Braves, Angels Swap Ian Anderson, Jose Suarez
The Braves are poised to acquire left-hander Jose Suarez from the Angels, according to a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, right-hander Ian Anderson is headed to Anaheim in exchange for Suarez.
Suarez, 27, signed with the Angels out of Venezuela and made his pro debut back in 2015. He’s spent his entire career in an Angels uniform to this point and first made it to the majors in 2019. The early days of his big league career weren’t exactly inspiring, as he carried a career 7.99 ERA in 83 1/3 innings through the end of the 2020 season with a 9.5% walk rate against a lackluster 18.6% strikeout rate.
Things turned around in a big way for the southpaw come 2021, however, and settled in to become a quality swing man for Anaheim. He pitched 98 1/3 innings that year in the majors split between 14 starts and nine relief appearances, and he was generally impressive by the results in those outings with a 3.75 ERA (119 ERA+) with a 4.12 FIP. That success carried over into the 2022 campaign, where Suarez was utilized as a more traditional back-of-the-rotation starter. He made 20 starts (and two relief appearances) for the Angels at the big league level that year, and pitched solidly enough with a roughly league average 3.96 ERA and a roughly matching 3.91 FIP. After posting successful seasons in back-to-back years, it seemed likely that the Angels would be relying on Suarez to serve as a back-end starter of swingman for years to come.
That’s not how things have transpired, however, as the lefty has been nothing short of disastrous over the past two seasons. In 86 innings of work since the start of the 2023 campaign, Suarez has struggled to a 6.91 ERA in 33 appearances, ten of which were starts. After striking out 21.5% of opponents and walking 7.9% from 2021 to ’22, the past two seasons have seen Suarez’s walk rate balloon to 11.6% while his strikeout rate has ticked down to 20.7%. He also began to give up increasingly dangerous contact, as his barrel rate ballooned from 7.4% in his successful years to 9.7% over the past two seasons. That’s led him to allow 17 homers in those 86 innings of work, more than he surrendered in either 2021 or ’22 despite pitching more innings in both of those seasons.
Suarez even found himself outrighted to the minors for much of last year, though he was added back to the club’s 40-man roster in September and remained there throughout the offseason. Now, however, he’ll head to Atlanta in hopes that a change of scenery can help get his career back on track. For the Angels, the move to part ways with Suarez comes on the heels of a mixed showing in camp where he struggled to a 6.55 ERA but struck out 25.5% of opponents while walking 9.8%. For Atlanta, he’ll offer another left-handed bullpen option who can be deployed in the middle innings, allowing Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer to be used more exclusively in high leverage situations.
Going the other way is Anderson, another reclamation project without options remaining. The right-hander, 27 in May, received NL Rookie of the Year votes in both the 2020 and 2021 seasons as he pitched to a combined 3.25 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate and 3.80 FIP in 30 starts during the regular season before adding an incredible 1.26 ERA in eight postseason starts to his resume over the course of those two years. That performance appeared likely to make Anderson a likely fixture of the Atlanta rotation going forward, but things took a turn for the worse in 2022 when he struggled to a 5.00 ERA (despite a 4.25 FIP) in 22 starts before he eventually went under the knife early in the 2023 campaign, undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Anderson missed the entire 2023 season while rehabbing and made 15 starts in the minor leagues last year as he got back up to speed, though his 3.44 ERA in 68 minor league innings did not lead to a return to the majors. The right-hander appeared likely to be part of the club’s rotation to start the season with Spencer Strider ticketed for the injured list entering camp, but despite a 2.65 ERA in 17 innings this spring Anderson’s camp raised concerns as he walked an eye-popping 18 opponents, or 24% of his total batters faced. With Anderson no longer in the fold, it seems likely the fifth starter job will instead go to AJ Smith-Shawver to open the season. Meanwhile, the Angels seem likely to utilize Anderson in a long relief role, though it’s at least possible he could get a look in the rotation if Reid Detmers begins the season at Triple-A.
Guardians, Rockies Swap Nolan Jones, Tyler Freeman
The Guardians and Rockies have reached a deal that sent outfielder Nolan Jones to Cleveland in exchange for infielder/outfielder Tyler Freeman, according to a report from Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The deal has subsequently been announced.
