other major names reportedly on the Mets’ list, as Cohen is expected to request permission to speak with Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns and A’s executive VP Billy Beane.  Of the two, the “Mets still may have a legit shot at Beane,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, though Beane himself downplayed the speculation.

“I wouldn’t even know that, honestly,” Beane told Shayna Rubin of The San Jose Mercury News and other reporters about the Mets’ plans to request an interview.  “Normally the process is they would call the owner which has happened in the past.  But to worry about this is to lend credibility to it.  It’s all just press reports.”  Of note, Beane also owns a small ownership stake in the Athletics, so that could be another hurdle to a hiring if Beane did have interest in leaving Oakland or if A’s ownership was willing to part ways.

Rockies Extend C.J. Cron

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The Rockies are keeping their first baseman in the fold, announcing an agreement with C.J. Cron on a two-year contract extension. The deal guarantees the Moye Sports Associates client a total of $14.5MM.

It’s the second extension of the day for the Rox, who also just locked up righty Antonio Senzatela on a five-year contract. Unlike Senzatela, who was already under team control for two more seasons via arbitration, Cron was slated to become a free agent after the World Series. The two sides had publicly expressed interest in working out a reunion, however, and it seems they’ll do so before Cron ever hits the open market and hears from other clubs.

The extension will bring Cron some stability after pinballing around the league in recent seasons. The former Angels first-rounder was traded to the Rays in the 2017-18 offseason, claimed off waivers by the Twins in the 2018-19 offseason, signed by the Tigers (after being non-tendered by Minnesota) in the 2019-20 offseason, and signed a minor league with Colorado this past offseason.

That minor league pact proved to be an overwhelming bargain for the Rox, as Cron rebounded from last year’s season-ending knee surgery and raked at a .281/.375/.530 clip with 28 home runs — the second-highest total of his career. That said, there are some red flags to consider as well.

Beyond the fact that Cron will turn 32 in January, he displayed some eye-opening splits. The overwhelming amount of Cron’s damage came at Coors Field, where he batted .326/.412/.661 as opposed to .235/.337/.397 on the road. He was also, as is typically the case, much more productive against left-handed pitching (.311/.393/.583) than against right-handed opponents (.269/.368/.503). The Rockies clearly weren’t concerned by the splits, however, and for a fairly modest price tag of $7.25MM per season, that’s a defensible stance. Cron’s numbers against right-handed opponents, after all, were still strong. And while the home/road splits are glaring, he still managed an above-average on-base percentage on the road while maintaining a respectable isolated power mark.

That increased walk rate, it should be noted, is perhaps the biggest driving factor of this deal. Prior to the 2020 season, Cron had walked in just 5.5% of his career plate appearances. He walked nine times in just 52 plate appearances with Detroit before sustaining a season-ending knee injury, however, and the newfound patience largely carried over into the 2021 season. This year’s 11% walk rate effectively doubled his career mark and served to dramatically boost Cron’s offensive floor in the process. So long as the newfound plate discipline is here to stay, Cron ought to be a convincingly above-average bat over the next two seasons, even if he’s more of an average hitter on the road and a prodigious slugger at home.

Cron, like Senzatela, will be paid $7.25MM in each of the next two seasons. It’s a reasonable price to pay for a solid power bat who rates as an average or better defender at his position. From a bigger-picture standpoint, the Rockies now have about $61MM on next year’s payroll — a figure that’ll jump to about $82MM, assuming Charlie Blackmon exercises a $21MM player option. That’ll leave a pronounced gap between the currently projected payroll and the franchise-record $145MM mark, giving the Rockies some leeway to add to the roster under newly minted general manager Bill Schmidt.

Given the manner in which the open market has increasingly devalued free agents on the wrong side of 30, specifically first-base-only sluggers — there’s a reason Cron was effectively non-tendered twice, after all — one could argue that the Rockies shouldn’t have jumped the market. Taking a more patient approach could well have presented them with a “better” deal on a comparable player, or perhaps even a lower price tag on Cron. At the same time, they’ve now secured some cost certainty and ensured they’ll hang onto the specific person and teammate they clearly were targeting.

