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Mets Sign José Quintana To Two-Year Deal

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December 9: The Mets have officially announced the signing.

December 7: The Mets and left-hander José Quintana are in agreement on a two-year, $26MM contract, pending a physical. He will make even salaries of $13MM in each season.

Quintana, 34 in January, was a remarkably steady and consistent member of the White Sox rotation in his first five seasons. He debuted in 2012 with 22 starts, three relief appearances and a 3.76 ERA. For the next four seasons, he made at least 32 starts in each campaign while keeping his ERA between 3.51 and 3.20.

Unfortunately, he hit a few rough patches after that, as his ERA ticked up over 4.00 for three straight campaigns from 2017 to 2019, with Quintana getting traded across town to the Cubs in that time. A thumb injury in 2020 limited him to just 10 innings pitched in the shortened campaign. He signed with the Angels for 2021 but was shelled in nine starts to begin the year and got moved to the bullpen.

Jose Quintana | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsFor 2022, the rebuilding Pirates took a flier on Quintana with a one-year, $2MM deal. The hope was that he would return to form, provide some veteran stability for their young rotation and perhaps turn himself into a trade chip by the deadline. That plan could hardly have gone much better, as the southpaw made 20 starts for the Bucs, posting a 3.50 ERA. His 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit below average, but he paired that with strong walk and ground ball rates of 7.2% and 45%, respectively. He and Chris Stratton were dealt to the Cardinals at the deadline and Quintana continued his strong campaign in St. Louis. He made another 12 starts with a 2.01 ERA, finishing the year with a 2.93 mark across 32 starts and 165 2/3 innings.

Quintana was then able to return to free agency in a much stronger position than his previous trips. In addition to his strong platform season, his midseason trade made him ineligible for a qualifying offer and his age made it unlikely that he would be able to pursue a lengthy contract. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $24MM deal, with Quintana eventually nudging just barely beyond that.

For the Mets, they were facing a great deal of turnover on their pitching staff, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker reaching free agency, along with several relievers. deGrom has since joined the Rangers and Walker the Phillies. The Mets effectively replaced deGrom by signing Verlander and have now added Quintana to take a role in the middle or back of the rotation. That gives the Mets a front four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Quintana. They have some internal options to take the fifth spot, such as David Peterson and Tylor Megill, but it’s also possible that they continue to pursue external additions.

This signing brings the club’s payroll to $290MM for next year, according to Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $301MM. It’s unclear exactly how much they plan on spending by the time the dust has settled, but owner Steve Cohen has previously floated $300MM as a ballpark figure, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. In terms of the luxury tax, they are already beyond the fourth and highest tier of penalization, which will be $293MM next year. As a second-time payor, they are subject to escalating penalties, meaning they will pay a 30% tax on the spending between $233-253MM, 42% between $253-273MM, 75% between $273-293MM and 90% above the top tier.

Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported that Quintana would join the Mets at $26MM over two years. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first added that it would break down into even salaries of $13MM in each year.

Athletics To Sign Jace Peterson

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December 9: Peterson will be paid $9.5MM on the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

December 6: The A’s have agreed to a two-year deal with utilityman Jace Peterson, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link).  The contract will become official when Peterson passes a physical.  Peterson is represented by ISE Baseball.

Except for catcher, the versatile Peterson has played at every position on the diamond during his nine MLB seasons, even tossing four innings of mop-up work in blowout games.  Most of Peterson’s experience has come at second base and third base, and the hot corner was essentially his primary position (86 appearances) with the Brewers in 2022.  It seems quite possible third base could again be Peterson’s main landing spot in Oakland, depending on how much the A’s want to use other options as Vimael Machin or Kevin Smith.  However, Peterson’s multi-positional ability gives manager Mark Kotsay plenty of options in juggling playing time.

Though the two-year contract gives Peterson some extra security, it is probably fair to assume that the rebuilding Athletics will still be open to shopping the veteran prior to the trade deadline.  Still, the two-year commitment indicates the value the A’s see in having a player who can plug so many roster holes, especially since Oakland probably isn’t done shaking up its roster.  The A’s might have had to offer that second guaranteed year to beat the market for Peterson, given how he is the type of valuable bench depth that would fit on many teams, both contenders and non-contenders.

Peterson (who turns 33 in May) showed his worth over three seasons in Milwaukee, helping the Brewers reach the postseason twice.  Not only was Peterson able to step in when Brewers starters were injured, but he also showed some pop at the plate, hitting a respectable .238/.337/.373 (98 wRC+) over 691 plate appearances with the Crew.  Peterson was also a quietly excellent baserunner, stealing 23 bases in 25 tries and rating highly on Fangraphs’ baserunning metrics.

Once Peterson passes his physical, the A’s will officially have a player under contract for the 2023 season.  It speaks to the depths of Oakland’s rebuild that not a single player on their roster is technically guaranteed money, as the roster is comprised of arbitration-eligible players and mostly pre-arb players.  The Athletics are naturally not going to be big spenders in any regard this winter, and it seems likely that any expenditures will be relatively lower-cost veteran additions like Peterson.

