MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?
The grand finale of the 2023 season is set to begin this evening, as the NL champion Diamondbacks head to Arlington to take on the AL champion Rangers for the first game of this year’s World Series.
Both teams have faced plenty of adversity en route to creating the third ever World Series matchup featuring two Wild Card teams, and they each did so via rather similar paths. After all, both clubs led their division for much of the first half of the season before losing their grip on the role in the second half and settling for a Wild Card spot. Since then, they both swept through the Wild Card series before delivering an additional sweep against a 100-win team in the Division Series. In the Championship Series, both teams were trailing after Game 5 but managed to come back with wins in both Game 6 and Game 7 to win their first pennant in over a decade.
It’s all the more impressive given that neither Texas nor Arizona were expected to be playoff contenders at the beginning of the season: the playoff odds over at Fangraphs gave the Rangers just a 37.7% chance to make the postseason with a 2% chance of a World Series run, while the Diamondbacks were afforded just 15.3% playoff odds and a 0.5% chance to make the World Series, a bottom-ten figure in the majors. What’s more, both clubs lost 100 games just two seasons ago, during the 2021 campaign.
That’s not to say these clubs are the same, of course. Despite their lack of recent postseason history, the Rangers look in many ways like the prototypical October team. They sport a fantastic front three for their starting rotation of Nathan Eovaldi (2.42 ERA in four playoff appearances, 3.63 regular season ERA), Jordan Montgomery (2.16 ERA in five playoff appearances, 2.79 regular season ERA with Texas), and veteran ace Max Scherzer, who struggled in two ALCS starts coming back from a teres major strain but posted a 3.20 ERA during his time with the Rangers during the regular season.
If Scherzer has shaken off the rust enough to look like himself during the World Series, that’s a frightening three-headed monster for Arizona to have to overcome in this series. On the positional side, meanwhile, the Rangers feature a frightening lineup including stars Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter, and power-hitting sluggers Adolis Garcia and Mitch Garver. As strong as the lineup and rotation in Arlington may be, the club’s bullpen has been its Achilles’ heel this postseason as key relief arms like Jose Leclerc (4.35 postseason ERA) and Will Smith (9.00 postseason ERA) have struggled badly, though Cody Bradford and Aroldis Chapman have gotten stronger results, with a combined 1.50 ERA across 12 innings of work this postseason.
The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, appear as unlikely a pennant winner as they come. They finished with just an 84-78 record in the regular season and a run differential of -14, making them the first ever team to win the NL pennant with a negative run differential. The only other team to make the World Series with a negative run differential were the 1987 Twins, who went on to win it all in seven games over the Cardinals. With that being said, the Diamondbacks are hardly a pushover. Though the club’s .247/.317/.424 slash line this postseason pales in comparison to that of the Rangers, Arizona’s pitching staff has actually posted stronger numbers this October with a 3.31 ERA and 23.4% strikeout rate against Texas’s 3.67 ERA and 19.2% strikeout rate.
That strong pitching performance has come in spite of the struggles of team ace Zac Gallen, who posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.26 FIP in 210 innings during the regular season but has scuffled to a 5.24 ERA in four postseason starts. Veteran righty Merrill Kelly (2.65 ERA in three postseason starts) and rookie Brandon Pfaadt (2.70 ERA in four postseason starts) have managed to pick the club’s rotation up, however, an especially impressive feat considering Pfaadt’s lackluster regular season ERA of 5.72 across 96 innings. The back of the club’s bullpen has also been nothing short of stellar, with closer Paul Sewald and primary set-up man Kevin Ginkel combining for 17 scoreless innings of work this postseason. Right-hander Ryan Thompson has also impressed, with a 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work throughout the playoffs.
On offense, franchise face Ketel Marte (164 wRC+ this postseason) has excelled, while rookies Corbin Carroll (130 postseason wRC+) and Gabriel Moreno (129 wRC+) have also impressed in their first tastes of postseason action. Strong as that trio’s performance may be, however, other key bats like Tommy Pham, Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have all struggled to this point in the postseason. That could give Texas the offensive edge unless some of the club’s colder bats manage to heat up during the series.
