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Carlos Rodon Seeking Six-Year Deal

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With Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander off the market — to the Rangers and to the Mets, respectively — Carlos Rodon is the clear top starting pitcher left on the free-agent market. As one would expect for a 29-year-old lefty (30 next week) who opted out of the second season of his contract on the heels leading the National League in strikeouts, the asking price appears quite high. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that agent Scott Boras and Rodon have been seeking a six-year deal at an annual rate of $30MM or more. (Notably, that report pre-dates Verlander’s new agreement with the Mets.) Heyman suggests that the Yankees are the large-market team that is most focused on Rodon at present.

As always, it’s worth taking early asking prices with a grain of salt to some degree. That’s not to say Rodon can’t reach six years and/or a $30MM+ annual value, but it behooves any free agent to at least initially set a lofty asking price. A six-year deal for Rodon would put the lefty in rarefied air, as the list of free-agent pitchers to secure such a commitment is quite short.

No free-agent pitcher has pulled in six-plus years on the open market since the 2019 Winter Meetings, when Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM) managed to do so. Prior to that pairing, the only free-agent deals of six or more years in length over the past decade have gone to Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, David Price, Zack Greinke (twice!) and Patrick Corbin. Starting pitchers earning more than $30MM annually are similarly rare; Cole, Strasburg, Scherzer, Price, Greinke, Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer and deGrom are the only pitchers to ever reach that level.

For Rodon to join either group of arms, he’ll need to convince the market that the injury troubles that dogged him for much of his early career are in the past. Rodon has undergone shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery in his career, and due to those injuries pitched just 232 1/3 innings at the Major League level over a four-year period (2017-20).

However, the former No. 3 overall pick returned to the White Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal in 2021 after being non-tendered, and broke out with one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the sport. Through mid-July in 2021, Rodon was the clear front-runner for American League Cy Young honors and quite arguably the most dominant pitcher in either league. Shoulder fatigue down the stretch dropped his velocity and relegated him to just six starts over the final two months, and durability concerns “limited” him to a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants — one that allowed him to opt out of the contract after one season if he pitched at least 110 innings.

Rodon not only reached 110 innings — he dominated to the tune of a 2.88 ERA through a career-high 178 frames. He held his velocity late in the season, averaged better than 5 2/3 frames per start and took significant strides toward alleviating some durability concerns. He paced the National League in strikeouts this past season and has now turned in consecutive campaigns with a sub-3.00 ERA. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, he leads all Major League pitchers (min. 200 innings) with a 33.9% strikeout rate. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants, which may slightly impact his earning power, but that consideration shouldn’t be a major encumbrance for an in-his-prime, ace-caliber pitcher.

That’s especially true now, because with deGrom and Verlander off the market and little to no frontline starting pitchers clearly available in the trade market, demand for Rodon should be extra-steep. He can justifiably hold out for max years and/or dollars and go to the highest bidder, knowing that teams in need of an ace have no readily available alternative. Unlike Verlander, who surely prioritized signing with a win-now team due to his age, Rodon can consider a broader field of suitors. To this point in the offseason Rodon has drawn interest from as many as nine teams, with the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Rangers, Twins and Orioles among the team’s reported to be involved in his market to at least some extent.

Dodgers Officially Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw

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The Dodgers announced today that they have re-signed Clayton Kershaw to a one-year deal worth $20MM. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that it will take the form of a $15MM salary and $5MM signing bonus. It’s been almost a month since it was reported that Kershaw was nearing a return to the Dodgers on a one-year deal. For some reason, it took a long time for the paperwork to be taken care of, but the club has now made it official today. Kershaw is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Kershaw, 35 in March, was drafted by the Dodgers and has spent his entire career with the club. He made his debut back in 2008 when he was just 20 years old. Though he posted a 4.26 ERA at that young age, he took a step forward the next season and has been one of the best pitchers in the world ever since. To this point in his career, he has 2,581 innings under his belt with a 2.48 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 46.7% ground ball rate.

Kershaw is about a decade removed from his peak, when he won three Cy Young awards in four years, grabbing the trophy in 2011, 2013 and 2014. In the five-year stretch from 2011 to 2015, he topped 225 innings four times while never posting an ERA higher than 2.53.

