Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?
The National League Central is arguably the tightest division in the majors right now. That’s subjective but borne out by projection systems. The FanGraphs projected standings have all five teams currently slated for between 83 and 77 wins, the smallest spread from first to last out of the six divisions. The PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus aren’t quite as tight, with a spread of 11.7 games from first to last, but that’s still narrower than any other division in the league.
Last year, the Brewers took the division fairly easily, going 92-70 and finishing nine games up on the second-place Cubs. But a lot has changed since then and there could still be more changes to come. The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned, as do several other free agents. One of those players joining an NL Central club could change the calculation but let’s take a look at where things stand now, in order of last year’s standings.
Brewers: 92-70 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79
The reigning champions have undergone some significant changes, particularly in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late last year, with the rehab putting his 2024 season in jeopardy. He was non-tendered and re-signed but won’t be a factor until late in the upcoming season, if at all. On top of that, the club traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, meaning they are now without both of their co-aces from recent years.
That makes the rotation clearly weaker than it has been in previous seasons, even though they did acquire some reinforcements. DL Hall came over in the Burnes trade and the Brewers will give him a chance to earn a rotation job. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea in addition to bringing in Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to back up Freddy Peralta, who has now been vaulted to the top spot. Prospects Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser could push for roles during the season.
While the starting rotation has clearly been diminished, the lineup should be better. They didn’t lose any core pieces from last year’s position player mix while they have signed free agents Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez for some extra thump. Prospect Jackson Chourio should be up to make his debut this year while other young players like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang will hopefully continue to take steps forward. Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes deal alongside Hall, could seize a role on the infield.
Cubs: 83-79 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 80.8
The Cubs have been retooling for a few years but just narrowly missed a return to the postseason in 2023. Their finished 83-79, just one game behind the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who got the last two Wild Card spots. They then saw Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and Marcus Stroman become free agents, subtracting two regulars from the lineup and a starter from the rotation. Candelario since jumped to the Reds and Stroman to the Yankees, though Bellinger is still out there.
In the rotation, Stroman has effectively been replaced by the signing of Shota Imanaga. The Cubs signed him in January and it’s hoped that he can supply at least some mid-rotation production to make up for the loss of Stroman, slotting in next to Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. A bounceback from Taillon could arguably make the rotation even better this year. The same could be said about a step forward from rookie Jordan Wicks, who debuted last year.
In the lineup, the Cubs are hoping that Michael Busch can be a difference maker. Acquired from the Dodgers in an offseason trade, he has always hit well in the minors but was blocked from seizing a role on his previous club. He’ll take over the first base spot, which was a bit of a hole for the Cubs last year. Bringing back Bellinger to center field still seems possible, but until it happens, the plan appears to be to count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to seize a job. The youngster is considered a great defender but his bat is questionable. Mike Tauchman is on hand if PCA doesn’t make a case for himself.
Signing Chapman to take over third could be a logical move but it’s also possible the club could slot Christopher Morel there. He has an exciting amount of power in his bat and his throwing arm, but concerns about his defense and propensity for strikeouts. Still, the bar is not too high for him to be better than guys like Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom.
Reds: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 79 wins in 2024, PECOTA 78.7
A surge of young position player talent was almost enough to vault the Reds into the playoffs last year. They did that despite a team-wide ERA of 4.83 and and 5.43 mark from their starting rotation. No significant contributors to the 2023 club reached free agency, so even just a bit of internal improvement could make them a contender.
But the Reds weren’t just going to rely on their incumbent options, as they have been fairly active this offseason. They added Candelario to their position player mix despite already having plenty of bats for their lineup. That should give them some cover for any of their young players suffering some regression or an injury.
They also bolstered the pitching staff which, as mentioned, was an issue last year. Free agents Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter were all signed to the roster. Montas is coming off a lengthy injury absence but was quite effective the last time he was healthy. Martínez could be a back-end addition for the rotation or he might wind up in the bullpen with Pagán and Suter. They could also get better just via health, as no one on the club logged 150 innings last year as each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft spent time on the IL, while Andrew Abbott didn’t debut until midseason.
Pirates: 76-86 in 2023, FG projects 77 wins in 2024, PECOTA 73
Somewhat similar to the Reds, the Pirates also rode a wave of young talent last year, though it didn’t have the same staying power. They were in first place in the division as late as June 15 but faded as the season wore on and finished outside contention.
They were facing almost no roster losses, as their most significant free agents from 2023 were Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez. McCutchen re-signed while Velasquez only made eight starts last year anyway due to elbow surgery. But they faced other challenges as right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodríguez both required UCL surgery this offseason and will miss all of 2024.
