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Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st, and it’s unclear whether its rules for draft pick compensation will remain in place for the 2021-22 offseason, whenever teams eventually sign free agents.  It’s at least possible that the current rules will be used once more.  We know that the qualifying offer is set at $18.4MM this winter, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO.  If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose – if the old rules are used.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres

If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins

These 13 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.  Of this group, the Mariners and Tigers seem to be the most likely to sign a qualified free agent, but others like the Twins and Marlins are possible.

All Other Teams: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees

These 15 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground.  The Mets are of particular note: due to their failure to sign Kumar Rocker, they pick at both #11 and #14 in 2022, making that #14 pick subject to forfeiture.

What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

Cardinals Name Oliver Marmol Manager

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Oct. 25: The Cardinals have formally introduced Marmol as the 51st manager in franchise history. He signed a three-year contract that’ll run through the 2024 season, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Oct. 24: The Cardinals are set to announce bench coach Oliver Marmol as the team’s next manager, according to Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).  The Cards have called a press conference for Monday morning to officially introduce Marmol.

The hiring concludes an unusual start to the St. Louis offseason, as there wasn’t any indication that previous manager Mike Shildt’s job was in danger before the Cardinals surprisingly fired Shildt 10 days ago.  As president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters, “philosophical differences” emerged with Shildt, and while some reports have surfaced about what some of those differences may have been, it appears the issue was indeed with Shildt alone.  It seems as though the Cards will be bringing back most of their coaching staff for 2022, though a new bench coach will now be needed with Marmol being elevated to the top job.

Oliver Marmol

Marmol was seen as a candidate essentially from the moment the news broke of Shildt’s firing, and at age 35, Marmol is now the youngest current manager in the big leagues.  He is also the first person of color to work as the Cardinals manager in over 80 years, since Mike Gonzalez briefly managed the team on an interim basis in both 1938 and 1940 (a total of 23 games).

Despite his young age, Marmol already has plenty of experience on the bench.  Originally a sixth-round pick for the Cards in the 2007 draft, Marmol played four seasons in the minors before transitioning to coaching and managing in the St. Louis farm system.  He has spent the last five seasons on the Cardinals’ MLB coaching staff, working two years as first base coach before working as Shildt’s bench coach for the last three seasons.

Marmol is now the third manager Mozeliak has hired during his tenure as the team’s GM and president of baseball operations, and like predecessors Shildt and Mike Matheny, Marmol also has longstanding ties to the St. Louis organization.  In a sense, Marmol is something of a blend of the two previous skippers — he has Matheny’s relative youth and more recent playing experience, but also a resume of managerial experience in the minors and coaching experience in the majors, a la Shildt.  Marmol has been mentioned as a potential manager of the future for the Cardinals and other teams, so the Cards’ hiring decision may have been partially inspired by a desire to keep Marmol in the fold.

The newly-minted skipper will face plenty of expectations in the top job, as the Cardinals have reached the postseason in three straight seasons but suffered two early exits (losing to the Dodgers in this year’s wild card game and to the Padres in the 2020 wild card series) and a four-game sweep to the Nationals in the 2019 NLCS.  St. Louis fans are always expecting to win, and since 2022 will be Yadier Molina’s farewell season, there is perhaps even extra pressure for extended playoff success next year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Report: Max Scherzer Won’t Start NLCS Game Six

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Max Scherzer won’t be starting for the Dodgers in the sixth game of the NLCS as planned, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. As Castillo details, Scherzer’s wasn’t feeling 100% on Sunday when he started game two. The hurler himself said his “arm was dead.” Despite that, the team’s plan was still to start Scherzer in game six tomorrow. Juan Toribio of MLB.com reports that “Scherzer’s arm just hasn’t bounced back” as the team hoped. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports that Scherzer is a possibility for game seven, but it will depend on how he feels between now and then.

This is certainly a concerning development for a Dodgers team that has pushed its pitching staff to the brink of exhaustion this postseason. Since they were in the midst of a race with the Giants for the division crown all season, they had no opportunity to ease off the gas pedal and had to lean on their best pitchers right until the season’s final day. Since they came up short in that race, they had to immediately gear up for the wild card game, which Scherzer started, throwing 94 pitches as the Dodgers walked-off the Cardinals and advanced to the NLDS.

Since then, they have used their starters so much that they had to opt for a bullpen game yesterday, despite the fact that they were facing a 3-1 deficit to Atlanta. Seven different pitchers took the mound for the club and led them to an 11-2 victory that seemed to set the stage for Scherzer to take the ball in game six, attempting to even up the series and force a game seven.

