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Braves Extend Brian Snitker

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The Braves announced this morning that they’ve signed manager Brian Snitker to a two-year contract extension that includes a club option for the 2021 season. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman had indicated earlier this morning that Snitker’s widely anticipated new contract was expected to be announced today (Twitter link).

Brian Snitker | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Snitker, 63 on Wednesday, took over as manager on an interim basis back in 2016 after the Braves dismissed Fredi Gonzalez on the heel of a 9-28 start to the season. While he only took over on an interim basis, Snitker impressed the former front office enough that he landed a modest one-year extension with a 2018 option following his initial run at the helm. Even following the resignation of GM John Coppolella and the departure of former president of baseball operations John Hart, though, Snitker has done enough that the new-look front office, headed by general manager Alex Anthopoulos, will retain him for another few seasons.

The 2018 Braves surprised many by winning 90 games and capturing the National League East division title, making an extension for Snitker nearly a foregone conclusion. Snitker and his staff enjoyed a potential Rookie of the Year-winning campaign from Ronald Acuna, while Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb all enjoyed varying degrees of breakouts. Meanwhile, franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman had yet another excellent season, while veterans Nick Markakis and Anibal Sanchez each enjoyed their best seasons in a half decade. Catchers Kurt Suzuki and Tyler Flowers enjoyed solid seasons as well.

If there’s one area that the Braves need to improve moving forward, though, the pitching staff stands out as the most obvious. Specifically, no team in baseball yielded a higher walk percentage than Atlanta, as the Braves walked a staggering 10.3 percent of the hitters they faced. Braves hurlers did check in 12th overall with a strong 23.1 percent strikeout rate, but the free passes proved to be too substantial an obstacle to overcome — especially in the National League Division Series, when the pitching staff doled out 27 walks while falling to the Dodgers in a four-game loss.

That could potentially lead to some coaching changes, as Bowman suggested this morning that pitching coach Chuck Hernandez could be on the hot seat (Twitter link). There’s no word on that from the organization just yet, but clearly Snitker’s strong work to date and the relationships he’s built with the team’s impressive young core have earned him a longer run as the skipper in what should be an extended period of competitive baseball for the Braves.

Yankees Will Shop Sonny Gray This Offseason

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Sonny Gray’s tenure with the Yankees hasn’t panned out nearly as well as the organization had hoped, and general manager Brian Cashman candidly told reporters Friday that he plans to explore trade scenarios this offseason (Twitter link via Newsday’s David Lennon). “We’re entering the winter open-minded to relocation,” Cashman said of Gray. “…It’s probably best to try somewhere else.”

It’s highly atypical to see a baseball executive display that level of candor when discussing a potential trade of a player, but the writing has been on the wall for quite some time now. Gray was dropped from the team’s rotation amid considerable struggles this summer, and the Yankees didn’t carry him on their postseason roster.

Acquired in a high-profile trade that sent Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo and James Kaprielian to the Athletics in July 2017, Gray gave the Yankees 65 1/3 innings of 3.72 ERA ball down the stretch that season. He was far more homer-prone than he’d been in Oakland — perhaps to be expected given the radical shift in his home park — but the 2018 season was an ugly one for Gray. In 130 1/3 innings this season, he posted a 4.90 ERA with a career-worst 3.94 BB/9 mark and a career-high eight hit batters.

To his credit, Gray notched an 8.49 K/9 mark, maintained the velocity on his fastball (93.3 mph average), generated a solid 10.1 percent swinging-strike rate and induced grounders at a characteristically strong 50 percent clip. Nearly all of his struggles were confined to pitching at Yankee Stadium, where he turned in a ghastly 6.98 ERA and allowed 11 home runs in 59 1/3 innings. When pitching away from the Bronx, Gray logged a strong 3.17 ERA and yielded just three homers in 71 innings of work.

That home/road disparity, paired with Gray’s track record and relative youth — he’ll turn 29 in November — should make him a popular buy-low candidate for teams looking to supplement their rotation. He’s only controlled for one more season and comes with a projected arbitration salary of $9.1MM (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). However, Gray entered the 2018 season with a career 3.45 ERA and peripheral stats that largely backed up that mark. The former No. 18 overall draft pick was an All-Star in 2015 and finished third in American League Cy Young voting that season when he tossed 208 innings (his second consecutive 200-inning season) with a 2.73 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. He dealt with shoulder and forearm issues in 2016-17 but has avoided the disabled list in his time with the Yankees.

