Carlos Carrasco Suffers Torn Hamstring
6:12pm: Carrasco suffered a tear, per DiComo. It’s a serious injury that could require at least a six- to eight-week absence, a source told Mike Puma of the New York Post.
1:39pm: Just hours after Mets skipper Luis Rojas gave a positive update on right-hander Carlos Carrasco‘s sore elbow, Carrasco is now headed for an MRI to evaluate the extent of a right hamstring strain, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (via Twitter). Carrasco apparently sustained the new injury when doing conditioning work following this morning’s 20-pitch simulated inning.
Given the new injury, DiComo notes that it is “exceedingly difficult” to see Carrasco being ready to step into the Opening Day rotation. The aforementioned elbow discomfort had already shut him down for eight days, and while he’d been building up in side sessions prior to that, Carrasco still has yet to pitch in a Grapefruit League game.
Obviously, a timeline on the injury can’t be known, but it’s a nevertheless inauspicious start to the talented righty’s Mets tenure. Carrasco, 34, came to the Mets alongside Francisco Lindor in the blockbuster deal that sent a prospect package headlined by Andres Gimenez to Cleveland over the winter. He’s expected to factor prominently into a deep Mets rotation, joining Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker among the top four projected members of the staff.
If Carrasco isn’t able to go come Opening Day, it seems likely we’ll see two members of what increasingly appears to be a three-horse rotation race make the club. David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto have all been competing for the fifth starter’s job and all have thrown well.
Orioles Sign Maikel Franco, Place Hunter Harvey On 60-Day IL
The Orioles have made a late addition to their infield via free agency, signing former Phillies and Royals third baseman Maikel Franco to a one-year, Major League contract. The O’s announced the move at the top of the hour, placing right-hander Hunter Harvey on the 60-day injured list with an oblique strain in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Franco, a client of Mato Sports Management, will reportedly earn $800K in guaranteed money with another $200K available via incentives and a trade assignment bonus being factored into the deal as well.
Franco makes a logical roster fit for the O’s, who had been otherwise slated to turn to Rio Ruiz at the hot corner. The 27-year-old Ruiz has just a .229/.299/.393 line across 617 plate appearances (84 wRC+) over the past two seasons. He has shown roughly league-average power (21 home runs, .164 ISO), but his on-base deficiencies and slightly below-average defensive ratings at third have left him hovering just above replacement level overall.
It’s reasonable to expect Franco to offer an upgrade on that production. The former Phillies top prospect showed flashes of promise in Philadelphia but never amounted to expectations. After being cut loose by the Phils, though, Franco posted a decent season with the Royals in 2020. He played in all sixty of Kansas City’s games (starting 51) and hit .278/.321/.457. As with Ruiz, low walk rates and batting averages on balls in play have led to on-base deficiencies. Franco, though, strikes out less often and has hit for more power than Ruiz.
Franco will be rather behind schedule at this point, so he may not be ready to step into the lineup on Opening Day. The two sides seemingly prepared for that reality, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman indicated at the time of the agreement that Franco consented to being optioned to the Orioles’ alternate site early in the season, if need be, in order to continue ramping up. As a player with five-plus years of MLB service time, Franco can only be optioned to the minors with his approval.
Even amidst a full rebuild, there’s value for the Orioles in making improvements at the margins of the roster. Barring an unexpected breakout in 2021, it’d be hard to imagine Franco commanding a huge trade return. Still, should he sign, Franco would be a viable candidate to be flipped for something of future value at the deadline. Non-tendered by the Royals last fall, he’d surely come at a low cost.
Franco’s modest guarantee will have minimal impact on an already minuscule Orioles payroll. He’s promised a bit less than $300K more than the league minimum, pushing Baltimore’s payroll just beyond the $60MM mark, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. Franco joins shortstop Freddy Galvis (one year, $1.5MM) as Baltimore’s only major league free agent signees of the winter. It’s always possible the O’s could make another addition or two, particularly as veterans continue to opt out of minor league deals elsewhere around the league, but there’s no indication at this time that anything further is in the works.
As for Harvey, today’s IL placement is the latest setback for the now-26-year-old former top prospect. Baltimore tabbed Harvey with the No. 22 overall pick back in 2013, and he was at one point widely regarded as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects. Injuries have decimated his career to this point, and the O’s moved him to the bullpen in 2019, hoping the reduced innings total would help to keep him healthier. He’s pitched 15 innings out of the ‘pen over the past two seasons, working to a 3.00 ERA with 17 strikeouts against six walks.
