J.J. Putz Joins Diamondbacks’ Front Office
The Diamondbacks announced that J.J. Putz, who spent the 2011-14 seasons as a member of the team’s bullpen, has been hired as a special assistant to president and CEO Derrick Hall. According to the press release, Putz will assist the team in both a baseball and business capacity. Some of the responsibilities outlined for him include attending community events, meeting with season-ticket holders, working with pitchers in Spring Training and visiting the club’s minor league affiliates throughout the course of the 2015 regular season.
“I am very excited to give back to the game that I love and have been fortunate to be a part of for 14 years,” said Putz in the press release. “To be a part of such a great organization is a blessing. My family and I have been so grateful to be a part of the Arizona community. It is a dream come true to work alongside a great man like Derrick. There are not enough great things to say about this organization. I am forever thankful.”
Hall expressed similar excitement about the opportunity to work alongside Putz: “J.J.’s performance on the field and popularity off the field make him a tremendous addition to the front office. His personality is a perfect fit for our culture and we are looking forward to him helping the D-backs in a number of different ways during this next phase of his career.”
While the press release doesn’t specifically state it, this most certainly appears to be the end of the 37-year-old Putz’s playing career. If that’s the case, Putz will cross the finish line with very strong marks. In 566 2/3 career innings, he posted a 3.08 ERA with 9.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, a 1.15 WHIP, a 37-33 record and 189 saves. Putz’s best season came with the 2007 Mariners, when he posted an exceptional 1.38 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and recorded 40 saves while finishing a league-high 65 games. He earned $38.875MM over his playing career, per Baseball-Reference.com, and his 189 saves rank 51st all-time. If this is indeed the end of the line for his days on a big league mound, we at MLBTR wish Putz the best of luck in his new career path and congratulate him on a very nice playing career.
White Sox Receiving Interest In Alexei Ramirez
The White Sox have received solid early trade interest in shortstop Alexei Ramirez, according to a report from Bruce Levine of CBSChicago.com. Chicago has been contacted by the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers regarding the 33-year-old.
Ramirez has one year left on his deal at an affordable $10MM. He also comes with a $10MM option for 2016, which carries a $1MM buyout. Though he could not maintain his hot start to the year, Ramirez ended with a solid .273/.305/.408 slash to go with 15 home runs and 21 steals. A well-regarded defender, Ramirez compiled 4.1 rWAR and 3.3 fWAR.
Were the White Sox to part with Ramirez, the team would look for a one-year stopgap. The long-term solution, the team hopes, is working its way up through the system in the person of Tim Anderson. The 2013 first-rounder reached the Double-A level last year.
Rockies Willing To Listen On Tulowitzki, Gonzalez
The Rockies have told other teams that they are willing to consider trade scenarios involving their two best players, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
While the likelihood of a deal remains rather slight, and neither player is being shopped around, the report does indicate that Colorado is much more open to moving one of its stars than it had been previously. Notably, Rosenthal says that the Rockies are telling clubs that they will not accept a return that does not provide fair value for the healthy production levels of both players.
Needless to say, there is a large gap between a theoretical willingness to trade a player and a realistic chance of a deal getting done. In this case, that divide may be wider than usual. While Tulowitzki is arguably the very best shortstop in baseball, he has missed long stretches of time in recent years with hip, groin, and wrist surgeries, along with various other maladies. And he is due $20MM per year from 2015-2019, plus $14MM in 2020 and a $4MM buyout in 2021.
Much the same story holds for Gonzalez, who has had five-win seasons but had both knee and finger surgery last year. Then there is the fact that he put up just a .238/.292/.431 batting line when he was in the lineup last year, a fall-off that can in large part be pinned on his health issues but which nevertheless must be considered. Gonzalez is owed $53MM over the next three seasons, a steal if he’s healthy but a big problem if he is not.
Athletics Will Not Trade Donaldson, Willing To Listen On Pitchers
The Athletics do not intend to deal away star third baseman Josh Donaldson despite speculation that he could be made available, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. That confirms what Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported (via Twitter) the day after the club’s season ended. However, the team will be willing to listen to trade interest in pitchers such as Jeff Samardzija and Scott Kazmir, according to Rosenthal.
Donaldson has emerged as one of the best third basemen and most valuable players in the game. While he is undoubtedly a bargain as a Super Two player with four more years of control, he will not be cheap. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that Donaldson will land $4.5MM this year, and that number will only continue to rise.
Donaldson’s rising cost led to suggestions that Oakland may consider dealing him. But while he would undoubtedly bring back a huge return, his departure would leave a gaping hole in any plans of near-term contention. As Rosenthal notes, A’s GM Billy Beane believes the team is still primed to reach the postseason next year.
