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Poll: American League Playoff Outlook

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We’re now a little over a quarter of the way through the 2025 regular season. With Memorial Day fast approaching, it’s hard for struggling teams to continue arguing that it’s still early. That isn’t to say playoff positions are set in stone, of course; on this day last year, the Mariners and Twins were firmly in playoff position while the eventual AL West champion Astros were in fourth place in the division and seven games under .500.

If the season ended today, the Tigers, Yankees, Mariners, Guardians, Royals, and Twins would be your playoff teams in the American League this year. With four-and-a-half months left in the baseball calendar, which team currently outside of that group has the best chance of breaking their way into the mix?

Here’s a look at a few of the options, listed in order of record entering play today:

Houston Astros (22-20)

Houston’s first season in a post-Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman world has been an uneven one. Jose Altuve does not look like the difference-maker he once was in his age-35 season. He’s hitting .256/.302/.369 (90 wRC+) and has effectively played at replacement level. His batted-ball profile suggests he may even be a bit fortunate to have the modest rate stats he currently possesses. Yordan Alvarez is injured, Yainer Diaz is well-below average at the plate, and neither Christian Walker nor Cam Smith is producing the way Houston hoped.

On the positive side, Isaac Paredes (141 wRC+) and Jeremy Pena (139 wRC+) have both been excellent at the plate. Hunter Brown is looking like an early Cy Young candidate, and the late-inning duo of Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu is one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. If Alvarez can get healthy and the team can find some outfield help this summer, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Houston make its tenth consecutive postseason.

Texas Rangers (23-21)

Entering the season, the Rangers looked like they had an excellent offense that would be held down by questions about the pitching staff. The reality they’ve faced this year is the opposite: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Jake Burger, and Joc Pederson have all been somewhere between disappointing and terrible. Corey Seager has been injured, and Evan Carter started the year in the minors. Josh Jung, Josh Smith, and Wyatt Langford have been the only standout performers in the lineup so far this year.

That’s been offset by phenomenal performances in the rotation despite injuries to Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Kumar Rocker. Jacob deGrom is back and striking out a third of batters like it’s 2019, but he’s arguably the #3 starter in a rotation where Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle have sub-2.00 ERAs. Even emergency addition Patrick Corbin is turning back the clock with a 3.35 ERA across seven starts. If the Rangers’ vaunted offense can wake up a bit, it’s easy to imagine the 2023 World Series champs making a run.

The Athletics (22-21)

John Fisher’s aggressive offseason after abandoning Oakland for West Sacramento is paying off in the standings, though it’s mostly been due to young players breaking out. Jacob Wilson is looking like a unicorn in the mold of Luis Arraez. Tyler Soderstrom has emerged as a breakout slugger. Shea Langeliers is in the midst of a career year at the dish.

The pitching is cause for concern, but Gunnar Hoglund has looked good in his first taste of big league action, while both Luis Severino and Mason Miller have peripherals that suggest their results should improve with time. Three of last year’s most productive players — Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, and Brent Rooker — have taken steps backward, however. That will limit the club’s potential if they can’t get back on track.

Toronto Blue Jays (22-22)

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now in the fold for life, now all the Blue Jays have to do is win with him. The returns on that front are mixed. Veterans like George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt are doing their best to make everyone forget about their age, but the performances of longer-term pieces like Anthony Santander, Bowden Francis and Jose Berrios are deeply concerning. Jeff Hoffman has been among baseball’s best closers so far and Bo Bichette is an above-average hitter again, but Alejandro Kirk has been pedestrian at the plate and Guerrero’s 131 wRC+, while terrific relative to the rest of the league, represents a major step back from last year’s 165. A healthy and effective return from future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer would go a long way to stabilizing the rotation, but players like Santander and Berrios will need to get going if playoff baseball is to return to Canada this year.

Boston Red Sox (22-23)

After pushing in by adding Garrett Crochet and Bregman this winter, the Red Sox entered the year looking like one of the AL’s best teams. While they haven’t exactly been bad, the season certainly hasn’t worked out that way so far. Crochet and Bregman are both as-advertised or better, and Wilyer Abreu is looking like a bona fide lefty slugger to pair with Rafael Devers.