Harvey had been expected to be in the ninth-inning mix for the O’s in 2021, but that won’t be the case — at least not early in the year. The 60-day IL placement can only be backdated to three days prior to Opening Day, meaning he’ll miss at least the first 57 days of the upcoming season. Harvey could technically return by late May, then, but there’s no timetable for his return at the moment.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first reported that the two sides were in talks. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko added that the Orioles had put a formal offer on the table. Heyman then reported the agreement and the terms.
Nick Markakis Retires
Veteran outfielder Nick Markakis is calling it a career after 15 seasons at the Major League level, he tells David O’Brien and Dan Connolly of The Athletic. The 37-year-old says he made up his mind shortly after the postseason ended and did not pursue any opportunities this winter. “My No. 1 decision and my main focus on this is obviously my kids and my family,” Markakis said, adding that he’s both fortunate and thankful to have been able to play the game as long as he has.
The seventh overall pick back in 2003, Markakis spent fewer than three years in the minors before debuting as a 22-year-old and never looking back. He hit .291/.351/.448 in 147 games and finished sixth in 2006 American League Rookie of the Year voting with the Orioles, setting the stage for a nine-year run of strong play with the organization which originally drafted him.
Baltimore signed Markakis to a six-year, $66MM extension that covered the 2009-14 seasons, keeping him with the O’s for three would-be free agent seasons. Markakis helped the Orioles to playoff berths in 2012 and in 2014, and in total he posted a strong .290/.358/.435 slash through 5966 plate appearances as an Oriole, winning two Gold Gloves along the way.
Free agency took Markakis to his native Georgia, however, as he inked a four-year, $44MM contract to join an up-and-coming Braves club as their primary right fielder. He spent his next (and final) six seasons in Atlanta, batting a combined .283/.357/.402 and making his lone All-Star appearance with the ’18 Braves — a season in which he also took home a Silver Slugger Award and his third career Gold Glove.
Markakis was a workhorse both in Baltimore and Atlanta, averaging 151 games played from his 2006 debut up through the 2019 season. His only two injuries of note were a fractured hamate bone 2012 and a fractured wrist in 2019. He played in all 162 games of the 2018 season — one of seven seasons in which the ultra-durable Markakis played at least 160 games.
All in all, Markakis will wrap up his career as a .288/.357/.423 batter over the life of 9321 plate appearances. He racked up 2388 hits along the way, including 189 home runs, 514 doubles and 22 triples to go along with 66 steals, 1046 runs batted in and 1119 runs scored. Always somewhat of an under-the-radar star, Markakis derived much of his value from strong on-base percentages and terrific defense for much of his career — one that was valued at 28.7 wins above replacement by FanGraphs and 34 WAR by Baseball-Reference. Markakis earned more than $120MM over 15 seasons in the big leagues and will be remembered as a beloved member of two franchises.
Pirates Sign Trevor Cahill
The Pirates have made a late addition to their rotation mix, announcing Friday that they’ve signed veteran righty Trevor Cahill to a one-year deal. The JBA Sports client will reportedly be guaranteed $1.5MM and have the opportunity to take home another $1MM via incentives. Those incentives are based on innings pitched and kick in with a $100K bonus for reaching 75 frames. Cahill would also earn $150K for reaching 100 innings, $200K at 125 innings, $250K at 150 innings and $300K at 175 innings.
Cahill received interest from as many 16 teams, Nightengale writes, following a season that saw him post a 3.24 ERA/4.38 SIERA over 25 innings with the Giants. Presumably, based on the terms of his contract, much of that interest was on non-guaranteed deals.
Long a ground-ball specialist, Cahill seemed to change course in 2020, albeit with the caveat of his very small sample size of work. Cahill had only a career-low 33.3% grounder rate, while his K% rocketed to 29.2%, by far the highest of his 12-year career. His Statcast metrics were solid overall, and Cahill continued to deliver his signature elite-level curveball spin.
It was a solid bounce-back outing from a very rough 2019 season that Cahill post a 5.98 ERA/4.95 SIERA over 102 1/3 innings with the Angels. Cahill was bedeviled by a 22.5% home run/fly ball rate that season, but he cut that number down to a much more palatable 12.5% in 2020.
The 33-year-old Cahill worked as both a starter and reliever in San Francisco, and it seems likely that he’ll be ticketed for rotation work in Pittsburgh. Certainly, his incentive structure is geared toward that role. With Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, and Chris Archer all now pitching for other teams, the Pirates have definitely need for some innings-eating arms in the rotation.