Nationals Acquire Kyle Barraclough

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The Nationals announced that they have acquired reliever Kyle Barraclough in a trade with the Marlins. $1MM of international bonus availability will head to Miami in the swap, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports (via Twitter).

This transaction comes as a surprise, though the timing may well be explained by the Marlins’ well-known efforts to land top Cuban prospect Victor Victor Mesa. This’ll pad the team’s bonus coffers as it pursues Mesa — also a reputed target of the Orioles — and other talented amateur players who hail from outside of North America.

For the Nats, meanwhile, the move slots in a high-powered relief arm at a palatable price. The club was barred from spending more than $300K on the current international market regardless. And Barraclough projects to earn only $1.9MM in his first trip through arbitration.

Of course, there’s a reason that Barraclough was available for a return that doesn’t really sting his new club. The 28-year-old continued to show big velocity and swing-and-miss stuff in 2018 — he owns a career rate of 11.5 strikeouts per nine — but he continued to deal with major control problems and his results plummeted over the course of the season.

Indeed, after he held 170 opposing hitters to a putrid .126/.254/.217 slash to open the season, the next 75 to step in the box against Barraclough battered him to the tune of a .367/.486/.667 batting line. It’s hard to know just what went wrong, though some release-point issues seem to correlate with changes in the movement of his arsenal. This all occurred in the same general mid-season timeframe as Barraclough’s dip in effectiveness and trip to the DL for a shoulder impingement.

For the Nats, then, this move injects a rather volatile piece into the bullpen. There’s certainly some upside, though; indeed, Barraclough has delivered 218 2/3 innings of 3.21 ERA ball in his career despite the fact that he has consistently issued more than five free passes per nine innings. If he pans out, he’ll also be controllable for two additional seasons.

Surely, the Marlins hoped not long ago that they’d be able to get more for a controllable power arm with high-leverage experience. Unfortunately, though, they ultimately decided to cash him in at a moment when there was an opportunity to take a more future-oriented risk. In some regards, that’s not so different from the reasoning that brought Barraclough to Miami in the first place, when he was picked up in a mid-season deal that sent then-struggling closer Steve Cishek to the Cardinals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brad Ziegler Announces Retirement

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Veteran reliever Brad Ziegler has announced his retirement from the game of baseball (Twitter link). The submariner, who chose the occasion of his 39th birthday to spread the news, has appeared in 11 MLB seasons and compiled over seven hundred innings on the hill.

It has certainly been quite a run for a player who got his start as a 20th-round draft pick and did not touch the majors until his age-28 season. As Ziegler himself notes in his announcement, his outlook was dubious at best when he was transformed from a marginal starting pitching prospect into a drop-down reliever.

As it turns out, Ziegler has led all relievers in baseball in innings pitched and appearances since making his debut in 2008. Despite working in the mid-eighties with his signature sinker, Ziegler befuddled MLB hitters all along the way.

It didn’t take long for Ziegler to announce his presence once he finally did debut. He spun a record-setting 39 scoreless frames for the Athletics in his rookie campaign.

Inevitably, the league adjusted somewhat. And Ziegler was always somewhat limited by his lack of swing-and-miss stuff. But he proceeded to reel off an amazing span of productive campaigns in Oakland and then (after a mid-2011 trade) with the Diamondbacks. From 2008 through 2016, Ziegler tossed nearly six hundred frames while maintaining a 2.44 ERA and picking up 85 saves.

The end of that stretch of excellence, of course, did not come with either of those organizations. Ziegler was shipped from Arizona to the Red Sox at the 2016 trade deadline, leading to a quality run down the stretch in Boston.

Ziegler ended up carrying that momentum into free agency, landing a two-year, $16MM deal from the Marlins. Things didn’t go as hoped, but Ziegler did figure out a way to turn things around in 2018. He threw well enough in the run-up to the deadline that he landed back in Arizona to finish out his career.

