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Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The mandate for Cubs GM Jim Hendry this winter: turn a bloated fifth-place team into a contender for 2011 despite limited payroll flexibility.  The Cubs were in sell mode last summer, but Hendry switched back to a win-now approach this offseason.  Let's sift through the transactions.

Ramirez was awful for the first two months of 2010, driving his value so far down that he didn't dare test the free agent market.  If he can return to career levels in 2011, the Cubs might just be compelled to choose his $16MM club option for 2012 over a $2MM buyout.  Overall it's a positive to have him penciled in for another season, given the weak market for third basemen.

Pena replaces Derrek Lee at first base on a standard-issue Boras Corporation make-good contract.  If Pena finds his first National League season to his liking at age 33, perhaps he can ride a 35 home run season to a big free agent deal. 

Pena's one-year term opens up the possibility of the Cubs bidding on the big names next winter: Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez if his rumored extension isn't finalized for some reason.  A $140MM payroll would allow the Cubs to sign any of these sluggers, as they'd be under $110MM in 2012 commitments even with Ramirez and accounting for arbitration raises.  Still, I doubt the Cubs are thinking about next year's free agents whatsoever at this point.

Back to 2011: the Cubs were able to augment their bullpen on the cheap, with Wood's $1.5MM deal drawing comparisons to Andre Dawson's blank check offer.  Wood doesn't need to win an MVP award, though - he just needs to give the Cubs 50 solid innings and keep the walks down.  Wood will be setting up Carlos Marmol, whose odd statistical profile didn't prevent the Cubs from buying out his last two arbitration seasons and one free agent year for $20MM.  Marmol's 15.99 K/9 was the highest in baseball history among pitchers with 25 innings in a season, and it followed that he was stingy on hits and home runs.  But like Wood, Andrew Cashner, and John Grabow, he struggled with walks.  It's easy to dream on the back end of the Cubs' bullpen this year, but this seems to be an especially volatile bunch.

Garza

Hendry's big splash was the addition of Garza.  It wasn't clear Garza would be made available at the outset of the offseason, but the Rays seemingly held a covert bidding war and cashed the righty in for a big chunk of the Cubs' farm system.  Baseball America ranked the Cubs' system eighth in baseball prior to the deal, but the Rays now have the Chicago prospects formerly ranked #1, 4, 10, and 16.  In Archer, Guyer, and Chirinos, the Cubs surrendered prospects almost certain to play in the Majors soon.  The Cubs restored a touch of depth with the signings of Cuban players Silva and Cabezas as well as the Gorzelanny trade.

As you'd expect, the Cubs paid dearly for three years of Garza, who posted a sub-4.00 ERA over about 600 AL East innings over the last three seasons.  Garza has the stuff and reputation of a #2 starter, even if his strikeout rates in '08 and '10 don't quite match up.  It wasn't surprising to see the Cubs move Gorzelanny, though even with the lefty's inconsistency he might have been nice to have around with Carloses Zambrano and Silva not considered reliable.

The team's minor league signings focused on players who had already been in the organization.  They also coaxed Looper out of semi-retirement, and the Cubs are probably hoping he or Casey Coleman is Gorzelanny's equal as a sixth starter.  In the Cubs' perfect world, Andrew Cashner would beat out the less exciting rotation candidates, pushing Silva or Randy Wells to the pen.

Despite a rookie-filled second half last year, the Cubs are going for it in '11 with Mike Quade at the helm for his first full season.  Hendry chose to pay the price in prospects as opposed to cash, after watching the Brewers do the same on a more exaggerated level.  The Cubs enter 2011 as an expensive underdog in the NL Central, but with enough young talent and wild cards to make things interesting.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Pirates ramped up their free agent spending this offseason, adding three significant big league contracts and plenty of interesting players on minor league deals for new manager Clint Hurdle.  GM Neal Huntington also cut ties with a trio of disappointing arbitration eligible players in Duke, Milledge, and LaRoche.

CorreiaThough the signing did not generate national headlines, the Correia deal was significant for the Pirates franchise.  It had been 12 years since the Bucs signed a domestic free agent pitcher to a multiyear deal.  Why take this leap for 2011?  Correia is a sleeper, a relatively young righty who can get groundballs and hopefully supply 200 innings.  If he can regain his '09 form, he'll step in as the staff leader as Paul Maholm's Pirates tenure winds down.

