Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays continued their impressive run of success while working with limited funds. Despite having one of the lowest payrolls in the league, they made the playoffs for a fifth straight season in 2023. Their offseasons generally see plenty of roster turnover, but it’s possible they spend a little bit more this winter in order to keep the gang together.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Wander Franco, SS: $174MM through 2032 (includes buyout on 2033 club option)
- Zach Eflin, RHP: $29MM through 2025
- Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $27MM through 2026 (includes buyout on 2027 club option)
- Tyler Glasnow, RHP: $25MM through 2024
- Yandy Díaz, IF: $18MM through 2025 (includes 2026 club option with no buyout)
- Manuel Margot, OF: $12MM through 2024 (includes buyout on 2025 club option)
- Brandon Lowe, IF: $9.75MM through 2024 (includes buyout on 2024 club option; deal also has club option for ’25)
- Pete Fairbanks, RHP: $8.48MM through 2025 (includes buyout on 2026 club option)
Option Decisions
- None
2024 financial commitments: $76.82MM
Total future commitments: $303.23MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Raimel Tapia (5.144): $2.4MM
- Shawn Armstrong (5.113): $1.8MM
- Andrew Kittredge (5.070): $2.3MM
- Jalen Beeks (5.003): $1.8MM
- Harold Ramírez (4.124): $4.4MM
- Colin Poche (4.114): $2.1MM
- Aaron Civale (4.058): $4.6MM
- Zack Littell (4.043): $1.7MM
- Christian Bethancourt (4.038): $2.3MM
- Cole Sulser (3.157): $900K
- Jason Adam (3.132): $3MM
- Randy Arozarena (3.129): $9MM
- Drew Rasmussen (3.111): $2.2MM
- Isaac Paredes (2.160): $3.2MM
- Shane McClanahan (2.158): $3.6MM
- Josh Fleming (2.144): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Tapia, Beeks, Bethancourt, Sulser, Fleming
Free Agents
The 2023 campaign started out incredibly strong for the Rays, with the club winning its first 13 games and jumping out to a big lead in the American League East. But the injuries mounted as the season went along, forcing the club to limp into the playoffs via a Wild Card spot before getting euthanized by the Rangers, as Texas outscored them 11-1 in the two-game sweep.
This would normally be the time where speculation would turn to which players the club will trade before the next season. Given their tight budgets, the Rays generally operate by trading players as they get more expensive and closer to free agency, with Tommy Pham and Blake Snell being some of the examples from recent years. It’s possible that this offseason will be different, as president of baseball operations Erik Neander recently said that the club might move the payroll up in order to limit the turnover. That’s partially related to their new stadium funding deal, which is kind of sort of almost official.
Time will tell whether that comes to fruition or to what extent. The data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts has never seen them push beyond the $80MM range in terms of an Opening Day payroll, but Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll to be around $125MM right now. A few of their 16 arbitration-eligible players will surely end up non-tendered, which will cut into that number a bit, but it will still take a substantial payroll increase if the club legitimately wants to keep the roster intact.
Even if there aren’t a lot of changes this winter, there would still be question marks, particularly on the pitching staff. Each of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan required elbow surgery in 2023, with each of their respective recoveries expected to carry into next year. Springs underwent Tommy John in April and is probably out until the middle of 2024, even in a best-case scenario. Rasmussen had the slightly milder internal brace procedure in July, which puts him out of action until at least midseason as well. McClanahan had TJS later in the year and is expected to miss all of 2024 as a result.
There are some names that can be pencilled into next year’s rotation, as each of Zach Eflin and Tyler Glasnow are under contract. They both have fairly spotty injury histories but they were each largely healthy in 2023. Aaron Civale didn’t finish strong but has a solid track record and can be retained via arbitration.
After that, things get less certain. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from his Tommy John surgery and should be healthy enough for next year, but he may have workload concerns. He only pitched 40 innings in 2022 between the majors and minors, and 92 the year before. There were no minor leagues in 2020 due to the pandemic and Baz was largely in short-season ball before that, meaning he’s yet to reach 100 innings in a season.
