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Derek Jeter, Larry Walker Elected To Hall Of Fame

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Derek Jeter and Larry Walker have been inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Tuesday evening. Jeter, predictably, has been enshrined in his first year of eligibility. However, the longtime Yankees shortstop was not unanimously elected, as he was omitted from one lone ballot. Walker, meanwhile, has at last reached the 75 percent vote threshold in his 10th and final season of eligibility on the BBWAA ballot. He appeared on 76.6 percent of this year’s ballots.

Among notable misses, Curt Schilling saw another increase, appearing on 70 percent of this year’s ballots — up from 60.9 percent in last year’s balloting. Roger Clemens (61 percent), Barry Bonds (60.7 percent) and Omar Vizquel (52.6 percent) were the only others to secure a vote on even half of this year’s ballots. That marks a bit more than a one percent increase for both Clemens and Bonds but represents a notable jump up from 42.8 percent for Vizquel.

There was never a shred of doubt that Jeter, a former AL Rookie of the Year, five-time World Series champion, five-time Gold Glover, five-time Silver Slugger and 14-time All-Star would be enshrined in Cooperstown. The 45-year-old, now the CEO of the Miami Marlins, played in 20 Major League seasons and compiled a .310/.377/.440 batting line along the way.

In that time, Jeter racked up 3465 hits, scored 1923 runs, knocked in 1311 men, clubbed 260 home runs and swiped 358 bases. Those 3465 hits rank Jeter sixth in Major League history, trailing only Pete Rose, Ty Cobb, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial and Tris Speaker. Jeter also ranks 11th all-time in runs scored and 35th in doubles (544).

Of course, Jeter is known every bit as much for his postseason excellence as his regular-season dominance. He appeared in an incredible 158 postseason games and tallied 734 plate appearances in that time, hitting .308/.374/.465 with 20 home runs, 32 doubles and five triples. Jeter was named the MVP of the 2000 World Series after he went 9-for-22 with two homers, two doubles and a triple to lead the Yankees past the Mets. His 2001 postseason is arguably even more memorable, however, as it was in the ALDS against the Athletics that Jeter’s heady “flip play” was a pivotal moment, and his iconic walk-off home run against the D-backs in Game 4 of the World Series earned him the nickname “Mr. November.”

In all, Jeter’s brilliant regular-season career was valued by Baseball-Reference.com at 72.4 wins above replacement. FanGraphs pegged him at an even 73 WAR. Coupled with his legendary postseason track record, that made Jeter among the most obvious Hall of Famers in recent balloting history — although it’s nevertheless a shocking to see him omitted from a ballot. Once Jeter’s longtime teammate, Mariano Rivera, finally set the precedent for unanimous enshrinement, the expectation had been that others would follow. Perhaps that’ll still be the case, but Jeter was clearly a worthy recipient of such an honor and still fell shy by the slightest of margins.

Turning to Walker, the longtime Rockies and Expos star might’ve been voted in years ago were it not for many voters taking his stats with a grain of salt thanks to the hitter-friendly nature of Coors Field, where he played his home games from 1995-2004. It’s become increasingly difficult to vote against Walker, however. The Canadian-born superstar’s list of accolades certainly feel Cooperstown-worthy.

The National League MVP in 1997, Walker is a seven-time Gold Glover, three-time Silver Slugger and three-time batting champ. Many feel that he was a frequent All-Star snub — only appearing in the Midsummer Classic on five occasions — but Walker’s production arguably speaks even louder than his awards history. In 8030 plate appearances over the life of 17 MLB seasons, Walker hit .313/.400/.565 with 383 home runs, 1355 runs scored, 1311 runs batted in and 230 stolen bases.

Beyond his three batting titles, Walker twice led the Senior Circuit in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. That outstanding slash line translates to a tremendous 141 OPS+ and 140 wRC+, suggesting that the ultra-consistent Walker’s bat was about 40 percent better than that of a league-average hitter over the course of his career. Even at the end of his career, in his age-37 and age-38 seasons with the Cardinals, Walker’s .286/.387/.520 slash was nothing short of brilliant. Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR put Walker right alongside Jeter (72.7), while FanGraphs valued his career at 68.7 WAR.