The broader issue for the Rockies will be one of how they supplement this roster next year. Extending Senzatela and Cron figure to be well-received moves among the Rockies’ fanbase, but all those moves accomplish for now is taking steps to ensure this same 74-win group can stay together. With Gray and Trevor Story both still ticketed for free agency — and Story widely expected to depart — the Rockies will need to add multiple pieces and/or see several big strides from young players just to get back to this year’s level of play. Actually improving the product and, more improbably, piecing together a contender that can jostle with the two best teams of the 2021 season (Giants and Dodgers) will require substantially more effort from Schmidt and his lieutenants.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Rockies and Cron were in active extension discussions. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network was first to report the two sides were in agreement. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the contract terms.

Devin Williams Fractures Hand, May Return In World Series

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October 5: The Brewers announced Williams underwent successful hand surgery today (as reported by Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt). The star reliever is currently in a splint and will rehab in the Brewers’ Arizona facility. Provided rehab goes as expected and the Brewers advance past their NL competition it’s possible Williams will be an option for the team during the World Series.

September 29: Brewers reliever Devin Williams is going on the 10-day injured list with a right hand fracture, the team informed reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com and Will Sammon of the Athletic). The injury is expected to require surgery and is likely to end his season, although Milwaukee isn’t completely ruling out the possibility he could return for the World Series if the club were to win the National League pennant.

It’s an incredible blow to the Brewers’ postseason plans, as few relievers in baseball have been better than Williams over the last two years. The right-hander broke into the majors late in 2019, but he logged few enough innings to retain rookie eligibility in 2020. Last season, Williams absurdly allowed just one earned run (four runs total) over 27 innings while striking out a laughable 53% of opposing hitters. That showing earned him the National League’s Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year awards.

It’d have never been reasonable to expect Williams to continue to dominate at quite that level again, but he’s posted another phenomenal season for the Brew Crew. Over 54 innings, he’s worked to a 2.50 ERA with a 38.5% strikeout rate that checks in seventh among the 249 relievers with 30+ frames. Williams had been expected to pair with Josh Hader to log the club’s highest-leverage postseason innings, but they’ll now have to navigate the playoff field (at least the first couple series) without one of their top bullpen weapons.

That’d be a crushing enough blow on its own, and the manner in which Williams got hurt only adds to the shock. He told reporters he suffered the injury after punching a wall on Sunday (video via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). He learned about its severity when he was unable to warm up before last night’s game. Williams’ dejection and disappointment in himself is obvious in that clip, and his potential season-ending absence was certainly similarly deflating news for the rest of the clubhouse.

The Brewers have already clinched the NL Central title, where they’ll meet up with the NL East winner (the Braves, in all likelihood) in the first round. In addition to Hader, manager Craig Counsell will have Hunter Strickland, Jake Cousins and Brent Suter as key end-of-game options. It’s also likely a productive member or two of the Brewers’ vaunted starting rotation (Adrian Houser, Brett Anderson and/or Eric Lauer) will work out of the pen as Milwaukee shortens the rotation to maximize the number of innings logged by Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. It’s still a very strong group of arms, but there’s no sugarcoating that losing Williams deals a significant blow that’ll force most of the rest of the staff up a peg in the pecking order.

To replace Williams on the active roster, Milwaukee selected veteran righty Colin Rea from Triple-A Nashville, designating utilityman Tim Lopes to clear a 40-man roster spot. Rea signed a minors deal last month and has performed well over seven starts. Through 35 2/3 frames with the Sounds, the 31-year-old has a 2.27 ERA with a solid 24.6% strikeout percentage and a minuscule 2.8% walk rate.

That earns Rea his first big league look of the season. The former Padres and Marlins hurler didn’t appear in the majors at all from 2017-19, but he made it back for a brief look with the Cubs last season. He tossed fourteen innings of nine-run ball with Chicago, striking out ten while issuing just a pair of walks.

