Red Sox Exercise Clay Buchholz’s Option, Decline Option On Ryan Hanigan
8:09pm: The Red Sox have also announced that they’ve picked up their 2017 option on David Ortiz. The move is a formality, since Ortiz is expected to retire.
2:30pm: Drellich also writes that the Red Sox plan to pick up Clay Buchholz‘s $13.5MM club option, and Heyman tweeted that the team will indeed do so. Buchholz had a $500K buyout on the option, so the decision boiled down to a $13MM call for Boston. (The team has announced both option decisions.)
Buchholz, who turned 32 in August, struggled with the Red Sox for much of the season and at one point lost his spot in the starting rotation. However, despite a brief demotion to the bullpen, Buchholz finished the year quite strongly, logging a 3.14 ERA in 28 2/3 innings in September and a 2.86 ERA over his final 44 innings. He’s also a season removed from 113 1/3 innings of 3.26 ERA ball that came with outstanding peripherals. Given the lack of quality options on the free-agent market and the fact that Buchholz generated summer trade interest even before his strong finish to the year, there was an argument to exercise Buchholz’s option even if he’s traded elsewhere this offseason, as MLBTR detailed a couple of weeks ago.
1:56pm: The Red Sox have declined catcher Ryan Hanigan‘s $3.75MM option for 2017 in favor of an $800K buyout, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reported earlier Thursday that the Red Sox were likely to let Hanigan go.
Hanigan joined the Red Sox in December 2014 in a trade that sent third baseman Will Middlebrooks to the Padres, with whom Hanigan never actually played a game. The Red Sox didn’t lose much in dealing Middlebrooks, but Hanigan was still a disappointment in Boston. After establishing himself as a defensively capable backstop with solid offensive skills in Cincinnati and Tampa Bay, Hanigan batted just .219/.298/.294 in two years and 319 plate appearances with the Red Sox. He finished third among Boston’s catchers this year in PAs (113), trailing Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez, and posted an unusable .171/.230/.238 line. That was poor enough for Boston to wave goodbye to Hanigan, who will try to hook on elsewhere in free agency.
In addition to Leon and Vazquez, the Red Sox also have Blake Swihart as a potential catcher option for next season. The outfield/backstop missed most of this year with an ankle injury. Alternatively, Boston could look to free agency for help, especially if it doesn’t trust Leon’s unexpected breakout.
Mets Intend To Make Qualifying Offer To Neil Walker
The Mets intend to make a $17.2MM qualifying offer to impending free agent Neil Walker, reports ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin. Around this time last month, Rubin reported that Walker would likely receive the QO so long as his recovery from the season-ending back surgery he underwent in September progressed well. It would seem, then, that Walker’s rehab remains on track.
Walker, 31, came to the Mets from the Pirates last winter in a one-for-one swap that sent Jon Niese to Pittsburgh. New York clearly got the better end of the deal, as Walker was one of the team’s best hitters, batting .282/.347/.476 and tying a career-high with 23 home runs. While his defense has been questioned in the past, he drew strong marks from both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved in 2016 and was a slam-dunk qualifying offer candidate prior to undergoing the aforementioned back surgery.
While some may question the Mets’ wisdom, if Walker’s recovery from the operation is going well, he’s a strong candidate to receive a multi-year deal that will guarantee him considerably more than he’d earn by accepting the QO. A sizable four-year deal seemed likely for Walker before his surgery, and while four years doesn’t feel as likely in the wake of his operation, a three-year pact at a considerable annual value would still be a more lucrative offer than a one-year deal at a higher rate. If Walker does decline the qualifying offer, any team that wishes to sign him will forfeit its top unprotected draft pick (the top 10 overall selections in the draft are protected), and the Mets will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round.
In the event that Walker departs, the Mets aren’t short on internal options to replace him at second base. Jose Reyes‘ league-minimum option will be exercised by the team, and Wilmer Flores has plenty of experience at second base as well. Beyond that, rookie T.J. Rivera emerged from Triple-A Las Vegas and showed well in September this season, giving the Mets a variety of options to vie for playing time in 2017.
Twins Hire Rangers’ Thad Levine As GM
The Twins have announced the hiring of former Rangers assistant general manager Thad Levine as their new senior vice president and GM. Though he’ll receive a promotion in terms of title, Levine will still serve as second-in-command to newly tabbed executive vice president/chief baseball officer Derek Falvey in the Twins’ baseball operations hierarchy.