Since that time, injuries have put a damper on the quantity of Kershaw’s work but the quality has remained quite strong. He hasn’t topped 180 innings since 2015 and has been kept under 127 since 2019. But he still generally keeps runs off the board when he’s on the mound. In 2022, he made a couple of trips to the IL but still made 22 starts and posted a 2.28 ERA over 126 1/3 innings, with rate stats roughly in line with his career marks.

Kershaw has signed a couple of extensions with the Dodgers over his time there, with the most recent one going through 2021. A free agent one year ago, it was speculated that Kershaw would be deciding between returning to the Dodgers, signing with the Rangers to be near his Dallas-area home, or retirement. Shortly after the lockout ended, Kershaw returned to Los Angeles on a one-year deal for $17MM plus incentives. This year, it was expected that Kershaw would be deciding between the same three paths. However, he didn’t wait around until the spring this time, with reports emerging shortly after the World Series that he would be coming back to the Dodgers yet again.

Kershaw was one of three starters that the Dodgers saw reach free agency at the end of the 2022 season, with Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney also hitting the open market. Walker Buehler is likely to miss the entire campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. With Kershaw back in the fold, he’ll join Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May in the rotation. They have some internal candidates for the fifth spot, such as Ryan Pepiot or Michael Grove, but it’s likely they will keep their eye on further additions, especially with some injury question marks hovering around this group. As mentioned, Kershaw hasn’t reached 127 innings since 2019 and May only made six appearances in 2022 after returning from his own Tommy John surgery.

Adding Kershaw’s $20MM to the books bring the club’s payroll for 2023 to $173MM, per Roster Resource. The club has gone well beyond that in recent years but some reporting has suggested they may consider sneaking under the luxury tax in order to reset their status in that department. The competitive balance tax features escalating penalties for teams that go over in consecutive seasons and the Dodgers could potentially stay under the line in 2023 and then go into 2024 as “first-time” payors. The lowest CBT line in the coming season will be $233MM, with Roster Resource calculating the Dodgers to now be at $189MM. That gives them over $40MM of wiggle room, though they will have a number of areas on the roster to address. In addition to the aforementioned rotation situation, they declined a club option on third baseman Justin Turner, non-tendered center fielder Cody Bellinger and also lost shortstop Trea Turner to free agency along with many relievers and role players.

The Dodgers won 111 games in 2022, the highest such total in the lengthy history of the franchise. That led to their ninth National League West division title in the past ten years. However, they could be looking to shake things up after they were dispatched by the Padres in the NLDS. They have a large number of free agents but also a number of prospects at or near the MLB level who could be ready to make the jump. If they do indeed decide to curtail spending this winter, they will have some interesting choices to make in terms of where their devote their resources in the rest of the winter.

Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Orioles Among Teams Pursuing Jameson Taillon

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Right-hander Jameson Taillon is one of the top names on the second tier of free-agent starting pitchers this winter, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the Mets, Phillies, Cubs and Orioles are among the teams pursuing him. The Mets were already known to have interest in Taillon, as SNY’s Andy Martino recently reported that they made a strong effort to close a deal with the right-hander last week. Martino noted that with Justin Verlander atop the Mets’ priority list, the Mets might not be inclined to beat the market for Taillon.

Any of the four teams in today’s report would represent a perfectly logical landing spot for Taillon, who did not receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and thus can be signed without the forfeiture of any draft picks or international bonus space. There’s some injury risk, to be sure, as Taillon has twice undergone Tommy John surgery and heavy contracts for two-time Tommy John patients are fairly rare.

That said, however, Taillon has reestablished himself as a quality mid-rotation hurler since his 2021 return from that second ligament replacement operation. In two seasons with the Yankees, the former No. 2 overall draft pick and top prospect pitched to a combined 4.08 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate and a strong 5.7% walk rate. The Yankees carefully monitored his workload in his first post-surgery season in ’21, as Taillon averaged just shy of five innings per start in his 29 trips to the mound. However, he averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start in 2022, improved his ERA, lowered his walk rate and upped his ground-ball rate.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Mets have been fairly aggressive in their early efforts to land Taillon, as they recently lost Jacob deGrom to the Rangers and also saw each of Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams reach free agency this winter. At the moment, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill would comprise the top four spots in manager Buck Showalter’s rotation.