Cahill joins fellow newcomer Tyler Anderson alongside Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl, and Steven Brault as the top rotation candidates in Pittsburgh, though this collection could change significantly as the season goes along — whether just by simple attrition, other youngsters stepping up to grab jobs, or the rebuilding Pirates trading more hurlers elsewhere.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links).
2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
Opening Day is three weeks away, and here at MLB Trade Rumors it’s time to look ahead to the 2021-22 free agent class. These players are on track to become free agents after the 2021 season, but a lot can change before we reach that point. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2021-22 open market earning power. You can see the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents here.
It’s worth noting that the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st. With so much uncertainty as to how that will play out and whether there will be a work stoppage, I’m going to mostly set it aside for the purposes of this post.
1. Francisco Lindor. The largest MLB free agent contract ever signed was Bryce Harper‘s 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies two years ago. Meanwhile, the largest extension was the 12-year, $365MM deal signed by Mookie Betts last summer. The highest average annual value was the $36MM achieved by Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole. These are the records Lindor figures to be aiming for if he reaches free agency after a strong 2021 season. A 5-WAR season, which is what projection systems call for, would help fully erase a 2020 campaign that saw the shortstop post a career-worst 102 wRC+ in 266 plate appearances.
Lindor is not the game’s best-hitting shortstop, and might not even belong in the top five. But it is the combination of a quality bat and strong defense that puts him in the conversation for the best overall at his position. As you’ve no doubt heard, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class is exceptional, with eight potential starters at the position. At least half of them are star-caliber.
Lindor’s nickname, Mr. Smile, comes from the impression that he represents “nothing but pure baseball joy,” in the words of Will Leitch. Lindor’s personality will be amplified now that he’s been traded to the big-market Mets. Upon the January 7th trade, there was an assumption by some that the suddenly deep-pocketed Mets would move quickly to sign Lindor to a contract extension. Those talks might be taking place right now, based on this Jon Heyman tweet, and he describes Opening Day as “at least a soft deadline.” By the next installment of these Power Rankings, we should know whether Lindor is likely to reach the open market at age 28. Lindor is represented by SportsMeter.
2. Corey Seager. Born about five months after Lindor, Seager is arguably just as good. Seager finished 9th in the NL MVP voting in the abbreviated 2020 season, and he too is forecasted to post a 5-WAR 2021 season. Seager played beyond that level from 2016-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and was limited to 26 games that year. His 2019 return was more good than great, but then Seager put up a 152 wRC+ in 232 regular season plate appearances in 2020, going on to win both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards. Aside from possibly Fernando Tatis Jr., no shortstop carries a more potent bat than Seager.
Defensively, Seager’s work does not jump off the page, especially that which came after his Tommy John procedure. It stands to reason that Seager may be expected to move to the hot corner at some point during the course of his next contract. For that reason we’ve got him a touch behind Lindor in earning power, but that could change. The Dodgers have the inside track to signing Seager if they want to, and it’s even plausible they could lock him up while dipping back under whatever the base tax threshold is in 2022. Seager is represented by the Boras Corporation.
3. Trevor Bauer. Will Bauer return to the free agent market after a single season with the Dodgers? He’s built the option into his contract. If Bauer opts out of the remaining two years and $64MM, he gets a $2MM buyout, but $20MM of his ’21 salary will be deferred without interest until 2031. So there’s a financial calculation to be made, and locking in more guaranteed money – potentially more than $200MM – could become especially appealing if Bauer pitches at a Cy Young-caliber level for all of 2021. He’ll also be free of the qualifying offer the next time around, though it remains to be seen how that might be adjusted in the next CBA.
The easier choice might be to opt out after 2022, at which point Bauer will have earned $85MM over two seasons and wouldn’t be risking much. Bauer is represented by Luba Sports.
4. Trevor Story. Story’s 13.5 WAR since 2018 has only been bested by Lindor and Xander Bogaerts among shortstops. Still, age is a big factor in free agent earning power, as it affects the number of years teams are willing to give. And Story is a full 22 months older than Carlos Correa. Story is still a young free agent, however, as he’ll play at age 29 in the first year of his next contract.
