Rockies Outright Ryan Rolison
The Rockies announced that left-hander Ryan Rolison has been outrighted off their major league roster, indicating he passed through waivers unclaimed. He will stick in the organization without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster.
Rolison, now 26, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2018 draft, getting selected 22nd overall. But he hasn’t been able to deliver much on that promise so far, mostly due to injuries. The minor leagues were wiped out by the pandemic in 2020 and Rolison was then limited to just 16 starts in 2021, missing over two months due to an appendectomy. Nonetheless, the Rockies added him to their 40-man roster in November of 2021 to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
In 2022, the Rockies placed Rolison on the 60-day injured list in April due to a shoulder strain and he missed that entire season, eventually undergoing surgery in June. Since he was on the major league injured list, he collected a full year of service time despite not making his major league debut. He wasn’t fully healthy at the start of the 2023 campaign and was on the 60-day injured list to begin the campaign, but was reinstated and optioned at the end of May. But shoulder issues quickly resurfaced and he was placed on the 60-day IL again in July, not returning to action in the second half. There’s no IL in the offseason, so Rolison was on the verge of needing to be added back to the roster, but the club has outrighted him instead.
The current state of his shoulder isn’t known but he only made four appearances in the minors this year, tossing just 11 innings. The combination of the pandemic year, the appendectomy and the shoulder issues has resulted in Rolison throwing just 82 2/3 over the past four years combined. Despite his pedigree as a former first-rounder, it’s not surprising that none of the 30 clubs is currently willing to give him a roster spot, given all the ongoing uncertainty around his health.
If he can get past the shoulder issues in the future, he should be able to earn his way back into the plans in Colorado. The Rockies have very little certainty on their pitching staff right now and could easily fit him back onto the roster if he shows any hope of getting back on track.
The Rockies are currently slated to start the offseason with a 40-man roster count of 35, though future transactions could obviously alter that.
Giants Interested In Bob Melvin As Manager
As recently-fired manager Gabe Kapler interviews for the top baseball operations job in Boston, the Giants have put their search for his replacement on hold temporarily, per The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly. While the club still hopes to have a new manager in place by the time free agency opens next month, Baggarly notes that the club is waiting for clearance to interview a final set of candidates.
Chief among those potential candidates mentioned is Padres manager Bob Melvin. Melvin, 61, is under contract with the Padres for the 2024 season, meaning that San Diego would have to grant their division rival permission to interview their manager. As unlikely as such a scenario may seem on the surface, it’s well known around baseball that Melvin and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have a contentious relationship and have been at odds throughout much of Melvin’s tenure with the organization, a wrinkle that could make the Padres more amenable to allow Melvin to interview for the role.
While the club indicated that both Preller and Melvin would return to the Padres in their current roles for the 2024 season earlier this month, Baggarly relays that Melvin is “expected” to be open to the opportunity to interview with the Giants, if granted permission to do so by the Padres. Melvin, of course, has significant ties to the Bay Area after managing the Oakland A’s for eleven seasons, from 2011 to 2021. During his tenure with the A’s, Melvin won the AL Manager of the Year award in both 2012 and 2018, while finishing in the top four on three other occasions with the club. The A’s ultimately had a combined record of 853-764 with Melvin at the helm, an impressive feat considering the club’s consistently low payroll numbers.
Prior to his tenure in Oakland, Melvin served as manager of the Mariners from 2003-04 and managed the Diamondbacks for five seasons, from 2005-09. Melvin won NL Manager of the Year in 2007 with Arizona, making him one of just eight managers in the history of the award to win in both leagues. For his managerial career, Melvin’s record is 1517-1425, good for a winning percentage of .516.
Melvin is far from the only candidate the Giants are looking into as they search for their next manager, of course. Baggarly notes that former Giants hitting coach Donnie Ecker, who is currently the offensive coordinator for the Rangers, is another name the Giants are currently waiting on with the Rangers still in the midst of a postseason push, while Mariners bullpen and quality control coach Stephen Vogt is already known to have interviewed for the role. San Francisco has also interviewed several internal candidates, including interim manager Kai Correa and assistant coach Alyssa Nakken, who became the first known woman to interview for a big league managerial job.
Red Sox Interview Gabe Kapler In GM Search; Kim Ng Declines Interview
12:11pm: Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive have now reported that Ng has declined to interview for Boston’s baseball operations vacancy, despite what the pair describe as strong interest in Ng from the Red Sox. Ng’s reasons for declining the interview are not yet known.
