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Mariners Sign Yusei Kikuchi

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The Mariners have spent much of the offseason making trades to aggressively reshape their roster, but they announced on Wednesday what figures to be one of the largest pitching signings of the offseason: a four-year contract for free-agent left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. The Scott Boras client, who had been posted for MLB clubs by the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball, will reportedly receive a guaranteed $56MM on a uniquely structured contract.

The first three years of Kikuchi’s contract will reportedly pay him $43MM, and at that point he’ll have a player option for the 2022 season that is valued at $13MM. However, the Mariners can also preemptively exercise a four-year club option on Kikuchi that would promise him an additional $66MM. In doing so, they’d effectively be extending his contract to a seven-year, $109MM deal. Conceptually, the deal is similar to the contract that Boras brokered between the Phillies and Jake Arrieta last year, though the overall length of the two pacts differs (as one would expect give the age discrepancy between the two).

Kikuchi, 27, was one of the more intriguing players available on this year’s free-agent market. He was free to sign with any team that he wanted after being posted by the Lions, but he had until early January to come to terms with a new team after being posted in early December, as the current posting agreement between Major League Baseball and NPB gives MLB clubs a 30-day window from the onset of the posting period. As part of that agreement, the Mariners will pay the Lions a release fee equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of anything on top of that. In other words, the Mariners are effectively agreeing to pay the Lions as much as $10.275MM on top of Kikuchi’s guarantee. If the four-year option/extension is picked up in 2022, they’d pay the Lions a total of $19.725MM in addition to the full $109MM guaranteed to Kikuchi.

The connection between Kikuchi and the M’s has long been obvious, particularly since the organization has made no secret of its interest. Though the Seattle club has made clear it’s taking a step back from competitiveness, it hopes to bounce back to contention by 2020 or 2021. That has been a driving factor in Seattle’s acquisition of young, controllable players such as Mallex Smith, Omar Narvaez, Domingo Santana, J.P. Crawford and Justus Sheffield.

The still-youthful Kikuchi seems to fit that timeline. It’s also hard to ignore the simple geographical match. Seattle and other west coast clubs are more convenient locales for Japanese players; the M’s have previously enjoyed positive stints from players such as Ichiro Suzuki and Hisashi Iwakuma and were selected as a finalist for Shohei Ohtani’s services last winter as well.

The addition of Kikuchi will give the Mariners’ rotation some upside to line up alongside young southpaw Marco Gonzales and veteran hurlers Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake and Wade LeBlanc. Bringing Kikuchi into the fold will give the Mariners the luxury of being able to ease Sheffield and/or righty Erik Swanson (acquired alongside Sheffield in the James Paxton swap with the Yankees) into the mix rather than forcing one or both into the rotation out of necessity. Of course, that complexion could still change over the course of the offseason; the Mariners are reportedly still exploring the market for Leake and other veterans.

Over the past four seasons, Kikuchi has worked to a pristine 2.58 ERA with averages of 8.9 strikeouts, 3.1 walks and 0.68 home runs per nine innings pitched. He’s said to have a fastball in the low to mid 90s and multiple average-or-better secondary offerings to pair with that heater. Though the M’s are committing a fairly substantial sum to a pitcher who is largely a wildcard, if Kikuchi is able to find success at the MLB level, that contract could quickly become a bargain. And while that $56MM guarantee is fairly hefty for a player who has yet to throw a pitch in the Majors, it’s more along the lines of the contract a mid-rotation starter would expect to receive on the open market here. If Kikuchi can prove himself as a quality big league arm, it’s quite possible that there’ll even be surplus value on the deal.

The Kikuchi signing is somewhat of a rarity among non-contending clubs these days: a move designed to improve the team for the upcoming season even as it looks to retool/rebuild its organization for the long haul. In an era of tanking teams that are motivated by a collective bargaining agreement that heavily incentivizes losing, few teams make this type of investment early in the rebuilding (or, to use GM Jerry Dipoto’s term, “re-imagining”) process. But the acquisition of Kikuchi and the focus on MLB-ready or near-MLB assets in the majority of the growing web of trades Dipoto has made this winter do all speak to the fact that, as opposed to the arduous multi-year rebuilds on which so many other organizations have embarked, the Mariners hope to be competitive far sooner than later.

Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports first reported that the two sides were nearing a deal (Twitter link). Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted that the two sides had reached an agreement. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported the length of the contract (via Twitter), and Heyman added further details on the contract structure (also via Twitter).