With Rodríguez out, the club is hoping Henry Davis can pivot back behind the plate and take over. They signed veteran Yasmani Grandal as a bit of insurance in case things don’t work out with Davis. They grabbed a couple of veteran starters as well in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales, hoping that duo can over for the losses of Oviedo and Velasquez as well as the struggles of Roansy Contreras. The impending debut of prospect Paul Skenes could also help in that department as well, with Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler perhaps not far behind.
The lineup hasn’t drastically changed, with Rowdy Tellez brought in as a bounceback candidate. Perhaps their most impactful lineup upgrade could be the health of Oneil Cruz, who missed most of 2023 due ankle surgery. They also signed Aroldis Chapman to help David Bednar form a lockdown late-inning duo.
Cardinals: 71-91 in 2023, FG projects 83 wins in 2024, PECOTA 84.7
Many predicted the Cards to win the division last year but it clearly did not happen. Plenty of things went wrong, particularly on the pitching side of things, and they ended up in the basement. The team-wide ERA of 4.83 was better than just five teams in the majors, with the 5.08 rotation ERA even worse. Adam Wainwright‘s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting while Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty also struggled. Depth guys like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford were all bad to varying degrees.
Remaking the rotation was the clear priority this winter and they have been active in that department. They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Tekoah Roby and Drew Rom were all acquired at last year’s deadline and could make the emergency depth stronger. Victor Santos was added this offseason as part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.
Not too much has changed on the position player side of things. As mentioned, O’Neill was shipped out but the club is hoping to replace him internally. The emergence of Masyn Winn at shortstop means that Tommy Edman is probably now an outfielder full-time, assuming Winn produces better results than he did in his debut last year. Bounceback performances, particularly from Nolan Arenado, will be key. In the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton were traded last summer. The Cards traded for Andrew Kittredge and signed Keynan Middleton to try to make up for those two departures.
Compared to the other divisions in the big leagues, this one is the hardest to decide on a clear favorite. The Brewers are the defending champs but have lost their two aces. Can the extra offense make up for that? Was it a rare blip that the Cardinals were so bad last year? Have the Cubs done enough to get over the hump? Can the Reds or Pirates get enough improvement from their young players to surge ahead?
What do you think? Have your say in the poll below!
Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?
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Cardinals 29% (3,702)
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Reds 24% (3,092)
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Cubs 21% (2,756)
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Brewers 18% (2,301)
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Pirates 8% (1,045)
Total votes: 12,896
Diamondbacks Sign Kyle Garlick, Albert Almora To Minor League Deals
The D-backs announced Friday that they’ve signed right-handed-hitting outfielders Kyle Garlick and Albert Almora to minor league contracts. Both have been invited to major league spring training.
Arizona has been on the lookout for right-handed-hitting bats to complement lefty-hitting designated hitter Joc Pederson as well as lefty outfielders Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll. The Snakes recently signed Randal Grichuk to a one-year, $2MM big league contract, and he’ll get the first crack at that role as a result. However, both Garlick and Almora make some sense for a team seeking additional right-handed depth in the outfield — though the pair brings fairly different skill sets.
Garlick, 32, is a classic lefty masher who offers limited defensive value in the outfield corners. He’s hit just .240 with a .289 OBP against lefties in his career but has slugged a hefty .510 against them. Garlick has popped 14 homers and 10 doubles in just 208 plate appearances against southpaws at the MLB level. He’s a career .207/.264/.348 hitter against righties, however. Garlick has spent the past three seasons in the Twins organization and has been used far more often against lefties than righties, as one would expect.
As for the 29-year-old Almora, he’s more of a glove-first option in the outfield with less power but solid all-around production against southpaws. The former Cubs top prospect is a .259/.300/.383 hitter in 1605 big league plate appearances — including .267/.321/.389 against left-handed pitching. Almora has ample experience at all three outfield spots and offers a plus glove at each of the three. The bulk of his production at the MLB level came early in his career; he didn’t appear in the majors last season and posted a tepid .219/.265/.344 line in 686 plate appearances from 2019-22.
Royals Notes: Catchers, Hernandez, Pasquantino
The Royals’ recent deal with Austin Nola gives them three catchers on the 40-man roster, and the organization has considered carrying all three to open the season, general manager J.J. Picollo suggested Friday (X link via Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star). Picollo voiced confidence that Freddy Fermin would break camp as the team’s backup to Salvador Perez but noted that “there’s a chance” all three of Perez, Fermin and Nola could be on the Opening Day club. Thompson notes that Kansas City pursued Nola earlier in the offseason before yesterday’s deal as well.