Even with a pronounced need in the rotation, the Mets are still projected by Roster Resource to carry a $234.7MM payroll — with a hearty $246.6MM of luxury obligations on hand at present. The Mets paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they’d be a second-time offender and thus face steeper penalties in 2023. They’re facing a 30% tax on the first $20MM over the tax line, plus 42% for the next $20MM, 75% for the next $20MM and 90% on any money spent thereafter.

The Phillies, too, are trending toward being a repeat luxury tax payor. Though they’re currently more than $40MM shy of the $233MM tax barrier, they’re known to be heavily interested in the high-end shortstops in free agency and are also looking into rotation help (hence the apparent Taillon interest). Taillon would slot into the rotation behind co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, joining Ranger Suarez and likely Bailey Falter to form the starting five in Philly. Prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry loom in the upper minors.

From a financial perspective, it’s different story for the Cubs and Orioles, neither of whom are anywhere near the luxury tax. Both clubs, however, are looking to add some win-now pieces after rebuilding efforts of varying extent. The Cubs have Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele locked into rotation spots in 2023, but the fourth and fifth spots remain more fluid. Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and Hayden Wesneski are all candidates currently, but it seems likely Chicago will add at least one starting pitcher this winter.

Over in Baltimore, the O’s have already agreed to a one-year deal with Kyle Gibson, but Taillon would be more of a statement addition who’s viewed as a multi-year piece of the puzzle. Beyond Gibson, the O’s have Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Austin Voth, Bruce Zimmermann, Spenser Watkins and Mike Baumann as options, to say nothing of top prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Baltimore also hopes to welcome lefty John Means back from Tommy John surgery later in the 2023 season.

There are surely plenty of other clubs who’ve held discussions with Taillon and his representatives at Excel Sports. That he’s one of the non-ace starters who’s still reasonably young — he’ll pitch all of next season at 31 — and won’t require any draft compensation could make interest sufficient enough to make him one of the first notable starters off the board. We ranked Taillon 14th on our annual Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year deal at $56MM

Rick Porcello Announces Retirement

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Former American League Cy Young winner Rick Porcello seemingly stepped away from baseball with scarcely a word about his decision to do so following the 2020 season, but in a new appearance on the Bradfo Sho with WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the 33-year-old righty publicly confirmed for the first time that he has indeed retired.

Rick Porcello

“I wanted to be with my family,” said Porcello, who also tells Bradford that he and his brother built a house together in the two years since he’s last taken a big league mound. “I wanted to get back into that type of lifestyle and be around them because every year that you’re gone is another year where your parents are getting older, and your brothers are getting older.”

Porcello acknowledged that his struggles in his final two Major League seasons muted interest during the 2020-21 offseason, though it’s known that he at least drew some interest in a potential reunion with the Tigers that winter. No deal ever materialized, however, and Porcello has now apparently opted to dedicate his time and efforts to his family and to helping grow youth baseball in Vermont, where he and his brother built their aforementioned home. In addition to the full audio of the interview, Bradford has several lengthy quotes from Porcello on his decision to retire, on his struggles in 2019-20, on building that house and on his commitment to youth baseball in his column at WEEI.

Though his final game came in his age-31 season, Porcello still pitched a dozen full seasons in the Majors, thanks largely to the fact that he debuted as a 20-year-old rookie less than two years after the Tigers selected him with the No. 27 overall pick in the draft. Porcello finished third in 2009’s American League Rookie of the Year voting on the heels of a 3.96 ERA that he spun over the life of 170 2/3 innings.

Porcello was briefly optioned to Triple-A Toledo the following summer but otherwise never returned to the minors and practically never missed a start due to injury. The right-hander landed on the injured list just once in his 12-year career — a three-week absence due to a minor triceps strain in Aug. 2015. Porcello was the consummate workhorse, averaging 31 starts and 185 innings per season from 2009-19. He worked to a 4.36 ERA in 2037 1/3 innings along the way, and for a few years in the midst of that span, he peaked as one of baseball’s better pitchers.

At age 25 in 2014, Porcello enjoyed a breakout season, tallying a then-career-high 204 2/3 innings with a 3.43 ERA. Strikeouts were never a big part of the sinker specialist’s game, but Porcello thrived that season due to a tiny 4.9% walk rate, a strong 49% grounder rate and an average of just 0.79 homers per nine innings pitched. The Tigers, looking for some extra punch in their lineup, traded Porcello to the Red Sox in a deal that netted Yoenis Cespedes, Gabe Speier and Alex Wilson at the 2014 Winter Meetings, when both Porcello and Cespedes were just a season away from free agency.