Rea was in the organization by August 31, so he would be eligible for the Brewers’ postseason roster. Players in the system but not on the 40-man roster at the start of September can still be added to the playoff roster via petition to the Commissioner’s Office for teams with players unavailable due to injury. Considering Rea is coming up as a direct replacement for Williams, the Brewers should have no problem getting him onto the postseason roster if they’re impressed enough with his current form to want to do so.

Yankees Designate Andrew Heaney, Brody Koerner For Assignment

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The Yankees announced Tuesday that they’ve designated left-hander Andrew Heaney and right-hander Brody Koerner for assignment. The moves clear a pair of spots on the 40-man roster for outfielder Greg Allen and catcher Rob Brantly, whose contracts have been selected from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Heaney, 30, was a deadline pickup for the Yankees whom the team hoped to turn around after a rough start to the season in Anaheim. New York sent minor league righties Janson Junk and Elvis Peguero to the Halos in return for the final couple months of control over Heaney, a free agent at season’s end, but the move didn’t pan out as hoped.

Heaney, long a solid starter with a penchant for missing bats, saw this year’s alarming home run troubles skyrocket following his trade to the Bronx. The Yankees eventually moved him from the rotation to the ’pen, and it was clear he wasn’t a part of the team’s postseason plans when the team optioned him late in the season (a move that required the veteran’s consent).

In 35 2/3 innings with the Yankees, Heaney limped to a 7.32 ERA — due largely to an untenable 13 home runs allowed during that stretch. His 2021 season will come to a close with 129 2/3 frames of 5.83 ERA ball. To his credit, Heaney was markedly better than league-average in terms of strikeout rate (26.9%), walk rate (7.3%), swinging-strike rate (12.5%) and opponents’ chase rate (35.7%). Fielding-independent metrics like xERA (4.01), xFIP (4.12) and SIERA (3.84) all felt he pitched better than that ERA would suggest, but Heaney’s sky-high 2.01 HR/9 mark and 18.1% homer-to-flyball ratio torpedoed his earned run average. Given his mounting troubles keeping the ball in the yard, it’s not a surprise that the Yankees are electing to remove him from the postseason equation — particularly in advance of a sudden-death Wild Card showdown with the Red Sox.

Koerner, 27, had his contract selected for the final day of the season but was not used in a pivotal Game 162 matchup for the Yankees. He made a pair of appearances earlier in the season, allowing a run on two hits and two walks with one strikeout in a combined three innings of relief.

A former 17th-round pick (2015) who’s spent his entire career to date in the Yankees organization, Koerner pitched to a 3.39 ERA with a below-average 19.1% strikeout rate but better-than-average marks in terms of walk rate (7.1%) and ground-ball rate (45.8%) in 77 Triple-A frames this season. He’ll have the opportunity to become a minor league free agent if he goes unclaimed on waivers in the coming days.

The selection of Allen and Brantly from Triple-A gives the Yankees a pair of options on the bench for tonight’s Wild Card game. Allen provides manager Aaron Boone with a late pinch-running option and/or defensive replacement, while Brantly provides some insurance as an in-case-of-emergency third catcher.

Mets Decline Option On Manager Luis Rojas

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The Mets have declined their option on manager Luis Rojas, per a team announcement. Decisions on the remainder of the coaching staff are still pending and expected in the coming days, according to the team. Rojas managed the Mets from 2020-21 under a two-year contract that contained a pair of club options for the 2022-23 seasons. He’s been offered a different position within the organization in a “yet to be determined capacity,” the Mets added.

“The entire Mets organization is grateful for the dedication and devotion that Luis has exhibited over the last two seasons as manager,” team president Sandy Alderson said in today’s press release. “He has shown a great commitment to the Mets over many years in multiple capacities. These decisions are never easy, but we feel a change is needed at this time.”

