Jesús Luzardo Drawing Trade Interest
8:57pm: In a separate column, Rosenthal reports that Miami and the Royals discussed the framework of a trade that would’ve sent the southpaw to Kansas City and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino to South Florida during the Winter Meetings. It doesn’t appear that those conversations are still going, as the Royals instead addressed their rotation with free agent adds of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.
Pasqunatino, who owns a .272/.355/.444 slash in 558 career plate appearances, saw his second big league season cut short by surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right shoulder. He remains under team control for five years.
12:28pm: Marlins left-hander Jesús Luzardo is drawing trade interest, per a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
The Miami rotation has been a frequent nexus point of rumors in recent years, which has continued into this winter. Just last month, Rosenthal reported on the same concept, highlighting Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers as possible trade candidates. At that time, Rosenthal portrayed Luzardo as likely off-limits, but his report from today seems to suggest it may not be totally off the table after all.
Rosenthal suggests that Peter Bendix, the club’s new president of baseball operations, might have more willingness to consider a trade than now-former general manager Kim Ng. As Rosenthal points out, Bendix came to the Marlins from the Rays, a club that has generally been unafraid to trade players at peak value. For instance, in 2018, they traded Chris Archer to the Pirates for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz. They later sent Meadows to the Tigers for Isaac Paredes and are in the process of trading Glasnow to the Dodgers at this very moment.
If Bendix has any intention of bringing a similar operating style to Miami, then considering a Luzardo deal can become plausible in that light. He has three years of club control remaining, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $5.9MM in 2024. He will be due raises in the two following seasons before he’s slated to reach free agency after 2026. Since he’s going to get more expensive as his control dwindles, his trade value right now is likely as high as it will get.
Of course, beyond the contractual situation, there is the on-field stuff to consider. Luzardo posted a 3.32 earned run average in 18 starts last year, then a 3.58 ERA in 32 starts here in 2023. He struck out 28.7% of batters faced over those two years while walking just 7.9% and keeping 40.1% of balls in play on the ground. That kind of performance, along with his relatively modest salary and years of control, should combine to give him a tremendous amount of trade value.
But that also makes him incredibly valuable to the Marlins and it’s worth pointing out that their situation is more precarious than in past years. Sandy Alcántara underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of the most recent season and is slated to miss all of 2024. The club also subtracted Pablo López from the mix by flipping him to the Twins last offseason. If they were to trade Luzardo, they would be down to Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers and Max Meyer.
Pérez and Garrett make for a strong front two, but Pérez might be on a workload limit next year due to his youth and quick ascent. Cabrera has significant control problems while Rogers struggled in 2022 and then missed almost all of 2023 due to injury. Meyer has just two MLB starts and missed all of 2023 due to his own TJS. The club is reportedly planning to stretch out relievers A.J. Puk and George Soriano in the spring but there’s no guarantee that transition will work.
Given the uncertainty in the rotation, they may not want to subtract a talented pitcher like Luzardo, and there’s nothing to suggest they are actively shopping him. But if the right offer comes in, the club may have to consider it. Roster Resource currently projects the club’s 2024 payroll at $98MM. Bruce Sherman bought the team at the end of 2017 and, per the data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we can see the club’s Opening Day payroll dropped from $115MM that year to $100MM the year after. It hasn’t been higher than $93MM since.
The club could use some upgrades to its lineup, particularly in the middle infield, and may not have many resources available to do so. Even if they were willing to spend a bit more money, the best free agents available are guys like Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. While trading a pitcher would come with the risk of further weakening the rotation, it’s possible it could be their best path forward. Clubs like the Reds, Twins, Rays, Cardinals and Orioles are flush with position players and could use some pitching, perhaps allowing them to line up with the Marlins.
Mets Showing Interest In Justin Turner
The Mets have been engaged with representatives for free agent corner infielder Justin Turner, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. They join the Diamondbacks and incumbent Red Sox among the teams known to be in the mix for the 39-year-old.