However, Boston apparently had little intent of simply “renting” Porcello for a year, as the Sox inked him to a four-year, $82.5MM contract extension that spring. Porcello’s first season at Fenway set off alarm bells, as he tied a career-worst 4.92 ERA. The red flags disappeared when he not only rebounded in 2016 but shattered all of his career rate stats en route to a 3.15 ERA, an MLB-best 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a narrow win over former teammate Justin Verlander in 2016 American League Cy Young voting.

That season proved to be Porcello’s individual peak, but Porcello called the 2018 season “the crowning achievement in my career” due to a more team-oriented accolade, as he and the Red Sox shook off a pair of ALDS exits in 2016-17 to take home a World Series title. Porcello started 28 games for the ’18 Red Sox and pitched to a 4.28 ERA, adding 15 1/3 frames of 3.52 ERA ball in the postseason that year — including a Game 4, series-clinching ALDS victory at Yankee Stadium in which he held Boston’s archrivals to one run in five strong innings.

The following season, 2019, marked the beginning of the end for Porcello’s run in the Majors. He was tagged for a 5.52 ERA in 174 1/3 innings before heading out into free agency and signing a one-year deal with the Mets. True to form, he took the ball every fifth day for the Mets during the pandemic-shortened season and started a dozen of their 60 games, but Porcello’s struggles continued as he logged a 5.64 ERA in 59 innings.

In chatting with Bradford, Porcello acknowledged unsuccessfully trying to keep up with leaguewide changes that saw four-seam fastballs and sliders become increasingly en vogue; indeed, he threw a career-high 31.1% four-seamers and career-low 24.5% sinkers in 2019, and in 2020 he threw a career-high 29.2% sliders. None of those tweaks worked in his favor, and Porcello added that the pandemic afforded him “new perspective on life” and played a role in his decision to prioritize time spent with family rather than seek out a rebound campaign on the mound.

Though he’s retired at a young age, Porcello accomplished plenty in his 12 big league seasons. He’ll walk away from the game with a 150-125 record, a 4.40 ERA, 1561 strikeouts and just 489 walks in 2096 1/3 big league innings (plus another 40 innings of 4.73 ERA ball in the playoffs). Porcello was a top-three Rookie of the Year finisher, a Cy Young winner and a World Series champion in a career that FanGraphs valued at 29.6 wins above replacement. Between his original contract out of the draft (back when MLB deals were allowed for draftees), his arbitration earnings, his Red Sox extension and his Mets free-agent deal, Porcello earned more than $128MM. Best wishes to Porcello and his family in life after baseball.

The Opener: Winter Meetings, Top Arms, Murphy

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With the biggest event of the baseball offseason underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. The Winter Meetings are underway

Today marks the first full day of the Winter Meetings, with executives, agents, and players around baseball having convened in San Diego to do business. The day is sure to be rife with rumors fresh from the hot stove, with the potential for a new deal to break at any minute. Much of the focus is on Aaron Judge, particularly in the wake of multiple reports that he could have a deal in hand some point before the Winter Meetings end. The free-agent shortstop quartet of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson will also dominate headlines this week, and Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that center fielder Brandon Nimmo is in San Diego for face-to-face meetings with interested teams. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!

2. Could the top of the pitching market keep moving forward?

Jacob deGrom’s five-year deal with the Rangers takes one of the most talented pitchers on the planet off the free agent market, but two aces are still available to be signed: reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, and lefty ace Carlos Rodon. Both hurlers had phenomenal years in 2022, with Verlander’s 1.75 ERA in 2022 leading all of baseball and Rodon’s 2.25 FIP doing the same. The Mets appear to be among the most heavily involved on both players after losing deGrom to Texas, but they’re hardly lacking in competition. Verlander has been repeatedly connected to the Dodgers, and the Blue Jays been mentioned as another possible suitor for a second straight offseason. Rodon, on the other hand, reportedly has as many as nine teams interested, with the Orioles among those most recently connected to him. What’s more, the Rangers may still be interested in signing the lefty even after acquiring deGrom. While a team signing two players at the same position at the top of the market is typically rare, the Rangers should not be counted out, having done so as recently as last offseason when they inked both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to massive deals.