“I couldn’t envision a better partner to help return championship-caliber baseball to Minnesota,” said Falvey. “Thad’s leadership and management experiences across all facets of baseball operations make him the perfect fit for the role, and I’m looking forward to executing our vision together.”
Levine, who will turn 45 on Nov. 12, had been with the Rangers since the 2005 season. His responsibilities in Texas included assisting GM Jon Daniels with player acquisition, roster composition, contract negotiations and statistical/financial analysis. He also oversaw the team’s international scouting operations. The veteran baseball executive also previously served as the senior director of baseball operations with the Rockies. He’ll bring to the Twins an executive with a long background in player development but also one who is quite familiar with more modern trends in statistical analysis.
According to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minnapolis Star Tribune, the Twins had interest in now-former Red Sox vice president of international scouting Amiel Sawdaye before he followed colleague Mike Hazen to Arizona. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported that the Twins’ offer to Sawdaye was an assistant GM position, so he apparently was never in the running for the No. 2 spot that ultimately went to Levine. The fact that Minnesota was offering additional AGM slots to outside hires, though, does suggest that there could be further changes to the Twins’ front office even after adding Falvey and Levine.
Neal and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News first reported that the Twins would hire Levine. FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported Thursday that Levine’s hiring was imminent.
Cardinals Extend Mike Matheny Through 2020
The Cardinals and manager Mike Matheny have agreed to a three-year contract extension that runs through the 2020 season, the team announced.
Matheny was previously in danger of entering the 2017 campaign as a lame duck, though owner Bill DeWitt Jr. gave the 46-year-old a vote of confidence in late September.
“Mike’s done a really good job for us,” said DeWitt. “There’s no thought that we’re going to go in any different direction.”
In terms of wins and losses, the five-year Matheny era has been a productive one for the Cardinals, who have finished with no fewer than 86 victories in any individual season and have made the playoffs four times. Overall, the club has gone 461-349 in the regular season under Matheny, whose crowning playoff achievement is a National League pennant in 2013. St. Louis missed the postseason this year, but general manager John Mozeliak doesn’t blame Matheny for that.
“Mike takes a lot of heat, and I’ve defended him and I will continue to,” Mozeliak said late in the regular season. “I really feel like some of the things that we’re dealing with aren’t fair to put on the manager.”
While Matheny has indeed taken heat from outside the Cardinals organization, it’s clear the team’s front office values the job he has done as the manager. If Matheny sees his extension through, it’ll give him 14 combined years with the franchise as a player and manager. The longtime major league catcher was the Cardinals’ primary backstop from 2000-2004.
The MLB Offseason Begins
The 2016 Major League Baseball season ended Wednesday at Progressive Field in Cleveland with one of the most memorable Game 7s in the history of the sport. It took four-plus hours, 10 innings and a rain delay, but the Cubs defeated the Indians, 8-7, to overcome a 3-1 series deficit and break their 108-year World Series drought.
One of many heroes for Chicago was left fielder Ben Zobrist, who delivered a tie-breaking double off Indians reliever Bryan Shaw in the top of the 10th. That was the 10th hit of the Fall Classic for Zobrist, who took home World Series MVP honors. After winning a title with the Royals last November, Zobrist joined the Cubs in free agency on a four-year, $56MM deal during the offseason. The Zobrist acquisition will go down as one of seemingly countless great moves by the Cubs’ front office, led by president and chief architect Theo Epstein. Having now put so-called curses in Boston and Chicago to rest, Epstein has cemented his place in Cooperstown.
While Epstein, general manager Jed Hoyer and the rest of the Cubs’ executives will savor this triumph, their work won’t stop. With the major league offseason already starting Thursday, the Cubs will spend the next several months trying to put their roster in position to repeat in 2017. Meanwhile, the majors’ other 29 franchises will attempt to make the moves necessary to overtake the Cubs. Maybe one of those teams will even sign next fall’s version of Zobrist during the upcoming winter.
With that preamble out of the way, here are some of the offseason’s key dates:
- Nov. 3: Beginning at 9 a.m. ET, teams will have an exclusive five-day negotiation window with their impending free agents.
- Nov. 7: By 5 p.m. ET, teams must submit qualifying offers to their upcoming free agents. The QO is worth $17.2MM, up from $15.8MM last year. This is also the deadline for clubs to exercise their 2017 options over players whose contracts include them.