Rangers Designate A.J. Alexy For Assignment

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The Rangers announced their signing of left-hander Andrew Heaney, making it official. To make room on their 40-man roster, they designated right-hander A.J. Alexy for assignment. Additionally, the club announced that they have re-signed catcher David Garcia, left-hander Lucas Jacobsen and right-hander Nick Snyder to minor league deals.

Alexy, 25 in April, was a Dodgers draftee who came to the Rangers via the Yu Darvish trade in 2017. He subsequently moved his way up the minor league ranks, but missed much of 2019 due to injury and didn’t pitch at all in 2020 due to the pandemic wiping out the minors that year. Regardless, the Rangers liked him enough to add him to their 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 draft in late 2020.

He got back on track with a nice season in 2021, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A. Over 65 innings on the farm in 10 starts and six relief appearances, he had a 1.66 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. That was enough to get him a promotion to the big leagues late in the year. In 2022, Alexy made four MLB appearances but was torched for an ERA of 11.57. He tossed 96 innings in Triple-A but posted a 5.91 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate.

The Rangers have been aggressively upgrading their pitching staff this offseason, re-signing Martin Perez and trading for Jake Odorizzi before signing Jacob deGrom and Heaney. All those additions have pushed their other options down the depth chart and it seems that Alexy has been nudged out of their plans. It’s possible that he could garner interest from other clubs, as he’s still quite young and has shown flashes of quality in the past. He also still has an option remaining so he wouldn’t even require a spot on an active roster. The Rangers will have one week to work out a trade, place him on waivers or release him.

As for the three minor league signees, Garcia was selected to the club’s 40-man roster at the same time as Alexy but has yet to play at even the Triple-A level. Jacobsen has yet to crack a 40-man roster. Snyder has very brief MLB experience, tossing 4 2/3 innings over the past couple of seasons. He tossed 38 Triple-A innings in 2022 with a 4.97 ERA with a 30.9% strikeout rate but a 10.9% walk rate.

Mets Still Interested In Kodai Senga After Recent Signings

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It was reported about three weeks ago that the Mets had a sit-down meeting with Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga. Since then, the club has been very busy, giving $86.66MM to Justin Verlander, $162MM to Brandon Nimmo, $26MM to Jose Quintana and $10MM to David Robertson. Despite all of that, Andy Martino of SNY reports that Senga is still an option for the club.

From a baseball perspective, the club’s continued interest in Senga is quite logical. The Mets saw three pitchers depart their rotation at the end of the 2022 season, as Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all reached free agency. deGrom and Walker have already found new homes with the Rangers and Phillies, respectively, but the Mets have replaced them with Verlander and Quintana. With those two slotted next to Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco, they have a solid front four, with options for the final slot like David Peterson or Tylor Megill.

However, the Mets seem to have no limits on either their desire to improve nor their ability to spend money to do so. Their 2023 payroll is already up to an incredible $322MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $335MM. These are unprecedented levels and it doesn’t seem like we’ve reached their limit.

Senga was predicted by MLBTR to earn a contract of $75MM over five years, or $15MM per season. The market has proven to be incredibly strong compared to expectations this year, so it’s entirely possible he ends up eclipsing those numbers. Still, even if we stick to those projections for a second, the extra cost for the Mets will be significant. Since the Mets also paid the CBT in 2022, they will be second-time payors in 2023, which will come with added taxes. For any spending beyond the top CBT tier of $293MM, they will be paying a 90% tax. They are already well beyond that, so paying Senga even a $15MM salary will also lead to a $13.5MM tax, meaning they’d effectively be paying $28.5MM in order to obtain Senga’s services for this year.

That would certainly be quite a financial commitment to make, though it doesn’t seem the Mets are really bothered about pinching pennies at this point, simply going after whoever they want to go after. Targeting Senga makes sense as he’s perhaps the top free agent starting pitcher remaining outside of Carlos Rodón. Featuring a triple-digit heater and an excellent splitter, Senga posted a a 1.94 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate through 144 innings in the NPB this year. It wasn’t just a one-year fluke either, as he had a 2.39 ERA over his past four seasons combined.

Though the Mets seem plenty willing to spend on their desired players, they will at least have some competition here. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Padres, Giants, Yankees and Mariners are other teams that have been connected to his market, with plenty of others surely at the table as well. But despite being in uncharted financial waters, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to count out the Mets from another splash.

Angels Pursued Willson Contreras Prior To Cardinals Deal

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In recent days, it was reported that the Cardinals and Astros had each given multi-year offers to catcher Willson Contreras, with the Cardinals eventually winning the bidding by giving him five-year, $87.5MM deal. However, there was one other team apparently at the table, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Angels were one of the teams outbid by the Cards.

The Angels have been fairly active so far this offseason, adding to their pitching staff by signing Tyler Anderson for their rotation and Carlos Estévez for their bullpen, while adding Gio Urshela to their infield and Hunter Renfroe to their outfield. It seems they are still hoping to make further moves, but the fact that they pursued a catcher like Contreras is at least mildly surprising since that doesn’t stand out as the club’s most obvious weak spot.

