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Cardinals To Part Ways With Paul Goldschmidt, Could Reduce Payroll This Winter

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The Cardinals do not plan on bringing veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt back in 2025, according to a report from The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Goldschmidt is scheduled to hit free agency this offseason, and while the club had previously been rumored to have interest in bringing him back for 2025, it now appears the club will part ways with the future Hall of Famer. For his part, Goldschmidt has made clear that he plans to continue his career into 2025.

Goldschmidt isn’t the only player expected to depart this offseason. According to Woo, it’s unlikely that any of the club’s pending free agents will return to the club next year as the club pivots towards a focus on bolstering its player development apparatus. Woo specifically noted that relievers Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton are expected to land elsewhere this winter, though she emphasized it was not yet clear whether veteran starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are included in the expected exodus. St. Louis holds identical $12MM club options on the duo’s services for next year, each with a $1MM buyout.

Woo also notes that a reduction to the major league payroll could be on the horizon as the club reinvests in player development, echoing a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale early today that indicated the Cardinals could shop veteran right-hander Sonny Gray as they look to cut payroll. Woo did not explicitly suggest that Gray will be shopped, but did list the right-hander among a handful of veteran Cardinals players whose futures with the club could be put “into question” by a drop in payroll this winter alongside third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and closer Ryan Helsley. MLBTR discussed Gray’s potential trade candidacy earlier today in conjunction with Nightengale’s report, which noted the Reds as a potential suitor for the veteran’s services.

If the Cardinals are going to look at shopping Gray this winter amid an effort to reduce payroll, it’s only natural that the club could entertain offers on a number of other high-priced veterans as well. Contreras, in particular, could be a sensible candidate for the club to move this winter. The 32-year-old backstop has been nothing short of phenomenal with the bat since he joined the Cardinals prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing an impressive .263/.367/.468 (133 wRC+) in 209 games with St. Louis as he’s sustained the offense breakout he enjoyed during his final season with the Cubs in 2022.

With that being said, not everything has gone well for Contreras since he joined the club. The veteran was temporarily moved off of catcher after just six weeks in the organization, only to be reinstated as the Cubs regular catcher shortly thereafter. Per Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Contreras was worth -3 runs behind the plate last year that was his worst figure since 2019. Those defensive struggles behind the plate led the club’s coaches to suggest Contreras move closer to the plate while catching. The strategy seems to have worked to improve his defense at the position as his FRV improved to +0 this year, but it came at a substantial cost as the veteran suffered an arm fracture that required surgery earlier this year after being struck by a swing from Mets DH J.D. Martinez.

Given the Cardinals’ concerns regarding Contreras’s defense, the $54.5MM due to him over the next three seasons, and the presence of up-and-coming youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages ready to take on larger roles in the majors, it would hardly be a surprise if the Cardinals decided to listen to offers on the veteran catcher this offseason. Given his success at the plate over the past three years, it seems reasonable to expect that teams would have interest in the veteran’s services even if they joined in St. Louis’s suspicions regarding his defense behind the plate, as he could move to a first base or DH role fairly seamlessly if an acquiring club wanted to make such a switch. Of course, it’s also possible that there’s a club that either believes they can improve Contreras’s defense or is willing to sacrifice defensive value behind the plate in order to fit a middle-of-the-order bat into its lineup and would be happy to employ Contreras as a catcher as well.

Arenado, on the other hand, could be trickier for the club to move in the event they shop him. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer opted in for the final five years and $144MM of his contract with the club prior to the 2023 season in a move that, at the time, was somewhat surprising. With that being said, the third baseman hasn’t looked like the MVP candidate he was earlier in his career over the two seasons since then. In 296 games with St. Louis over the past two seasons, Arenado has hit just .269/.320/.426. That’s still good for an above-average 104 wRC+ and, in conjunction with his strong but no longer elite defense at third base, has been good for 5.8 fWAR total over the past two years.

While that level of production still casts Arenado as a clearly valuable player even as he enters his mid 30s, it’s easy to imagine rival clubs balking at the idea of giving up significant prospect capital while also taking on the remaining three years and $74MM left on Arenado’s deal with the club, though it’s worth noting that the Rockies are paying down $5MM of that figure per year to reduce the total burden to just $59MM over three seasons.

Another factor that can’t be ignored is that Arenado, Contreras, and Gray all have full no-trade clauses at present, meaning any of them could block trades to any teams that they wish. That’s not necessarily always an obstacle to a trade, as players with no-trade protection will often waive those rights in the event that their teams wants to move on, but it does offer each veteran significant leverage in the event that the Cardinals look to move on from any of them. That leverage could be used to ensure they get traded to a preferred organization or in order to get additional financial incentives in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause, as Arenado did when he agreed to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt from the Rockies to the Cardinals in exchange for an additional year and $15MM added to the end of his contract.