Ultimately, Ziegler will be remembered for being a highly-respected, consistent, and exceedingly durable reliever. He led all of baseball, in fact, with 82 appearances in his final campaign. Ziegler also notably tallied more than one hundred career saves.

Above all else, though, his absurd 66.7% career groundball rate sets a mark that future hurlers of his ilk will be measured by. That stands as a record for the modern era in which such statistics are available. (You can safely ignore the first name on that list, as it’s based only on a one-appearance sample in 2002, the first year that GB% is computed.)

It is not yet known what Ziegler will pursue next, but the long-time player’s union representative will surely have his choice of opportunities in and around the game of baseball. MLBTR congratulates him on an excellent career and wishes him the best of luck in his future endeavors. (For the record, this offer still stands!)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2019

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As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the eighth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2019. Official service time is in parentheses next to each player.  The Super Two cutoff has been announced as 2.134.

Angels (8)

  • Tyler Skaggs (4.135) – $3.6MM
  • Andrew Heaney (3.150) – $2.8MM
  • JC Ramirez (3.139) – $1.9MM
  • Luis Garcia (4.006) – $1.7MM
  • Cam Bedrosian (3.153) – $1.7MM
  • Nick Tropeano (3.068) – $1.6MM
  • Hansel Robles (3.119) – $1.4MM
  • Tommy La Stella (4.057) – $1.2MM

Astros (10)

  • Gerrit Cole (5.111) – $13.1MM
  • Roberto Osuna (3.097) – $6.5MM
  • Collin McHugh (5.085) – $5.4MM
  • Carlos Correa (3.119) – $5.1MM
  • Lance McCullers (3.140) – $4.6MM
  • Will Harris (5.102) – $3.6MM
  • Ryan Pressly (5.039) – $3.1MM
  • Brad Peacock (4.165) – $2.9MM
  • Jake Marisnick (4.132) – $2.4MM
  • Chris Devenski (3.000) – $1.4MM

Athletics (9)

  • Khris Davis (5.104) – $18.1MM
  • Marcus Semien (4.118) – $6.6MM
  • Blake Treinen (4.065) – $5.8MM
  • Sean Manaea (2.157) – $3.8MM
  • Liam Hendriks (4.164) – $2.1MM – signed for $2.15MM
  • Mark Canha (3.092) – $2.1MM
  • Ryan Buchter (3.010) – $1.3MM
  • Josh Phegley (4.087) – $1.2MM – signed for $1.075MM
  • Ryan Dull (2.143) – $900K – signed for $860K

Blue Jays (9)

  • Marcus Stroman (4.148) – $7.2MM
  • Ken Giles (4.113) – $6.6MM
  • Kevin Pillar (4.113) – $5.3MM
  • Randal Grichuk (4.033) – $4.8MM
  • Aaron Sanchez (4.069) – $3.8MM
  • Devon Travis (3.163) – $2.4MM
  • Ryan Tepera (3.008) – $1.7MM
  • Brandon Drury (2.165) – $1.4MM
  • Joe Biagini (2.134) – $1.0MM

Braves (8)

  • Kevin Gausman (4.151) – $9.2MM
  • Mike Foltynewicz (3.163) – $5.5MM
  • Arodys Vizcaino (5.168) – $4.8MM
  • Adam Duvall (3.096) – $3.1MM
  • Dan Winkler (4.000) – $1.6MM
  • Jonny Venters (5.159) – $1.5MM – signed for $2.25MM
  • Sam Freeman (4.066) – $1.5MM
  • Charlie Culberson (3.084) – $1.4MM

Brewers (10)

  • Travis Shaw (3.088) – $5.1MM
  • Corey Knebel (3.151) – $4.9MM
  • Jimmy Nelson (4.107) – $3.7MM
  • Hernan Perez (4.079) – $2.7MM – signed for $2.5MM
  • Junior Guerra (2.155) – $2.7MM
  • Zach Davies (3.020) – $2.4MM
  • Domingo Santana (3.024) – $2.0MM
  • Manny Piña (3.046) – $1.8MM
  • Erik Kratz (4.156) – $1.7MM – signed for $1.2MM
  • Tyler Saladino (3.053) – $1.0MM – signed for $887.5K

