Josh Harrison Opts Out Of Minors Deal With Reds
Utility player Josh Harrison has opted of his minor league deal with the Reds, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. He signed with the club last month on a deal that allowed him to opt out if not on the roster by March 21. He was informed that he would not be making the team and will be returning to free agency.
The path for Harrison to make the club was not smooth, as the Reds are loaded with talented young position players. That depth has taken some recent hits, as infielder Noelvi Marté was hit with an 80-game PED suspension while outfielder TJ Friedl is set to miss significant time due to a wrist fracture.
But even with those issues, the club still has plenty of options for filling out its lineup and roster. Jeimer Candelario, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand can handle the infield duties most of the time, with Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley and Will Benson in the outfield and Tyler Stephenson behind the plate. Jonathan India can have a regular role, serving as the designated hitter or rotating through various defensive positions. Luke Maile and Stuart Fairchild figure to have two bench spots accounted for while the club also has Bubba Thompson, Nick Martini, Rece Hinds and Jacob Hurtubise on the roster. Non-roster invitees such as Tony Kemp, Mike Ford, Mark Mathias and Erik González are around if the club wants to add someone into to its roster.
Harrison would have been in that latter group but hasn’t been in good form recently. He hit just .204/.263/.291 for the Phillies last year and got released in August. He then signed a minor league deal with the Rangers, hitting .222/.323/.370 in six games before opting out of that pact. In eight spring games with the Reds this year, he’s hit .250/.250/.350.
But he’s not too far removed from being a solid utility option in the big leagues. He played 290 games from 2020 to 2022, hitting .270/.332/.390 in that time for a wRC+ of 102. His 5.4% walk rate wasn’t strong but he limited strikeouts to a 14.7% clip. He also bounced around the diamond, playing every position except catcher.
He’ll now look for another opportunity on the open market, with that versatility perhaps helping him find his next gig. He’s not much more than an emergency option at first base, shortstop or center field, having played just one inning in his career at first, just three innings in the past two years at short and 10 innings overall in center. But he has plenty of experience at second base, third base and the outfield corners. There will likely be plenty of roster shuffling in the next week or two as clubs around the league finalize their camp cuts and other veterans trigger opt-outs.
Jhoan Duran, Caleb Thielbar, Anthony DeSclafani To Begin Season On Injured List
1:39pm: There’s concern that DeSclafani could require season-ending surgery, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Nightengale and others.
1:00pm: Twins closer Jhoan Duran, lefty reliever Caleb Thielbar, and rotation hopeful Anthony DeSclafani will open the season on the 15-day injured list, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Duran is dealing with a “moderate” oblique strain, while Thielbar will head to the IL with a strained hamstring. DeSclafani has a more ominous forearm strain and is slated to meet with Dr. Keith Meister for further evaluation.
Beyond that trio of surefire big leaguers, the Twins will also see prospect Matt Canterino and roster hopeful Zack Weiss start on the injured list, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Canterino, long one of the organization’s most promising arms, will be on the Triple-A injured list after suffering a subscapular strain in his shoulder. Weiss, a waiver claim out of the Red Sox organization, has been rehabbing a teres major strain and will be on the major league injured list.
Losing Duran even for a short spell is painful for the Twins, given the flamethrower’s emergence as one of MLB’s premier relievers. Since making his big league debut on Opening Day 2022, Duran has pitched 130 innings of 2.15 ERA ball with 35 saves, 19 holds, a 33.2% strikeout rate, a 7.9% walk rate and a massive 63.4% ground-ball rate. He averaged a ludicrous 101.8 mph on his heater last season and 98.4 mph with his splitter/sinker hybrid (“splinker”). The good news for the Twins is that a moderate strain shouldn’t result in excessively lengthy absence, but even Grade 1 strains have been known to sideline players for upwards of a month. The team hasn’t formally announced a timetable for Duran’s expected return just yet.
Wit Duran sidelined, it’ll likely fall to Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart to handle save situations early in the season. Jax has become one of Duran’s top setup men in recent years and offers an above-average strikeout rate and strong command of a slider-heavy arsenal. Stewart returned from a yearslong MLB absence and multiple arm surgeries brandishing an upper-90s cutter that helped him punch out nearly 36% of his opponents while pitching to a 0.65 ERA in 27 2/3 innings for the Twins last saeson.