None of those considerations apply to Helsley, who is set to go through arbitration for the third and final time this winter. He’s sure to garner a substantial raise over his $3.8MM salary from the 2024 season after a phenomenal year that’s seen the 30-year-old pitch to a 2.04 ERA (207 ERA+) with an eye-popping 38.2% strikeout rate and an MLB-best 49 saves in 66 1/3 innings of work this year. It’s the third consecutive dominant season for the righty, as he’s now posted a combined 1.83 ERA (227 ERA+) with a 2.35 FIP and 225 strikeouts and 82 saves in 167 2/3 innings of work since he broke out back in 2021.

Helsley should still come at a reasonable financial cost even after accounting for the pay bump he figures to receive this winter, and with a commitment of just one year it’s likely he could be among the most sought-after relief arms on the market this winter if the Cardinals were to make him available. With that being said, Helsley’s utter dominance this season and relatively affordable salary could mean that the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto their closer if they hope to remain competitive in 2025, particularly since he would likely be almost as valuable at the trade deadline next summer so long as he remains healthy and effective.

Circling back to Goldschmidt, the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer is now slated to become a free agent for the first time in his career come November. He’ll do some coming off the worst season of his career, having hit just .245/.301/.412 with a wRC+ of 99 in 153 games this year while setting a career high strikeout rate and a career low walk rate. That brutal platform campaign in conjunction with his age will surely keep Goldschmidt from garnering anything close to what top-of-the-class first basemen like Pete Alonso or even Christian Walker will in free agency this winter, but there’s still enough reason for optimism in his profile to imagine a club with a hole at first base giving the veteran an everyday job.

After all, he’s just two seasons removed from winning the NL MVP award with a dominant offensive performance, and it’s also worth noting that he improved as the season went on. From May 12 onward, Goldschmidt hit a respectable .262/.309/.462 with a 113 wRC+ in 491 trips to the plate. While that’s a far cry from the perennial All-Star he once was, even that level of production would be good for 13th among qualified first basemen this year, ahead of even well-regarded regulars like Ryan Mountcastle and Vinnie Pasquantino.

Skip Schumaker Will Not Return As Marlins’ Manager

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TODAY: The Marlins officially announced Schumaker’s departure.

SEPT. 28: Skip Schumaker will not return as Miami’s manager in 2025, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. His tenure with the Fish concludes after two seasons.

The Marlins announced during Friday night’s win over the Blue Jays that Schumaker would return home to attend to a family health matter. Bench coach Luis Urueta will be the interim manager for the final two games of the season, tweets Isaac Azout of Fish on First. Passan writes that Schumaker informed Miami players that he would not be back next season after tonight’s game.

That couldn’t have come as much of a surprise to anyone on the roster. Schumaker has seemingly been on his way out of South Florida for months. Former general manager Kim Ng hired Schumaker — who’d been the bench coach in St. Louis — to replace Don Mattingly going into the 2023 season. He’d initially signed a two-year deal with a club option for 2025. Once the Marlins and Ng parted ways last offseason, Schumaker reportedly expressed frustration with the organization’s direction. The Marlins agreed to void the ’25 option as a result, giving the 44-year-old the chance to pursue other opportunities after this season.

The front office overhaul came within weeks of Miami surprisingly punching their ticket to the postseason. The Fish overcame a negative run differential to win 84 games and snag a Wild Card spot in 2023. While they were swept by Philadelphia in the first round, the unexpected postseason berth earned Schumaker the NL’s Manager of the Year award in his debut season. It was the team’s first playoff appearance in a 162-game schedule since their 2003 World Series title.

Owner Bruce Sherman was nevertheless dissatisfied with the organization’s recent misses in the draft and some ill-fated free agent moves (e.g. Avisaíl García, Jean Segura). Sherman tabbed former Rays GM Peter Bendix as president of baseball operations — a move that would’ve relegated Ng to second in the front office hierarchy. After Sherman informed Ng of his plans to hire a baseball ops president, she declined her end of a mutual option and moved on.

Bendix never seemed confident that the Marlins could replicate last year’s success. The Fish had a quiet winter — their only MLB free agent signing was a $5MM rebound flier on Tim Anderson — and seemed ticketed for another rebuild. A disastrous 0-9 start sealed their fate within the first two weeks. Miami traded Luis Arraez in early May and followed up with a major deadline sell-off involving most of their relievers, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trevor Rogers, Josh Bell and Bryan De La Cruz. Were it not for a devastating series of rotation injuries, they’d likely have torn things down further. Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett would have been clear trade candidates if healthy.

Bendix’s skepticism about the short-term outlook has been borne out in this year’s results. The Fish lost 100 games for the fourth time in franchise history. They’ll either finish with the second- or third-worst record in MLB. (They’re one game behind the Rockies at the bottom of the National League.) At the same time, it’s entirely unsurprising that Schumaker preferred not to embark on a multi-year rebuild orchestrated by a new front office just months after leading the team to the playoffs.