The deal represents a homecoming for Jones, who was a second-round pick by Cleveland in 2016 and made his MLB debut with the club in 2022 before being traded to Colorado in a deal that brought back Juan Brito in November of that year. Jones went on to finish fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year as he posted 3.8 fWAR/4.3 bWAR for the Rockies, slugging 20 homers and swiping 20 bases while splitting time between the outfield corners and first base. In all, Jones slashed .297/.389/.542 that season, which even in the inflated offensive environment Coors Field provides was good for an excellent 137 wRC+. Meanwhile, Brito has yet to make his big league debut for the Guardians but posted a strong .256/.365/.443 line in 144 games at Triple-A for the club last year.
As impressive as Jones’s first year in Colorado was, however, he suffered a significant sophomore slump in his second year with the club. Back issues limited him to just 79 games, and when he was healthy enough to take the field he was ineffective with a lackluster .227/.321/.320 slash line. While a downturn in production should have always been expected relative to his 2023 campaign given Jones’s unbelievable .400 BABIP that year, Jones’s lost power production was something of a shock. After barreling up a whopping 15.7% of his batted balls in 2023, that number cratered to just 5.9% last year despite his overall rate of hard hit batted balls increasing from 40.9% to 44.4%. That came primarily from a massive spike in groundball rate, as Jones hit 52.7% of his batted balls on the ground last year, ten points higher than the year prior. That left him to club just three homers last year and enter his age-27 campaign with plenty of questions about what his production would look like this year.
Those questions will now be answered back in Cleveland, where Jones now appears likely to have the opportunity to lock down the club’s regular right field job, which to this point appeared likely to be filled by Will Brennan. Jones offers more proven upside than Brennan, 27, who posted roughly league average offensive numbers in a platoon role with the Guardians last year. Brennan, unlike Jones, has options remaining and can be sent to Triple-A as depth for the coming season. Should he replace Brennan on the roster, Jones could share time in right field with right-handed slugger Jhonkensy Noel if the Guardians want to spell him against left-handed pitchers, though Johnathan Rodriguez is another option on the 40-man roster.
As for the Rockies, they’ll be parting with Jones to bring in Freeman, a versatile utility bat with the ability to play quality defense all over the diamond but minimal offensive potential. A career 83 wRC+ hitter who slashed .209/.305/.321 (84 wRC+) in 118 games with the Guardians last year, Freeman spent the majority of his time in center field but also got brief looks at shortstop, third base, and second base throughout the season. With Brenton Doyle locked in as the everyday center fielder in Colorado, it seems likely that Freeman will be tasked with a more regular return to the dirt in 2025. While a utility role off the bench could be in Freeman’s future given the presence of Ezequiel Tovar at shortstop and Ryan McMahon at third base, an injury to Thairo Estrada earlier this week opened up regular playing time at the keystone for at least the start of the season. Given that, it seems likely that Freeman will either serve as the Rockies’ regular second baseman or split time with veteran utility man Kyle Farmer at the position while Estrada recovers from the broken wrist that figures to sideline him for four to eight weeks.
Freeman was projected to be part of the Guardians’ bench mix come Opening Day, likely serving as a backup center field option behind Lane Thomas as well as a potential platoon partner for either Brennan or Kyle Manzardo. It’s possible a more regular outfielder like Rodriguez or Angel Martinez could be asked to take on that role, but one potentially intriguing candidate to join the club’s roster would be Brito himself. Brito is mostly an infielder with the vast majority of his time in the minors spent at second base, but he got a look in right field last year and could be an intriguing addition to the club’s bench mix as long as they believe in Lane Thomas as a legitimate everyday option in center field.
Guardians Extend Tanner Bibee
The Guardians have signed Tanner Bibee to a five-year contract extension that includes a club option for the 2030 season, according to MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins. The Athletic’s Zack Meisel (multiple links) reports that Bibee will receive at least $48MM in guaranteed money. As per Meisel, the contract breaks down as a $2MM signing bonus and a $3MM salary this season, $4MM in 2026, $7MM in 2027, $10MM in 2028, $21MM in 2029, and then Cleveland holds a $21MM club option for 2030 with a $1MM buyout.
