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Orioles Hire Matt Borgschulte And Ryan Fuller As Co-Hitting Coaches

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The Orioles announced a pair of additions to the coaching staff this morning, hiring Matt Borgschulte and Ryan Fuller as co-hitting coaches. (Joe Trezza of MLB.com first reported the moves yesterday). They’ll replace Don Long, who was let go last month after a three-year stint in Baltimore.

Borgschulte comes over from the Twins organization, where he’s spent the past four seasons. The 31-year-old worked his way up to hitting coach with the Twins’ top affiliate in St. Paul before earning his first big league job in Baltimore. Fuller, also 31, is an internal promotion. The O’s hired him as a minor league instructor over the 2019-20 offseason. As with Borgschulte, this’ll be Fuller’s initial job on a major league staff.

In addition to the coaching changes, the club also provided reporters (including Trezza and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com) updates on a trio of injured players this week. Left-hander Keegan Akin recently underwent a hip adductor repair, his second procedure within the past couple months. Outfielder Austin Hays and infielder Ramón Urías, meanwhile, each recently underwent core repair surgeries. It’s expected that all three players will be ready for Spring Training.

Pirates Release Three Players

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The Pirates announced they’ve released three players: right-hander Tanner Anderson, catcher Taylor Davis and utilityman Phillip Evans. Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster now sits at 37.

Anderson and Davis each made it to the majors at the very tail end of the regular season. Anderson was selected to the big league club on September 30. He made his first and only appearance of the season that night, tossing five innings of two-run ball out of the bullpen. It was very brief homecoming for the 28-year-old, who began his MLB career with the Bucs in 2018.

While Anderson has now earned a major league call in three separate seasons, he has just 12 appearances and 38 2/3 cumulative innings to show for it. Anderson owns just a 5.82 ERA in that limited time, but he has a 4.52 mark in more than 200 career Triple-A frames. That includes a 4.01 ERA over 51 2/3 innings between the A’s and Pirates’s top affiliates in 2021, albeit with an unexciting 12.3% strikeout rate.

Davis only made two MLB appearances, collecting a couple of singles in five at-bats. He’s appeared in parts of four major league campaigns but hasn’t tallied more than 20 plate appearances in any year. The 31-year-old spent most of this past season with the Triple-A affiliates of the Orioles and Bucs, hitting .248/.344/.325 between the two stops.

Evans has the most big league time of this group. He played in just under half the Pirates’ games in 2021, picking up 247 plate appearances while starting games at all four corner spots on the diamond. Evans drew walks at a robust 11.3% clip but didn’t make a huge offensive impact. He popped just five home runs en route to a .206/.312/.299 slash line.

Gabe Kapler, Kevin Cash Named Managers Of The Year

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The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the results of Manager of the Year balloting this evening. Giants’ skipper Gabe Kapler was named the National League winner, while Rays’ manager Kevin Cash claimed his second consecutive win in the American League.

Kapler and Cash managed the best regular season team in the respective leagues. With balloting conducted before the start of the playoffs, voters are left to judge solely on clubs’ regular season bodies of work. In addition to posting their respective league’s best records, both San Francisco and Tampa Bay finished second in run differential (behind the Dodgers and Astros, respectively).

The Giants’ magical season was unexpected. While most preseason projections figured the Dodgers and Padres would battle for the NL West crown, San Francisco shockingly won a franchise-best 107 games to claim the top seed. That came with an aging core of position players on a team that had gone just 29-31 in 2020, making it all the more impressive that the Giants were able to consistently play at an elite level all year long. The team rewarded Kapler with a two-year contract extension last week.

Manager of the Year awards frequently come to skippers whose teams outperform expectations, so it’s little surprise Kapler fared well in the balloting. He appeared on 29 of 30 ballots, garnering 28 first-place votes and one second-place finish. The other first-place votes went to Craig Counsell of the Brewers and Mike Shildt, who was nevertheless dismissed by the Cardinals after the season. Counsell and Shildt finished second and third, respectively, while the Braves’ Brian Snitker and Dodgers’ Dave Roberts also picked up some down-ballot support.