11:45am: In their ongoing search for Chaim Bloom’s replacement as head of baseball operations in Boston, the Red Sox have interviewed another external candidate, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe: former Phillies and Giants manager Gabe Kapler.
Kapler, 48, is something of an unorthodox candidate to take the top baseball operations job for the Red Sox. Though he has previous front office experience as director of player development for the Dodgers from 2014-2017, most of his baseball experience has come on the field and in the dugout; he was a player in the major leagues for six different teams across twelve seasons before serving as manager of the Phillies from 2018-2019 before being replaced by Joe Girardi. From there, he was promptly hired to replace Bruce Bochy in San Francisco, and managed there for four seasons before being fired just before the end of the 2023 campaign.
That being said, Kapler has plenty of ties to Boston. His major league playing career saw him play parts of four seasons for the Red Sox, including 136 games during the club’s curse-breaking 2004 season that saw them win the World Series for the first time since 1918. After initially retiring following the 2006 season, Kapler took a job as the manager of Boston’s High-A affiliate in Greenville for the 2007 season before making a comeback as a big league player from 2008-2010.
What’s more, Kapler is a fairly well-respected and decorated big league manager. Though his teams have made the postseason just once during his six seasons in the dugout, his teams have never significantly under-performed preseason expectations, and during his Giants tenure the club typically outperformed their projections. Most notable of those over-performances, of course, was San Francisco’s 107-win 2021 campaign that saw Kapler win the NL Manager of the Year award in a nearly unanimous vote. PECOTA’s projections that season gave San Francisco a projected win total of just 75, while Fangraphs projected the club to win 76. The club also outperformed it’s projections in 2020 and 2022, though not to the same staggering degree as in 2021.
Kapler is hardly the only external candidate the Red Sox are currently discussing, as Cubs assistant GM Craig Breslow, Twins GM Thad Levine, and former Pirates GM Neal Huntington are among the other candidates that have interviewed for the top job in Boston, along with internal candidates such as assistant GMs Eddie Romero and Paul Groopman. Per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo, Kapler is reportedly something of a long shot to ultimately land the top job in Boston. Speier previously described Breslow as a “leading candidate” for the position as the club heads into the next phase of their search.
Cotillo adds that Kapler is believed to be interested in both on-field and front office roles as he seeks his next job after departing San Francisco. Though he’s seemingly only interviewed to run the baseball operations department in Boston at this point, there’s certainly nothing preventing Kapler from returning to the Red Sox organization in another capacity should the club decide to go in another direction for their top job.
The Red Sox have seen a number of high-profile candidates decline to interview for the position, including former Astros GM James Click and former Marlins president Michael Hill. Another high profile candidate who has been rumored for the position is former Marlins GM Kim Ng, who recently declined her end of a mutual option with Miami after ownership decided to pick up their side of the option rather than offer Ng an extension while looking to hire a president of baseball operations above her. While her departure from Miami seemingly opened the door to her joining the Red Sox, Cotillo cautions that multiple sources recently “threw cold water” on the idea of Ng matching up with Boston.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Tampa Bay Rays
In conjunction with the recent offseason outlook, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald held a Rays-specific chat. Click here to read the transcript.
Central Notes: Cubs, Molina, Royals
The Cubs are facing some uncertainty in their rotation early this offseason, as veteran right-handers Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman both have contracts featuring options for the 2024 campaign. The club holds a $16MM team option on Hendricks that features a $1.5MM buyout, while Stroman can opt out of the final year of his contract with Chicago, leaving $21MM on the table to return to the open market. Though option decisions aren’t due until five days after the World Series concludes, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes that both Hendricks and Stroman are “expected” to remain with the club in 2024.
Picking up Hendricks’s club option seems to be something of a no-brainer for the Cubs, given how well he pitched last year. After a shoulder injury wiped out most of the soft-tossing righty’s 2022 season and the beginning of his 2023, Hendricks rebounded to make 24 starts for the Cubs, pitching to a 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 137 innings of work. In a market where even bounce back starters can get two-year guarantees in the range of $12.5MM (as the likes of Sean Manaea, Andrew Heaney, and Ross Stripling did last offseason), a $14.5MM decision for one year of Hendricks is a sensible investment.
