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Braves Have Opened Extension Talks With Dansby Swanson

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The Braves have opened extension talks with Dansby Swanson, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. At this point, there’s nothing to indicate that talks have moved beyond the initial stages, though Heyman adds that there is “less whispered negativity” with these discussions than there was with Freddie Freeman a year ago. Swanson is represented by Excel Sports Management, who also represented Freeman until he reportedly dismissed them in June.

How far the talks with Swanson have progressed isn’t clear, though it’s noteworthy that they have begun, with Swanson just a few months away from reaching free agency. The Braves have been the most aggressive team in baseball when it comes to locking up their star players. All of Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II have agreed to lengthy pacts in recent years, with those latter two just coming in the past month.

However, Swanson’s case is a bit different than those other players, as none of them were on the verge of reaching the open market. The 28-year-old is just a few months away from having multiple teams bidding for his services, which likely means it will take a significant payout to prevent him from taking that opportunity. Furthermore, the timing of his free agency could hardly be any better from his perspective, since he’s having easily the best season of his career.

Swanson has hit .292/.348/.455 this season, coming into tonight’s action. That offensive production is 22% better than league average, as evidenced by his 122 wRC+. Outside of a cup of coffee in his debut season and a strong showing in the shortened 2020 campaign, his previous high in that department was the 98 wRC+ he registered last year. He’s also added 15 steals already, eclipsing his previous personal best of 10.

He seems to have taken steps forward on the defensive side of things as well, depending on which defensive metric you trust the most. Outs Above Average is the most bullish, giving Swanson 14 on the year already, doubling his previous personal best, which was a seven back in 2018. Runs Above Average is also impressed, having never given him better than five but setting him at 10 so far this season. Defensive Runs Saved also likes his work, valuing him at six so far, on pace to get near his previous high of nine. Ultimate Zone Rating appears to be the outlier here, rating Swanson’s glove work at -0.7 after having him at 1.1 last season.

All told, FanGraphs calculates Swanson to have been worth 5.1 wins above replacement so far this year, easily eclipsing his personal record, the 3.4 he accrued last year. That total is also good enough for Swanson to be seventh in the majors among position players.

If an extension were not reached, Swanson would surely find no shortage of interest in his services based on this excellent platform he’s putting together. This coming offseason figures to feature another strong class of shortstops, with Swanson likely to be joined by Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner at the top of it. In the most recent edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, all four shortstops cracked the list, with Swanson taking the seventh slot.

Whether the Braves can tempt Swanson from forgoing that opportunity remains to be seen. The aforementioned Freddie Freeman was in a similar position at this point last year, with many around the industry assuming the two sides would reunite. That didn’t end up happening, with the Braves instead acquiring Matt Olson to play first base and Freeman joining the Dodgers. If the Swanson situation were to go a different route and he did end up agreeing to stay, Atlanta could pencil him into the infield next to Olson, Riley and Albies for years to come.

Rangers Notes: Young, Jung, Venable

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It’s been a tumultuous week in the world of the Texas Rangers, with manager Chris Woodward getting fired on Monday and president of baseball operations Jon Daniels following him out the door on Wednesday. With the departure of Daniels, general manager Chris Young took over as the chief baseball decision maker in Texas. However, Young apparently didn’t see this changed role coming, with the club’s managing partner Ray Davis telling Kennedi Landry of MLB.com that Young was “shocked” by the dismissal of Daniels.

It’s certainly been an unusual journey for Young in recent years. The 43-year-old former big league hurler pitched through the 2017 season and even signed a minor league deal with the Padres for 2018. He was eventually released and was hired by MLB in May of that year to be a vice president of on-field operations. Just over two years later, December of 2020, he was hired to be the Rangers’ general manager. In the tweet above, Landry relays that he and Daniels had been working pretty much side-by-side since then. Given his less than two years of experience working for the front office of a major league baseball team, it seems fair to assume that he learned a lot from Daniels, who was hired to be the Rangers’ general manager 17 years ago. Given that difference in their respective résumés, it’s hardly surprising that Young was taken off-guard by the news, suddenly finding himself atop the decision making pyramid after such a short time on the job.