Both Jeter and Walker are highly deserving of the honor they’ll receive this July when they take their place alongside the elite and entrench themselves in the annals of baseball’s history. Congratulations to the game’s two newest Hall of Famers.

Rockies GM Jeff Bridich Says Nolan Arenado Won’t Be Traded

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Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has all but shut the door on a potential offseason trade involving star third baseman Nolan Arenado, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Per Bridich, the Rockies “have listened to teams regarding Nolan and really nothing has come of it.”

Accordingly, he said, the club is “going to move forward pretty much as we expected — with Nolan in the purple and black and as our third baseman.” If there was any uncertainty in that phrasing, Bridich seemingly covered it with an additional statement (which doubles as an exhortation to the fans and media): “So we can put this to bed and collectively look forward to the upcoming season and work toward that.”

This is about as much finality as one can reasonably expect to hear from an executive regarding a run of trade rumors — though there is one rather memorable example that went a bit further. In theory, perhaps, the situation could yet change. Bridich indicates that the Rockies didn’t hear anything enticing from rival organizations, but it’s always possible the offers could increase.

Even if there’s some hypothetical possibility of a revival of offseason talks, it seems the bar is now raised rather substantially for a deal. The Rockies surely (and understandably) wish to avoid major uncertainty in the run-up to Spring Training. And now their top baseball executive has very nearly promised that the club’s biggest star will be in Colorado for 2020.

The Rangers, Cardinals, Braves, and others were connected to Arenado at various points in time. It was never clear that talks advanced beyond preliminary stages. While Bridich’s comments confirm that some discussions occurred, it’s fair to wonder whether the smoke really suited the fire.

On paper, it never seemed especially likely Arenado would be moved unless the Rox decided they simply had to move his contract off the books. He’s slated to earn $234MM over seven seasons, which is a fair rate for a player of his abilities and age. But Arenado will have an opt-out opportunity after two seasons, thus limiting the upside. There just isn’t a huge amount of anticipated surplus value in the contract. On the Rockies’ side, meanwhile, it would’ve been hard to part with such a central player unless significant talent came back in return — even given the obvious roster challenges facing the club this winter.

Braves To Sign Felix Hernandez

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The Braves have inked former star hurler Felix Hernandez to a minor-league deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It includes an invitation to MLB camp and a possible $1MM salary in the majors.

Once dubbed “King Felix,” the 33-year-old hurler was relieved of his crown in Seattle when the Mariners bid adieu after 15 memorable seasons. For most of those, Hernandez was somewhere between good and great. In seven seasons from 2009 through 2015, he notched six top-ten Cy Young appearances. He won the award in 2010.

Hernandez broke into the majors in his age-19 season, so it always seemed he’d have a chance at an exceedingly lengthy and productive career. The M’s gambled on just that premise with a then-record contract back in 2013. But his early thirties have not been kind. Since the start of the 2017 campaign, Hernandez has thrown 314 innings of 5.42 ERA ball. He’s averaging a pedestrian 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 1.7 HR/9 in that span.

The struggles reached new heights in 2019, as Hernandez limped through 15 starts with a 6.40 ERA. He averaged only about 90 mph with his four and two-seam fastballs, while his long-vaunted changeup graded as a liability. Hernandez allowed a 91.4 mph average exit velocity, one of the worst marks in baseball, with opposing hitters turning in a hefty .378 wOBA that was supported by the quality of contact (.371 xwOBA).

So, is there anything left? The Braves aim to find out, though they haven’t staked a ton on the possibility. Hernandez will be given a shot at showing his form in camp, where he’ll join Sean Newcomb and a slew of other candidates doing battle for the fifth rotation slot. It’s still possible the Atlanta organization will make a trade that alters the dynamic. But if not, we’ll all be watching to see whether Hernandez can regain his royal standing — if not as monarch, then perhaps at least as some lesser duke.

Padres Re-Sign Craig Stammen

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JANUARY 17: The Padres have announced the deal.