Carrying three catchers could make it easier for the Royals to get Perez some extra time at designated hitter. That’d be a boost to the team’s overall defense, as while Perez graded as a plus defender and won five Gold Gloves earlier in his career, he’s not the same defensive player now as he approaches his 34th birthday. Perez has long been one of the sport’s iron men behind the dish, working one of the largest workloads of any catcher in the game. It’s natural that such heavy usage would take its toll on his 6’3″, 255-pound frame, as would the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2019 season. Even with that missed season, Perez has caught more innings (9,071) than anyone other than Yadier Molina since the 2013 season.
Even post-Tommy John surgery, in 2021, Perez led the league with a massive 44% caught-stealing rate behind the dish. That number plummeted over the two subsequent seasons, however, bottoming out at a career-low 14% in 2023. Statcast still credits Perez with solid blocking skills on pitches in the dirt, but he’s also among the league’s least-effective backstops in terms of framing pitches by that same measure. Perez posted a combined 28 Defensive Runs Saved from 2012-16 and was roughly average from 2017-19, but he’s been below average in each of the past three seasons, including -11 DRS in just 738 innings this past season.
Fermin, meanwhile, posted strong defensive grades in 2023 and delivered a surprisingly solid .281/.321/.461 slash as a 28-year-old rookie. There’s an argument to be made that based on defense alone, he deserves a larger share of playing time than a traditional backup. Nola’s defensive grades have waned as he’s entered his mid-30s, but rostering him would make it easier for the Royals to DH Perez, start Fermin behind the dish and still have another catching option. He’s also spent time at first base and second base, with more sparse appearances at third base and in the outfield corners. Nola does have a minor league option remaining, so it’s also possible he heads to Triple-A Omaha as a more conventional depth option.
Turning to the Kansas City bullpen, right-hander Carlos Hernandez has been slowed by injury to this point in camp, Picollo announced (X link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). The flamethrowing 26-year-old (27 next month) hasn’t thrown off a mound in two weeks due to soreness in his right shoulder, but the team anticipates he’ll have enough time to make six to seven spring appearances. That’s position him to be ready for Opening Day, assuming there are no setbacks with that ailing shoulder.
Hernandez is coming off an unsightly 5.27 ERA in 70 innings last season, although a poor finish to the year torpedoed what had been solid numbers for much of the ’23 campaign. Through the first four months of the year, Hernandez pitched 53 innings with a 3.57 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. Everything trended in the wrong direction over the final two months, however; Hernandez’s strikeout rate nearly halved, clocking in at 15.6%, and his walk rate exploded to 17.8%. Six of the ten homers he surrendered last year came over his final 17 innings, and he would up yielding a grisly 20 earned runs in that time.
Whether the shoulder was healthy to close out the season or was quietly bothering him, Hernandez showed for two-thirds of the season that he has the ability to be a key piece in the Kansas City bullpen. His health will be a notable factor for K.C. fans to track throughout spring training.
On the other end of the health spectrum, the Royals welcomed first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino back to the lineup Friday — his first game appearance in more than 250 days since undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. Pasquantino chatted with Sam McDowell of the Kansas City Star about the rigors of the rehab process — not only the physical ones but also the mental difficulty of being sidelined.
The 26-year-old called his time away from the field “miserable,” particularly given some added guilt stemming from the fact that he elected to undergo surgery at a time when the Royals were in Baltimore, just a three-hour drive from his native Richmond, Va. Friends and family had flocked to Camden Yards to see Pasquantino play, only for him to instead opt for a season-ending surgical procedure. Pasquantino offered plenty of candid comments on the nature of his rehab and detailed the intense video work he underwent during his down time as he studied all aspects of the game and searched for ways to improve.
Pasquantino came roaring out of the gate in 2023, slashing .298/.383/.539 with seven homers and more walks (11.7%) than strikeouts (11%) in his first 163 trips to the plate. He fell into a deep slump thereafter, hitting just .167/.227/.278 in his next 97 trips to the plate before undergoing surgery.
A healthy Pasquantino would be a boon for a Royals team that has spent aggressively this offseason in an effort to turn the page on a series of losing seasons. Kansas City signed Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson for a combined $109.5MM and traded for relievers John Schreiber and Nick Anderson in an effort to assemble a better club. There’s a massive gap to close after finishing the 2023 season with 106 losses, but there’s little doubting that Kansas City will be an improved club in 2024.
White Sox Claim Peyton Burdick
The White Sox announced Friday that they’ve claimed outfielder Peyton Burdick off waivers from the Orioles, who’d designated him for assignment earlier in the week. Chicago placed righty Matt Foster on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Foster is recovering from Tommy John surgery performed late last April and was therefore already likely to miss at least the first 60 days of the 2024 season.