Young spoke to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News about his hectic week. “I was trying to make sure that collectively, everybody, especially the longest-tenured employees, had a show of support in terms of just knowing the emotions they are going through,” Young said. “But I want to keep everybody focused on the task at hand. We have great things happening.”

Young was also asked about the future plans for the front office, perhaps hiring a new president of baseball operations or maybe a new general manager with Young getting promoted to the POBO role. “We’ll assess our needs as we go,” Young said on that topic. “It’s a natural part of the seasonal cycle. We will see what our needs are, what it looks like moving forward. We’ll probably lose some good employees to other organizations. That is just part of the hiring process. The first steps are making sure we get all our ducks lined up. But it will be part of the discussion.” With the offseason now just over two months away, Young will have to act quickly to align those ducks.

Other notes out of Texas…

  • A promotion of prospect Josh Jung doesn’t appear to be close, with interim manager Tony Beasley saying as much to Jeff Wilson of Rangerstoday.com. This past winter, the young third baseman seemed like a candidate to crack the club’s Opening Day roster or at least make his major league debut shortly after. However, he required shoulder surgery in February, which was expected to keep him out of action for six months and thereby kick his debut down the road. He began a rehab assignment at the end of July and has been tearing the cover off the ball ever since. In eight games in the Complex League, he hit .240/.345/.600, followed by seven Triple-A games with a line of .414/.485/1.034. That’s an incredible showing in that small sample, but the club considers this to be Jung’s Spring Training, which means they’re focused on getting his body re-acclimated to regular playing time. That news might be disappointing to fans of the club who are looking forward to seeing Jung tackle big league pitching before the offseason begins. However, it’s worth pointing out that these things can change quickly. Just a few days ago, the Mets insisted they weren’t promoting their own young third baseman, Brett Baty, before announcing the very next day that he was indeed getting called up. Jung isn’t yet on the 40-man roster but will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in a few months, meaning the Rangers will need to add him soon either way.
  • With Woodward’s firing, the club will have to think about who they want to be in the manager’s chair next year. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Red Sox bench coach Will Venable is one potential candidate. The 39-year-old played nine seasons in the majors, mostly with the Padres, before transitioning into other roles. In 2017, he joined the Cubs, first as a special assistant to president Theo Epstein, then spending some time as first base coach and third base coach. He became the Red Sox bench coach prior to the 2021 season and has been in that job since. This wouldn’t be the first time his name has been floated in managerial rumors, as he was connected to the Cubs, Giants and Astros prior to 2020, the Tigers and Red Sox prior to 2021 and the A’s prior to 2022. Given that repeated interest, it seems he has a strong reputation around the league and could get consideration for vacancies again this winter. In addition to the Rangers, the Blue Jays, Phillies and Angels have fired their managers and hired interim replacements this year.

Injury Notes: Mahle, Meadows, Walker, Johnson

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The Twins are surely breathing a sigh of relief, announcing to reporters Thursday that an MRI revealed right-hander Tyler Mahle’s shoulder to be structurally sound. Mahle, acquired from the Reds in exchange for three prospects earlier this month, exited yesterday’s start after just 2 1/3 innings due to shoulder fatigue. That was of particular concern, given that he also missed time in July with what was termed by the Reds as a “minor'” shoulder strain. For the time being, there are no plans to place Mahle on the 15-day injured list, though it’s not yet clear whether his next start will be pushed back at all.

Mahle’s Wednesday start saw his fastball clocking in around four miles per hour shy of his typical 93.4 mph average, so there’s still some obvious concern, but the absence of a tear or any structural issues is about the best news for which the Twins could have hoped. In 14 1/3 innings as a Twin, Mahle has pitched to a 2.51 ERA with a 23.1% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate. Mahle, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy are in line to make the majority of the Twins’ starts down the stretch, though they’re expecting right-hander Bailey Ober back in September and just this week promoted prospect Simeon Woods Richardson from Double-A to Triple-A.