Max Stassi had a nice breakout for the Halos over 2020 and 2021, getting into 118 games and hitting .250/.333/.452 for a wRC+ of 113, indicating he was 13% better than league average. When combined with his strong glovework, he produced 3.6 wins above replacement over that time, according to FanGraphs. With Stassi set to reach free agency after 2022, the club signed him to an extension that went through 2024 with an club option for 2025. Unfortunately, he had a dismal campaign in 2022, hitting just .180/.267/.303. He probably deserved better than that, however, as his .239 batting average on balls in play was below his .276 career mark and well below his .325 from 2021. With another two guaranteed seasons on his deal, he’s sure to be in the mix somehow with a chance to bounce back.

Then there’s also Logan O’Hoppe, who came over from the Phillies in the deadline deal that sent Brandon Marsh to Philadelphia. Between the two clubs, he annihilated Double-A pitching last year, leading to a batting line of .283/.416/.544 and a wRC+ of 159. He skipped Triple-A to get a five-game cup of coffee in the big leagues as the season was winding down.

Neither Stassi or O’Hoppe are a sure thing, but it would have been reasonable enough to go into the season with the two of them each jockeying for playing time and letting it get sorted as the season went along. However, it seems the club has at least some openness to upgrade, based on their pursuit of Contreras. It’s possible they want to give O’Hoppe more time in the minors or maybe that they would have pursued trades with Stassi if they landed Contreras.

General manager Perry Minasian recently told members of the media that the club could push pay the competitive balance tax in 2023 with no ownership mandate against it. Roster Resource currently pegs their 2023 payroll at $198MM with a CBT figure of $213MM. The first threshold of the luxury tax will be $233MM next year, giving the Angels about $20MM to work with before they have to think about whether they are willing to cross the line or not.

Contreras ended up signing a five-year, $87.5MM deal, with comes to an average annual value of $17.5MM. We don’t know exactly how much the Angels were willing to spend on Contreras, but something in this vicinity would have gotten them close to luxury tax territory. Assuming the Angels still have that money to spend on other players, it’s a good sign for Angel fans. The club could look for another backstop but have also been connected to shortstops and bullpen help. Since Contreras was clearly on a different tier to the other available free agent backstops, it’s possible that the Angels were willing to make an exception for him and won’t necessarily circle down to the other options. However, if they are interested in pursuing help behind the plate, the free agent market has options like Christian Vázquez and Gary Sánchez. The trade market is highlighted by Oakland’s Sean Murphy and Toronto’s Danny Jansen, though the asking prices on from both the A’s and the Jays are reportedly quite high.

Padres Sign Xander Bogaerts To 11-Year Deal

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December 9: The Padres have officially announced the deal. Chris Cotillo of MassLive provides the full contract breakdown. Bogaerts will make a $5MM signing bonus followed by 11 straight seasons with a $25MM salary.

December 8: The Padres closed out the Winter Meetings with a stunner, reportedly agreeing to an 11-year, $280MM contract with Xander Bogaerts. The deal does not contain any options or opt-out provisions, although it does include a full no-trade clause. Bogaerts is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Bogaerts had spent his whole career in Boston, originally joining the organization as an amateur signee from Aruba back in 2009. He quickly developed into one of the sport’s top prospects and was in the majors by August 2013, a few months before his 21st birthday. Bogaerts claimed two Silver Slugger awards within his first four MLB seasons, but his .283/.339/.409 career slash line through 2017 was roughly league average. He took a major step forward in 2018, reaching another level in his age-25 campaign.

He hit .288/.360/.522 with 23 home runs over 136 games that season, helping lead Boston to 108 wins and a World Series title. Bogaerts sustained that new level of excellence, as he’s been a well above-average offensive performer in each of the four years since then. Going back to the start of the 2018 campaign, the righty-hitting infielder owns a .300/.373/.507 line that checks in 34 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+.

On the heels of that breakout season, the Red Sox inked Bogaerts to a long-term deal. Boston guaranteed him $120MM between 2020-25, allowing him to opt out with half that money remaining after 2022. Bogaerts played well enough to earn MVP votes in each of the four seasons since signing that extension, making it a no-brainer he’d take his opt-out opportunity unless he and the Red Sox could preemptively agree upon a new deal.

Extension talks this spring didn’t come close, as Boston reportedly offered to tack on one additional season at $30MM. Turning that down was an easy call for Bogaerts’ camp, and he solidified his opt-out decision with another excellent year. Through 631 plate appearances, he hit .307/.377/.456. Bogaerts’ 15 home runs marked his lowest full-season total since 2017, but he finished tenth in the majors (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage.

A career-best .362 batting average on balls in play propped up those rate stats, and it’s unlikely he’ll manage to sustain quite so lofty a mark in future seasons. He owns a career .336 BABIP, though, so there’s plenty of room to remain a strong hitter even if his batting average comes down slightly. He’s walked at an average or better clip in each of the past five years, and he’s kept his strikeout rate remarkably consistent around 18% six seasons running.

