Jays Refute Report Of Deal With Brantley
12:20pm: Though Mae, The Athletic, MLB Network and several other national outlets have all reported a deal is in place, a Blue Jays official now refutes that notion to Mae (Twitter link). That official’s statement, per Mae: “The team remains interested in Michael Brantley but there is no deal currently in place.”
It’s possible that there are some semantics at play, of course, as the reported contractual agreement was still pending completion of a physical. Reports after the initial word of yesterday’s agreement with Kirby Yates pushed back similarly, stressing no deal was completed, as Yates was still in the process of taking his physical.
Jeff Passan of ESPN and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com both tweet that a deal could yet be pushed across the finish line, even though nothing is final just yet. Still, the door seems to remain cracked for Brantley to yet land elsewhere.
10:57am: The Blue Jays have continued their frenzied free-agent strike, agreeing to a three-year contract with outfielder/designated hitter Michael Brantley, Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae reports (via Twitter). The deal is pending a physical. Brantley is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Brantley follows his former Astros teammate, George Springer, to Toronto on the heels of the Jays’ agreements with right-handers Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood. It’s a dramatic crescendo after months of the Jays being linked to virtually every free agent on the market — one that gives Toronto one of the deepest lineups not just in the American League but in all of Major League Baseball.
While Springer was rightly heralded as the top bat on the offseason market, Brantley has a legitimate claim to being the second-best hitter available. The former seventh-round pick has displayed elite bat-to-ball skills and hit for a high average since his Major League debut back in 2009, but since a breakout showing with Cleveland in 2014, Brantley has more quietly ranked among the game’s elite bats, hitting a combined .311/.371/.481 in more than 3100 plate appearances over that stretch. In that time, Brantley’s 131 wRC+ — indicating he’s been 31 percent better than an average hitter after adjusting for park and league — ranks 29th among 398 qualified hitters. (Springer’s 134, in fact, sits just five spots higher.)
Not only has Brantley been among the best overall hitters in the game during that seven-year stretch — he’s also been one of the most difficult to strike out. Only four players have a lower strikeout percentage than Brantley’s 10.1 dating back to 2014. Springer himself has dropped his strikeout rate considerably, punching out at a career-low 17.1 percent in 2020. The Jays’ newest pairing, then, not only brings plenty of power to the table but also will further improve upon a 22.4 percent strikeout rate that was the 11th-lowest in MLB.
The addition of Brantley and Springer gives the Jays a host of outfield options on the 40-man roster, as that pair will join incumbents like Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randal Grichuk and Derek Fisher. Between that potential logjam and a similar collection of options behind the plate (Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire, Riley Adams, Gabriel Moreno), there’s been plenty of speculation about the Jays utilizing those ostensible surpluses to acquire pitching help on the trade market.
Springer and Brantley will become anchors in a lineup that already boasts an impressive collection of young talent, headlined by budding superstar Bo Bichette as well as Gurriel, Hernandez, Cavan Biggio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez. It’s still possible the Jays will add an infielder to that mix, but the rotation, led by Hyun Jin Ryu, figures to be the primary area of focus in the days and weeks to come.
Prior to their agreement with Brantley, the Jays had about $98MM committed to a dozen players and were more than $80MM shy of the $210MM luxury tax barrier. For a club that carried a payroll of nearly $165MM as recently as 2017-18, there’s obviously considerable room to further supplement the roster even after signing Brantley. It’s possible, too, that the Jays could trade away some players who alter that financial outlook; Grichuk is owed $28MM over the next three years, while Gurriel is owed $13.4MM in that same stretch. Hernandez is signed for $4.325MM in 2021 and controlled via arbitration through 2023.