With Gallen and Eovaldi scheduled to face off later this evening for Game 1 of the World Series, which team do MLBTR readers think will take home the Commissioner’s Trophy this year? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Who Will Win The 2023 World Series?
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Texas Rangers 69% (3,775)
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Arizona Diamondbacks 31% (1,724)
Total votes: 5,499
NL Central Notes: Woodruff, Cubs, Cardinals
Brandon Woodruff addressed several topics during an interview on Foul Territory, including his hopes of returning from shoulder surgery before the 2024 season is over. The possibility certainly exists that Woodruff’s anterior capsule procedure might sideline him for the entire year, but the Brewers right-hander acknowledged that he is far too early in the recovery process to set any timelines. However, Woodruff said that “from talking with multiple doctors, there is a possibility to be open to me throwing at some point this summer….As an athlete, you have to set goals and [have] something to look forward to.”
Woodruff is under arbitration control for one remaining season and was initially seen as a possible trade candidate this winter given his rising arb price tag. His shoulder surgery ended any chance of a trade, but it create some chance that the Brewers could non-tender Woodruff altogether. That said, the Brew Crew might also look to sign Woodruff to some type of lower-cost two-year contract, allowing him time to recover and then hopefully be ready for a full season in 2025. The two-time All-Star hasn’t yet spoken with the team about any kind of contract or his injury situation in general, but since “the season isn’t over yet,” he figures those conversations will eventually come. Woodruff’s preference is definitely to stay put, as “I’ve been so lucky to be with one organization and basically one coaching staff my whole career….I fit in so well with that city and this organization that my hope is that I will be a Brewer for a long time. That’s what I want.”
More from around the NL Central….
- Injuries and inconsistency hampered the Cubs‘ bullpen late in the season, contributing to the team’s subsequent fall out of the playoff race in September. Relief pitching figures to be a target area for Chicago this winter, but Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic don’t believe this season’s outcome will change the front office’s aversion to heavy investments in the bullpen, given how relievers can run so hot or cold from year to year. Some more experienced arms will be sought out, but with “an emphasis on finding veteran relievers who have had some success in the past — or flashed the potential to put it all together — but haven’t done it consistently or recently enough to command a multiyear contract.”
- The Rangers’ Mike Maddux and the Diamondbacks’ Brent Strom are the opposing pitching coaches for the World Series, and Jeff Jones of the Bellville News-Democrat notes the bittersweet nature of this matchup for the Cardinals, considering that both coaches used to be employed in the St. Louis organization. Maddux was the team’s pitching coach from 2018-22 before joining the Rangers last winter, and Strom worked for St. Louis from 2007-13, including a stint as the Cards’ minor league pitching coordinator. Considering that the Cardinals’ pitching faltered in 2023 and they’re now planning to overhaul their rotation this winter, Jones observes that “whatever changes come in the staffing of player and pitching development will likely take the form of attempting to re-capture some of what was already in house and departed.”
Athletics Sign Vinny Nittoli
The A’s signed right-hander Vinny Nittoli to a minor league contract, according to reporter Jessica Kleinschmidt (X link). The deal includes an invitation to Oakland’s big league Spring Training camp.
It was a pretty short stint on the open market for Nittoli, who only elected minor league free agency a few days ago after the Mets outrighted the 32-year-old off their 40-man roster last week. Nittoli came to New York in a trade from the Cubs last June, and all of his 2023 big league action came in a Mets uniform — 3 2/3 innings pitched over three appearances.
This makes it three MLB seasons for Nittoli, though he has only 6 2/3 career innings and six games under his belt as a big leaguer. A 25th-round draft pick for the Mariners in 2014, Nittoli has bounced around to nine different organizations in total, including both his new deal with the Athletics. He has also been with the Mariners and Blue Jays in multiple stints, and pitched in independent ball in 2017-18.