Story mainly has to contend with Coors Field, in that he has a 141 wRC+ there since 2018 but a 105 mark on the road. It’s not that simple, and many good hitters have seen continued success after leaving Coors. But Story’s earning power may be boosted if the Rockies move him at the July trade deadline and he puts up his customary 120 wRC+ for a new team. Plus, he could potentially shed the qualifying offer with a trade.
Story’s defense likely slots in ahead of Correa and Seager, and he’d beat any fellow free agent in a foot race. As an all-around player, Story is quite valuable and comes with few question marks outside of the Coors Field factor. He’s represented by Excel Sports Management.
5. Carlos Correa. Correa was once mentioned in the same breath as Lindor and Seager for those prognosticating about this free agent class, but his star has dimmed considerably since the Astros won the World Series in 2017. There’s the sign-stealing scandal, in which Correa was a central player. But so too was George Springer, and he was able to land a strong $150MM contract after re-asserting his hitting prowess sans trash cans.
For Correa, the problem is more that since 2017, he’s not been able to post a season in which he was both healthy and an above average hitter. He raked at a 143 wRC+ in 2019, but was limited to 75 games due to a cracked rib and a back injury. He avoided the IL in 2020, but put up a career-worst 98 wRC+ in 221 regular season plate appearances before going nuts for 55 PA in the postseason. So before extending a contract of seven-plus years, teams need to see if Correa can be the 5-WAR player he once was. His defense probably rates somewhere between Lindor and Seager.
Correa has age in his favor, as he’s about five months younger than Seager and 10 months younger than Lindor. Still, he has the widest error bars of anyone on this list, and his 2021 season is crucial. The Astros are at least taking the typical stance of planning to explore an extension. Correa is represented by WME Baseball.
6. Nolan Arenado. Arenado, who was paired with Story on the left side of the Rockies’ infield for five years, has the ability to join him in free agency. It’d require opting out of the remaining five years and $164MM on his deal. To take such a leap, Arenado’s lone season with the Cardinals would have to be reminiscent of his stellar 2015-19 work, rather than the below-average output of his 48-game 2020 campaign. He did play through a shoulder injury for much of the 2020 season. Even with a 5-WAR 2021, Arenado might prefer to stick with the certainty of his current contract rather than chase a sixth guaranteed year. Arenado is represented by Wasserman.
7. Freddie Freeman. Freeman had received MVP votes in five separate seasons prior to 2020, and despite a July COVID positive he went on to win the award. He’s inarguably one of the top eight hitters in baseball right now, and possibly better than that. Freeman signed a record contract extension for his service class back in 2014, which is why he’s scheduled to reach free agency as a 32-year-old. Paying him through age 36 would mean a five-year term. The Athletic’s David O’Brien has made it clear Freeman is highly unlikely to leave the Braves, so perhaps he’ll be surrendering his place on this list before long. Freeman is represented by Excel Sports Management.
8. Kris Bryant. It seems odd to put Bryant this low, as he put up a 4.8 WAR season as recently as 2019. At that point a free agent contract below $200MM would have seemed silly, but Bryant floundered in an injury-marred 2020 season and bears a 3-WAR projection heading into his age-29 campaign. His defensive work at third base rates somewhere around average, and he’s generally held his own in the outfield corners.
It’s possible Bryant peaked early, with a 20.7 WAR total over his first three seasons that placed him on a Hall of Fame trajectory. It’s also possible there are many more 130 wRC+ seasons left in his bat, and he’ll be a cornerstone in someone’s lineup. Despite losing a grievance against the Cubs for manipulating his service time, and more recently enduring trade rumors, Bryant remains open to contract extension offers from the North Siders. He seems more likely to hit the open market following a critical 2021 season. Bryant is represented by the Boras Corporation.
9. Michael Conforto. Conforto is easily one of the 30 best hitters in baseball, and with his recent excellent work a case can be made for top 20. Though the Mets gave him some time in center field in 2017-19, he fits best in a corner. It’s been a while since a non-superstar corner outfielder has landed a six-year deal in free agency, but that figures to be a target for Conforto in light of George Springer’s contract. Interestingly, Mets president Sandy Alderson told reporters recently that one reason the team stopped at five years in the Springer bidding was that going to six would have made it harder to extend Conforto.
Conforto will be a full 29 months younger on Opening Day 2022 than Springer will be this year. So there’s a case to go to a sixth or even seventh year for Conforto, though he’s generally not as center field capable as Springer. As with Lindor, the Mets may look to hammer something out before the season begins. Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation.