The Pirates' 2011 rotation could feature Correia, Olsen, and James McDonald, all recent additions.  Duke is gone, and while Maholm is penciled in he's probably trade bait.  Huntington took over as Pirates GM in September of 2007, and for all his machinations over the last three-plus years he hasn't brought in any decent Major League starting pitching aside from Ross Ohlendorf.  Plus, the Pirates overestimated what they had by giving multiyear deals to Maholm and Ian Snell.  The next two waves of starting pitching must transform the Pirates, with McDonald, Bryan Morris, Rudy Owens, and Jeff Locke in the near-term and Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie, and Luis Heredia further down the road.

The Pirates had to overpay a bit to secure Overbay and Diaz, though both veterans have limited upside.  In the best case Overbay hits like he did over the season's final four months (.261/.351/.458) and a Diaz/Garrett Jones right field platoon plays to each player's strength.  I can't envision either Overbay or Diaz being flipped for anything significant, so these might be respectability signings.  Those types of acquisitions haven't worked out well for the Pirates, with Akinori Iwamura and Ramon Vazquez coming to mind.

I'm more intrigued by the Pirates' minor deals.  Beimel and Veras should augment the bullpen at minimal commitments, while Marte, Fields, and Atkins were all highly-regarded third basemen in years past.  The Pirates didn't have success trying to upgrade over Ronny Cedeno at shortstop, though they reportedly checked in on J.J. Hardy, Jason Bartlett, and Brendan Ryan.  Rule 5 pick Rodriguez should have a big league future, whether at shortstop or second base.  Anything Valdez provides is a plus, since the Bucs were set to non-tender Duke anyway.

The Pirates have yet to top 67 wins in a season during Huntington's tenure, and have an active streak of 18 consecutive losing seasons.  Milledge and LaRoche were supposed to become solid regulars, but both have already been cut loose.  Formerly extended players Ryan Doumit and Paul Maholm are nearing the end of their Pirates careers as well.  Pirates fans are probably in for two or three more years of stopgap veterans, though position player talent is on the rise with Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, and Neil Walker.  If Huntington is to last to see Taillon's big league debut, he'll need the aforementioned second wave of starting pitching to break through to some extent in 2011.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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Kicking off our Offseason In Review series, the Twins.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

This winter Twins GM Bill Smith signed Pavano and Thome again, albeit at larger commitments given their fine 2010 campaigns.  He cut ties with Hardy after one season, gambling on the international market with Nishioka rather than dealing with the weak domestic middle infield market.  The Twins also saw a large chunk of their 2010 bullpen sign elsewhere and chose not to sign replacements.

3961008240385_Twins_at_Rangers

By re-signing Pavano, the Twins maintained the starting pitching depth that allowed them to place fifth in the AL in rotation ERA in 2010.  Pavano has begun to shake the reputation he acquired during his Yankees stint.  Including the playoffs he's racked up 433 1/3 innings over 2009-10, so he's been a horse.  Still, Smith did well in waiting him out and limiting the term to two years.  Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly and Jorge de la Rosa were the only free agent starters to sign for three-plus years this offseason.  Pavano and Scott Baker are solid sidekicks to ace Francisco Liriano, who I do not believe the Twins are open to trading.       

At $3MM, the money committed to Thome remains reasonable.  He's primed to hit his 600th home run in a Twins uniform after turning down more than $4MM from the Rangers.  Once again Smith's patience paid off and he was able to negotiate a slight Minnesota discount.  On the other hand, a net price of $4.9MM for Kubel is fairly steep if he ends up spending most of his time as a platoon DH.  Hideki Matsui and Jack Cust are coming off better offensive seasons and signed for less.

The Hudson-Hardy middle infield combination is gone after one season, with the Twins importing Nishioka from Japan to play second or shortstop and going with Alexi Casilla for the other position.  Spending $14.3MM on a player with no MLB experience is a gamble, but it would have cost just under $6MM to retain Hardy.  Rather than simply non-tendering Hardy after another disappointing season, the Twins paired him with Harris and cleared $1.25MM in salary they otherwise would have been burdened with.  That the return was Hoey and Jacobson suggests the Hardy trade was more of a salary dump than anything else.