Some more injury scenarios of note from around the league…

  • As if things couldn’t get any worse for the Tigers, manager A.J. Hinch announced this week that outfielder Austin Meadows has once again been pulled from a rehab assignment (link via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). Meadows first hit the injured list back in mid-May due to vertigo-like symptoms and returned a bit less than a month later. That return lasted only eight games, however, before he was placed on the Covid-related injured list. Just as Meadows was getting ready to head out on a rehab assignment, he was transferred to the 10-day injured list owing to the bizarre diagnosis of an Achilles strain in both legs. This now marks the second time that Meadows has had a rehab assignment for this injury halted. Hinch’s only update was that Meadows was headed to Detroit for reevaluation and that the Tigers still have hope he can return in 2022. It’s been a nightmare of a season for Meadows, who has been limited to just 147 plate appearances and seen his power disappear: .250/.347/.328.
  • Mets righty Taijuan Walker left his most recent start due to back spasms, with an MRI revealing a slight disc bulge in his lower back, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. However, it’s possible he could make his next scheduled start on Sunday. Walker tells DiComo that he is “shocked” to be feeling so good so soon after experiencing “the worst pain I ever felt.” Although he’s feeling better, he still won’t take the mound on Sunday unless he’s feeling 100 percent, per DiComo. If he is indeed recovered, it would be a tremendous gift for the Mets, given the current pressures on their rotation. With Carlos Carrasco recently landing on the IL and the Mets having a doubleheader on Saturday, having to make it through Sunday without Walker would certainly be a challenge. How his back responds over the next few days will determine if the club can avoid that tricky scenario.
  • Padres reliever Pierce Johnson is heading out on a rehab assignment, tweets Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Johnson had an excellent season for San Diego a year ago, throwing 58 2/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA and 31.6% strikeout rate. The Friars held a $3MM club option over Johnson’s services for this year, which they exercised based on that strong showing last season. Unfortunately, Johnson landed on the IL in April due to elbow tendinitis. He’s yet to return, meaning he’s only been able to get into six games this year. After a layoff of about four months, it seems he’s healthy enough to get back into game shape. Once he’s ready to return to the big league club, he should give the bullpen a boost for the final few weeks of the season.

White Sox Outright Yoan Aybar

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The White Sox have outrighted left-hander Yoan Aybar, tweets James Fegan of The Athletic. This opens a spot on the club’s 40-man roster, which should be filled tomorrow when their previously-reported agreement with Elvis Andrus will be made official.

Aybar, 25, bounced around a bit earlier this year, getting designated for assignment by the Rockies in March, getting claimed off waivers by the Yankees and again by the White Sox. Unfortunately, it’s been a dreary season for Aybar, as he’s registered a 7.67 ERA over 29 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s racked up strikeouts at a healthy 25.9% but has also given out free passes at a 16.8% rate.

Aybar was an outfield prospect in his earlier years, only converting to pitching prior to the 2018 season. Since then, he’s shown lots of strikeout potential but also a lack of control. It could have been reasonably assumed that he would deal with those control issues with more time on the hill, given his late conversion. However, that doesn’t seem to have come to fruition yet. Despite Aybar being claimed on waivers a few times earlier this year, it seems the other 29 teams passed on a chance to grab him this time around.

Players who have previously been outrighted or have more than three years of MLB service time can reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. Aybar doesn’t meet either of those requirements, meaning he will stick around with the White Sox as depth but without occupying a spot on the roster.

Mets Claim Yolmer Sanchez, Designate Patrick Mazeika

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The Mets announced Thursday that they’ve claimed veteran second baseman Yolmer Sanchez off waivers from the Red Sox and opened a spot on the roster by designating catcher Patrick Mazeika for assignment.

The 30-year-old Sanchez is a former Gold Glove winner at second base who never got going with the bat in his brief time with the Red Sox. In a small sample of 37 plate appearances, he went just 4-for-37 with an 11.4% walk rate, 29.5% strikeout rate and no extra-base hits.