Burdick will turn 27 on Monday. The righty-swinging slugger has seen limited big league action over the past two seasons in Miami, though the Marlins traded him to the O’s for cash earlier this month after also designating the former third-round pick for assignment. Burdick is just a .200/.281/.368 hitter with a huge 38% strikeout rate in the majors, although that comes with a notable small-sample caveat, as he’s tallied just 139 plate appearances. He’s hit for a low average but shown power and plate discipline in the upper minors, slashing .214/.324/.424 in 952 Triple-A plate appearances. Burdick has gone down on strikes in 32.7% of his Triple-A plate appearances as well, but scouting reports have long been enamored of his plus-plus power and above-average speed.
Miami selected Burdick with the No. 82 overall pick back in 2019, and he posted huge numbers up through the Double-A level as he climbed the ranks in their system. His bat has stalled out in Triple-A and the big leagues, but Burdick’s blend of easy right-handed pop, speed and an ability to play all three outfield positions still make him an intriguing depth pickup for a White Sox club with ample uncertainty in the outfield. Burdick has a pair of minor league options remaining as well, so he can be sent to Triple-A Charlotte with his new club without needing to first clear waivers.
The White Sox are leaning toward trade acquisition Dominic Fletcher as their primary right fielder to begin the season, and they’ll have Andrew Benintendi in left field and Luis Robert Jr. in center. Burdick could make the club as a fourth outfielder, though he’ll face competition from veteran Kevin Pillar, who’s in camp on a non-roster deal and could give the South Siders a righty-hitting backup outfielder off the bench as well. Oscar Colas, Zach DeLoach and first baseman/outfielder Gavin Sheets are among the ChiSox’ other outfield options on the 40-man roster, though each hits left-handed.
Steinbrenner: Yankees Open To Further Additions
Yankees chairman Hal Steinbrenner spoke to members of the media yesterday, including Chris Kirschner and Brendan Duty of The Athletic, noting that the club is open to making further additions to the roster but also adding that nothing is close and there could be budgetary concerns with any possible transactions.
“Given where we are payroll-wise, any addition to the club is going to be a costly one,” Steinbrenner said. “I’m still willing to consider anything that [general manager Brian Cashman] and his team bring my way. I’ll leave it at that. We are not done trying to improve this team.”
The openness to making another move doesn’t necessarily mean that one will come to pass, as Steinbrenner himself made clear. “I’m not saying anything is going to happen, I’m not saying something’s not going to happen. But I’m still willing to improve this team however we can.” But the mere fact that he’s keeping the window open is notable, especially given the way others have spoken recently.
Decision makers for the Giants, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners, Twins, Blue Jays and Angels have all downplayed the likelihood of further moves for their clubs in the past week or so. Though the so-called “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger are all unsigned and many fans are pressing their favorite team to jump in, executives and owners seem to be doing their best to lower expectations.
Whether that’s a genuine expression of the current state of affairs or a posture for bargaining purposes isn’t known, but Steinbrenner’s comments nonetheless stand out as being a bit less outwardly pessimistic. Though as he mentioned, there will be significant financial considerations to any possible deal.
Roster Resource currently pegs the Yankees’ competitive balance tax number at $307MM, already about $10MM beyond the fourth and final tax tier of $297MM. As a third-time payor at that level, the Yankees are looking at a 110% tax rate for any further spending.
The club has been connected to Snell throughout the offseason, reportedly offering him a deal of $150MM over six years at one point. That deal would have come with an average annual value of $25MM and the Yankees would have had to pay $27.5MM in taxes. That means they would be looking at giving up $52.5MM to add Snell to the rotation for this year.
That $150MM guarantee wasn’t enough to get Snell to put pen to paper, which perhaps suggests the Yanks might have to be willing to go even further to get a deal done. The lefty hasn’t signed anywhere so perhaps the club can hold firm to their position, but it still highlights the significant numbers the club is calculating when considering these kinds of moves.
The end of February is now in sight and spring games are taking place. As the regular season creeps closer and big name free agents are still available, it seems a staring contest is taking place. Boras obviously doesn’t want to take offers for his clients that he considers below what they are worth while clubs are doing their best to present themselves as content with their current rosters and payrolls. Something will have to eventually give and it seems as though the Yankees could perhaps be at the table.