Bogaerts makes contact, draws walks and typically threatens or tops 20 homers per season. He’s one of the more well-rounded offensive players in the game, and he’ll step right into an already loaded San Diego lineup. Bogaerts joins Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the middle of a lineup that should be incredibly difficult for opposing pitchers to navigate. That quintet has 11 combined Silver Slugger awards, and they’ll bring an incredible collection of weapons from both sides of the dish.

Where to pencil everyone in on the diamond is a decision the front office and manager Bob Melvin will work out over the coming months. San Diego’s middle infield was already strong. Tatis, two years removed from inking a $341MM extension to serve as the franchise shortstop, will return from his performance-enhancing drug suspension within the first month of next season. Ha-Seong Kim is a Gold Glove caliber shortstop who had a solid .251/.325/.383 line in his second big league campaign. Jake Cronenworth is an above-average defender at second base and owns a .257/.339/.443 mark through his first three seasons.

At least for the moment, Bogaerts seems likely to step in at shortstop. Scott Boras categorically rejected the possibility of Bogaerts moving off the position earlier this offseason. Perhaps the strength of the Padres’ offer changed that thinking, but it’s also possible the Friars rearrange their infield to accommodate his wishes. San Diego had already been considering the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield after his lost season in deference to Kim. Pushing Tatis into left or center field now seems especially likely. Bogaerts could step in at shortstop, with Kim moving to second base and Cronenworth taking over an uncertain first base position.

Bogaerts’ glove has been the subject of immense attention throughout the free agent process. The 6’2″, 218-pounder has a larger build than many shortstops, and he’s drawn some criticism for lacking prototypical range. Public defensive metrics roundly panned his glove throughout his career, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him below par every year from 2014-21. Concerns about his long-term defensive outlook seemingly played into Boston’s low extension offer this past spring, but Bogaerts posted the strongest defensive metrics of his career in 2022.

In 1249 2/3 innings this past season, he rated as five runs above average by DRS and four runs better than par, according to Statcast. Concerns about his lateral quickness into his mid-30’s figure to persist, but his strong 2022 campaign at least reduced any urgency to move him off shortstop immediately.

The Padres clearly aren’t much concerned about Bogaerts’ long-term defensive fit. Owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have been hellbent on adding another star regardless of position. They reportedly made offers well north of $300MM for both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, but both players declined and signed elsewhere. Those failed pursuits of Turner and Judge made the Padres a fascinating wild card this offseason, and while reports initially suggested they were unlikely to dip back into the shortstop market, they pivoted and made a run at Bogaerts.

An 11-year term will take him through his age-40 campaign. That matches the term Turner received from Philadelphia, but Bogaerts was generally expected to command a lesser deal in light of his long-term defensive concerns. Turner’s $300MM guarantee does beat the one received by Bogaerts, but the $20MM gap was closer than most had envisioned.

The deal shatters MLBTR’s pre-offseason prediction of $189MM over seven seasons. It’s the second-largest free agent deal in franchise history — trailing only Machado’s ten-year, $300MM pact. The $280MM guarantee is the seventh-largest for a free agent in MLB history, with Judge and Turner topping it thus far among this offseason’s free agents.

The cost for the Padres goes well beyond the terms of the offer itself. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but the contract comes with a $25.45MM average annual value. That’s the relevant consideration for luxury tax purposes, and it sends the Padres well into tax territory. Roster Resource projects the Friars for a tax number around $254MM at present. That’s $21MM north of the $233MM base threshold, and $1MM above the second tier of penalization.

San Diego has paid the luxury tax in each of the last two seasons, and it looks all but certain they’ll do so again. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for every dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, coming out to $10MM in fees. They’ll be charged 62% on any overages between $253MM and $273MM, and they’d face heightened penalties thereafter. As things currently stand, the Bogaerts deal sets them up for a tax bill around $10.6MM. Further additions or subtractions will alter that number, but it’s virtually certain they’ll be into competitive balance tax territory yet again.

It’s worth noting that at $27.27MM and $25.45MM respectively, both Turner and Bogaerts accepted lower average annual values than expected while also reaching an 11-year term that had only happened once before in free agency when Bryce Harper signed for 13 years.  With infielders Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Anthony Rendon receiving AAVs ranging from $32.5-35MM dating back to 2019, it may be surprising that Turner and Bogaerts fell well below that range.  It’s all about that CBT – the Phillies and Padres reduce their luxury tax hits and tax bills for taking on the players’ late-30s seasons, which project to have little value.

Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, meaning the Padres will also have to surrender draft choices to add him. As a team that paid the luxury tax in 2022, they’re subject to the highest penalties. San Diego will be stripped of its second and fifth-highest selections in next year’s amateur draft, and they’ll forfeit $1MM in international signing bonus space.

While the Padres load up for another run at the powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West, the Red Sox will have to move on from a homegrown star who’s played a key role with the franchise for nearly a decade. It’s an abrupt about-face for the organization. While it had long looked as if Bogaerts would depart given the lack of progress on an extension in Spring Training, reports Wednesday morning suggested their talks with his camp were gaining momentum.