Sanchez’s peak years with the bat came in 2017-18 with the White Sox, when he posted a combined .253/.312/.390 batting line while playing second base on a near-everyday basis. Granted, even that career-best production was about nine percent worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but for a player with Sanchez’s speed and defensive skills, that was plenty to make him a solid regular. His line dipped to .252/.318/.321 in 2019, but Sanchez also won a Gold Glove that year, so the Sox likely didn’t mind the tepid output at the plate.

In the time since winning that Gold Glove, though, Sanchez has barely seen the Majors. He logged just 21 plate appearances with the ChiSox during the shortened 2020 season and spent the 2021 season with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate where he posted a grisly .216/.309/.352 line in 355 plate appearances. Things were going much better for Sanchez with Boston’s Triple-A club, for whom he’d turned in a .247/.377/.413 line in 305 trips to the plate.

The Mets’ infield is banged up at the moment, with Luis Guillorme out as long as six weeks and Eduardo Escobar on the injured list due to an oblique strain. New York recently called up top infield prospect Brett Baty to man the hot corner — Baty homered in his first MLB at-bat last night — and have Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso to round out the infield. Guillorme’s absence takes away the Mets’ primary backup to Lindor at shortstop, however, but Sanchez can give them a capable bench option to back up any of Baty, Lindor and McNeil while they work toward getting back to better health.

As for Mazeika, the 28-year-old has had some brief looks with the Mets over the past two seasons but has never provided anything with the bat. He’s a .190/.236/.279 hitter in 159 plate appearances at the MLB level. Mazeika does have a more palatable .272/.367/.414 output in parts of two Triple-A seasons, and the Mets have been pleased with his defensive skills. He’ll be placed on waivers within a week. Any team that claims Mazeika could option him freely in 2022, but he’ll be out of minor league options next season.

Rays Designate Jimmy Yacabonis For Assignment

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The Rays have designated right-hander Jimmy Yacabonis for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for righty Luis Patino, who’s being recalled from Triple-A Durham to start tonight’s game, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.

Yacabonis, 30, was claimed out of the Marlins organization earlier in the month but has struggled considerably in his short time with the Rays, yielding four earned runs on six hits and two walks with four strikeouts in 3 2/3 frames. That brings Yacabonis to 11 runs in 13 innings this season (7.62) and boosts his career ERA to a mark of 5.92 in 117 innings between the Orioles, Mariners, Marlins and Rays.

Unsightly as those numbers may be, Yacabonis has a strong track record in both Double-A and Triple-A, and his ability to spin his slider has long intrigued teams. Yacabonis has been designated for assignment several times in his career but has been both claimed off waivers and traded in the past (in addition to a pair of outrights). The 2022 season is now his fifth with some level of Major League activity, further underscoring that teams are intrigued by quite a bit in his profile even if the results haven’t yet aligned with the minor league track record and his slider spin. The Rays will place him on waivers within the next week.

Patino, meanwhile, will return to the big leagues after a roller-coaster run in Durham. He’s missed significant time this season due to a Grade 2 oblique strain, throwing a wrench into the former top prospect’s bid to secure a full-time rotation spot in Tampa Bay. His most recent Triple-A run lasted three appearances: a perfect four-inning outing with four strikeouts, a disastrous start in which he yielded four runs in two-thirds of an inning, and another scoreless five-inning outing (no runs, three hits, two walks, six punchouts).

Patino has yet to establish himself in parts of three Major League seasons, although that’s not exactly unexpected for a pitcher who bursts into the big leagues at age 20. There are still some recent draftees who are the same age as Patino, but the 6’1″ righty nevertheless already has 102 2/3 MLB frames under his belt. There’s ample time for him to solidify his place alongside Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and, health-permitting, Shane Baz as a vital long-term rotation piece for manager Kevin Cash.

Royals Designate Joel Payamps For Assignment

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The Royals have designated right-hander Joel Payamps for assignment and optioned infielder Maikel Garcia to Triple-A Omaha, per a club announcement. That pair of moves will open roster space for Hunter Dozier to return from the paternity list and for righty Max Castillo to be recalled from Omaha. Castillo, whom the Royals acquired in the trade that sent Whit Merrifield to Toronto, will start tonight’s game in place of veteran Brad Keller, who has been moved from the rotation to the bullpen.