10. Clayton Kershaw. Despite a Hall of Fame worthy 13-year career, Kershaw is only about to turn 33 years old. As of last month, though, he was non-committal about even playing in 2022 before later saying he has “a few years left in the tank.” Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman told Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times, “Obviously, it’s personal for him and Ellen, but I feel like all is right in the world if he finishes his career, whenever that is, in however many years, as a Dodger.” As Castillo notes, it would certainly be appealing to Kershaw to play close to home for the Rangers next year.
If it’s only a two-horse race and Kershaw is not likely to chase the money, perhaps his earning power is diminished. But a four-year contract paying him through age 37 wouldn’t be unreasonable, if he wants to play that long. Kershaw may prefer the flexibility of a two or three-year pact. Kershaw is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Honorable mentions
At this point, generally the potential for a $100MM contract gets a player onto this list. I see three more players who could get there: Javier Baez, Max Scherzer, and Noah Syndergaard. Players such as Lance McCullers Jr., Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Dylan Bundy, Anthony Rizzo, and Lance Lynn might comprise the next tier.
Astros’ Forrest Whitley To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
MARCH 10: Manager Dusty Baker announced Wednesday that Whitley will undergo Tommy John surgery, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He’ll miss the entire season as a result.
MARCH 7: Astros pitching prospect Forrest Whitley has been advised to undergo Tommy John surgery, according to Mark Berman of KRIV Fox 26 (Twitter link). Whitley has been battling arm soreness that has now been diagnosed as a right UCL sprain, the team told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link) and other reporters. No decision has yet been made about Whitley’s next step, as the right-hander is seeking a second opinion.
A 14-15 month layoff for TJ rehab would be the biggest setback yet in a career that has been hampered by injuries. Whitley also had an forearm problem last season that led to an early shutdown at the Astros’ alternate training site, and he has been sidelined with shoulder and oblique injuries in past years. Beyond just health woes, Whitley was also issued a 50-game drug suspension in 2018.
Despite all of these issues, Whitley’s potential is still so highly regarded that he has continued to remain a fixture on top-100 prospect lists over the last four years. Selected with the 17th overall pick of the 2016 draft, Whitley is still only 23 years old, as the Astros took the San Antonio native as a high schooler. Between the injuries and the suspension, however, Whitley has thrown only 197 innings as a professional from 2016-19, and just 24 1/3 frames at the Triple-A level. That brief stint at Triple-Round Rock didn’t pan out, as Whitley was torched for a 12.21 ERA with nine home runs allowed.
In the short term, the Astros were hoping Whitley would rebound from his lost season and look good enough to receive consideration for a MLB promotion at some point in 2021. Over the longer term, Whitley was seen as a bridge to the next generation of the Houston rotation, as Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, and Lance McCullers Jr. can all be free agents after the season (and Verlander will already miss all of 2021 due to his own Tommy John procedure). Framber Valdez‘s season may also be in question thanks to a broken finger, which is why the Astros added some veteran stability through at least the 2022 campaign by signing Jake Odorizzi yesterday.
Zack Britton To Undergo Arthroscopic Elbow Surgery
3:50 pm: Britton will undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone chip in his left elbow in the next couple of days, per the team (via Twitter). Britton is expected to be shut down completely for six weeks, and he’s not likely to be back for another 3-4 months, per Andy Martino of the SNY Network (via Twitter). Justin Wilson‘s presence in the bullpen will become all the more important for the Yankees in the first half.
8:38 am: The Yankees sent left-hander Zack Britton for an MRI yesterday after he experienced some discomfort in his left elbow following a bullpen session, manager Aaron Boone revealed to reporters this morning (Twitter link via ESPN’s Marly Rivera). Britton completed his throwing session as normal, but he began experiencing soreness in his elbow later in the day and was sent for imaging. Results are expected today.
Boone declined to speculate on a timeline, merely acknowledging that given the uncertainty, it’s of course possible that Britton won’t be ready for Opening Day. He did indicate that the issue is not believed to be related to Britton’s ulnar collateral ligament at this point (via James Wagner of the New York Times). Boone also noted that Britton was set back in his preparation for camp after contracting Covid-19 within the past couple of months. Britton himself recently told the New York Post’s Dan Martin about that matter, stating that the virus “hit me pretty good” in late January and caused him to lose a substantial amount of weight. The left-hander has not yet appeared in a Spring Training game.