As for Oakland’s staff, deals involving pitchers on expiring contracts are obviously more palatable, though Rosenthal hastens to add that the A’s are not shopping anyone and mentions that a trade deadline deal (if the team falls out of contention) could be the likelier outcome. Both Samardzija (projected $9.5MM arb salary) and Kazmir ($11MM salary with an additional $2MM luxury tax hit for his signing bonus) are cheap for their recent results, and the former in particular would be a popular trade target. In fact, MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained in his recent outlook for the A’s offseason that a deal involving Samardzija or Kazmir could make a good bit of sense.
Angels Acquire Cesar Ramos
The Angels have acquired lefty Cesar Ramos from the Rays in exchange for righty Mark Sappington, Los Angeles announced. This mark’s the day’s second swap for the Halos.
Ramos, 30, has spent most of his time in the pen but did make seven starts in 2014 for Tampa. He ultimately threw 82 2/3 frames of 3.70 ERA ball, with 7.2 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9. Ramos has generally been better against lefties, but does not have huge platoon splits over his career. He was, however, much more effective working out of the pen.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that Ramos will take home $1.3MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, making him a cheap and controllable add for an Angels club that has rather a bare cupboard in terms of left-handed relievers. That he can provide swingman capability as well is a nice bonus.
Sappington, meanwhile, is a 23-year-old right-hander who came into the 2014 season rated as the Halos’ fifth-best prospect by Baseball America. He took a big step back, however, and struggled mightily in a starting role. A demotion and mid-season move to the bullpen revitalized Sappington, however, as Mike DiGiovanna wrote recently for Baseball America. A long-term move to the pen had always seemed a distinct possibility, and Sappington’s big fastball and biting slider make him a potentially valuable power arm. (Over 32 relief frames last year at High-A, Sappington struck out 49 and walked ten.)
Astros Acquire Hank Conger
The Astros announced that they have acquired catcher Hank Conger from the Angels in exchange for fellow catcher Carlos Perez and right-hander Nick Tropeano.
Conger, 26, split time with Chris Iannetta in Anaheim this past season but wasn’t a traditional backup catcher, as he received about 40 percent of the club’s plate appearances at the position. A former first-round pick, Conger batted .221/.293/.325 with four homers and is a lifetime .224/.294/.353 hitter in 768 plate appearances. Conger frequented top prospect lists prior to reaching the Majors, twice making Baseball America’s Top 100 (No. 79 and No. 84) and four times appearing on the Top 100 list of Baseball Prospectus (ranging between Nos. 81-89).
Though Conger’s bat hasn’t picked up at the Major League level to match his excellent Triple-A track record (.298/.371/.470), the Astros have plenty to like about his work behind the plate. He caught a slightly below-average 24 percent of base-stealers in 2014, but shined in terms of pitch-framing according to both Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner.com. Both metrics rated him as one of the four best framing catchers in baseball. The arbitration-eligible Conger is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.1MM this season and can be controlled via the arbitration process through 2017.
As for the Angels, they’ll get the type of cost-controlled rotation option they spent much of last offseason searching for during the infancy of the 2014-15 offseason. Tropeano, 24, made his big league debut with the Astros in 2014 and posted a 4.57 ERA with a 13-to-9 K/BB ratio and a 40.3 percent ground-ball rate in four starts (21 2/3 innings).
Baseball America ranked Tropeano as the No. 18 prospect in Houston’s system heading into the 2014 campaign and has praised his outstanding changeup multiple times in the past, grading it the best change in the Astros’ system in 2011-12 as well as the best change in the South Atlantic League in 2012. BA wrote in their scouting report that Tropeano sat 90-92 mph with a plus changeup and fringy slider that needed more work, but they also noted that he projected as a back-of-the-rotation starter or possibly more, depending on that breaking pitch’s development. MLB.com ranked Tropeano 13th among Houston farmhands following the season, also noting that he needed to further refine his slider.
As for Perez, he will give the Angels a near-MLB-ready replacement to back up Iannetta. The 24-year-old Venezuelan spent the past season at the Triple-A level where he batted .259/.323/.385 with six homers. He caught 32 percent of base-stealers last season in the minors and has caught runners at a strong 33 percent clip throughout his minor league career. BA ranked him 28th among Houston prospects prior to 2013, praising his defensive skills by calling him “fluid behind the plate” while noting that he handled velocity well and had quick pop times and a strong arm.