Kristian Campbell has begun to cool off after a torrid start, however, and the rotation injuries have begun to pile up. It’s anyone’s guess who will be playing first base on any given day. Triston Casas is out for the year. Romy Gonzalez is on the injured list. Devers doesn’t sound keen on another position change. Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are knocking on the door in the minors, and perhaps their eventual debuts will be the spark this team needs to get back into the playoff mix.

The Rest Of The Field

The five teams mentioned above are all within two games of a Wild Card spot, but the rest of the AL can’t be counted out. The Rays will benefit from the eventual returns of players like Ha-Seong Kim and Shane McClanahan, but they need more offense from key pieces like Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Junior Caminero. The Orioles should have the lineup to compete, but they have some key bats struggling and will need to figure out their disastrous pitching staff to get back into the race. The Angels have faded after a hot start, but players like Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward should start hitting eventually. The White Sox still have an abysmal offense, but the rotation has been surprisingly solid with Rule 5 pick Shane Smith in particular looking like a steal.

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Which of the teams outside of the AL playoff picture entering play today do MLBTR readers think stands the best chance of making it into the postseason? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Current Non-Playoff Team Is Most Likely To Make The Postseason In 2025?
Boston Red Sox 26.54% (1,248 votes)
Texas Rangers 20.14% (947 votes)
Houston Astros 19.60% (922 votes)
Athletics 8.65% (407 votes)
Toronto Blue Jays 7.95% (374 votes)
The current six teams in playoff position will hold on and reach the postseason. 7.14% (336 votes)
Baltimore Orioles 4.42% (208 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 2.34% (110 votes)
Chicago White Sox 1.81% (85 votes)
Los Angeles Angels 1.40% (66 votes)
Total Votes: 4,703

Tony Kemp Announces Retirement

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Veteran infielder/outfielder Tony Kemp has announced his retirement via social media (X link, Instagram link).

“After 12 years of professional baseball and nine seasons in the big leagues, I’ve decided to hang up the spikes,” Kemp wrote. In a lengthy farewell, he went on to thank his parents, his wife, his brother, Vanderbilt coach Tim Corbin, all of the organizations for which he suited up in the majors (Astros, Cubs, A’s, Orioles) and all of the training staffs who incredibly helped him avoid spending even one day of his career on the injured list. The 5’6″ Kemp also offered a heartfelt message for “undersized” ballplayers everywhere:

“To the undersized ballplayer: I see you, I hear you, and I understand you. With all of the metrics and data in the game of baseball today, there is still one measurement they can’t compute: your heart. Continue to play the game the right way and respect it. The game will reward you, I promise. Leave no doubt and give everything you have like someone is watching you play baseball for the first time. I’m rooting for you all.”

Kemp, 33, was the Astros’ fifth-round pick out of Vanderbilt back in 2013. He was in the big leagues three years later, appearing in 59 games and hitting .217/.296/.325 in a small sample of 136 plate appearances. Kemp received a fleeting cup of coffee with the 2017 Astros (39 plate appearances) but landed his first real look in the majors in 2018. He totaled 97 games and 295 plate appearances for Houston that year and delivered a nice .263/.351/.392 batting line (110 wRC+) with a strong 10.8% walk rate against a tiny 14.9% strikeout rate.

The following season, Kemp turned in a decent performance through 66 games with Houston before being flipped to the Cubs in a deadline deal that brought catcher Martin Maldonado to the Astros. He struggled in a short 44-game tenure with the Cubs, who traded him to the A’s in an offseason deal netting them first baseman Alfonso Rivas III.

It proved to be a terrific move by the Athletics. Kemp delivered the best work of his career in green and gold, spending four seasons with the A’s and playing quite well for the first three. From 2020-22, he posted a .252/.341/.361 slash (105 wRC+) with savvy baserunning and quality defense at both second base and in left field. Kemp never hit for much power, but during that three-year peak with the A’s he drew walks at a 10.5% clip and flashed continually plus bat-to-ball skills, fanning in only 12.5% of his plate appearances.

The 2023 season was a tough one, as Kemp hit just .209/.303/.304 in 417 turns at the plate. Oakland cut him loose that offseason. Kemp went on to sign minor league deals with the Reds, Orioles and Twins. He briefly appeared in the majors with Baltimore last season, getting into five games but going hitless in 10 plate appearances.