Britton, 33, was outstanding for the Yankees in 2020, holding opponents to just four earned runs on a dozen hits and seven walks with 16 strikeouts through 19 innings of relief. His power sinker again resulted in an elite ground-ball rate (71.7 percent), as has become routine for the two-time All-Star. He went on to allow a pair of runs in 5 1/3 postseason frames.
That performance led the Yankees to exercise a $13MM club option over Britton for the 2022 season at the end of the 2020 campaign. Under the structure of his three-year deal, which covers the 2019-21 seasons, the Yankees had to either pick up that 2022 option a year early or risk Britton opting out of the contract’s third guaranteed year (2021). He’s now locked in as a Yankee through the end of his age-34 season.
Whether Britton is forced to miss time or not, the Yankees still project to have a strong bullpen in 2021. New York traded Adam Ottavino to the Red Sox a couple months back but reallocated much of the cost savings from that deal to low-cost signings of Darren O’Day and Justin Wilson. That pair of veterans will join Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green and ideally, Britton, in forming a strong veteran group to anchor the relief corps.
Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, Brooks Kriske and Nick Nelson are among the other bullpen candidates on the 40-man roster, and the Yankees also brought in veterans Kyle Barraclough, Adam Warren, Tyler Lyons and Nick Goody on minor league pacts. Of course, selecting the contract of any of those non-roster veterans would come with some luxury-tax implications. The Yankees have ardently worked to remain south of the $210MM threshold and currently sit an estimated $3.5MM shy of that point, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.
Astros Sign Jake Odorizzi
The Astros have added the top player remaining in free agency, announcing an agreement with righty Jake Odorizzi. The deal is a two-year pact with a player option for the 2023 season. Odorizzi is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Odorizzi is guaranteed $23.5MM. That takes the form of a $6MM signing bonus, a $6MM salary in 2021, a $5MM salary in 2022, and a $6.5MM player option for 2023. The option comes with a $3.25MM buyout. Performance escalators can max the option out at $12.5MM while also bringing the potential buyout figure up to $6.25MM. Combining to make 30 appearances from 2021-22 will bring Odorizzi to just shy of $24MM over those two seasons in salary, while incentives could push the deal up to $30MM.
On top of the $5MM base salary for the 2022 season, Odorizzi would make $500K for reaching 100 innings pitched, $1MM apiece for throwing 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 innings, with another $1.25MM if he reaches the 160 inning mark. The deal also contains some deferred money.
The addition of the player option is an obvious method of spreading out the contract’s luxury tax hit, similar to the Yankees’ recent agreements with Brett Gardner and Darren O’Day. With just a $3.25MM difference between the value of the option and the buyout, it’s highly unlikely Odorizzi exercises it two years from now. However, the player option pushes the contract’s guaranteed money out to three years, while still giving Odorizzi the chance to re-test free agency after 2022. That lowers the deal’s average annual value (which determines the luxury tax calculation) to a modest $7.83MM. Altogether, that brings the Astros’ CBT ledger for 2021 to around $203.6MM, per Cot’s Contracts. That keeps them barely below the $210MM tax threshold, albeit without leaving much room to make in-season additions without cutting payroll elsewhere on the roster if they’re adamant about not going over.
Moreso than paying additional dollars, the Astros’ bigger concern about the luxury tax may be more related to the draft-pick compensation penalties attached to teams that go over the CBT, as the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently noted. With McCullers, Carlos Correa, and possibly Justin Verlander all in line to receive qualifying offers next winter, the Astros may be planning to reload their farm system with extra compensatory picks should these players all reject a QO and sign elsewhere. Houston would also have to surrender a higher amount of draft and international signing bonus capital for signing a free agent who rejected a QO from another club.
Reports surfaced last week about Houston’s interest in Odorizzi, which seemed natural considering that Framber Valdez is in danger of missing the entire 2021 season after suffering a fractured ring finger on his throwing hand. While nothing has been decided about Valdez’s status just yet, Odorizzi’s addition will help reinforce an Astros rotation that also includes Zack Greinke, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and Cristian Javier. More inexperienced options like Luis Garcia and Brandon Bielak will now project as Triple-A depth rather than be called upon to immediately contribute at the big league level.
Odorizzi doesn’t quite fit the Astros’ usual model of pitching acquisition, as he lacks the big spin rates that Houston has often favored in recent years. It could be that the need to replace Valdez put Odorizzi on the team’s radar, and Astros GM James Click is quite familiar with Odorizzi from their time together in the Rays organization. Houston will be gaining a veteran arm who has a track record of eating innings, though Odorizzi did pitch only 13 2/3 frames with the Twins in 2020 due to a series of minor injuries.