It seemed as if he might remain in Boston for the entirety of his prime, but the Padres’ offer wound up handily surpassing Boston’s. Pete Abraham and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe report the Red Sox had offered a six-year term worth around $160MM. That was more in line with general pre-offseason expectations and contained a slightly higher annual salary than the deal Boagerts received, but San Diego’s willingness to tack on an extra half-decade in guaranteed money made the gap enormous.  Somehow, the $137.375MM the Red Sox spent on Masataka Yoshida and Kenley Jansen earlier Wednesday almost seems quaint in comparison to the Bogaerts contract.

The Red Sox will receive compensation for Bogaerts’ departure, but it’s at the lowest tier since Boston also paid the competitive balance tax in 2022. They’ll receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft. That’s of small consolation, and the far greater concern is how the club will move forward. Boston signed Trevor Story to a $140MM guarantee last offseason, giving themselves some cover at shortstop. Should they prefer to keep Story at second base, they could check in with the two remaining top free agent shortstops, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson.  Regardless, Boston is certainly not done after chief baseball office Chaim Bloom said Monday he hopes to add “seven, eight, nine” players to the team this offseason.  Starting pitcher and the catcher position are two items remaining on the shopping list even if shortstop is handled in-house.

Correa and Swanson are sitting pretty with Turner and Bogaerts having exceeded expectations in terms of total dollars.  While the Boras Corporation representing both Bogaerts and Correa could be viewed as a conflict of interest, the agency managed to get Bogaerts signed with a team that hadn’t been expected to sign a shortstop at the outset of the offseason.

It’s a deal of massive proportions, one that could drastically shake up both leagues. After a couple attempts came up empty, the Padres landed their desired superstar. The Red Sox’s optimism of a few hours ago was dashed by a determined organization that now spends like a big-market behemoth. Bogaerts lands one of the largest contracts in MLB history, setting the stage for a fascinating bidding war for the two star shortstops who remain unsigned.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report Bogaerts and the Padres had agreed to an 11-year, $280MM contract. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the deal did not come with any opt-out provisions and included a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cardinals Sign Willson Contreras To Five-Year Deal

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December 9: The Cardinals made it official, announcing that they have signed Contreras to a five-year deal with a club option for 2028. Specifics of the option aren’t known, although Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes it’d push the total outlay north of $100MM if exercised.

December 7: The Cardinals have a deal that would bring Willson Contreras to St. Louis for five years and $87.5MM. The longtime Cub will stay in the NL Central but will suit up for their top rival.

St. Louis has been determined to find a starting catcher this offseason. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken of that being the team’s top priority on a number of occasions, and he told reporters on Monday he hoped to land their new backstop before the Winter Meetings wrapped up this afternoon. It appears the Cards will come through on that goal by nabbing the undisputed top free agent option at the position.

Contreras is one of the game’s more consistent offensive threats behind the plate. He’s been an average or better hitter in every season of his career. Over parts of seven MLB seasons, he carries a .256/.349/.459 line. While he’s never topped 25 home runs, he’s eclipsed the 20-homer mark on four separate occasions. With only a half-season of action in 2016 and the truncated schedule in 2020, Contreras only once failed to reach 20 longballs over a full year of playing time (back during a 2018 campaign that proved his worst year to date).

The three-time All-Star will bring that offensive ability to Busch Stadium, while he’ll join Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt as right-handed presences in the middle of the lineup. Contreras performed as well as he ever has during his platform year, putting up a .243/.349/.466 line with 22 homers across 487 trips to the plate in his final season as a Cub. Those slash stats are about par for the course for Contreras’ career, but they become increasingly valuable in a league where offense was down significantly. By measure of wRC+, his production was 32 percentage points above league average, the highest such mark of his career.

That offense is even rarer when compared to his positional peers. On the whole, catchers mustered just a .228/.295/.368 line this past season. Of the 29 backstops with 300+ plate appearances, Contreras trailed only Alejandro Kirk, Adley Rutschman and his younger brother William Contreras in on-base percentage. Only William Contreras, Cal Raleigh, J.T. Realmuto and Travis d’Arnaud had a higher slugging mark.

Contreras backs that strong production up with quality batted ball metrics. His average exit velocity has topped 90 MPH in each of the past two seasons, while he’s bested a 47% hard contact rate in each of the last three years. For reference, the league average marks in those respective categories are 88.4 MPH and and 35.8%. Contreras’ strikeout and walk marks typically hover around average, leading to a solid offensive profile built around his above-average power.

While there’s little question of his offensive track record, Contreras’ glove has been a key talking point for months. With the Cubs out of contention at this past trade deadline and showing little appetite to work out a long-term deal, the 30-year-old backstop was one of the summer’s prime trade candidates. Concerns about his ability to manage a pitching staff and call a game trickled out in the weeks leading up to August 2, and the Cubs wound up hanging onto him. That’s not to say there was no interest — reports later emerged the Astros were prepared to send starter José Urquidy to Chicago in a one-for-one swap before Houston ownership killed the deal — but trepidations about his game-calling acumen have lingered into the offseason.