There should be plenty of interest in Schumaker’s services. His aggregate 144-178 record wasn’t great, but that’s far more a testament to this year’s roster than an indictment of his managerial ability. His work in 2023 earned ample praise. The White Sox and Reds have managerial vacancies after firing Pedro Grifol and David Bell, respectively. Schumaker has been loosely linked to both jobs before his contract with the Marlins has expired.

Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote a few weeks ago that he was among the Sox’s top targets. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported on Friday that Schumaker and former Cubs’ skipper David Ross are among the preliminary options under consideration for the Reds’ front office. It’s possible other jobs will open once the regular season concludes.

In Miami, Bendix begins his first managerial search as a baseball operations leader. The front office has presumably been preparing for a while, as they were no doubt aware of the probability that Schumaker would depart. It’s the next opportunity for Bendix and his group to put their stamp on the franchise as they go into another rebuilding year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins To Retain Derek Falvey, Rocco Baldelli For 2025

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Both chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli will be returning to the Twins next season, as team executive chairman Joe Pohlad and Falvey himself told reporters (including the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes).  Today’s official announcements confirm yesterday’s report from The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman that both Falvey and Baldelli would be back for their respective ninth and seventh seasons with the organization.

Baldelli’s current contract runs through at least the 2025 season, while Falvey’s contractual status isn’t publicly known.  Falvey’s previous deal was known to be up at the end of the 2024 campaign, yet the Twins have tended to be somewhat secretive when it comes to contracts for team personnel.  It seems entirely possible that Falvey was inked to an extension at some point over the course of his previous couple of years, or his contract might indeed currently be up, but an extension is expected to be finalized shortly.

Of course, contracts might not have mattered much if ownership felt compelled to make changes following the Twins’ late-season collapse.  Minnesota had a 70-53 record on August 17 and looked to be safe bets to make the postseason, either as AL Central champs for the second consecutive season or at least as a wild card.  Instead, the Twins have gone 12-26 over their last 38 games, and two division rivals (the Tigers and Royals) zoomed past them en route to the playoffs.

As “embarrassing” as Pohlad felt this collapse was, he still has faith in Falvey to lead the front office.  “I don’t judge employees off of six crummy weeks.  He’s got eight years of a résumé and I talk with Derek daily so I know what he’s doing, ” Pohlad said.  “He’s got player development resume, he’s got a major league resume and yeah, he’s busting his [butt]. He’s the right guy.”

Falvey made a similar defense of Baldelli, saying “we’ve been gutted during this process trying to figure out how we fix it. That’s led to sleepless nights and challenging conversations and one-on-one conversations between he and I that will stay one-on-one, but have been at times really digging deep and trying to figure out how to fix it.  I believe in his process, I believe in him, I believe in the partnership I have with him.  That is how I feel and ultimately, that’s the way we’re going to go forward.”

The 2024 season is the latest twist in the overall successful, yet inconsistent tenures of both the CBO and the manager.  The duo have combined for three AL Central titles and four winning records in Baldelli’s time as manager, plus Minnesota also won 85 games and earned a wild card in 2017, Falvey’s first season with the organization.  Still, the Twins followed up that 2017 campaign with a losing season in 2018 that got previous manager Paul Molitor replaced in favor of Baldelli, and the Twins stumbled to sub-.500 records in both 2021 and 2022 on the heels of consecutive division crowns in 2019-20.

A return to the playoffs last year and (most importantly) the Twins’ first postseason series win since 2002 seemed to restore order to the franchise, but that playoff success was then undermined by a controversial offseason.  Ownership’s decision to cut payroll by roughly $30MM left Falvey and GM Thad Levine somewhat hamstrung in their roster maneuvering last winter, leaving it easy to second-guess plenty of decisions or non-decisions that could’ve made the difference between a playoff berth or the Twins’ current situation.

On the other hand, playing even .500 ball since August 17 would’ve sent Minnesota cruising into the postseason, and the payroll decisions wouldn’t loom nearly as large.  According to The Athletic’s Dan Hayes (X link), the Twins aren’t planning any more payroll reductions this winter, so it would appear as if the front office will be working with at least the roughly $129MM that the club is currently spending on players.

While Falvey and Baldelli appear safe, neither Pohlad or Falvey mentioned Levine’s status heading into 2025.  Levine has been serving as Falvey’s chief lieutenant since the pair were hired in November 2016, and like Falvey, his contract is also thought to be up once the 2024 season is over.  Again, Levine might well have quietly signed an extension at some point, or the Twins might be looking to bring a new voice into the front office if they feel some kind of change is necessary.

Ha-Seong Kim To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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Padres manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) this evening that shortstop Ha-Seong Kim’s season is over. Kim later told reporters (including Cassavell) that he’s undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. The shortstop has been on the IL for over a month due to inflammation in his shoulder, and Shildt revealed yesterday that Kim might ultimately need to go under the knife to repair the labrum in his shoulder.