For the Angels, this trade allows them to add MLB-ready rotation depth without sacrificing either of Howie Kendrick or David Freese, both of whom have been rumored to be on the trading block. That the Halos have added a potential rotation piece without spending is significant; GM Jerry Dipoto and owner Arte Moreno have both stated a repeated desire to remain under baseball’s $189MM luxury tax threshold, and the team already has $140MM of guarantees committed toward that gap, to say nothing of arbitration eligible players and league-minimum players to round out the roster.
As for the Astros, their focus on improving the pitching staff will be aided by Conger’s excellent framing abilities. Incumbent catcher Jason Castro is also strong in that department, though it wouldn’t be a shock him and his projected $3.9MM salary shopped in an offseason featuring a free agent market that is painfully thin on catchers. While that’s just my speculation, the Astros could likely get by with a tandem of Conger and Max Stassi behind the plate while addressing other needs by dealing Castro.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Francisco Liriano
Francisco Liriano‘s last venture into the free agent market came on the heels of a down season split between the Twins and White Sox, and resulted in a low-risk two-year deal for the Pirates. After playing an integral role in two straight postseason appearances for Pittsburgh, the lefty will hit the open market in a much stronger position.
Strengths/Pros
There’s little doubting that Liriano has the talent to be one of the most dominant arms in the game. As a 22-year-old rookie in 2006, he looked to be an unhittable force (2.16 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) that would have garnered Cy Young attention had Tommy John surgery not stopped his season at 121 innings. His recovery was longer than most, and while he struggled in 2008-09, he returned to form with a dominant 2010 season worth nearly six fWAR.
Over his past two seasons with the Pirates, Liriano has turned in 323 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA with 9.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and a strong 52.4 percent ground-ball rate. Sabermetric ERA estimators such as FIP and xFIP both peg Liriano’s true talent with Pittsburgh at a 3.26 ERA, so both old-school and new-school lines of thinking paint him as a well above-average pitcher when he’s at his best.
Part of the reason for Liriano’s resurgence with the Bucs is that he’s rediscovered some life on his fastball. The 31-year-old has averaged 92.8 mph on his heater over the past two seasons, whereas in some of his weakest seasons, his velocity sat 90-91 mph. He doesn’t have the 94.7 mph average he did as a rookie, but his average velocity is still tops among free agent lefties.
When Liriano’s velocity is working, he racks up strikeouts at a prolific clip. He’s whiffed 9.2 hitters per nine innings throughout his career (even including his down seasons), and this year’s 9.7 K/9 mark trails only Max Scherzer among free agent starters.
Liriano turned 31 after the season, so he’ll pitch the entire 2015 regular season at that age. That makes him younger than a number of his peers in the second tier of the starting pitching market, including Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy and former teammate Edinson Volquez.
Weaknesses/Cons
For as good as Liriano can be, there’s no ignoring the inconsistency and injuries that have, to some extent, defined his career to this point. Liriano has finished with an ERA well north of 5.00 in three full seasons, and in two of those seasons he walked five hitters per nine innings. Agent Greg Genske of the Legacy Agency can point to Liriano’s longer-than-usual recovery from Tommy John surgery as the culprit for those marks in 2009 and shoulder inflammation for the 2011 season, but Liriano floundered under two separate pitching coaches in 2012 and was injury-free that year.
Even in his two excellent seasons with the Pirates, Liriano spent significant time on the DL in each campaign. The first was a freak accident — a fracture in his non-throwing arm sustained while falling in his apartment — but the second injury, an oblique strain, did cost him more than a month in 2014.
All told, Liriano has had seven trips to the DL in a nine-year career. As such, he’s topped 180 innings just once — back in his stellar 2010 season. As I noted in my profile of fellow injury-prone starter Brandon McCarthy, teams are likely to show trepidation when it comes to multi-year contracts for pitchers without a track record of durability. No matter how great the upside, the downside of receiving 100-120 innings and having to patch together that rotation spot with a potentially replacement-level arm is concerning.
Control has oft been an issue for Liriano throughout his Major League tenure as well. He averaged 4.5 walks per nine innings in 2014 and has averaged 3.9 for his career. The Pirates made a qualifying offer to Liriano, and while some were surprised by the decision, I expect him to reject in search of multiple years due to his age and recent success. As Santana showed last spring, even if the market collapses, it’s still possible to find a one-year contract at or near the value of the QO late in the offseason.
Personal
Liriano is married and has three children with his wife, per the Pirates media guide. They make their home in the Dominican Republic in the offseason. He comes from a good baseball family, as his cousin is Giants setup man/closer Santiago Casilla.