Frankly, the Blue Jays ought to have the payroll capacity to take their pick of available free-agent starters and relievers, should they choose. They’ve already met with Trevor Bauer who, like Brantley, is a known entity to Jays president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, who were the Indians’ general manager and director of player development at the time Bauer was traded from Arizona to Cleveland. Toronto has also been tied to Jake Odorizzi, a client of the same agency that represents Springer, Brantley and Chatwood alike. The trade market presents myriad opportunities, and now that the Jays have Springer and Brantley set in place, they’ll have a better idea of their budget and which players they feel are potentially expendable.
Regardless of which specific arms the Jays add to the mix, it’s clear that they’ll be adding some form of pitching. The magnitude of those additions will go a long way in determining just how good this club can be, but it’s clear right now that the Jays are emerging as credible threats to both the Yankees and the Rays in the American League East.
Don Sutton Passes Away
Baseball Hall of Famer Don Sutton has passed away, his son Daron announced Tuesday. The former major league right-hander was 75 years old.
Sutton had a storied career with the Dodgers, Angels, Brewers, Astros and Athletics from 1966-88. Most of his time in the majors (16 years) was spent with the Dodgers, with whom he amassed 233 of his 324 regular-season victories. The Dodgers retired Sutton’s number in 1998.
Sutton is tied with fellow legend Nolan Ryan for 14th in wins and ranks seventh in innings pitched (5,282), having piled up more than 200 frames in a whopping 20 seasons. The workload never seemed to have a negative effect on Sutton, as he finished his career with a 3.26 ERA and currently ranks seventh in strikeouts with 3,574. Sutton also earned four All-Star berths during his time in the bigs.
After he was done playing, Sutton spent time in the broadcast booth with the Dodgers, Braves and Nationals. Sutton’s longest run as a commentator was with the Braves, who placed him in their Hall of Fame 2015.
MLBTR mourns the loss of a baseball great and sends our condolences to Sutton’s family and fans.
White Sox Sign Liam Hendriks
TODAY: Hendriks’ contract is broken down by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The closer will receive a $1MM signing bonus, $11MM in 2021, $13MM in 2022, $14MM in 2023, and then the $15MM option/buyout for 2024. The option will automatically vest if Hendriks is traded.
Jan. 15: The White Sox have formally announced the signing of Hendriks to a four-year, $54MM contract. Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com and Joel Sherman of the New York Post point out an interesting wrinkle in the unique structure of Hendriks’ contract (Twitter link): for luxury-tax purposes, the fourth year comes with a zero-dollar hit. Because Hendriks is guaranteed the full $54MM even over a three-year term, the first three years will come with an $18MM hit (dipped slightly because of the 10-year deferrals if the option is bought out).
The White Sox have never flirted with the luxury barrier, but it’s notable in the event that they increase their spending in future years or in the event that another club wants to borrow the concept for future dealings. Of course, with the collective bargaining agreement set to expire next December, it could be rendered a moot point; it’s possible that new luxury limits and/or new means of determining luxury penalization will be bargained.
Jan. 12: If the White Sox don’t pick up Hendriks’ $15MM option for the 2024 season, they’ll pay him a buyout of that same value but defer it over a 10-year period, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. That’s an unprecedented structure for a club option that affords the ChiSox the opportunity for substantial up-front cost savings while still guaranteeing Hendriks the full freight of the $54MM — even if the actual present-day value of the contract is weighed down by the potential deferrals.
Jan. 11: The White Sox have reached an agreement with free-agent reliever Liam Hendriks, pending a physical, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reports. It’s a three-year, $54MM guarantee with a club option for a fourth season, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Both the option and buyout are worth $15MM, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, so the right-handed Hendriks will earn that money regardless of how long he’s part of the team. Passan adds that the White Sox would be able to pay the buyout over multiple years. Hendriks is a client of ALIGND Sports Agency.
So far, this is the largest guarantee given to any free agent during what has been a slow-moving offseason. It comes as a surprise when considering how the winter opened for relievers, as Cleveland waived star closer Brad Hand in lieu of paying him a $10MM option for 2021 and no other team claimed him. After that, it would have been easy expect relievers to continue faring somewhat poorly this offseason, but Hendriks will be paid handsomely. In fact, his deal blows past the three-year, $30MM prediction MLBTR made for him before the offseason.