Cardinals (4)

  • Marcell Ozuna (5.124) – $13.4MM
  • Michael Wacha (5.062) – $6.6MM
  • Dominic Leone (3.123) – $1.3MM
  • Chasen Shreve (3.167) – $1.2MM – signed for $900K

Cubs (7)

  • Kris Bryant (3.171) – $12.4MM
  • Kyle Hendricks (4.081) – $7.6MM
  • Javier Baez (3.089) – $7.1MM
  • Addison Russell (3.167) – $4.3MM
  • Kyle Schwarber (3.086) – $3.1MM
  • Mike Montgomery (3.089) – $3.0MM
  • Carl Edwards Jr. (2.134) – $1.4MM

Diamondbacks (11)

  • David Peralta (4.120) – $7.7MM
  • Robbie Ray (4.007) – $6.1MM
  • Taijuan Walker (4.142) – $4.825MM
  • Jake Lamb (4.053) – $4.7MM
  • Steven Souza Jr. (4.072) – $4.0MM
  • Nick Ahmed (4.054) – $3.1MM
  • Archie Bradley (3.112) – $2.0MM
  • Andrew Chafin (4.020) – $1.8MM
  • T.J. McFarland (4.164) – $1.4MM
  • Matt Andriese (3.071) – $1.1MM
  • John Ryan Murphy (3.043) – $1.1MM

Dodgers (10)

  • Joc Pederson (4.028) – $4.3MM
  • Enrique Hernandez (4.054) – $3.2MM
  • Chris Taylor (3.037) – $3.2MM
  • Josh Fields (5.083) – $2.8MM
  • Tony Cingrani (5.088) – $2.7MM – signed for $2.65MM
  • Corey Seager (3.032) – $2.6MM
  • Pedro Baez (4.059) – $1.8MM
  • Yimi Garcia (3.149) – $900K

Giants (3)

Indians (7)

Mariners (1)

  • Roenis Elias (3.069) – $1.0MM

Marlins (5)

  • J.T. Realmuto (4.038) – $6.1MM
  • Dan Straily (4.126) – $4.8MM
  • Jose Urena (3.040) – $3.6MM
  • Miguel Rojas (4.043) – $2.6MM
  • Adam Conley (2.147) – $1.3MM

Mets (7)

  • Jacob deGrom (4.139) – $12.9MM
  • Noah Syndergaard (3.149) – $5.9MM
  • Zack Wheeler (5.098) – $5.3MM
  • Michael Conforto (3.043) – $4.4MM
  • Travis d’Arnaud (5.044) – $3.7MM
  • Steven Matz (3.099) – $3.0MM
  • Kevin Plawecki (2.167) – $1.3MM

Nationals (7)

  • Anthony Rendon (5.130) – $17.6MM
  • Tanner Roark (5.055) – $9.8MM
  • Trea Turner (2.135) – $5.3MM
  • Michael Taylor (4.010) – $3.2MM
  • Kyle Barraclough (3.059) – $1.9MM
  • Joe Ross (3.067) – $1.5MM
  • Sammy Solis (3.061) – $900K – signed for $850K

Orioles (3)

  • Jonathan Villar (4.113) – $4.4MM
  • Dylan Bundy (3.026) – $3.0MM
  • Mychal Givens (3.069) – $2.0MM

Padres (6)

  • Kirby Yates (4.021) – $3.0MM
  • Austin Hedges (2.166) – $1.8MM
  • Travis Jankowski (2.169) – $1.4MM
  • Bryan Mitchell (3.049) – $1.2MM – signed for $900K
  • Robbie Erlin (4.078) – $1.1MM
  • Greg Garcia (3.083) – $900K – signed for $910K

Phillies (9)

  • Cesar Hernandez (4.154) – $8.9MM
  • Aaron Nola (3.076) – $6.6MM
  • Maikel Franco (3.170) – $5.1MM
  • Vince Velasquez (3.086) – $2.6MM
  • Hector Neris (3.068) – $2.0MM
  • Jose Alvarez (4.035) – $1.7MM
  • Jerad Eickhoff (3.045) – $1.7MM
  • Aaron Altherr (3.028) – $1.6MM
  • Adam Morgan (3.017) – $1.1MM