Now that Scherzer is off the table, the Dodgers have a few options, although all of them less appealing than a healthy Scherzer. One would be another bullpen game, although that’s a tall ask given that they just had one. However, they do have tonight off, which should theoretically replenish all of their relievers, at least to some degree.

Another option would be turn to David Price, who was just added to the roster to take the place of the injured Joe Kelly. But Price hasn’t pitched in three weeks, with his last appearance coming October 2nd. And even then, he wasn’t stretched out to start. His last six appearances on the season were out of the bullpen and less than two innings. He was stretched out before that, with five consecutive outings of at least 3 2/3 innings, but the last of those was August 28th. That means he’s almost two months removed from carrying a starter’s workload.

Tony Gonsolin was stretched out to finish the season and could also be leaned on for some innings, though he didn’t pitch at all in the NLDS and has only thrown short stints in the NLCS. His last outing was 39 pitches over two innings on Wednesday, the same night that Julio Urias threw 92 pitches over five innings.

Another option, and probably the best one, would be to have Walker Buehler pitch on short rest. His last outing was on Tuesday, though he only threw 76 pitches after getting chased from the game in the fourth inning.

One way or another, manager Dave Roberts and the rest of the Dodgers’ staff will have to be creative. In order to make it into the World Series, they’ll need to find a way to grind through 18 innings without their best option.

Yankees Sign Aaron Boone To Three-Year Deal

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After a lengthy silence on the contract status of manager Aaron Boone, the Yankees announced Tuesday that they’ve signed their skipper to a three-year deal that runs through the 2024 campaign. Boone’s contract also contains a club option for the 2025 season. His prior contract had been set to expire after the World Series.

Aaron Boone | Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

“We have a person and manager in Aaron Boone who possesses the baseball acumen and widespread respect in our clubhouse to continue to guide us forward,” owner Hal Steinbrenner said in a statement within this morning’s press release. “As a team and as an organization, we must grow, evolve and improve.  We need to get better.  Period.  I know Aaron fully embraces our expectations of success, and I look forward to drawing on his intelligence, instincts and leadership in pursuit of our next World Series championship.”

It’s been two weeks since the Yankees’ season ended in a 6-2 loss at the hands of their archrival Red Sox. Along the way, New York parted with hitting coach Marcus Thames, third base coach Phil Nevin and assistant hitting coach P.J. Pilittere — all amid wide-ranging speculation about broader changes. Boone, however, will not only return for the 2022 campaign but on a multi-year deal that’ll keep him in the Yankees’ dugout through at least the 2024 season.

Boone, 48, was hired in the 2017-18 offseason following the departure of longtime skipper Joe Girardi. He’s spent four years at the helm in the Bronx, managing the team to a 328-218 regular-season record and reaching the postseason in all four years he’s been with the club — including a 2019 division championship. Those ’19 Yankees made it to an ALCS showdown against the Astros but fell in six games, which represents the deepest run they’ve made in Boone’s four years.

Expectations are perennially sky-high in the Bronx, and four straight years without a World Series appearance under Boone has prompted a vocal portion of the fanbase to call for a change in the dugout. Steinbrenner said back in July, however, that Boone was “absolutely” the right person to lead the team moving forward (although he also voiced confidence in the coaching staff at the same time, and there will be considerable turnover in that regard). His view apparently has not changed. Steinbrenner’s late father, George, was known for more impulsive changes, but Hal emphasized in that July press conference that he’s his own person while also pointing out that many of his father’s rash personnel changes did not pay dividends.

Boone is now under contract for a longer period of time than general manager Brian Cashman, whose previous five-year contract runs through the 2022 season. Steinbrenner has been vocally supportive of Cashman, just as he has Boone, so a new deal at some point wouldn’t register as a major surprise. That said, with a year to go on that contract, ownership needn’t feel any urgency to begin discussions.

The YES Network’s Jack Curry first reported that Boone would be returning on a new three-year contract with a club option for a fourth season (Twitter links).

Billy Beane Withdraws Name From Consideration For Mets’ Job

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4:50 pm: The Mets recently obtained permission from the A’s to speak with Beane to gauge his interest in the vacancy, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). However, Beane informed Alderson at that point that he didn’t wish to pursue the position.

1:28 pm: Athletics executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane has with drawn his name from consideration for the Mets’ vacant president of baseball operations role, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted earlier in the day that the Mets were quite pessimistic about their chances of luring Beane, and the Mets have also reportedly been denied permission to interview Brewers president David Stearns for what would be a lateral move. It’s the second straight year the Brewers have denied the Mets permission to interview Stearns.