- Nov. 8-10: General managers’ meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz. While not as active as December’s Winter Meetings, the groundwork for many trades and signings will take place here, and a few moves figure to be completed.
- Nov. 8: Free agents become eligible to sign with any team.
- Nov. 14: Players must choose to accept or reject qualifying offers by 5 p.m. ET. Those who decline will become free agents.
- Dec. 1: The collective bargaining agreement between the league and the players’ union expires. Click here for the latest on CBA negotiations.
- Dec. 2: Deadline for teams to decide whether to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. The free agent market should expand to some degree on this day, albeit with relatively minor names.
- Dec. 4-8: Winter Meetings in National Harbor, Md. This period is among the most chaotic of the year for those who follow trades and free agency — often even more so than the days leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline. MLBTR will provide extensive coverage while the Winter Meetings are in effect. The meetings with conclude with the Rule 5 draft on Dec. 8.
If you’d like to prepare for the madness ahead, check out the free agent list Steve Adams and Tim Dierkes have been updating since March 2015 (please let us know via the contact form if there are any omissions). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are a must-read every year, as is the writing staff’s Offseason Outlook series. We’ll also check in on some soon-to-be available players with our Free Agent Profile series, and Tim will rank the 50 best free agents of this year’s class by potential earning power and predict where each will sign. Although the open market won’t be rife with appealing free agents this offseason, the next few months will still feature plenty of excitement. We’re looking forward to covering the action.
Jeurys Familia’s Court Date Pushed Back
NOV. 2: Familia’s court date has been pushed back to Nov. 10, tweets Newsday’s Jim Baumbach.
NOV. 1, 9:42pm: Ken Davidoff and Kenneth Garger of the New York Post report that Familia’s wife, Bianca, is the previously unidentified victim, as her name was redacted from initial reports. Familia told Dominican reporter Hector Gomez: “Somebody is trying to damage my reputation with this info. I’m at peace with my family.” (Twitter link) However, The Post’s report cites the authorities and anonymous court officials in providing details of Familia’s arrest, including the fact that he was arraigned at the Fort Lee police station on Monday and released on $1,500 bail. Familia, according to Davidoff and Garger, is due back in court on Thursday.
2:11pm: Mets closer Jeurys Familia has been arrested and charged with simple assault in an alleged domestic violence incident, according to a report from Andrew Wyrich and Abbott Koloff of the Record.
Public judicial records suggest that the 27-year-old pitcher is alleged to have caused bodily injury to an unidentified person, with police officers stating in the filing that there was probable cause “to believe that domestic violence had occurred.” A “scratch to the chest and a bruise to the right cheek of the victim” are said to have been observed.
The incident in question occurred early Monday morning in Fort Lee, New Jersey, per the court documents. That is where Familia, 27, resides with his wife and young child, according to the report.
The Mets provided a statement to the Record on the subject, stating: “The matter was brought to our attention and we are monitoring the situation.” Major League Baseball says that it has opened an investigation into the matter, according to James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter).
It is certainly too soon to know where this matter may lead. Needless to say, the primary concern is with the victim and their loved ones.
Baseball (like other professional sports leagues) has struggled to deal with several high-profile domestic violence matters that have allegedly been perpetuated by its players. The league and player’s union agreed to a domestic violence protocol that vests significant power in the commissioner to assess and punish domestic violence offenders, whether or not they are arrested, charged, or convicted.
That policy was quickly put to the test by Jose Reyes, who was charged with assaulting his wife (though he never went to trial) and was ultimately suspended for 52 games. Aroldis Chapman also received a ban, in his case thirty games, though he was neither arrested nor charged in the incident in question. And Hector Olivera was punished with an 82-game suspension following an assault for which he was ultimately convicted.
Reyes later joined Familia with the Mets and is expected to stay with the team next year by operation of a club option. At the time, the organization suggested that Reyes “deserved a second chance,” in the words of GM Sandy Alderson. “I came away feeling that he had taken responsibility for this mistake on his part, that he was remorseful,” Alderson said of Reyes. “He obviously has paid a penalty for this, both financially and in terms of his career.”
As with Reyes, Familia’s situation has arisen in the offseason, meaning that the league will likely not need to utilize its powers to impose a paid administrative leave period pending investigation — at least initially. Reyes was later placed on administrative leave while the league awaited the results of the legal proceedings that had been initiated against him.