As MLBTR's Mike Axisa outlined a month ago, the Twins' bullpen took a big hit with the losses of Crain, Guerrier, Fuentes, Rauch, and Mahay.  In hindsight, the risk of offering arbitration to Type A free agent Guerrier and Type B free agent Rauch might have been worthwhile.  But more importantly, the Twins were wise not to commit multiyear contracts to their departing relievers.  They've got Joe Nathan coming back and another year of Matt Capps, and can piece together the rest of the pen without adding more veterans to an already tapped-out payroll.  The bullpen depth doesn't look good on paper, but Smith can always make midseason additions if no one emerges.

Like most teams, the Twins have concerns heading into Spring Training.  The bullpen must be sorted out.  A slew of key players are coming off "cleanup" type surgeries, and Justin Morneau is still recovering from last year's concussion.  Middle infield roles must be determined for Nishioka and Casilla.  And third baseman Danny Valencia must avoid a sophomore slump.  But these were not issues the Twins could have solved by opening the free agent checkbook in tandem with the division rival Tigers and White Sox.  Smith's trademark patience resulted in significant savings this winter, perhaps leaving some midseason flexibility for trades.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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Last but not least, the Giants conclude our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

  • Claimed Rule 5 P Steven Johnson from Orioles; returned 3/16/10
  • Acquired cash considerations from Blue Jays for P Merkin Valdez
  • Acquired a player to be named later or cash from Red Sox for IF Kevin Frandsen

Notable Losses

Summary

Giants GM Brian Sabean signed five position players to free agent contracts and extended four of his own pitchers.  Let's evaluate.

Sabean spent $34.75MM to secure DeRosa, Sanchez, Molina, Uribe, and Huff.  These five players combined for an offensive line of .266/.313/.431 in 2009.  Sabean has crafted a lineup with only one dangerous hitter in Pablo Sandoval; CHONE projections indicate that the Giants will again have one of the four worst offenses in the league.  The Uribe signing was defensible.  Molina wasn't terribly overpriced, though a combination of Buster Posey and a cheaper veteran would've offered more upside.  DeRosa, Sanchez, and Huff will need to stay healthy and exceed their '09 production to justify the signings.

Pitching should again be a strong suit.  Wellemeyer and Mota were decent minor league pickups.  Sabean did well to secure Lincecum through 2011 and avoid an arbitration hearing.  The Cain extension saved the Giants a little money in the short term, guaranteed his 2011 salary, and bought out one free agent year, potentially a win for both sides.  Sabean exchanged risk for cost certainty on Wilson, and can retain Affeldt for an extra year or two.  All four extensions made sense, and the Giants have a clearer picture of their payroll for the next few years. 

As much as I like the Giants' pitching, I don't think it will be enough to carry them past the Rockies and Dodgers to the playoffs.  The Giants haven't scored 700 runs in a season since Barry Bonds, Ray Durham, and Moises Alou led the way in '06.  Sabean's offseason tinkering doesn't convince me they'll reach that modest level in 2010.

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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The Padres are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

  • Jon Garland, SP: one year, $5.3MM.  Includes $6.75MM mutual option for 2011 with a $300-600K buyout.
  • Jerry Hairston Jr., IF/OF: one year, $2.125MM.
  • Yorvit Torrealba, C: one year, $1.25MM.  Includes $3.5MM mutual option for 2011 with a $500K buyout.
  • Total spend: $8.675MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

Jed Hoyer's tenure as Padres GM kicked off quietly, with a November 25th waiver claim of pitcher Radhames Liz.  Hoyer went on to spend $8.675MM for three free agents and make one big trade.  Let's take a look.

Hoyer added free agents Garland, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Torrealba on reasonably-priced one-year deals.  The affordable trio should have a small amount of trade value, in contrast to overpaid veterans like Jason Marquis, Ivan Rodriguez, and Kevin Millwood.  We've seen varying approaches by rebuilding clubs this winter – the Nationals and Orioles spent about $30MM, the Padres, Blue Jays, and Pirates spent $8-10MM, and the Indians spent less than $3MM.

The Scott Hairston acquisition was a lateral move, as the Padres and A's were looking to fill different needs.  Kouzmanoff has one more year of team control than Hairston, a possible point in Oakland's favor assuming these players aren't eventually non-tendered.   It's difficult to predict the outcome of the Sogard-Cunningham portion of the deal.