Their rotation is currently fronted by Gerrit Cole but has question marks beyond that. Each of Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman missed significant time due to injuries last year. Clarke Schmidt is fine as a #5 but has an option year remaining and could potentially be pushed to the minors if someone else is signed. The Yanks dealt away four starting pitching options in the Juan Soto trade so there would be logic to pushing Schmidt down the depth chart for when a need inevitably arises as the season goes along. Steinbrenner trotted out the “I don’t think you can have enough pitching” cliché yesterday, per video relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.
It remains to be seen if they are willing to pay for someone like Snell or Montgomery in order to bolster the staff. The free agent market also features Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, Zack Greinke and others.
Mariners To Sign Brian Anderson, Trevor Kelley To Minor League Deals
12:10pm: Anderson will make a salary of $2MM if he makes the team, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
10:30am: The Mariners have infielder/outfielder Brian Anderson and right-hander Trevor Kelley in camp and are signing them to minor league deals, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Anderson is repped by CAA Sports and Kelley by C.L. Rocks Corporation.
Anderson, 31 in May, was once a solid regular in the big leagues but is coming off three straight frustrating seasons, with injuries playing a role. He signed with the Brewers last year after being non-tendered by the Marlins. He got into 96 games for Milwaukee but hit just .226/.310/.368 for a wRC+ of 85. He also spent a few weeks on the injured list due to a lower back strain. The Brewers released him in October.
It was a fairly similar story when Anderson was with the Marlins in 2021 and 2022. He went on the IL due to oblique, shoulder and back issues and hit .233/.321/.359 for a 90 wRC+ over those two years, leading the Fish to cut him loose.
But he had a good three-year run prior to that. He got into 341 games for the Marlins over those three campaigns, one of which was shortened by the pandemic. He hit .266/.350/.436 in that time, drawing walks at a 9% clip while striking out at a reasonable rate of 21.8%. That production translated to a 115 wRC+, indicating he was 15% better than league average in that time. He also spent significant time at both third base and right field, in addition to brief looks at first and second base.
His defense has generally been graded well, as his work at the hot corner has produced two Defensive Runs Saved and three Outs Above Average. His right field work is more split as DRS has him at +8 and OAA at -10, but his arm strength is considered elite, with Statcast having him in 98th percentile of qualified players last year.
The M’s currently have some uncertainty at both third and the outfield corners. At the hot corner, they are set to have a platoon of Luis Urías and Josh Rojas, both of whom are coming off down years. In the outfield, they are set to have Julio Rodríguez and Mitch Haniger in two spots, with Luke Raley, Taylor Trammell, Cade Marlowe and Dominic Canzone in the mix for playing time as well.
Anderson will give them depth at both spots and perhaps a platoon role would be possible at first glance, though maybe not so much after digging deeper. He hits from the right side while each of Rojas, Raley, Trammell, Marlowe and Canzone are lefties. However, Anderson has reverse splits for his career, having hit .258/.344/.413 against righties for a 108 wRC+ but .231/.312/.375 against southpaws for a wRC+ of 89. Regardless of the eventual playing time fit, he bolsters the depth chart at two positions where Seattle has questions.
Kelley, 31, spent last year with the Rays but didn’t have much success. He posted a 5.87 earned run average in 15 1/3 innings at the big league level and a an ERA of 5.23 in Triple-A. He was outrighted off the roster in September. He’s now thrown 50 2/3 innings in the majors overall, also spending time with the Red Sox, Phillies and Brewers, but with a career ERA of 6.75.
Though he struggled in the minors last year, he has impressed on the farm before. Even with last year’s poor results, his Triple-A is 2.38 in 197 innings spanning five different seasons. He has struck out 24.4% of batters faced at that level while walking only 8.5%.
The Mariners have a pretty strong bullpen at the moment but injuries are inevitable in a long season. Kelley will be jockeying for a role alongside other experienced NRIs like Heath Hembree, Ty Buttrey, Kirby Snead and others. If he’s added to the roster at any point, he’s out of options.
Which Of The Boras Four Will Be The First To Sign?
Spring Training games got underway yesterday. The regular season opens in less than a month. Offseason activity is far from over, though, largely on account of the so-called “Boras Four.” Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman remain unsigned.
Over the past couple weeks, a handful of teams have indirectly suggested they weren’t going to be suitors for the top free agents. High-level executives with the Giants, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners and Twins have downplayed the chance of a free agent strike of note. Angels owner Arte Moreno has suggested payroll is coming down, while Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins indicated they could have to move money if they’re to make another significant acquisition. Others, like the Red Sox and Cubs, appear to be in a holding pattern as they try to wait out the market.
Perhaps there’s some element of public posturing from a few of those teams. If any of these players are close to an agreement, though, there hasn’t been much indication of that. Unsubstantiated reports suggested the Yankees were closing in on a deal with Snell earlier this week, but both SNY’s Andy Martino and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com confirmed there hasn’t been any recent movement on that front.