3. Will the A’s deal Murphy soon?

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos quashed rumors that his club could be on the verge of landing catcher Sean Murphy in a deal with the A’s last night, but Oakland is still actively discussing trades with several interested suitors. It’s been widely expected that the A’s will trade Murphy this offseason, with the team in the midst of a rebuild and flush with options behind the plate. Top prospect Shea Langeliers already reached the big league level in 2022, while fellow top prospect Tyler Soderstrom climbed from Class-A Advanced to Triple-A in 2022. The Guardians, Rays, Red Sox and Cardinals are among the teams known to have interest in Murphy, all of whom have the stockpile of prospects and young talent necessary to swing such a deal.

Giants Have Carlos Correa As Top Option Among Free Agent Shortstops

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The Giants are one of the many teams shopping at the top of the shortstop market this winter, and Carlos Correa “is atop the front office’s list,” according to NBC Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic.  Earlier reports had hinted that Correa was San Francisco’s preferred choice among the star shortstops since the Giants were going to actually use Correa at shortstop — the Giants are prepared to move Brandon Crawford to third base to accommodate a Correa signing, but if Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson were signed, Crawford would remain at shortstop and Turner/Swanson would play second base.

With so many clubs exploring the markets of the “big four” of Correa, Turner, Swanson, and Xander Bogaerts, naturally there have been several reports (and perhaps some gamesmanship or smokescreens) concerning which players are preferred by particular teams, or who a team’s second choice might be if the top option signs elsewhere.  The Twins, for example, are prioritizing keeping Correa in Minnesota, but are open to pursuing Bogaerts as a backup plan.  The Phillies have reportedly had either Turner or Bogaerts as their top choice, but will head to the Winter Meetings and meet with the agents of all four shortstops.  Meanwhile, the Braves want to sign Swanson but only Swanson, and aren’t expected to look into Turner, Bogaerts, or Correa if Swanson departs Atlanta.

Correa’s market may be a little limited by his asking price, since as the both the youngest of the top shortstops and the only one not linked to draft compensation via the qualifying offer, Correa might command the biggest contract of the group. MLBTR ranked Correa second on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, predicting a nine-year, $288MM pact for the two-time All-Star as he enters his age-28 season.

Given the Giants’ relative lack of future payroll commitments, they can somewhat easily fit a mega-deal for Correa into their budget and still have the financial means to pursue other needs.  The Giants already used some of their payroll flexibility in retaining Joc Pederson via the qualifying offer, as San Francisco rather surprisingly issued the $19.65MM deal to the outfielder and he accepted the one-year payday.  While president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has taken a somewhat conservative approach to spending and contract size during his first four years in San Francisco, the expectation is that the Giants will splurge on at least one big signing this winter.

Of course, that big signing could well be Aaron Judge, as the Giants remain as one of the chief suitors for the reigning AL MVP.  To this end, Pavlovic echoes the sentiment that the Giants aren’t likely to pivot to Correa or any of the star shortstops until Judge decides on his new team.

KBO League’s SSG Landers Re-Sign Shin-Soo Choo

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Longtime Major League outfielder Shin-Soo Choo has re-signed for a third season with the KBO League’s SSG Landers, according to reports out of South Korea (hat tip to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz).  Choo will receive 1.7 billion won, or roughly $1.32MM in U.S. dollars.  This represents a significant pay cut from Choo’s 2.7 billion won/$2.3MM salary in 2022, but the two sides agreed to the deal to help the Landers stay under the KBO’s new salary cap.

Choo (who turned 40 in July) will be entering his 23rd season in pro baseball.  Signing an amateur deal with the Mariners as an 18-year-old Choo had never actually played in the KBO League until he joined SSG Landers in the 2020-21 offseason.  Even at his increased age, Choo has still been productive in his home country, hitting .261/.397/.441 with 37 home runs over 1074 plate appearances and 248 games with the Landers since the start of the 2021 season.  This run in the KBO was highlighted by the Landers’ triumphant 2022 campaign, which saw the club post a league-best 88-52 record in the regular season and then capture its fifth Korean Series title.