Turner spent three and a half seasons in Queens over a decade ago. At the time, he looked like a versatile but unexceptional infielder. After hitting .265/.326/.370 as a Met, Turner caught on with the Dodgers for the 2014 campaign. That change of scenery and an overhauled swing launched Turner to stardom. He raked at a .296/.375/.490 clip in nine seasons with Los Angeles before signing with Boston an offseason ago.
Despite his age, Turner remains a very good hitter. In 626 plate appearances, he hit .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs. Turner kept his strikeout percentage to a modest 17.6% clip with solid power and plate discipline. The righty-hitting Turner had dramatic platoon splits last season, particularly from a slugging perspective, but he traditionally fares as well or better against same-handed pitching.
While Turner hasn’t shown many signs of decline in the batter’s box, his defensive responsibilities have waned. In his final season as a Dodger, he spent an equal amount of time at third base and designated hitter. Turner didn’t see much defensive work in Boston, starting 98 times at DH. He manned the hot corner on seven occasions, picked up four starts at second, and opened 35 contests at first base. That’s in part because the Sox have Rafael Devers and Triston Casas at the infield corners. Yet it’s also a question how heavy a defensive workload Turner can handle at this stage of his career.
That shouldn’t be a concern for the Mets. Turner wouldn’t see much first base action barring an injury to Pete Alonso. New York doesn’t have proven solutions at third base or DH, however. Young hitters Brett Baty and Mark Vientos project as the respective starters. Both are formerly well-regarded prospects, yet neither has produced at the big league level thus far.
President of baseball operations David Stearns said at the Winter Meetings that the Mets weren’t looking for a third baseman. That preceded an unfortunate ACL tear for young infielder Ronny Mauricio, who’d seemed a strong candidate for the third base job before his winter ball injury. Whether that changes the calculus for Stearns and the front office isn’t clear, although Turner could fit at DH even if the Mets wanted to give Baty the hot corner.
MLBTR predicted a one-year, $16MM contract for Turner. The Mets have made clear their primary focus is the 2025 campaign, but they’re not prepared to concede the ’24 season. There’s a need for at least one middle-of-the-order offensive presence in addition to the rotation questions that have been the organization’s focus so far.
Giants Considering Trading From Group Of Young Pitchers
The Giants are entertaining the idea of trading from their group of young and controllable pitching prospects, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He says that signing a veteran will make it more likely but it’s a path they are already considering. As for who is in this group that Rosenthal is referring to, he lists lefties Kyle Harrison and Carson Whisenhunt as well as righties Tristan Beck, Keaton Winn, Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong.
The rotation in San Francisco doesn’t look like a strength right now. They recently had Alex Wood and Jakob Junis reach free agency, with Sean Manaea following them by opting out of his contract. The club picked up their option on Alex Cobb, but he’s going to miss at least the first month or so of the season due to hip surgery.
That leaves the club with Logan Webb and a number of questions. Anthony DeSclafani has dealt with ankle, shoulder and elbow injuries over the past two seasons, limiting him 118 2/3 innings of fairly ineffective work. Ross Stripling posted a 5.36 ERA in his 89 innings this year. Harrison debuted in 2023 but has just 34 2/3 innings of major league experience, in which he allowed eight home runs. Winn and Beck also debuted but they also have limited workloads so far and less prospect hype than Harrison.
None of Black, Whisenhunt nor Birdsong are on the 40-man roster, but Black has reached Triple-A and the latter two have made it to the Double-A level. Baseball America currently lists Whisenhunt as the club’s #5 prospect, Black at #8 and Birdsong at #12.
There is a lot of potential in that group but very few sure things. Subtracting someone from the flock would be a risk, but Rosenthal frames it as something that might need to be considered in order to add young, athletic position players.
On the whole, the club’s defense wasn’t strong in 2023. Their collective -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -17.1 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating were both in the bottom third of the league. Outs Above Average was a bit more bullish, giving them a +15, but it’s perhaps worth pointing out that Thairo Estrada alone had a +20. Brandon Crawford, now a free agent, was second on the club with +6.