Stroman’s option decision, on the other hand, is more complicated. Multi-year offers that would beat Stroman’s $21MM total salary for 2024 will surely be available to the right-hander this offseason if he decides to test the open market. While he appeared to be a good bet to approach or perhaps even beat the yearly salary offered by his option on the open market early in the season, when he was dominating for the Cubs to the tune of a 2.28 ERA across his first 16 starts of the season, he figures to be a long-shot to receive a comparable AAV this offseason after battling injuries and ineffectiveness in the second half, with an 8.29 ERA over his final 38 innings of work this year.
If both players do remain in Chicago with their options exercised, that will eat up a combined $37MM in payroll space for the club this offseason. As noted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes in the Cubs installment of our Offseason Outlook series, Stroman and Hendricks returning to Chicago figures to push the club’s commitments well over $200MM for luxury tax purposes, leaving little room for the Cubs to maneuver this offseason without exceeding the first tax threshold, which will sit at $237MM this offseason.
More from around MLB’s central divisions:
- The Cardinals were recently reported to have interest in bringing longtime catcher Yadier Molina back into the fold just one season after his retirement, this time as a member of the coaching staff. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat provided more details on the situation this morning, indicating that Molina reportedly has interest in acting as the club’s bench coach. As Jones notes, the contract status of current bench coach Joe McEwing is unclear, though he adds that it’s believed the Cardinals at least hold an option on his services for 2024. Jones also notes the difficult situation that Molina’s presence as bench coach could create for manager Oli Marmol; Marmol is entering the final year of his contract with the club next season and would likely face greater pressure in 2024 with a player of Molina’s status within the organization acting as his number two, particularly after Molina got his feet wet in a managerial role as skipper of team Puerto Rico during the World Baseball Classic earlier this year.
- The Royals lost a longtime member of their front office yesterday, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that assistant GM for baseball administration Jin Wong is departing the organization. Wong, who per Rosenthal is leaving Kansas City “of his own accord,” had been in the organization for 24 years. MLB.com’s Anne Rogers relays that Wong played key roles in contract negotiations for key players in the organization’s recent history, including Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain, with much of his role being dealing with Kansas City’s budget and payroll management.
The Opener: ALCS, NLCS, Rays Chat
As the 2023 postseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Astros tie up the ALCS:
The Astros secured their second consecutive ALCS victory last night, pummeling the Rangers in Arlington for a 10-3 win. The victory for Houston ties up the series at two, with one more left to play at Globe Life Field this afternoon before the teams return to Houston for Game 5 on Sunday. Veteran second baseman Jose Altuve carried the night for the Astros, recording three hits with two doubles and a walk, scoring three times and knocking in one. Shortstop Corey Seager and outfielder Adolis Garcia tried to keep things competitive for the Rangers, as both went 2-for-4 with a home run, but the Astros bullpen shut down the rest of Texas’s lineup after a shaky 2 1/3 inning start from right-hander Jose Urquidy.
The Rangers will look to avoid being swept out of their three ALCS home games this evening, with the first pitch of Game 5 scheduled for 4:07pm CT. Tonight’s game will feature a rematch between left-hander Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA, 2.08 this postseason) and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (3.22 ERA, 1.42 this postseason). Montgomery won the pitching duel between the pair in Game 1, during which Verlander allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings of work while the southpaw silenced Houston’s bats for 6 1/3 scoreless frames.
2. DBacks stay in the NLCS with walk-off:
Much of last night’s game was dominated by a pitchers’ duel between Phillies left-hander Ranger Suarez and Diamondbacks righty Brandon Pfaadt, who went 5 1/3 and 5 2/3 scoreless innings, respectively. Pfaadt was particularly impressive, striking out nine while issuing no walks and allowing just two hits. As the game was handed over the the clubs’ bullpens, the game stay relatively low scoring, with first baseman Bryce Harper scoring on a wild pitch to represent Philadelphia’s lone run of the game. In the end, Arizona managed to walk it off on a single off the bat of Ketel Marte as veteran closer Craig Kimbrel struggled for the Phillies, allowing two walks and two hits while recording just one out.
Looking ahead to this evening’s game, which is poised to start at 7:07pm CT, Arizona will try to keep the momentum going and tie the series against Phillies Game 4 starter Cristopher Sanchez. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, will counter with a bullpen game started by left-hander Joe Mantiply. Right-hander Slade Cecconi is likely Arizona’s best long-relief option ahead of today’s bullpen game, while Sanchez will be backed up by a handful of multi-inning options, including regular season starters Taijuan Walker and Michael Lorenzen.