Over 16 seasons of Major League ball, Choo was usually a very productive hitter, posting a .275/.377/.447 slash line over 7157 career PA in the Show with Seattle, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Texas.  Choo’s defensive struggles limited his overall value, though he still posted 34 fWAR over his MLB tenure, and his career 123 wRC+ was solidly above average.  There was some speculation last winter that Choo might be considering a return to the majors, but no such news publicly surfaced this winter, and Choo will now return to the Landers in search of another championship.

Free Agent Notes: deGrom, Braves, Taillon, Anderson, Gibson

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The five-year, $185MM deal between Jacob deGrom and the Rangers came together pretty quickly, and deGrom didn’t give the Mets a chance to counter the offer, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes.  This isn’t to say that the Mets would have countered, as they “had no intention of offering anything close to where the winning bid landed.”  While the Mets had some sense in November that deGrom might prefer to remain in New York if his offers were all in the same price range, Olney writes that some in the organization felt deGrom was starting to gradually distance himself from the Mets as the season went on.

There was also some mutual interest between deGrom and the Braves, relating back to an October report suggesting deGrom would ideally like to pitch closer to his home in Florida.  According to Olney, the Braves were recently looking into deGrom, but his desired price tag was too high for the team.

Here’s some more buzz from around the free agent market, on players both already signed and still available…

  • The Mets “made a serious run…hoping to close a deal” with Jameson Taillon last week, according to SNY’s Andy Martino.  New York was known to have interest in Taillon, and this increased push seemingly indicates that he is pretty high on the team’s list of targets.  That said, Martino thinks “it’s easy to see another team offering more than the Mets” for Taillon, as Justin Verlander is the Amazins’ top target and Carlos Rodon may be the backup plan.  Past reports indicate that the Mets are looking to acquire an ace (i.e. Verlander or Rodon) and then another starter from the next tier of the free agent pitching market, which includes Taillon and several other arms.
  • The Mariners had interest in trading for Brian Anderson during the 2021 season, The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish reports, but the Marlins wanted too much in return.  With Anderson now a free agent, Divish wonders if Seattle might again look to add the third baseman/outfielder, who brings some multi-positional ability and perhaps some bounce-back potential.  Anderson has hit only .233/.322/.359 over 647 plate appearances and 165 games since the start of the 2021 season, with injuries limiting his playing time.  Miami opted to non-tender Anderson last month, rather than pay him a projected $5.2MM in arbitration salary.
  • Kyle Gibson agreed to a one-year deal with the Orioles, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Gibson turned down a similar offer from an unknown team.  Baltimore’s offer was preferable to Gibson because of the Orioles’ strong infield defense, the more pitcher-friendly left-field dimensions at Camden Yards, and the chance to work with catcher Adley Rutschman.

Rockies, Yankees, Braves Interested In Bryan Reynolds

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Bryan Reynolds’ trade request has sparked a new round of speculation that the Pirates might look to deal the outfielder, and any number of teams could be fits to make bids for the All-Star.  The Rockies are a new team with interest in Reynolds, according to The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders, while Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette hears that that from a source that the Yankees are still “very much” part of the mix after initially trying to land Reynolds both last winter and at the trade deadline.  The Braves are another team who has previously been linked to Reynolds on the rumor mill, and could re-emerge with “a strong, under-the-radar push for Reynolds this winter,” a source tells The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel.

The fit is apparent on any of these clubs, as a switch-hitting All-Star who is controlled through the 2025 season is naturally a good fit on almost any roster.  Reynolds could slide right into Atlanta’s left field position, teaming with Michael Harris and Ronald Acuna Jr. as one of baseball’s best starting outfields, and allowing the Braves to move Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario into part-time or DH duty (or possibly into trade bait, if any deals can be found).  Reynolds can likely move right into regular left field work for the Yankees, also moonlighting in center field to spell Harrison Bader once in a while, and Reynolds’ switch-hitting bat will help balance out a New York lineup that is heavy on right-handed hitters.

Colorado is the most likely of this trio to primarily keep Reynolds in center field, though Kris Bryant’s versatility allows the Rockies with some flexibility in figuring out their lineup.  The Rockies’ first goal will be to just get Bryant back onto the field after an injury-plagued 2022, but assuming that Bryant returns in good form, he can bounce around to either corner infield or outfield position, and even play the occasional game in center field.  Bryant played only left field and DH last year, and the Rox might opt to have Bryant and Reynolds in the corner outfield spots flanking Yonathan Daza and Randal Grichuk in center field.  Lineup balance would also be a factor for a mostly right-handed Colorado batting order.