President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi stated at the start of the offseason that upgrading the outfield defense was a priority. Since then, the club signed one of the youngest free agents available in 25-year-old Jung Hoo Lee. Perhaps further outfield changes could be considered, with bat-first guys like Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger still in the mix for playing time.
Zaidi also said that Marco Luciano will have the chance to take over the shortstop position to replace Crawford, but then later said that they would still consider bringing in depth because “it makes sense for us to have some insurance.”
Generally speaking, finding young and athletic players in free agency is hard to do. Since it takes six years of service time to reach the open market, most players don’t get there until close to or after their 30th birthday. With the Giants looking to get younger and more athletic, it makes sense that they jumped at the chance to sign Lee, but he was a unique exception since he was coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization.
If the Giants are looking for another young player to help with their athleticism, free agency offers limited options. That’s particularly true of the shortstop position, where Tim Anderson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are some of the standouts. Teams like the Reds, Twins, Rays, Cardinals and Orioles have lots of position players and could be willing to make a deal, but they would all likely be looking for young and controllable pitching in return.
As with any potential trade scenarios, the chances of something getting done will ultimately depend on the offers coming the other way. It will also depend upon the other paths the Giants pursue. They have been connected to starting pitching upgrades, including reported interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Yariel Rodríguez. They have also had some interest in free agent position players like Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger. There are still many moving pieces but it seems as though there’s a non-zero chance of them making some young and controllable pitchers available, which will surely intrigue many rival clubs around the league.
Braves Acquire Matt Carpenter, Ray Kerr From Padres
7:12pm: San Diego is including $1.5MM in cash, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic (on X).
6:48pm: The Padres and Braves have agreed to a trade, per announcements from both clubs. Designated hitter Matt Carpenter, left-hander Ray Kerr and cash considerations are heading to Atlanta in exchange for minor league outfielder Drew Campbell.
Carpenter, 38, had a multi-year run of success with the Cardinals but his production dipped towards the end of the previous decade, to the point where he hit just .169/.305/.275 in 2021. He made a concerted effort to revamp his swing before 2022 and it seemed to work. He hit an astounding .305/.412/.727 for the Yankees in 2022, but in just 47 games before he fouled a ball off his foot and had his season ended by a fracture.
The Padres decided to bank on that bounceback, signing him to a two-year deal going into 2023. That guaranteed $12MM and allowed him to opt out after the first season. He couldn’t keep that magic run with the Yankees going, as his time as a Padre resulted in a line of just .176/.322/.319. As a player who saw all of his time at either designated hitter or first base, the complete lack of offensive productivity put Carpenter on the fringe of the roster.
San Diego kept him on the roster all season. Carpenter made the easy decision to exercise his $5.5MM player option. That’s not an outrageous sum but clearly beyond what San Diego wanted to devote to a player on the bubble. The Friars have spent much of the offseason cutting payroll. It’s unclear how much of the Carpenter deal for which the Padres remain responsible after accounting for the cash considerations, but they’ll offload some portion of the money in exchange for sending Kerr to Atlanta.
A 29-year-old reliever, Kerr was acquired from Seattle as part of the Adam Frazier deal over the 2021-22 offseason. The 6’3″ southpaw has pitched in 29 MLB games over the past two seasons, most of which came this year. Kerr owns a 5.06 ERA in 32 innings, but he has shown a promising arsenal. He has punched out an above-average 28.1% of batters faced at the highest level. Kerr fanned 29% of opponents while pitching to a stellar 2.25 ERA in 36 Triple-A frames last season.
Kerr has atypical velocity for a left-hander. He averaged 96 MPH on his heater and a solid 82.5 MPH on a curveball in his MLB time this year. That resulted in an excellent 14.7% swinging strike percentage. He has never consistently harnessed that power stuff, however. Kerr walked nearly 10% of opponents in the majors and over 11% of batters faced in Triple-A. Over parts of six minor league seasons, he owns an 11.6% walk percentage.