Twins Sign Nelson Cruz

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TODAY: The Twins have officially announced Cruz’s signing.

DEC.27: The Twins are in agreement on a contract with free-agent slugger Nelson Cruz, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). It’s a one-year deal with an option for a second season, according to Fancred’s Jon Heyman (on Twitter). Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes further reports that Cruz will earn $14MM in 2019, and the contract contains a $12MM club option with a $300K buyout (Twitter link). Cruz is represented by the Primo Sports Group.

Nelson Cruz | Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Cruz, 38, was frequently linked to the Twins throughout the offseason. Minnesota stood out as a logical landing spot for the ultra-consistent slugger, as one of the few teams with a clear vacancy at designated hitter following the retirement of Joe Mauer and the decision to decline a club option over Logan Morrison. That pairing of Mauer and Morrison, then, will be swapped out for a more powerful combo of Cruz and C.J. Cron, whom Minnesota picked up from the Rays earlier this offseason.

Although he’s well into his late 30s, Cruz has shown little to no semblance of decline. His four-year, $57MM contract with the Mariners raised some eyebrows initially, but he not only lived up to every bit of that deal but actually provided Seattle with a fair bit of excess value. Over the life of that four-year pact, Cruz raked at a .284/.362/.546 pace despite playing half his games at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. Cruz’s .256/.342/.509 batting line from 2018 was the weakest output of his four seasons in Seattle, but that was largely attributable to an uncharacteristic dip in his average on balls in play (.264 in 2018; .305 career). That BABIP drop came despite the fact that Cruz actually increased his hard-hit rate over his 2017 levels.

Adding Cruz will presumably push fellow righty slugger Tyler Austin into a bench role; the 27-year-old Austin showed huge power with the Twins following a midseason acquisition but remained strikeout-prone and OBP challenged. He can spell either of Cron or Cruz from time to time and has some corner outfield experience in the minors as well.

With Cruz in the fold, the Twins’ lineup will have the potential for quite a bit of power — particularly from the right side of the dish. Cruz has averaged 41 homers per season over the past half-decade, and he’ll slot into the heart of the order alongside Cron (30 homers in 2018) and Miguel Sano, who hit 28 home runs in just 114 games for the Twins in 2017

Of course, Sano’s status is one of the true mysteries for Minnesota heading into 2019; a fractured shin suffered by Sano late in 2017 ultimately led to offseason surgery that saw a titanium rod inserted into his leg, which prevented him from a full offseason of conditioning. If the lingering effects of that surgery are behind him and Sano can return to something approximating his 2017 levels of production, the Twins will possess a trio of right-handed sluggers to pair with lefty-swinging Eddie Rosario. Given the uncertainty surrounding Sano, Byron Buxton and fellow free-agent signing Jonathan Schoop, adding a player with Cruz’s perennial stability is all the more important for the Twins.

Financially speaking, the Twins can easily afford to add Cruz at $14MM for the upcoming season and still make additional moves. Cruz’s contract will boost the Twins’ 2019 payroll to just north of $100MM — a mark that is well shy of both the $112.6MM they’ve averaged over the past four seasons and the $128.7MM payroll they carried into the 2018 season a year ago. Beyond that, the fact that Cruz was added on a one-year guarantee means that the Twins still don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books for the 2020 season, leaving them with more flexibility than any team in the Majors from a long-term vantage point.

Further additions would appear prudent for Minnesota. Though the Twins had a disappointing 2018 season, the American League Central still looks quite weak. The Tigers are still in the midst of a full-scale rebuilding effort, and though the Royals have indicated that they’ll aim to be more competitive in 2019, they’re in a largely similar situation. The White Sox have been rebuilding for a longer period of time and are showing signs of pushing closer to contention, but the 2020 season likely presents a more realistic timetable for the South Siders. Even the Indians, who have won three consecutive division titles, have weakened their roster to an extent this offseason, which at least creates an opportunity for the Twins to make another relatively surprising run. They’ll need bouncebacks from Sano and Buxton and could stand to further augment the pitching staff, though as noted above, they certainly have the financial resources available to make those moves.

Blue Jays Sign Matt Shoemaker

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3:25pm: Shoemaker will earn an additional $250K if he gets to 150, 160, 170 or 180 innings, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

12:20pm: The Blue Jays have announced the signing.

10:24am: Shoemaker can earn an additional $1MM via incentives, Passan tweets, which would push his 2019 earnings up into the same range as his previous arbitration projection.