Pirates (3)

  • Corey Dickerson (5.101) – $8.4MM
  • Keone Kela (4.000) – $3.2MM
  • Michael Feliz (3.026) – $900K – signed for $850K

Rangers (4)

  • Nomar Mazara (3.000) – $3.7MM
  • Jurickson Profar (4.165) – $3.4MM
  • Delino DeShields Jr. (3.116) – $1.9MM
  • Alex Claudio (3.114) – $1.3MM

Rays (4)

  • Mike Zunino (4.165) – $4.2MM
  • Tommy Pham (3.107) – $4.0MM
  • Matt Duffy (4.059) – $2.6MM
  • Chaz Roe (3.094) – $1.4MM

Red Sox (12)

  • Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM
  • Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM
  • Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM
  • Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM
  • Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM – signed for $1.75MM
  • Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM
  • Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM
  • Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM
  • Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM
  • Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM
  • Blake Swihart (2.164) –  $1.1MM

Reds (5)

  • Yasiel Puig (5.102) – $11.3MM
  • Scooter Gennett (5.071) – $10.7MM
  • Alex Wood (5.123) – $9.0MM
  • Jose Peraza (2.141) – $3.6MM
  • Anthony Desclafani (4.062) – $2.1MM
  • Michael Lorenzen (3.159) – $1.9MM
  • Curt Casali (2.151) – $1.3MM

Rockies (8)

  • Nolan Arenado (5.155) – $26.1MM
  • Trevor Story (3.000) – $6.4MM
  • Chad Bettis (4.096) – $3.2MM
  • Jon Gray (3.062) – $3.2MM
  • Tyler Anderson (3.065) – $2.9MM
  • Chris Rusin (4.092) – $1.7MM – signed for $1.6875MM
  • Scott Oberg (3.063) – $1.2MM
  • Tony Wolters (2.161) – $1.1MM

Royals (3)

Tigers (6)

  • Nicholas Castellanos (5.029) – $11.3MM
  • Shane Greene (4.075) – $4.8MM
  • Michael Fulmer (2.157) – $3.0MM
  • Matthew Boyd (2.136) – $3.0MM
  • Daniel Norris (3.073)  -$1.4MM
  • Blaine Hardy (3.108) – $1.2MM

Twins (10)

  • Jake Odorizzi (5.042) – $9.4MM
  • Kyle Gibson (5.039) – $7.9MM
  • C.J. Cron (4.097) – $5.2MM – signed for $4.8MM
  • Eddie Rosario (3.120) – $5.0MM
  • Max Kepler (2.152) – $3.2MM
  • Miguel Sano (3.066) – $3.1MM
  • Ehire Adrianza (4.131) – $1.8MM – signed for $1.3MM
  • Taylor Rogers (2.145) – $1.6MM
  • Byron Buxton (2.160) – $1.2MM
  • Trevor May (4.012) – $1.1MM

White Sox (5)

  • Jose Abreu (5.000) – $16MM
  • Alex Colome (4.118) – $7.3MM
  • Yolmer Sanchez (3.134) – $4.7MM
  • Carlos Rodon (3.168) – $3.7MM
  • Leury Garcia (4.025) – $1.9MM – signed for $1.55MM

Yankees (9)

  • Didi Gregorius (5.159) – $12.4MM
  • Sonny Gray (5.061) – $9.1MM
  • Dellin Betances (5.078) – $6.4MM
  • Aaron Hicks (5.041) – $6.2MM
  • James Paxton (4.151) – $9.0MM
  • Luis Severino (2.170) – $5.1MM
  • Austin Romine (5.045) – $2.0MM
  • Tommy Kahnle (3.131) – $1.5MM
  • Greg Bird (3.053) – $1.5MM

Rays Announce Extension With Manager Kevin Cash

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9:50am: It’s now official, with the Rays announcing the deal.

8:24am: The Rays have agreed to a long-term extension with skipper Kevin Cash, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. While not yet official, the deal is expected to be formally announced in short order.

It’s a lengthy new commitment for the Rays, who have now installed Cash through the 2024 season. The contract also includes an option for another year, per Topkin, with financial details still unknown. This pact replaces the prior deal that, according to the report, still included one more season and a two-year option. (Prior indications were that Cash’s deal was for five years in duration, but it seems the final pair of campaigns had not been guaranteed.)