JANUARY 4: The Padres have agreed to a multi-year contract with free-agent righty Craig Stammen, reports Robert Murray. It’s a two-year deal that will guarantee Stammen $9MM through the 2021 season with a team option for a third year, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. If exercised, that $4MM option would raise Stammen’s earnings to a total of $12MM over three years—otherwise, he’ll collect a $1MM buyout. The deal, pending a physical, also includes $500K in yearly incentives (Twitter link), bringing the overall potential payout to $13.5MM. Stammen is represented by Paragon Sports International.

Stammen, 35, has spent the last three seasons with San Diego and has been an indispensable piece in a solid bullpen unit, with the Padres relying heavily on his right arm in the late innings: his 241 1/3 innings pitched since 2017 are the second most among all relievers during that span, with only Yusmeiro Petit pitching more in relief.

Not only has he been durable, but Stammen has quietly been one of the best bullpen arms in baseball since joining the Padres, posting a 3.06 ERA with the team; Fangraphs’ WAR metric ranks him as the 36th-best reliever over the last three years. He has served as a stellar second fiddle to relief ace Kirby Yates, with the pair anchoring a bullpen that was among the best in the National League in 2019.

Last year, Stammen notched a 3.29 ERA (4.12 FIP) in 82 innings for the Friars, striking out 73 batters and walking just 15. He’s proven to excel at preventing bases on balls, but he’s had some trouble preventing home runs, with opponents averaging 1.4 HR/9 against him. Not surprisingly, his best season came in 2018 when he allowed just three homers all year, but that was buoyed by a perhaps abnormally low 4.9% HR/FB rate.

The San Diego bullpen looks to once again receive top marks in 2020, with Stammen and Yates returning and free-agent signee Drew Pomeranz adding a solid lefty to the late-inning blueprint. There are a couple of wild cards in the mix, but the likes of Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm, and Andres Muñoz have the potential to alleviate the workload of the high-leverage arms. If the offense, bolstered by Tommy Pham and (fingers crossed) a full year of Fernando Tatis Jr., can take a leap forward, one hopes that the likes of Yates and Stammen will more often be put in a winning position.

Stammen will play the 2020 season at age 36, so while he will no doubt remain a key cog in that San Diego ’pen, it’s reasonable to expect a slightly lighter workload for the veteran moving forward. He missed nearly all of 2015 with an elbow injury, but he’s quelled any lingering concerns about his durability with a weighty role in recent years. His new contract falls right about in line with the two-year, $10MM deal MLBTR projected for Stammen at the beginning of the offseason, and he’ll of course have the chance to tack on another year if he can keep up his current production.

Carlos Beltran Out As Mets’ Manager

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8:13pm: Beltran will not receive any of the approximately $3MM owed to him over the course of his three-year deal with the Mets, the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff reports.  The team has instead made a $200K donation to Beltran’s charitable foundation.

12:25pm: The Mets have formally announced Beltran’s ousting. COO Jeff Wilpon and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen issued the following statement:

We met with Carlos last night and again this morning and agreed to mutually part ways. This was not an easy decision. Considering the circumstances, it became clear to all parties that it was not in anyone’s best interest for Carlos to move forward as Manager of the New York Mets. We believe that Carlos was honest and forthcoming with us. We are confident that this will not be the final chapter in his baseball career. We remain excited about the talent on this team and are committed to reaching our goals of winning now and in the future.

12:07pm: Carlos Beltran’s time as manager of the Mets will apparently come to a close before he even suits up for a game. Yahoo’s Tim Brown reports (via Twitter) that Beltran has informed the Mets he feels it is best if he steps down.

Beltran was named in commissioner Rob Manfred’s report on the findings of his investigation into the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme earlier this week. While Beltran was a player at the time and wasn’t expected to be disciplined by the league as a result, reports over the past 24 hours have indicated that the Mets have been mulling his future in light of his connection to the scandal.

Whether the decision truly rested with Beltran or whether the wording of the reports (and, presumably, the forthcoming announcement) was structured in a way to allow Beltran to save face to some extent isn’t known at this time. Regardless, his ousting as manager now means that every person listed in Manfred’s Astros report — Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, Astros manager A.J. Hinch, Red Sox manager Alex Cora (formerly Houston’s bench coach) and Beltran — have now lost their jobs in the wake of a scandal that has increasingly shaken Major League Baseball as a whole.