The 37-year-old Thielbar has flown under the radar since returning to affiliated ball following a five-year absence in 2020, but he’s quietly been one of the team’s most important relievers in that time. Over the past four seasons, the Minnesota native has given his hometown club 174 innings of 3.21 ERA ball, piling up 45 holds while punching out 30.2% of his opponents against a 7.4% walk rate. He struggled against right-handers last season, yielding a .258/.319/.621 batting line, but Thielbar didn’t have glaring struggles against righties from 2020-22. As with Duran, they’ll hope for a relatively brief absence, but the team hasn’t given any specifics on how long he’s expected to miss just yet.
Word of DeSclafani’s injury is the most concerning of the three. Acquired from the Mariners (who’d picked him up from the Giants previously) as part of the trade sending Jorge Polanco to Seattle, DeSclafani had been in the running to open the season as the Twins’ fifth starter. He was slowed early in camp by some discomfort and is now headed for evaluation with one of the sport’s more notable surgeons.
DeSclafani has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. He missed the entire 2017 season with a UCL sprain that never required surgery, pitched a mostly healthy year in 2018 and enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career with the Reds in 2019. A teres major strain hobbled him in 2020 and limited him to 33 2/3 innings of 7.22 ERA ball, however. DeSclafani bounced back with a bit 2021 season in San Francisco, working 167 2/3 frames of 3.17 ERA ball over a mostly full slate of 31 starts.
DeSclafani re-signed in San Francisco on a three-year, $36MM deal that hasn’t at all gone according to plan. An ankle injury that eventually required surgery limited him to 19 frames in 2022. Shoulder fatigue and a pair of flexor strains capped him at 99 2/3 frames in 2023. He’ll now be slowed to begin the 2024 season, though a timeline won’t be known until that appointment with Dr. Meister has taken place.
The Twins are only the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s $12MM salary. The Giants sent $6MM to the Mariners in their original trade involving DeSclafani, and the M’s sent that plus another $2MM to Minnesota in the Polanco swap. With DeSclafani headed to the injured list, right-hander Louie Varland should have the fifth spot in the rotation all but locked up. He’ll follow Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober in what should be a solid Twins staff if everyone can remain healthy. However, the Twins will undoubtedly feel the losses of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, particularly now with their top depth option shelved. In the event of additional pitching injuries, Minnesota would likely turn to one of Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick or yet-to-debut top prospect David Festa.
As for the others, Canterino is still working his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Injuries have regularly slowed him since being selected in the second round of the 2019 draft. Between shaky health and the scrapped 2020 minor league season, he’s still pitched only 85 professional innings. They’ve been excellent — 1.48 ERA, 39.2% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate — but his persistent injury troubles have undercut his considerable upside. As for Weiss, he’s pitched just 27 1/3 MLB frames but has a history of strong strikeout totals in the minors. He could be a bullpen option for the Twins at some point, but for now he’ll collect MLB service and pay while rehabbing. For a 32-year-old with just 91 days of big league service to this point in his career, that’s not insignificant.
It seems unlikely that the Twins will go outside the organization to boost their depth — at least in term of significant salary additions. Owner Joe Pohlad all but declared his team out on top names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery earlier in camp when stating that his team was not going to “go out and spend $30MM on a player right now.” The Twins shocked baseball with a pair of Carlos Correa signings that came together under similar circumstances, but it doesn’t seem there’s another splash of that magnitude up their sleeves. Minnesota was reportedly interested in Michael Lorenzen earlier in the offseason, so it’s possible they could still circle back on that front. More likely is that they’ll just ride things out with internal options, perhaps adding a veteran on a minor league deal. A particularly lengthy absence for DeSclafani could create some extra urgency, so the results of his evaluation are worth tracking with a close eye for Twins fans.
Guardians Reassign Kyle Manzardo To Minor League Camp
The Guardians have reassigned top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to minor league camp, tweets Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Cleveland also reassigned catcher Bryan Lavastida and outfielder Petey Halpin. Manzardo is not yet on the 40-man roster — hence being “reassigned” rather than optioned — so this move won’t burn a minor league option year.
The 23-year-old Manzardo is the top prospect acquired from the Rays in last summer’s Aaron Civale trade. He’d been a candidate to make the roster heading into camp, presumably splitting time between first base and designated hitter with Josh Naylor. Today’s move ensures that he’ll instead start the season in Triple-A Columbus.