3. Offseason Outlook Chat:
The Rays installment of of the 2023-24 edition of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series was published yesterday, as the club faces a choice between a record payroll in 2024 and radically altering a team that won 99 games this year. If you have any questions about the coming offseason in Tampa following the club being swept out of the Wild Card series at the hands of the Rangers, you can tune in at 11:00am CT for a live chat with MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald. This link will allow you to submit a question in advance, participate live, or read the transcript afterward.
Hall Of Fame Announces 2024 Era Committee Candidates
This afternoon, the Baseball Hall of Fame announced its eight nominees for the 2024 Era Committee. Previously known as the Veterans Committee, the Era Committee is a 16-person panel that considers nominees outside the purview of induction for players via the Baseball Writers Association of America.
The 2024 class concerns managers, executives and umpires whose primary contributions to the game have come since 1980. Last year’s committee focused on players within that same timeframe and elected Fred McGriff. Next winter’s nominees will be individuals who most impacted the sport before 1980.
Here are the candidates this winter:
- Cito Gaston (manager)
- Davey Johnson (manager)
- Jim Leyland (manager)
- Ed Montague (umpire)
- Hank Peters (executive)
- Lou Piniella (manager)
- Joe West (umpire)
- Bill White (executive)
The managers are likely most familiar to recent fans. Gaston led the Blue Jays for 13 seasons over two stints. His first stretch at the helm, spanning 1989-97, was very successful. Gaston first took over in May ’89 when the club dismissed Jimy Williams after a 12-24 start. They finished with a 77-49 record under Gaston’s watch, claiming the AL East title. That kicked off a stretch of four division wins in a five-year span. While they were bounced in the ALCS in 1989 and ’91, the Jays won back-to-back World Series in 1992 and ’93.
Johnson managed almost 2500 games in 17 seasons between 1984-2013. He began with the Mets, leading them to 108 wins and their dramatic World Series victory over the Red Sox by his third season. While that was the only title of his managerial career, Johnson led the Mets to six straight winning campaigns. He led the Reds (1993-95), Orioles (1996-97) and Dodgers (1999-2000) during the following decade. Johnson concluded his career with three seasons at the helm of the Nationals from 2011-13. He led at least one playoff team in four of his five stops. His teams won 56.2% of their regular season contests.
Leyland had a 22-year career as a big league skipper. He managed just under 3500 games between the Pirates, Marlins, Rockies and Tigers. He led Pittsburgh to three straight division titles between 1990-92 as part of an 11-year run in the Steel City. During his first season managing in Florida, Leyland led a 92-win team from a Wild Card berth to a championship in just the fifth season in Marlins history. He didn’t find success during a lone season in Colorado but led the Tigers to a pennant in 2006, his first season at the helm in Detroit. Leyland managed through 2013, winning three straight division titles from 2011-13 and claiming another AL pennant in 2012. He’s 18th in career wins with 1,769 regular season victories.
Piniella is just ahead of him on that leaderboard, ranking 17th with 1,835 wins. The fiery skipper had a 23-year managerial career between the Yankees, Reds, Mariners, Devil Rays and Cubs. He led the Reds to the 1990 World Series during his first season in Cincinnati. While that was the only time that one of his teams would play in the Fall Classic, he had multiple playoff appearances in Seattle and Chicago. Piniella was at the helm for the ’01 Mariners team tied for the all-time wins record (116) and led consecutive division winners with the Cubs in 2007-08.
Peters was a high-ranking executive for the A’s, Indians and Orioles between 1965-91. He helped construct the farm system for the A’s teams that won three World Series in the 1970’s, although he was no longer with the organization when the major league team blossomed. Peters was at the helm with Baltimore for their 1979 pennant and 1983 World Series victory. He led Cleveland in the late-’80s, helping set the stage for the Indians’ run of success the following decade.
White, a former star first baseman, served as president of the National League from 1989-94. He also had a lengthy broadcasting run as part of a career that spanned five decades. As a player, he finished in third place in 1964 NL MVP balloting for the Cardinals’ World Series winner and is part of the team’s Hall of Fame.