Kemp spent a dozen years in pro ball, saw MLB time in nine seasons with four teams, and will retire with a .237/.324/.351 batting line in 739 MLB games and 2247 plate appearances. He picked up more than six years of big league service and, per Baseball-Reference, secured more than $8.5MM in career earnings (in addition to his $250K signing bonus out of the draft). Kemp was a popular teammate and a fan favorite based on his self-described “grinder mentality” on the diamond. Congrats to Tony on a successful career, and best wishes in whatever steps lie ahead.

A’s Return Rule 5 Pick Noah Murdock To Royals

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The A’s returned Rule 5 draftee Noah Murdock to the Royals, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Kansas City assigned him to Triple-A Omaha. Murdock does not occupy a spot on their 40-man roster.

This was the likeliest outcome after the A’s designated Murdock for assignment last Friday. Any team that traded for him or claimed him off waivers would have taken on the same Rule 5 restrictions. They would have needed to carry him in the big league bullpen. Murdock evidently went unclaimed and heads back to the team that drafted him in the seventh round in 2019.

Murdock, 26, divided his 2024 season between Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. He worked to a 2.22 earned run average over 24 1/3 innings at the former level. Murdock posted a 3.76 ERA through 38 1/3 frames in Triple-A. He combined for a 27% strikeout rate and a huge 59.7% ground-ball percentage, though that came with an alarming 15.4% walk rate.

The 6’8″ righty broke camp with the A’s after being selected with the fifth pick in last winter’s Rule 5 draft. His first 14 big league appearances did not go well, as he was blitzed for 25 runs across 17 1/3 innings. The free passes remained far too problematic. Murdock walked 20 batters and hit two more among the 98 he faced. The grounder rates that have been his calling card in the minors weren’t there against big league competition. Murdock posted a 42.6% ground-ball percentage and a 21.4% strikeout rate — both decent numbers but not nearly enough to offset the free passes.

A’s Designate Noah Murdock For Assignment

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The A’s designated Rule 5 pick Noah Murdock for assignment, relays Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. Righty Elvis Alvarado was recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas to take his spot in the bullpen. Alvarado is already on the 40-man roster, so the move drops their count to 39.

Murdock, 26, was the fourth player selected in last winter’s Rule 5 draft. (The A’s had the fifth pick, but Colorado passed at #2.) The A’s took the reliever out of the Kansas City farm system. Murdock divided his 2024 season between Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha. He worked to a 2.22 earned run average over 24 1/3 innings at the former level. Murdock posted a 3.76 ERA through 38 1/3 frames in Triple-A. He combined for a 27% strikeout rate and a huge 59.7% ground-ball percentage, though that came with an alarming 15.4% walk rate.

The 6’8″ righty broke camp and has made his first 14 big league appearances. They haven’t gone well, as he’s been blitzed for 25 runs across 17 1/3 innings. The free passes have remained far too problematic. Murdock has walked 20 batters and hit two more among the 98 he has faced. The grounder rates that have been his calling card in the minors haven’t been there against big league competition. Murdock posted a 42.6% ground-ball percentage and a 21.4% strikeout rate — both decent numbers but not nearly enough to offset the free passes.

Teams must keep their Rule 5 picks on the major league roster or injured list for the entire season to gain their long-term contractual rights. The A’s are out to a solid 20-18 start and at the very least look like a fringe Wild Card contender. They decided they could no longer afford to devote a middle relief spot to a pitcher who was struggling to such an extent.

The A’s will trade Murdock or, much more likely, place him on waivers in the next few days. That’ll give the rest of the league an opportunity to acquire him, though they’d assume the same Rule 5 obligations if they do so. If Murdock clears waivers, the A’s would need to offer him back to the Royals for $50K. (Teams pay the former club $100K when they make a Rule 5 pick.) Kansas City would not need to put him on the 40-man roster and could return him to the minor league ranks, probably back in Omaha.

Alvarado receives the first major league call of his career. The 26-year-old righty signed a split major league contract with the Pirates at the start of the offseason. He didn’t last the entire winter on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster, but the A’s claimed him off waivers in January. He’s out to a decent start in Las Vegas, tallying 15 2/3 frames of eight-run ball in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He has recorded 22 strikeouts against four walks while picking up five saves in 14 appearances. His fastball is averaging a blistering 99 MPH. Alvarado has been prone to walks for most of his career, but he’s a power arm with a track record of missing bats in the minors.