Blister problems, a ribcage strain, and being struck in the chest by a line drive resulted in three separate injured list stints for Odorizzi, bringing a sour end to what had been a pretty successful tenure in Minnesota. Odorizzi posted a 4.01 ERA and an above-average 24.83K% over 323 1/3 innings in 2018-19, and chose to return to the Twin Cities in 2020 after accepting the team’s $17.8MM qualifying offer.
This decision to bet on himself didn’t entirely work out, as a more typical Odorizzi season in 2020 would have likely resulted in a longer and more lucrative free agent deal for the hurler (who turns 31 later this month). With Odorizzi having control over his fate for the 2023 season, he ended up technically receiving the three-year contract he hoped to receive for much of the winter, though it took him almost a week into March to finally land the contract.
MLBTR ranked Odorizzi 11th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting him for a three-year, $39MM deal. The Twins, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays were among the many teams who had some level of interest in Odorizzi over the course of the offseason, with clubs joining and departing the hunt depending on other transactions.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan initially reported the sides had an agreement on a two-year contract with a 2023 player option. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first with the contract structure. Odorizzi’s former teammate, Trevor Plouffe, provided a breakdown of the incentive structure for the 2022 season. Jon Heyman of MLB Network was first to note the deferrals.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Brewers Sign Jackie Bradley Jr.
TODAY: The Brewers officially announced Bradley’s deal. To create roster space, utilityman Tim Lopes (oblique) has been moved to the 60-day injured list.
MARCH 4, 1:05pm: Bradley’s 2021 salary is $13MM, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He’ll earn $11MM in 2022 if he declines to opt out.
10:45am: Some of Bradley’s salary is deferred, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
As to the defensive alignment with Bradley in the fold, Brewers manager Craig Counsell spoke to reporters today and firmly indicated that Cain is the team’s center fielder (Twitter links via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Counsell wouldn’t mention Bradley directly, as his deal has yet to be formally announced, but he said his club doesn’t “…have any fourth outfielders. We have a lot of starting outfielders and we have to figure out how that works. But there’s playing time, absolutely.”
7:08am: The Brewers and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. are in agreement on a two-year, $24MM contract, reports Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe. The second year on that deal is a player option, so Bradley will have the opportunity to return to the open market next winter if he performs well during his first season in Milwaukee. Bradley is represented by the Boras Corporation.
It’s the second major free-agent signing for the Brewers this winter and the second that provides the team with a huge defensive upgrade. Milwaukee also inked former division rival Kolten Wong, arguably the game’s premier defender at second base, on a two-year deal that guarantees him $18MM.
Bradley, 31 in April, figures to slide into the outfield alongside Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. His acquisition could push Avisail Garcia, who struggled in 2020 during the first season of a two-year contract of his own, into a lesser role. It appears quite unlikely that there’ll be a universal designated hitter in 2021 at this point, but Garcia could still work as a DH during interleague games at American League parks. He could also slot into the mix against tough lefties and spell any of the other three on a given day.
Cain, meanwhile, carries a sterling defensive reputation much like Bradley, but he’ll turn 35 the same week Bradley turns 31. The Brewers could turn center field over to the younger of the two and slide Cain, who opted out of the 2020 season after just five games last year, into a less demanding corner outfield spot.
Prior to their deal with Bradley, the Brewers didn’t have much in the way of proven outfield depth in the event that a starting outfielder went down with an injury. The only other outfielders on the 40-man roster were Tyrone Taylor, Corey Ray and a trio of offseason DFA pickups: Billy McKinney, Derek Fisher and Tim Lopes. Bringing Bradley into the mix now gives them cover for a potential injury and allows them to rest Cain (returning at 35 after opting out of 2020) and Yelich (major knee injury at the end of 2019) with more regularity. More broadly speaking, the signing also simply improves both the defense and the lineup.
Detractors may brush aside the notion that Bradley can help to improve Milwaukee’s offense, but over the past six seasons he’s batted .247/.331/.438 — good for a slightly above-average 102 wRC+ and 101 OPS+. That line includes a .283/.364/.450 showing through 217 plate appearances last year. Bradley struggled in 2019 as his strikeout rate spiked to an unpalatable 27.3 percent, but he cut that mark by more than five percent last season in a rebound effort during the shortened campaign.