Manzardo has had a strong showing this spring, hitting .381/.458/.476 in 29 plate appearances. It’s a small sample, of course, as with all spring stats — but Manzardo’s seven strikeouts (29.2%) were uncharacteristic for a player who carries a career 17.5% strikeout rate against a robust 13.7% walk rate. At least in the early portion of the season, he’ll continue to get some work in Triple-A, where he slashed .237/.337/.464 with 17 home runs and 27 doubles in 2023.
The decision to ship Manzardo to minor league camp further opens the door for Rule 5 pick Deyvison De Los Santos to make the team’s Opening Day roster. He’s hit just .257/.257/.371 in camp and has yet to play above the Double-A level, but the Guards plucked him from the Diamondbacks organization after De Los Santos batted .254/.297/.431 and popped 20 homers in 481 Double-A plate appearances last season.
De Los Santos and out-of-options outfielder Estevan Florial — hitting just .167/.231/.194 with a 41% strikeout rate in 39 plate appearances — seem increasingly likely to make the cut. Outfielder Will Brennan and utilityman Tyler Freeman are among the other frontrunners for roster spots. Top outfield prospect Chase DeLauter is still in big league camp and has raked at a .474/.546/.842 pace in 22 plate appearances (9-for-19 with a double and two homers), but he’s played just six games above A-ball.
Barring any subsequent additions, the Guardians will rotate that group through designated hitter early in the year. They can also use the DH spot to get some rest for other regulars, as Florial can play all three outfield spots and Freeman can bounce around the infield. It’s a lackluster group of bats on the whole, however. Cleveland declined to do much of anything to upgrade a lineup that finished 27th in runs scored (662), 23rd in on-base percentage (.313), 29th in slugging percentage (.381) and dead last in the majors with 124 home runs. (The Nationals, at 151, ranked 29th.)
Florial, De Los Santos and the re-signed Austin Hedges — who split the 2023 season between Pittsburgh and Texas — are the only newcomers who’ll reshape that lineup. The Guards will hope that a full year of catcher Bo Naylor, a rebound from Andres Gimenez and the eventual promotions of Manzardo, DeLauter and outfielder George Valera will add some life to what was a largely punchless group in 2023.
Mariners Grant Cole Tucker His Release
The Mariners have granted infielder/outfielder Cole Tucker his release, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Tucker had been in camp on a non-roster deal but will back to the free agent market in search of another opportunity.
Tucker, 27, inked a minor league pact back in late January. He’s received just 14 plate appearances this spring and gone 2-for-10 with a pair of singles and four walks. He’d been vying for a bench spot, but the M’s already have a platoon of Josh Rojas and Luis Urias at third base (meaning one will be on the bench most days), plus fellow infielder/outfielder Dylan Moore locked into one bench spot. Outfielder Dominic Canzone‘s big spring could push him onto the Opening Day roster as well, which would mean the final roster spot would go to the out-of-options Luke Raley, who’s sure to make the team despite struggling through 30 plate appearances in camp.
The No. 24 overall pick by the Pirates back in 2014, Tucker hasn’t lived up to his former top prospect status through a series of mostly limited looks in the majors. Though he’s appeared in parts of five big league seasons, he’s never topped 159 plate appearances in any of those years. He’s a career .216/.266/.318 batter in 459 trips to the plate at the MLB level. He carries a more palatable .250/.350/.382 line in just over 1100 Triple-A plate appearances, and he’s walked in a robust 13% of those plate appearances against a manageable 22.1% strikeout rate.
After working exclusively as a shortstop earlier in his career, Tucker has since logged time across all three outfield spots, at second base and at both infield corners. The switch-hitter is capable of playing just about any spot on the diamond and could latch on elsewhere as a depth piece for another team. Tucker is out of minor league options, so while he’s likely to sign a minor league pact wherever he lands next, he’d need to be kept on the 40-man roster once selected or else exposed to waivers before he could be sent back to Triple-A.
Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!
On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.
Regular season baseball will arrive this week and all teams will have started their season by the end of next week but the offseason business is not yet completed with plenty of notable free agents still unsigned. If you have a question about a recent transaction, a future transaction or anything else related to the offseason or upcoming season, we’d love to hear from you! You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.
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Dodgers Name Gavin Stone Fifth Starter
Dodgers right-hander Gavin Stone told members of the media, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, that manager Dave Roberts informed him he will break camp as the club’s fifth starter.