Nittoli has largely worked as a relief pitcher during this well-traveled career, and he has a 5.04 ERA over 153 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level. Despite some pretty solid strikeout totals, Nittoli has been hampered by the home run ball in recent years, particularly in 2023 when he allowed 11 homers in 42 2/3 total innings with the Cubs’ and Mets’ top affiliates.
The righty’s secondary metrics have been decent enough to keep meriting looks from a variety of different teams now, but Nittoli hasn’t yet been able to establish himself beyond anything more than a few cups of coffee in the majors. A fresh opportunity awaits in Oakland, and since the rebuilding A’s are on the lookout for low-cost veterans to fill out their bullpen, Nittoli might have a shot at winning himself a job in Spring Training.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Baltimore Orioles
Since the Baltimore edition of the Offseason Outlook series was published earlier today, we also held a live chat focused on all things Orioles. Click here to read the transcript.
Red Sox Notes: Breslow, Huntington, Levine, Mejdal, Bailey
Craig Breslow, Neal Huntington, and Thad Levine were the final three candidates for the Red Sox in their search for a new front office boss, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam writes. That search came to an end earlier this week when Breslow was hired as Boston’s new chief baseball officer, putting the former Cubs assistant GM and 12-year big league veteran in charge of a front office for the first time.
Huntington and Levine were known to be under consideration, though Levine initially didn’t appear to be a finalist when reports surfaced this week that the Red Sox had told him he was no longer a candidate for the job. At the time, it seemed like the Sox were moving onto a second round of interviews in their hiring process, yet it now appears as if that second round had already begun, and the Sox had made their decision about Breslow. It seemed as though Breslow sealed the deal with a strong interview with Sox principal owner John Henry during that secondary stage.
Back in September, Peter Gammons reported that the Red Sox had some interest in Breslow for a possible role as a director of pitching development. That early link between Breslow and the Sox could tie into McAdam’s breakdown of how the team didn’t initially have Breslow on the radar as a CBO candidate at first, in part due to his lack of experience as a GM or president of baseball operations. However, as the Red Sox increasingly became open to the idea of at least making Breslow the chief lieutenant of a CBO, they still had difficulty finding someone appropriate for that top job, thus making Breslow an even more attractive candidate. McAdam also notes that the Sox were concerned that the Cubs might offer Breslow a promotion to stay in Chicago if he was offered anything less than a CBO position, or that another team might come calling about Breslow in the near future about a CBO/PBO job if he was only in a secondary role in Boston.
The front office search was marked by several notable executives who declined to interview with the Red Sox, though McAdam writes that Boston had interest in a candidate that seemingly wasn’t given permission for an interview. The Sox wanted to speak with Orioles assistant GM Sig Mejdal, yet the O’s “dragged their feet on the process and never provided the Sox with the go-ahead to speak with Mejdal,” according to McAdam.
The 57-year-old Mejdal has been with Baltimore since November 2018, and was one of Mike Elias’ first hires when Elias took over the Orioles’ front office as general manager. Mejdal has been one of the key figures of baseball’s analytics movement over the last two decades, as his work with the Orioles, Astros, and Cardinals has led those clubs to tremendous results in maximizing talent and finding and developing young players. As McAdam observes, it probably isn’t surprising that the Orioles wanted to keep Mejdal in the fold, even if most organizations generally allow employees to interview for promotions on other teams. It isn’t known if Mejdal would’ve been open to an interview anyway, as there has been some past speculation that Mejdal is happy in a behind-the-scenes role rather than running a front office himself.
Returning to Breslow, it’s still too early to tell how he’ll approach the makeup of his baseball operations department, which will continue to have several longtime holdovers (assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Raquel Ferreira, Michael Groopman) who are expected to stay in the organization. Whether one of them could be elevated to a full-time general manager role to act as Breslow’s No. 2 remains to be seen, or if he might hire a GM from outside Fenway Park to provide another new voice in the mix.