The Mets’ early reported wishlist of Theo Epstein, Beane and Stearns has, in largely unsurprising fashion, fizzled out rather quickly. Epstein spoke with owner Steve Cohen earlier this month, after which reports indicated the two agreed there was no fit in place. Epstein stepped down as Cubs president of baseball operations this time last year and said shortly thereafter that while he did envision an eventual “third chapter” to his baseball operations career, he planned to be away from the rigors of a full-time baseball ops job for more than a year.

Both Beane and Stearns, meanwhile, are under contract with their current organizations through at least the 2022 season. Beane, in particular, would’ve been an ambitious target given that he’d need to divest his minority ownership stake in the A’s in order to take a job with the Mets, where former Beane mentor Sandy Alderson is the current team president.

There’s been a good bit of speculation regarding the Mets and that trio, but given Epstein’s comments last year and the contractual status of Stearns and Beane, all three have seemed like long shots. The initial composition of the Mets’ list suggests that they’re aiming for experienced, high-profiled executives to take up the president of baseball operations mantle in Queens, but it’s not yet clear who’ll be interviewed for the post.

Former Padres and D-backs general manager Josh Byrnes, currently a senior vice president of baseball operations with the Dodgers, has reportedly been the subject of internal discussions among the Mets. SNY’s Andy Martino suggested over the weekend that the Mets could look to Brewers GM Matt Arnold, Giants GM Scott Harris or Dodgers assistant GM Brandon Gomes.

Hiring either Arnold or Harris would require the Mets to offer a president of baseball operations title, as executives are generally only allowed to interview with other clubs in order to pursue a promotion (hence the Brewers denying permission to speak to Stearns). Gomes could conceivably be hired as a general manager, although Martino reported that the Dodgers could be prepared to promote Gomes to that position within their own organization if he draws interest elsewhere. Los Angeles does not currently have a general manager under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and has not since then-GM Farhan Zaidi was hired away by the division-rival Giants.

MLB To Require Teams To Provide Housing For Minor Leaguers

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Beginning in the 2022 season, Major League Baseball will require all 30 teams to provide housing for all minor league players, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports.  The owners agreed to the decision via unanimous vote last month, though details of the plan are still being worked out, such as whether the teams will have to directly provide the housing, or if players’ stipends will be increased with more money to be specifically directed towards renting or other accommodations.

Today’s news is both welcome and overdue, considering that the conditions faced by most minor league players has been a subject of controversy in recent years, especially since those conditions worsened due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Several reporters (including ESPN’s Joon Lee, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, and The Athletic’s Sam Blum) and several past and present minor leaguers have illustrated the meager salaries paid to most players in the minors, which has subsequently forced many of those players into less-than-ideal living situations.  This has a snowball effect on a player’s diet, sleep, ability to properly train, and their mental health in general, leaving it difficult for many prospects to even live their lives normally, let alone focus on developing their baseball skills.

Some teams have already taken steps to improve the environments of their minor league players, whether it through increased stipends for food or lodging, improved minor league facilities, or (as the Astros implemented for their prospects this year) fully furnished housing arranged and paid for by the club.  The league-wide mandate, however, will put standards in place for all 30 teams to follow.

Astros’ ALCS Roster Does Not Include Lance McCullers Jr.

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The Astros have suffered a notable blow to their ALCS roster, which was announced this morning and does not include ailing right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. His status for the ALCS was up in the air after he exited last round’s decisive Game 4 due to forearm discomfort and underwent a subsequent MRI. The team hasn’t made a formal announcement on McCullers’ injury just yet, so it’s not clear whether he might be able to return for a potential World Series push. Houston also dropped third catcher Garrett Stubbs for their showdown with the Red Sox.

Replacing McCullers and Stubbs on the ALCS roster are right-hander Jake Odorizzi and lefty Blake Taylor. Odorizzi will give the team an additional option in the rotation with McCullers sidelined, while Taylor gives manager Dusty Baker a second southpaw option in the bullpen. Here’s how the roster breaks down…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

The veteran Odorizzi had a rocky go of things in free agency last winter, as his eventual two-year deal with Houston fell a ways shy of expectations. Many teams opted to barely spend at all in free agency on the heels of a season without ticket revenues, and Odorizzi was one of several players who struggled to find a fit. His contract with the ’Stros was signed well into Spring Training, preventing the righty from getting full ramp-up to the season. Some rust was apparent early on, when Odorizzi gave up nine runs through eight innings total across his first three starts. He hit the injured list with a pronator strain, returned a month later, and looked much more like the version of Odorizzi we’ve generally come to expect.