Zack Littell was gradually stretched out as the 2023 season wore on, similar to Springs and Rasmussen in previous years, though the results weren’t quite as emphatic. Littell tossed 87 innings as a Ray with a 3.93 ERA but striking out just 19.8% of opponents. His 2.5% walk rate in that time was excellent but is probably unsustainable in the long run. Amongst qualified pitchers this year, only George Kirby limited free passes at that rate.
Taj Bradley is on the depth chart as well, though he’s not a sure thing. He came into 2023 as one of the top pitching prospects in the league but posted an ERA of 5.59 in his first 104 2/3 innings. He won’t turn 23 years old until March and can certainly still put it together, but there’s clearly more development needed.
The club is generally unafraid to be creative in constructing its pitching staff, frequently deploying bullpen games or openers to get through a season. Perhaps they feel this group gives them enough of a rotation to start the year, with Springs and Rasmussen options to jump in later in the season. If that doesn’t come to fruition, reinforcements could always be found at the deadline.
In the bullpen, the club generally does a good job of finding quality arms without paying too much, and that could be the case again next year. Each of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Colin Poche, Andrew Kittredge and Shawn Armstrong had an ERA of 3.09 or lower in 2023. Fairbanks is already under contract for around $3.82MM next year and none of the other four are projected to catch him via the arbitration process.
On the position player side of things, the shortstop position is a giant question mark given ongoing investigation into Wander Franco‘s alleged inappropriate relationships with underage girls. It’s a fairly unprecedented situation and it’s unclear how long it will take to be resolved, but the club will likely operate under the assumption that they can’t rely on him. That likely leaves some combination of Taylor Walls, Osleivis Basabe and Junior Caminero covering the position, with Carson Williams perhaps debuting at some point later in the year.
Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, Yandy Díaz and Harold Ramírez should be able to cover the non-shortstop positions, with Curtis Mead and Jonathan Aranda in the mix as well. The outfield mix seems solid with Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Manuel Margot and Luke Raley all slated to be back.
Catcher is a bit less certain, as Christian Bethancourt took a step back from a solid 2022 season. René Pinto got a decent amount of playing time down the stretch and held his own, so perhaps the club is content to give him a shot to take over as the lead backstop and bump Bethancourt to the backup role or cut him loose.
That still gives the club a strong core, but it’s also fair to wonder what kind of cuts may be coming. It’s not a guarantee that the payroll is going to suddenly get a 50% jump from the $80MM range to the $120MM range, so we might still see some classic Rays trades designed at saving some money and continually restocking the farm. Even if they do have that kind of money, it might be prudent to free some of it up in order to pursue upgrades to the starting staff or behind the plate.
Trading one of those arbitration relievers could still leave them with a solid bullpen, for instance. Arozarena is already set to make a projected $9MM, with two arbitration seasons after that. He’s still a bargain at that price but the Rays have shown that these kinds of players usually get dealt before reaching free agency. Ramírez hits well but is a poor defender, only getting 13 starts as a fielder in 2023. $4.4MM is still a good price for a solid bat but a Rays team that loves versatility could probably find a way to live without him. Lowe (Brandon, not Josh) is now just one year away from the end of his deal, perhaps allowing the club to make him available and replace him from within. Margot might be squeezed in that outfield picture a bit. He wouldn’t have a ton of trade value as a glove-first player with mounting injury concerns and declining defensive grades, but his deal has just one year and $12MM remaining. Many fans of rival clubs might look to Glasnow’s $25MM salary and dream of getting him out of Tampa, but the club probably can’t afford to thin out their starting depth any further.
Moving any of those players could help with the depleted starting staff, perhaps in a direct way by bringing pitching back the other way. Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill and Paul Blackburn are some pitchers speculated to be available. The White Sox seem to be planning on contending, but Dylan Cease would be a logical trade chip if they pivot. The same goes from Griffin Canning and Patrick Sandoval of the Angels or Mitch Keller of the Pirates. Perhaps the Mariners feel they have enough pitching to part with Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo while still contending.
Or perhaps the Rays will trade for prospects and then use the new payroll space to pursue a free agent pitcher. They wouldn’t be likely to shop at the top of the market, of course, but a targeted strike similar to last year’s Eflin deal wouldn’t be totally shocking. Perhaps they feel they can get the best out of someone like Jack Flaherty, since they almost acquired him at the deadline. Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha or Sean Manaea should be similarly in that mid-rotation or back-end batch of free agents.