Payamps, 28, has been a solid member of the Kansas City bullpen this season, working to a 3.16 ERA with a 17.6% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a hearty 53.3% ground-ball rate, all of which makes his DFA at least a mild surprise. Fielding-independent metrics aren’t quite as bullish on the righty, who’s benefited from an elevated 78.9% left-on-base rate and given up a fair bit of hard contact (40.9%). Still, Payamps is averaging a career-high 95 mph on his heater, keeping the ball on the ground at a career-best rate and sporting a career-best 10.1% swinging-strike rate.

It’s not an elite package of results and secondary marks, but Payamps has had a better year than the standard DFA casualty and figures to have a decent chance of being claimed on waivers. That’ll be the Royals’ only course of action, as he can’t be traded now that the deadline has passed. Payamps is controllable for another four years beyond the current season but is out of minor league options, so any team to claim him will have to carry him on the MLB roster.

Castillo, 23, slotted in as the Royals’ No. 24 prospect at Baseball America in their post-deadline reranking of the system. He made his big league debut with Toronto earlier in the season, appearing in nine games (two of them starts) and working to a 3.05 ERA with a 20-to-5 K/BB ratio in 20 2/3 innings. It’s been a strong season on the whole for Castillo, who notched a 3.10 ERA in Double-A before jumping to Triple-A and yielding six runs in 31 innings (1.74 ERA).

Castillo isn’t a power pitcher but has displayed solid walk and ground-ball rates while garnering praise for an above-average changeup and command of the strike zone. The Royals will take at least some of the remainder of the season to evaluate him as a potential rotation piece, though it’s always possible that he ultimately slots in as a multi-inning reliever or swing man. For now, he’ll join Zack Greinke, Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic on the starting staff.

Phillies Claim Bradley Zimmer

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The Phillies announced Thursday that they’ve claimed outfielder Bradley Zimmer off waivers from the Blue Jays. He’ll take the active roster spot of center fielder Brandon Marsh, who’s headed to the 10-day injured list due to a sprained left ankle. Bryce Harper was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Zimmer, a former first-round pick and top prospect in Cleveland, was traded to the Jays on Opening Day and held a roster spot throughout the season due to his glovework and baserunning prowess. He’s posted a disastrous .105/.209/.237 batting line on the season, but that’s come in a minuscule sample of 87 plate appearances spread across 77 games.

Zimmer has never been a great hitter in the Majors, but he came into the 2022 season as a .225/.310/.347 hitter, so it’s fair to wonder whether he might’ve fared a bit better at the plate had he been given more than five to six plate appearances per week. At the time of his DFA, Zimmer had played in 22 games and received just 14 plate appearances over a span of more than six weeks.

At least in the short term, the Phils could have more at-bats to give Zimmer. He’ll give them a plus defender to slot in between lumbering sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in the outfield, providing some needed range to help offset the defensive deficiencies the Phillies face in the corners.

Marsh, acquired in a deadline deal sending top catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels, hit .250/.294/.313 in 34 plate appearances with the Phillies before sustaining his current injury on a play at the center field wall. Like Zimmer, he’s a plus defender in center, though Marsh is also a recent second-round pick and top prospect whom the Phils hope can be their everyday option in center for the foreseeable future. It seems likely that once Marsh returns, Zimmer could again be squeezed off the roster, although with rosters expanding to 28 in September, perhaps the Phils will hang onto Zimmer to give them a second plus glove in the outfield as a late-game replacement.

Harper’s move to the 60-day injured list is procedural and does not reset his timeline for a return. The “60-day” term on the 60-day IL is retroactive to whenever a player was first placed on the IL, and Harper has been aiming for a September return anyway. In other words, it’s a technicality that is not reflective of any snags in his rehab or any setbacks. He’s been working to mend a broken thumb sustained when he was plunked by an errant Blake Snell fastball. Harper also has a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, which has limited him to DH work due to an inability to throw from right field. That’ll likely remain his role once he returns next month.