It’s a huge blow for a Padres club that has leaned heavily on the 28-year-old since he enjoyed a breakout season back in 2022. That year, Kim stepped in to replace troubled star Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop amid a lost season caused by off-the-field injuries and a PED suspension. He excelled in the role, hitting an above-average .251/.325/.383 (105 wRC+) in 150 games while playing strong defense at shortstop. Kim was pushed back to second base by the addition of Xander Bogaerts last year but took yet another step forward with the bat while playing slick defense across not only the keystone but also shortstop and third base as needed.

Last year, Kim slashed .260/.351/.398 with a wRC+ of 110 while swiping 38 bags in 47 attempts. That overall package was enough to earn Kim his first career Gold Glove award and even some downballot MVP votes. Coming off that strong season and a lackluster season defensively from Bogaerts, the Padres elected to switch the two entering this year to return Kim to shortstop. That seemingly set him up for what could be his third straight career year, but things didn’t play out quite that way as the infielder took a slight step back at the plate. In 121 games for the Padres this year, Kim posted a wRC+ of 101 while stealing 22 bases in 27 attempts. That down season has been further exacerbated by his shoulder woes, which have kept him from participating in the stretch run and now will remove him from San Diego’s postseason plans entirely.

Looking ahead for the Padres, it seems likely that the club will now stick with Bogaerts at shortstop headed into the postseason, as they’ve done since moving him back to the position earlier this month in response to Kim’s injury. It’s been a down season for Bogaerts overall as he’s been limited to just 110 games so far by injuries while posting a 94 wRC+ that’s his worst since 2014, but he’s managed to turn things around since returning from the injured list back in July with a solid .295/.336/.430 slash line across 259 plate appearances that’s good for a 116 wRC+. That’s opened second base up for regular starts from Jake Cronenworth, leaving first base available for a timeshare between Donovan Solano and Luis Arraez, the latter of whom also factors into the club’s DH mix alongside David Peralta on days he isn’t playing first base.

As for Kim himself, the shortstop will now head into free agency facing a new layer of uncertainty. While he’s still all but certain to decline his $8MM mutual option for next season in favor of a $2MM buyout, it’s possible that teams could be more hesitant to offer the versatile infielder a sizable multi-year deal this winter due to concerns about how his shoulder issues could impact him on both sides of the ball going forward. Kim appeared likely to be a consensus top infield option in free agency this winter behind Alex Bregman and Willy Adames, making it easy to imagine him landing a significant contract. Between his down 2024 season at the plate and now his impending surgery, however, Kim’s future seems a bit murkier than it did even a few days ago.

Ha-Seong Kim Not Close To Return, May Require Offseason Labrum Surgery

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The Padres have had to lock down a Wild Card spot without Ha-Seong Kim. The shortstop jammed his right shoulder diving into first base on a pickoff attempt on August 18. The Padres placed him on the injured list a couple days later with a diagnosis of shoulder inflammation.

San Diego initially expressed optimism it would be a short-term absence. Kim has instead been out for more than five weeks and is not on the verge of a return. Manager Mike Shildt provided a disappointing update on the Gwynn & Chris show on 97.3 The Fan in San Diego tonight (X link).

“He just hasn’t been able to get over that hump with his throwing,” Shildt said. “The hitting’s not a problem, that part’s good, but he hasn’t been able to consistently throw with anything behind it. … We’re still weighing what’s taking place, but right now, he’s not in a spot where we can count on him in the very near future.” In response to a follow-up question as to whether there’s a date at which the window for Kim to return this season officially closes, Shildt replied “there is, and we may be getting there.”

Making matters worse, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (on X) that Kim could require an offseason labrum repair. That’d be a brutal blow as he returns to free agency. The guaranteed portion of his four-year deal is coming to a close. As is the case with most players signing out of Korea or Japan, he’s eligible for free agency despite having less than six years of MLB service. Kim will decline his end of an $8MM mutual option for next season. He’ll collect a $2MM buyout and return to the market.

If healthy, he has a case for a strong four-year deal. Kim’s ability to play plus defense throughout the infield has been incredibly valuable. He stole 38 bases a season ago and has gone 22-27 on the basepaths this season. Kim doesn’t have overwhelming power, but he has gotten into double-digit home run territory in three straight years. He draws plenty of walks and rarely strikes out.

Kim hit .233/.330/.370 over 470 plate appearances during the regular season. He carries a .250/.336/.385 slash since the start of 2022. As of a couple months ago, Kim’s durability had ironically been one of his biggest selling points. This is the first time in his four MLB campaigns that he has landed on the injured list.

It’ll take at least a few more weeks to learn the impact of the injury on Kim’s free agent stock. The more immediate focus for the Padres is on their playoff infield. San Diego has kicked Xander Bogaerts back to the left side of the dirt. Jake Cronenworth has moved over to second base. That opens first base playing time for Donovan Solano and some defensive reps for primary DH Luis Arraez, with David Peralta drawing into the lineup at designated hitter while Arraez is in the field. The Padres called up Nick Ahmed last weekend to work as a defensive specialist behind Bogaerts.

