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Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall

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The Red Sox announced agreement Tuesday with Adam Duvall on a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $7MM guarantee that could max out at $10MM via incentives. The CAA Sports client will receive a $1MM signing bonus and a $6MM salary. He’d lock in an extra $500K for reaching 350, 400, 450 and 500 plate appearances and would tack on $1MM if he hits the 550-PA mark.

Duvall, 34, started his MLB career with the Giants in 2014 and has since bounced around the NL, playing for the Reds, Braves, and Marlins. The highlights of his career thus far were the 2016 season, when he earned an All-Star selection with the Reds, slashing .241/.297/.498 (104 wRC+) with 33 homers in 150 games, and the 2021 season, where he earned a Gold Glove award, slashed .226/.287/.513 (107 wRC+) down the stretch for the Braves following a midseason trade from the Marlins, and won the World Series with Atlanta. On the season, Duvall led the NL in RBI with 113 while swatting 38 home runs.

Duvall returned to Atlanta for the 2022 season, but his age-33 campaign wasn’t nearly as productive as that 2021 season. A left wrist strain — more specifically, a torn tendon sheath that required surgery — quite likely impacted Duvall’s overall performance, but the regression was still pronounced. Coming into the 2022 season, Duvall had a career .241 ISO (slugging minus batting average). The .263 ISO he turned in during his 38-homer performance in 2021 ranked him 14th among all qualified batters. That power wilted considerably, however, with Duvall’s ISO shrinking to .188 — ranking 74th among players with at least 300 plate appearances. The resulting .213/.276/.401 slash was 13% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+.

The 2022 season saw Duvall’s average exit velocity dip from 89.8 mph to 88.3 mph, while his rate of barreled balls and hard-hit balls each dropped by more than three percentage points. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate jumped from a career-worst 31.4% in 2021 to an even higher 32.1% in 2022.

It’s impossible to say exactly how much that was due to his injured wrist and how much might be due to a general decline in skill. For a low-OBP slugger like Duvall, the loss in power is certainly concerning regarding his ability to play as an average or better bat on an everyday basis. That being said, Duvall still showed huge power against lefties in 2022 (.233/.282/.562, 129 wRC+) while posting a strong +5 OAA in just half a season split mainly between left and center field, showing he does still have value even if his power doesn’t return to its pre-2022 form.

With offseason acquisition Masataka Yoshida manning left and Alex Verdugo set to play right field, Duvall seems ticketed for time in center field — although he’d notably be a fine right-handed complement to either Yoshida or Verdugo, who each bat left-handed. Cotillo reported yesterday that the Red Sox believe Duvall to be capable of playing center field at age 34, despite the fact that he has just 593 Major League innings at the position.

Whether Duvall will play center on an everyday basis or be in more of a timeshare depends on the development of young Jarren Duran, whose meager .221/.283/.363 (78 wRC+) slash line in 2022 was held down by a massive platoon split; Duran slashed just .184/.238/.211 against lefties for Boston, translating to a virtually unplayable 22 wRC+. Against righties, however, he batted a more palatable .229/.293/.398 (91 wRC+). Duvall and Duran manning center would allow Enrique Hernandez to play the infield, helping to cover for the loss of Xander Bogaerts in free agency and Trevor Story to injury.

Even after an offseason that saw Boston extend Rafael Devers for $313.5MM and add Yoshida on a five-year, $90MM deal along with smaller pacts with Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, and Chris Martin, Chaim Bloom’s front office still has more to do ahead of Opening Day, even after signing Duvall. The top priority going forward has to be addressing the middle infield, where Hernandez can capably play everyday, but the top option to be his double play partner is Christian Arroyo. Shortstop Elvis Andrus, in whome Boston reportedly has interest, is the best middle infielder left on the free agent market. That said, Josh Harrison and perhaps even Jurickson Profar remain as potential options at second base and the Red Sox have reportedly explored the trade market for infield help as well.

With Duvall on board, the Red Sox are projected for an Opening Day payroll of about $190MM, with roughly $216MM worth of luxury-tax obligations on the ledger. That cash payroll mark is well shy of the $221MM at which they ended the 2022 season, while the current luxury level leaves about $17MM worth of breathing room before they’d be at risk of paying the tax for a second consecutive season. It should leave Bloom and his staff with some leeway as they continue to search for ways to augment the roster.