While the Giants’ great season was unexpected, the Rays’ success shouldn’t have come as much surprise. Tampa Bay also had the AL’s best record in 2020, a season in which they claimed their second pennant. That said, the Rays enter each season in a loaded AL East that includes the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays, each of whom have significantly higher payrolls.

Nevertheless, the Rays continue to churn out talented players and leverage match-ups to great success. Tampa Bay has posted a winning record in four consecutive seasons, and the club has a cumulative 554-478 mark (.537 winning percentage) since Cash took the helm in 2015. That run of consistent success contributes to Cash becoming the first back-to-back Manager of the Year winner since Bobby Cox in 2004-05.

 

Cash’s hold on the balloting wasn’t quite as resounding as Kapler’s. The Rays’ skipper appeared on 28 of 30 sheets, garnering 19 first-place votes. Scott Servais of the Mariners (five), Charlie Montoyo of the Blue Jays (three), Dusty Baker of the Astros (two) and Alex Cora of the Red Sox (one) each garnered at least one first-place nod themselves, with Servais and Baker joining Cash as finalists. In addition to that group of five, the White Sox’s Tony La Russa and the Tigers’ A.J. Hinch garnered some down-ballot support.

See full balloting in each league.

Sixth Year Still A Sticking Point In Talks Between Freddie Freeman, Braves

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Though the consensus around the game remains that a reunion between Freddie Freeman and the Braves is something of a fait accompli, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the two sides are still hung up on the length of the deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale had previously reported that the 2020 NL MVP had already rejected the Braves’ best offer ($135MM over five years), though it’s unclear if that’s the same offer the club had made when Heyman reported a “gap” between the two sides in September.

Freeman, who has played the entirety of his twelve-year big-league career in Atlanta, is reportedly looking for a deal that would pay him something closer to $200MM over six years. Whether or not the Braves have bumped up their dollar offer is unclear, but the first baseman, who cemented his place in the annals of Braves history during the club’s 2021 World Series run, appears set on receiving a deal that would take him through at least his age-37 season. It’s quite clear that a carbon-copy of the five-year, $130MM deal Paul Goldschmidt signed with the Cardinals ahead of the 2019 season won’t get it done. MLBTR projects that Freeman will ultimately sign for six years and $180MM.

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has already confirmed the club will run a higher payroll in 2022. To keep Freeman around, they’ll have to; following yesterday’s signing of Manny Piña, Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates (including arbitration salary projections) that the Braves have already committed just shy of $133MM to their 2022 roster. This figure could decrease with a suspension of Marcell Ozuna (who’s slated to earn $16MM next year) or if the club chooses to non-tender a few of its arbitration-eligible players (Johan Camargo, Sean Newcomb, and Orlando Arcia are all non-tender candidates), but not by enough to accommodate the roughly $30MM Freeman will command on an annual basis without a significant payroll bump.

Beyond Freeman’s importance as the face of the franchise (a role he inherited from Chipper Jones), his career numbers justify a significant investment. Since debuting as a September call-up in 2010, Freeman has put together the numbers of a likely future Hall 0f Famer, compiling a .295/.384/.509 career slash-line while mashing 271 homers. His best year came in the abbreviated 2020 season, when he put together a monstrous .341/.462/.640 line across 60 games and won his first career MVP. A pillar of consistency, Freeman hasn’t posted an OPS+ below 132 since 2012 (his age-22 season) and has played in at least 147 games in all but two of his eleven full seasons. He’s not yet shown any signs of regression, as he followed up his MVP year with a .300/.393/.503 line (basically identical to his career marks) and an OPS north of 1.000 in the playoffs.

Among the many interesting wrinkles in the surprisingly drawn-out process of a reigning World Champion attempting to hold on to its best player is the Braves’ ownership structure. Because Liberty Media, the club’s owner since a complicated stock swap deal with Time Warner in 2007, is a publicly traded company, it must disclose a detailed account of its earnings on a quarterly basis, giving fans and followers of the industry a unique look into the team’s internal financial workings. Maury Brown of Forbes reports that the club posted baseball-related revenues of $222MM in the third quarter of 2021 (roughly the second half of the season) alone.

Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, who beat the Braves in both the ’96 and ’99 Fall Classics, have at least kicked the tires on Freeman — a development likely to send shivers down the spines of Braves fans. Though hardly surprising — every team with money and a need at first base is likely to at least check in — the news will only put further pressure on Anthopoulos to re-sign his team’s most consistent and recognizable player. Travis d’Arnaud, Ozzie Albies, and Atlanta-area native Dansby Swanson (an infant when the Braves last won a title) have already joined the chorus of fans demanding a speedy deal, calling on club management to “re-sign Freddie” during their speeches at Truist Park following the team’s championship parade.

Even if the Braves do wrap up a deal to keep Freeman in Atlanta into his elder years, Anthopoulos’ offseason business is unlikely to be done. Three of the four outfielders the club acquired in July (Joc Pederson, NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario, and World Series MVP Jorge Soler) are also free agents, and the fourth (Adam Duvall) is arbitration-eligible after turning down his half of a $7MM mutual option. With Ozuna’s future in Atlanta uncertain, Ronald Acuña Jr. still recovering from a major knee injury, and top prospect Cristian Pache a major question mark with the bat, the reigning champ’s outfield situation remains up in the air. They may also wish to add a veteran starter to a mix that includes Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Charlie Morton, and a stable of promising-but-unproven arms (including Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, Tucker Davidson, Kyle Muller, and Touki Toussaint) with mixed records in the big leagues.

Phillies Hire Howie Kendrick As Special Assistant

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The Phillies announced a series of hirings in the front office and on the coaching staff this afternoon. Perhaps most notably, longtime big leaguer Howie Kendrick has joined the club as a special assistant to general manager Sam Fuld. The Phils also hired Brian Kaplan as assistant pitching coach and director of pitching development, while Jason Camilli has joined the staff as assistant hitting coach.

Kendrick played in the majors for fifteen seasons, breaking in with the Angels in 2006. The right-handed hitting second baseman spent the next eight seasons in Anaheim, regularly offering above-average production on both sides of the ball. His .285/.338/.464 showing earned him an All-Star nod in 2011, and Kendrick picked up some down ballot MVP support after posting a .293/.347/.397 mark with plus defensive ratings in 2014.

While Kendrick spent the bulk of his career as a regular with the Halos, he adapted with aplomb to more of a situational role later in his career. After a pair of solid seasons with the Dodgers, Kendrick landed with the Phillies in November 2016 via trade. His playing tenure in Philly lasted only a few months, as the eventual last place Phils sent him to the Nationals just before the ensuing trade deadline. While Kendrick’s stint in Philadelphia was brief, he clearly garnered the respect of those within the organization.

Productive as Kendrick was in Anaheim, he might wind up being best remembered for his final few seasons in Washington. While the Nats cut back on his playing time over his final few years, Kendrick was as effective as ever from 2018-19. After mashing at a .344/.395/.572 clip during the 2019 regular season, he had a stellar postseason that helped the franchise to its first World Series title. Kendrick was named the 2019 NLCS MVP after a .333/.412/.600 showing during the Nats’ sweep of the Cardinals. He returned for a final season in 2020 and announced his retirement last December.

While Kendrick is certainly the most famous of the Phillies’ recent hires, Kaplan and Camilli figure to be more involved in the organization on a day-to-day basis as members of the coaching staff. Kaplan comes over from the private ranks, as he’d previously been the vice president and co-founder of Cressey Sports Performance, an independent training facility in Florida. One of CSP’s other co-founders, Eric Cressey, also works in strength and conditioning with the Yankees.

Camilli comes over from the Reds, where he spent the 2021 season coaching their Arizona Complex League affiliate. The 46-year-old had previously spent time as an instructor in the Nationals and D-Backs farm systems. He’ll pair with new Philadelphia hitting coach Kevin Long, whom the club hired away from the Nats last month.

Angels Reportedly Focused On Short-Term Rotation Additions

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After agreeing to terms on a one-year contract with Noah Syndergaard earlier today, the Angels are still in the market for rotation upgrades but are focused on impact arms available on short-term deals, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Heyman suggests Justin Verlander as a potential match in that regard, and the Halos were in attendance at Verlander’s recent showcase.