9:50am: The contract will pay Shoemaker $3.5MM, tweets Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

9:25am: Shoemaker’s guarantee falls in the $3MM to $3.5MM range, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.

8:51am: The Blue Jays are in agreement on a one-year, Major League contract with free-agent righty Matt Shoemaker, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). Toronto has an open spot on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding roster move won’t be necessary. Shoemaker is represented by ISE Baseball.

Matt Shoemaker | John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Shoemaker, 32, was a late addition to the free-agent market on Nov. 30 after the Angels decided to non-tender the oft-injured righty rather than pay him a projected $4.3MM salary in arbitration.Because of that non-tender, he ht the open market with four years, 166 days of Major League service time under his belt, meaning he’ll be controllable through the 2020 season, via arbitration, if he can reestablish himself in Toronto.

A series of forearm strains torpedoed Shoemaker’s 2017-18 seasons, limiting him to just 108 2/3 innings over that two-year span. He wasn’t especially effective in that time, either, pitching to a combined 4.64 ERA (4.62 FIP) with 8.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and an ugly 1.5 HR/9 mark.

That said, there’s also reason for optimism with Shoemaker. Though his 4.94 ERA in 31 innings this past season won’t impress anyone, he averaged a career-high 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings in that brief span and recorded a career-best 13.6 percent swinging-strike rate, as well. Perhaps there’s some small-sample noise at play there, but Shoemaker’s splitter was a demonstrably more effective pitch in his limited time on the mound in his final season with the Halos.

It’s also worth noting, of course, that Shoemaker was a solid mid-rotation starter for the Angels from 2013-16, working to a combined 3.75 ERA (3.76 FIP) with averages of eight strikeouts, 1.9 walks and 1.2 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Shoemaker figures to slot into a rotation that also includes Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and Ryan Borucki, with right-hander Sean Reid-Foley and southpaw Thomas Pannone vying for the fifth spot in new skipper Charlie Montoyo’s starting five.

Nationals Sign Anibal Sanchez

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The Nationals on Thursday announced the signing of free-agent righty Anibal Sanchez, to a two-year contract with a club option for a third season. Sanchez is said to be guaranteed $19MM on the contract, which reportedly contains some relatively minimal deferrals. Sanchez is represented by agent Gene Mato.

Anibal Sanchez | Courtesy of Nationals Communications

Sanchez, 35 in February, will reportedly earn a $6MM salary in 2019, $7MM in 2020 and will have the additional $6MM of his $19MM guarantee deferred to 2021. That leaves the Nats with more financial breathing room as they look to continue adding to the 2019 roster, although it doesn’t lower the luxury tax hit that comes with Sanchez’s contract. The 2021 club option is valued at $12MM, and Sanchez can reportedly earn another $4MM of incentives.

Sanchez steps into the rotation spot that was recently vacated when Tanner Roark was traded to the Reds. While Sanchez, it seems, won’t come to the Nats at a significantly lower rate than the $9.8MM at which Roark was projected (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). However, unlike Roark, who exhibited numerous red flags in 2018 (e.g. diminished velocity, strikeout, home-run and ground-ball rates), Sanchez enjoyed a legitimate renaissance with the Braves in 2018 and looks in many regards to be trending back up.

After joining the Braves on a minor league contract in Spring Training, the veteran Sanchez not only worked his way onto the roster but emerged as one of Atlanta’s most reliable arms. In 136 2/3 innings, the former Marlins/Tigers hurler worked to a terrific 2.83 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate.

While Sanchez undoubtedly has his skeptics given the dreadful manner in which his time with the Tigers ended, a look at his secondary metrics and pitch selection gives every reason to continue to be optimistic in 2019. Sanchez dramatically ramped up the usage of his cutter this past season, leading to increases in both his swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates. Where Sanchez truly shined, however, was not necessarily in terms of missing bats (though his strikeout rate was strong) but rather in terms of generating weak contact. Per Statcast data, no qualified starting pitcher in baseball had a lower average exit velocity on balls in play than Sanchez, and no pitcher in the game allowed less hard contact than the minuscule 25.8 percent clip that Sanchez yielded.

Clearly, the Nationals are buying the new and improved version of Sanchez. While there’s likely some regression in store — it’s not reasonable to expect him to replicate a league-best ability to minimize hard contact, and Sanchez did benefit from both a 79 percent strand rate and .255 average on balls in play — at two years and a total of $19MM, the Nats aren’t exactly paying him to be the dominant buzzsaw that he was in Atlanta this past season. If Sanchez can even function as a competent mid-rotation piece, that’d be a more than acceptable price to pay. And, if he outperforms Roark by any appreciable sum, then the decision to jettison him in favor of Sanchez will look all the more shrewd, given the comparable salary figures.