Cash guided the Tampa Bay club to a 90-72 record this season, utilizing a variety of unorthodox means of deploying the roster. While that wasn’t enough to earn a spot in the postseason, the showing created quite a bit of optimism in the near future. It also obviously demonstrated to the front office that Cash is the right person to translate their theories into action.

While it has long seemed that Cash was in harmony with the higher-ups, the results had lagged over his first three years on the job. Hired in a 2014-15 offseason that saw massive organizational change — top baseball ops exec Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon both left town — Cash ended up overseeing a pair of middling 80-82 campaigns sandwiched around a brutal 2016 effort (68-94).

As the 2018 campaign approached, the Tampa Bay organization was under pressure. Panned by the media and pursued by the MLBPA for their cost cutting, the Rays were forced to defend their decision to sell off a series of still-controlled veteran players late in the offseason. The club ended up shipping out yet more veterans, with staff ace Chris Archer (link) following catcher Wilson Ramos (link), starter Nathan Eovaldi (link), closer Alex Colome and outfielder Denard Span (link) out the door during the course of the season.

Despite the exodus of MLB talent, the roster performed admirably. As late in the season as August 5th, the Rays sat at .500. But the team finished on a 34-16 tear. Cash, aided by a data-driven ops department, wielded a variety of emerging young players to excellent effect.

When the season closed, the Rays were left looking at an intriguing depth chart, largely blank future balance sheet, and lauded farm system. There’s even renewed hope of enhanced future revenues, as the organization pursues new ballpark plans, though that’ll certainly take some time and still faces hurdles. Further success on the field would no doubt be a welcome development from a business perspective.

Cash, then, will again be tasked with squeezing value from every corner of the roster. He’ll enter this new phase of his stint with a big vote of confidence and ample job security. Expectations, too, are raised. Much of his roster is set, though it’ll certainly be interesting to see what sort of additional tinkering is pursued over the winter to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays Acquire Julian Merryweather To Complete Josh Donaldson Trade

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The Indians announced the completion of the August 31st Josh Donaldson trade today, sending right-hander Julian Merryweather to Toronto as expected.

To make room for Merryweather on the 40-man roster, Jon Berti was designated for assignment, per Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi. The 28-year-old Berti got his first taste of the big leagues this season, starting four games at second base and hitting .267 for the Blue Jays in September.

Playoff contributions notwithstanding, we now know Cleveland’s return on this deal – Donaldson’s small-sample September batting line of .280/.400/.520 across 16 games was good for 0.7 rWAR and a stellar 146 OPS+. With the division locked up for most of the season, Donaldson’s acquisition was designed for the playoffs, beginning today in Houston – still, they seem to have gotten a fair imitation of the bat they were hoping for thus far.

Fancred’s Jon Heyman reported last month that Merryweather would be the PTBNL, but at the time the right-hander wasn’t healthy enough to be passed through waivers – having undergone Tommy John surgery in Spring Training. Merryweather missed the entire 2018 season, but because he was on the minor-league disabled list, he has yet to accrue any MLB service time.

The Blue Jays are banking on Merryweather being more valuable than the compensatory draft pick they would have received if they issued – and Donaldson rejected – a qualifying offer. Perhaps they were wary of Donaldson accepting, which we now know would cost them $17.9 MM for 2019, but whether their thinking was financial, evaluative, or simply in the interest of keeping third-base unoccupied for uberprospect Vlad Guerrero Jr., the return for the 2015 AL MVP now hinges on the health and continued development of Merryweather.

Before losing the 2018 season to Tommy John, the 6’4″ right-hander was 17th on Baseball America’s list of Cleveland prospects. He’s on the older side for a player yet to make his MLB debut (he’ll turn 27 on October 14th), but he pitched well enough in AA as a 25-year-old to turn some heads, and he has an arsenal that could play up to the level of a mid-rotation starter, per Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. Merryweather may end up in the bullpen, but remember, a rising tide lifts all boats, and the past few Octobers have done nothing if not raise the value of tweener bullpen arms like Merryweather.