Chaim Bloom To Take On Larger Role In Cardinals’ Front Office

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The Cardinals are set to hold a press conference early next week, and it’s already been reported that there will be some notable organizational changes announced at that time. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat suggested as much earlier this week, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported a couple weeks back that former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, hired as an adviser last winter, could see his role expand. That’ll indeed be the case, and Katie Woo of The Athletic now further details that Bloom will be tasked with hiring a new director of player development and overhauling that department.

It’s not fully clear what title Bloom will hold, but Woo spoke with multiple Cardinals staffers about the manner in which their player development system — once the gold standard in the sport — has become antiquated and been neglected over time. Cardinals employees who spoke to Woo for a simultaneously fascinating and damning overview of the organization suggest the club is lacking in coordinators, minor league coaches, technology and other resources, leaving players unprepared to make the jump to the majors.

That’s created a vicious cycle, forcing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak to spend more in free agency to offset the lack of homegrown contributors. In doing so, he’s increasingly had to allocate his baseball operations budget to the big league roster at the expense of player development. It’s become a self-fulfilling prophecy in many ways. Readers (especially Cardinals fans) are encouraged to check out Woo’s piece in full for an exhaustive breakdown of how the Cardinals’ once unparalleled development practices have faltered and failed to position touted prospects like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, Dylan Carlson and others for big league success.

From an even bigger-picture standpoint, the matter of Mozeliak’s future with the club has also been thrust into the spotlight. He’s signed through 2025 and has suggested previously that he’s likely to step down after that contract. MLB.com’s John Denton reports that it’s at least possible Mozeliak steps aside or transitions to a different role sooner than the end of his contract, however. Changes on the coaching front are expected too, as Jones reported earlier this week. Woo writes that manager Oli Marmol is expected to remain in place but points out that hitting coaches Turner Ward and Brandon Allen, game-planning coach Packy Elkins, first base coach Stubby Clapp and assistant pitching coach Julio Rangel are all signed only through the current season.

The full scope of the looming changes likely won’t be ascertainable until the Cardinals host their press conference Monday. What’s increasingly clear is that ownership and the majority of the baseball operations and player development staff recognize that changes are needed. Whether that results in a rebuilding effort of any magnitude isn’t yet clear. Woo reports that the Cardinals do not intend to go into a tanking-style rebuild but also plan to shift more focus on building up the player development staff and strengthening the minor league system.

Marmol, for his part, isn’t speaking like a manager who expects a pronounced step back. The recent focus on getting to 82 wins to avoid the first back-to-back losing seasons the Cardinals have endured in six decades hasn’t sat well with him, he tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “It’s not a goal of mine when I go into a season to only finish above .500, if I’m being quite honest,” says Marmol. “I understand not wanting to have back-to-back losing seasons. We have aspirations for a lot more than that, and we have to build toward it, bottom line.”

Goold joins the rest of the Cards beat in reporting that large-scale changes are indeed expected Monday at a press conference where the team’s “next direction” will be among the topics. The Cardinals face several pivotal decisions, many of them on aging veterans. They hold $12MM club options over starters Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn — both coming with a $1MM buyout. Paul Goldschmidt is a free agent, though there’s been talk of a potential reunion. Veteran reliever Andrew Kittredge is also a free agent, and the Cards have some interest in re-signing him. The 2025 season is closer Ryan Helsley’s final year of club control. Prospects like Walker and Gorman aren’t necessarily at a crossroads but have also failed to cement themselves in the team’s plans. Both were optioned to the minors this season, though both have at least one option year remaining beyond the current season (two, in Gorman’s case).

Monday’s press conference should shed light on how some of those vital organizational decisions will play out. The broad takeaway, for now, is that simply maintaining the status quo no longer feels tenable.

Grayson Rodriguez Will Not Return In 2024

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The Orioles are shutting down Grayson Rodriguez for the season, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (X link via Jake Rill of MLB.com). While Rodriguez didn’t have any kind of setback, the team doesn’t feel there’s sufficient time for him to return from the injured list.

Losing the right-hander is a devastating blow for the Orioles rotation with the postseason set to begin next week. It would require a miracle for the Orioles to run down the Yankees for the AL East crown (and accompanying bye through the Wild Card Series) at this point, and failing that the club will have to determine whether to turn to right-hander Dean Kremer or journeyman Albert Suarez to round out the club’s rotation for the series behind Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin, while likely using both in the ALDS and beyond should they manage to make a deeper run.