The rotation for the Dodgers has a lot of moving parts due to health and will likely be in flux throughout the year, but they entered Spring Training with four spots accounted for. Tyler Glasnow is a lock since he has been a borderline ace on a rate basis in recent years, though without the health to provide that production in a quantitative sense. But the Dodgers clearly believe in him, as they acquired him in a notable offseason trade and then quickly signed him to an extension that runs through 2028. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has yet to make his major league debut but parlayed his dominance in Japan into a 12-year, $325MM contract.
Bobby Miller has earned a spot after a solid showing last year, wherein he tossed 124 1/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA and solid peripherals to match. James Paxton will be there as well after he signed a one-year, $7MM pact in the offseason with incentives.
Walker Buehler could have been in line for the fifth spot but it seems he and the Dodgers have decided to slow play his season a bit. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022 and almost returned late in 2023 but ended up not rushing and therefore sitting out the entire season. That puts him in the position of going into 2024 presumably healthy but likely with workload limitations. He threw 207 2/3 innings in 2021 but was limited to just 65 the year after before the surgery and then missed 2023. Rather than start him in the rotation and have to shut him down at some point, it seems he and the club are going to have him be a bit behind everyone else, increasing his odds of being around for a stretch run and the playoffs.
That left pitchers like Stone, Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and others as options to take a spot behind Glasnow, Yamamoto, Miller and Paxton. Sheehan was taken out of the competition a couple of weeks ago when it was reported that he would begin the season on the injured list due to shoulder soreness.
In the end, Stone won the job thanks to some encouraging results last year and a strong performance in spring this year. He made his MLB debut in 2023 but allowed 31 earned runs in as many innings, though that’s a small sample size and also came in a fairly unstable fashion. He made four starts and four relief appearances around frequent optional assignments. He had a larger sample size of 100 2/3 innings at Triple-A, wherein he posted a 4.74 ERA. His 27.8% strikeout rate was quite strong and his 43.2% ground ball rate close to average, though his 10.7% walk rate a tad high.
Here in camp this year, he has tossed 9 2/3 innings of official action with a 0.93 ERA. He has punched out nine hitters while walking just one and allowing only one earned run. The Dodgers played an exhibition game against Team Korea today in preparation for their Seoul Series and Stone tossed 3 1/3 scoreless with eight punchouts, one walk and no hits.
He will slot into the back of the rotation for now, though the rotation will be constantly changing this year. Buehler will slot in somewhere whenever he is ramped up and ready to go. Sheehan could get back in there if he gets over his shoulder issue. Dustin May underwent flexor tendon and Tommy John revision surgery last summer and could rejoin the club at some point. Clayton Kershaw underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason and is targeting a return in the summer. Tony Gonsolin is more of a long shot since he underwent Tommy John on September 1 of last year and will probably just be nearing readiness as the 2024 season is winding down.
On top of all that, new injuries are sure to crop up throughout the season as they always do. Taking all that together, there will probably be very little consistency in the rotation this year. But there is undoubtedly heaps of talent here and the club seems likely to be in good shape, regardless of who is actually taking the ball. For now, Stone has an opportunity and will look to make the most of it. If other pitchers return to health and he gets squeezed out at some point, he could move to a long relief role in the bullpen or be sent down to the minors, since he still has a couple of option years remaining.
A’s Sign J.D. Davis
March 18: Davis would earn $750K for reaching 500 plate appearances and another $250K if he reaches 550 plate appearances, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
March 16: The Athletics have now officially announced Davis’ one-year deal for the 2024 season.
March 15: The A’s have reportedly agreed to terms with third baseman J.D. Davis on a one-year, $2.5MM free agent contract. The deal, which is pending a physical and has not yet been announced by the team, contains an additional $1MM in performance bonuses. The infielder is represented by ALIGND Sports Management.
Davis stays in the Bay Area after being released by the Giants on Monday. His time in San Francisco ended on an acrimonious note. Pushed out of the starting lineup by the signings of Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman, he was arguably a redundant fit on the San Francisco roster. The Giants also carry Wilmer Flores as a righty-hitting corner infield/DH option.
That prompted San Francisco to shop Davis on the trade market. When no deal presented itself, the Giants placed him on outright waivers. The hope was that another team would claim him and assume the $6.9MM salary which his camp had won in an arbitration hearing in February. None of the other 29 teams took that on, leading the Giants to put Davis on release waivers.