Chris Henrique of Beyond the Monster first reported the Red Sox and Duvall were nearing agreement. Craig Mish of SportsGrid reported it was a one-year, $7MM deal that could max out at $10MM. Chris Cotillo of MassLive was first with the incentive details.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Royals Optimistic About Re-Signing Zack Greinke

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Right-hander Zack Greinke signed with the Royals in 2022, returning to the club that drafted him in 2002 and for whom he pitched from 2004 through 2010. The club has reportedly been interested in bringing him back for 2023 since before the offseason even officially began. There’s now less than three weeks until Spring Training and Greinke is still unsigned but Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that the club still wants to re-sign him and is confident about their chances of doing so.

Greinke, 39, was once one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, especially in that earlier stint in Kansas City. The highlight of that tenure was a 2009 season where Greinke tossed 229 1/3 innings over 33 starts with a 2.16 ERA. That showing was strong enough for him to win the American League Cy Young award that year. Since then, he’s gone on to pitch for the Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros before returning to the Royals last season. He’s now tossed over 3,000 innings with a 3.42 ERA over his career.

Though he averaged just under 95 mph on his fastball when he first debuted, he’s gradually transitioned into a soft-tossing control artist. He averaged just over 89 mph on his heater last year, which ranked him 541st out of the 602 pitchers to throw at least 250 pitches, according to Statcast. Despite that diminished velocity, he still found ways to be quite effective on the mound. He made 26 starts and logged 137 frames in 2022, finishing the year with a 3.68 ERA. The pitching-friendly nature of Kauffman Stadium surely helped somewhat, but he also kept his walks down to a tiny 4.6% rate and was in the 60th percentile in terms of missing barrels.

Despite the ongoing interest from the club, a deal has yet to come together, perhaps for financial reasons. Reporting from a couple of weeks ago indicated the Royals were hoping to get Greinke back via some kind of incentive-laden deal, perhaps with a lower guarantee than in 2022, which was for $13MM plus $2MM of incentives. However, it’s possible that the club’s perspective on the financial situation has changed recently. Since that report, the club has agreed to terms with Aroldis Chapman on a deal with a $3.75MM guarantee, but also traded Michael A. Taylor to the Twins for minor leaguers and Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox for Josh Taylor. Michael A. Taylor is going to make $4.5MM this year while Mondesi will make $3.045MM and Josh Taylor $1.025MM. Those moves combined saved the club about $3MM in salary commitments, which they could perhaps then use to help get Greinke to put pen to paper. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $103MM, a jump from last year’s Opening Day figure of $95MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

If Greinke comes back to Kansas City for another year, he’ll hopefully provide some stability to a rotation that doesn’t currently have much of it. The club signed 32-year-old Jordan Lyles earlier in the offseason to give them one reliable veteran. Brady Singer should have another rotation spot spoken for after a breakout campaign last year. It seems like Ryan Yarbrough will be given a shot to grab a starting job after signing for a $3MM guarantee, though he spent a decent amount of time as a long reliever with the Rays and could be bumped back to that kind of role again. Brad Keller has lots of starting experience but got bumped to the bullpen in the second half of last year and finished with a 5.09 ERA for the season. Daniel Lynch was a 34th overall selection in the 2018 draft but has a 5.32 ERA for his career so far. It’s a similar story for other high draft picks like Kris Bubic and Jackson Kowar, who have career ERAs of 4.89 and 10.76, respectively.

No other clubs have been previously connected to Greinke this offseason besides the Royals, though Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports today that the Orioles spoke with him at one point. The O’s have been on the hunt for starting pitching all winter and are reportedly still looking for upgrades, though Rosenthal says they’re not confident about landing Greinke.

Brad Ausmus Reportedly Among Astros’ GM Finalists

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Earlier today, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Astros have at least three finalists for their GM vacancy: Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown, Guardians assistant GM James Harris and former Giants GM Bobby Evans. That’s not an exhaustive list, however, and Jose de Jesus Ortiz of Our Esquina tweets that former Astros catcher, Tigers/Angels manager and (most recently) A’s bench Brad Ausmus is also among the finalists. Per Ortiz, Brown and Ausmus are the two favorites for the job.

Jumping straight into the GM’s chair would be a first for Ausmus, though it wouldn’t be his first stint in a big league front office. Ausmus was a special assistant in the Padres’ front office shortly after retiring as a player, and he held a similar role with the 2018 Angels under then-general manager Billy Eppler.

Since retiring, however, the bulk of Ausmus’ experience in the game has come in a big league dugout. That includes a four-year stint as the Tigers’ manager from 2014-17 and a 2019 run as the Angels’ skipper. He spent the 2022 campaign as the bench coach under newly hired A’s skipper Mark Kotsay, but Ausmus turned down an offer from the team to return for a second season in that position. Ausmus’ decision to decline that offer came just a week before ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Ausmus traveled to Houston to meet with former teammate Jeff Bagwell, who’s been a key advisor to owner Jim Crane and has held some sway in the team’s baseball operations decisions.