[Related: Updated Washington Nationals depth chart and Nationals payroll outlook]

Sanchez will slot into the Nationals’ rotation behind a stacked top three that features three-time Cy Young winner/future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, former No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg and 2018 breakout star Patrick Corbin — another offseason addition for general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff. That quartet, paired with one of Joe Ross, Erick Fedde or perhaps another yet-to-be-acquired starting pitcher, should comprise one of the game’s most formidable starting staffs as the Nationals look to reemerge as contenders in an increasingly difficult division on the heels of a down year for the organization.

From a 2019 payroll vantage point, this deal won’t likely change much from the way things looked a week ago, prior to the trade of Roark, and the same is largely true with regard to the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger. As such, the addition of Sanchez shouldn’t have any impact on the Nationals’ ability to make another run at retaining Bryce Harper, though recent comments from managing principal owner Mark Lerner suggest that Harper’s time with the Nats may indeed be up.

If that’s indeed the case, the organization will have essentially spread out much of the money that could’ve gone to Harper across a number of offseason additions, having already signed Corbin, Sanchez, Kurt Suzuki and Trevor Rosenthal in addition to trading for Kyle Barraclough and Yan Gomes. With Sanchez now in the fold, the Nationals project at just north of $200MM in terms of both actual 2019 payroll and luxury tax payroll. That leaves about $6MM to work with to remain under the luxury barrier, though they exceeded that threshold last season, so there’s clearly no ownership mandate not to cross that point.

Sanchez’s deal may seem steep to some, given the lasting impression from his final years in Detroit. However, the general parameters of this contract align with the two years and $22MM forecast on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings/contract predictions. For those who played along in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest, just 1.88 percent of participants correctly pegged Sanchez as a future National.

Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press broke the news that Sanchez was signing with the Nats (Twitter links). Fancred’s Jon Heyman added information on the third-year option (Twitter links), and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweeted the yearly breakdown of the contract.

Athletics Sign Mike Fiers

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7:31PM: Fiers will earn $14.1MM in total, according to Janie McCauley of the Associated Press (Twitter link).  The deal breaks down as $6MM in 2019, and $8.1MM in 2020.

Dec. 24, 1:02PM: The A’s have announced the deal (via Twitter).

Dec. 22:The Oakland Athletics are close to re-signing Michael Fiers, per the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Fiers will earn between $14MM and $15MM over a two-year span (Twitter links). The deal is pending a physical.

The dollar amount makes sense for both sides, considering Fiers was non-tendered by the A’s at season’s end while being projected to earn $9.7MM through arbitration. With this agreement, the A’s save themselves a couple million on their 2019 payroll while getting a second season of control, and Fiers gets more guaranteed money.

Fiers came to Oakland in August in exchange for two PTBNL, who turned into LHP Logan Shore and RHP Nolan Blackwood. He then contributed reliable innings for the A’s down the stretch as they struggled to keep rotation arms healthy en route to a surprising 97-win season. Pitching in the spacious arenas of Detroit and Oakland last season, Fiers tallied his best year as a pro: a 12-8 record with a 3.56 ERA across 172 innings.

Fiers threw more sliders than ever in 2018, a pitch he has steadily woven into his repertoire since 2015. The increase in slider usage corresponded with a similar decrease in sinker usage, leading to elevated launch angles and more flyballs (43.2 FB%) – all of which could signal sustainability for Fiers’ 2018 success. His peripherals don’t scream drastic transformation, though he did lower his walk rate to a career-low 1.94 BB/9.

Morosi recently reported Fiers was being courted by the Reds, Nationals, Rangers and Giants, all of whom would have been a poorer fit for Fiers, save perhaps the Giants, given his past home run issues. The Oakland Coliseum seems a good fit for the 33-year-old, who is at his best when keeping the ball in the air, but at his worst when unable to keep the ball in the yard.

Fiers ill join an unstable cadre of rotation arms in Oakland, with Daniel Mengden, Frankie Montas, Aaron Brooks, Paul Blackburn and Chris Bassitt being the in-house options for what’s sure to be another ragtag crew.

Cubs Sign Kendall Graveman

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TUESDAY: Per Heyman, Graveman will earn an additional $100K for each of the following performance milestones: 15 games started, 18 GS, 21 GS, 23 GS, and 25 GS. The incentives package means that Graveman can earn up to $2.5MM in 2019.