As for on-field matters, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford speculates that Giants pitching coach Andrew Bailey might be a candidate to join Boston’s staff, as Breslow and Bailey are close friends and former teammates from when they pitched together with the Athletics and Red Sox from 2009-13. The Sox fired pitching coach Dave Bush after the season, and some recent reports suggest Bailey might look to leave San Francisco for a job closer to his family on the East Coast.
The Opener: World Series Game 1, Padres, Schumaker
What’s cooking in the baseball world as we near the end of October….
1. The World Series begins tonight:
Game 1 between the Rangers and Diamondbacks takes places tonight in Arlington, with Nathan Eovaldi on the hill for Texas and Zac Gallen getting the start for Arizona. Seemingly an unlikely matchup when the playoffs began, the Rangers and D’Backs each pulled off upsets against higher-seeded opponents in every round, and overcame 3-2 deficits in the League Championship Series. The D’Backs are in the World Series for the second time in franchise history, capturing the title in their first trip to the Fall Classic back in 2001. Texas is still looking for its first championship after coming up short in two prior World Series appearances in 2010-11.
2. The Padres begin their managerial search:
Now that Bob Melvin is officially the Giants’ new manager, the Padres have a hole to fill in the dugout. The early buzz is that bench coach Ryan Flaherty and senior advisor Mike Shildt are the favorites to succeed Melvin, and Flaherty will inteview with the Padres today after Shildt spoke with the club Wednesday. Pitching coach Ruben Niebla might also get an interview before San Diego moves on to explore any potential external candidates. Even if Flaherty, Shildt, or Niebla indeed up with the manager’s job, it only makes sense that the Padres would do due diligence in lining up some other interviews, just in case an unexpected contender might emerge for the job….
3: Schumaker unhappy in Miami?:
…for instance, maybe another current MLB skipper? Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Marlins manager Skip Schumaker is “upset over” the departure of general manager Kim Ng, who declined her end of the mutual option between her and the Marlins for the 2024 season. Owner Bruce Sherman had planned to essentially demote Ng by hiring a president of baseball operations to work above her, and this naturally didn’t sit well with Ng — or with Schumaker, who was hired by Ng to manage the club just over a year ago. Schumaker’s first season in Miami resulted in 84 wins and a wild card berth, and he’d surely get interest for other managerial jobs elsewhere, if his displeasure over Ng has led to a reconsideration of his own future with the Marlins. However, Heyman doesn’t feel the Marlins would let Schumaker explore any other options, as he is under contract through the 2024 season (with a club option for 2025).
NL Notes: Giants, Schumaker, Kelly
The Giants recently signed veteran skipper Bob Melvin to a three-year deal, filling their managerial vacancy ahead of what could be a busy offseason. However, if they had not been able to woo Melvin, they likely would have hired either Mariners bullpen coach Stephen Vogt or Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza (per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle). The only other candidates to receive an interview were Giants coaches Alyssa Nakken, Kai Correa, and Mark Hallberg, although the team also expressed interest in Red Sox player information coach Jason Varitek, Angels third base coach Bill Haselman, and Rangers special assistant Nick Hundley.
Mendoza’s candidacy comes as something of a surprise; he is seen as a possible contender for the Guardians managerial opening, but he had not previously been linked to the Giants.
After four years as a player in the Yankees farm system, Mendoza moved into a minor league coaching role in 2009. Over the next nine seasons, he took on various coaching roles at various levels before he was promoted to the big league staff ahead of the 2018 campaign. He spent two years as the infield coach and has been Aaron Boone’s bench coach since 2020.
More coaching and managerial news from around the Senior Circuit…
- Jon Heyman of the New York Post identifies Marlins manager Skip Schumaker as a potential target for the Padres – the team loved him during his tenure as a coach in San Diego – although it doesn’t seem likely that the Marlins will give him permission to interview with another club. The 2024 season will be the last guaranteed year on the skipper’s contract, but Miami has a club option for the 2025 campaign. Still, Heyman suggests the rookie manager might already be looking to move on; he is reportedly upset with the way the team pushed former GM Kim Ng out of her role. Ng hired Schumaker last October, and presumably, he planned on working with her for more than a single season.