It’s worth emphasizing that The Athletic’s report that broke the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal wide open was published two weeks after Beltran was named Mets manager. As such, there’s no reason to believe that Beltran was asked about the scandal during the interview process — let alone any reason to believe that he was untruthful with the Mets during interviews. That said, Beltran did tell the New York Post’s Joel Sherman shortly after the scandal was brought to public light that he was “not aware of that camera,” denying any improper utilization of technology.

Two months later, Manfred’s report indicated the following: “Approximately two months into the 2017 season, a group of players, including Carlos Beltrán, discussed that the team could improve on decoding opposing teams’ signs and communicating the signs to the batter.”

The Mets, incredibly, are now the third team seeking a new manager in mid-January. They’ll likely interview a mix of internal and external candidates, and it’s worth noting that the club did interview bench coach Hensley Meulens and quality control coach Luis Rojas in its initial search following the firing of Mickey Callaway. While other clubs throughout the league might be less inclined to allow members of their coaching staff to interview now that Spring Training looms in the near future, ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez was also reported to be a leading candidate in New York’s most recent search. One would imagine that he could once again factor prominently into the club’s hunt for a skipper.

Giants Sign Drew Smyly

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4:16PM: Baggarly has the full breakdown (Twitter link) of Smyly’s available bonuses, including the note that Smyly can receive his $250K roster bonus if he spends 130 days on the active roster, not only if he makes the Giants’ Opening Day roster.  Up to $3MM in incentives are available to Smyly based on the number of starts he makes, with at least 12 starts required to unlock his bonuses.  $1MM in bonus money is available to Smyly as a reliever — $250K for 25 games finished and another $250K for 35 games finished, and $125K for reaching the 45-, 50-, 55-, and 60-game thresholds in terms of relief appearances.

2:55PM: Smyly will earn $4MM in guaranteed money, The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly tweets, and can also receive a $250K roster bonus.  More bonus money is available based on the number of starts Smyly makes, and also (intriguingly) the number of games he finishes, though Baggarly notes that the Giants plan to use Smyly as a starting pitcher.

1:12PM: The Giants have signed left-hander Drew Smyly, as per an announcement on the team’s Twitter feed.  Smyly, a Frontline client, has been signed to a one-year contract.  Righty Trevor Oaks has been designated for assignment to create space on San Francisco’s roster.

Smyly becomes the second veteran pitching addition of the winter for the Giants, who also inked Kevin Gausman to a one-year deal back in December.  The Giants’ rotation mix now consists of Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Gausman as the top three, with Smyly, Tyler Anderson, and younger arms such as Logan Webb, Dereck Rodriguez, Tyler Beede, and Shaun Anderson all vying for starts.

Smyly is the most experienced of the latter bunch with 684 1/3 Major League innings to his name, though the 30-year-old spent 2019 just trying to shake off the rust after missing all of the 2017-18 seasons due to Tommy John surgery.  The southpaw posted an 8.42 ERA over 51 1/3 innings with the Rangers before being released, and then briefly caught on with the Brewers and Phillies on minor league contracts.

It was in Philadelphia that Smyly again appeared on a big league mound and somewhat stabilized his performance, posting a 4.45 ERA, 9.8 K/9, and 3.24 K/BB rate over 62 2/3 innings (over 12 starts).  Smyly drastically reduced his walks and homers over the course of the season, though his 1.9 HR/9 as a Phillie was still troublingly high, if an improvement over his ungainly 3.2 HR/9 in Texas.  To say nothing of possible changes to the baseball for the 2020 season, a move to a more pitcher-friendly environment like Oracle Park should help Smyly keep his home run issues in check.

Now more than two and a half years removed from his Tommy John procedure, Smyly will be looking to get what was once a quite promising career back on track.  Smyly posted a 3.24 ERA over his first 395 MLB innings from 2012-15 with the Tigers and Rays, and was a major part of the trade package sent to Tampa Bay for David Price in the summer of 2014.  After a somewhat shaky 2016 campaign, however, Smyly was traded from the Rays to the Mariners in the 2016-17 offseason, and ended up never throwing a pitch in a Seattle uniform due to injury.