If the number of plausible suitors for any of this group has dwindled, perhaps a Spring Training injury can change the calculus. The Orioles revealed early in camp that #2 starter Kyle Bradish has a UCL injury that’ll send him to the injured list. Mets staff ace Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder yesterday; he’ll also start the year on the shelf. President of baseball operations David Stearns shot down the idea that’d increase the urgency for the Mets to go outside the organization for rotation help.
Again, it’s possible that’s designed not to publicly concede leverage in talks with the Boras Corporation if the Mets did circle back on Snell or Montgomery. To this point, there’s no indication any of these players have meaningfully moved off asking prices from the early part of the offseason. Will that change, or will one of these teams push beyond their comfort zone and reward any of these players’ patience?
Whose market with thaw most quickly? Which of the Boras four is going to be the first to agree to terms? Will any of this group linger in free agency beyond Opening Day?
Who Will Be The First To Sign?
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Blake Snell. 30% (4,441)
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Jordan Montgomery. 30% (4,434)
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Matt Chapman. 21% (3,121)
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Cody Bellinger. 18% (2,691)
Total votes: 14,687
How Many Of The Boras Four Will Sign After Opening Day?
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2 33% (3,960)
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1 19% (2,236)
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3 14% (1,603)
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4 13% (1,503)
Total votes: 11,841
The Opener: Spring Training, Wong, Marlins
With regular season baseball less than a month away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world over the weekend:
1. Spring Training games begin for 28 clubs:
While the Dodgers and Padres opened Cactus League play against each other yesterday, the league’s other 28 teams will all have their own first games of the season this weekend. Today, the Cubs will take on the White Sox, the Rangers will face the Royals, and the Diamondbacks will square off against the Rockies in addition to a second game between San Diego and L.A. Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Twins will kick off spring play in Florida with exhibition games against the Division I Northeastern Huskies and Minnesota Gophers, respectively.
Grapefruit League play won’t begin in earnest until tomorrow, which features a slate of games highlighted by newly-minted Orioles ace Corbin Burnes kicking off the club’s spring with a start opposite Boston’s Garrett Whitlock. Elsewhere in the AL East, right-handers Marcus Stroman of the Yankees and Lucas Giolito of the Red Sox figure to make their spring debuts for their new clubs on Sunday.
2. Wong signing on the horizon?
According to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, second baseman Kolten Wong has seen his market “begin to pick up” following a number of infield signings around the league over the past week. From 2017 to 2022, Wong was an above-average regular at the keystone with quality defense and a .269/.349/.414 slash line during that time. The 2023 season was difficult for the 32-year-old, however, as he hit a paltry .165/.241/.227 in 216 trips to the plate with the Mariners before being released and catching on with the Dodgers. He much better upon arriving in Los Angeles, where he was used largely as a pinch hitter but slashed a respectable .300/.353/.500 in 34 trips to the plate during the season’s final month.
Solid as that brief stint with L.A. was, few clear landing spots for a pure second baseman such as Wong remain around the league. The Pirates were previously rumored to be considering a reunion with fellow lefty-swinging second baseman Adam Frazier before he signed with the Royals, however, and it’s certainly possible to imagine Wong fitting in as a left-handed bench bat on a club such as the Angels, Yankees, or Brewers.
3. What’s next for the Marlins?
The Marlins filled their most obvious hole on the roster yesterday by agreeing to a one-year deal with shortstop Tim Anderson, who figures to take over as the regular at the position, pushing Jon Berti into a utility role. While Anderson struggled badly in his final season with the White Sox last year, the two-time All Star was among the better regulars at the position from 2019 to 2022, when he slashed a collective .318/.347/.474 in 318 games. With the club’s vacancy at shortstop filled, what’s next in Miami? The club has largely stood pat this winter after winning 84 games last year en route to a surprising playoff appearance, though they did lose Jorge Soler to the Giants in free agency.
There’s been buzz throughout the winter that the Marlins could look to deal a controllable arm such as Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, or Edward Cabrera from their rotation mix, though it’s unclear how likely such a deal is and Garrett’s recent bout of shoulder soreness could complicate that decision further for the club. If Miami were to decide to consider further augmenting the roster after adding Anderson, a bat to add to an outfield/DH mix that currently features Avisail Garcia, Jesus Sanchez, and Bryan De La Cruz alongside center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. could make some sense. The likes of Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, and Tommy Pham are all still available in free agency and could be sensible, fairly low-cost additions for the Marlins to make.