The Rays are often a tough team to project, given their willingness to churn the roster perhaps more than any other club, even if that means moving star players. The comments from Neander suggest this winter might be different, but it’s tough to accept that at face value when it contradicts their established modus operandi. However it plays out, the Rays are starting from a decent position. Their departing free agents are mostly relief pitchers, leaving most of their 99-win team intact for now. The starting pitching looks a bit flimsy but that’s been the case in the past and the Rays always seem to find a way to wriggle to success regardless.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Rays-centric chat on 10-20-23. Click here to read the transcript.
Latest On Red Sox, Craig Breslow
The Red Sox have been searching for their next head of baseball operations since firing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom last month. It appears that search is beginning to pick up steam, as The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney reported earlier today sources have indicated the Red Sox are in “advanced discussions” with Craig Breslow, who currently serves as assistant GM and senior vice president of pitching for the Cubs, after he interviewed with the club for their top baseball operations job.
That being said, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com pumps the breaks on those rumors, relaying that sources have indicated Mooney’s characterization of the talks “may be premature.” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, meanwhile, stakes out something of a middle ground between those two reports, noting that a source described Breslow as “a leading candidate” for the top job with the Red Sox, while simultaneously noting that the process isn’t yet approaching the finish line. Speier goes on to note that the Sox have been conducting first-round interviews this week, and that the search appears to be approaching its second round.
Both Mooney and McAdam suggest that, while Breslow’s initial interview was for the job at the head of the Red Sox baseball operations department, Boston may look to hire a more experienced president of baseball operations to lead the department while installing Breslow as the new president’s number two in a GM role. While McAdam suggests that such an arrangement could allow Breslow to “grow into the No. 1 role after a few years,” Mooney adds that if the Red Sox look to add two executives without making Breslow the top decision maker, the Cubs would be in position to make a “substantial offer” for Breslow to stay in his current role with Chicago. Breslow sits below president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins in the Cubs’ front office chain of command, alongside fellow assistant GM Ehsan Bokhari.
The Cubs have seen significant developments in their player development apparatus on the pitching side during Breslow’s tenure with the club, which began in 2019. The 2023 season in particular saw many of Chicago’s younger arms take impressive steps forward, with left-hander Justin Steele emerging as a candidate for the NL Cy Young award, Adbert Alzolay establishing himself as a quality closer and younger arms like righty Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks flashing mid-to-back of the rotation potential with solid seasons of their own.
Breslow, of course, is far from the only candidate in the mix for the top job in Boston. Though high-profile candidates like former Astros GM James Click and former Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels have declined the opportunity to interview for the position, other experienced candidates like former Pirates GM Neal Huntington and current Twins GM Thad Levine have reportedly interviewed for the position. The Red Sox are also considering a number of internal candidates, including assistant GMs Eddie Romero and Mike Groopman, as well as VP of amateur scouting & player development Paul Toboni.
Nick Krall Discusses Upcoming Reds Offseason
Reds GM Nick Krall spoke with reporters recently during the club’s end-of-season press conference, including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com and Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The presser covered a wide array of topics from the club’s offseason plans and budget, to a retrospective on Cincinnati’s inaction at the trade deadline this year, to the club’s impending club option decision on future Hall of Famer Joey Votto.
Regarding the trade deadline, Krall stood firm on his decision to largely stand pat this summer, only adding left-handed reliever Sam Moll to a club that was in first place in the NL Central on deadline day but wound up with a record of just 82-80 on the season after going just 23-31 after the calendar flipped to August. Starting pitching was by far the club’s biggest unfilled need, as they sported an MLB-worst rotation ERA of 5.91 following the trade deadline.
When asked about the club’s inaction, Krall noted that rival teams set exorbitant asking prices involving players who contributed to the major league roster this season. As relayed by Sheldon, Krall indicated that right-hander Connor Phillips, infielders Matt McLain and Spencer Steer, first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand and left-hander Andrew Abbott were all checked in upon by rival clubs this past summer, with Abbott in particular being the requested return for a rental player.