Bradley shouldn’t be problematic from a payroll standpoint, as the Brewers had been set for a decrease from their 2019-20 spending levels prior to the deal. The new agreement will take them to $105MM if the contract is evenly distributed and a bit more if the deal is front-loaded (which, speculatively speaking, seems likely). Either way, they’ll still be well shy of 2019’s franchise-record $122.5MM Opening Day mark.
The Bradley deal, in many regards, is reminiscent of Milwaukee’s surprise agreement with catcher Yasmani Grandal in the 2018-19 offseason. Grandal, like Bradley, was an elite defender at a premium position who didn’t find long-term offers to his liking and instead bet on himself by signing a one-year deal at a higher annual rate with the Brewers. Bradley’s deal doesn’t match Grandal’s $18.25MM guarantee (although it could afford him more than $12MM depending on the structure), but it gives him a nice safety net with the player option in the event that he struggles in 2021 or deals with a notable injury.
Aside from the Cardinals’ blockbuster acquisition of Nolan Arenado, it’s been a rather quiet offseason in the NL Central. The Cubs have made a handful of small-scale, one-year additions — but only after trading away Yu Darvish — while the Reds and Pirates have been mostly idle. Late agreements with Bradley, Wong and lefty Brett Anderson don’t make the Brewers a clear favorite even in a potentially lackluster division, but they certainly improve what looks to be a competitive club. And given the current payroll level and this front office regime’s penchant for late-offseason value plays, it’d be unwise to completely rule out any further additions.
Surgery Recommended For Framber Valdez
March 4: The initial recommendation for treatment of Valdez’s injury is surgery, tweets Heyman. The recovery time on the recommended operation would be sizable enough that there’s concern the left-hander could miss the entire season, Heyman adds.
That’d register as a surprise, although we don’t know the extent of the fracture at this point or whether the imaging performed after that initial announcement revealed any additional damage. The club is still seeking further opinions.
March 3, 12:10pm: Valdez has been diagnosed with a fractured left ring finger, general manager James Click announced to reporters (Twitter link via FOX 26’s Mark Berman). There’s no timetable for his return yet, as he’s slated for additional tests and imaging.
11:58am: Astros lefty Framber Valdez is dealing with a finger injury, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports. The amount of time he’s expected to miss isn’t clear, as he’s still being evaluated by doctors, but Heyman adds that it’s believed to be “serious” and is expected to keep him out of action for awhile. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that Valdez took a Francisco Lindor grounder off the hand during yesterday’s outing, though he pitched another inning after doing so.
An absence of any length for Valdez would be a tough hit for the Astros, who are already unlikely to get much of anything from Justin Verlander in 2021 after he underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Valdez stepped up in Verlander’s absence and played a huge part in Houston’s playoff run, breaking out with 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA ball over the course of 11 appearances. The 27-year-old completed at least seven innings on six occasions and completed six frames in nine of his 11 outings.
Fielding-independent metrics suggest that Valdez’s 2020 breakout was even better than reflected in his ERA. Valdez’s 60 percent ground-ball rate was one of the best in the game, and his 26.4 percent strikeout rate and 5.6 percent walk rate were both markedly better than the league average. The lefty’s 2.85 FIP and 3.23 SIERA both suggest that his 2020 success was far from a fluke.
For the Astros, Valdez is expected to slot into the rotation’s top three alongside Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier. It’s a solid-looking group thanks to surprise showings from both Valdez and Javier in 2020, but the depth beyond that quintet lacks big league experience and/or success. Their most experienced options, Josh James and Austin Pruitt, are both on the mend from surgery. James had hip surgery in late October, which came with a six to eight month recovery period. Pruitt had elbow surgery in September and, as of January, was not expected to be ready for Opening Day.
Righty Brandon Bielak was hit hard in 12 appearances last year (six starts, six relief outings), and righties Luis Garcia and Bryan Abreu both have fewer than 15 MLB frames under their belts. Garcia did get the ball in a playoff game, but that was largely out of necessity. Prior to 2020, he’d yet to even pitch in Double-A.
Meanwhile, Tyler Ivey and Nivaldo Rodriguez are both on the 40-man roster, but Ivey has yet to pitch in the big leagues and Rodriguez only tossed eight innings of relief in 2020. Prospect Forrest Whitley is also on the 40-man, and he’s still considered a Top 100 farmhand even if his stock has tumbled over the past two years. Former Red Sox swingman Hector Velazquez is in camp as a non-roster player, but the Astros historically haven’t brought in many veterans on non-guaranteed deals and that’s again the case in 2021.