That’s an unquantifiable concern, and it’s probably not as pressing an issue with Contreras having a few months to build rapport with pitchers before jumping into game action. Teams generally tend to be wary about drastic midseason shake-ups behind the plate, reasoning that it’s difficult for a new acquisition to learn pitcher tendencies in the midst of a pennant race. Houston skipper Dusty Baker, who encouraged ownership to kill the trade over the summer, told reporters this week he’d be much more interested in bringing Contreras in as a free agent over the offseason. To that end, Houston reportedly put forth a multi-year offer and was seemingly one of the favorites for his services, but it appears they’ll lose out on the bidding in the long run.

Contreras, it’s worth noting, fares well enough behind the plate in more measurable aspects. Statcast has pegged him as a roughly average pitch framer for the past three seasons, as he worked to overcome ghastly receiving marks from earlier in his career. Contreras boasts an excellent arm, having cut down 29.8% of attempted base-stealers in his career. That’s well north of this year’s 25% league average. Statcast credited him with the 11th-lowest pop time (average time to throw to second on a steal attempt) among 73 backstops with 10+ attempts in 2022.

St. Louis is clearly comfortable enough with Contreras’ overall defensive profile to make him their successor behind the plate to franchise icon Yadier Molina. They explored a number of trade and free agent possibilities, with reports tying them to the #2 free agent at the position (Christian Vázquez) and top trade candidates Sean Murphy and Danny Jansen. In the end, they have held off on dealing away young talent for a catcher and have gone to the top of the market in free agency. Contreras will step in as their #1 backstop, relegating Andrew Knizner to reserve duty and allowing the team to keep prospect Iván Herrera in Triple-A.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted he’d land a four-year, $84MM deal, with this $87.5MM deal now becoming one of the largest free agent contracts in franchise history. The Cardinals have only previously topped $80MM for a free agent on three occasions, adding Matt Holliday for $120MM and going right around $80MM for both Mike Leake and Dexter Fowler. As noted by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, this is the largest guarantee they’ve given to a free agent who hadn’t previously played for the team.

The Cardinals will also have to surrender a draft choice. Contreras declined a qualifying offer from the Cubs at the start of the offseason, tying him to draft compensation. St. Louis neither received revenue sharing payments nor surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2022. They’re therefore subject to standard penalties for signing another team’s qualified free agent — the surrender of their second-highest pick in the 2023 draft and $500K in international signing bonus space.

The Cubs, meanwhile, will recoup a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in next year’s draft. That typically checks in around 75th overall. It’ll be small consolation to a fanbase disappointed to see a fan favorite depart, particularly to join their most hated rival. Contreras’ departure has long seemed an inevitability given the team’s lack of desire at making a longer-term commitment. Chicago will move forward with Yan Gomes and potentially an outside acquisition behind the dish, the latest example of the team closing the book on its 2016 curse-breaking club. Starter Kyle Hendricks, who’s under contract for one more season, is the sole remaining player from that team.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Cardinals were closing in on a deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first floated the five-year structure. Jon Morosi of MLB Network first had the sides in agreement. Jesse Rogers of ESPN first had the $87.5MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Carlos Rodón Seeking Seven-Year Deal

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The Yankees are one of many teams known to be interested in lefty Carlos Rodón, but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they would prefer to limit him to a four- or five-year deal. That might be a problem, since Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Rodón is looking for at least seven years. Reporter Marino Pepén says the Red Sox are interested, though the extent of interest isn’t clear.

Just a few days ago, it had been reported that Rodón was seeking a six-year deal, but there may be good reasons why he’s upped his ask. The free-agent market has been broadly aggressive, with many of the top free agents going well beyond expectations in terms of contract length.

In recent offseasons, teams have generally cut off guarantees to position players in their age-37 seasons, but Aaron Judge got a nine-year deal taking him through age-39. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts each landed 11-year deals that run into their 40s. Brandon Nimmo will be paid through age 38 with the Mets. Pitchers, meanwhile, have struggled to land guarantees beyond their age-36 season (with older veterans like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander standing as exceptions for obvious reasons), but Jacob deGrom signed through age 39 in Texas. The length of all those deals is generally rooted in lowering the luxury-tax hit, though, and Rodon’s ostensibly new goal of seven-plus years could be a matter of falling in line with that broader market trend.

DeGrom and Rodón are somewhat analogous, though not the exact same. Both are extremely talented pitchers with some injury concerns in recent years. DeGrom is arguably the best pitcher alive when healthy but missed over an entire year from mid-2021 to mid-2022 due to forearm and scapula injuries.

Rodón is much younger, as he will turn 30 years old tomorrow. Injuries limited him to just over 40 combined innings in 2019 and 2020 and the concern was high enough that the White Sox actually non-tendered him after that. There were enough red flags that he had to settle for a one-year, $3MM deal to return to the Sox. He’s been on a straight upward trajectory since.

Rodón tossed 132 2/3 innings in 2021 with a 2.37 ERA and excellent 34.6% strikeout rate. He seemed to run out of gas down the stretch, leaving some lingering health concerns as he returned to free agency. He didn’t get a qualifying offer and had to “settle” for a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants, though one that gave him a chance to opt-out after the first campaign. He pushed further away from the injury worries by making 31 starts and logging 178 frames with a 2.88 ERA and 33.4% strikeout rate. He made the easy decision to opt out and also reject a qualifying offer from the Giants.