Looking ahead at hypothetical consequences, if Familia ultimately is suspended, he would not be entitled to his pay during the period of any ban. He is projected to earn $8.7MM in 2017, his second season of arbitration eligibility. It is not apparent whether Familia has gained U.S. citizenship, so it is also possible that any conviction could not only result in jail time but also carry consequences relating to his ability to continue working and residing in the United States.
Greg Holland Set For Showcase Within The Next Week
Former Royals closer Greg Holland, who missed the 2016 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery that he underwent last October, has thrown off a mound three to four times and is set to host a showcase for interested teams within the next week, agent Scott Boras tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Per Boras, Holland’s velocity is currently in the low 90s, and the showcase will take place either at Boras’ sports facility in Florida or near Holland’s North Carolina home.
Holland, 30, was one of the game’s elite relievers prior to tearing his ulnar collateral ligament and requiring surgery. From 2011-14, he amassed 113 saves for the Royals while recording a minuscule 1.86 ERA with a 358-to-91 K/BB ratio in 256 1/3 innings (12.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9). Adding in his postseason work in 2015 tacks on another 11 innings of one-run ball with 15 strikeouts against five walks.
However, Holland’s numbers took a turn for the worse in 2015, as he worked to a solid-but-unspectacular 3.83 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 5.2 BB/9. His average fastball, which once sat a tick over 96 mph, was instead a more pedestrian 93.6 mph. Clearly, something was wrong with Holland, and manager Ned Yost made the shocking revelation at the time his ligament tear was reported that it appeared Holland actually tore his UCL late in the 2014 season, meaning he pitched the entire 2014 postseason and the entire 2015 campaign with a torn UCL. The extent of the tear was likely minimal in nature at first, but by the end of that ’15 season, it was reported to be a “significant” tear — hardly a surprise after more than a year of pitching through the injury.
Back to the present day, Boras tells Sherman that his client is “back at it full steam” and suggested that his client’s market will be “interesting” in light of the value that is being placed on premium bullpen arms in the postseason. While Holland comes with considerably less certainty than the free-agent market’s top relief arms — Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon — the upside of signing him is tantalizing, especially considering the fact that he’ll 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery when Spring Training opens.
Holland has already been linked to the Royals recently, but teams in search of top-tier bullpen arms figure to certainly check in with Boras — especially those that miss out on the aforementioned free agents. Teams that seem likely to pursue high-end relief arms this winter include the Giants, Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees and Nationals, though Holland’s price point should be reasonable enough that even clubs that won’t go anywhere near the big three relievers at their expected asking prices could view Holland as an opportunity to add a comparable talent at a reduced rate.
Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2017
As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the sixth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2017. The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2016 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).
The Super Two cutoff will be 2.131. Service time data in this post is now official. The official MLB minimum is not yet known, but we’re using $508K.