Looking ahead to the offseason, the Reds have a glut of position players between which they’ll need to sort through, to say nothing of potential external additions or the looming decision on Votto. On the infield, the club sports McLain, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte, Elly De La Cruz, and Jonathan India all in need of regular at-bats. Meanwhile, the outfield picture features Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Stuart Fairchild, and Will Benson. Nick Senzel is another piece of the puzzle with experience in both the infield and the outfield, but he appears to be a candidate for a trade or non-tender after another weak offensive season where he slashed just .236/.297/.399 in 330 trips to the plate.
Krall made clear that the club hasn’t discussed moving either India or De La Cruz to the outfield as a potential way to clear the infield logjam. He did note, however, that Steer played well in the outfield corners across 38 starts at the positions this season, leaving the door open to more time spent on the grass in 2024. Of course, installing Steer as a regular outfielder would cut into the playing time available for Friedl, Fraley, Fairchild, and Benson. That’s particularly true of Fraley and Benson, both of whom were largely limited to the outfield corners and DH this season with little to no reps in center. However the club ultimately sorts out playing time for their wealth of young players, Krall made clear that manager David Bell will return in 2024- hardly a surprise after the club extended him earlier this year- and that he’ll retain his entire coaching staff for next season, as well.
Regarding Votto, Krall indicated that the club hasn’t yet discussed whether or not to pick up his $20MM club option for 2024. The option is effectively a $13MM decision given the $7MM buyout Votto stands to be paid if the option is declined. The decision on Votto is due five days after the World Series. In discussing Votto’s option, Krall revealed that the organization has yet to determine the club’s baseball operations budget for 2024, with meetings regarding the topic scheduled for next week. That said, the club’s unsettled budget situation hasn’t stopped the Reds from broaching the topic of extensions with some of their young players, as Krall noting that more pre-arbitration extensions in the vein of the one right-hander Hunter Greene inked earlier this year were a “possibility.”
The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer adds that a major stumbling block for the sides is how much playing time will be available to Votto next year. Even in moving Steer to the outfield full-time, the Reds would have five infielders in need of regular playing time next season on top of the crowded outfield mix. Offseason trades could help clear the positional logjam, of course, but the sort of trades available to the Reds this offseason, much like their impending decision on Votto, would be impacted by the club’s budget for next season. Wittenmyer adds that Brandon Belt‘s impending departure for Votto’s hometown Blue Jays could add another wrinkle for the sides, as he describes Toronto as “the one franchise besides the Reds that would benefit from significant marquee name value from Votto beyond baseball performance.”
Offseason Chat Transcript: Los Angeles Dodgers
In conjunction with the recent offseason outlook, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald held a Dodgers-specific chat. Click here to read the transcript.
Bruce Zimmermann Undergoes Core Muscle Surgery
The Orioles announced to reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, that left-hander Bruce Zimmermann underwent core muscle surgery today. He is expected to be ready for Spring Training.
Zimmermann, 29 in February, has pitched for the O’s in each of the past four seasons, tossing 158 1/3 innings with a 5.57 earned run average. In 2023, he spent most of the season on optional assignment. He made just seven appearances for the big league club, with an ERA of 4.73 in those.
He made 21 starts at the Triple-A level with a 4.42 ERA in 99 2/3 innings. He struck out 24.6% of opponents at that level, walked 8.7% of them and got grounders at a 45% rate. If not for a .377 batting average on balls in play and 67.1% strand rate, his results likely would have been better, which is why his FIP was over a run better than his ERA at 3.25.
The O’s had an excellent season in 2023 but starting pitching still stands out as a target area. Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty are both set to become free agents in a couple of weeks, leaving the O’s with Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer in three rotation spots. John Means finished the season with an elbow injury but would be in there if healthy next year. Candidates for rounding out the group include Tyler Wells, DL Hall and Cole Irvin, though Irvin will be out of options next year. Assuming Zimmermann is recovered by the spring as expected, he would be in that mix as well.
Michael Fulmer Expected To Miss 2024 After Undergoing Elbow Surgery
Right-hander Michael Fulmer underwent UCL revision surgery on his right elbow on Wednesday, the Cubs revealed to reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic). He is expected to miss the entire 2024 season.