At the same time, there are renewed connections with now-former Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns, who served as an assistant GM in Houston before being hired as the GM in Milwaukee more than a half decade ago. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that Crane has maintained some interest in bringing Stearns back to Houston.

As has been the case each time Stearns has been rumored as a potential fit for another front office vacancy — the Mets courted him in two separate offseasons, for instance — there are notable caveats to consider. While Stearns stepped down as president in Milwaukee, he remains under contract with the Brewers through the end of the 2023 season. He’s no longer running baseball operations but remains an advisor to newly minted GM Matt Arnold and owner Mark Attanasio.

Furthermore, Stearns appeared at the Brewers’ press conference to announce the reshuffling of the baseball operations hierarchy and plainly declared that he was “not going anywhere” and planned to remain in Milwaukee. That was several months ago, of course, and Stearns didn’t place a definitive timeline on a return to baseball operations — or even whether he planned to pursue such opportunities at all. However, because he’s under contract, the Brewers would need to grant the Astros permission to interview him, and Milwaukee may even require player compensation if Stearns were to depart prior to the conclusion of his contract.

The Astros have operated without a GM this offseason after parting ways with World Series-winning GM James Click following the season. Click rejected what many viewed as a token one-year extension offer that came on the heels of myriad reports about mounting friction between the GM and Crane.

Mets Designate Tayler Saucedo For Assignment

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The Mets have made their agreement with outfielder Tommy Pham official, announcing the signing today. In a corresponding move, left-hander Tayler Saucedo was designated for assignment, per Will Sammon of The Athletic.

Saucedo, 30 in June, was selected by the Blue Jays in the 21st round of the 2015 draft. He worked his way up to make his major league debut in 2021, posting a 4.56 ERA over 29 appearances. His 17.4% strikeout rate was well below league average but he got ground balls at an excellent 60.3% clip. In 2022, he made four appearances before landing on the injured list with a right hip injury. He began a rehab assignment in June but was kept in the minors for the rest of the year. He tossed 20 innings down on the farm with a 2.25 ERA and 35.3% strikeout rate, though his 11.8% walk rate was on the high side.

In November, the Mets grabbed him off waivers from the Jays and have held onto him for the past couple of months. They’ve been trying to patch together a bullpen for 2023 after Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodríguez and Mychal Givens all became free agents after 2022. Díaz and Ottavino have since been re-signed, while they’ve also acquired Brooks Raley and signed David Robertson. In terms of lefties, assuming Joey Lucchesi and David Peterson will be working as starters, this move now leaves Raley as the only left-handed reliever on the club’s roster.

The Mets will now have a week to trade Saucedo or pass him through waivers. His MLB track record is still fairly limited but left-handed relief is always in demand and there are plenty of clubs that make sense to add a little more depth there. Saucedo still has a couple of option years and could be easily shuttled between Triple-A and the majors. He also has less than two years of MLB service time and could thus be retained for the foreseeable future.

Astros Have Interviewed Guardians Assistant GM James Harris

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The Astros have spoken to Guardians assistant general manager James Harris about their vacant GM position, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Heyman calls Harris, Braves VP of scouting Dana Brown and former Giants GM Bobby Evans as three of the finalists for the post. It’s not clear how many names are still in the running, though former Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill has withdrawn his name from consideration.

Harris has been with Cleveland since 2016, when he was hired away from the Pirates organization to serve as the team’s director of player development. Prior to that, he’d spent a season as a special assistant to baseball operations with the Pirates and several prior years working with the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles and the University of Oregon’s football program. Over the past several seasons, he’s risen from director level to vice president to assistant GM in Cleveland. The 2022 season was his first following that promotion to assistant general manager.

Houston has been in the market for a new general manager since owner Jim Crane surprisingly made the decision to move on from now-former GM James Click following a World Series win. Reported friction between Crane and Click began to mount late in the season, and Click rejected what was widely regarded as a token one-year extension offer, prompting the formal split between the two parties. Assistant GM Scott Powers, who’d been hired by Click in Jan. 2022, was fired not long after Click’s departure.

Since that time, Crane has taken a sizable role in baseball operations, receiving input from remaining assistant GMs Andrew Ball, Bill Firkus and Charles Cook, in addition to special assistant Jeff Bagwell. There’s seemingly been no urgency to make a new hire to the GM’s chair — the vast majority of the team’s offseason dealings have already been completed — and the team hasn’t commented publicly on when a new hire might be made. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the aforementioned Brown is the current favorite for the job, but there are clearly still multiple candidates in the running.