If you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us. I should note that we are creating subjective projections for Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig, outside of the arbitration model, given those players’ existing MLB contracts and the related intricacies. A full post on Abreu can be found here.
Angels (5)
- Danny Espinosa (5.113) – $5.3MM
- Martin Maldonado (4.156) – $1.6MM
- Garrett Richards (4.148) – $7.0MM
- Kole Calhoun (3.130) – $6.9MM
- Matt Shoemaker (2.166) – $3.8MM
Astros (7)
- Nori Aoki (4.148) – $6.8MM
- Marwin Gonzalez (4.133) – $3.6MM
- Dallas Keuchel (4.089) – $9.5MM
- Will Harris (3.102) – $2.5MM
- Mike Fiers (3.085) – $4.3MM
- Collin McHugh (3.085) – $4.6MM
- George Springer (2.166) – $4.7MM
- Jake Marisnick (2.145) – $1.1MM
Athletics (5)
- Yonder Alonso (5.116) – $4.1MM
- Khris Davis (3.104) – $5.0MM
- Stephen Vogt (3.084) – $3.7MM
- Sonny Gray (3.061) – $3.7MM
- Liam Hendriks (3.038) – $1.0MM
Blue Jays (4)
- Darwin Barney (5.085) – $1.6MM
- Aaron Loup (4.040) – $1.2MM
- Ezequiel Carrera (3.039) – $1.2MM
- Marcus Stroman (2.148) – $3.5MM
Braves (7)
- Josh Collmenter (5.144) – $2.2MM
- Anthony Recker (4.000) – $1.0MM
- Arodys Vizcaino (3.168) – $1.6MM
- Paco Rodriguez (3.120) – $900K
- Ian Krol (2.149) – $1.0MM
- Tuffy Gosewisch (2.154) – $600K
Brewers (4)
- Carlos Torres (4.114) – $2.0MM
- Wily Peralta (3.160) – $4.4MM
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3.112) – $1.6MM
- Scooter Gennett (3.071) – $3.0MM
- Chase Anderson (2.146) – $3.1MM
Cardinals (5)
- Trevor Rosenthal (4.058) – $6.3MM
- Matt Adams (4.033) – $2.8MM
- Kevin Siegrist (3.116) – $1.9MM
- Carlos Martinez (3.073) – $5.3MM
- Michael Wacha (3.062) – $3.2MM
Cubs (4)
- Pedro Strop (5.156) – $5.5MM
- Jake Arrieta (5.145) – $16.8MM
- Hector Rondon (4.000) – $5.7MM
- Justin Grimm (3.170) – $1.8MM
Diamondbacks (6)
- Patrick Corbin (4.105) – $4.2MM
- Randall Delgado (4.100) – $1.9MM
- Shelby Miller (3.166) – $4.9MM
- Chris Owings (3.027) – $2.1MM
- Chris Herrmann (3.001) – $1.0MM
- Taijuan Walker (2.142) – $2.8MM
Dodgers (7)
- Yasmani Grandal (4.115) – $5.3MM
- Luis Avilan (3.146) – $1.5MM
- Scott Van Slyke (3.151) – $1.3MM
- Chris Hatcher (3.146) – $1.4MM
- Alex Wood (3.123) – $2.0MM
- Josh Fields (3.092) – $1.2MM
- Vidal Nuno (3.015) – $1.1MM
Giants (6)
- Eduardo Nunez (5.090) – $4.4MM
- Conor Gillaspie (4.028) – $900K
- George Kontos (3.171) – $1.7MM
- Will Smith (3.155) – $2.3MM
- Cory Gearrin (3.136) – $1.1MM
- Ehire Adrianza (2.131) – $508K
Indians (8)
- Bryan Shaw (5.081) – $4.5MM
- Lonnie Chisenhall (4.158) – $4.1MM
- Zach McAllister (4.077) – $1.7MM
- Cody Allen (4.076) – $7.7MM
- Brandon Guyer (4.066) – $2.0MM
- Dan Otero (3.124) – $1.2MM
- Danny Salazar (2.162) – $3.8MM
- Trevor Bauer (2.158) – $3.7MM
Mariners (9)
- Danny Valencia (5.118) – $5.3MM
- Jarrod Dyson (5.088) – $2.5MM
- Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM
- Leonys Martin (4.078) – $6.3MM
- Jean Segura (4.065) – $7.3MM
- Evan Scribner (3.142) – $1.1MM
- Nick Vincent (3.067) – $1.5MM
- James Paxton (2.151) – $2.7MM
- Jesus Sucre (2.137) – $600K
Marlins (6)
- David Phelps (4.156) – $5.2MM
- Adeiny Hechavarria (4.060) – $3.7MM
- A.J. Ramos (4.030) – $6.8MM
- Tom Koehler (4.016) – $6.2MM
- Marcell Ozuna (3.124) – $4.5MM
- Derek Dietrich (2.151) – $1.8MM
Mets (10)
- Lucas Duda (5.137) – $6.725MM
- Rene Rivera (5.070) – $2.2MM
- Addison Reed (5.001) – $10.6MM
- Matt Harvey (4.072) – $5.2MM
- Jeurys Familia (4.030) – $8.7MM
- Zack Wheeler (3.098) – $1.0MM
- Josh Edgin (3.097) – $800K
- Travis d’Arnaud (3.044) – $1.7MM
- Wilmer Flores (3.003) – $1.9MM
- Jacob deGrom (2.139) – $4.5MM
Nationals (5)
- Jose Lobaton (5.138) – $1.6MM
- Bryce Harper (4.159) – $9.3MM
- Derek Norris (4.102) – $4.0MM