SUNDAY: Chicago has announced the signing.

SATURDAY: The Cubs have agreed to a deal with free agent pitcher Kendall Graveman, per ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (via Twitter).

Graveman gets a major league contract worth $575K for 2019 with a $3MM club option for 2020. That option year does not include a buyout. Even one day on the 2019 roster, however, will trigger an escalator clause to bring Graveman’s salary to $2MM, and he can earn an additional $500k in performance bonuses.

Graveman, 28, had been relatively productive the last four seasons for the Oakland A’s when not dogged by injury. His high water mark came in 2016, working to a 10-11 record in 186 innings over 31 starts with a 4.11 ERA (4.39 FIP). For his career, Graveman carries a 23-29 record and 4.38 ERA across 78 career starts.

The A’s say goodbye to another piece from the Josh Donaldson trade of 2014. Infielder Franklin Barreto is now the only player remaining from the trade that sent Oakland’s star third baseman to Toronto the year before he would win the MVP award with the Blue Jays. Graveman spent four seasons in Oakland, the last of which was mostly lost to injury. He made only seven starts in 2018 with a 7.60 ERA before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

For the Cubs, they get to closely monitor the recovery of a potential rotation arm in 2020 at a very low cost. From their presumed 2019 rotation, only Hamels will be a free agent after next season, but Kyle Hendricks will be entering his final year of arbitration, and Jose Quintana will be facing the first of consecutive club options. There’s almost no downside for the Cubs here, while Graveman gets to benefit from the medical resources of the a large market team as he rehabs from Tommy John.

The timetable for his 2019 return is as of yet unclear, but it’s not expected he will play much of a role, if any, on the Cubs next year, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times (via Twitter).The Cubs signed Drew Smyly in a similar situation before last season, only to flip him to the Rangers to help cover the cost of Cole Hamels’ club option this year. Garrett Richards, in a similar situation, signed for two years and $15.5MM guaranteed with the Padres, though he carries a longer track record of success than Graveman.

The financials of the deal were first reported by 670thescore.com’s Bruce Levine, while Fancred’s Jon Heyman noted earlier than Graveman received a major league deal (Twitter links). Heyman added the information about the escalator clause and performance bonus (via Twitter). Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rays Sign Charlie Morton

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DECEMBER 23: The value of Morton’s option will drop to $10MM if he spends 31 to 90 days on the DL by the end of 2020, $5MM for 91 to 150 days, $3MM for 151 to 200 days and $1MM for more than 200, Heyman tweets.

DECEMBER 21: This signing is now official.

DECEMBER 12, 10:57pm: The vesting option has quite a bit of flexibility, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter links). If he’s on the DL for less than thirty days over the two guaranteed seasons, it’ll remain at $15MM. Otherwise, it could land at $10MM, $5MM, $3MM or $1MM, depending upon how many days he’s sidelined.

4:39pm: Morton will receive consecutive $15MM salaries, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). The deal includes assignment bonuses if Morton is traded, valued at $1MM in 2019 and $500K in 2020.

3:03pm: The Rays are in agreement on a deal with right-hander Charlie Morton, according to MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi (Twitter link).  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported earlier today that Morton and the Rays were close to a deal, and also first reported on the interest between the two sides earlier this week.

Morton, a client of Jet Sports Management, will earn $30MM over the two-year contract, as per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan.  The deal also contains an option for the 2021 season that could be worth as much as $15MM if Morton remains healthy, though could also be as low as $1MM should Morton suffer a significant injury over the course of the initial two years.  MLBTR’s ranked Morton 14th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected Morton for a two-year, $32MM commitment, so he could greatly surpass that figure should that option year be exercised at the full amount.

Charlie Morton

Though $30MM in guaranteed money isn’t a huge sum by most free agent standards, it counts as a major splurge by the low-spending Rays, though the club was able to account for the extra expenditure after a season that saw them clear millions off the books in long-term commitments.  Even better for the Rays, they were able to slash payroll while still fielding their most competitive team in years, boasting a young roster that won 90 games in 2018.  That progress left Tampa willing to spend a little extra in the hopes of making a full push towards a postseason berth next season.