Liriano has a reserved and quiet image but is seen as an excellent teammate by those who have played with him and was asked to take up a leadership role with the Pirates in recent years, particularly following the departure of the veteran A.J. Burnett.
Market
Beyond the top three starters on the market, Liriano is in the mix for the top second-tier starter along with names like McCarthy, Santana and Kenta Maeda. Liriano’s camp can likely build a case that he has the highest ceiling among those arms, and despite the undeniable risk associated with Liriano, it’s an arguable point. Liriano misses more bats than the other three and has had four very strong seasons at the Major League level, even if there was some distance between them.
A large number of teams are going to be in the market for rotation help, and many won’t be able to afford the likes of Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields. Liriano could be the top target for some clubs, and it’s possible that one of the teams who inks one of the big three could wish to add Liriano as a second boost to the rotation. The Red Sox are said to be eyeing multiple starters and have been connected to Liriano, and the Cubs, too, are known to be seeking multiple starting pitchers. Both teams will have a protected first-round pick, as will the Astros, D’Backs, Rockies, Rangers and Twins, each of whom has some need in the rotation (it’s unclear if the Twins would have any interest in rekindling that relationship, however). I’ll also add the Mariners, Yankees, Giants, Royals and Dodgers as teams I could see entering the mix, though the M’s of course seem likely to first focus on their offense.
An interesting point raised to me by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes is that Liriano and Russell Martin could make an interesting package this offseason. A team that signed Martin would have less to lose than others in adding Liriano, having already forfeited a pick, and the two have worked well together in the past. The Cubs, Rockies and Dodgers seem like at least plausible fits in that regard.
Expected Contract
Simply put, I’m of the strong belief that speculation regarding Liriano accepting a qualifying offer is largely overblown. Liriano will pitch all of next season at 31 years of age and is coming off a pair of strong seasons with flashes of brilliance in his past. There’s no ignoring the risk associated with his arm, but I believe that offers in the $10-15MM range could be waiting at the end of the offseason even if the multi-year deal Liriano’s camp covets ultimately fails to materialize.
Surrendering a first-round pick for Liriano is a risk, but there are 10 teams that can sign him for a second-round pick, and it’s not inconceivable that he ends up costing “only” a third-round pick if an aggressive team on the free agent front adds multiple players with QOs looming over their heads.
Players with this type of injury history and inconsistency rarely, if ever, get four-year deals, but we saw a less consistent Ubaldo Jimenez land four years last offseason. Regardless of how that deal looks now, it still serves as a reference point that upside can trump inconsistency. Liriano doesn’t have Jimenez’s durability so the fourth year feels like a reach (although I do feel it’s possible), but I believe he’ll receive some three-year offers. In the end, I’m predicting a three-year, $40MM contract for Liriano.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Nelson Cruz
Last winter, Nelson Cruz turned down a $14.1MM qualifying offer from the Rangers only to find that the market wasn’t anywhere close to what he had hoped. The Orioles wound up inking him to a one-year, $8MM deal which proved to be a brilliant signing. This time around, he shouldn’t have any trouble landing a multi-year deal.
Strengths/Pros
In 2014, Cruz turned in a .271/.333/.525 slash line with 40 homers on the way to his third career All-Star selection. Cruz’s 40 dingers weren’t just a career-high, it was the highest home run total of anyone in the majors in 2014. Cruz’s .525 slugging percentage was good for eighth in the majors, putting him above the likes of Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, and David Ortiz. In a season where the Orioles got just 26 games out of Matt Wieters and lost Manny Machado for half the year, Cruz stepped up in a major way and helped propel them to first place in the American League East. 
The advanced metrics were also very fond of Cruz’s 2014 performance. His 137 wRC+ put him in the upper echelon of sluggers. Meanwhile, Cruz’s .288 BABIP was actually a bit lower than his career average and his strikeout rate dipped, so there’s reason to believe he could bump his batting average a bit going forward. Cruz ranked seventh in MLB and first among this offseason’s free agent with a .254 ISO in 2014.
His 2014 may have been a pleasant surprise, but it didn’t come out of the blue. Cruz has a solid track record of quality offensive performance, dating back to his breakout 2009 season with the Rangers. In those six years, Cruz owns a .271/.332/.514 batting line with about 29 homers per season and an OPS+ of 123, showing that he was still well above average even when factoring in the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Park in Arlington.
Cruz has proven to be an elite hitter against left-handers with a career .314/.407/.569 while his .258/.310/.513 slash line against righties is nothing to sneeze at either.