Bibee just turned 26 earlier this month, so he gets a late birthday present in the form of a life-changing contract. Bibee has exactly two years of MLB service time, and his $48MM deal ranks as the third-most money ever given to a pitcher with between two years and two years and 171 days of service time. The 2025 season was Bibee’s final pre-arbitration year, so the extension covers all three of his arb-eligible years and at least one of his free agent years.
A fifth-round pick out of Cal State Fullerton in the 2021 draft, Bibee quickly became the latest quality arm to emerge from Cleveland’s pitching development factory. Bibee attracted top-100 prospect attention entering the 2023 season, and he immediately delivered on that potential by posting a 2.98 ERA in 142 innings with the Guardians. That performance earned him a second-place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting, and subsequently a full year of service time, as per the rules of the league’s Prospect Promotion Incentive plan.
There was no sophomore slump in the follow-up, as Bibee had a 3.47 ERA in 173 2/3 frames last season, with improved strikeout and walk rates from his rookie year. Bibee also got his first turn on the postseason stage, with a 3.45 ERA in 15 2/3 innings during the Guards’ run to the ALCS. Perhaps the only minor red flag was that Bibee (an average velocity pitcher) saw his fastball drop off rather drastically in effectiveness from 2023 to 2024, but that was balanced out by his cutter becoming an even more effective pitch.
Bibee becomes the latest in a decades-long line of quality players the Cleveland organization has signed to early-career extensions. Identifying and locking up talent has been perhaps the key plank of the team’s success over the years, given how the smaller-market Guardians rarely sign their players to secondary contracts or big free agent deals. Jose Ramirez is a rare example of a Guardians player who did ink a second extension to remain in the Cleve, and Ramirez and Bibee are now the only Guards players signed to guaranteed money beyond the 2026 season. The Guardians do have some control over Emmanuel Clase and Trevor Stephan in the form of club options covering their 2027 and 2028 seasons, as per the terms of their own extensions.
If Ramirez is the cornerstone of the position-player mix, Bibee now has a similar status as the key figure of the Guardians’ rotation for the remainder of the decade. Bibee already stepped up as a pillar of stability in what was an uncharacteristically so-so year for the Cleveland rotation as a whole, and he’ll look to again be the ace of a staff that includes Ben Lively, Logan Allen, Gavin Williams, and new arrival Luis Ortiz. Longtime ace Shane Bieber re-signed with the Guards in December and is expected to return around midseason once he fully recovers from Tommy John surgery.
Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images
Drew Thorpe To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
The White Sox announced that right-hander Drew Thorpe will undergo a Tommy John surgery. Dr. Keith Meister will perform the procedure, and Thorpe will miss the next 13-15 months in recovery.
The news caps off a brutal stretch of health struggles for the 24-year-old righty. Thorpe’s rookie season was cut short by a flexor strain in early August, and he underwent a surgery in early September to remove a bone spur from his throwing elbow. The recovery process didn’t go entirely smoothly, as Thorpe got a cortisone shot in January to help overcome some lingering discomfort from the procedure. Thorpe then had a slow ramp-up during Spring Training and didn’t make his first in-game appearance until a minor league appearance on Thursday, but then that outing was cut short when he left with elbow discomfort.
A second-round pick for the Yankees in the 2022 draft, Thorpe quickly emerged as a well-regarded prospect, and he has already been part of two major trades in his young career. New York included Thorpe as one of the five players sent to the Padres last offseason as part of the Juan Soto trade, and San Diego then flipped Thorpe (and three other players) to the White Sox a few months later in the deal that brought Dylan Cease to the Friars’ rotation.
After that tumultuous offseason, Thorpe looked to settle in as a major piece of Chicago’s rebuilding efforts, and he looked great over 11 starts at the Double-A level. The Sox then decided to call Thorpe straight up to the Show without a stop at Triple-A, and Thorpe perhaps understandably struggled in posting a 5.48 ERA over 44 1/3 innings against MLB hitters.
His next big league start now won’t come until at least midway through the 2026 season, as Thorpe and the White Sox will lose over a full year of important developmental time. Even if Thorpe had started the year at Triple-A, a good showing in the minors would’ve surely gotten him back to the majors in due course, with an eye towards fully establishing himself as a part of the future on the South Side. If there’s any silver lining for Thorpe, it is the fact that spending the year on the big league version of the 60-day injured list will bank him a full year of Major League service time.