The Giants’ offseason has been a pretty quiet one, as the team continues to straddle the line between a rebuild and a full push towards contention.  The Smyly signing fits the pattern of short-term, fairly inexpensive signings that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has focused on (as well as a blizzard of waiver claims) since taking over San Francisco’s front office last winter.  A bounce-back year from Smyly could make him a candidate to be flipped elsewhere at the trade deadline.

Oaks (who turns 27 in March) was claimed off waivers from the Royals in November.  The groundball specialist made his MLB debut with 13 2/3 innings for Kansas City in 2018, though hip surgery sidelined him for the entire 2019 season.  Oaks has a 3.26 ERA, 6.1 K/9, and 3.12 K/BB rate over 532 1/3 career minor league innings, starting 88 of 102 games.

Phillies Outright Odubel Herrera To Triple-A, Claim Nick Martini

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TODAY: Herrera has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A, the Phillies announced.

JANUARY 14: The Phillies announced Tuesday that center fielder Odubel Herrera has been designated for assignment. His 40-man roster spot will go to Nick Martini, whom the Phillies have claimed off waivers from the Reds.

Not long ago, such a move would’ve been unthinkable for the Phils, who extended Herrera on a five-year, $30.5MM deal spanning the 2017-21 seasons. However, Herrera sat out the the final 85 games of the 2019 season under a domestic violence suspension, and even when he was on the field in 2019, he failed to produce at the plate or with the glove. After batting .281/.325/.452 and drawing strong defensive marks across the board as recently as 2017, Herrera turned in an awful .222/.288/.341 line in 2019 with below-average marks from Ultimate Zone Rating, Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

While Herrera has played poorly in each of the past two seasons, he might well have been given another chance in 2020 were it not for the charges levied against him and the subsequent suspension. He’s still owed a hefty $19.5MM under that aforementioned extension, but the Phils are apparently willing to eat the remainder of that contract to cut ties with Herrera.

During Herrera’s absence, he was surpassed on the depth chart by former No. 8 overall pick Adam Haseley, who debuted with a .266/.324/.396 slash line and plus defensive ratings (per DRS, UZR and OAA) — all of which look to be improvements over Herrera’s 2018-19 play. The Phils could yet look to add a platoon partner for the left-handed-hitting Haseley, or they could play the versatile Scott Kingery in center field against tough lefties. Speedy Roman Quinn remains on hand as an option as well, and he’ll surely make the club given that he’s out of minor league options.

Martini himself will give the Phils another option at any of the three outfield spots, as he has at least 1900 minor league innings in left, center and right field. The left-handed-hitting Martini has been a veritable on-base machine in the upper minors, hitting at a robust .305/.401/.435 clip in parts of five Triple-A seasons.

While he doesn’t hit for much power, Martini has walked in 13.5 percent of his career plate appearances in Triple-A. That general profile has carried over to the big leagues, where in 288 plate appearances between the Padres and A’s, Martini has slashed .269/.372/.380. He still has a minor league option remaining, so Martini will give the Phillies some roster flexibility in addition to his intriguing on-base prowess.

The Phillies will have a week to trade Herrera, put him on outright waivers or release him. It’s likely that they’ve tried and failed to find a taker for his services prior to designating him for assignment, though, and he’ll surely go unclaimed on waivers. He doesn’t yet have five years of MLB service, so while he could reject an outright assignment, doing so would mean forfeiting the remainder of his contract, which obviously won’t happen. If the Phils wish to retain him, they could outright him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. If not, the likeliest outcome is that they’ll simply release Herrera, at which point any club would be able to sign him for the league minimum (which would be subtracted from the sum owed to him by the Phillies). Whether he’d even draw interest at that minimal level of commitment remains to be seen, however.

Red Sox Fire Alex Cora

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The Red Sox announced Tuesday evening that manager Alex Cora will not return as their manager in 2020. The news comes one day after MLB commissioner Rob Manfred announced the results of his investigation into the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, wherein Cora was revealed to be one of the architects of Houston’s trash-can system. The Red Sox organization issued the following statement:

Today we met to discuss the Commissioner’s report related to the Houston Astros investigation.  Given the findings and the Commissioner’s ruling, we collectively decided that it would not be possible for Alex to effectively lead the club going forward and we mutually agreed to part ways.