Teams will also find his October body of work attractive, and with good reason. With his two home runs in the ALDS, Cruz leapfrogged some legendary names to climb up the all-time postseason home run ladder. With homers 15 and 16 against the Tigers, Cruz tied Carlos Beltran for ninth all-time. As Mark Saxon of ESPN.com noted, that vaulted him ahead of Alex Rodriguez, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, Joe DiMaggio, Mark McGwire, and, yes, Babe Ruth. Cruz got there in just 37 career postseason games, less than all of the other players listed.
Weaknesses/Cons
Unsurprisingly, the Orioles made a qualifying offer to Cruz, meaning that there will be draft pick compensation attached to signing him. In his last trip through free agency, the QO hurt his market (though his asking price was probably more to blame), leading to his discounted deal with Baltimore. Of course, the circumstances were different. For starters, Cruz was reportedly seeking as much as $75MM at the outset of free agency, unrealistic numbers that led to him settling in January. His value was also hurt by the tarnish of the Biogenesis scandal and the resulting 50-game suspension he served in 2013.
For all of his positives at the plate, there isn’t much that can be said for his agility or base running at this stage of his career. In 2014, Cruz put up a career-worst BsR of -3.3, putting him somewhere between “below average” and “poor” on the basepaths.
While Cruz graded well in a small sample this year (he had a UZR/150 of 3.8 with 3 defensive runs saved), he’s certainly not valued for his glove. He spent more of his time in the DH role, which he might be better suited for going forward. A team signing Cruz will be getting him for his mid-to-late 30s (he’ll start next year at 34 and turn 35 on July 1) and his agility in the field doesn’t figure to improve from here, to say the least.
Cruz’s WAR of 3.9 from this past season was his highest in years, a showing that was only bested by his 2010 season with the Rangers. In his last three seasons, his value has been teetering on that of a good player, but not necessarily a great one (although his suspension in 2013 did deflate that number).
On the whole, his age figures to dampen his value. While teams are usually looking to pay for prime years at the top of the market, Cruz’s remaining years could be a drop off from what we’ve seen over the last few.
Personal
As Steve Adams noted in his profile of Cruz last winter, he’s an accomplished two-sport athlete who played for the Dominican Republic Junior National Team in his younger days. His father also played professional baseball in the DR, so that sort of thing runs in the family. Cruz and his wife have two children.
Executive vice president Dan Duquette had great things to say about Cruz as a locker room presence earlier this month. “You can tell just by watching him, he’s the leader of the ballclub,” said Duquette, according to Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun. Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun wrote that Cruz created a comfort zone for the club’s younger latino players, like second baseman Jonathan Schoop. Adam Jones spoke glowingly about Cruz’s impact on the team.
Cruz changed agents in early October, joining Diego Bentz of Relativity Sports.
Market
As mentioned Encina’s piece, Duquette is realistic about his chances of keeping Cruz beyond this season. “He came here to have a platform year to get himself re-established to get him a long-term deal and that’s something we will have to consider,” Duquette said.
The Mariners probably regret passing on Cruz last offseason and they could try and make up for that mistake this time. They’re in need of a quality DH and are expected to chase the likes of Cruz and Victor Martinez. A reunion with the Rangers could be a possibility, but they previously balked at the idea of a three-year deal and it may not be any more palatable to them now. Cruz has been linked to the Yankees, though there isn’t a clear fit at this time with Beltran expected to return to right field. Giving Cruz DH time could be tough as well with Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira likely needing at-bats there. The Tigers, Royals, and Twins are also among the AL teams with potential interest. National League teams can and will certainly show interest, but it remains to be seen how far they will go given the concerns about his defense.
Expected Contract
Last season, Curtis Granderson signed a four-year, $60MM deal with the Mets, despite coming off of a season in which he missed 100 games. Cruz, meanwhile, played 159 games and belted 40 homers in his walk year. While there are many differences between the two players, including age (Granderson was 32 last winter, Cruz is 34), Cruz’s reps probably believe that they can match the years and top the total value of Granderson’s contract.
Complicating matters, of course, will be the qualifying offer and the same PED suspension that depressed his market value last winter. As Steve Adams wrote earlier this month about Melky Cabrera, no player with those two factors working against them has ever been able to cash in big in free agency.
Steve projected that Cabrera would land a five-year, $66.25MM and rightly noted that Cabrera is four years younger and has more defensive value. Still, Cruz has power on his side and that is at a major premium around the game. His age will preclude him from the same length on the contract but he can still get a very healthy payday for himself on a slightly shorter deal. I predict that Cruz will ultimately best Granderson’s deal from last winter with a four-year, $70MM deal.