While he was no longer a great roster fit in San Francisco, the release was clearly motivated in large part by finances. Under the collective bargaining agreement, arbitration-eligible players who settle on a contract without going to a hearing are entitled to their full salary even if they’re released. Arbitration salaries determined in a hearing — whether in favor of the player or team — are not fully guaranteed until Opening Day. By releasing Davis more than 15 days before the start of the regular season, the Giants were only responsible for 30 days termination pay. That checked in a little above $1.1MM.
Davis’ deal with the A’s brings his guaranteed money for the upcoming season around $3.6MM. If he hits all of his incentives, he could get to around $4.6MM in earnings. The end of his Giants tenure will cost Davis a few million dollars, although he’ll at least have a clear path to everyday reps.
Oakland was likely to go into the year with either Abraham Toro or Darell Hernaiz logging the majority of their third base work. Toro is a career .211/.282/.354 hitter who spent most of last season in Triple-A with the Brewers. Hernaiz is a talented prospect, but he has yet to make his big league debut. Even if Hernaiz hits his way to the majors this year, he could push defensive specialist Nick Allen for playing time at shortstop. The A’s grabbed Miguel Andújar off waivers from the Pirates early in the offseason. He’s still on the roster but has played mostly in the corner outfield over the past few seasons.
Davis should be a clear upgrade over that group. The 30-year-old (31 in April) has been an above-average hitter in each of the last five seasons. Last year’s .248/.325/.413 batting line was his worst rate production since he emerged in 2019. Still, he played in a career-high 144 games and connected on 18 home runs. Davis has above-average power and draws a fair number of walks. He strikes out at a higher than average rate, yet his .268/.352/.443 slash of the last five years could earn him a spot in the middle third of Mark Kotsay’s lineup.
With between five and six years of major league service, Davis will head back to free agency next offseason. The opportunity to play on an everyday basis is surely appealing as he tries to establish himself as the #3 third base option in a free agent class that’ll include Alex Bregman and, if he opts out, Chapman. Improving his defensive grades would be a big boost to his market value. Davis has typically rated as a fringy defender. Public metrics were split on his value last season. Defensive Runs Saved had him among the least effective third basemen at 11 runs below average in 915 2/3 innings. Statcast was a lot more impressed, rating him four runs better than par.
Davis also drew interest from the Mets this week. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that he chose the A’s in part because of the guarantee that he’ll play on a regular basis. He reunites with former Giants teammates Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and Scott Alexander as veteran additions to the A’s clubhouse. As with any veteran joining a rebuilding team on a one-year deal, he’d be a clear trade candidate this summer if he’s playing at his typical level.
Oakland’s player payroll now sits around $61MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That is a little above last season’s approximate $57MM Opening Day mark but still sits last in MLB by a country mile. The A’s have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move once the contract is finalized.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the A’s and Davis were in agreement. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo had previously suggested the A’s were showing interest in Davis. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported it was a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee with $1MM in performance bonuses.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Hitters Approaching Significant Career Milestones
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The 2024 season is just days away. It’s a time of renewed hope for at least the vast majority of teams. It also opens the opportunity for a few veteran players to continue building on what have already been very accomplished careers, some of which should happen early in the year.
Hits
- Freddie Freeman (2114; milestone: 2165 )
Among active players, Joey Votto leads the way with 2135 career hits. Votto is on a minor league deal with the Blue Jays and might start the season in Triple-A. Freeman will be back in the middle of a loaded Dodger lineup. While he won’t reach any notable round numbers this season — he has a shot to get to 2500 by the end of the ’25 season if he stays healthy — he’ll continue his ascent up the leaderboard in the next few months. Freeman needs only 51 more hits to surpass the original Billy Hamilton and climb into the top 200 on the all-time list. If he tops 200 hits for the second straight season, he’d pull alongside Eddie Mathews into the top 150 by year’s end.
- Paul Goldschmidt (1909; milestone: 2000)
Goldschmidt is 91 hits away from reaching the 2000 club. He’d almost certainly be the 297th player to get to that threshold, depending on whether Evan Longoria decides to continue playing. Longo is only 70 knocks away from that mark but was undecided on whether he’ll give things another go at last check. Even if Longoria does return, Goldschmidt could surpass him on the career leaderboard within a couple months. The 2022 NL MVP hasn’t had a stint on the injured list in almost a decade. If that continues, he should pick up hit #2000 sometime around the All-Star Break.