Montague managed over 4,000 MLB games from 1974-2009. West, one of the sport’s most famous umpires, officiated a record 5,460 contests between 1976 and his retirement in February 2022.
Nominees need 12 of 16 votes to gain induction. The voting will take place during December’s Winter Meetings.
Wander Suero Elects Free Agency
Reliever Wander Suero has elected free agency after being outrighted by the Dodgers, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. There’d been no prior indication Suero was on waivers. The move clears a spot on the 40-man roster.
Los Angeles inked Suero to a minor league contract last offseason. He’d spend the majority of the season with their Triple-A team in Oklahoma City. The 32-year-old righty pitched in 47 games for OKC, working to a 3.26 ERA through 49 2/3 innings. That was the eighth-best run prevention mark among the 127 pitchers to surpass 40 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Suero fanned just under 26% of opposing hitters in Triple-A, although he also handed out free passes at an alarming 11.2% clip. The Dodgers selected him onto the big league roster twice. He pitched eight innings of seven-run ball, punching out nine while walking five. He leaned mostly on a cutter that averaged 90.6 MPH during his abbreviated MLB look.
This was Suero’s first major league work in two years. He pitched for the Nationals from 2018-21, logging a career-high 71 1/3 innings for the 2019 World Series team. He posted slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers during his time in Washington. Suero managed a sub-4.00 ERA in two of his first three seasons before a homer spike in 2021 led to a 6.33 ERA in 42 2/3 frames.
Suero has over three years of MLB service and would have been eligible for arbitration. While his projected $900K salary wasn’t significant, he always seemed in jeopardy of losing his spot on the 40-man roster. He’s likely to sign another minor league deal this offseason.
Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays continued their impressive run of success while working with limited funds. Despite having one of the lowest payrolls in the league, they made the playoffs for a fifth straight season in 2023. Their offseasons generally see plenty of roster turnover, but it’s possible they spend a little bit more this winter in order to keep the gang together.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Wander Franco, SS: $174MM through 2032 (includes buyout on 2033 club option)
- Zach Eflin, RHP: $29MM through 2025
- Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $27MM through 2026 (includes buyout on 2027 club option)
- Tyler Glasnow, RHP: $25MM through 2024
- Yandy Díaz, IF: $18MM through 2025 (includes 2026 club option with no buyout)
- Manuel Margot, OF: $12MM through 2024 (includes buyout on 2025 club option)
- Brandon Lowe, IF: $9.75MM through 2024 (includes buyout on 2024 club option; deal also has club option for ’25)
- Pete Fairbanks, RHP: $8.48MM through 2025 (includes buyout on 2026 club option)
Option Decisions
- None
2024 financial commitments: $76.82MM
Total future commitments: $303.23MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Raimel Tapia (5.144): $2.4MM
- Shawn Armstrong (5.113): $1.8MM
- Andrew Kittredge (5.070): $2.3MM
- Jalen Beeks (5.003): $1.8MM
- Harold Ramírez (4.124): $4.4MM
- Colin Poche (4.114): $2.1MM
- Aaron Civale (4.058): $4.6MM
- Zack Littell (4.043): $1.7MM
- Christian Bethancourt (4.038): $2.3MM
- Cole Sulser (3.157): $900K
- Jason Adam (3.132): $3MM
- Randy Arozarena (3.129): $9MM
- Drew Rasmussen (3.111): $2.2MM
- Isaac Paredes (2.160): $3.2MM
- Shane McClanahan (2.158): $3.6MM
- Josh Fleming (2.144): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Tapia, Beeks, Bethancourt, Sulser, Fleming
Free Agents
The 2023 campaign started out incredibly strong for the Rays, with the club winning its first 13 games and jumping out to a big lead in the American League East. But the injuries mounted as the season went along, forcing the club to limp into the playoffs via a Wild Card spot before getting euthanized by the Rangers, as Texas outscored them 11-1 in the two-game sweep.
This would normally be the time where speculation would turn to which players the club will trade before the next season. Given their tight budgets, the Rays generally operate by trading players as they get more expensive and closer to free agency, with Tommy Pham and Blake Snell being some of the examples from recent years. It’s possible that this offseason will be different, as president of baseball operations Erik Neander recently said that the club might move the payroll up in order to limit the turnover. That’s partially related to their new stadium funding deal, which is kind of sort of almost official.