The 35-year-old Morton has enjoyed a late-career awakening since coming to the Astros prior to the 2017 season and employing a new pitching philosophy that focused more on strikeouts and generating more velocity.  The veteran has a 3.36 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and 3.19 K/BB rate over 313 2/3 innings in a Houston uniform, a stint that has included a key role in the Astros’ 2017 World Series championship and Morton’s first career All-Star berth in 2018.  The veteran has posted 6.3 fWAR over the last two years, as opposed to 7.8 fWAR over the first nine seasons with the Braves, Pirates, and Phillies.

The Astros didn’t issue a one-year qualifying offer to Morton, though they did offer the hurler a one-year contract with an option on a second year.  The Rangers were another known suitor, and one would assume that several other clubs had interest in Morton given his recent success and the fact that he could be signed to a shorter-term deal.  Morton had given the impression that he could retire soon and wasn’t in search of a long-term commitment, though it seems he’ll put on the spikes for at least two more seasons.  Morton had also expressed an interest in either a return to Houston or joining a team located closer to his wife’s family in Delaware, so the Rays’ east coast locale might’ve been something of a factor, even if Tampa Bay and Delaware aren’t exactly in close proximity.

Morton now joins AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow as the only three conventional starters in the Rays rotation, as manager Kevin Cash has said that the team will continue to use an “opener” at least twice during every turn of the rotation.  Though the Rays used openers very regularly in 2018 (even on a near-daily basis over the summer while Snell was on the DL), adding a veteran arm like Morton to cover innings provides some extra cushion for the relief corps as it prepares for another significant workload.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mariners Acquire Domingo Santana, Send Ben Gamel To Brewers

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6:25pm: The clubs have announced the swap.

5:18pm: The Mariners and Brewers are closing in on a swap that would send outfielder Domingo Santana to Seattle, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link). Outfielder Ben Gamel and righty Noah Zavolas are going to the Brewers in the deal, Corey Brock of The Athletic tweets. Medical reviews still must be conducted before things will be official, but it seems the parameters are agreed upon.

While the M’s are entering a sort of rebuilding phase, with the Brewers aiming to repeat their NL Central crown, this swap will send a notable MLB asset out west. That can be explained by Santana’s messy 2018 season, which largely knocked him out of the plans for Milwaukee.

Santana had turned in a highly productive, albeit strikeout-riddled, 2017 season. But the Brewers nevertheless pursued offseason outfield upgrades and the 26-year-old ended up cratering to open the ensuing campaign. Santana was demoted after 62 games of .249/.313/.354 hitting to open the year.

As it turned out, Santana got things going at Triple-A and returned with a nice (albeit brief) late-season run. He performed well enough to earn a not-insignificant postseason role, but not enough to write his way back into any future lineup cards. With no options remaining, a departure seemed the likeliest outcome.

The Mariners, though, will gladly take a shot at seeing whether Santana can get back to the thirty-homer, .371 OBP output that he produced in ’17. He’ll cost a projected $2.0MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility, leaving two more seasons of control still remaining thereafter.

Doing so will cost Seattle a chance to see more of Gamel, a left-handed-hitting asset who perhaps better fits the Brewers roster — particularly since he can still be optioned. The M’s had been loaded up on lefties, including recently acquired outfielders Mallex Smith and Jay Bruce.

Out in Milwaukee, it’s possible to imagine Gamel functioning as a bench mate to pair at times with Ryan Braun. The club had utilized the lefty-swinging Eric Thames at times in the corner outfield, though it’s fair to wonder whether that experiment will continue.

Gamel has hit at just above the league-average rate over the past two seasons, runs the bases well, and is capable of playing all three outfield positions (though he has mostly been utilized in the corners). He has not carried significant platoon splits to this point in his MLB career, which suggests he’s more of a general reserve than a strict platoon option.

As for Zavolas, the 22-year-old Harvard product had a nice debut showing in the Mariners system. In 38 2/3 innings, mostly at the low A level but also including three High-A appearances, he pitched to a 3.03 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. His outlook isn’t clear, but that’s impressive progress for a player who was selected in the 18th round just last summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Acquire Kemp, Puig & Wood From Dodgers For Homer Bailey, Prospects

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The Dodgers and Reds have announced a long-rumored blockbuster that will shift around a variety of notable players. Veterans Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood are all heading to Cincinnati, along with catcher/infielder Kyle Farmer and $7MM. Meanwhile, righty Homer Bailey is going to Los Angeles, accompanied by young righty Josiah Gray and infielder Jeter Downs.