The Red Sox’ usage of “mutually agreed to part ways” notwithstanding, there’s no way that Cora would’ve been ousted as manager were it not for his role in the sign-stealing scandal. It’s been extraordinarily difficult to fathom a scenario in which Cora would’ve stayed on as manager after Houston GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch were fired by the Astros yesterday, given his involvement in the Astros’ scandal as well as the current investigation of the Red Sox’ 2018 . The now-former manager issued a statement of his own:

“I want to thank John, Tom, Sam, the players, our coaching staff and the entire Red Sox organization.  I especially want to thank my family for their love and support. We agreed today that parting ways was the best thing for the organization. I do not want to be a distraction to the Red Sox as they move forward.  My two years as manager were the best years of my life. It was an honor to manage these teams and help bring a World Series Championship back to Boston. I will forever be indebted to the organization and the fans who supported me as a player, a manager and in my efforts to help Puerto Rico. This is a special place. There is nothing like it in all of baseball, and I will miss it dearly.”

As was the case when Houston let go of its GM-manager tandem, this represents a stunning turn of mid-winter events for Boston. In terms of wins and losses, the two-year Cora era was especially fruitful for the Red Sox. As Cora mentioned, he helped the club to a championship in 2018 – his first year on the job and one in which it piled up a whopping 108 regular-season victories before steamrolling the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers in the playoffs. Of course, now that the league’s investigating Cora, there are perhaps questions about the legitimacy of that title.

Last season was far less successful for Cora and the Red Sox, though they were still an above-average team that won 84 games. Now, depending on how MLB disciplines Cora, that could go down as his final season as a manager in the league. Cora’s reportedly facing “harsh” punishment for his misdeeds, so the end of his Red Sox tenure seems likely to serve as a forerunner to a significant suspension.

The Boston organization, like Houston, now finds itself in the once-unimaginable position of suddenly having to find a new manager just weeks before pitchers and catchers report to camp. The responsibility rests with new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who inherited Cora from ousted president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

This post was originally published on 1-14-20.

Check out our new video below (app users click here), as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd lays out the implications of Cora’s dismissal as well as the Twins’ signing of Josh Donaldson.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nationals Re-Sign Daniel Hudson

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JANUARY 14: The Nats have announced the signing.

JANUARY 6, 3:29pm: The deal’s worth $11MM with up to $1MM in performance bonuses based on games finished, per Passan. The total falls in line with the two-year, $12MM guarantee MLBTR projected for Hudson at the beginning of the offseason.

2:17pm: The Nationals and free-agent reliever Daniel Hudson have reached a two-year contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the two sides were nearing an agreement. Hudson is a client of Jet Sports Management.

This is the second significant bullpen signing in a matter of days for the Nationals. They added righty Will Harris on a three-year, $24MM commitment last week, and signing him and Hudson shows a desire on the team’s part to avoid last season’s well-publicized bullpen foibles. The Nationals’ relief corps was a major problem throughout the season, but they still earned a wild-card spot and then rallied to win their first-ever World Series title. Hudson, whom general manager Mike Rizzo acquired from the Blue Jays before the July 31 deadline, was a key reason for Washington’s triumph.

Between Toronto and D.C. a season ago, the flamethrowing Hudson, 32, put up a 2.47 ERA/3.97 FIP with 8.75 K/9 and 3.33 BB/9 over 73 innings. For the most part, those aren’t great numbers, and Hudson hasn’t been lights-out for the majority of his career, but he was an important part of the Nats’ playoff run. Hudson converted all four of his save attempts in the postseason, in which he threw 9 2/3 frames of four-earned run ball with 10 strikeouts against four walks, and closed out the Astros in Game 7 of the World Series.