Time will tell whether that comes to fruition or to what extent. The data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts has never seen them push beyond the $80MM range in terms of an Opening Day payroll, but Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll to be around $125MM right now. A few of their 16 arbitration-eligible players will surely end up non-tendered, which will cut into that number a bit, but it will still take a substantial payroll increase if the club legitimately wants to keep the roster intact.
Even if there aren’t a lot of changes this winter, there would still be question marks, particularly on the pitching staff. Each of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan required elbow surgery in 2023, with each of their respective recoveries expected to carry into next year. Springs underwent Tommy John in April and is probably out until the middle of 2024, even in a best-case scenario. Rasmussen had the slightly milder internal brace procedure in July, which puts him out of action until at least midseason as well. McClanahan had TJS later in the year and is expected to miss all of 2024 as a result.
There are some names that can be pencilled into next year’s rotation, as each of Zach Eflin and Tyler Glasnow are under contract. They both have fairly spotty injury histories but they were each largely healthy in 2023. Aaron Civale didn’t finish strong but has a solid track record and can be retained via arbitration.
After that, things get less certain. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from his Tommy John surgery and should be healthy enough for next year, but he may have workload concerns. He only pitched 40 innings in 2022 between the majors and minors, and 92 the year before. There were no minor leagues in 2020 due to the pandemic and Baz was largely in short-season ball before that, meaning he’s yet to reach 100 innings in a season.
Zack Littell was gradually stretched out as the 2023 season wore on, similar to Springs and Rasmussen in previous years, though the results weren’t quite as emphatic. Littell tossed 87 innings as a Ray with a 3.93 ERA but striking out just 19.8% of opponents. His 2.5% walk rate in that time was excellent but is probably unsustainable in the long run. Amongst qualified pitchers this year, only George Kirby limited free passes at that rate.
Taj Bradley is on the depth chart as well, though he’s not a sure thing. He came into 2023 as one of the top pitching prospects in the league but posted an ERA of 5.59 in his first 104 2/3 innings. He won’t turn 23 years old until March and can certainly still put it together, but there’s clearly more development needed.
The club is generally unafraid to be creative in constructing its pitching staff, frequently deploying bullpen games or openers to get through a season. Perhaps they feel this group gives them enough of a rotation to start the year, with Springs and Rasmussen options to jump in later in the season. If that doesn’t come to fruition, reinforcements could always be found at the deadline.
In the bullpen, the club generally does a good job of finding quality arms without paying too much, and that could be the case again next year. Each of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Colin Poche, Andrew Kittredge and Shawn Armstrong had an ERA of 3.09 or lower in 2023. Fairbanks is already under contract for around $3.82MM next year and none of the other four are projected to catch him via the arbitration process.
On the position player side of things, the shortstop position is a giant question mark given ongoing investigation into Wander Franco‘s alleged inappropriate relationships with underage girls. It’s a fairly unprecedented situation and it’s unclear how long it will take to be resolved, but the club will likely operate under the assumption that they can’t rely on him. That likely leaves some combination of Taylor Walls, Osleivis Basabe and Junior Caminero covering the position, with Carson Williams perhaps debuting at some point later in the year.
Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, Yandy Díaz and Harold Ramírez should be able to cover the non-shortstop positions, with Curtis Mead and Jonathan Aranda in the mix as well. The outfield mix seems solid with Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Manuel Margot and Luke Raley all slated to be back.
Catcher is a bit less certain, as Christian Bethancourt took a step back from a solid 2022 season. René Pinto got a decent amount of playing time down the stretch and held his own, so perhaps the club is content to give him a shot to take over as the lead backstop and bump Bethancourt to the backup role or cut him loose.
That still gives the club a strong core, but it’s also fair to wonder what kind of cuts may be coming. It’s not a guarantee that the payroll is going to suddenly get a 50% jump from the $80MM range to the $120MM range, so we might still see some classic Rays trades designed at saving some money and continually restocking the farm. Even if they do have that kind of money, it might be prudent to free some of it up in order to pursue upgrades to the starting staff or behind the plate.