The fact that Rodón is now reasonably seeking a seven-year deal is nothing short of remarkable, given where he was just two years ago. It’s also not surprising that he’s looking to strike while the iron is hot, given the ups and downs he’s had in his career. Still, contracts of this length for free agent pitchers are quite rare. Gerrit Cole got nine years but with a much stronger record of health than Rodón. Prior to that deal, he had made at least 19 starts for seven straight seasons and at least 32 in the previous three. Kenta Maeda got eight years when coming over from Japan, but that was a unique situation. Maeda was going into his age-28 season but had some health concerns, leading the Dodgers to give him a modest $25MM guarantee spread out over eight years but with $10MM in incentives available each year that Maeda could trigger by staying healthy.

There are a handful of aces that have gotten to seven years, including Max Scherzer, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka, the latter of whom was only 25 at the time and is hardly a similar situation. Strasburg had dealt with some injuries but was coming off a World Series MVP performance that pushed his bidding up. The others in that group, similar to Cole, had fairly solid records of health and durability. As great as Rodón has been for the past two seasons, any seven-year deal would generally be rarefied air for a pitcher.

Now, with this offseason’s trend of utilizing longer contracts to tamp down AAV (and, thusly, luxury-tax penalties), it seems more plausible than before that Rodón might indeed command seven-plus years. Initial reports indicated that he was seeking six years with a $30MM+ annual salary. If Rodón and agent Scott Boras are fixated more on the contract’s total than on its length, then spreading that, say, $175-200MM goal out over a period of seven, eight or even nine years would greatly reduce the potential luxury penalties for whichever team signs him. That’s more a concern if he signs with a major-market club that regularly finds itself in luxury peril (e.g. Yankees, Red Sox) than if he were to sign with one of his reported suitors that has never held much of an appetite for the luxury tax (e.g. Twins, Orioles).

The Yankees are clearly willing to spend, as they just gave Judge a record-breaking $360MM guarantee. How much they want to continue spending, however, is an open question. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll for next season at $250MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $266MM. That already places them beyond last year’s Opening Day payroll of $246MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and beyond the second tier of luxury tax penalization. The tiers begin at $233MM next year and go up in $20MM increments to $293MM. Adding $25-30MM for Rodón would push them near or above that top penalty threshold.

The club doesn’t strictly need an elite starter like Rodón, but he would certainly be an upgrade for any rotation in the game. The Yanks currently have Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas for four spots with solid options for the last spot including Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt. That’s a solid group, but Montas and Severino both have some recent injuries that make them question marks going into next season, so there would be plenty of sense in adding another arm and pushing some guys down the depth chart. The question will be whether the Yanks would prefer paying the price for an ace like Rodón as opposed to turning to mid-rotation options like Chris Bassitt or Sean Manaea.

If Rodón indeed is open to seven or more years in order to obtain the contract total he’s eyeing, that would be an interesting situation for the Yankees to ponder. They already have expensive contracts for Cole and Judge on the books for the next six and nine years, respectively. Giancarlo Stanton has five years left with a $25MM club option for 2028 with a $10MM buyout. Adding a lengthy deal for Rodón would likely mean their 2028 payroll would already be well beyond $100MM.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have plenty of space before thinking about the tax. Roster Resource currently has their payroll at $172MM and their CBT figure at $192MM. That leaves them about $40MM away from the lowest threshold, meaning they could add Rodón with room to spare. There would be plenty of sense in adding to their rotation given all the question marks they have there. Nick Pivetta is probably the only solid member of their group right now, as Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock are penciled into two spots, though they are young and only have 20 MLB starts between them. They also have other areas worth addressing on the roster, such as catcher and figuring out how to deal with the departure of Bogaerts from their infield. Long-term, they have Story and Masataka Yoshida locked in for the next five seasons but nothing guaranteed for 2028.

Phillies Sign Matt Strahm

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The Phillies’ whirlwind week continued Friday, as the team formally announced a two-year deal with free-agent lefty Matt Strahm. The ACES client will reportedly be guaranteed $15MM on the contract, which was the third free-agent agreement of the week for a Phillies club that also closed deals with shortstop Trea Turner (11 years, $300MM) and right-hander Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM)

Strahm, 31, pitched the last year with the Red Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal. He tossed 44 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball, striking out batters at a 26.9% clip against an 8.8% walk rate. Strahm had fairly even splits, limiting left-handed hitters to a .229/.333/.354 line while right-handers hit .221/.302/.353. It represented a solid platform year for Strahm, who pitched just 6 2/3 innings for the Padres a year prior.

Initially drafted in the 21st round of the 2012 draft by the Royals, Strahm found his way to the majors in 2016. That year he pitched effectively out of their bullpen, working to a 1.23 ERA across 22 innings while striking out a well above average 34.1% of batters. The strikeouts nosedived in 2017 to 24% and the results followed, as Strahm struggled to a 5.45 ERA in 34 2/3 innings that year before ultimately winding up on the IL for the rest of the season with a knee injury.