Both hurlers have been solid mid-to-back of the rotation starters for the Orioles this year but aren’t the sort of reliable arms teams prefer to lean on in a playoff series. Kremer has made 24 starts for Baltimore this year to slightly below average results, with a 4.10 ERA (92 ERA+) and 4.32 FIP in 129 2/3 innings of work, while Suarez sports a 3.74 ERA (100 ERA+) and 4.12 FIP in 127 2/3 innings of work split between the bullpen and rotation. Of the pair, Kremer is perhaps the more reliable choice given his stronger results of late (he’s pitched to a 3.95 ERA and 3.55 FIP since the start of August) that compare favorably to Suarez’s ugly 7.23 ERA in four September starts that have seen him surrender a whopping seven homers.

Baltimore’s front office attempted to shore up the rotation in response to injuries suffered by the pitching staff throughout the year at the trade deadline, and while the addition of Eflin to the mix has proved invaluable down the stretch the same cannot be said for their decision to add Trevor Rogers to their rotation mix. The Orioles surrendered well-regarded youngsters Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers in exchange for Rogers’s services back in July, but the lefty made four disastrous starts for the club (7.11 ERA, 5.01 FIP) before being optioned to the minors where he continued to struggle badly down the stretch.

Regardless of how Kremer, Suarez, and other rotation options like Rogers and Cade Povich (5.59 ERA in 15 starts) are deployed by Hyde during the postseason, none of those options seem likely to be as reliable as Rodriguez. In 116 2/3 innings of work before being sidelined by a lat injury back in August, Rodriguez pitched to a 3.86 ERA with a stronger 3.66 FIP across 20 starts while striking out a solid 26.5% of opponents in his second season as a member of the Orioles rotation this year. That strikeout rate is good for 23rd in the majors among starters with at least 100 innings of work this year, in line with likely playoff starters for other clubs such as Tanner Bibee of the Guardians and Carlos Rodon of the Yankees.

Fortunately, Hyde’s comments offer little reason to fear for Rodriguez’s ability to return healthy and effective next season. While Burnes is slated to hit free agency this November, Rodriguez figures to be joined by Eflin as the club’s top internal options next year, with ace Kyle Bradish and righty Tyler Wells both potentially in the mix to return to action in the second half of 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery back in June. Even with Rodriguez likely to be healthy entering next season, however, bolstering the rotation figures to be a priority for the Orioles this winter as they look to support their vaunted offensive core. That could mean pursuing a reunion with Burnes, or perhaps signing a second-tier arm expected to be available this winter such as Nathan Eovaldi or Sean Manaea.

Yankees Place Nestor Cortes On Injured List Due To Flexor Strain

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3:16pm: Cortes told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) today that he’ll be shut down for seven to ten days and will likely get a platelet-rich plasma injection in his ailing elbow. Neither Cortes nor Boone ruled out the possibility of the lefty returning at some point in the playoffs if the Yankees can make a deep enough run, but Cortes noted that the results of his MRI are being sent to doctors Neal ElAttrache and Keith Meister for additional opinions.

Chris Kirschner of The Athletic was among those to relay that while Boone told reporters that the club wasn’t ruling out a return for Cortes during the postseason, he shied away from describing the club as “optimistic” about Cortes’s prospects of pitching in the playoffs this year until Cortes’s shutdown period has come to a close and they “really see what we’re dealing with.”

1:30pm: The Yankees announced that Cortes has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a flexor strain in his left elbow. Stroman will start tonight’s game in his place, and Poteet has been recalled from Triple-A to take Cortes’ spot on the roster.

The injury will eliminate Cortes as a consideration for the beginning of the American League Division Series at the very least, though flexor strains are rarely short-term injuries. It’s fair to wonder whether Cortes will be an option for the Yankees at any point in the postseason. Manager Aaron Boone will likely provide more detail when he next meets with the media.

9:25am: The Yankees have punched their ticket to the postseason but are facing a potentially worrisome injury scenario, as lefty Nestor Cortes — who had been slated to start tonight’s game against the Orioles — is undergoing an MRI to evaluate his left elbow, as first reported by Jack Curry of the YES Network.

Assuming that takes him out of consideration to take the mound, the Yanks could go with Marcus Stroman (who recently moved to the ’pen) or call up an arm from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Right-handers Cody Poteet, Yoendrys Gomez and Will Warren are all on the 40-man roster and all fresh. Poteet has pitched the most big league innings of that trio this season (21) and had the most success as well (2.14 ERA). Curry adds that Poteet is headed to the Bronx, suggesting he’ll get the nod, though there’s no official word from the team just yet.

Cortes, 29, has pitched a career-high 174 1/3 innings in the majors this season and been quite effective along the way. He’s started 30 games (also a career-high) and notched a 3.77 earned run average while fanning a solid 22.8% of his opponents against a terrific 5.5% walk rate. Though he’s a pronounced fly-ball pitcher (31.1% grounder rate), Cortes has scaled back on some of the home run troubles that have plagued him in his career; he entered the season having averaged 1.49 round-trippers per nine innings pitched but has scaled that back to a more palatable (but still higher than average) 1.24 mark in 2024.