The White Sox obviously weren’t expected to contend this season, but losing Thorpe is still a tough blow to the rotation. Manager Will Venable announced earlier this week that Rule 5 Draft pick Shane Smith would break camp with the team, and step into the rotation spot left open by Thorpe’s absence. Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, and veteran Martin Perez around out the rest of the projected starting five.
Thorpe is the fourth Sox pitcher to require a TJ surgery in the last two months, as the injury bug has taken a big bite out of the team’s ranks of young pitchers. Prelander Berroa, Ky Bush, and 40-man roster member Juan Carela will all be sidelined into the 2026 season after undergoing the procedure.
Diamondbacks, Justin Martínez Agree To Extension
TODAY: The Diamondbacks officially announced the deal, which per the club’s announcement also includes a conditional club option for the 2032 season. According to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, the conditional option is worth $3MM and triggers if Martinez has elbow surgery at any point in the deal or spends a certain number of days on the injured list.
March 21: Right-hander Justin Martínez and the Diamondbacks have reportedly agreed to a contract extension, pending a physical. The deal will pay him $18MM over five years, with a couple of club options as well. He’ll get a $2MM signing bonus and a $1.5MM salary this year. He’ll then make salaries of $2MM, $3MM, $4MM and $5.5MM in the remaining guaranteed years. The 2030 club option is valued at $7MM followed by a $9MM option for 2031. It can max out at $39MM via escalators and those options. The guaranteed portion of the deal covers his remaining pre-arbitration and arbitration seasons, while the options give the Diamondbacks two potential extra years of control.
Martínez, 23, has a limited major league track record but has impressed in that time. He had a rough debut in 2023, allowing 14 earned runs in a small sample of ten innings. But he firmly established himself last year. He tossed 72 2/3 innings over 64 appearances for the D’Backs, allowing just 2.48 earned runs per nine innings. His 11.7% walk rate was definitely on the high side but he struck out 29.5% of batters faced and got grounders on 58.9% of balls in play.
He accomplished all that with an impressive arsenal, turning his Statcast page into a sea of red. His four-seam fastball and sinker both averaged over 100 miles per hour with Martínez also mixing in a splitter and a slider. He earned seven holds and eight saves last year, cementing himself as a key leverage arm for the Snakes.
Given that eye-popping performance, it’s understandable that the Snakes would look to lock him up. It’s also easy to see why Martínez might prefer to lock up some life-changing money now. He had just converted from the outfield to the mound in 2018 prior to being signed as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic. He got a $50K bonus, relatively modest compared to some of the multi-million-dollar bonuses high-profile prospects get. He has struggled with control problems throughout his minor league career and also had Tommy John surgery in 2021.
While Martínez is surely confident in his obvious talents, his trajectory has been more rocky than many other young players. That perhaps made him less likely to bet on himself than a player who already had millions in the bank and a smooth ride to the majors.
The deal is roughly in line with previous pacts for pre-arbitration relievers, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Emmanuel Clase got $20MM over five years from the Guardians going into the 2022 season. Clase then had between one and two years of service time, as Martínez does now. In both cases, the player locked up guaranteed money for their pre-arb and arb years, while giving up two free agent seasons via options. The Clase deal is tops for a reliever in this service bracket with Martínez coming in just below him.
Clase is an apt comparison for Martínez and a good illustration of what the Diamondbacks are hoping for. Clase was clearly a talented pitcher but had some uncertainty after missing the 2020 season due to a PED suspension. He pitched his first full season in 2021 and posted a 1.29 ERA over 71 appearances. The Guardians banked on Clase repeating that kind of performance going forward, a bet that has paid off. Clase has emerged as one of the best closers in baseball with a 1.72 ERA over the first three years of that deal.
The bar doesn’t need to be that high for Martínez. Even by the end of the deal, his salary stays fairly modest. Decent setup pitchers like Paul Sewald, Yimi García and Tommy Kahnle signed deals with salaries in the $7-8MM range this winter. That means Martínez will be a bargain even if he’s producing in the realm of those guys. But clearly, the ceiling is quite high and the Diamondbacks are hoping Martínez is a key part of the bullpen for years to come.
What remains to be seen is how Martínez will be utilized in the short term. Manager Torey Lovullo said this week, in video relayed by Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports, that he would likely not name a strict closer. He has two key lefties in A.J. Puk and Joe Mantiply, as well as righties Martínez and Kevin Ginkel. Based on Lovullo’s comments, he seems likely to put his pitchers in optimal platoon settings, at least until a more clear hierarchy emerges.