Hoyer has the Adrian Gonzalez situation on the horizon, but in the short-term he's likely to see how the team performs for the season's first three months.  The Padres project to have a terrible offense, possibly the worst in the NL.  Their pitching may be better than you realize, with a slew of guys capable of ERAs in the low 4.00s and Mat Latos bringing #1 starter stuff.  To contend in 2010, the Padres would need breakout years from Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks and quality bats added to the offense in midseason trades.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Dodgers.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

GM Ned Colletti chose to let key free agents Wolf, Garland, and Hudson leave, replacing them with cheaper options.  Let's take a look at the team's biggest moves.

Wolf earned $8MM in 2009 and pitched like an ace for the Dodgers.  He'd signed one-year deals three years in a row and was a near-lock to turn down an arbitration offer from the Dodgers.  Colletti reportedly feared a $15MM reward for Wolf, but said, "Our decision was made strictly from a baseball perspective."  The misstep cost the Dodgers a pair of draft picks.  Hudson was also a Type A free agent, but the choice not to offer him arbitration was defensible.  The Dodgers have more than enough options to replace him.

So, Colletti missed out on the #36 and #65 picks in the 2010 draft.  The Dodgers will survive.  Colletti's first big move of the offseason was to shave $3MM off the '10 payroll and $5MM off for '11 by unloading Pierre on the White Sox.  Colletti went on to allocate $11.5MM to free agents, most of which will be paid in '10.

With a million bucks in innings incentives dangling, I think Padilla will have a decent year.  Brett Myers and Jon Garland, who signed for similar dollars, don't seem any better or worse.  Carroll's two-year deal was unnecessary.  The 36-year-old is a useful player, but if you're pinching pennies there are better ways to spend $3.85MM.  Saving the money for midseason acquisitions would've been a better move.

Colletti deserves praise for adding 2011 cost certainty with the Ethier, Broxton, and Kemp deals.  He chose the right players and didn't overpay.

The Dodgers' offense appears respectable, with no clear area for upgrade.  Getting sufficient innings out of the Billingsley-Kershaw-Padilla-Kuroda front four is a concern, though few teams are satisfied with their rotation depth.  Colletti may need to make a deal this summer.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims: None

Extensions

  • Huston Street, RP: three years, $22.5MM.  Includes $9MM player option for 2013 with a $500K buyout.
  • Todd Helton, 1B: two years, $9.9MM.  Rockies also saved money via deferrals and new 2011 salary.
  • Chris Iannetta, C: three years, $8.35MM.  Includes $5MM club option for 2013 with a $250K buyout.
  • Ryan Spilborghs, OF: two years, $3.2MM.

Notable Losses

Summary

Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd focused most of his offseason efforts on the bullpen and bench, with the lineup and rotation already in good shape.  He also locked up four of his own players.  Let's take a closer look.

Betancourt was the main offseason splash.  The Rockies acquired him from the Indians in July and enjoyed 25.3 dominant innings.  That was enough to convince O'Dowd to take the plunge with an arbitration offer to the Type A free agent, though he declined Betancourt's $5.4MM club option first.  Betancourt played it safe and accepted the offer, and the Rockies worked out a two-year agreement a couple months later.  Betancourt turns 35 soon and has been dealing with shoulder inflammation, so this was a risky signing.

The risk of the Betancourt signing was balanced out by a slew of minor league deals to once-effective relievers.  It's likely that a few of these work out, and the Rockies end up with a pretty good pen.

Tacking two, possibly three extra years on to Street's deal was unnecessary.  Street dealt with biceps inflammation in September and now faces shoulder issues.  A one-year deal in the $8MM range made more sense.  As dominant as Street was in 2009, closers aren't getting paid like this anymore.

The Rockies want Helton to retire a Rockie, but did they need to commit to 2012 and 2013 now?  A reworking of Helton's previous monstrous contract provides short-term financial relief, a necessity after O'Dowd committed $11MM to Street and Betancourt for 2011.  The Iannetta extension was a clear bargain, though it was surprising to see the Rockies pick up Olivo a few weeks later for a 2010 job-sharing arrangement.

Offensive changes were unnecessary, as the Rockies' offense stacks up with any team in the NL.  They might have the game's best fourth and fifth outfielders in Seth Smith and Spilborghs, and the bench was further solidified with Giambi and Mora.

