MLB Trade Rumors

The Astros “checked in” with the Cubs about two of the team’s biggest trade chips, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Houston inquired about right-hander Marcus Stroman and outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger.  Either player would essentially be a rental pickup for the Astros, as Stroman and Bellinger are each widely expected to become free agents this winter — Stroman via an opt-out in his contract, and Bellinger in declining his end of a mutual option.

The Cubs are 43-49 after today’s loss to the Red Sox, and are facing an increasingly uphill battle in both the NL Central (though Chicago is the only NLC team with a positive run differential) and NL wild card races.  Unless the Northsiders go on a real hot streak over the next two weeks, it looks like the Cubs again be looking to sell some veteran players at the August 1 trade deadline.

Houston GM Dana Brown has cited both starting pitching and a left-handed hitter as his team’s two primary target areas heading into the deadline, and landing Stroman and Bellinger in one mega-deal would check both boxes at once, if such a blockbuster trade could be negotiated.  Of course, it isn’t known at this point whether or not the Astros’ inquiries were anything more than due diligence, and it may be yet some time before the Cubs determine whether or not to pivot into seller mode.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said yesterday that “there is nothing we want more than to add,” so if the Cubs are even still on the fringes of the playoff race, they might still opt to keep their roster mostly intact.

From a financial perspective, the Astros’ luxury tax number is approximately $218.2MM, as per Roster Resource.  This is well under the first $233MM tax threshold, giving Houston some room to add salary — such as the roughly $10.43MM still owed to Stroman and the $5.21MM owed to Bellinger, plus the $5MM buyout of his mutual option — while avoiding a tax bill entirely.  Houston were taxpayers in 2020, however, and it isn’t out of the question that they could absorb another one-year tax hit in the first penalty tier in pursuit of another World Series title.  Of course, Chicago isn’t entirely in salary-dump mode since the organization clearly wants to compete as early as 2024, so the Astros could make a deal for either player more likely by offering more of a prospect return than a financial return.  In that scenario, the question might be how much minor league depth would the Astros want to surrender for a rental player.

Starting with Bellinger, he would add some balance to a heavily right-handed Astros lineup, and strengthen an outfield that is missing both Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley.  Alvarez is at least making some progress in his way back from an oblique injury, while Brantley’s status is still up in the air as he has experienced several setbacks in his recovery from shoulder surgery almost a year ago.  If Bellinger stepped into the regular center field role, Chas McCormick could spell Bellinger against southpaw pitching, and the McCormick/Corey Julks/Jake Meyers group would rotate through left field duty, with Alvarez getting most of the DH time when he returns.

Bellinger is hitting .301/.358/.524 with 12 homers and 11 steals (from 14 chances) over 257 plate appearances.  He missed about a month with a knee contusion that limited him to first base in his return to the field, but Bellinger has resumed his regular duty in center field and also regained his hitting stroke.  Bellinger had a scorching 1.209 OPS over his last 69 PA heading into today’s game.

Stroman has been outstanding all season, posting a 2.88 ERA over 118 2/3 innings.  Despite below-average strikeout and walk totals, Stroman has done an excellent job of limiting damage (an elite 3.6% barrel rate) and keeping the ball on the ground (58.4% grounder rate).  A .251 BABIP has certainly contributed to Stroman’s success, but his knack at avoiding home run damage would likely translate well to any number of contending teams with decent infield defense.

As such, many teams will surely be calling the Cubs about Stroman’s availability, and another intriguing landing spot besides the Astros has already emerged.  The Score 670’s Bruce Levine reports that the Blue Jays (Stroman’s former team) “have expressed strong interest” in the righty’s services, which would count as a bit of a surprise considering the hard feelings that reportedly existed between Stroman and the Jays before he was dealt to the Mets in 2019.  However, Stroman expressed nothing but positivity about his old club when the Cubs visited Toronto last year, and assuming the Jays front office feels the same, a Stroman return would certainly bolster the rotation.

An inconsistent offense has perhaps been the Blue Jays’ bigger problem in 2023, as a rotation that was seen as a potential weak link has been more or less solid, due to Jose Berrios’ resurgence and Yusei Kikuchi’s ability to at least stick as a fifth starter.  However, Alek Manoah’s inexplicable first-half collapse makes him an x-factor going forward, even if Manoah looked sharp in his first start back after a month-long retooling process.  Hyun-Jin Ryu (Tommy John surgery) is also expected back within the next few weeks, so technically, Toronto could have six viable starters and perhaps less of a pressing need to devote trade resources on a major arm like Stroman.

The Astros have a much clearer need for pitching, considering how injuries have drastically thinned the rotation.  Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are both gone for the season, and Jose Urquidy is just starting a rehab assignment after missing two and a half months with a shoulder injury.  Framber Valdez has already been dealing with a sore ankle and left yesterday’s start with a calf problem manager Dusty Baker hoped was only a cramp.  If this wasn’t enough, Cristian Javier has been badly struggling over his last few starts, leaving swingman Brandon Bielak and rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France as the Astros’ most viable starters.

It simply isn’t a rotation that looks like it can contend for another championship, and even making the playoffs might be difficult for Houston given the Rangers’ lead in the AL West and the crowded nature of the wild card race.  Adding a starter in some form certainly seems like a must for the Astros, and it will be interesting to see how aggressive Brown will be in bolstering the rotation in his first trade deadline as a Major League general manager.