Photo courtesy USA Today Sports Images.
Casey Janssen Joins ACES Agency
Former Blue Jays closer Casey Janssen has switched agents and will now be represented by ACES as he heads into free agency for the first time, reports MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes (on Twitter).
The 33-year-old Janssen didn’t pick a great time to have his worst season since 2009, and his new agents will be tasked with convincing interested parties that this year was an aberration as opposed to a genuine cause for concern. The former Jim McDowell client opened the year on the disabled list with a back strain that sidelined him through mid-May. Janssen’s struggles began after the All-Star break — during which he caught a violent case of food poisoning and lost eight pounds as a result. As John Lott wrote in the National Post in late August, Janssen himself would not use his illness as an excuse, but he did make five appearances in an eight-game stretch just starting on July 20, when he’d spent the previous two days attached to an IV to get fluids back into his body.
The end result of Janssen’s season was a 3.94 ERA with 5.5 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9, but the first- and second-half splits are eye-catching. He allowed three runs in 22 innings with a 14-to-1 K/BB ratio prior to the All-Star break (1.23 ERA) before posting a 6.46 ERA in 23 2/3 second-half innings. While there’s certainly a correlation with the food poisoning, detractors can note that Janssen’s strikeouts and ground-ball rate were down significantly, even in the first half.
As shown in MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker, ACES has negotiated multiple contracts for free agent relievers over the past couple of offseasons, including Brandon League, Randy Choate, Santiago Casilla, Joaquin Benoit and Grant Balfour, and they also negotiated Jonathan Papelbon‘s record contract with the Phillies.
Janssen’s switch is now reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent information on more than 2,000 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or notable omissions within the database, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2015
As explained in this series of posts, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. We’ve heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. You won’t find anything else like this on the Internet! Click here to download an Excel spreadsheet with all the projected salaries. The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2014 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).
Angels (11)
- Gordon Beckham (5.123) – $5.0MM
- Matt Joyce (5.123) – $4.9MM
- David Freese (5.028) – $6.3MM
- Fernando Salas (4.048) – $1.4MM
- Drew Butera (4.018) – $900K
- Cesar Ramos (4.003) – $1.3MM
- Vinnie Pestano (3.054) – $1.2MM – reached agreement 11-10-14
- Wade LeBlanc (3.038) – $800K
- Hector Santiago (3.016) – $2.2MM
- Collin Cowgill (2.151) – $900K
- Garrett Richards (2.148) – $4.0MM
Astros (8)
- Dexter Fowler (5.168) – $9.0MM
- Tony Sipp (5.100) – $1.5MM
- Jason Castro (4.104) – $3.9MM
- Hank Conger (3.051) – $1.1MM
- Carlos Corporan (3.019) – $1.0MM
- Alex Presley (2.162) – $1.2MM – reached agreement 11-18-14
- Chris Carter (2.159) – $3.5MM
- Marwin Gonzalez (2.133) – $1.0MM
Athletics (11)