Tarik Skubal Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his left forearm this week, manager A.J. Hinch announced to reporters (Twitter link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press). Skubal was already known to be out for the remainder of the 2022 season after being shifted to the 60-day injured list last week, but a surgery of this nature is significant and calls into question his readiness for the 2023 campaign. The Tigers have not provided a timetable for his recovery.

It’s a rather alarming escalation of events regarding Skubal, who just three weeks ago was at least a long-shot trade candidate in the midst of a breakout season. He exited an Aug. 1 start against the Twins after five excellent innings — three hits, no runs, no walks, four strikeouts — due to what the team termed as arm fatigue. At the time of his removal, Skubal downplayed the injury and voiced confidence that he could make his next start. As such, the subsequent trip to the 15-day injured list was viewed as something of a precautionary measure at the time.

Concern began to mount, however, when the Tigers abruptly shifted him to the 60-day injured list on Aug. 12. Hinch told reporters that day that Skubal was meeting with renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache to get an additional opinion on his elbow and forearm. The Tigers definitively shut him down for the season at that point.

Flexor tendon surgery doesn’t necessarily come with as lengthy of a recovery period as the typical 12 to 14 months for Tommy John surgery, but it’s hardly a short-term outlook in most cases. Every procedure and recovery process is different, but it’s worth noting that a pair of high-profile lefties — Danny Duffy and Skubal’s former teammate, Matthew Boyd — underwent similar procedures last year and have not yet made it back to the mound. Boyd (September surgery) and Duffy (October) were both targeting June returns but have since encountered setbacks that have impeded their progress.

Again, there are plenty of instances of pitchers returning from this injury more promptly, and the Tigers haven’t provided specifics on Skubal’s surgery. There’s no sense in attempting to speculate on a specific return date with incomplete information. That said, we’re about six months out from the start of 2023 Spring Training already, so simply looking to other flexor surgeries in recent years, it’s fair to wonder whether Skubal’s availability early in 2023 might be impacted.

It’s another blow to what’s been an astonishingly snakebitten Tigers pitching staff in 2022. For the past several years, the tantalizing trio of Skubal, Casey Mize and Matt Manning — all of them former top-100 prospects — was heralded as the foundation of Detroit’s pitching staff for years to come. Instead, that trio has been beset by injuries, two of which have now resulted in major surgeries. Skubal will face a months-long recovery from his flexor procedure. Mize underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year. Manning hasn’t gone under the knife but has dealt with a notable shoulder injury this year and a forearm strain of his own back in 2020. At the very least, Manning is healthy at the moment; he came off the injured list earlier this month and has made three solid appearances — though those are just his third, fourth and fifth starts of the season.

Detroit’s struggles extend well beyond injuries to that promising group of arms, however. Top outfield prospect Riley Greene missed the first two-plus months of the season with a broken foot and has been overmatched by MLB pitching since returning (.228/.287/.330 in 244 plate appearances). Both Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson were ranked among the game’s top five overall prospects heading into the season, but Torkelson endured similar struggles (.197/.282/.295) before being optioned to Triple-A earlier in the summer.

The Tigers have also had notable injuries to expected contributors (Austin Meadows, Michael Pineda), seen established 2021 contributors regress (Jeimer Candelario, Akil Baddoo) and received nowhere near the help they expected from their top two free-agent signings. Javier Baez is hitting just .227/.269/.378 on the year, while lefty Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched just 39 innings due to injury and to time spent away from the team while dealing with a reported marital issue. Rodriguez is expected to return this weekend (Twitter link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com), but the team’s season has clearly already gone off the rails.

Any of these woes, in isolation, would perhaps be manageable for a team to overcome. Taken in totality, however, there’s no reasonable way to expect a team to withstand that type of strain on the roster. The dam finally burst last week when the Tigers fired general manager Al Avila.

The Tigers will have a new general manager within the coming months, but it’s not yet clear just how said executive and how owner Chris Ilitch envision fixing the mess that has been the 2022 season. That much was true even before the Tigers learned that their top young starter required surgery to repair a flexor tendon. Skubal made 21 starts this season and pitched to a solid 3.52 ERA with an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a quality 45.7% grounder rate.