That said, it’s not clear whether Verlander would be amenable to a one-year pact. Astros owner Jim Crane said last month that he expected Verlander to pursue a contract “of some length,” suggesting at least a two-year deal with those comments. A two-year deal for a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber doesn’t seem outlandish, even with the future Hall of Famer’s lengthy layoff due to 2020 Tommy John surgery. Verlander received an $18.4MM qualifying offer from Houston last week and is widely expected to turn it down.

Any multi-year pact at all would require a philosophical change for an Angels team that hasn’t signed a free-agent starter to a multi-year deal since then-GM Jerry Dipoto (now the Mariners’ president of baseball operations) inked Joe Blanton to a modest two-year contract. The only multi-year deals the Angels have given to any pitchers since that time have come in the form of a two-year extension for closer Huston Street in 2015 and a two-year deal that bought out Shohei Ohtani’s first two arbitration seasons. Prior to this morning’s agreement with Syndergaard, the last time the Angels had spent even $20MM to sign or extend a pitcher came in Dec. 2011 when they signed C.J. Wilson to a five-year pact.

The Angels have now cycled though several different general managers in that time. Dipoto resigned in 2015 following a highly publicized spat with former Halos skipper Mike Scioscia and was replaced by veteran executive Bill Stoneman on an interim basis. Billy Eppler ran baseball operations for the next half decade in Anaheim, and he was replaced last offseason by Perry Minasian — now in his second offseason as general manager.

It’s unlikely that all of those baseball ops leaders were staunchly against multi-year pacts for free agents — particularly not when rotation needs were often so obvious. The common thread throughout the aversion to pitching commitments of any length is owner Arte Moreno, who has shown a clear willingness to spend heavily on bats (e.g. Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Justin Upton) but not on arms.

Only time will tell whether Minasian will be given the latitude to issue a multi-year deal of even minor note, but this morning’s deal with Syndergaard seemed straight out of the playbook from prior offseasons: a one-year deal of note for a pitcher with a strong track record and/or a fair bit of upside. That’s the same formula that led to signings of Matt Harvey, Julio Teheran, Jose Quintana and Trevor Cahill, though the Halos will surely hope for better results from their sizable investment in Syndergaard.

If the ostensible insistence on one-year arrangements for starters continues, there are certainly some notable names on the open market who could potentially be had at that term (e.g. Zack Greinke, Danny Duffy, Johnny Cueto, Rich Hill). However, a strong ownership preference for short-term deals could also conceivably push Minasian to the trade market, where the Reds, Marlins and division-rival Athletics ought to all have notable arms on which they’re willing to listen.

After signing Syndergaard, the Angels owe $129.95MM in guaranteed contracts to six players. Add in a modest arbitration class and pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and they’re projected for around $150MM in 2022 payroll, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. There’s plenty of space between that sum and last year’s franchise-record $182MM Opening Day payroll — which Moreno could well be comfortable raising. But for Angels fans hoping to see a match with Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman or Kevin Gausman, reports of a continued fixation on short-term deals don’t bode especially well.

Trevor Story To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Confirming a widely expected development, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that Trevor Story will not accept the Rockies’ qualifying offer ahead of tomorrow’s deadline. As such, he’ll forego the one-year, $18.4MM deal and test the open market as part of a historic class of high-end free agent shortstops.

Assuming Story does not ultimately re-sign with Colorado, the Rox will receive a compensation pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A presuming Story signs for $50MM or more, or a pick between the second round and Competitive Balance Round B should he sign for less than $50MM. The former is, of course, more likely; MLBTR has him pegged for six years and $126MM.

Perhaps the more intriguing news in Saunders’ report is that the list of teams who’ve checked in with the shortstop (Saunders counts 8) does not include the Rockies. While Story is widely expected to leave the Mile High City this winter, news that Colorado hasn’t even checked in with their longtime star’s camp is noteworthy — and makes their decision not to trade him at this year’s trade deadline all the more puzzling. Per a June report from Saunders, Story made it clear to Rockies’ management he had little interest in engaging in extension talks (perhaps related to the club’s handling of Nolan Arenado following his extension), and letting him walk without at least the appearance of a fight may not endear new GM Bill Schmidt to the Colorado fanbase.