- Anthony Rendon (3.130) – $6.4MM
- Tanner Roark (3.055) – $6.1MM
Orioles (9)
- Chris Tillman (5.113) – $10.6MM
- Ryan Flaherty (5.000) – $1.7MM
- Zach Britton (4.158) – $11.4MM
- Brad Brach (4.063) – $2.9MM
- Manny Machado (4.056) – $11.2MM
- Jonathan Schoop (3.027) – $3.4MM
- T.J. McFarland (3.006) – $700K
- Kevin Gausman (2.151) – $3.9MM
- Caleb Joseph (2.145) – $1.0MM
Padres (6)
- Carter Capps (4.007) – $1.0MM
- Wil Myers (3.104) – $4.7MM
- Brad Hand (3.092) – $1.4MM
- Brandon Maurer (3.089) – $1.7MM
- Christian Friedrich (3.046) – $2.0MM
- Yangervis Solarte (3.000) – $2.7MM
Phillies (3)
- Jeanmar Gomez (5.063) – $4.6MM
- Freddy Galvis (4.021) – $4.4MM
- Cesar Hernandez (2.154) – $2.5MM
Pirates (7)
- Tony Watson (5.101) – $5.9MM
- Juan Nicasio (5.084) – $4.6MM
- Jared Hughes (4.162) – $2.5MM
- Jordy Mercer (4.095) – $4.0MM
- Drew Hutchison (3.165) – $2.2MM
- Wade LeBlanc (3.131) – $1.6MM
- Gerrit Cole (3.111) – $4.2MM
Rangers (7)
- Robinson Chirinos (4.103) – $2.1MM
- Tanner Scheppers (4.094) – $1.1MM
- Jake Diekman (4.050) – $2.6MM
- A.J. Griffin (4.034) – $1.9MM
- Jurickson Profar (3.124) – $1.1MM
- Jeremy Jeffress (3.104) – $2.9MM
- Sam Dyson (2.142) – $3.9MM
Rays (9)
- Alex Cobb (5.061) – $4.0MM
- Erasmo Ramirez (3.158) – $3.5MM
- Brad Boxberger (3.109) – $1.5MM
- Corey Dickerson (3.101) – $3.4MM
- Brad Miller (3.094) – $3.8MM
- Xavier Cedeno (3.060) – $1.2MM
- Jake Odorizzi (3.042) – $4.6MM
- Danny Farquhar (2.170) – $1.1MM
- Kevin Kiermaier (2.131) – $2.1MM
Red Sox (10)
- Fernando Abad (5.073) – $2.0MM
- Robbie Ross Jr. (4.100) – $1.8MM
- Joe Kelly (4.029) – $2.6MM
- Drew Pomeranz (4.013) – $4.7MM
- Tyler Thornburg (3.057) – $2.2MM
- Brock Holt (3.052) – $1.7MM
- Xander Bogaerts (3.042) – $5.7MM
- Brandon Workman (3.018) – $600K
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (2.150) – $3.3MM
- Sandy Leon (2.149) – $1.3MM
Reds (4)
- Zack Cozart (5.084) – $4.7MM
- Blake Wood (4.131) – $2.1MM
- Tony Cingrani (3.088) – $1.9MM
- Billy Hamilton (3.028) – $2.3MM
Rockies (5)
- Jake McGee (5.127) – $6.1MM
- Tyler Chatwood (5.039) – $4.8MM
- Jordan Lyles (5.021) – $3.3MM
- Charlie Blackmon (4.102) – $9.0MM
- Nolan Arenado (3.155) – $13.1MM
Royals (3)
- Eric Hosmer (5.146) – $13.3MM
- Danny Duffy (5.085) – $8.2MM
- Kelvin Herrera (4.157) – $5.3MM
Tigers (6)
- Andrew Romine (4.049) – $1.2MM
- Jose Iglesias (4.036) – $3.2MM
- Justin Wilson (4.035) – $2.7MM
- Alex Wilson (3.038) – $1.2MM
- Bruce Rondon (3.037) – $900K
- Nick Castellanos (3.029) – $2.8MM
Twins (5)
- Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
- Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
- Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
- Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
- Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM
White Sox (9)
- Miguel Gonzalez (5.084) – $2.6MM
- Todd Frazier (5.071) – $13.5MM
- Brett Lawrie (5.055) – $5.1MM
- Dan Jennings (3.171) – $1.2MM
- Avisail Garcia (3.167) – $3.4MM
- Zach Putnam (3.135) – $975K
- Jake Petricka (3.044) – $900K
Yankees (7)
- Michael Pineda (5.099) – $7.8MM
- Adam Warren (4.036) – $2.3MM
- Didi Gregorius (3.159) – $5.1MM
- Dellin Betances (3.078) – $3.4MM
- Austin Romine (3.045) – $900K
- Aaron Hicks (3.041) – $1.4MM
- Tommy Layne (2.144) – $1.2MM
Current CBA Rules Could “Roll Over” Through Offseason
MLB’s collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, and both MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and MLBPA head Tony Clark have expressed optimism that two parties can avoid a work stoppage. While Manfred had previously said he hoped to have a new deal in place by the end of the postseason, though, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that he hears there is still work to be done, even on the day of what could be the clinching game of the World Series.