Of course, it remains to be seen if the Pirates will trade Reynolds anywhere.  In response to Reynolds, the Bucs flatly stated that the trade request “will have zero impact on our decision-making this off-season or in the future.”  Pittsburgh’s asking price in any Reynolds trade has been said to be extremely high, as the Pirates seem to regard Reynolds as a building block rather than the latest player to be dealt away as part of their lengthy rebuild.  The two sides were even engaged in extension talks, though the lack of progress in these talks seems to have been a major reason why Reynolds asked to be dealt.

Back in August, Baseball America’s midseason organizational talent rankings put the Rockies (in 10th place) well ahead of both the Yankees (17th) and Braves (28th) in terms of farm system strength.  In theory, Colorado might have some advantage in a bidding war depending on the types of young talent the Pirates would want in return for Reynolds, though BA’s rankings do reflect players that still qualify as minor leaguers.  Not that Atlanta would move Harris or Spencer Strider for Reynolds anyway, but the Braves’ lower ranking reflects how those two young stars had graduated to the big leagues, thus removing two very prominent prospects from BA’s evaluation.  If the Pirates are hopeful of becoming competitive perhaps even as early as 2024, they could be more apt to ask for MLB-ready young players, which would help the Braves and Yankees in the Reynolds talks.

Blue Jays “Remain Engaged” On Justin Verlander’s Market

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Justin Verlander strongly considered joining the Blue Jays last winter, to the point that the Jays may have been the runner-up to the Astros in the race to sign the future Hall-of-Famer.  Toronto’s interest is still active a year later, and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi writes that the Jays “remain engaged with” Verlander in the right-hander’s latest trip to the open market.

After a Cy Young Award-winning season, Verlander’s price tag has naturally gone up.  Verlander landed a two-year, $50MM deal from the Astros last offseason despite missing virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons due to Tommy John surgery, and even though 2022 was Verlander’s age-39 season.  Still, Verlander was more than worth the investment, as he posted one of the finest years of his incredible career and helped lead Houston to a World Series championship.

With his 40th birthday approaching in February, Verlander is reportedly looking for a three-year deal worth roughly $130MM, akin to the deal Max Scherzer received from the Mets when Scherzer was entering his age-37 campaign (Scherzer turned 38 last July).  The Scherzer deal represents the highest annual average value for any contract in baseball history, so speculatively, it would seem likely that Verlander and his representatives would want to top that AAV even if by just a bit, in order to set a new benchmark.

It’s a steep asking price for any team to meet, even if Verlander is a unique case as an all-time great who is still pitching at an elite level this late into his career.  Such a large AAV is a risk for a player who will be in action only once every five days, and if Verlander gets hurt or has any kind of performance dropoff, the contract could quickly start to look like an albatross.

Spending that much on Verlander would also set a new standard for the Blue Jays, whose payroll is already at a record high for the franchise.  Adding a $43MM-ish salary to the ledger would also put the Jays over the luxury tax threshold for the first time in club history — Roster Resource projects Toronto’s current tax number at slightly over $201MM, so a big AAV for Verlander would send the Blue Jays well over the initial $233MM tax threshold.

As Davidi puts it, signing Verlander “may very well cut [the Jays] off from other significant moves.”  That is no small matter for a team that several other needs to be addressed beyond the rotation, even if starting pitching is Toronto’s top need.  The Jays could use some more outfield depth after trading Teoscar Hernandez, second base is a somewhat unsettled area, and the bullpen could use some more reinforcement even after the addition of Erik Swanson from the Mariners in the Hernandez swap.  If ownership did allow the front office to spend up to the tax threshold, it can be argued that the extra money would be better served being spent on multiple players, rather than a single superstar in Verlander.

All this to be said, signing Verlander would still make some baseball sense for the obvious boost he’d bring to the pitching staff.  Verlander, Alek Manoah, and Kevin Gausman would become arguably the top rotation trio in the sport, Jose Berrios would be an overqualified fourth starter if he can regain his form after a mediocre 2022 season, and the Jays might feel better about Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White battling over one starting spot than entrusting two spots in the rotation to question marks.  If payroll or roster needs are a concern, the Jays could look to cut some salary in other areas, plus Toronto could still trade from its catching depth to acquire more talent.

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