Rojas, who turned 40 last month, unexpectedly was elevated from quality control coach to manager after the team abruptly parted ways with Carlos Beltran in the wake of the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. Beltran, who played with the Astros during that 2017 season and was named in the commissioner’s report at the conclusion of an investigation into the matter, had only been hired as skipper just months prior and did not manage a game with the Mets. Rojas had previously coached and managed in the Mets’ minor league system in addition to time spent as a manager in the Dominican Winter League.

The son of three-time All-Star and 1994 NL Manager of the Year Felipe Alou, and the half-brother of six-time All-Star Moises Alou, Rojas is a baseball lifer who’ll no doubt have ample opportunity to continue his career in the game whether he takes another role with the Mets or looks outside the organization.

“I want to share such heartfelt gratitude to so many in the Mets organization for not only the last two seasons as manager, but for the last 16 years in a variety of roles,” Rojas said in a prepared statement of his own. “In each and every position I held, striving for excellence was our daily mission. I will always hold the relationships and friendships, developed over the years, dear to my heart, and am forever grateful to have been able to wear the Mets uniform for so long. We live in a results oriented business, and am deeply disappointed for our staff and fans that we didn’t reach our goals this season.”

The Mets went 103-119 under Rojas, missing the postseason despite significant playoff aspirations in each of his two seasons as skipper. Injuries played a notable role in the failures of his club, and like any manager, he was oft-criticized for bullpen decisions. Rojas surely didn’t do himself any favors with his handling (and apparent lack of knowledge) of the Javier Baez “thumbs down” debacle, however, and as talk of sweeping changes throughout the organization continued to mount over the final weeks of the season, Rojas appeared to be on an increasingly hot seat.

With Rojas’ ousting now official, the Mets will remarkably begin their search for a fourth manager in five years. Terry Collins enjoyed one of the longest tenures of any manager in recent MLB history, but since the Mets moved on from him after the 2017 season, they’ve cycled through Mickey Callaway (fired and later reported to have committed repeated acts of sexual harassment during his tenure), Beltran (fired before he managed a game) and Rojas (out after two seasons). The Mets will also be in the market for a new baseball operations leader — their fourth since Alderson initially stepped away for health-related purposes in July 2018.

Cardinals, Adam Wainwright Agree To Extension

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Adam Wainwright is staying in St. Louis. The Cardinals announced an agreement to bring the right-hander back for the 2022 season. Wainwright’s deal comes with a $17.5MM salary. The deal also includes a full no-trade clause, although Wainwright has long had guaranteed no-trade rights as a player with more than ten years of big league service, the last five of which have come with his current team. Wainwright is represented by Aegis Sports Management.

Adam Wainwright | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Wainwright, who turned 40 at the end of August, has turned back the clock to deliver one of the best seasons of his career in 2021. He’s second among all Major League pitchers with 206 1/3 innings pitched and has turned in a 3.05 ERA that stands as the fifth-best mark he’s ever notched over a full season.

Though he’s averaging just 89.3 mph on his heater this season, Wainwright has avoided hard contact, displayed strong command (six percent walk rate) and kept the ball on the ground at an above-average clip. That pairs nicely with the all-world infield defense in St. Louis and has helped Wainwright thrive even in spite of a below-average 21 percent strikeout rate. He’s also kept the ball in the yard at his lowest rate since 2014 (0.92 HR/9, 11.7 percent homer-to-flyball rate).

That excellent season will likely get Wainwright some votes in Cy Young balloting, even if he’s not favored to win it. (Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler and Walker Buehler are among the other top contenders.) It also positioned Wainwright to handily top this season’s $8MM salary, which has turned into a bargain for a scorching-hot Cardinals team that won 17 straight games to clinch a Wild Card berth — a sudden-death showdown for which they’ve already announced Wainwright as the starting pitcher.

Retaining Wainwright gives the Cardinals some additional certainty in the rotation next year. He’ll slot in alongside fellow righties Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson, the latter of whom just returned from Tommy John surgery. Top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore could be ready for his debut early in 2022, and the Cards have a handful of other in-house options, including Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo and, if they want to move him from the bullpen to a starting role, Alex Reyes.