It will be difficult for Jeff Francis to replicate Marquis' 216 innings of 4.04 ball, though letting the latter go and taking a draft pick was the right move.  Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, Jorge de la Rosa, and Jason Hammel form an underrated front four.

Though O'Dowd overindulged on extensions, the 2010 Rockies have few weaknesses and should be in the thick of the playoff hunt once again.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Diamondbacks.

Major League Signings

  • Brandon Webb, SP: one year, $8.5MM.  Club option exercised.
  • Adam LaRoche, 1B: one year, $6MM.  Includes $7.5MM mutual option for 2011 with a $1.5MM buyout.
  • Kelly Johnson, 2B: one year, $2.35MM.  Arbitration-eligible for 2011.
  • Bob Howry, RP: one year, $2.25MM.  Includes $3MM club option with a $250K buyout.
  • Total spend: $19.1MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

This offseason Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes revamped his rotation and the right side of his infield, acquired a pair of veteran relievers, and added cost certainty with three extensions.  Let's take a closer look.

You already know how I feel about the LaRoche and Johnson signings – they were two of my ten best free agent signings of the offseason.  LaRoche is a clear upgrade over the players the D'Backs used at first base in '09, though Johnson's ceiling is the .298/.372/.448 second base line Arizona got from Felipe Lopez, Ryan Roberts, and Augie Ojeda.  The team has good depth at second base, with Roberts and Ojeda still around and Tony Abreu in the mix.

Webb had August shoulder surgery and may miss all of April.  Still, I feel that choosing the $8MM net price was the right move at the time and Webb will still provide 175 above-average innings.  I'm not enthused by the Howry and Heilman additions; they may combine for a good number of devastating home runs allowed.

The D'Backs have a new-look rotation for 2010.  Davis, Scherzer, Petit, and Jon Garland are gone after providing two-thirds of the team's starts in '09.  The move from Scherzer to Jackson may actually be a more expensive downgrade.  I like the Kennedy pickup, but maybe Byrnes would've been better-served trying to pull off a trade without the Scherzer-Jackson component.  On the other hand, the D'Backs know Scherzer better than anyone.

Byrnes' arbitration buyout extensions have been a mixed bag so far, with Webb and Dan Haren on the positive side and Chad Tracy, Chris Young, and Chris Snyder on the negative.  This winter, the Upton signing was a huge win, while the Reynolds extension didn't appear to bring significant cost savings.

The D'Backs did a solid job in free agency, and have crafted a lineup with few easy outs.  Webb is the key to the season, as they'll open with Kennedy as the #3 starter.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Cardinals.

Major League Signings

  • Matt Holliday, LF: seven years, $120MM.  Includes $17MM club option for 2017 with a $1MM buyout.  Includes deferred money. 
  • Brad Penny, SP: one year, $7.5MM.
  • Felipe Lopez, IF: one year, $1MM.
  • Jason LaRue, C: one year, $950K.
  • Total spend: $129.45MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

  • Claimed Rule 5 P Ben Jukich off waivers from Reds; returned on 3/18/10

Notable Losses

Summary

The Cardinals' offseason was mostly about re-signing Holliday, which finally occurred on January 5th.  GM John Mozeliak also overpaid Penny by a few million, but made up for it by getting Lopez at a bargain price.

Summing up the concerns about the Holliday signing: the Cardinals significantly overpaid given the lack of competition, it may be difficult to pay Holliday and Albert Pujols a combined $40MM+ starting in 2012, and the last few years of the contract will not provide good value.  ESPN's Jayson Stark says Holliday's only other offers were one-year deals in the $18MM range.  The Cardinals-Holliday contract was panned by most executives to whom Buster Olney spoke.

Prior to the Holliday signing, Mozeliak guaranteed a surprising $7.5MM to Penny.  Penny offers upside under Dave Duncan's tutelage, though replacing Joel Pineiro's 214 innings of 3.49 ball will be nearly impossible.  Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cards never made Pineiro an offer, because the pitcher wanted multiple years and the team already has three such rotation commitments.

The Lopez signing was easily one of the best of the offseason.  The Cardinals waited him out until late February and guaranteed less than many utility players and half-season pitchers received.

The Holliday contract is questionable, but he certainly makes the Cardinals much better in the near future.  Their offense projects as one of the best in the NL, and the worst projected ERA among their front four starters is Kyle Lohse's 4.18.  The Cardinals are easily the NL Central favorite in 2010.

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