- Ike Davis (4.155) – $4.4MM – reached agreement 12/2/14
- Sam Fuld (4.140) – $1.6MM
- Jesse Chavez (4.108) – $2.5MM
- Craig Gentry (4.084) – $1.5MM
- Josh Reddick (4.050) – $3.7MM
- Fernando Abad (3.073) – $900K
- Eric Sogard (3.064) – $1.0MM
- Brett Lawrie (3.055) – $1.8MM
- Fernando Rodriguez (3.053) – $900K – reached agreement 12/2/14
- Ryan Cook (3.036) – $1.3MM
- Jarrod Parker (3.000) – $900K
Blue Jays (4)
- Marco Estrada (5.035) – $4.7MM
- Brett Cecil (4.152) – $2.6MM
- Danny Valencia (3.118) – $1.7MM
- Josh Donaldson (2.158) – $4.5MM
Braves (2)
- James Russell (5.000) – $2.4MM
- Mike Minor (3.138) – $5.1MM
Brewers (3)
- Gerardo Parra (5.145) – $6.4MM
- Brandon Kintzler (3.101) – $900K – reached agreement 12-2-14
- Martin Maldonado (2.156) – $1.0MM
Cardinals (5)
- Jon Jay (4.134) – $4.5MM
- Peter Bourjos (4.062) – $1.6MM
- Jordan Walden (4.043) – $3.0MM – extended 12-23-14
- Lance Lynn (3.119) – $5.5MM
- Tony Cruz (3.105) – $700K
Cubs (8)
- John Baker (5.141) – $1.1MM
- Chris Coghlan (4.148) – $1.4MM
- Luis Valbuena (4.148) – $3.1MM
- Travis Wood (4.004) – $5.5MM
- Pedro Strop (3.156) – $2.4MM
- Jake Arrieta (3.145) – $4.1MM
- Felix Doubront (3.120) – $1.3MM
- Welington Castillo (3.009) – $2.1MM
Diamondbacks (6)
- Cliff Pennington (5.114) – $3.3MM – reached agreement 12-28-14
- David Hernandez (5.095) – $2.1MM – reached agreement 12-17-14
- Daniel Hudson (4.117) – $700K
- Jeremy Hellickson (4.045) – $3.9MM
- Mark Trumbo (4.027) – $5.7MM
- Addison Reed (3.027) – $3.8MM
Dodgers (6)
- A.J. Ellis (4.151) – $3.8MM
- Kenley Jansen (4.073) – $8.2MM
- Darwin Barney (4.053) – $2.5MM – reached agreement 12-2-14
- Justin Turner (4.045) – $2.2MM
- Juan Nicasio (3.084) – $2.4MM
- Joe Wieland (2.161) – $500K – avoided arbitration 12-6-14
Giants (7)
- Casey McGehee (5.028) – $3.5MM
- Gregor Blanco (4.164) – $3.5MM
- Yusmeiro Petit (4.016) – $1.6MM
- Brandon Belt (3.128) – $3.4MM
- Travis Ishikawa (4.012) – $800K – reached agreement 12-4-14
- Brandon Crawford (3.094) – $2.5MM
- Hector Sanchez (2.166) – $1.0MM
Indians (6)
- Brandon Moss (4.160) – $7.1MM
- Marc Rzepczynski (4.132) – $1.9MM
- Josh Tomlin (4.033) – $1.7MM
- Carlos Carrasco (3.147) – $1.4MM
- Bryan Shaw (3.081) – $1.5MM
- Lonnie Chisenhall (3.027) – $2.2MM
Mariners (7)
- Austin Jackson (5.000) – $8.0MM
- Michael Saunders (4.138) – $2.9MM
- Logan Morrison (4.069) – $2.6MM
- Justin Ruggiano (4.019) – $2.5MM
- Charlie Furbush (3.121) – $1.0MM
- Tom Wilhelmsen (3.091) – $2.1MM
- Dustin Ackley (3.087) – $2.8MM
Marlins (7)
- Mat Latos (5.079) – $8.4MM
- Mike Dunn (4.079) – $2.3MM
- Aaron Crow (4.000) – $2.0MM
- Steve Cishek (3.143) – $6.9MM
- Henderson Alvarez (3.051) – $4.5MM
- David Phelps (2.156) – $1.3MM
- Dee Gordon (2.154) – $2.5MM
Mets (6)
- Bobby Parnell (5.132) – $3.7MM
- Daniel Murphy (5.109) – $8.3MM
- Dillon Gee (4.028) – $5.1MM
- Ruben Tejada (3.171) – $1.7MM
- Lucas Duda (3.137) – $4.3MM
- Jenrry Mejia (2.140) – $3.1MM
Nationals (11)
- Kevin Frandsen (5.151) – $1.2MM – reached agreement 11-13-14
- Tyler Clippard (5.148) – $9.3MM
- Jerry Blevins (5.081) – $2.2MM
- Doug Fister (5.058) – $11.4MM
- Craig Stammen (4.160) – $2.1MM
- Drew Storen (4.140) – $5.8MM
- Stephen Strasburg (4.118) – $8.1MM
- Wilson Ramos (4.047) – $3.2MM
- Jose Lobaton (3.138) – $1.2MM
- Danny Espinosa (3.113) – $2.3MM