Notable players approaching 1500 hits: Mookie Betts (1485), Starling Marte (1470), Justin Turner (1461), Giancarlo Stanton (1454), Nick Castellanos (1451), Salvador Pérez (1411)
Home Runs
- Giancarlo Stanton (402; milestone: 432)
Stanton is the only active player with more than 400 career homers. There aren’t any traditional milestones upcoming but a 30-homer showing would put him in rare territory. Cal Ripken Jr. currently sits 50th all-time with 431 longballs. Stanton isn’t a lock to get there this year, as his overall production has plummeted over the past two seasons. Still, he topped 30 in both 2021 and ’22 and hit another 24 last year despite the worst numbers of his career.
- Mike Trout (368; milestone: 400)
Trout is the only player with a realistic shot to join Stanton in the 400-club this year, as he sits 32 away from that mark. After Votto and Longoria, Goldschmidt is next among active players at 60 homers away. Trout only hit 18 homers a year ago thanks to a hamate fracture in his left wrist. He’s only one season removed from popping 40, though. He’ll need to stay healthy, but he could get to 400 career homers in August or September.
- Paul Goldschmidt (340; milestone: 349)
Goldy will need to wait until 2025 to have a chance at the 400-homer plateau, but he’s nearing a notable spot on the leaderboard. With his ninth homer this year, he’d surpass George Foster and move into the top 100 in MLB history. As is the case with the hits milestone, Longoria could complicate this. Longo is at 342 career homers, although it’s unlikely he’ll hit seven more before Goldschmidt picks up his ninth of the season.
- Andrew McCutchen (299)/Anthony Rizzo (295; milestone: 300)
McCutchen and Rizzo should each join the 300-homer club early in the year. McCutchen almost certainly would’ve gotten there late last season were it not for a partially torn Achilles suffered in early September. The Pirates begin the season on a seven-game road trip before welcoming the Orioles to PNC Park in their home opener.
Rizzo also suffered an injury that kept him from the 300-homer plateau last year. After a torrid start, he suffered through a dismal slump related to what the Yankees believe was post-concussion syndrome arising out of a collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. on May 28. They shut him down in August. McCutchen and Rizzo should become the 12th and 13th active players (including Votto, Longoria and J.D. Martinez) to get to the 300-homer mark.
No one else is knocking on the doorstep of 300, although there could be one more late-season entrant to the group. Aaron Judge enters the year with 257 career longballs. A 43-homer showing is certainly within the range of outcomes if he stays healthy.
Notable players approaching 200 homers: Joey Gallo (198), Brandon Belt (194), Christian Yelich (193), Pete Alonso (192), Randal Grichuk (191), Justin Turner (187), Joc Pederson (186), Kris Bryant (182), Max Muncy (180), Cody Bellinger (178), Javier Báez (175), Xander Bogaerts (175)
RBI
- José Abreu (953)/Manny Machado (944)/Mike Trout (940)/Anthony Rizzo (930)/Bryce Harper (889; milestone: 1000)
There are nine active players who have driven in more than 1000 runs over the course of their careers: Longoria, Votto, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, McCutchen, Stanton, Carlos Santana and Martinez. The next five up all have a chance to join them, although it’d take a monster year from Harper to drive in 111. (Harper has topped that once, picking up 114 RBI for the Phillies in 2019.) Abreu, Machado and Trout should get there if they stay healthy. Rizzo could be a borderline case but drove in 70 as recently as two seasons ago.
Stolen Bases
- Jose Altuve (293)/Trea Turner (260; milestone: 300)
Among active players, Elvis Andrus leads the way with 347 career steals. He’s on a minor league deal with the D-Backs, though, so Starling Marte (338) is tops among players currently on a 40-man roster. Altuve and Turner are next in line and could each get to 300 this season. Altuve should do so with relative ease, even if he doesn’t run nearly as often as he did early in his career. Turner has an uphill battle. While he has twice topped 40 steals in a season, he hasn’t gotten past 32 in any of the last three years. To his credit, he went 30-30 last year, so there’s no questioning his efficiency.