It’s yet another frustrating hurdle for Fulmer, 30, who has a few of them in his career. He was the American League Rookie of the Year in 2016 after posting an earned run average of 3.06 in 26 starts for the Tigers that year. His performance dipped a bit over the next two years and then he required Tommy John surgery in 2019, wiping out that entire season.
He returned to the mound in 2020 but registered an ERA of 8.78 in 10 starts that year, prompting a move to the bullpen. That proved to be a great pivot for him, as he finished 2021 with an ERA of 2.97 and then had a solid mark of 3.39 in 2022, the latter season including a deadline trade to the Twins.
He qualified for free agency and was able to land a one-year, $4MM deal with the Cubs for the 2023 season. Unfortunately, it was a bumpy season for Fulmer, due to both inconsistency and injury. After an appearance on May 27, he was sitting on an ERA of 7.84 through 20 2/3 innings. But he got in a good groove from there, with an ERA of 1.83 over his next 34 1/3 innings. But he then allowed three earned runs against the Tigers on August 21, making one appearance after that before landing on the injured list due to a right forearm strain. He was activated off the IL on September 11 but made just one appearance before landing back on the IL, again due to a right forearm strain.
Fulmer is set to return to free agency after the World Series but his market will obviously be impact by today’s news of his surgery. The revision of the ulnar collateral ligament is a slightly different procedure to Tommy John surgery, but it involves the same ligament and the recovery is still significant enough that Fulmer is likely to miss all of the upcoming campaign.
Free agents in this position can sometimes find two-year deals, allowing them to make some money while rehabbing and giving the signing club control over a post-recovery season. Fulmer could perhaps seek out such a deal on the open market, but teams will naturally have some degree of wariness about the health of his elbow. Fulmer already underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019, as mentioned, and is now set for yet another significant procedure on the UCL in his throwing elbow.
The club also provided health updates on a few other players, with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune among those to pass on the news. Righty Brad Boxberger, who finished the season on the injured list due to a right forearm strain, is expected to begin a throwing schedule in mid-November. He and the Cubs have a mutual option for 2024 but those are rarely picked up by both sides, meaning he is likely to wind up a free agent as well. In terms of Cubs likely to be back next year, each of right-hander Nick Burdi, lefty Brandon Hughes, righty Ethan Roberts and infielder Nick Madrigal are expected to have normal offseasons.
Reds Re-Sign Luke Maile
The Reds have re-signed catcher Luke Maile to a one-year contract with a club option for 2025, the team announced. Maile is guaranteed $3.5MM on the new deal (per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com).
Maile, now 32, was signed by the Reds a little less than a year ago, inking a one-year deal with a $1.175MM guarantee in November. The club also nabbed Curt Casali in the same offseason, hoping that a three-catcher system would keep Tyler Stephenson healthy all year by allowing him to spend some time at first base and designated hitter.
That plan worked insofar as Stephenson stayed healthy enough to play 142 games compared to just 50 in 2022, though his production didn’t cooperate. Stephenson had hit a strong .319/.372/.482 in 2022 but fell to .243/.317/.378 in 2023, his wRC+ going from 135 to 85.
Maile’s offensive production was fairly similar this year, as he hit .235/.308/.391 in his 199 plate appearances, but he brought a strong defensive reputation to the club. Defensive Runs Saved has never tagged him with a negative number and his +1 this year pushed his career tally to +22. Pitch framing metrics have soured on him a bit in recent years but he still has positive grades there for his career as a whole. He rated as above-average on Statcast’s blocking leaderboard and throwing leaderboard this year.
Perhaps more importantly than the metrics, it seems Maile was a good fit on the club, a key trait for catchers as they need to have a working relationship with everyone on the pitching staff. “He was great with all of our guys,” Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall said today, as relayed by Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. “Staff loved him, players loved him. He was a really good fit. He’s a tremendous guy.” Krall added: “He’s a guy our pitchers were comfortable with, our coaches were comfortable with,” he said. “We loved having him this year. It was a pretty easy decision.”
Maile was set to become a free agent in a couple of weeks but it seems the club liked him enough to prevent that from happening. The $3.5MM guarantee is roughly triple what he got at this time a year ago but is still a perfectly reasonable salary for a solid backup catcher.