It’s not clear that Cortes would be a part of the Yankees’ postseason rotation, but he’d certainly play a key role in the bullpen even if the team opted to go with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and one of Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt in the top three spots. (Cole and Rodon are locks, health permitting.) Cortes is no stranger to working in relief. He’s primarily been a starter in recent seasons but has nevertheless seen 37% of his career appearances come in a relief setting.

The Yankees have a pair of veteran left-handed options in the ’pen regardless, with Tim Hill and Tim Mayza both on the roster, but neither can miss bats at the same level as Cortes. Mayza also carries alarming platoon splits, making him more ideal for strict left-on-left matchups. Cortes would also be an obvious option to give manager Aaron Boone some length out of the bullpen in the event of a short start during postseason play.

All of those scenarios are now on hold as the Yankees await word on Cortes’ apparently ailing elbow. Taking a step back to look at the bigger picture for Cortes himself, a serious injury would be about as poorly timed as possible (not that there’s ever a “good” time for a major health setback). He’s headed into his final offseason of arbitration eligibility and due a raise on this year’s $3.95MM salary. An injury that threatens a significant portion of his 2025 season could leave Cortes as a non-tender candidate, given that he’s slated to become a free agent following the 2025 season. And, if there is something at play that impacts his 2025 availability, that’d obviously cut short what should be his platform season in advance of free agency, where he’d stand as a clear candidate for a multi-year deal with good health.

Farhan Zaidi Discusses Job Security, Snell, Middle Infield

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters this evening. San Francisco pulled back to .500 with a win over the Diamondbacks tonight, but they missed the playoffs for the fifth time in Zaidi’s six-season tenure. That has led to speculation about his job security — which only ratcheted up in recent weeks amidst conflicting reports about ownership’s role in handling negotiations on Matt Chapman’s $151MM extension.

Zaidi declined to speculate about his job status but acknowledged that ownership is considering its options. “Anytime you have a disappointing season, it’s my job to evaluate everything in my purview, and it’s their job to evaluate everything in my purview, plus me,” the baseball ops leader said (link via Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). “And so I think that process is happening, and I understand it.”

The Giants and Zaidi agreed to an extension last winter that coincided with Bob Melvin’s hiring as manager. Both the manager and baseball operations leader are on guaranteed contracts for next year with options for the 2026 season. That certainly doesn’t ensure job security — teams regularly dismiss coaches or executives before the end of their deals — but it kept Zaidi from operating on a lame duck basis in 2024.

Any doubt about his status with the organization can’t stop Zaidi from planning the team’s approach to the upcoming offseason. That starts with Blake Snell, who has pitched at a Cy Young level for the better part of four months. The star left-hander is set to decline his $30MM player option and take another shot at a long-term contract.

Zaidi admitted the Giants expect Snell to opt out. He said the Giants will remain in the market but conceded they’ll face stiff competition. “I think it’s going to be a priority for everybody. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball the second half of the season,” Zaidi said of Snell’s market (relayed by Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). “And I think he’s going into free agency the same way he did last offseason. He wants to keep an open mind. We’re encouraged about what he said about how much he likes being here, how much he likes San Francisco and playing for Bob. We’ll be pretty high on his list, but we’re respecting the fact that he’s going to want to play out free agency.”

Snell turns 32 in December. He’ll probably take aim at a six-plus year deal that approaches $200MM. That kind of investment in starting pitching would be out of character for Zaidi. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Giants haven’t gone beyond the $90MM Logan Webb extension for a starting pitcher. The $62MM guarantee they awarded Snell late last winter is their biggest free agent rotation investment.

The Giants have been much more comfortable with short-term upside plays for starting pitchers who want to retest the market than they are with lengthy commitments. That operating procedure made them a strong fit when Snell’s market didn’t materialize the way he’d envisioned last winter, but it’ll present a challenge to keeping him around. San Francisco was content to let Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón walk after striking gold on short-term plays for both pitchers.

If Snell were to depart, Webb would retake his spot as the unquestioned staff ace. He’ll be followed in the rotation by Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray (who is unlikely to opt out of the $50MM remaining on his contract). The Giants could try to stretch Jordan Hicks back out as a starter while giving opportunities to younger arms like Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Keaton Winn. They’d surely add to that group in some capacity after dealing with a number of rotation injuries this season.

Zaidi also addressed the position player mix, specifically saying the Giants will “definitely be in the middle-infield market” (via Rubin). Tyler Fitzgerald has had a fantastic rookie season since taking over at shortstop. The Louisville product connected on his 15th homer tonight and is up to a .287/.338/.510 batting line through 325 plate appearances. His 31.1% strikeout rate is cause for some concern, but Fitzgerald’s power and defensive flexibility have earned him a role somewhere on the diamond.

That could come on the other side of the second base bag. The Giants waived Thairo Estrada last month after he hit .217/.247/.343 in 96 games. Estrada will be a minor league free agent at season’s end. Zaidi lauded Estrada’s professionalism and expressed some confidence that the infielder could rebound in another setting, but he indicated the Giants will go in a different direction.