Wins Above Replacement, bWAR
WAR doesn’t lend itself to milestone tracking with the same ease as the simpler counting stats. A player’s WAR total can go backwards, for one, and there’s no specific in-game moment when they’ll pass a certain threshold. Even if it’s not the easiest statistic to follow in real time, it’s one that teams and many Hall of Fame voters take into account, so it’s worth highlighting a few players.
- Mike Trout (85.2; milestone: 90)
The aforementioned hamate injury kept Trout to a modest 3-win season a year ago. B-Ref credited him with over six wins in 2022. Replicating that production would make him the only active player to surpass the 90-WAR threshold for his career, a mark topped by only 30 position players in league history. Trout currently sits 33rd on that list. He should pass Chipper Jones and George Brett this year, with an outside chance of tracking down Wade Boggs, Jimmie Foxx and Al Kaline.
- Mookie Betts (64.5; milestone: 70)
With another star-level season, Betts will surpass the 70-WAR threshold. Coincidentally, 70 position players in league history have gotten to that level. Of those players who are eligible for Hall of Fame consideration, only eight (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Pete Rose, Bill Dahlen, Lou Whitaker, Rafael Palmeiro, Bobby Grich and Carlos Beltrán) aren’t enshrined in Cooperstown. There’s already no real doubt that Betts is en route to the Hall of Fame, but crossing the 70-WAR mark will further entrench him among the elite players in MLB history.
Notable players approaching 60 WAR: Freeman (55.7), Machado (54.9), Arenado (54.4)
Jose Urquidy Diagnosed With Forearm Strain, Will Open Season On Injured List
Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy has been diagnosed with a strained muscle in his forearm and will open the season on the injured list, manager Joe Espada announced to the Astros beat this morning (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Rome notes that Espada was asked specifically about Urquidy’s ulnar collateral ligament but replied that the only information he’s received is that there’s a forearm strain. Urquidy, who pulled himself from his most recent spring start due to elbow pain and underwent an MRI, will be shut down from throwing for the next few days.
Urquidy joins Justin Verlander (shoulder discomfort), Luis Garcia Jr. (Tommy John surgery last May) and Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor surgery last June) as Astros starters on the injured list to begin the season. Left-hander Framber Valdez has already been named the Opening Day starter, and he’ll likely be joined on the starting staff by righties Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and J.P. France.
Injuries have mounted for the Astros in spring training, and they’ll now have nearly an entire MLB rotation (and a good one, at that) on their 15-day IL to open the year. The ‘Stros also announced early in camp that setup man Kendall Graveman would miss the season due to shoulder surgery — a move that prompted them to pivot and sign Josh Hader to a five-year contract in free agency.
There’s been talk of a similar late grab on the rotation side of things. As recently as Friday, the ‘Stros were reported to be in “serious” pursuit of two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, but there’s been some doubt cast on the team’s willingness to pay Snell a $30MM annual salary. Doing so would push Houston into the third tier of luxury penalization, resulting in just over $12MM of taxes (on top of Snell’s actual salary). It’d also cause Houston’s top pick in next year’s draft to drop by 10 places and would require the Astros to forfeit their second-highest pick (currently in the third round, as they forfeited their second-rounder to sign Hader) as well as $500K of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency.
For Urquidy, this will mark the third time in four seasons he’ll head to the injured list. In 2021, a pair of shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 107 innings. He was healthy enough to avoid the IL entirely and pitch in 29 games (28 starts) for Houston in 2022, but last year saw a return of some shoulder pain. Urquidy was placed on the injured list on May 1 and didn’t return until Aug. 6, ultimately pitching just 63 innings on the year.
When he’s healthy, there’s little doubt Urquidy is a quality big league pitcher. He was dinged for a 5.29 ERA in last year’s relatively small sample and likely wasn’t pitching at 100% prior to that IL stint, but he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA in every other season of his career. In 405 big league innings, Urquidy has a solid 3.98 earned run average with a below-average 19.6% strikeout rate but a very strong 5.8% walk rate. As an undersized righty (6’0″) with fly-ball tendencies and an average fastball, he’s susceptible to home runs (1.49 HR/9). But Urquidy’s plus changeup has helped him neutralize lefties throughout his career, holding them to an awful .203/.255/.364 slash.