Moises Fabian of Mega 97.9 in New York first reported the details in Spanish, relaying the $18MM guarantee over five years and the club options valued at $7MM and $9MM. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic later reported the same details in English. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reported the specific annual salaries.
Photos courtesy of Rob Schumacher, Imagn Images.
Orioles Sign Kyle Gibson
The Orioles announced on Friday that they’ve reunited with Kyle Gibson on a one-year deal. The Rowley Sports Management client is reportedly guaranteed $5.25MM and can earn another $1.525MM in performance bonuses — including $150K apiece at 14, 16, 18, 20, 22 and 24 starts. Baltimore placed Kyle Bradish, who underwent elbow surgery last June, on the 60-day injured list to open a roster spot.
Gibson was the top remaining free agent starting pitcher. The veteran righty has been a durable innings source at the back of various rotations. That included a 2023 season spent in Baltimore. Gibson made 33 starts and tossed 192 innings for the O’s two seasons ago. He posted a 4.73 earned run average while recording 157 strikeouts.
The Missouri product signed a $13MM free agent deal with the Cardinals during the 2023-24 offseason. He continued to work as a steady if unexciting back-end option. Gibson took 30 turns through the rotation and pitched to a 4.24 ERA over 169 2/3 innings. His 20.9% strikeout rate and 44.8% ground-ball percentage were near league average. St. Louis declined a $12MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout at year’s end.
Gibson has nine MLB seasons with at least 29 starts and more than 150 frames. He hasn’t spent any time on the injured list within the last three seasons. His 711 1/3 innings over the past four years ranks eighth among major league pitchers. Once he’s ready for major league work, he should slot into the fifth spot in Brandon Hyde’s rotation.
That won’t be from Opening Day. While Gibson has been throwing side sessions, that’s not a direct substitute for Spring Training. Hyde told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com that Gibson will need the equivalent of a spring ramp-up. It’s not clear if he’ll consent to an optional assignment to begin the season in the minors or start the year on the injured list, but he won’t be on the active roster on Thursday.
Gibson is the third older starting pitcher whom the Orioles have added on a one-year deal. They signed Charlie Morton to a $15MM contract and brought in NPB veteran Tomoyuki Sugano at $13MM. All three project more as back-end arms at this stage of their careers.
Grayson Rodriguez received a cortisone shot to treat elbow inflammation a couple weeks ago. He’ll begin the season on the injured list. Zach Eflin leads a starting five that also includes Morton, Sugano and Dean Kremer. Swingman Albert Suárez and young lefty Cade Povich are battling to round out the rotation. Suárez entered camp as the sixth starter, but Povich has outperformed him this spring. They’ll need one of those pitchers to hold a rotation spot until Gibson is ready for regular season work.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the $5.25MM base salary and the $1.525MM in incentives. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner reported the start breakdown. Image courtesy of Jerome Miron, USA Today Sports.
Thairo Estrada To Miss Four To Eight Weeks With Broken Wrist
Rockies infielder Thairo Estrada has a broken right wrist, suffered after being hit by a pitch yesterday, and will miss four to eight weeks. Manager Bud Black passed the information on to reporters, including Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Thomas Harding of MLB.com.
Estrada, 29, was set to be the club’s regular second baseman. They had Brendan Rodgers in that job for much of the past few seasons but non-tendered him after 2024. They signed Estrada to fill that opening, giving him a one-year, $3.25MM deal.
While he was coming off a down year, Estrada had a strong three-year run with the Giants prior to that. Over the 2021 to 2023 seasons, Estrada slashed .266/.320/.416 for a wRC+ of 105. He was mostly at the keystone in that time but also had enough versatility to play shortstop, third base and the outfield on occasion. He stole at least 21 bases in both 2022 and 2023.
But as mentioned, last year didn’t go well. He made multiple trips to the injured list due to left wrist sprains and hit .217/.247/.343 for a 64 wRC+. The Giants outrighted him off the roster at the end of August.