Poll: Jacob Wilson’s Hot Start

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When the Athletics began to properly invest in the franchise for the first time in years this offseason, putting together their largest Opening Day payroll since 2021 and highest payroll for luxury tax purposes in franchise history, it came with an understanding that the additions of players like Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs would not be enough to propel the club to contention in a crowded AL West division without substantial steps forward from young talent already within the organization.

Fortunately for the A’s, that’s exactly what has happened. The club’s first season in West Sacramento is going quite well, with a 20-18 record that places them second in the AL West even after they dropped their latest series to the division-leading Mariners. With the division’s recent top dogs in Houston and Arlington now both struggling to stay above .500, the A’s have been able to fight their way into contention thanks in large part to excellent performances from recent first-round picks Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom. Wilson, in particular, is an interesting player to consider after he rattled off a 15-game hit streak to open the season. During that time, he hit .368/.368/.544 across 57 plate appearances.

It’s an impressive slash line, to be sure, but his .358 BABIP during that time did not exactly appear sustainable, especially when he had not drawn a single walk during that stretch. Of course, looking at sample sizes of less than 60 plate appearances comes with far too much noise to be all that valuable when discussing balls in play. Wilson took the 150th plate appearance of the season yesterday, providing a slightly larger body of work to examine. Overall, he’s hitting .357/.383/.476 with a wRC+ of 148. He’s walking just 4.0% of the time, and hardly striking out more than that (4.7%). His .361 BABIP is well outside of the typically expected range, and his 2.2% barrel rate shows that he won’t be hitting for much power any time soon; if anything, he’s hitting for more power now (.119 ISO) than expected based on his batted ball results.

All of that suggests that Wilson is extremely unlikely to keep up his current level of production, but that shouldn’t be taken as a suggestion that he’s guaranteed to revert to the 86 wRC+ he posted in 28 games last year. There are two notable hitters who have found great success in the majors in recent years with a similar approach to Wilson at the plate: Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan. Of course, there’s also plenty of players like Nick Madrigal and Billy Hamilton who fail to find success in the majors due to their lack of power. The question remains: has Wilson shown enough similarities to players like Kwan and Arraez that he can be counted on for sustained success as an above-average MLB hitter?

It’s hard to come up with a more straightforward comp for Wilson than Arraez. After all, one need look no further than Arraez’s 2023 season with the Marlins to find a nearly mirror image of what Wilson has done so far in 2025. In 147 games with the Marlins that year, Arraez hit an excellent .354/.393/.469 with a wRC+ of 130. He struck out in 5.5% of his at-bats while walking 5.7% of the time, and his ISO sat at just .115 while he floated a .362 BABIP. Arraez accomplished this feat thanks primarily to his line drive rate, which sat at an MLB-best 28.5%. Hitting the ball on a line that often is a nearly surefire way to rack up a lot of hits. Another key factor is Arraez’s relatively small amount of fly balls; just 28.7% of his batted balls were hit in the air that year, a bottom-ten figure in the sport. That puts obvious limitations on a player’s home run power, but it’s great news for a player’s batting average.

Of course, it should be remembered that Arraez is something of a unicorn. Attempting to replicate his approach leaves a player very prone to year-to-year swings in productivity, as seen by the fact that Arraez himself has stuck with that approach in 2024 and ’25 but seen his wRC+ drop to just 109 in that time due to a 48-point drop in BABIP. Some of that can be explained by a small dip in line drive rate (26.3%), but much of it comes down to the randomness involved with batted balls that aren’t hit especially hard. Perhaps Kwan’s approach, which involves more patience (39.4% career swing rate) than either Arraez (46.0%) or Wilson (51.8%), could be an option for Wilson if replicating Arraez doesn’t work out. But for now, Wilson’s Arraez-esque approach does seem to be working for him. His 23.7% line-drive rate is hardly the best in the league right now, but it’s still a well above-average figure. And his ability to limit soft contact is very similar to Arraez; 16.8% of Wilson’s batted balls have been hit softly this year, as compared to 15.2% of Arraez’s last season.

How do MLBTR readers view Wilson’s future? Will he be able to emerge as a rare unicorn able to get by on pure contact like Arraez, or will he need to make adjustments to be more patient at the plate like Kwan in order to be an above-average hitter? Have your say in the poll below:

What does the future hold for Jacob Wilson?
He'll be an All-Star-caliber player 48.41% (1,383 votes)
He'll be a solid regular but not this good 46.76% (1,336 votes)
He won't stick as an everyday player for long 4.83% (138 votes)
Total Votes: 2,857

Zack Gelof Pulled Off Rehab Stint With Rib Injury

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The A’s are pulling Zack Gelof back from his minor league rehab assignment, relays Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. The second baseman sustained a stress reaction in his ribs and has been shut down from swinging a bat. The team didn’t provide a timetable for his return.