Just a couple of years ago, it would have been almost impossible to imagine Hendriks at this point. The Athletics outrighted him in July 2018, but he came back with a vengeance as a member of the team that September and carried it over into the 2019 and ’20 campaigns. Hendriks was the majors’ most effective late-game arm during that span, as he pitched to a 1.66 ERA with a similarly astounding 33.1 percent strikeout-walk percentage, piled up 39 saves out of 47 chances, and won American League Reliever of the Year honors in 2020.
Based on what he has done in recent seasons, the 31-year-old Hendriks looks like an enormous loss for the A’s – who didn’t give the hurler a qualifying offer after they knocked off the White Sox in the first round of last fall’s playoffs – and a massive pickup for Chicago. The White Sox earned their first trip to the postseason since 2008 last season, and they’re one of the few teams in baseball that have been active since then. Assuming the Hendriks deal goes through, he’ll be their third noteworthy pickup of the offseason, joining starter Lance Lynn and outfielder Adam Eaton.
Also a former Twin, Royal and Blue Jay, Hendriks should be in line to take over for free agent Alex Colome as Chicago’s closer. The Australia native will be the highest-profile member of a White Sox relief corps that finished seventh in the majors in ERA (3.76) last year, when holdovers Evan Marshall, Aaron Bummer, Matt Foster and Codi Heuer turned in terrific results. With Hendriks coming in, Chicago’s bullpen could be even better in 2021.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets Fire GM Jared Porter
12:35PM: Major League Baseball is preparing an investigation into Porter, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Pending the results of this investigation, Porter could face a suspension, and would then have to apply for reinstatement in order to again work with another MLB team.
7:17AM: Mets owner Steve Cohen announced on Twitter this morning that the organization has terminated general manager Jared Porter following last night’s revelation that he had harassed a female reporter in 2016 via a string of 60-plus unreturned text messages, which included unsolicited, explicit images.
“In my initial press conference I spoke about the importance of integrity and I meant it,” writes Cohen. “There should be zero tolerance for this type of behavior.”
Mets president Sandy Alderson said last night in statement to ESPN that Porter had acknowledged his prior actions and expressed remorse. Alderson added that the organization would “follow up as we review the facts regarding this serious issue.” Cohen and Alderson acted swiftly and decisively, and Cohen’s announcement that Porter has been “terminated” did not mince words.
Whether the Mets will hire a new general manager this winter remains to be seen. Alderson has been heading up baseball operations since Cohen purchased the club and brought him back to the organization, and the expectation was that Porter was either being groomed to eventually take over baseball operations himself eventually or that a more seasoned executive would be brought in to take over the 72-year-old Alderson’s role down the line. Alderson, of course, has decades of experience in running baseball operations departments and is more than capable of helming the ship in 2021 should the team decide to wait until next winter to look for a replacement.
Porter’s tenure lasted all of 37 days, marking the second consecutive winter in which the Mets have hired and fired a key organizational leader within mere weeks. The Mets named Carlos Beltran their manager early in the 2019-20 offseason, only to fire him just over two months later after his role in architecting the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal had come to light.
Padres Acquire Joe Musgrove In 3-Team Trade
TODAY: The trade is official. The Padres get Musgrove, the Mets get Lucchesi, and the Pirates receive the five prospects (Rodriguez, Head, Cruz, Fellows, and Bednar).
JANUARY 18, 5:47pm: This is a three-team trade, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray, who reports that the Mets will acquire Lucchesi. The Pirates will get catcher/outfielder Endy Rodriguez, per Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.
5:40pm: Pittsburgh will get five players in return, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Head and lefty Omar Cruz are among those going to the Pirates, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Southpaw Joey Lucchesi is also part of the trade, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports, as are righties David Bednar and and Drake Fellows, Lin relays.