He and the Rockies were surely hoping he could bounce back in 2025 and he looked good in camp. He put up a line of .400/.421/.457 in 38 Cactus League plate appearances. Unfortunately, whatever momentum he was building for the regular season will now be put on hold for an extended stretch. Wrist problems are often tough to come back from, being obviously important for hitting. Estrada had left wrist problems last year and now has a broken right wrist, so it’s anyone’s guess what he’ll look like a few weeks from now.
With the schedule set to begin in a week, the Rockies will have to decide how to proceed. Harding reports that the first priority will be to try Kyle Farmer at second. Farmer also got a $3.25MM deal from the Rockies this winter, though he’s more of a glove-first player. He has hit .252/.313/.396 for a wRC+ of 93 over the past four years but with strong glovework at all four infield spots and the occasional appearance in left field.
Farmer was previously slated to serve in a multi-positional infield role. If he slides in as the regular second baseman, they will need to find another infielder for the bench. They only have four other regular infielders on the 40-man roster. Ryan McMahon is the regular third baseman, with Ezequiel Tovar at short. Michael Toglia will be in the first base job. Adael Amador is one of the club’s best prospects and has made a brief MLB debut, but he’s not yet 22 years old and hasn’t yet played at the Triple-A level. Greg Jones has some infield experience but played more in the outfield last year. Owen Miller isn’t on the roster but a non-roster depth option.
Nightengale suggests they could look to the open market, naming Nicky Lopez and Garrett Hampson as possibilities. Lopez was released by the Cubs today. Hampson has triggered an opt-out in his deal with the Diamondbacks, but they could add him to their roster this weekend. Players like Nick Ahmed and Jose Iglesias also have opt-outs in the coming days.
Photo courtesy Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images
Braves Select Drake Baldwin, Hector Neris, Enyel De Los Santos
The Braves announced Friday that they have selected the contracts of top catching prospect Drake Baldwin and veteran relievers Hector Neris and Enyel De Los Santos. All three have made the Opening Day club and are now on the 40-man roster. Atlanta doesn’t need to make any corresponding moves, as the recent returns of their two Rule 5 picks, this week’s trade of Angel Perdomo and yesterday’s outright of utilityman Luke Williams cleared several spots.
None of the three decisions registers as a surprise. Baldwin, 23, hit .313/.436/.375 in 39 spring plate appearances and was thrust to the top of the catching depth chart when Sean Murphy suffered fractured ribs early in camp. The 2022 third-rounder is widely regarded as one of the sport’s top catching prospects and one of the top 100 farmhands in the entire league. Baldwin will get his first opportunity and should see the lion’s share of playing time ahead of backup Chadwick Tromp while Murphy mends. Atlanta also recently signed James McCann to a minor league deal, but he’ll likely ramp up in Triple-A before he’s truly considered an option.
Neris was a late sign, agreeing to terms on March 3, and has only pitched two official innings so far. He’s gotten work on the back fields and in side sessions, however, and figures to get another inning or two between now and Opening Day. He hasn’t allowed a run in either of his two official appearances thus far.
The 35-year-old righty has a long track record in the majors, primarily with the division-rival Phillies and the Astros. He posted a 1.71 ERA and 31 holds as recently as 2023 in Houston, but he had an uneven showing as the Cubs’ closer in 2024 before being released. Neris saved 17 games with a 3.89 ERA for the Cubs but walked 13.3% of his opponents and also blew five save opportunities. He had something of the opposite play out in a late-season return to Houston; his 28.1% strikeout rate and 3.1% walk rate in 15 1/3 frames were brilliant … but his 4.70 ERA was lackluster. Overall, the veteran righty has a 3.27 ERA in 267 1/3 frames over the past four seasons.
De Los Santos, 25, has had a terrific camp, holding opponents to a pair of runs on just two hits and a walk with seven punchouts in 6 2/3 frames. He posted a 5.20 ERA in 64 innings spread across three teams last year, but he’s a six-year veteran who turned in a combined 3.18 earned run average in 119 innings for the Guardians from 2022-23. De Los Santos only has 4.015 years of major league service, so if he bounces back this year in Atlanta, he’ll be controllable through the 2026 season via arbitration.