The catching options on the free agent market aren’t amazing and the Reds have bigger needs on the roster, particularly the pitching staff, so their best seems to be to give Stephenson a chance to get back on track in 2024. He will qualify for arbitration for the first time but will still be affordable and have the potential upside he has shown previously.
Both Maile and Casali were set to become free agents, the latter having a 2024 mutual options with the Reds. Mutual options are rarely picked up by both sides and Casali hit a dismal .175/.290/.200 in 2023. It seems fair to expect the club will move on from him and go with the Stephenson-Maile pairing next year.
There is still the possibility that they add a third catcher to keep Stephenson fresh again, though that plan will be a little more challenging next year. The club graduated a large number of position player prospects in 2023, which means their first base and designated hitter slots are far more crowded now compared to a year ago. Even if Joey Votto isn’t back next year, they will likely have Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer taking time at first, with Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte perhaps squeezed into DH duty by the presence of Matt McLain and Jonathan India in the middle infield. This squeeze already affected Stephenson in 2023, as he got plenty of starts at DH in the first half of the season but just one after July 6.
MLBTR Poll: Chad Green’s Contract Options
Last winter, right-handed reliever Chad Green signed one of the more convoluted free agent contracts in recent memory. The deal looked simple on the surface – an $8.5MM guarantee over two years – but it came with several options that could pay him as much as $32.25MM through 2026. Green earned $2.25MM during the 2023 campaign, while he spent most of the year on the injured list rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays always knew he’d miss the first several months of the season, hence his relatively low salary. This upcoming offseason, however, is when things get complicated.
Toronto has a club option for three more years and $27MM (plus up to $1MM in incentives each season). If the Blue Jays do not exercise their first option, Green will have the chance to accept an option of his own, a one-year player option worth $6.25MM (with as much as $2MM in additional incentives). Then, if Green also declines his option, the Blue Jays have a second, less expensive team option for two years and $21MM (again with up to $1MM in incentives each year). Finally, if both sides decline every option, Green will become an unrestricted free agent.
Given how little Green pitched in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays would pick him up for $9MM a year through his age-35 campaign. Then again, the veteran reliever returned from Tommy John on a perfectly normal timeline and looked healthy in September. In other words, he gave the Blue Jays everything they could have expected in 2023, and the team wouldn’t have signed this deal in the first place if they weren’t going to consider the option.
While Green gave up ten runs (seven earned) in only 12 innings of work this season, his underlying numbers were much more impressive. He struck out 16 of the 52 batters he faced and only issued three unintentional walks. His 3.11 SIERA and 2.84 xERA are also promising signs. What’s more, Green was a dominant and durable reliever for several years before he tore his UCL. From 2016-22, he posted a 2.79 ERA and 2.93 FIP in 326 innings of relief. Since his debut season, he ranks 11th among all relievers in FanGraphs WAR. If he returns to form in 2024, a three-year, $27MM deal would seem more than fair. A few comparable relievers signed for more than $30MM last winter, including Kenley Jansen (two years, $32MM) and Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM).
For those precise reasons, Green is unlikely to accept his $6.25MM player option. If he does hit free agency, all his suitors will have the knowledge that Toronto turned down his services at both three years/$27MM and two years/$21MM. That being said, the market for right-handed relievers isn’t particularly deep, nor is it replete with high-end talent. He’s younger than other guys with a long track record, like Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson, and he’s more experienced out of the bullpen than other high-upside arms, like Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López. Even if he struggles to find a multi-year offer, Green should be able to beat $6.25MM on a one-year pact. However, if he is worried about his health, it’s possible he could opt for another year of job security with the Blue Jays. Yet, considering his performance in September and October, that doesn’t seem to be a likely concern.
Toronto’s two-year, $21MM club option looks the most likely to be exercised, but at the same time, if the club has enough concerns to turn down the three-year option, perhaps they’re ready to move on from Green entirely. On top of that, while the two-year option is less expensive overall, it comes with a higher annual salary. The Blue Jays ran a payroll relatively close to the first luxury tax threshold in 2023, and they already have several payroll commitments for next season. If they’re looking to make some upgrades this winter without paying the tax, they might actually prefer the longer option with a lower AAV.