Pirates Extend Mitch Keller
The Pirates announced that they have signed right-hander Mitch Keller to five-year contract extension. The deal was previously-reported by Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. It’s a $77MM guarantee for the 27-year-old righty, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that the new contract includes the 2024 campaign and runs through 2028. The Tidal Sports Group client had previously been slated to reach free agency following the 2025 campaign.
Keller had already agreed to a one-year, $5.4425MM deal for the upcoming season, avoiding an arbitration hearing in the process. As such, he’ll be guaranteed four years and $71.5575MM in new money. The Associated Press reports the financial breakdown. While Keller’s salary for 2024 is unchanged, he also collects a $2.0575MM signing bonus. He’ll make $15MM in 2025, $16.5MM in ’26, $18MM in ’27 and $20MM in 2028.
That aligns closely with the four-year, $73.5MM extension between the Twins and Pablo Lopez a year ago. Lopez, like Keller now, had between four and five years of big league service at the time of the agreement. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows several other comps of note, including Kyle Freeland‘s five-year, $64.5MM deal with the Rockies.
A 2014 second-round pick and longtime top prospect, Keller has taken major steps forward over the past two seasons, pitching to a combined 4.08 ERA in 353 1/3 innings. That solid but unspectacular ERA masks some more promising underlying trends. Keller’s 2022 season took off when he added a sinker to his arsenal in mid-May, helping to take some pressure off what had been a rather hittable four-seam fastball. He was dominant for the first two-thirds of the 2023 season before stumbling with a handful of meltdown starts over the final couple months as he pitched to a new career-high workload (194 1/3 frames).
That ugly start in 2022 and similarly rocky finish in 2023 bookend a stretch of 41 starts that underscore the upside the Pirates are chasing with this signing. At his best from ’22-’23, Keller rattled off a stretch of 240 1/3 innings of 3.25 ERA ball, fanning 23.5% of his opponents against a sharp 7.9% walk rate and strong 48.4% ground-ball rate. And even with the tough finish to his 2023 campaign, Keller ended the year with career-best marks in strikeout rate (25.5%), walk rate (6.7%), average exit velocity (87.7 mph) and hard-hit rate (35.6%). There are plenty of arrows pointing up with regard to the 6’2″, 220-pound righty, and the Bucs surely view him as someone capable of that low-3.00s ERA who can team with 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes to anchor the rotation moving forward.
Skenes figures to debut this summer, and the Keller extension gives the organization a chance at a dynamic one-two punch atop the staff for the foreseeable future. For the 2024 season, the Bucs’ rotation will also include veterans Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales, though neither lefty is guaranteed anything beyond the current campaign. (Gonzales has a $15MM club option with no buyout.)
The Pirates’ ability to either develop or acquire sufficient rotation help beyond the ’24 season will be critical to their chances of reversing a nearly decade-long run of losing baseball at PNC Park. Prospects like Quinn Priester, Kyle Nicolas, Jackson Wolf, Jared Jones, Anthony Solometo and Bubba Chandler give the Pirates a solid stock of promising young arms alongside Skenes. Each of Skenes, Jones and Chandler has garnered some top-100 fanfare this season (as Priester has in the past).
Of course, the Pirates’ history of developing starting pitching has been suspect, at best. Much of the struggles came under the now-former front office regime, but we’ve seen touted talents like Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove all struggle to reach their ceilings with the Bucs before being traded. Cole, Glasnow and Musgrove, in particular, broke out with their new clubs. Even Keller took a long road to reach the form that led to today’s five-year agreement. It’ll be imperative for the Pirates that they improve their development of young pitchers and/or find help outside the organization. Notably, they’ve been in constant contact with the Marlins about Miami’s bevy of young pitchers and have explored other trade possibilities as well.
Keller joins outfielder Bryan Reynolds and third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes as core pieces the Pirates have signed to long-term deals over the past few years. It’s a breath of fresh air for Bucs fans who’d grown accustomed to seeing their best players traded as their arbitration prices escalated. The long-term deals signed by each player don’t necessarily preclude eventual trades — as evidenced by Andrew McCutchen — but it’s nevertheless an encouraging trend for Pittsburgh fans to see a trio of extensions that each top $70MM in guaranteed money, considering their $60MM extension with Jason Kendall back in 2000 stood as the richest in franchise history for upwards of two decades.
Each of Keller, Reynolds and Hayes are now signed through at least the 2028 season — the same year that the team’s control windows over shortstop Oneil Cruz and outfielder Jack Suwinski extend. That quintet, paired with Skenes and catchers Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez, could form the nucleus of the Pirates’ next contending club. Reynolds’ seven-year, $100MM extension and Hayes’ eight-year, $70MM pact are both generally affordable, even by the Pirates’ modest standards, which should give the Bucs flexibility to supplement that core in other ways.