That’s a distinct injury from the one that cost Gelof the first month of the season. A Spring Training hit-by-pitch resulted in a hamate fracture in his right wrist. The infielder underwent surgery that shelved him for roughly four weeks. The A’s sent him to Triple-A Las Vegas on the rehab stint last Monday. Gelof went 1-7 over three games with the Aviators before apparently suffering a new injury.

The A’s initially relied on rookie Max Muncy at second base. He hit just .171 with one homer over his first 21 big league games. They optioned him three weeks into April, turning second base to offseason signee Luis Urías in the process. Urías hadn’t hit much between 2023-24, but he’s been good early in his A’s tenure. He’s hitting .246/.342/.492 with 10 walks and nine strikeouts over 23 games. Urías has popped five homers in 74 plate appearances, already topping his respective totals of the past two seasons. He has been far better in Sacramento’s hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park than he has on the road.

Gelof is coming off a disappointing second season in the big leagues. He’d broken through with a .267/.337/.504 slash over 300 plate appearances during his rookie season. The line dropped to .211/.270/.362 over 547 trips to the dish a year ago. Gelof connected on 17 homers and stole 25 bases, but the power-speed combination was undercut by huge whiff rates. He fanned more than 34% of the time and led the American League with 188 punchouts overall.

The A’s could transfer Gelof to the 60-day injured list once they need a 40-man roster spot. They’d be able to make such a move retroactive to Opening Day even though he’s now dealing with a new injury since he didn’t return to the active roster in the interim.

Ross Stripling Retires

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Right-handed pitcher Ross Stripling announced his retirement this morning over social media. He signs off after nine big league seasons with the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, and Athletics.

“After 13 seasons and full of tremendous pride and gratitude, it’s time to hang up the cleats. I never could have imagined the experiences and memories I’d be a part of. They exceeded every hope that my younger self could have dreamt for my baseball career,” Stripling wrote. “It never could have been possible without my family and friends. I also want to give a huge thank you to all my coaches and teammates over the years. I had so much love and support along the way, and I’m thankful to everyone that was a part of it in any form or fashion. All of you helped me be the best baseball player I could be. This has been an unbelievable honor, and I feel incredibly lucky to be so fulfilled and content with leaving the game behind. Now, l’m excited to be home and begin the next chapter of life with my amazing family.”

Stripling spent most of his professional career in the Dodgers organization. A fifth-round draft pick in 2012, he worked his way up the system over the next four years, overcoming early-career Tommy John surgery to make his MLB debut as a member of the Opening Day rotation in 2016. Over four and a half big league seasons as both a starter and reliever for the Dodgers, he pitched more than 400 innings with a 3.68 ERA. He was an All-Star in 2018 and pitched for L.A. in the playoffs in 2016, ’17, and ’19, including three appearances in the 2017 World Series. Unfortunately, he struggled in 2020 and was traded ahead of the deadline, but he still earned a World Series ring for his performance with the Dodgers over the first half of the season.

The first season and a half of Stripling’s Blue Jays tenure weren’t anything to write home about, but his 2022 campaign in Toronto was arguably the best of his career. Across 32 games (24 starts), he set career-highs in wins (10) and FanGraphs WAR (3.0) and career-lows in ERA (3.01) and walk rate (3.7%). He would then turn that performance into a two-year $25 million guarantee from the Giants in free agency.

The two years on that contract would prove to be the final seasons of Stripling’s playing career. He pitched poorly for San Francisco in 2023, and much like what happened the last time he struggled so badly, he was eventually shipped out of town. The Giants sent him to the A’s during the 2023-24 offseason, and he had a similarly rough season in Oakland. All told, he pitched to a 5.68 ERA in 44 games (25 starts) over his two years in the Bay Area. While his big league track record helped him land a minor league deal with the Royals this past winter, he was granted his release after failing to make their Opening Day roster.