- Heyman also brings up Pirates bench coach Don Kelly, dubbing the former utility player a “future manager” – although he doesn’t link him to any specific teams. In fact, Kelly isn’t planning to throw his hat in the ring for any of the managerial openings around the league. Following the recent passing of his father-in-law Tom Walker, he would prefer to remain close to family in Pittsburgh, where he has spent the past four seasons working under manager Derek Shelton.
AL Notes: Astros, Angels, White Sox, Tigers, Orioles
Dusty Baker might be finished as a manager, but the baseball lifer has a job in the Astros front office anytime he wants it. Owner Jim Crane told reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com) that Baker is “always welcome” in the Astros organization. Meanwhile, the long-time skipper said he is “retiring from the field” but hasn’t made up his mind about what comes next (per Chandler Rome of The Athletic).
As for hiring a new manager to replace Baker, the Astros are just beginning their search. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests that bench coach Joe Espada and former Tigers and Angels manager Brad Ausmus are “strong candidates.” Ausmus was a contender for the Astros GM position last offseason and the managerial opening back in 2020. Espada was another candidate in the team’s last managerial search, and he has interviewed for numerous other managing jobs in the years since. McTaggart also identified several contenders for the gig, including Ausmus, Espada, and Diamondbacks bench coach Jeff Banister.
More news from around the American League…
- After four years on the Angels‘ coaching staff (three as pitching coach), Matt Wise has accepted a new job as the bullpen coach for the White Sox, as first reported by Ken Rosenthal and Sam Blum of The Athletic. While going from pitching coach to bullpen coach might seem like a step backward, Wise was something of a sitting duck in the Angels organization. Los Angeles is looking to hire a new manager after parting ways with Phil Nevin, and that new manager will presumably want to hire a coaching staff of his own.
- The Tigers, meanwhile, need a new first base coach. According to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Alfredo Amézaga will not return to A.J. Hinch’s coaching staff next season. He joined the staff ahead of the 2023 campaign after previously working as a minor league coach in the Braves organization. Amézaga is also a manager in the Mexican Winter League.
- Finally, over in the AL East, the Orioles made some changes in their scouting and player development departments. A dozen front office staffers were promoted to new roles, including Matt Blood, the new vice president of player development and domestic scouting; Koby Perez, the new vice president of international scouting and operations; and Anthony Villa, the new director of player development (per Roch Kubatko of MASN). Blood was the previous director of player development, while Perez served as director of international scouting. Villa was the minor league hitting coordinator in 2023.
Cardinals Outright Andrew Suárez, Casey Lawrence
The Cardinals announced on Thursday that pitchers Andrew Suárez and Casey Lawrence have elected free agency after being outrighted off of the 40-man roster. In addition, the team sent three more players, right-hander Kyle Leahy and infielders Irving Lopez and Juniel Querecuto, outright to Triple-A Memphis.
The moves clear five spots on the team’s 40-man roster, bringing the total down to 35. Not so coincidentally, the Cardinals currently have five players on the 60-day IL who will need spots on the 40-man following the conclusion of the World Series: Dylan Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Packy Naughton, Wilking Rodriguez, and Guillermo Zuñiga.
Suárez appeared in 13 games for St. Louis this season, pitching 27.2 innings in a long relief role. The southpaw was little more than a mop-up man, posting a 7.16 ERA and a 5.67 SIERA, while walking nearly as many batters as he struck out. He did, however, look much more comfortable at Triple-A, posting a 4.08 ERA in 64 innings with the Memphis Redbirds.
Lawrence didn’t have much more success than Suárez, pitching to a 6.59 ERA and 5.05 SIERA in 27.1 innings of long relief. Those aren’t great numbers for the 35-year-old journeyman, but on the bright side, he did a good job limiting hard contact for the second year in a row, holding opposing batters to an 88.1-mph average exit velocity and finishing with a respectable 4.39 xERA.