With less than one year of major league service, Kerr is at least two years away from arbitration. He still has a minor league option remaining, so the Braves can keep him at Triple-A Gwinnett for another season. Kerr slots in behind A.J. Minter, recent trade pickup Aaron Bummer, Tyler Matzek and Dylan Lee on the lefty relief depth chart.
Atlanta has shown a willingness to take on part or all of other teams’ undesirable contracts to acquire players of interest. They took on money in the Marco Gonzales and Evan White deals to bring in Jarred Kelenic from Seattle. They subsequently offloaded Gonzales to the Pirates and flipped White to the Angels as part of a deal that brought in David Fletcher and the Max Stassi contract, which they subsequently paid down to deal the catcher to the White Sox.
It’s fair to wonder if they’ll look to move Carpenter as well. For now, he projects as a left-handed bench bat. Atlanta is in the the second tier of luxury penalization and will be second-time payors next year. They’ll therefore pay a 42% tax on whatever portion of the Carpenter contract they’re assuming.
San Diego also adds the 26-year-old Campbell. He was a 23rd round pick in 2019 out of Louisville. A left-handed hitter, Campbell posted a modest .254/.307/.404 slash in 300 plate appearances as a 25-year-old in Double-A. He can play all three outfield spots but spent more time in a corner this year. After going unselected in the Rule 5 draft, he’s likely to start the season in Triple-A.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Pirates Designate Roddery Munoz For Assignment
The Pirates announced they’ve designated right-hander Roddery Muñoz for assignment. Pittsburgh needed a 40-man roster spot after finalizing their signing of first baseman Rowdy Tellez and trade pickup of Edward Olivares from Kansas City.
Pittsburgh claimed Muñoz off waivers from the Nationals two weeks ago. Washington had snagged him off waivers from the Braves in July. Muñoz has yet to appear in a major league game. While he was briefly added to the MLB roster in Atlanta, his number was never called. He struggled in the upper minors this year, combining for a 5.42 ERA through 78 innings in the Braves and Nats systems.
He punched out 23% of opponents but walked a massive 15% of batters faced. Prospect evaluators have credited the 23-year-old with a mid-upper 90s fastball and a promising slider. He needs to take a significant step forward with his strike-throwing to carve out a big league bullpen spot. The Pirates will have a week to trade Muñoz or attempt to slip him through waivers.
Pirates Acquire Edward Olivares From Royals
The Royals have traded outfielder Edward Olivares to the Pirates for minor league infielder Deivis Nadal, according to team announcements. Kansas City needed to clear a 40-man roster spot after their previously-reported deal with right-hander Chris Stratton.
Olivares, 28 in March, will be joining the fourth organization of his career. An international signing of the Blue Jays, he was traded to the Padres as part of the 2018 Yangervis Solarte trade and then to the Royals as part of the 2020 Trevor Rosenthal deal.
He got to play in the big leagues in a part-time role from 2020 to 2022 but got his most extensive action in the most recent campaign. He got into 107 games with the Royals in 2023, hitting 12 home runs and stealing 11 bases. He only walked in 5.7% of his plate appearances but he also limited his strikeouts to a 16.6% clip. His overall batting line of .263/.317/.452 translated to a wRC+ of 105, indicating he was a bit above league average.
That season matches a lot of his career. He doesn’t walk much but also doesn’t have terrible strikeout rates. He has a bit of power but nothing astounding. His highest home run total is the 20 he hit in 2021, 15 in Triple-A and five in the majors. He has speed, with Statcast putting him in the 83rd percentile, but doesn’t steal a ton of bases and his glovework has been graded poorly. He has career tallies of -15 Outs Above Average, -21 Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of -7.9 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His arm strength is considered to be in the 90th percentile.
There are some intriguing tools in there, which is surely why so many clubs have taken a chance on him. But there are also some warts, which is probably why he has bounced around a bit. He qualified for arbitration for the first time this winter, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a salary of $1.8MM. The Royals tendered him a contract but it seems he was on the roster bubble. The club agreed to a deal with Hunter Renfroe today, adding him into an outfield mix that also includes Nelson Velázquez, MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters and Dairon Blanco.