So, what do the MLBTR readers think? Will either side pick up an option, or will Green return to the open market? Have your say in the poll below!
(poll link for app users)
Which Of Chad Green's Contract Options Will Be Exercised?
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None (Green becomes a free agent) 29% (994)
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Two-year, $21MM team option 26% (893)
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One-year, $6.25MM player option 25% (860)
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Three-year, $27MM team option 20% (684)
Total votes: 3,431
The Opener: NLCS, ALCS, Scherzer
With a couple of postseason games on the docket, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball today:
1. NLCS Game 3:
After a rough couple of games at Citizens Bank Park, the Diamondbacks are headed home to Chase Field. The change of scenery could be just what they need to regain their momentum and slow down the red-hot Phillies. Across the regular season and the playoffs, Philadelphia has gone 55-32 (.632) at home this season. However, they’ve been far more vulnerable on the road, with a 42-41 (.506) record.
The rookie Brandon Pfaadt will start for Arizona, while Ranger Suárez takes the hill for Philadelphia. Pfaadt has looked capable in his first two postseason outings, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in seven innings of work. Suárez, however, is starting to look like a playoff legend in the making, with a career 1.16 ERA in 23 1/3 innings over the past two postseasons.
While D-backs manager Torey Lovullo has kept Pfaadt on a short leash thus far, he might have to ride his no. 3 starter a little harder this time around. The team is planning a bullpen game for Game 4, so Lovullo would surely like to give his relievers a little rest today. At the same time, he will need to be aggressive to avoid putting his team in a 3-0 hole. It will be a difficult balancing act for the longtime Diamondbacks skipper.
First pitch is set for 4:07 pm CT.
2. ALCS Game 4:
Following a momentum-shifting 8-5 victory in Game 3, the Astros will look to even up the series with the Rangers tonight at Globe Life Field. Meanwhile, the Rangers will look to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the postseason.
Andrew Heaney will take the mound for Texas against José Urquidy of Houston in a battle between two starters who have moved back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen this season. Neither looked as sharp in 2023 as he did the year before, but both pitched well in their first postseason outings. Heaney held the Orioles to one run in 3 2/3 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS, while Urquidy gave the Astros 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a series-clinching Game 4 victory over the Twins.
The game begins at 7:03 pm CT.
3. Scherzer struggles in his return:
Max Scherzer wasn’t exactly sharp in his return to the mound on Wednesday, giving up five runs in four innings against the Astros. The veteran starter had not pitched in over a month, and he made a remarkably speedy return from a teres major strain, so one can hardly blame him for looking a little rusty. Still, the Rangers need more from the eight-time All-Star if they’re going to hand him the ball in a potential ALCS Game 7.
On a positive note, manager Bruce Bochy had enough confidence in Scherzer to let him finish four innings despite his struggles. After the game, Scherzer told reporters (including Julia Kreuz of MLB.com) that his arm felt “really good” and that it “responded well.” However, the Rangers will surely keep close tabs on the future Hall of Famer in the coming days, before Bochy makes any decisions about his potential Game 7 starter.
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Red Sox continue their search for a general manager (1:05)
- Kim Ng and the Marlins part ways (4:10)
- Brandon Woodruff might miss all of 2024 with shoulder injury (9:55)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- What is one team you anticipate will aggressively attempt to contend this season but believe should focus on rebuilding, and one club you expect to act passively during the offseason but think should make a more concerted effort to contend? (15:45)
- The Pirates’ competitive window should start to open in 2024 but they badly need to address 1B and SP this winter. I’ve talked myself into Ty France (if Dipoto feels the need to upgrade there) and Patrick Sandoval (if the Angels decide to blow it up) as being great fits. Do you like those options or have any other names that could wind up in Pittsburgh? (20:00)
- To me it seems to be very futile to have great success in the 162 game grind, win your division (by a large margin often) and lose to a lesser team. I get it that baseball is all about who’s hot at the moment but when the best all get upset in the beginning of the playoffs it does give one pause. There surely should be more advantage/reward for regular season achievements. (22:25)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM – listen here
- Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here
- Free Agent Pitching Dark Horses, Padres To Cut Payroll, and If The Angels Should Rebuild — listen here