Financial factors obviously weigh heavily here. Kemp is earning $21.5MM in the final year of his contract, while Bailey is earning $23MM — in addition to a $5MM buyout on his 2020 mutual option. Bailey, though, only represents a $17.5MM hit for luxury tax purposes, while Kemp is a $20MM CBT piece. The Dodgers’ cash and luxury tax savings are boosted yet further by moving Puig and Wood, though certainly both of those players are positive-value assets, even as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project that Puig will earn $11.3MM while Wood will end up with a $9.0MM salary. Net it all out, and it seems that the Dodgers will take on $28MM in new obligations, plus the $7MM they’re covering of the old ones, while sending approximately $42MM to the Reds, who’ll end up taking on only ~$7MM in total new salary in the deal. In terms of the luxury tax, L.A. will trim its tabulation by around $16MM (as above, depending upon the final salaries for Wood and Puig), though obviously the actual tax savings will only be a percentage of that amount.*

Clearly, the Dodgers were willing to move on from a trio of useful, albeit expensive players in order to free up roster space and payroll flexibility while also picking up some worthwhile prospect assets. This is hardly the first deal of this kind from a Dodgers front office that is always working angles and contemplating large trade packages. Indeed, both Wood and Kemp came to the organization in other complex arrangements, the former as part of a 3-team, 13-player 2015 blockbuster and the latter in last winter’s tax-avoidance contract swap.

It’s hard not to look at this swap and think about what might be next for the Dodgers, who have now bumped two key corner outfield pieces from their ’19 plans. Clearly, the move opens the door to a potential run at Bryce Harper, though it hardly makes that anything approaching a certainty. Among other considerations, today’s move drops two of the club’s right-handed-hitting outfield pieces, moving lefties Alex Verdugo and Andrew Toles up the depth chart — for the time being, at least. Possibilities abound for the Dodgers, who’ll surely target both high-end assets and talented players who can function in more flexible roles as their winter continues to unfold.

On the Cincy side, the club certainly now has a better 2019 roster, though it’ll cost some near-term cash and (more importantly) some future value. Wood will slot into the rotation alongside the recently acquired Tanner Roark, who’s also a one-and-done asset. Puig and Kemp will presumably both enter the outfield mix along with left-handed hitters Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker.

Certainly, both Puig and Kemp will boost the Reds’ position-player unit. The former is a quality defender who has produced at about twenty percent above the league average rate at the plate over the past two years. In 444 plate appearances last year, he turned in a .267/.327/.494 slash with 23 long balls and 15 steals. Kemp cooled off after a momentous rebound to begin his second stint in Los Angeles, but still turned in 506 plate appearances of .290/.338/.481 hitting with 21 dingers over the course of the season. Kemp is likelier than Puig to function in more of a platoon role; in addition to his poorly regarded glovework, he’s about six years Puig’s senior at 34 years of age.

While Puig and Kemp are the best-known names in this deal, though, it’s certainly arguable that Wood was the key pick-up from the Reds’ perspective. The southpaw, who’ll soon turn 28, has steadily produced high-quality results ever since breaking into the bigs in 2013. Last year, he worked to a 3.68 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 151 2/3 innings.

There’s good reason to think the Reds will get quality output from Wood. In over eight hundred total MLB frames, he carries a 3.29 ERA with a 3.36 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, and 3.66 SIERA. Though Wood has long been dogged by questions about his long-term health, given his decidedly unorthodox motion, he has topped 150 frames in four of the past five campaigns.

Farmer, meanwhile, hasn’t done much in limited MLB opportunities. But he has hit well in the upper minors in recent campaigns and will at least function as a cheap catching depth asset for the Reds.

All told, it’s plenty of bang for the seven million bucks the Reds are taking on here. It’s hard to imagine the team could have done more with that amount of cash. Of course, the return is mostly tied up in single-season assets, and picking up those near-term pieces will mean the sacrifice of some potential long-term value.

Downs was generally considered one of the ten best prospects on the Cincinnati farm, after all, with Gray not far behind him. Both players are top recent draft picks — Downs went 32nd overall in 2017; Gray was plucked in the second round in the 2018 draft — who have shown quite well in their first professional opportunities. Downs turned in a .257/.351/.402 slash with 13 home runs and 37 steals over 524 plate appearances last year at the Class A level, while Gray threw 52 1/3 innings of 2.58 ERA ball, with 10.1 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9, in a dozen Rookie ball starts.