While injured, the Royals traded him with Esteury Ruiz and Travis Wood to the Padres at the 2017 deadline in a deal for Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer. He wouldn’t pitch for them until 2018, when he threw 61 1/3 innings of 2.05 ERA ball. Strahm saw his strikeout rate tick back up while posting the best walk rate (8.6%) of his career at that point.

The Padres gave him a look as a starter in 2019, and he wound up making 16 starts for the team that year. Those didn’t go so well, as Strahm pitched to a 5.29 ERA. They returned him to the bullpen and Strahm quickly found his groove again, tossing 33 innings of 3.27 ERA relief work in the second half. He continued to provide value for the Padres out of the pen in the shortened 2020 season, working to a 2.61 ERA in 20 2/3 innings.

Injuries plagued his 2021 campaign, as Strahm first dealt with a right patellar tendon repair. He returned in August that year, but a few weeks found himself shut down for the rest of the season with knee inflammation. He went to free agency looking for opportunities to rebuild his value, and found that in the form of a one-year, $3MM deal with the Red Sox. The platform year in Boston went well enough that Strahm now finds himself with a multi-year contract with an AAV of $7.5MM.

Philadelphia’s bullpen was need of a bit of a rebuild after the departures of Corey Knebel, David Robertson and Brad Hand, and there’s every chance Strahm isn’t the only addition they make there. He’ll slot in with the likes of Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti and Connor Brogdon in the Phillies bullpen as things stand. It’s also at least possible that he’ll get a look as a starter, as he’s previously voiced a desire to get another rotation opportunity — and the Phillies’ fifth starter spot is at least somewhat up for grabs. Bailey Falter is the in-house favorite, though prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry aren’t far from MLB readiness.

The addition of Strahm brings the Phillies’ payroll up to about $230MM in terms of actual 2023 salaries, but their luxury-tax ledger (which is based on AAV and also includes player benefits and the team’s payment into the leaguewide pre-arbitration bonus pool) is just shy of $242MM, per Roster Resource. That’s about $8MM over this year’s $233MM threshold, and as a team in line to pay the tax for a second straight season, they’ll pay a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed that threshold. As it stands, they’re only in line for about $2.7MM worth of penalties, but further roster machinations will alter that outlook.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were close to a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported they were in agreement on a two-year, $15MM contract.

Diamondbacks Have Shown Interest In Evan Longoria, Justin Turner

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Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen listed adding some right-handed help to his lineup as an area of focus back in early October, and much of the team’s pursuits to this point in the offseason have reflected that desire to balance out a heavily left-handed lineup. Arizona has already bought low on 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that they’ve spoken to veteran corner infielders Evan Longoria and Justin Turner as well (Twitter links).

Arizona currently has left-handed bats as its primary options across the outfield (Jake McCarthy, Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas), at third base (Josh Rojas) and likely at designated hitter (Pavin Smith, Seth Beer). The Snakes aren’t devoid of righty-swinging options, as switch-hitting Ketel Marte provides a strong right-handed presence, as does first baseman Christian Walker. Catcher Carson Kelly and shortstop Nick Ahmed are both generally light-hitting options, but both righties at least have above-average career marks against left-handed pitching.

That contingent of righties wasn’t enough to make the 2022 D-backs anywhere close to passable against left-handed pitching, however. As a team, the Diamondbacks batted .227/.292/.363 against left-handed pitching in 2022, and the resulting 83 wRC+ ranked 28th in baseball, leading only the Pirates (81) and Marlins (71). The aforementioned Lewis might be a slight upgrade over some in-house options, if healthy, but that’s a substantial “if” — and he’s had reverse platoon splits to this point in his career anyhow.

Both Longoria and Turner, however, would represent marked upgrades to that glaring team deficiency against lefties. Longoria, 37, hit .282/.333/.479 against southpaws in 2022 and has tormented left-handed pitchers with a .281/.359/.509 slash throughout his 15 Major League seasons. The 38-year-old Turner, meanwhile, posted a .275/.349/.389 slash against left-handers in 2022 and has a .276/.358/.460 output against them throughout the duration of his own 14-year career in the Majors.

At this point in their careers, neither Longoria nor Turner is likely viewed as an everyday option at third base. Both played fewer than 600 innings at the position in 2022, although injuries to each played a role in that limited defensive work. Still, Turner spent half of his 128 games at designated hitter, while Longoria spent about 20% of his time serving as a DH with the Giants  last year. Both players once drew strong defensive marks at the hot corner but have seen them dwindle in recent seasons. Turner drew slightly negative marks in each of Defensive Runs Saved (-1), Ultimate Zone Rating (-2.1) and Outs Above Average (-2), while Longoria was dinged by DRS (-4) but credited as a scratch defender in the eyes of both UZR and OAA. Even if neither is viewed as a full-time option at third, either Longoria or Turner could split time with Rojas while also logging regular work as the D-backs’ designated hitter.

Beyond their inquiries into veteran corner infielders, the D-backs have been on the hunt for catching help throughout the winter. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the names to which they’ve been primarily connected — A’s catcher Sean Murphy and free agent Christian Vazquez — both hit from the right side of the dish.

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