It’s not a flashy return, but six to seven years of a control for a near Major League-ready arm is nothing to scoff at. There’s health and development that need to break in Merryweather’s favor, but a supplemental draft pick was no less risky and ultimately, Toronto adds a controllable arm in exchange for an injured player on his way out of town. That undersells Donaldson’s impact in Toronto (as well as his abilities on the field), not to mention what they might have netted if they’d moved him last offseason – but if you squint hard enough, Merryweather’s upside at least hints at the possibility that Donaldson’s free agency isn’t a total loss.

Dan Duquette Won’t Return To Orioles; Team Will Hire New GM From Outside Organization

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7:10pm: The Orioles have announced that neither Duquette nor Showalter will be retained for the 2019 season. Director of player development Brian Graham will oversee baseball operations while the team conducts a search for an outside hire. He’s been with the team since 2007 and previously served as an interim GM for the Pirates as well.

“The club will hire an executive from outside of the organization to lead the Baseball Operations department,” the Orioles said in tonight’s press release. “Once in place, this individual will have the final determination on all baseball matters that he or she believes will make the Orioles successful on the field, entertaining to fans, and impactful in the community.”

5:06pm: The Orioles have indeed moved on from Duquette, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman.

4:59pm: Not only will the Orioles reportedly part ways with manager Buck Showalter, they’re also “expected to let go” executive vice president/general manager Dan Duquette, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Dan Duquette

Like Showalter, Duquette’s contract expires at the end of the 2018 season. However, while reports in recent weeks had largely indicated that Showalter was likely to depart, the general sense was that the organization would hang onto Duquette. Instead, it now seems that the Orioles will be looking for both a new field manager and a new head of baseball operations this offseason.

Duquette, 60, has been with the O’s since the 2011 season and helped to orchestrate three postseason appearances, including an AL East division title in 2014. That said, Duquette’s fingerprints are also on the 2018 season’s MLB-worst 47-115 team — the fewest wins in franchise history. Not all of that disappointment can be placed on Duquette alone, as owner Peter Angelos has had his own detrimental impact on the organization at times. While Angelos gave the front office plenty of payroll capacity with which to work, he also reportedly had little interest in investing on the international amateur free agent market and was also said to be instrumental in bringing back Chris Davis on what is perhaps baseball’s worst contract at this point.

Duquette’s tenure with the O’s featured some notable successes — e.g. signing Nelson Cruz when his market collapsed in the 2013-14 offseason, extending J.J. Hardy, the initial acquisition of Mark Trumbo for pennies on the dollar — but there were as many, if not more missteps along the way as well. Free-agent deals for Ubaldo Jimenez and Yovani Gallardo proved to be busts, and the trade sending Jake Arrieta to the Cubs will go down as one of the more lopsided swaps in recent history, even if Arrieta had plenty of chances in Baltimore and was considered to be a project at the time of the deal.

Whoever steps into the GM chair in Baltimore, be it vice president Brady Anderson or an outside hire, will take over a rebuild that Duquette kicked off in earnest this past summer with the trade of Manny Machado to the Dodgers. The Orioles netted five prospects in that trade and, not long after, had also shipped out Jonathan Schoop, Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Kevin Gausman and the remainder of the injured Darren O’Day’s contract — netting a combined 13 new prospects and some significant international funds to aid their reported pursuit of Cuban phenom Victor Victor Mesa.

The Orioles’ farm system has improved with those deals and with the success of some recent draft picks, but the organization still faces a long road back to contention in a stacked AL East division that features a pair of powerhouses in the Red Sox and Yankees, plus a surprising 90-win Rays team that has an impressive young core of stars around which to build.

Qualifying Offer Value Set At $17.9 Million

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The qualifying offer value for the upcoming offseason has been set at $17.9MM, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That value, which is determined by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players, represents a $500K increase from last offseason’s mark of $17.4MM.

Any team wishing to receive draft compensation for the loss of a free agent will first have to make that free agent a one-year offer worth that $17.9MM value. Qualifying offer recipients will have 10 days to decide whether to accept or reject the offer and are free to talk with other clubs during that window as they get an early sense of their market value. If a player accepts, he is considered signed for the 2019 season at that rate. Like other free-agent signings, that player would be ineligible to be traded, without his consent, prior to June 15 of the following season.