Blue Jays’ Shapiro On Guerrero Jr.: “I Think We’re Going To Extend Him”
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s self-imposed deadline for an extension — the first full day of spring training — came and went more than a month ago, with no deal coming to fruition. Guerrero has left the door slightly cracked, indicating that while he doesn’t plan to negotiate any further, he’d be amenable to hearing the Jays out if they presented a new offer. That mindset is all the more notable now, given that Jays CEO Mark Shapiro flatly stated this morning that he expects to eventually agree to an extension with the team’s star first baseman (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). Said Shapiro:
“…I guess my overarching feeling is one of optimism. I think we’re going to sign him. I think we’re going to extend him. The reason I feel that way is because we have such a clear alignment on the desired outcome. Vlad wants to play his whole career as a Toronto Blue Jay. We want him to end his career in a Blue Jays uniform to be a true legacy player for the Toronto Blue Jays. … Could be before free agency, could be during free agency, but I’m optimistic we will sign him.”
Guerrero himself reacted to Shapiro’s comments, per Hazel Mae and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet: “I’ve always felt good about the whole thing. I’m good with that. Just going to keep working very hard and be optimistic, too. Not going to shut the door on them… I’ll be open. But I’m going to leave that to my agents to work with that. If there’s something there, they’re going to continue to work with that. I’m just going to be on the field, focusing on my teammates, on my team, on my game.”
Details surrounding both Guerrero’s asking price and the Blue Jays’ most recent offer have trickled out in the weeks since his deadline passed. Guerrero himself made clear he wasn’t seeking anything close to Juan Soto‘s $765MM guarantee with the Mets; he sought under $600MM in guaranteed money over a 14- or 15-year deal. Subsequent reporting from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post, and Davidi shed further light on negotiations. Guerrero reportedly sought a net-present value of $500MM, and while the Jays are said to have offered a figure close to $500MM, deferred money pushed the present-day value down closer to $450MM.
Though that paints a broad picture of where things stand, Shapiro cautioned today (without citing specifically reported numbers) that the gap isn’t quite as straightforward as the ostensible $50MM separating the reported offer and asking price. “That’s an oversimplification based upon only part of the information,” Shapiro said (via MLB.com’s Keegan Mattheson).
Shapiro’s candor and optimistic tone on eventually hammering out a long-term deal come not long after Hector Gomez of the Dominican Republic’s Z101 Sports reported that the Jays are preparing a new offer for Guerrero. While it’s still not clear whether a new offer will be made prior to Opening Day, Shapiro’s comments do lend some credence to the idea that a new proposal could be forthcoming before long.
Despite the fact that he just turned 26 this past Sunday, Guerrero is entering his final season of club control. He’ll earn $28.5MM in 2025 after avoiding arbitration this winter. He’ll be a year older than Soto was when Soto hit the market, but Guerrero is nevertheless poised to reach free agency with a rare blend of youth and premium offensive track record.
Although the first two seasons of Guerrero’s career — his age-20 and age-21 efforts — were “only” a bit above average, he broke out with an MVP-caliber performance in 2021. His 2022-23 production was very strong but not quite up to that 2021 standard. He bounced back to elite levels in 2024. Overall, since that 2021 breakout, Guerrero has turned in a monstrous .293/.370/.517 batting line with 136 home runs in 2783 plate appearances — about 45% better than league average, by measure of wRC+.
Guerrero delivered nearly unrivaled batted-ball and bat speed grades last year while turning in a career-low 13.8% strikeout rate against a 10.3% walk rate that sits as the second-highest mark of his big league tenure. Per Statcast, he ranked in at least the 91st percentile of MLB hitters in barrel rate (91st percentile), bat speed (95th), hard-hit rate (97th), average exit velocity (98th), expected slugging percentage (98th) and expected wOBA (98th). No hitter in MLB had a higher maximum exit velocity or expected batting average.
Guerrero has also been extremely durable, trailing only Marcus Semien in total plate appearances since 2021. In that same span, he’s tied with Yordan Alvarez for the sixth-most homers in MLB and also sits sixth with 405 runs driven in. Guerrero ranks 10th in batting average, 11th in on-base percentage and 13th in slugging percentage over the past four years. Defense and baserunning are obvious strikes against him, but Guerrero has been one of MLB’s ten best hitters in the aggregate since Opening Day 2021 — including two seasons where he’s been flat-out elite.
Based on Guerrero’s premium bat-to-ball skills, bat speed and batted-ball metrics, there’s little reason to expect him to markedly decline in the near future. As with any mega-deal, the latter half of the contract is likely to be painful, but that’s generally accepted as the cost of doing business when signing star-caliber players of this nature in the heart of their prime.