Leahy appeared very briefly for the Cardinals in 2023, pitching in three games, facing 15 batters, giving up four runs, and recording five outs. He was optioned in mid-July, barely two weeks after making his MLB debut. Unfortunately for the 26-year-old righty, his numbers at Triple-A weren’t much more impressive than they were in the majors; he posted a 9.74 ERA and a 6.63 FIP through the final two months of the season.
Lopez has been in the Cardinals organization since 2017, when he was taken in the 19th round of the draft. After a strong showing at Triple-A, batting .315 with a 1.001 OPS in 19 games, the 28-year-old made his MLB debut at the end of September. He went hitless in 11 at-bats but recorded his first big league RBI on a sacrifice fly in the final game of the season.
Querecuto, a utility infielder, was a mid-September call-up, appearing in nine games and splitting his time between first, second, and third base. He went 2-for-20 with a single, a double, and a walk. Having been outrighted previously in his career – back in 2016 with the Rays – Querecuto could have elected free agency instead of accepting his outright assignment, but evidently, he has decided to remain in the Cardinals organization. After bouncing around between five organizations in his professional career, it makes sense that he’s interested in sticking with the team that gave him his first shot at big league action in seven years.
NL East Notes: Nola, Eppler, Hefner, Lundquist
The longest-tenured player on the Phillies, All-Star starting pitcher Aaron Nola, is set to hit free agency following the conclusion of the World Series. Meanwhile, his long-time rotation mate, Zack Wheeler, is entering the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact he signed ahead of the 2020 campaign.
Speaking to members of the media on Thursday (including Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia), president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said that re-signing Nola is a priority and he hopes to retain the former Cy Young finalist. Nola, for his part, told reporters on Tuesday (including Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer), “I hope I’m back, for sure.” Thus, there seems to be mutual interest in keeping the right-hander in Philadelphia for the long haul.
However, a deal still has to get done, and both sides have acknowledged that it might not happen. Dombrowski says he will pivot to other front-line starters on the open market if he can’t come to an agreement with Nola, while the 30-year-old starter was more cryptic, simply admitting that he doesn’t know “what the future holds.” The two sides reached an impasse in extension talks last winter, with the ace reportedly seeking a much longer deal that the team was willing to offer.
Dombrowski also expressed a vague desire to keep Wheeler beyond the terms of his current contract, although he would not reveal if extension negotiations were part of his offseason plan.
In other news from the NL East…
- Earlier this month, Billy Eppler stepped down from his role as general manager of the Mets amidst an investigation into his misuse of the injured list and injury rehab assignments. His departure from the organization came as quite a surprise, since most were expecting him to stay on as GM under new president of baseball operations David Stearns. Now, however, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Eppler would have been fired had he not resigned, and thus, he will be paid for the two years remaining on his guaranteed contract. Sherman notes that the inquiry is still ongoing, and it is unlikely MLB will announce a ruling before the end of the World Series. Given the scope of the investigation, it’s not hard to understand why the team chose to part ways with Eppler; Stearns has a busy enough offseason ahead of him as it is.
- Sticking with the Mets, Martino reports that other teams are “under the impression” that Mets coaches are essentially available for hire, given the likelihood that a new manager will come in and clean house. Indeed, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner is already drawing interest from at least one other club, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. However, Hefner prefers to wait and see if he fits into the team’s future plans (in other words, if the new manager wants to keep him on) before he takes an interview with another club. Hefner, who played for the Mets from 2012-13, has already survived two managerial hirings in his four years as the pitching coach, so it makes sense that he isn’t ready to pack his bags just yet.
- Back to the Phillies, the team has announced that bullpen coach Dave Lundquist will not return for the 2024 season. Lundquist, 50, has been with the organization since 2018, starting as the pitching coach for Triple-A Lehigh Valley before becoming assistant pitching coach and then bullpen coach for the major league team. The bullpen has become a legitimate strength under his guidance, going from one of the worst in the league to one of the best in just three seasons. The Phillies are also parting ways with assistant hitting coach Jason Camilli, who joined the staff in 2022 after spending 15 years as a minor league hitting coach with the Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Reds organizations.