From May 29 forward, Odorizzi pitched to a 3.72 ERA with a 19.8 percent strikeout rate and 7.7  percent walk rate. The results were generally solid, but Odorizzi averaged fewer than five innings per start as the team rather rigidly opted against letting him face opposing lineups a third time through the order. That led to some vocal frustration from Odorizzi when asked about a quick hook in a postgame press session late in the season, but the right-hander said a day later that things had been smoothed over after an open and candid talk with Baker, pitching coach Brent Strom and general manager James Click.

The exact role Odorizzi will have in the ALCS isn’t clear. He’s stayed in shape and prepared in the event that he’d be added to the roster after being omitted from the ALDS. He could be utilized as a long-relief option, but it’s also plausible that he’ll be called upon to make start in the middle of the series. Houston has only announced Valdez and Garcia as the Game 1 and Game 2 starters for now. Presumably, the Game 3 and Game 4 starters will be decided based on early usage for the staff in the first two games and the broader context of wins and losses in the early going.

Houston’s decision to omit McCullers also creates the possibility that he could be added back to the ALCS roster as an injury replacement, depending on how his forearm progresses. Had the Astros included him on the initial roster and then had to remove him once again, he’d have been rendered ineligible for the World Series, should Houston advance that far.

Cubs Name Carter Hawkins General Manager

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Eleven months after Jed Hoyer was promoted from general manager to Cubs president of baseball operations in the wake of Theo Epstein’s decision to step down, the team has settled on a new general manager. The Cubs announced Friday that they’ve hired Indians assistant general manager Carter Hawkins as the 16th general manager in franchise history. Hoyer will still lead the team’s baseball operations department, but Hawkins will work closely alongside him and serve as the No. 2 executive in the team’s baseball operations hierarchy.

“I am thrilled to bring Carter into our organization,” Hoyer said in today’s press release. “He has earned a fantastic reputation as a leader through hard work, open-mindedness, humility and intelligence. I enjoyed getting to know him throughout the interview process, and it quickly became clear that we share the same passion for team building. I look forward to partnering with him to build the next great Cubs team.”

Though Hawkins is only 37 years old, he already has 14 years of experience working in Cleveland’s front office, working his way up the ranks from an internship to being the team’s player development director in 2014, and then a promotion to assistant GM in 2016.  He’ll now join a Cubs organization that has made no secret of its desire to upgrade its farm system and player development operations.

To that end, it perhaps isn’t surprising that both Hawkins and Indians VP of player development James Harris were each on Chicago’s reported short list of GM candidates.  Rays VP of player development/international scouting Carlos Rodriguez and Twins assistant general manager Jeremy Zoll were the other names known to be on the Cubs’ radar.  Hoyer said last winter that the team would wait to fill the GM role, since the circumstances of the pandemic made a proper interview process more difficult at the time.

Hawkins will now step in as Hoyer’s chief lieutenant as the Cubs begin what could be a fascinating offseason.  After a fire sale of veterans at the trade deadline, Chicago now has a younger and less expensive roster, though it isn’t yet known if the Cubs plan to use this available future payroll space to make an immediate splash for 2022.  Hoyer has stated that the team intends to “spend money intelligently” this winter, but the Cubs will also be “really active in free agency.”

Measured offseason spending is nothing new for Hawkins, as the Indians have a longstanding model of building through trades and homegrown prospects rather than major free agent signings.  Of course, the Cubs have a much larger revenue base than Cleveland, and a drastic cut in spending doesn’t (or shouldn’t) seem feasible considering that the Cubs have been regularly approached or surpassed the $200MM payroll mark in recent years.  This isn’t to say that the Cubs will immediately zoom back up to the $200MM threshold this offseason, but the plan seems to be for Hoyer, Hawkins and company to remodel the team’s minor league pipeline to the point that Chicago will have a steady run of young talent ready to augment whatever higher-priced veterans are on hand.

Britt Ghiroli, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic first broke the news that the Cubs planned to hire Hawkins and were finalizing a contract.

Cardinals Dismiss Manager Mike Shildt

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The Cardinals have fired manager Mike Shildt, as first reported by Rob Rains of StLSportsPage (Twitter link). At a press conference announcing the news, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including Jeff Passan of ESPN) the organization made the decision based on “philosophical differences” between Shildt and the front office about the direction of the franchise.

It’s a shocking development, since there was no prior indication Shildt’s job was in jeopardy. Indeed, the broader expectation as recently as last week had been that Shildt and the team would try to work out a contract extension, with his current deal running only through the 2022 season. Instead, the Cardinals will go in another direction in spite of the club’s strong run of play during Shildt’s tenure.