The Cards could of course dip their toes into the offseason market for starting pitching. They’re currently set to lose Kwang Hyun Kim, J.A. Happ and Jon Lester to free agency, and a lack of depth nearly sank their season earlier this summer when the majority of their rotation hit the injured list. St. Louis had under $90MM in guaranteed contracts on the books in 2022 before re-signing Wainwright — Matt Carpenter and Carlos Martinez will be off the books once their 2022 options are declined — so there’s certainly room to add to the payroll.

From a broader perspective, Wainwright’s return also sets the stage for an emotional season at Busch Stadium. He’s not yet made a declaration that the 2022 campaign will be his final season in the Majors, but given his age, that’s of course a possibility. Even if Wainwright sets his sights on pitching beyond next season, the 2022 campaign will be a farewell tour for Yadier Molina, who has announced his intention to retire following what will be his 19th season in St. Louis.

Wainwright and Molina are an iconic duo in St. Louis — a battery pairing emblematic of the repeated contenders put forth during this generation of Cardinals baseball. They’ve won a pair of World Series rings together, in 2006 and 2011, and there are few more memorable moments in recent Cardinals history than Wainwright buckling Carlos Beltran to close out the ’06 NLCS and then fanning Brandon Inge to clinch the organization’s first World Series in (at the time) more than two decades. Molina, naturally, was on the receiving end of both pitches.

Regardless of Wainwright’s future status, it’ll be the last season that Cardinals fans can root on a pair that seems destined to have their numbers retired and head into the team’s Hall of Fame. At 184 career wins, Wainwright will have a chance to cross the 200 mark next year as well — a milestone reached only by 119 players in big league history.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first reported that Wainwright and the Cardinals had agreed to an extension. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported the contract was worth more than $15MM. The Associated Press reported the $17.5MM figure and the presence of the no-trade clause.

Shohei Ohtani Open To Discussing Long-Term Deal With Angels

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Shohei Ohtani created plenty of speculation when he recently revealed that there’d been no extension talks with the Angels front office and added that above all else, his priority moving forward is “to win.” With the Angels now officially posting a losing record in six straight seasons, fans and pundits alike have wondered about Ohtani’s future in Anaheim. The likely American League MVP emphasized following the conclusion of the Halos’ 2021 season, however, that he’d carry an open mind into any discussions regarding a long-term extension (link via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).

“I think I would, of course, talk to them with feelings of openness,” Ohtani said via his interpreter. “Regardless of whether that leads to anything, I individually want to have a solid offseason to make sure we can win next year.”

The matter of Ohtani’s contract for the 2022 season is already settled. Back in February, he signed a two-year, $8.5MM contract that covered his first two arbitration seasons (2021 and 2022) — a decision for the Angels surely have to be thankful in retrospect. Ohtani’s outstanding season on both sides of the ball would have surely led to a much larger salary in arbitration than the $5.5MM he’ll receive next year under that two-year pact.

It was a historic season for Ohtani, who tallied 639 plate appearances as a hitter and also logged 130 1/3 innings on the mound. His 46 home runs at the plate were third in all of baseball, trailing only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Salvador Perez. Ohtani hit .257/.372/.592 with 46 long balls, 26 doubles, eight triples and 26 steals. He scored 103 runs, plated another 100 and posted the fourth-best walk rate among qualified hitters.

On the mound, his 29.3 percent strikeout rate on the mound was tied for 12th among the 96 pitchers who tossed at least 120 innings, and his 3.18 ERA ranked 22nd. Ohtani’s 8.3 percent walk rate was a half-percent higher than the average starting pitcher but his huge strikeout rate and above-average ground-ball rate (45 percent) helped to make him one of the more effective starting pitchers in the game on a per-inning basis.

If Ohtani proves at all capable of approximating that production in 2022, he’d set himself up for perhaps the most fascinating and complex arbitration case in Major League history. An extension, of course, would preclude that headache for the Angels — but his brilliant 2021 season has also made any potential negotiations as complicated as an arbitration hearing would be.