Braves Sign Alex Verdugo
The Braves announced Thursday that they’ve signed veteran outfielder Alex Verdugo to a one-year, $1.5MM contract. With Opening Day just a week away, he consented to be optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett to ramp up. (Players gain the right to refuse an optional assignment once they accrue five years of MLB service.) Verdugo is represented by MVP Sports Group.
Just days ago, The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty reported that Verdugo had yet to receive a formal big league offer in free agency. That turned quickly. He’ll head straight to minor league camp and spend a bit of time in Gwinnett while he makes up for missing most of spring training, but he’ll be an option for Atlanta at some point in April.
The 28-year-old Verdugo (29 in May) is coming off the worst season of his big league career but was a steady regular with the Dodgers and Red Sox from 2019-23. Over that five-year period, he slashed a combined .283/.338/.432 with quality corner outfield defense. He may not have developed into the star some had hoped when the former second-round pick was widely regarded as a top-100 prospect, but Verdugo was a clear contributor on generally competitive clubs.
The 2024 season started out with more of the same. Traded to the Yankees last offseason, Verdugo came out of the gate hot, batting .275/.362/.450 in his first 141 plate appearances. He fell into a deep slump from that point forth and never recovered, however. From mid-May through season’s end, Verdugo’s .221/.270/.330 line was one of the least-productive in all of baseball among qualified hitters.
Last year’s prolonged struggles surely hindered Verdugo’s market. He was connected to teams like the Pirates, Angels and Astros throughout the winter, but all of those clubs either went another direction in the outfield or didn’t end up making an outfield addition at all. The Pirates instead decided it better to spread out their limited remaining resources across multiple players; they signed Tommy Pham ($4.05MM) and Andrew Heaney ($5.25MM) to one-year deals not long after being linked to Verdugo.
Verdugo heads to Atlanta on a lighter deal than most would’ve predicted back at the onset of free agency, providing some outfield depth at a time when Ronald Acuña Jr. is still rehabbing last year’s ACL tear while Jarred Kelenic continues to struggle. Offseason signee Jurickson Profar has also been banged up in camp, as it’s now been nearly two weeks since he was in an official game. Profar injured his wrist on a diving attempt in left field; he was diagnosed with a bone bruise, not a fracture, and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. Bone bruises are tricky injuries, the effects of which can sometimes linger longer than expected.
If the Braves can get everyone healthy, they’ll have some decisions to make. At full strength, the outfield would clearly be Profar in left, Michael Harris II in center and Acuña in right. Kelenic would fill a fourth outfield role in that setup, while Bryan De La Cruz — also on the 40-man roster — would likely reside in Triple-A as a depth piece.
Verdugo’s addition to the mix most directly threatens Kelenic’s role. Both are left-handed hitters who can handle center field but are probably better suited for corner work. (Verdugo certainly is.) Kelenic is a former top-10 pick and once ranked as one of the game’s 10 best prospects, but he’s never hit his stride in the majors after decimating minor league pitching.
The Braves acquired Kelenic from the Mariners in the 2023-24 offseason via a series of convoluted salary-dump trades that wound up seeing Atlanta take on around $25MM in dead money (plus nearly $7MM in luxury taxes) to purchase the former top prospect. They said from the jump that he’d receive regular playing time and would not be platooned, but by the end of camp he’d struggled enough against lefties that the Braves re-signed Adam Duvall to platoon with him. Kelenic’s first season with Atlanta resulted in a disappointing .231/.286/.393 slash. He’s followed that up with a .200/.282/.457 slash in 39 spring plate appearances.
Kelenic has a minor league option remaining. If he struggles, it’s feasible that Atlanta will try to get him on track in Gwinnett and switch him out for Verdugo, using the veteran Verdugo in that aforementioned fourth outfield role. It’s a low-cost depth gamble made possible by Verdugo’s lack of market to this point. There’s little harm in opportunistically adding to the depth at this price point; the Braves are now up to about $231MM of luxury obligations, per RosterResource, leaving them $10MM shy of the tax threshold.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Verdugo and the Braves had agreed to a deal worth $1.5MM. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reported that it was a one-year, major league contract.