Mike Clevinger Under Investigation For Domestic Violence Allegations

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2:25pm: The Padres provided a statement to Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. “We are aware of MLB’s investigation and completely support their efforts under the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy. Due to the ongoing investigative process, we cannot comment any further at this time.”

1:32pm: White Sox pitcher Mike Clevinger is under investigation by Major League Baseball following allegations of domestic violence involving the mother of his 10-month-old daughter and child abuse, per a report from Brittany Ghiroli and Katie Strang of The Athletic.

Per the report, Olivia Finestead, 24, has been in contact with MLB’s Department of Investigations since the summer. She says she has provided them with details of incidents involving physical, verbal and emotional abuse. In one such incident, she says Clevinger choked her and then, two weeks later, slapped her in a hotel room and threw used chewing tobacco on their child.

Clevinger was pitching for the Padres last year when the alleged incidents took place. That club has not provided a comment to The Athletic in relation to this story.

In December, the White Sox signed Clevinger to a one-year deal for 2023. They have told The Athletic they were not aware of the allegations at the time of that signing. “Major League Baseball and the Chicago White Sox take any and all allegations very seriously, and the White Sox are completely supportive of the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy shared by MLB and the MLBPA,” the White Sox said in a statement. “MLB opened an investigation after learning of these allegations. The White Sox were not aware of the allegations or the investigation at the time of his signing. The White Sox will refrain from comment until MLB’s investigative process has reached its conclusion.”

Under the provisions of the joint policy, the league has the authority to issue discipline regardless whether the player faces any criminal charge or conviction.

Marlins, Devin Smeltzer Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Marlins are in agreement with left-hander Devin Smeltzer on a minor league deal, reports Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase (Twitter link). The deal, which contains a non-roster invitation to Spring Training, would pay the ISE Baseball client at a $1MM rate for any time spent in the majors.

Smeltzer has pitched in the majors in each of the past four seasons with the Twins. He’s started 19 of 34 career outings, tallying 140 innings of 3.99 ERA ball at the highest level. Roughly half of that experience came last year, when he was tabbed for 12 starts and a trio of relief appearances that totaled 70 1/3 frames. Smeltzer pitched to a solid 3.71 ERA but without many whiffs or ground balls.

The 27-year-old struck out 13.9% of opponents on a modest 7.4% swinging strike rate. The lack of missed bats isn’t all that surprising for a pitcher who averaged 89.5 MPH on his fastball. Smeltzer compensates for his subpar velocity with strong control. He walked only 6.6% of opposing hitters last season and has doled out free passes at just a 6.4% clip for his MLB career. It was a similar story with Triple-A St. Paul, where he posted a 6.9% walk percentage against a better but hardly overwhelming 20.3% strikeout rate.

Smeltzer’s solid run prevention at the MLB level would’ve been hard to replicate. He benefited from a .252 batting average on balls in play while stranding nearly 83% of the baserunners he allowed. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA both pegged his work more in the 5.00 range than the sub-4.00 territory he actually managed, and the Twins ran him through outright waivers at the end of the season. Upon clearing, he qualified for minor league free agency.

The former fifth-round pick adds an experienced control specialist to the upper levels of the Miami organization. He owns a 4.40 ERA through parts of five minor league campaigns, walking just 5.5% of opponents along the way. He has experience both starting and working multiple innings out of the bullpen and could factor into either role at some point in 2023. Miami has a deep rotation mix even after trading Pablo López last week, so it seems likely Smeltzer will open the season with Triple-A Jacksonville. He’s out of minor league option years, meaning the Marlins would have to keep him in the majors or offer him to other teams via trade or waivers if he earns an MLB call at any point.

Phillies Sign Ben Bowden, Jeremy Walker, Mark Appel To Minor League Deals

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The Phillies announced a number of non-roster invitations to big league camp this morning. While most of that group was either already in the system or had previously been reported to have an agreement with Philadelphia, a trio of new names with MLB experience were among the batch: righties Jeremy Walker and Mark Appel, and left-hander Ben Bowden.

Walker, 27, has six big league appearances to his name. Those came with the Braves back in 2019, when he worked 9 1/3 innings of two-run ball out of Brian Snitker’s bullpen. Walker had posted a 3.97 ERA with quality peripherals that season for Triple-A Gwinnett and looked to be a potential middle relief option for Atlanta. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2020 season with a shoulder impingement and was released the following offseason.