5:18pm: The Padres have agreed to acquire right-hander Joe Musgrove from the Pirates, Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets. The Pirates will receive “a large package of prospects,” potentially including outfielder Hudson Head, according to Passan.
This is the fourth significant trade for a starter in recent months for the Padres, who first acquired righty Mike Clevinger from Cleveland before last August’s deadline. Clevinger was quite effective for the Padres after the trade, but elbow issues limited him to one inning during the team’s NLDS loss to the division-rival Dodgers in October, and he won’t pitch at all in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November.
After losing Clevinger for the upcoming season, the Padres swung trades with the Cubs for Yu Darvish, a National League Cy Young contender in 2020, as well as with the Rays for former AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. They’ll presumably have Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Dinelson Lamet (if he’s healthy after dealing with bicep troubles last year) and Chris Paddack in their season-opening rotation, though prospects MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers and Adrian Morejon could be among younger Pads pushing for starts in 2021.
In Musgrove, San Diego is getting a California native who owns a 4.33 ERA in 496 2/3 innings between the Astros and Pirates, but he entered the offseason as one of the majors’ most intriguing trade chips after a career-best campaign. The 28-year-old threw 39 2/3 innings and recorded a 3.86 ERA/3.50 SIERA, all while registering a personal-high 14.4 percent swinging-strike rate and placing 10th in the majors in strikeout percentage (33.1 percent). That production would have made it more difficult for the low-payroll Pirates to extend Musgrove, who’s due $4.45MM in 2021 and has one more year of arbitration control left after that.
Lucchesi could have been part of the Padres’ rotation next season, but he’ll instead go to New York and compete for the No. 5 spot in its starting group. The Mets’ staff looked terrific before this deal with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson comprising their top four, but Steven Matz had been the front-runner for the fifth position after a dismal 2020. He’ll now have to go against Lucchesi, who recorded ERAs in the 4.00s in 2018 and ’19 before tossing just 5 2/3 innings in the bigs last year. Lucchesi’s not eligible to become a free agent until after 2024.
With no chance to contend in the near future, it made sense for the Pirates to move on from Musgrove in favor of a package of younger players. For Musgrove, they’re receiving at least four well-regarded prospects in Head, Cruz, Bednar and Rodriguez, whom MLB.com ranked among the top 20 farmhands in their teams’ farm systems.
Head (No. 7) went in the third round of the 2019 draft and then signed a record bonus for $3MM. The 19-year-old possesses an “extremely high” ceiling, according to MLB.com. Cruz (17) and Bednar (20) were also solid Padres prospects, with MLB.com calling Cruz a possible back-end starter and Bednar a hard thrower with promise. Fellows did not rank among the Padres’ top 30 prospects at MLB.com, and Baseball America wrote before the club drafted him that his 93 to 94 mph fastball is “often hittable because he struggles to hit his spots.” However, BA added that Fellows’ slider could at least help make him a legitimate major league reliever.
Rodriguez, 20, was the Mets’ 14th-ranked prospect at MLB.com before the trade. MLB.com writes that Rodriguez has “an advanced approach and natural bat-to-ball skills” that will be all the more valuable if he sticks at catcher, though a future in the outfield does seem like a possibility.
The main takeaway here is that the Padres remain serious about vying for a World Series – something they have never won – in the near future. Even if it doesn’t happen in the short term, though, the Padres appear to be set up to succeed for the long haul. Their MLB roster is one of the game’s best, and as BA notes on Twitter, the Padres still lead the league with seven top 100 prospects.
Phillies Sign Archie Bradley
Jan. 18: Bradley has passed his physical, and the contract has been formally announced by the Phillies.
Jan. 14: The Phillies are signing free-agent reliever Archie Bradley, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets. It’s a one-year, $6MM pact for the right-hander, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan of ESPN.com were first to report that Bradley was nearing a deal with a team. Bradley is a client of BBI Sports Group.