Today’s announcement concludes Shildt’s nearly two decades in the Cardinal organization. The 53-year-old began his career as a scout and minor league coach in the St. Louis system in the early 2000’s, steadily working his way up the organizational ladder. By 2017, he’d earned a spot on the big league coaching staff, and he took over as the major league manager on an interim basis in July 2018 when the club fired Mike Matheny. The team removed the interim tag a month later.

St. Louis won the NL Central and advanced to the NLCS in 2019, Shildt’s first full season at the helm. They finished in second place and lost in the Wild Card round during last year’s shortened season. This year, the Cardinals hovered right around .500 for the first few months before rattling off a miraculous 17-game win streak in September to coast to a Wild Card spot. St. Louis lost to the Dodgers in last week’s Wild Card game and ultimately won just one playoff series during Shildt’s tenure, but the club advanced to the playoffs all three years in which he was at the helm.

While there’s little to quibble with from a results perspective, the front office clearly determined a new voice was needed behind the scenes. While announcing the news, Mozeliak noted that the Cardinals believe they have “quality internal candidates” who could be options to step into the manager’s office, although he declined additional comment when asked whether the team planned to stay internal or look outside the organization for Shildt’s replacement (via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Mozeliak added that he hoped the rest of the coaching staff would return in 2022, although that’s yet to be determined.

Given the Cardinals’ success under Shildt, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him land another coaching or managerial position elsewhere in the near future. He was named the National League’s manager of the year in 2019 and his teams posted a 252-199 record (55.9% winning percentage) over the past three-plus seasons.

The Cardinals become the third team looking for a new manager this offseason. The Padres fired Jayce Tingler a few days after the end of the regular season, while the Mets announced they would not pick up their 2022 option on skipper Luis Rojas.

Qualifying Offer Value Set At $18.4MM

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This year’s qualifying offer will be worth $18.4MM, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter).  This represents a drop from last year’s $18.9MM figure, and the second time in the history of the qualifying offer that the value has declined from the previous season.  The QO was worth $17.8MM in the 2019-20 offseason, slightly below the $17.9MM price tag for the winter of 2018-19.

The qualifying offer is recalculated annually, as it is determined by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in baseball.  The $500K drop from last year therefore looks like a reflection of the slower market of the 2020-21 offseason, as several teams spent less in the wake of reported and claimed revenue losses from the pandemic.

Still, the lower figure still counts as a surprise, as the general feeling was that the QO would end up rising to somewhere in the $19-$20MM range for the coming offseason.  Originally instituted for the 2012-13 offseason, the qualifying offer has varied annually but generally increases year-over-year:

  • 2012-13: $13.3MM
  • 2013-14: $14.4MM
  • 2014-15: $15.3MM
  • 2015-16: $15.8MM
  • 2016-17: $17.2MM
  • 2017-18: $17.4MM
  • 2018-19: $17.9MM
  • 2019-20: $17.8MM
  • 2020-21: $18.9MM
  • 2021-22: $18.4MM

To recap the QO process, teams can issue a one-year contract to any of their free agents who a) have never received a qualifying offer, and b) have been with the team for the entirety of the previous season.  For instance, impending free agents like Starling Marte, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, or Kyle Schwarber can’t receive qualifying offers since they were traded at midseason.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently compiled a list of every player who has already been issued a qualifying offer in the past, for reference purposes.

Players who receive a qualifying offer have 10 days to make their decision, and if a player accepts a QO this winter, he’ll return to his club on a one-year contract and earn an $18.4MM salary in 2022.  (A player can also work out a longer-term extension with his team after accepting a qualifying offer, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  If the player rejects the QO, his new team will have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some international spending pool money in order to make the signing, and his former team will receive a compensatory draft pick.

Back in August, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco broke down which of this winter’s free agents are likeliest to receive a qualifying offer, and which players might be more borderline cases.  As we’ve seen in the past, a QO can have a significant impact on a player’s earning potential, if teams are hesitant about surrendering significant draft capital or a hefty one-year salary to a free agent who might be a riskier candidate to provide elite value going forward.

This potential dampening effect of the QO has long been a thorn in the side of agents and the MLB Players Association, and the future of the qualifying offer figures to be a notable topic in negotiations over the new collective bargaining agreement.  It is quite possible that 2021-22 will be the last offseason featuring the qualifying offer in its current form, though it isn’t likely that owners will be keen on removing signing compensation and/or penalties from the free agent process.

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