Only players who spent the entire 2018 season with the same organization are eligible to receive a qualifying offer; midseason trade acquisitions and signings cannot receive one. Additionally, the 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement also added the stipulation that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their career. That distinction primarily impacts Nelson Cruz, as the rest of the players who have received previous qualifying offers have either already been traded (e.g. Daniel Murphy) or haven’t performed well enough to be a candidate for a second qualifying offer anyhow (e.g. Neil Walker). Cruz would quite likely have been a candidate to receive a second qualifying offer, but the new CBA makes that impossible.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a recent look at the upcoming free-agent class, writing that Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw (if/when he exercises his opt-out clause), A.J. Pollock, Craig Kimbrel, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal can be considered among the locks to receive a qualifying offer (I’d agree with all of those and add Charlie Morton to that bucket as well). Mark also took an in-depth look at a number of borderline cases throughout the league.

Draft compensation under the new system is more complicated than it was under the 2012-16 CBA, as both luxury tax spending and revenue sharing are now factored in to determine the specific penalty and compensation associated with qualified free agents. Each team’s top overall draft pick is protected, but teams with multiple first-round picks can lose their late first-rounders in some cases. Here’s a crash course/reminder.

For teams that signs a qualified free agent…

  • A team that received revenue sharing the previous season will forfeit its third-highest selection upon. Signing a second qualified would result in the loss of that team’s fourth-highest selection. Signing a third would result in the loss of its fifth-highest selection.
  • A team that did not receive revenue sharing and also did not pay any luxury tax penalties would lose its second-highest selection as well as $500K of the league’s allotted international bonus pool. Signing additional qualified free agents would result in forfeiting the third-highest selection and another $500K of international allotments.
  • A team that paid luxury tax penalties must forfeit both its second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2019 draft and forfeit $1MM of international funds. Signing a second would result in the loss of that team’s third- and sixth-highest picks, plus another $1MM in international funds.

For teams who lose qualified free agents…

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

Addison Russell Receives 40-Game Suspension

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3:20pm: The League announced that Russell has been suspended without pay for 40 games. That suspension is retroactive to Sept. 21, the date he was placed on administrative leave. That ban will carry over into 2019, rendering him ineligible to play for the season’s first month or so. Russell will not appeal the suspension, per the announcement.

3:06pm: Cubs shortstop Addison Russell will be suspended under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago (via Twitter). The precise length of his ban is not yet certain, though Rogers suggests it’ll be between 25 and 40 games.

Russell, 24, was placed on administrative leave in September after allegations of physical and verbal abuse were brought forth by his ex-wife, Melisa Reidy. Commissioner Rob Manfred had already conducted an investigation into Russell last year after a friend of his ex-wife made allegations at the time, via social media. Reidy didn’t cooperate with the investigation at the time — a decision which she explained to Rogers in an interview that is well worth a full read for those who’ve yet to gather the full details of this situation.

The 25- to 40-game length of the ban will make Russell’s suspension one of the lighter punishments handed out by Manfred under the current policy. Earlier this season, Roberto Osuna received a 75-game suspension, and other high-profile cases have included Hector Olivera (82 games), Jose Reyes (51 games) and Aroldis Chapman (30 games). Suspensions for Olivera, Reyes and Osuna all came after criminal charges were pressed, however (resulting in jail time for Olivera; charges against Reyes were eventually dropped, while Osuna agreed to a one-year peace bond as the charge was withdrawn).

Criminal charges have not yet been brought forth against Russell, and there’s no clear indication that they ever will. Regardless, the suspension severely clouds Russell’s future with the organization. The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney recently reported (subscription required) that there has been a “sense around the team” that Russell has played his final game as a Cub.

Should the Cubs elect to retain Russell, he’ll be under club control through the 2021 season (this suspension’s length won’t impact his free-agent timeline). He’d be due a raise on this season’s $3.2MM salary after posting a dismal .250/.317/.340 batting line through 465 games. If not, he can be non-tendered and sent out into free agency, with Javier Baez likely sliding over to assume regular shortstop duties.

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