While the Nationals did lose star third baseman Anthony Rendon to the Angels earlier this offseason, the Hudson re-signing continues a busy winter for the club. Before bringing back Hudson, they picked up Harris and re-signed four important members of their title-winning team in starter Stephen Strasburg, infielders Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera, and catcher Yan Gomes. The team also agreed to sign established infielder Starlin Castro last week, and it could still be in the running for the No. 1 free agent available in third baseman Josh Donaldson.

An ideal offseason for the Nationals likely would’ve meant keeping Rendon. Even in the wake of his departure, though, it’s clear this isn’t a club that’s ready to rest on its laurels after a championship season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Extend Miguel Sano

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JANUARY 14: The Minnesota organization has now announced the deal.

JANUARY 10: The Twins have inked third baseman Miguel Sano to a three-year extension, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The deal guarantees Sano $30MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That includes a $3MM buyout on a 2023 option, which is priced at $14MM. Sano is a client of the Cobb Eddy Sports Group.

Sano entered the offseason in the 4+ service class. Rather than a second trip through the arbitration process — he had been projected to take home a $5.9MM contract — Sano will lock in his final two arb-eligible campaigns while giving the Minnesota organization control over two would-be free-agent seasons.

While there’s some upside to be gained for organization, it’s also a notable vote of confidence in the 26-year-old slugger. Long lauded as a major talent, Sano broke into the league in a big way and was generally very productive with the bat over his first three seasons in the majors. But he literally and figuratively limped through a miserable 2018 season. After an offseason of work created a sense of optimism, Sano was then slowed at the start of 2019 due to an Achilles injury. When he finally returned to action last spring, it was far from clear what to expect.

As it turned out, Sano turned in his most productive offensive run since his rookie showing back in 2015. Over 439 plate appearances, he slashed .247/.346/.576 and socked 34 long balls. Statcast figures gave ample cause to buy into the idea that he was back in top form at the plate. Sano led all of baseball in hard contact percentage and graded in elite company in just about all of the batted-ball measures.

There are some negatives, even in the hitting arena. Sano swings and misses quite a bit, even by today’s standards. He has consistently struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances and seems a safe bet to continue to do so. Sano does draw a decent number of walks — about a dozen per hundred plate appearances historically and in 2019 — but isn’t as dramatically good in that regard as he is dramatically woeful in terms of strikeouts. Perhaps there’s still some reason to hope he can make strides in the plate-discipline arena, since Sano obviously has an eye and must be pitched carefully. But as things stand, he’s dependent upon sustaining a strong batting average on balls in play to prop up his on-base numbers. So long as he’s stinging the ball, that’ll likely work out well enough, but it’d be nice to see some closing of the yawning gap between his strikeout and walk rates.

Supposing that the Twins think Sano can repeat or even expand upon his offensive output of 2019, that’s a heck of a starting point. His 137 wRC+ matched that of Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien, making them the next two players out of the top twenty slots leaguewide among players with at least 400 plate appearances. Of course, Semien produced nearly three times as much fWAR as Sano due to the variety of factors that limit the latter’s value.

First and foremost is the question of glovework. Sano has a huge arm but isn’t exactly the most mobile of players with his massive frame. He has at times graded out between slightly below average and very poor in terms of overall defensive performance at third, by measure of Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved. Both were down on his work last year, especially UZR. But Statcast’s newly devised defensive grading system isn’t quite so negative, marking Sano as a below-average but hardly disastrous performer at the hot corner.

Even if you take a somewhat more optimistic view of things, it seems safe to say Sano isn’t likely to be more than a palatable defender at third over the life of this contract. And with his big frame and durability concerns, there’s risk he won’t even be that. Of course, it’s still possible that he could shift across the diamond — as soon as 2020, if the Twins land Josh Donaldson — and the DH slot will open up at some point if and when Nelson Cruz retires or heads elsewhere. None of that will resolve Sano’s longstanding woes on the basepaths, where he’s a consistent negative, though Statcast does indicate that Sano was once rather speedy and is still in range of average in average sprint velocity.

Ultimately, the Twins don’t need Sano to be a true superstar for this deal to work out. Picking up control over two of Sano’s potential prime hitting seasons delivers plenty of value upside. And while there are some downside scenarios, the overall guarantee just isn’t great enough to carry significant risk even to a lower-payroll outfit.

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