- Bryce Harper (2.159) – $2.5MM – extended 12/15/14
Orioles (11)
- Alejandro De Aza (5.139) – $5.9MM
- Matt Wieters (5.129) – $7.9MM
- Steve Pearce (5.116) – $2.2MM
- Bud Norris (5.068) – $8.7MM
- Tommy Hunter (5.066) – $4.4MM
- Chris Davis (5.061) – $11.8MM
- Brian Matusz (4.156) – $2.7MM
- Chris Tillman (3.113) – $5.4MM
- Miguel Gonzalez (3.095) – $3.7MM
- Ryan Flaherty (3.000) – $1.0MM
- Zach Britton (2.158) – $3.2MM
Padres (7)
- Shawn Kelley (5.128) – $2.5MM
- Ian Kennedy (5.124) – $10.3MM
- Andrew Cashner (4.126) – $4.3MM
- Tyson Ross (3.126) – $5.7MM
- Yonder Alonso (3.116) – $1.6MM
- Dale Thayer (3.071) – $1.3MM
- Alexi Amarista (3.053) – $1.5MM
Phillies (3)
- Ben Revere (3.149) – $4.0MM
- Domonic Brown (3.078) – $2.6MM
- Cesar Jimenez (3.020) – reached agreement 10-23-14
Pirates (12)
- Sean Rodriguez (5.133) – $2.0MM
- Antonio Bastardo (5.054) – $2.8MM
- Neil Walker (4.166) – $8.6MM
- Francisco Cervelli (4.146) – $1.1MM
- Mark Melancon (4.098) – $7.6MM
- Chris Stewart (4.091) – $1.3MM
- Travis Snider (4.091) – $2.0MM
- Pedro Alvarez (4.085) – $5.5MM
- Tony Watson (3.101) – $2.0MM
- Josh Harrison (3.033) – $2.2MM
- Jared Hughes (2.162) – $1.1MM
- Vance Worley (2.139) – $2.9MM
Rangers (4)
- Adam Rosales (5.022) – $1.0MM
- Ross Detwiler (5.002) – $3.3MM
- Neftali Feliz (4.151) – $4.1MM
- Mitch Moreland (4.067) – $2.8MM
Rays (8)
- John Jaso (5.032) – $3.3MM
- Kevin Jepsen (4.163) – $2.6MM
- Jake McGee (3.127) – $3.8MM
- Logan Forsythe (3.113) – $1.2MM
- Desmond Jennings (3.101) – $3.2MM
- Rene Rivera (3.082) – $1.3MM
- Alex Cobb (3.061) – $4.5MM
- Drew Smyly (2.154) – $3.0MM
Red Sox (4)
- Rick Porcello (5.170) – $12.2MM
- Junichi Tazawa (4.086) – $2.0MM
- Daniel Nava (3.045) – $1.9MM
- Wade Miley (3.044) – $4.3MM
Reds (7)
- Mike Leake (5.000) – $9.5MM
- Chris Heisey (4.157) – $2.2MM
- Logan Ondrusek (4.125) – $2.3MM
- Aroldis Chapman (4.034) – $8.3MM
- Zack Cozart (3.084) – $2.3MM
- Todd Frazier (3.071) – $4.6MM
- Devin Mesoraco (3.028) – $2.8MM
Rockies (8)
- Drew Stubbs (5.047) – $5.7MM
- Jhoulys Chacin (5.012) – $4.9MM
- Rex Brothers (3.117) – $1.3MM
- Michael McKenry (3.097) – $1.5MM
- Adam Ottavino (3.087) – $1.0MM
- Jordan Lyles (3.060) – $2.5MM
- Tyler Chatwood (3.039) – $1.0MM
- Wilin Rosario (3.023) – $3.6MM
Royals (9)
- Greg Holland (4.028) – $9.3MM
- Eric Hosmer (3.146) – $5.2MM
- Mike Moustakas (3.111) – $2.7MM
- Tim Collins (3.097) – $1.5MM
- Jarrod Dyson (3.088) – $1.3MM
- Danny Duffy (3.085) – $2.6MM
- Lorenzo Cain (3.074) – $2.3MM
- Louis Coleman (2.162) – $700K
- Kelvin Herrera (2.157) – $1.5MM
Tigers (4)
- David Price (5.164) – $18.9MM
- Alfredo Simon (5.142) – $5.1MM
- Al Alburquerque (3.147) – $1.7MM
- J.D. Martinez (3.036) – $2.9MM
Twins (6)
- Brian Duensing (5.104) – $2.5MM
- Jordan Schafer (4.121) – $1.5MM
- Trevor Plouffe (3.162) – $4.3MM
- Eduardo Nunez (3.090) – $1.2MM
- Tommy Milone (2.165) – $2.8MM
- Casey Fien (2.143) – $1.1MM
White Sox (6)
- Jeff Samardzija (5.028) – $9.5MM
- Tyler Flowers (3.148) – $2.1MM
- Dayan Viciedo (3.123) – $4.4MM
- Hector Noesi (3.006) – $1.9MM
- Nate Jones (3.000) – $600K
- Javy Guerra (2.133) – $1.3MM
Yankees (6)
- Esmil Rogers (4.088) – $1.9MM – reached agreement 12-2-14
- Ivan Nova (4.024) – $3.3MM
- Michael Pineda (3.099) – $2.1MM
- David Huff (3.062) – $700K
- David Carpenter (3.016) – $1.1MM
- Nathan Eovaldi (3.013) – $3.1MM