For the Pirates, they have Jack Suwinski and Bryan Reynolds in two outfield spots but one of them is fairly wide open. Catcher Endy Rodríguez recently underwent UCL/flexor tendon surgery, opening the catcher spot for Henry Davis to perhaps get a lengthy audition there. Joshua Palacios, Connor Joe, Ji Hwan Bae and Canaan Smith-Njigba are on the roster and options to slot next to Reynolds and Suwinski.
Joe will probably bounce between first base, the outfield and the designated hitter spot, while none of the others have established themselves at the major league level. Olivares will be jockeying with them all for playing time, but he still has an option if he loses out.
Nadal, 22 in February, has played the three infield positions to the left of first base and each outfield spot as well. He has spent each of the past two seasons playing in Single-A. In 2023, he struck out in 33% of his plate appearances but also walked at a 15.1% clip and stole 33 bases. His .212/.344/.377 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 101.
The Royals still have to make their deals with Renfroe and Michael Wacha official, so they will need to open two more roster spots.
Anne Rogers of MLB.com first reported the trade terms.
Pirates Sign Rowdy Tellez
The Pirates announced the signing of first baseman Rowdy Tellez on a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $3.2MM guarantee. Tellez, who is represented by Primo Sports Group, can earn an additional $800K in incentives.
Tellez has spent the past two and a half seasons in the NL Central as a member of the Brewers. He connected on 35 home runs as recently as 2022. Tellez’s power numbers evaporated last season, as he slumped to 13 longballs through 351 trips to the plate. His slugging percentage fell from .461 to a fringy .376 mark.
Overall, the left-handed hitter turned in a .215/.291/.376 line in 106 contests this year. That’s clearly insufficient for a player whose profile is built around the bat. Tellez doesn’t offer any baserunning value and rates as a below-average defender at first base. Combined with his career-worst showing in the batter’s box, he was below replacement level in 2023.
Pittsburgh takes a low-cost roll of the dice to see if Tellez can recapture some of his previous form. He carried a career .236/.307/.462 line into last season. While that’s still middling production from an average and on-base perspective, he’d shown legitimate power upside. Tellez’s 2023 numbers may have been impacted somewhat by health questions. He lost a couple weeks in July with right forearm inflammation before sustaining a fracture on the ring finger of his left hand in an outfield collision while chasing fly balls during batting practice. That kept him out of action until the middle of August.
The 28-year-old was eligible for arbitration for a final time this offseason. Milwaukee declined to tender him a contract at a projected $5.9MM salary. He’ll indeed come up shy of that figure on the open market but he’ll get a big league opportunity for a rebound showing. Tellez will surpass six years of service time next season and return to free agency at year’s end.
Pittsburgh had a clear need for first base help. The Bucs trade Carlos Santana at the deadline, sending the veteran switch-hitter to Milwaukee in a move that was necessitated for the Brewers by Tellez’s struggles and injuries. Pittsburgh relied mostly on Alfonso Rivas down the stretch; they waived him at season’s end and lost him to the Guardians. Santana returned to free agency, leaving the potential for a reunion, but the Bucs will take what is likely to be a lower-cost shot on Tellez instead.
A left-handed hitter, Tellez seems a likely platoon partner for Connor Joe. The latter produced a .265/.365/.452 showing against left-handed pitching last year. Tellez owns a .231/.302/.464 career slash versus righty arms.
Pittsburgh’s player payroll is up to roughly $58MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The Bucs opened the ’23 season around $73MM. GM Ben Cherington said at the Winter Meetings the team anticipates surpassing last year’s spending level. That could leave $20MM+ in further space for the front office, which’ll likely look for a mid-rotation arm and perhaps second base help in the coming weeks.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Pirates were in agreement with Tellez. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported it was a one-year deal that guaranteed roughly $3MM and maxed out at $4MM with incentives. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette specified the $3.2MM guarantee.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
David McKinnon Signs With KBO’s Samsung Lions
Former Angels and Athletics corner infielder David MacKinnon has signed with the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization, the team announced. Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency tweets that MacKinnon is guaranteed $1MM on the deal — a $900K salary and $100K signing bonus.