Prior to his injury, Skubal’s development was one of the very few bright spots in an otherwise calamitous Tigers season, but he’ll now add to the daunting sense of uncertainty that permeates the roster. The Tigers control Skubal and Mize through the 2026 season. Manning is controllable through 2027. Torkelson and Greene can be controlled through at least 2028.

Royals Move Brad Keller To Bullpen

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The Royals have moved right-hander Brad Keller from the rotation to the bullpen, manager Mike Matheny announced to reporters (link via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). For now, Matheny indicated the plan is merely to “take a look” at Keller in this role, suggesting the organization hasn’t necessarily giving up on him as a starter entirely.

Keller’s shift to the ’pen is a reminder of how quickly things can change in baseball. Just a month ago, he looked the part of an appealing trade chip for the Royals, having pitched to a 3.96 ERA through his first 17 starts. Keller’s 16.4% strikeout rate in that time was well south of the league average, but he also boasted better-than-average walk and ground-ball rates (7.8% and 51.6%, respectively). He’d done a fine job managing hard contact and, while obviously not an overpowering pitcher, looked well on his way to another season as a solid back-of-the-rotation innings eater.

In five starts since that time, however, Keller has been rocked for 25 runs (24 earned) through just 24 2/3 innings of work. He’s twice surrendered eight runs in a start and yielded five home runs in that time (after allowing just four in his prior 43 innings of work). Keller has also walked an uncharacteristic 12.3% of his opponents during this stretch, and after allowing an 88.5 mph average exit velocity and 38.8% hard-hit rate through his first 17 starts, has yielded a 92.1 mph average exit velo and 50% hard-hit rate during this recent slump.

It’s a jarring stretch, one that mirrors many of the struggles the 27-year-old endured in a down 2021 year that, until recently, looked like an aberration. Keller was a steady member of the Kansas City staff from 2018-20 before slipping in ’21 and posting an unsightly 5.39 ERA in 133 2/3 frames (26 starts). The primary factors behind his struggles were spikes in both his walk rate and home-run rate, as has been the case over the past month. Even with those 2021 struggles and this recent stretch of five dismal outings, Keller still carries a career 4.19 ERA with well above-average ground-ball tendencies.

As is always the case, there’s a certain level of intrigue when taking a starter and dropping him into a relief role. Pitchers typically throw harder when they know they’re working in short stints and can thus throw at a higher intensity without needing to worry about saving some gas for second and third trips through the batting order. Keller’s slider has long graded out as a plus pitch, and we know he can rack up grounders. If a few extra ticks of velocity can improve the results on his sinker or generate some extra whiffs with his four-seamer (which already has above-average spin), it’s possible the bullpen version of Keller could turn some heads.

On the other side of the coin, of course, continued struggles in his new role could muddy the waters for Keller and his outlook with the Royals. He’s already in his fifth season with Kansas City, and the former Rule 5 draft pick — one of the best Rule 5 selections in recent memory, to the Royals’ credit — is only under team control through the 2023 season. He’ll be due a raise on this year’s $4.825MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, and although his struggles will limit the magnitude of that raise, he could still pull in something north of $6MM.

The Royals may tender Keller a contract regardless, considering that a reasonable price to pay for a pitcher with his track record — 2022 struggles notwithstanding. Still, a nice finish to the season — whether pitching well enough out of the ’pen to win back a rotation spot or simply shining as a reliever down the stretch — would solidify the ground on which he’s standing. The Royals did discuss Keller with other teams prior to the trade deadline, so it’s likely that those interested parties will also be keeping tabs on how he performs in a new role.

With Keller stepping to the side, the Royals’ rotation will have some fluidity. Zack Greinke will remain in place as a veteran workhorse, followed by right-hander Brady Singer, who appears in the midst of a breakout. Lefties Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic have pedestrian numbers overall but have both been quite sharp in their past eight starts. Any of Jonathan Heasley, Jackson Kowar, Drew Parrish or Max Castillo could be options to step into Keller’s rotation spot down the stretch.

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