Bailey, meanwhile, is slated to function only as a vehicle for the rest of this deal. He’ll be cut loose by the Dodgers, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman confirms. Indeed, that seems to have been the reason he elected to waive his full no-trade rights. Bailey, who signed a big extension before the 2014 season that just did not work out for the Reds, has struggled since returning from a long bout with arm injuries. Presumably, he’ll be looking for a chance to compete in camp for a job with another organization.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links) first reported that the deal was nearing finalization and had the key pieces. Bob Nightengale of USA Today added the prospects on Twitter. C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (on Twitter), Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) covered the remaining details.

*An earlier version of this post mistakenly tabulated the salaries to suggest the Dodgers were receiving, rather than sending, $7MM to the Reds. We regret the mistake.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rockies Sign Daniel Murphy

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DECEMBER 21, 3:50pm: Colorado has announced the signing.

9:00am: Murphy’s deal with the Rockies is frontloaded and comes with some deferrals, per Rosenthal (Twitter link). He’ll earn $10MM in 2019 and $8MM in 2020. The buyout on the mutual option is valued at $12MM and comes with a $6MM buyout, though $3MM of that buyout payment is deferred. If Murphy unlocks any bonus in the standard awards bonus package that is included in his contract — All-Star, MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, LCS or World Series MVP — the buyout will increase to $7MM (with $4MM deferred).

DECEMBER 20, 8:13pm: There’s also a mutual option for the 2021 season on the contract, tweets Robert Murray of The Athletic.

5:58pm: It’s a two-year, $24MM contract for Murphy, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. He’ll play mostly first base in Colorado, Passan adds.

5:46pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Murphy “is going” to the Rockies.

5:44pm: Murphy’s contract with the Rockies, if finalized, is expected to be a two-year contract, tweets Thomas Harding of MLB.com.

5:32pm: The Rockies are close to a deal with free-agent infielder Daniel Murphy, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post connected the two sides yesterday in a mailbag column. Murphy is represented by ACES.

Daniel Murphy

Murphy, 33, will bring to the Rockies one of the game’s better left-handed bats. Presumably, he’ll be an option at both second base and first base in Colorado, helping to fill the void created by fellow free agent DJ LeMahieu. Murphy’s defense at second base has taken a turn for the worse recently, particularly following microfracture surgery on his knee last offseason, so it’s at least possible that the Rox view him more as a first base option than as a second base option. If that’s the case, then Ian Desmond would likely shift to the outfield alongside Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl.

What hasn’t taken much of a downturn recently is Murphy’s bat. While the three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger winner struggled a bit in his return from that aforementioned surgery, he caught fire after a brief slump. Over his final 293 plate appearances last season, Murphy flat-out raked at a .322/.358/.502 clip, swatting 12 homers and collecting 13 doubles along the way. He batted a combined .326/.375/.542 with 60 homers, 105 doubles and eight triples over the life of his previous three-year, $37.5MM contract, and he’ll take that production with him to the game’s most hitter-friendly environment: Coors Field.

Suffice it to say, Murphy will deepen an already-excellent lineup featuring Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story. He’ll likely join that trio and David Dahl in comprising the top portion of manager Bud Black’s lineup next season, as the Rox look to build on their 2018 NLDS appearance and put together a strong roster in their final season of club control over Arenado.

Given reports that Murphy’s primary position will be first base, it’s possible that general manager Jeff Bridich and his staff could yet explore the possibility of adding some additional second base options. However, between Desmond, Garrett Hampson, Ryan McMahon and Pat Valaika (to say nothing of looming top prospect Brendan Rodgers and some perhaps occasional work there for Murphy), the Rockies aren’t short on possibilities at the position.

While first base isn’t a position that Murphy has played much in recent years, he does have experience there. Murphy, in fact, logged 850 innings as a first baseman as a back in 2009, in a season where he didn’t tally a single inning of second-base duty at the MLB level. His playing time there has been more sparse in the years to follow, though he did play 83 innings at first base in 2018 and 151 innings there in 2016. Murphy drew terrific marks at first in that ’09 season (+11 DRS, 5.9 UZR), though that obviously carries little weight when projecting his defensive capabilities as a first baseman a full decade later. His defense there since the 2015 season has generally graded out as average in a very limited sample, and, as the Rockies showed with their initial signing of Desmond, they’re not afraid to move an infielder off his more traditional position and play him at first.

Murphy’s two-year, $24MM contract falls closely in line with the two-year, $20MM estimate forecast by MLBTR at the outset of free agency. As for the match with the Rockies, it was a relatively popular one among participants in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction contest, with roughly 6.6 percent of participants placing Murphy at Coors Field.

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