The former 5th-round pick signed a minor league deal with the Giants shortly thereafter. He missed the entire ’21 season as well but returned to affiliated action last year. Walker made 28 appearances for San Francisco’s top affiliate, posting a 6.88 ERA over 35 1/3 innings in an extremely hitter-friendly environment. He had roughly average strikeout and walk marks and still attracted the interest of the Rays, who sent infielder Ford Proctor to San Francisco for Walker at the trade deadline. He closed out the year with 21 2/3 frames of 5.91 ERA ball for Tampa Bay’s top affiliate and didn’t get an MLB look before hitting minor league free agency.

Bowden also spent time in Triple-A with San Francisco and Tampa Bay last season. The 28-year-old began the season with the Rockies but landed in Tampa via waiver claim. The Rays successfully ran him through waivers and kept him in the minors before dealing him to San Francisco in late July. Between the three clubs, the Vanderbilt product posted a 5.46 ERA over 57 2/3 frames of relief. He punched out an excellent 29.9% of opposing hitters but had a similarly lofty 13.8% walk percentage.

A former second-round pick and Futures Game participant, Bowden has long tantalized with swing-and-miss stuff but struggled with shaky control in the minors. He’d spent his entire career in the Colorado organization prior to last year, reaching the majors in 2021. Bowden provided the Rox 35 2/3 innings of 6.56 ERA ball as a rookie, fanning 23.7% of opponents against an 11.9% walk rate. That’s his only MLB experience to date.

Appel is a more familiar name to Phillies fans. The former first overall pick looked as if he’d never reach the majors when he stepped away from the game after the 2017 season. He returned to the Philadelphia organization in 2021 and got another crack last year despite some initial rust. That paid off when Appel posted strong numbers at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In June, he secured his long-awaited big league call — making for one of the league’s better stories in 2022.

The 31-year-old allowed only two runs through his first 10 1/3 innings. He averaged 95 MPH on his sinker and racked up grounders at a massive 56.3% clip to put himself in the middle innings mix. That preceded an unfortunate battle with elbow inflammation that ended his season. At year’s end, Philadelphia ran Appel through waivers and sent him to free agency. He returns to the organization a few months later and will try to pitch his way back onto the 40-man roster.

Marlins Back Off Pursuit Of Yuli Gurriel

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The Marlins have scaled back their efforts to sign baseman Yuli Gurriel, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, who reports that they’ve “stopped any aggressive pursuit” of the former Astros infielder. MLB.com had reported over the weekend that the Marlins were “moving toward a deal” with the 38-year-old Gurriel. The addition of another first baseman remains possible, Mish adds, but Gurriel doesn’t appear likely to land with the Fish at this point.

It’s something of an about-face for a Marlins team that looked to be gearing up for the addition of a second premium contact hitter just days after acquiring Luis Arraez from the Twins. Gurriel has fanned in just 11.2% of his 3305 Major League plate appearances since signing with the Astros in 2016; this past season’s 12.5% strikeout rate was a career-high for Gurriel, but it was also still more than ten percentage points better than the league average.

The Marlins reportedly had interest in using Gurriel at multiple positions, bouncing him between first base, second base and third base. That’d be a change for Gurriel, who outside of two innings at the hot corner in 2021, has been exclusively a first baseman for each of the past three seasons. Gurriel generally has a strong defensive track record, though metrics like Defensive Runs Saved (-2) and Outs Above Average (-9) soured on him in 2022 just one year after he won a Gold Glove in 2021.

If Miami is still seeking another option at first base, the free-agent market has largely been picked over but still has a few options. Old friend Jesus Aguilar remains unsigned, as do sluggers Luke Voit and Miguel Sano. Like Gurriel, all three are in search of a rebound campaign from lackluster performances and/or injury. Miami currently projects for a $103MM payroll, per Roster Resource, which would be only the third time topping $100MM in franchise history. It’s not clear just how much Miami has left to spend, though their weekend link to Gurriel clearly suggests there’s at least a bit of payroll capacity left.

It’s been a generally quiet winter with regard to Gurriel, although Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reported over the weekend that the Twins were also in the mix to acquire his services. It’s not clear at this time if the dwindling talks with Miami are reflective of progress on the Twins’ behalf.

Minnesota added another right-handed bat last night when acquiring Michael A. Taylor from the Royals, though Gurriel would give them another contact-oriented infield bat to help offset Arraez’s departure. Former top prospect Alex Kirilloff seems likely to handle first base for the Twins in 2023 — assuming he’s recovered from a pair of wrist surgeries (one in 2021 and another in 2022). Gurriel would give them an experienced righty bat to pair with the lefty-hitting Kirilloff, and he could mix in at designated hitter as well, where Minnesota currently looks like they’ll cycle through a number of options.

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