MacKinnon, who turns 29 today, was a 32nd-round pick by the Angels in 2017 and made a brief big league debut in 2022, appearing in 22 games and taking 57 turns at the plate between Anaheim and Oakland. He posted a tepid .140/.228/.140 slash in that tiny sample, but MacKinnon has posted a hearty .294/.412/.464 slash in his minor league career — including a gaudy .318/.416/.585 output in his 2022 Triple-A run between the Angels and A’s organizations.
That minor league production led to interest from Japan last offseason, and MacKinnon spent the ’23 campaign playing for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Seibu Lions. He batted .259/.327/.401 and swatted 15 homers in 514 plate appearances there, and he’ll now jump to the KBO and continue to earn at a rate that vastly outpaces anything he’d earned as a late-round draft flier and career minor leaguer.
Athletics, Gerardo Reyes Agree To Minor League Deal
The A’s signed right-handed reliever Gerardo Reyes to a minor league contract, per their transaction log at MLB.com. Presumably, he’ll be in big league camp this spring and vie for a spot in a wide-open bullpen mix.
Reyes, 30, has pitched 37 2/3 big league innings between the Padres and Angels, including 9 2/3 frames with the Halos this past season. He owns a career 7.41 ERA in that time but has averaged 96.7 mph on his heater and fanned 27% of his opponents. Walks (11.2%) and home runs (1.43 HR/9) have both been issues for the hard-throwing righty, but Reyes has a decent track record in a hitter-friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League (4.25 ERA, 30% strikeout rate). FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked him among the Angels’ top 30 prospects in 2021, writing that arm strength and fastball movement alone gave him a chance to be a big league reliever.
Oakland isn’t going to be a choice destination for many free agents with the team clearly focused more on its pending move to Las Vegas than actually building a competitive roster for the 2024 season. But for a live-armed reliever like Reyes, who’s had a couple decent Triple-A seasons and is looking for a shot at a role in the majors, the A’s probably hold some appeal. Oakland’s only three relievers with even two years of MLB service are Sean Newcomb, Zach Jackson and Dany Jimenez. There’s virtually no certainty in the Athletics’ relief corps right now, so if Reyes were to show well in spring training or early in the Triple-A campaign, there’d be little standing in his way to a shot in the big leagues.
Tigers Re-Sign Trey Wingenter To Minor League Deal
The Tigers have re-signed right-hander Trey Wingenter to a minor league deal with an invite to major league Spring Training, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. The righty will make a base salary of $1.2MM if he cracks the roster.
Wingenter, 30 in April, has shown big strikeout stuff in his career but also battled injuries, with those storylines carrying into 2023. He signed a minor league deal with the Tigers last winter as well and cracked the club’s Opening Day roster. But after just six appearances, he landed on the injured list due to tendinitis in his throwing shoulder and wasn’t activated until about three months later.
He ultimately tossed 17 innings for the Tigers with a 5.82 earned run average in that small sample. He struck out 28.9% of batters faced while walking just 9.2%, and he also kept 43.2% of balls in play on the ground. A .333 batting average on balls in play and 64.7% strand rate led to some more runs crossing the board, hence his 3.96 FIP and 3.43 SIERA. He was outrighted off the roster in November and elected free agency.
Prior to the 2023 season, Wingenter didn’t pitch in the majors at all from 2020-2022, due to Tommy John surgery and a couple of of back surgeries. Prior to that, he pitched for the Padres, striking out roughly a third of batters faced in 2018 and 2019.
He’ll now returns to the Tigers and provide them with some non-roster depth. If he’s healthy and in good form, he could earn himself a roster spot, just as he did in 2023. If he does, he still has an option remaining and just over four years of service time. If he’s on the roster at the end of next season, the Tigers will have the ability to retain him via arbitration for 2025.