Trading one of those arbitration relievers could still leave them with a solid bullpen, for instance. Arozarena is already set to make a projected $9MM, with two arbitration seasons after that. He’s still a bargain at that price but the Rays have shown that these kinds of players usually get dealt before reaching free agency. Ramírez hits well but is a poor defender, only getting 13 starts as a fielder in 2023. $4.4MM is still a good price for a solid bat but a Rays team that loves versatility could probably find a way to live without him. Lowe (Brandon, not Josh) is now just one year away from the end of his deal, perhaps allowing the club to make him available and replace him from within. Margot might be squeezed in that outfield picture a bit. He wouldn’t have a ton of trade value as a glove-first player with mounting injury concerns and declining defensive grades, but his deal has just one year and $12MM remaining. Many fans of rival clubs might look to Glasnow’s $25MM salary and dream of getting him out of Tampa, but the club probably can’t afford to thin out their starting depth any further.
Moving any of those players could help with the depleted starting staff, perhaps in a direct way by bringing pitching back the other way. Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill and Paul Blackburn are some pitchers speculated to be available. The White Sox seem to be planning on contending, but Dylan Cease would be a logical trade chip if they pivot. The same goes from Griffin Canning and Patrick Sandoval of the Angels or Mitch Keller of the Pirates. Perhaps the Mariners feel they have enough pitching to part with Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo while still contending.
Or perhaps the Rays will trade for prospects and then use the new payroll space to pursue a free agent pitcher. They wouldn’t be likely to shop at the top of the market, of course, but a targeted strike similar to last year’s Eflin deal wouldn’t be totally shocking. Perhaps they feel they can get the best out of someone like Jack Flaherty, since they almost acquired him at the deadline. Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha or Sean Manaea should be similarly in that mid-rotation or back-end batch of free agents.
The Rays are often a tough team to project, given their willingness to churn the roster perhaps more than any other club, even if that means moving star players. The comments from Neander suggest this winter might be different, but it’s tough to accept that at face value when it contradicts their established modus operandi. However it plays out, the Rays are starting from a decent position. Their departing free agents are mostly relief pitchers, leaving most of their 99-win team intact for now. The starting pitching looks a bit flimsy but that’s been the case in the past and the Rays always seem to find a way to wriggle to success regardless.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Rays-centric chat on 10-20-23. Click here to read the transcript.
Latest On Red Sox, Craig Breslow
The Red Sox have been searching for their next head of baseball operations since firing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom last month. It appears that search is beginning to pick up steam, as The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney reported earlier today sources have indicated the Red Sox are in “advanced discussions” with Craig Breslow, who currently serves as assistant GM and senior vice president of pitching for the Cubs, after he interviewed with the club for their top baseball operations job.
That being said, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com pumps the breaks on those rumors, relaying that sources have indicated Mooney’s characterization of the talks “may be premature.” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, meanwhile, stakes out something of a middle ground between those two reports, noting that a source described Breslow as “a leading candidate” for the top job with the Red Sox, while simultaneously noting that the process isn’t yet approaching the finish line. Speier goes on to note that the Sox have been conducting first-round interviews this week, and that the search appears to be approaching its second round.
Both Mooney and McAdam suggest that, while Breslow’s initial interview was for the job at the head of the Red Sox baseball operations department, Boston may look to hire a more experienced president of baseball operations to lead the department while installing Breslow as the new president’s number two in a GM role. While McAdam suggests that such an arrangement could allow Breslow to “grow into the No. 1 role after a few years,” Mooney adds that if the Red Sox look to add two executives without making Breslow the top decision maker, the Cubs would be in position to make a “substantial offer” for Breslow to stay in his current role with Chicago. Breslow sits below president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins in the Cubs’ front office chain of command, alongside fellow assistant GM Ehsan Bokhari.
The Cubs have seen significant developments in their player development apparatus on the pitching side during Breslow’s tenure with the club, which began in 2019. The 2023 season in particular saw many of Chicago’s younger arms take impressive steps forward, with left-hander Justin Steele emerging as a candidate for the NL Cy Young award, Adbert Alzolay establishing himself as a quality closer and younger arms like righty Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks flashing mid-to-back of the rotation potential with solid seasons of their own.
Breslow, of course, is far from the only candidate in the mix for the top job in Boston. Though high-profile candidates like former Astros GM James Click and former Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels have declined the opportunity to interview for the position, other experienced candidates like former Pirates GM Neal Huntington and current Twins GM Thad Levine have reportedly interviewed for the position. The Red Sox are also considering a number of internal candidates, including assistant GMs Eddie Romero and Mike Groopman, as well as VP of amateur scouting & player development Paul Toboni.