It’s unlikely the Pirates ever dive into the deep end of the free agent market. But if owner Bob Nutting ever decides he’s finally comfortable spending in even the second tiers of the open market — Francisco Liriano‘s three-year, $39MM contract is the largest free agent signing in Pirates history — the Pirates would have the chance to complement their growing foundation with some meaningful talent and break away from their lengthy run near or at the bottom of the NL Central.
Tigers Sign Gio Urshela
The Tigers added to their infield on Thursday, announcing the signing of Gio Urshela to a one-year, $1.5MM guarantee. Detroit added that Urshela, a client of Rep 1 Baseball, would receive $100K bonuses at each of 500, 530, 560, 590 and 620 plate appearances. That pushes the deal’s maximum value to $2MM.
It’s the second instance this week of a veteran infielder agreeing to a $1.5MM free agent deal that falls well shy of what most pundits expected entering the offseason. Urshela’s deal matches the $1.5MM deal that Amed Rosario inked with the Rays on Tuesday. Detroit president of baseball operations Scott Harris recently suggested his club wasn’t likely to sign any “everyday-type” hitters to big league deals, citing a desire to commit to the wave of young prospects bubbling up to the majors. However, at this price point, Urshela was likely too enticing an opportunity for a team without a clear answer at third base.
Prior to this agreement, the Tigers looked to be preparing to begin the season with a platoon of Zach McKinstry and either Andy Ibanez or Matt Vierling at the hot corner. That pair would presumably hold things own until 2022 first-round pick Jace Jung worked his way to the big leagues.
The Tigers, perhaps not coincidentally, informed Jung today that he wouldn’t be making the Opening Day roster (X link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). They’ve also said fellow prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy will move off of third base and focus exclusively on outfield work. The addition of Urshela gives the Tigers a viable everyday option at third base while Jung finishes off his development — or at the very least provides a strong right-handed bat to complement with the lefty-swinging McKinstry.
Beyond the fit at third base, Urshela provides insurance in other ways. He’s played some shortstop in the big leagues, including 71 innings with the Angels in 2023, and could step in for Javier Baez at times. He also gives Detroit a veteran to be leaned upon in the event that top prospect Colt Keith, who signed a six-year extension before making his MLB debut and is expected to open the year as the Tigers’ second baseman, struggles early on. Urshela could handle second base himself or take up a more prominent role at the hot corner, with McKinstry sliding over to second base should Keith ultimately be determined to be in need of some more time in the minors.
Based on track record alone, Urshela was a candidate for a multi-year deal — and he’d likely have been a lock for one had he been fully healthy last season. Dating back to a 2019 breakout with the Yankees, he carries a .291/.335/.452 batting line in 1871 trips to the plate. He’s struck out at an 18.9% clip overall in that time but improved his bat-to-ball skills over the past two seasons between Anaheim and Minnesota; since Opening Day 2022 he’s fanned in just 16.9% of his plate appearances.
Solid as his career has been since becoming a big league regular, Urshela is a rebound candidate. His power output with the Angels was curiously low to begin the 2023 season, with just two home runs and a paltry .075 ISO (slugging minus batting average) through mid-June. He never got much of a chance to right the ship after suffering a pelvic fracture on June 15 of last season. Urshela didn’t require surgery but was on crutches in the aftermath of the injury and wound up missing the remainder of the season as it healed.
Urshela has fairly even platoon splits throughout his career, though he does skew slightly more productive against left-handed pitching (.290/.328/.445 against southpaws; .272/.320/.414 versus righties). That surely held extra appeal for a Tigers club that posted a tepid .241/.312/.398 slash against lefties in 2023, with the resulting 95 wRC+ ranking 22nd among MLB teams.
From a payroll vantage point, the Urshela deal barely makes a dent. He’s effectively replacing a league-minimum player on the roster, so he’s only adding about $750K of additional guarantees to the Tigers’ projected payroll. Roster Resource pegs Detroit at a $108.4MM projection for the 2024 season, which checks in more than $90MM shy of the team’s franchise-record mark set back in 2017 (under late owner Mike Ilitch, whose son, Chris, now runs the team). As such, there ought to be further resources available if similar bargain options to this Urshela addition present themselves. There’s no indication, however, that the Tigers have considered a higher-profile splash in free agency or on the trade market in the late stages of the offseason.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Tigers and Urshela were in agreement on a one-year, $1.5MM deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the presence of incentives, which Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press specified as being worth up to $500K.