Stripling finishes his MLB career with a 4.17 ERA in 846 1/3 innings of work. He collected 40 wins, 11 holds, and four saves, while racking up 741 strikeouts. MLBTR congratulates Stripling on a successful major league tenure and wishes him all the best in whatever comes next.

The Athletics’ Rebuild Was A Dud; They’re Winning Anyway

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From 2018-21, only four teams in Major League Baseball won more games than the A's. They'd navigated a lean stretch from 2015-17 that saw them rattle off three consecutive last-place finishes in the AL West and come out on the other side with a swiftly acquired/developed core. Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Sean Murphy were top-100 draft picks. Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas were key pieces in the returns received for Ben Zobrist, Jeff Samardzija and Josh Reddick/Rich Hill, respectively. Mark Canha was added via the Rule 5 Draft (technically in a trade with the Rockies). Ramon Laureano was acquired from the division-rival Astros for a song.

The staying power of that core, as is ever the case with the low-budget A's, was finite. In early September 2021 -- much to the chagrin of some A's fans; my apologies -- MLBTR looked ahead to the massive slate of arbitration salaries facing the then-Oakland club and wondered whether another broad-reaching teardown was nigh, given the escalating cost of that core.

That rebuild indeed came to pass. Over the next calendar year, each of Olson, Chapman, Manaea, Bassitt, Montas and Lou Trivino were traded for prospects. The following offseason, Murphy, A.J. Puk and Cole Irvin followed. Canha, just like Marcus Semien and Liam Hendriks a year prior, departed for no compensation. Sam Moll went at the 2023 trade deadline.

The plus side seemed to be a bevy of new prospects who could potentially accelerate the rebuild process and help get a contending group back on the field sooner than later. If you'd told A's fans on Opening Day 2022, after that miserable offseason rebuild, that the 2025 club would be an on-the-rise team with an exciting core of hitters, they'd likely have begrudgingly accepted that another rebuild paid dividends.

Except ... that's not really the case. It's true that the A's are winning in 2025 and look more exciting than they have in four years -- but they've reached this point not because of that rebuild but rather in spite of it. Let's take a look back at the rebuild, the missteps along the way, and the manner in which this nucleus came together despite a series of whiffs on the trade market.

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Athletics Recall Gunnar Hoglund For MLB Debut

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May 2: The Athletics have recalled Hoglund and optioned fellow righty Carlos Duran to Triple-A in his place, per a team announcement.

May 1: The A’s are set to promote pitching prospect Gunnar Hoglund for his major league debut, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’s already on the 40-man roster, so they’ll only need to open a spot on the active roster.

Hoglund, 25, was the 19th overall pick by the Blue Jays out of Ole Miss back in 2021. He landed with the Athletics as the headline prospect in the trade that sent Matt Chapman to Toronto. Hoglund’s path to the big leagues has been slowed by Tommy John surgery, but he pitched a full minor league season in 2024 and has been terrific through six Triple-A starts so far in 2025.

The elbow injury, plus some dip in velocity and diminished rate stats, prompted Hoglund’s stock to decline a bit in recent seasons. He still ranked 14th among A’s prospects at MLB.com heading into the season and 16th at Baseball America, but the general outlook had been that he profiled more as a back-of-the-rotation arm at this point.

That outlook has improved rapidly in 2025, however. After sitting 91.7 mph with his heater last year, Hoglund has seen his average fastball jump to 93.6 mph in 2025, per Statcast. His swinging-strike rate hasn’t made any substantial gains, but his overall strikeout rate is up from 22.7% last year to 26.1% this season. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote today that while Hoglund didn’t rank among his top-10 A’s prospects prior to the season, the early jump in his stuff has propelled him back to the No. 2 spot on his ranking of the A’s system, trailing only first baseman Nick Kurtz.

The improved stuff has led to improved results, at least in the earlygoing. Hoglund posted a 3.44 ERA, 22.7% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 39.1% grounder rate in 130 2/3 innings last year — with most of those innings coming in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting. Despite pitching in an extremely hitter-friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League this year — the same league in which he posted a 5.88 in five starts down the stretch in ’24 — Hoglund has delivered a 2.43 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44% ground-ball rate.