Bradley has been on the open market since the Reds non-tendered him Dec. 2 in lieu of paying him a projected $4.3MM to $5.7MM in arbitration. The move was particularly surprising when combining Bradley’s solid track record with the fact that the Reds acquired him from the Diamondbacks for two players – utilityman Josh VanMeter and young outfielder Stuart Fairchild – at last August’s trade deadline.
The Bradley trade did pay off initially for Cincinnati, as he gave the playoff-bound club 7 2/3 innings of one-earned run ball with six strikeouts, no walks and four hits allowed during the regular season. Bradley didn’t fare as well in his lone playoff appearance, though, surrendering the only run in a 13-inning defeat to the Braves in Game 1 of a wild-card round that Cincy went on to lose.
The seventh overall pick of the Diamondbacks in 2011, Bradley was regarded as a premium prospect over the ensuing few years, But he couldn’t put it together as a big league starter in Arizona from 2015-16. The proverbial light bulb went on the next season when the Diamondbacks shifted Bradley to their bullpen. Bradley enjoyed a serious increase in velocity that year (from 92 mph-plus to upward of 96) and pitched to a 1.73 ERA across 73 innings. Although Bradley’s results weren’t as dominant from 2018-19, he continued to keep runs off the board at a good clip while eating innings (over 70 in both seasons) and throwing better than 95.
Bradley’s average fastball velo dipped to around 94 last year, but it was still one of his most effective seasons yet. The 28-year-old notched a 2.95 ERA/3.44 SIERA and recorded a 24.7 percent strikeout rate with a personal-best 4.1 percent walk rate in 18 1/3 innings. Bradley’s 9.4 percent swinging-strike rate was a bit above his career average of 8.7, while the .274 weighted on-base average he allowed wasn’t too far from his .297 expected wOBA.
Now with the Phillies, his third organization, Bradley should provide some much-needed help to a bullpen that helped cost the team a playoff berth in 2020. The Phillies’ relief corps finished last in the majors in ERA (7.06), and the tandem of new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and general manager Sam Fuld have tried to improve the group with the acquisitions of Bradley, Jose Alvarado, Sam Coonrod and Ian Hamilton this winter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees, Aaron Judge Avoid Arbitration
The Yankees and Aaron Judge have agreed on a $10.175MM contract to avoid arbitration, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). That falls in line with MLBTR’s projected salary range of $9.2MM — $10.7MM. Judge is a client of PSI Sports Management.
This was Judge’s second of three trips through the arbitration process and marks a slight pay bump from last season’s $8.5MM mark (prior to prorating salaries). The power-hitting outfielder will be eligible for free agency after the 2022 season.
Judge was hampered by calf injuries last year but remained plenty productive when he was able to take the field. He popped nine home runs in just 114 plate appearances en route to a .257/.336/.554 slash line (140 wRC+). The 28-year-old figures to reprise his role as one of the sport’s most fearsome sluggers in 2021.
Dodgers, Cody Bellinger Avoid Arbitration
The Dodgers and Cody Bellinger agreed to a one-year, $16.1MM contract ahead of today’s arbitration deadline, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Bellinger made $11.5MM last season, a record amount for a player in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras. As a Super-Two player, Bellinger has two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining before his potential free agency following the 2023 season.
Bellinger’s record salary last season came on the heels of a National League MVP season in which he produced a .305/.406/.629 slash line and 7.1 bWAR. While his Dodgers got over the hump to win the World Series this season, Bellinger posted a mere mortal .239/.333/.455 line at the plate during the regular season. Despite seeing a year-over-year drop from 162 wRC+ to 114 wRC+ this season, the Dodgers saw fit to reward Bellinger with a sizable raise regardless. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Bellinger would have received an arbitration award somewhere between $11.5MM and $15.9MM. The model based on 2020’s numbers alone was definitely too conservative, as he was going to get a raise of some sort, but it’s still interesting to see the Dodgers agree to a number beyond even our highest projection.