Ohtani has rather clearly cemented himself as one of the game’s greatest pure talents. He’s two years from free agency, so the first couple seasons of a theoretical extension wouldn’t pay him full market value (although a new deal could theoretically begin next season and replace his $5.5MM salary in favor of a larger sum). Beyond that, the question is just how highly the would-be free agent seasons might be priced. Ohtani’s teammate, Mike Trout, and Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole received the largest average annual salaries in MLB history, $36MM per season, when signing their respective deals. (While Trout’s contract was technically restructured as a 12-year, $426.5MM deal, that includes the two years and $66.5MM he was already guaranteed at the time of his extension, which paid him $360MM in new money over 10 years — hence the $36MM AAV figure.)

Free-agent seasons that are bought out this far in advance are typically (but not always) discounted to some extent, but the inherent difficulty in assigning a value to Ohtani’s free-agent campaigns is multi-faceted. Not only is he two years from the market, he’s also only had one full, healthy season on the mound. It’s clear that he’s of top-of-the-rotation caliber from a pure talent perspective, but he pitched just 53 1/3 innings combined in his first three MLB seasons (thanks largely to Tommy John surgery).

That lack of durability is an obvious red flag and strike against him. At the same time, if the Angels wait another year to determine whether Ohtani can replicate or exceed that workload on the mound, he’ll only further drive up his price tag — both by proving his durability and moving closer to free agency. There’s also no precedent for a player with this skill set, so his representatives at CAA could argue that any valuations based on comparisons to other players and/or contracts are generally irrelevant.

Stepping back a bit, the Angels’ entire payroll needs to be considered when looking at the prospect of retaining Ohtani on what would presumably be a massive commitment. The Angels will have Justin Upton’s contract come off the books following the 2022 season — which is no small sum given next year’s $28MM salary.

However, the Halos are already paying Trout a $35.45MM salary every year from 2022-30, and they’ll also pay Anthony Rendon $36MM in 2022 before paying him $38MM annually from 2023-26 under his backloaded $245MM contract. Trout and Rendon, like Ohtani, have proven to be MVP-caliber talents at their best. Trout has three MVPs and arguably ought to have more, and Rendon has a pair of top-five finishes, including a third-place finish as recently as 2019. We can’t know precisely what value would be placed on Ohtani’s free-agent seasons — the first of which would be his age-29 campaign — but that an extension would likely mean paying out more than $100MM annually to just three players, at least from 2024-26.

The Angels are a large-market club, but they also haven’t traditionally spent at the same level as other big-market teams like the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, etc. This year’s $182MM Opening Day payroll was the largest in franchise history, and owner Arte Moreno hasn’t given his front office the green-light on exceeding the luxury tax threshold since way back in 2004 — his first full season as owner after purchasing the club in May 2003.

There’s no way of knowing just yet what will happen to the luxury tax system in the future, as it’ll be a hotly contested topic during ongoing collective bargaining talks between the league and the players association. Whatever alterations do come about will be key factors for Moreno and second-year general manager Perry Minasian to consider in negotiations with Ohtani’s camp, as paying Trout, Rendon and Ohtani on long-term arrangements would make filling out a roster behind that trio all the more difficult.

All of that comes before even considering other needs in the rotation and the absence of proven, cost-controlled starters on a team that has perennial rotation issues. The Angels have a handful of interesting young arms (e.g. Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Jaime Barria), but they’ll likely need to bring in some veteran arms as well. There’s also the matter of a lack of a long-term solution at shortstop and the looming, star-studded crop of free-agent shortstops to consider. It all makes for a fascinating long-term outlook in Anaheim, as should be expected with a talent as unique as Ohtani and a big-market club as starved for a postseason berth as the Angels, who haven’t appeared in a playoff game since 2014.

The original version of this post cited an Associated Press translation of Ohtani’s quote, which indicated he is “very open” to discussing an extension. Our post has since been updated to reflect what we are told is a more accurate but slightly different translation of his response, from the Los Angeles Times, that he would talk to the Angels “with feelings of openness.”

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