It is possible, Sherman writes, that rules from the previous CBA could be “rolled over for at least this offseason.” A rollover of the current rules could potentially keep this winter’s free agent market from stalling by allowing free agents to negotiate with teams without either party worrying about how a new agreement might affect them.
Sherman notes that the two sides have batted around a number of possible changes to the qualifying offer system. One possibility is that MLB could agree to stop taking draft picks from teams that sign free agents who have rejected qualifying offers. (As we’ve seen in the cases of Kyle Lohse, Stephen Drew, Ian Desmond and others in recent years, these draft pick losses reduce free agents’ value, which is why the MLBPA would want to change the current rules.)
Sherman writes that, under the changes being considered, teams losing good free agents would still receive compensation. It remains to be seen what form that compensation would take, although it’s worth noting that, under the previous system, a team that offered a Type B free agent arbitration before his departure received a draft pick, without the signing team having to give up anything. Perhaps MLB and the MLBPA will consider reinstituting a similar system for a certain class of free agents.
Projected Super Two Cutoff
OCTOBER 26: The precise cutoff will be 2.131 years, Dierkes tweets. That means that most of the players noted below will fall short of qualifying, with Kiermaier representing one of the last to sneak into the arb process.
OCTOBER 10: We just published this year’s arbitration projections for all 30 teams this morning, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes follows that up with a report (Twitter link) that the projected Super Two cutoff for this year’s class is expected to fall between two years, 127 days of MLB service time (2.127) and two years, 131 days (2.131). Players who qualify for “Super Two” designation — that is, the top 22 percent of MLB players with between two and three years of service time — will be eligible for arbitration four times as opposed to the standard three that the rest of the league will qualify. That can have significant financial implications for both teams and players, and one needs only to look to this morning’s arbitration projections for proof of that point.
For instance, players such as David Peralta (2.120 years of service, $1.6MM projected salary), Rougned Odor (2.121, $4MM) and Dan Straily (2.126, $3.9MM) would fall a bit shy, as would Jesus Sucre ($600K) and Chase Whitley ($900K). In the case of a team like the Reds or Rangers, there’s already in the vicinity of $4MM at stake, and because future all future arbitration salaries are based on prior earnings, there’s a compounding effect at play as well. Super Two status also impacts extension talks, which the Rangers have reportedly explored with Odor’s camp. With Odor likely to fall shy of Super Two status, the Rangers needn’t offer quite as much as they would have had to were Odor slated to be arbitration-eligible four times, as his year-to-year earnings will be a bit lesser with only three trips through the arbitration process.
Meanwhile, players like Brett Oberholtzer (2.127, $1MM) and Kevin Kiermaier (2.131, $2.1MM) will see their earnings increase at least twofold in 2017 (if the lower end of the spectrum holds true, with regards to Oberholtzer). In Kiermaier’s case, he’d stand to roughly quadruple his salary by virtue of qualifying as a Super Two player.
This year’s cutoff, then, will fall pretty closely in line with the cutoffs we’ve seen over the past two years:
- 2015: 2.130
- 2014: 2.133
- 2013: 2.122
- 2012: 2.140
- 2011: 2.146
- 2010: 2.122
- 2009: 2.139
Last year’s Super Two class took players like Kole Calhoun ($3.4MM), Didi Gregorius ($2.425MM), Anthony Rendon ($2.8MM) and, most notably, Nolan Arenado ($5MM), and jump-started their earning power in significant fashion. As can be seen in the above-linked projections, the largest beneficiaries of this year’s Super Two cutoff figure to be George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Danny Salazar, Matt Shoemaker, Sam Dyson and Marcus Stroman — each of whom is projected to take home north of $3.5MM in his first of what will now be four trips through arbitration eligibility.