Adding a couple ticks to his fastball isn’t likely to put Hoglund on an ace trajectory, but there’s a notable gap between projecting as a mid-rotation arm and a more fungible fifth starter. With the arrow pointing up, the A’s will hope that he can now profile as more of the former. Beyond the velo jump, Hoglund has also begun to incorporate a sinker into his repertoire and has largely scrapped his slider in favor of more curveballs and changeups. He’s always had plus command, and the revamped and revitalized arsenal is reason for some optimism. McDaniel noted in his update on the A’s system that Hoglund now looks “the way he did at his best at Ole Miss.”

The A’s have effectively been working with four starters for the past couple weeks. Joey Estes has already been optioned to Triple-A after a pair of nightmarish starts to begin his season. Fellow righty J.T. Ginn hit the injured list with elbow inflammation a bit more than a week ago. Lefty Jacob Lopez got the nod in Tuesday’s game against the Rangers but was optioned to Triple-A after Texas tagged him for three runs in a 2 2/3-inning start during which he issued three walks.

Hoglund will step into the rotation alongside Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, JP Sears and Osvaldo Bido. Each of Severino, Sears and Bido has produced solid or better results. Springs had a decent start but has been torched for nine earned runs in his past 8 1/3 innings, ballooning his earned run average to 6.04.

On the whole, A’s starters rank 26th in the majors with a collective 4.66 ERA. Plugging Hoglund into the mix could be a nice boon. Getting a consistent fifth starter into the mix would ostensibly benefit the bullpen, which has the eighth-highest ERA in MLB (4.51), a reprieve as well.

In terms of service time, enough has elapsed in 2025 that Hoglund won’t accrue a full year even if he’s in the majors to stay. In that scenario, he’d finish the year with 151 days of service, putting him on track to be arbitration-eligible four times, rather than the standard three, as a Super Two player. The first of those trips through the arb process would come in the 2027-28 offseason, and he’d be under club control through 2031. Of course, being optioned to the minors at any point in the future could change either of those timelines, but the club’s hope will be that Hoglund’s minor league days are behind him. The A’s stockpiled a massive number of arms in their prior rebuild, but Sears is the only one who’s proven himself in the majors so far.

A’s Select Carlos Duran

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The A’s have selected the contract of righty Carlos Duran from Triple-A and optioned lefty Jacob Lopez, per a team announcement. Right-hander Jose Leclerc was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL in order to open space for Duran, who’ll be making his MLB debut the first time he takes the mound.

Duran, 23, was just acquired from the Dodgers in exchange for outfielder Esteury Ruiz earlier in the month. He’s pitched 16 innings between the Triple-A clubs for the Dodgers and A’s in 2025 and posted unsightly results, due largely to poor command. Currently, Duran holds a 6.75 ERA on the season. He’s fanned a respectable 24.3% of his opponents but also issued walks at an untenable 16.2% clip (in addition to three hit batters and a pair of wild pitches).

This year’s command troubles notwithstanding, Duran has a decent minor league track record. He pitched 53 1/3 innings across three minor league levels with the Dodgers in 2024 and notched a combined 3.71 ERA with a robust 29.4% strikeout rate. His location still wasn’t sharp, evidenced by a 12.9% walk rate, but it wasn’t quite as rough as it’s been so far in 2025. Duran is averaging better than 95 mph on his heater this season and pairing it with a slider that sits about 10 mph slower on the radar gun.

That slider, in particular, has drawn heaps of praise from scouts. Baseball America in 2023 called it a plus-plus offering that stood as perhaps the best individual pitch in the Dodgers’ entire minor league system. That’s high praise, but commanding that slider (and his fastball) have been an issue for Duran — as one might expect from a pitcher listed at 6’7″. Duran also has a notable injury under his belt, having missed the 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery (which may also have contributed to his poor command dating back to last year).

Leclerc’s move to the 60-day injured list shouldn’t come as a surprise. The A’s placed him on the 15-day IL due to a lat strain last week. The team noted at the time that Leclerc would be shut down entirely for an indefinite period. There’s still no firm timetable, but it’s been clear for the past seven days that the right-hander wasn’t going to be a candidate to return from the IL at any point in the near future.

The A’s signed Leclerc to a one-year, $10MM contract in the offseason. He’s had an ugly start to his 2025 campaign, yielding six runs on 13 hits and five walks in only nine innings. Leclerc has whiffed just eight of his 46 opponents — a 17.4% rate that’s miles shy of his career 30.8% mark — and has seen his average fastball drop by more than one mile per hour. It currently sits at a career-low 94.2 mph.

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