It’s not yet clear how long Urquidy will spend on the shelf, but pairing his absence with that of Verlander — plus the previously known season-opening IL stints for Garcia and McCullers — has already begun to test the Astros’ rotation depth. Add in that right-hander Shawn Dubin has yet to pitch this spring due to shoulder discomfort of his own, and Houston is all the more thin in that department. Swingman Brandon Bielak would probably be the next man up in the event of a further injury, and after him the Astros don’t even have another healthy starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti has been mentioned as a possible option, though he’d need to be selected to the 40-man roster.
As such, even if it’s not Snell or Jordan Montgomery, it seems as though the Astros would make sense for further pitching reinforcements. General manager Dana Brown has gone back and forth on the team’s stance. When announcing that Verlander would open the year on the IL, he suggested the team wasn’t in the market for additional rotation help. Last week, after Urquidy pulled himself after 43 pitches when he’d been slated to throw around 60, Brown reversed course and said he’s “always” in the market for rotation help and even went so far as to acknowledge that so long as Snell remained on the market, the Astros would be checking in on his price tag and where things stood.
If not Snell or Montgomery, the market offers a handful of veteran names. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger are both free agents, as is old friend Zack Greinke. There will also be a handful of options hitting the market late in camp, as veterans who are on non-roster deals with other teams are released or opt out of those deals upon being informed they won’t make the club. There’ll also be some arms available via the DFA market, as teams make corresponding moves to set their 40-man rosters. Some form of rotation addition seems quite plausible for Houston in the next ten days.
Braves Option Bryce Elder; Reynaldo Lopez To Open Season As Fifth Starter
The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve optioned right-handers Bryce Elder and Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett. That follows last week’s option of righty AJ Smith-Shawver and closes the book on Atlanta’s fifth-starter competition. Offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez will open the season as the team’s fifth starter behind Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale, tweets Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
While it’s looked quite likely for some time now that Lopez would get the spot, it’s nonetheless a scenario that would’ve sounded outlandish after the conclusion of the 2023 season. Elder faded down then stretch in the final couple months of the ’23 campaign but was an All-Star last July. Smith-Shawver rose from High-A to the big leagues in a matter of months last season. Lopez, meanwhile, moved to the bullpen early in the 2021 season with the White Sox and has worked as a reliever for the bulk of the past three seasons.
However, even at the time the Braves signed Lopez to a three-year, $30MM contract, they made clear that the plan was going to be to stretch the right-hander out as a rotation option. Atlanta scouts and evaluators are clearly bullish on the right-hander’s power arsenal and feel it can indeed still hold up in a starting capacity. Lopez started 73 games for the ChiSox from 2018-20, so he’s no stranger to the role, but the vast majority of his MLB success has come since moving to short relief stints.
Thus far in camp, he’s at least looked the part of a viable rotation piece. Spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but through 16 2/3 frames Lopez hasn’t done much to hurt his chances. He’s posted a sharp 2.16 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate. Elder has been tagged for 11 runs on 15 hits and six walk with 13 strikeouts through just 12 innings. Ynoa, who’s still making his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery, was slowed early in camp by some shoulder soreness and only made his spring debut on Saturday, tossing one inning. Were it not for the shoulder issue, perhaps he’d have been more firmly in the mix this spring, but he didn’t have the chance to build up and will open the season as a depth option in Gwinnett.
Once Smith-Shawver was optioned a week ago, the competition was largely down to Elder and Lopez. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but after a brilliant start to his 2023 season, Elder limped to a dismal 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 72 innings of the year (14 starts).
Lopez, over the past three seasons, has pitched to a 3.14 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 39% ground-ball rate through 189 innings, most of which has come in a relief setting. He pushed his average fastball velocity up to a career-high 98.4 mph in that role last season, though he’ll likely see that number dip a bit over longer stints as a starter.
Lopez posted a 3.91 ERA in 32 starts for the ’18 White Sox but did so with shaky strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates that prompted metrics like FIP (4.63) and SIERA (4.92) to cast a much less favorable light on his work. The secondary numbers indeed served as a portent for regression; from 2019-20, Lopez was torched for a 5.52 ERA in 210 2/3 innings, thanks largely to pedestrian K-BB numbers and a sky-high 1.88 HR/9 mark.
If Lopez is able to break out as a starter, the three-year, $30MM contract he signed could well look like a bargain. If not, he’s proven over the past few seasons that he can be an impact late-inning reliever, so he could always be shifted back into a one-inning role and deepen an already excellent Atlanta bullpen that features Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee and Lopez’s former White Sox teammate Aaron Bummer.