Moving Fitzgerald to second base while bringing in an established shortstop is an option. Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim are the potential regulars in the free agent class. Zaidi expressed a desire to add “an established, plus defender in the middle infield” via free agency or trade. Adames and Kim would each fit the bill (although the former has had an uncharacteristic spike in errors this season). Both players are going to decline qualifying offers from their current teams and would require draft pick forfeiture. Adames might command a guarantee north of $150MM, while Kim’s deal could land in the $75-100MM range.

Bo Bichette has been the top speculative shortstop trade target. The Blue Jays didn’t seem inclined to move him even before he went on the injured list just before the deadline. Unless the Toronto front office reverses course, they probably won’t sell low during the winter.

There aren’t a ton of obvious middle infield trade candidates. The Reds may listen on Jonathan India, but he’s not the caliber of defender to which Zaidi alluded. That’s also the case with Tampa Bay second baseman Brandon Lowe. The Pirates would probably listen on Isiah Kiner-Falefa, whose offensive production has cratered since a deadline trade with Toronto. There’s a chance the Mariners could move on from J.P. Crawford as they try to reshape their offense.

A free agent pursuit of Adames or Kim, though, would be more straightforward. That’d allow the Giants to use Casey Schmitt in a utility capacity and potentially free them to play Marco Luciano in the outfield. Zaidi said tonight that they’re not closing the door on Luciano winning the second base job, but they’ll need to see improvement (especially defensively) next spring for that to happen.

One area where the Giants don’t seem inclined to make a long-term play: first base. Zaidi indicated the team was reluctant to make an investment that would impede the path for top prospect Bryce Eldridge, their 2023 first-round pick. Eldridge is still a month shy of his 20th birthday, but he mashed at a .335/.442/.619 clip in High-A. He has made cameos at the top two minor league levels, and while he’s unlikely to break camp next year, Zaidi suggested there’s a path for him to debut at some point in 2025.

“Once a guy is in Double-A, Triple-A, they’re in the picture,” Zaidi said (relayed by Baggarly). “I think it behooves us to have a roster that’s flexible enough that if he’s ready next year, even early in the year, there’s a spot for him. So that’s going to be really important for us. I don’t anticipate us really locking up the first base and DH spot.” There’s a solid group of free agent first basemen, headlined by Pete Alonso and Christian Walker, but that doesn’t appear to be a priority for San Francisco.

Of course, these preliminary plans could go in any number of directions if ownership decides to make a front office change. That should be determined within the next few weeks. Giants fans will want to check out both The Athletic and The Chronicle columns in full for more quotes from Zaidi about his vision for the winter.

Austin Riley Won’t Return In 2024

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The Braves announced that third baseman Austin Riley won’t return this year, neither in the regular season nor the postseason. A recent CT scan of his fractured hand showed that it hasn’t healed enough to take off his cast. At this point, there’s not enough time for him to heal and return to the club. David O’Brien of The Athletic was among those to relay word from manager Brian Snitker on X.

Riley suffered the injury August 18 when he was hit by a pitch on his hand. The following day, the club announced the fracture and that his timeline to return would be about six to eight weeks. There were only about six weeks left in the regular season at that moment, but there was still some hope of Riley being able to return for the postseason if the club played deep into October.

Unfortunately, his hand and the calendar have conspired against him and he won’t be able to help the club out this year, regardless of how long they stay alive without him. It’s an unfortunate development for Atlanta, as Riley has been one of their best players in recent years. From 2021 to the present, he’s hit 127 home runs and slashed .280/.348/.513 for a wRC+ 132. He scuffled at times in 2024 but still managed to hit 19 homers and slash .256/.322/.461 for a 116 wRC+ before suffering his injury.

This is just the latest in a string of injuries that have hamstrung the club all year. Spencer Strider required UCL surgery in April. Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a torn ACL in June. Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II missed significant time due to injuries as well, though both are back now.

Those injuries have played a key role in the club having a disappointing year. Coming into 2024, they were considered one of the top teams in the majors but they are currently fighting for their lives. At 85-71, they are 1.5 games back of the Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot in the National League, with the Mets also half a game ahead of the Snakes. Atlanta could still nab a spot, especially since they kick off a three-game set against the Mets tonight, but it’s not where they planned to be.

They will have to try to squeeze in to the playoffs without Riley and then proceed through the postseason without him as well. Gio Urshela was signed to cover for Riley at third and will presumably continue to do so. He has hit .270/.289/.423 for a wRC+ of 95 since joining the squad. Perhaps Whit Merrifield will factor in now that Albies is back at second, though Merrifield is playing through a left foot fracture.

Riley will still be a huge part of the club’s future, as he signed a ten-year, $212MM extension in August of 2022. That deal runs through 2032 and there’s a club option for 2033. Once his hand heals, he will presumably be in line for a fairly normal offseason in preparation for 2025.

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