While Bellinger’s offensive numbers may have been down, he remained as central as ever to the Dodgers’ efforts. The 25-year-old led all of baseball with eight outs above average while manning centerfield for the Dodgers, which the Dodgers certainly could include in their valuation of Bellinger, even if arbitration panels don’t typically overly weigh defensive metrics such as OAA.
Mets, Brad Hand Discussing Deal
The Mets are working to sign free agent reliever Brad Hand to a two-year contract, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). A contract is not yet signed, however, and the two sides may not be particularly close to resolution, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Rosenthal adds two other sources in concert with Feinsand’s assessment that the two sides are not as close to a deal as it was first reported.
Hand unwittingly became an emblematic figure for this winter’s free agency when the Indians surprisingly chose to waive him rather than bring him back on a one-year, $10MM deal. When none of the other 29 teams claimed Hand, despite the seemingly favorable terms of his one-year pact, the tenor for the winter was set. Interest has picked up in recent weeks for Hand, however, as the Astros, Blue Jays, and Dodgers all expressed at least some degree of interest along with the Mets, obviously, and the Red Sox, we learned today from Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter).
The White Sox have expressed interest in the past, though they would seem to be less likely to win the bidding for Hand after their pricey accord with Liam Hendriks. Hand would be an equally impactful signing for the Mets, should they ultimately get him. The Mets bullpen ranked 21st in the Majors last season with a 5.01 ERA, 16th by fielding independent pitching with a 4.46 FIP. That said, Hand would buoy any bullpen after a 2020 season with a 2.05 ERA/1.37 FIP over 22 innings with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate, 4.7 percent walk rate, and 26.5 percent groundball rate.
Giants Sign Alex Wood
The Giants have signed left-hander Alex Wood to a one-year contract, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. It’s a $3MM guarantee that includes up to $3MM more in performance bonuses for the ACES client, per Maria Guardado of MLB.com.
Wood, an ex-Dodger, will now reunite with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, who was the Los Angeles general manager earlier in the southpaw’s career. Wood had some of his best seasons when Zaidi was in LA’s front office, and the 30-year-old has largely held his own since he broke into the majors with the Braves in 2013. Overall, Wood has logged a strong 3.45 ERA/3.72 SIERA in a combined 851 2/3 innings, though his drop-off over the past couple of years made him a buy-low type this offseason.
LA sent Wood to Cincinnati as part of a blockbuster deal before the 2019 campaign, and the Reds were surely expecting him to give them quality innings that year. However, nagging back issues held him out for most of the season and limited him to just 35 2/3 frames of 5.80 ERA pitching.
The Dodgers brought Wood back in free agency almost exactly one year ago (Jan. 12, 2020) on a $4MM guarantee, but the reunion didn’t go quite as planned. Wood struggled with shoulder problems in the regular season, in which he tossed 12 2/3 innings and yielded nine earned runs (mostly out of the bullpen). But Wood did rebound during the Dodgers’ World Series-winning playoff run with 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball and eight strikeouts against three walks. Four of those innings, all of which were scoreless, came during the Fall Classic against Tampa Bay.
In an ideal world for the Giants, Wood will perform more like he did in last year’s playoffs than in the regular season. Either way, it’s not all that surprising that they’re bringing him into the fold. Not only does Wood have connections to Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler, another former member of the Dodgers’ front office, but Giants GM Scott Harris made it known earlier this week that acquiring a lefty starter was a priority for the team.
The Giants lost southpaw Drew Smyly to the Braves earlier in free agency after he served as an inexpensive steal for the club in 2020, which temporarily left them with a righty-laden projected rotation. Wood should provide some balance to a Giants starting staff that figures to rely heavily on two of Wood’s former Reds teammates – Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani – as well as Johnny Cueto and Logan Webb.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.