Though Story’s walk-year numbers (.251/.329/.471, with an OPS+ of 103) hardly represent his strongest showing, his career baseline of .272/.340/.523 (112 OPS+) tells a different tale, particularly given Story’s consistently stellar glovework (69 DRS across six seasons) at a premium position. The relative mediocrity of Story’s 2021 may also have been driven by an elbow injury that sent him to the 10-day IL in late May. An MRI at the time revealed no structural damage, and the shortstop looked much more like his old self in the second half, posting an .843 OPS (just below his career .863 mark).

Story’s OPS+ numbers take the effect of Coors Field into account, but it is worth noting that his home/road splits are significant; his career OPS at Coors (.972) dwarfs his career mark (.752) closer to sea level. This may give teams pause in offering Story the sort of mega-deal that Carlos Correa and Corey Seager (and possibly Marcus Semien) are likely to receive, but he remains a fairly safe bet to at least push nine figures of guaranteed money.

Presuming Story ultimately departs, the Rockies do have an in-house replacement at the ready in former top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who mostly played second base in 2021 but also served as Story’s deputy at short. The versatility of Ryan McMahon (who played second and third in his breakout 2021) and speedster Garrett Hampson (who’s seen time at five positions in the bigs) gives the club a chance to get creative in putting its infield together. It may also open a space for power-hitting corner infielder Elehuris Montero, the Rox’ number-four prospect per MLB.com, to make it to Denver in 2022.

Tigers Sign Eduardo Rodriguez

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The Tigers have made the biggest move of the 2021-22 offseason to date, formally announcing a five-year contract with free agent starter Eduardo Rodríguez. The deal comes with a $77MM guarantee and can max out at $80MM, depending upon incentives.

The contract also affords Rodriguez the opportunity to opt out of the after the second season of the deal. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports that Rodriguez will earn a combined $28MM total from 2022-23 (Twitter link), meaning he’ll be faced with the decision of whether to opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM on his contract after the 2023 campaign. Rodríguez, who recently rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, is represented by Mato Sports Management.

Rodríguez was seemingly in strong demand — his contract tops MLBTR’s projected five-year, $70MM estimate — drawing varying levels of interest from the Blue Jays, Angels and incumbent Red Sox. (Boston presented him with a multi-year offer in addition to the one-year qualifying offer.) Detroit will wind up topping the bidding, in the process installing a mid-rotation arm to its fairly young starting staff. That was known to be a priority for the Tigers’ front office, with general manager Al Avila frankly telling reporters after the season that adding an established starter “would be a necessity” for the club.

Detroit has also been tied to right-handers Jon Gray and Anthony DeSclafani, but it seems Rodríguez will be the Tigers’ big rotation add of the offseason. He’ll serve as the veteran anchor in a starting group that also includes young, highly-touted arms like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning. With Spencer Turnbull expected to miss most or all of 2022 after undergoing July Tommy John surgery and Matthew Boyd looking likely to be non-tendered after undergoing a flexor procedure, it’s possible Detroit looks to add additional rotation depth later in the offseason. It’s unlikely any subsequent pick-up will be as impactful or as costly as Rodríguez, whose reported contract terms are quite strong.

Not only does he beat MLBTR’s projected guarantee by $7MM, he picks up the freedom to re-test the market two years from now. The southpaw won’t turn 29 years old until April 2022, meaning he’ll only be entering his age-31 campaign over the 2023-24 offseason. If he pitches well over the next couple seasons, it’s easy to envision Rodríguez opting out and hitting free agency in search of another long-term deal during a winter without any sort of uncertainty about the collective bargaining agreement. Yet the contract’s five-year guarantee also gives him solid stability to guard against injuries or underperformance that could crop up over the next two years.

That Rodríguez generated such strong interest and landed this kind of commitment from the Tigers serves as the latest reminder of teams’ changing methods of player evaluation. On the surface, Rodríguez wouldn’t appear to be coming off a particularly impressive season. He racked up 157 2/3 innings over 32 appearances (31 starts), but he did so with a career-worst 4.74 ERA. Not long ago, a five-year guarantee for a pitcher coming off a platform season in which his ERA was pushing 5.00 would’ve been inconceivable.

Teams are going far beyond ERA to evaluate pitchers in 2021, though, and Rodríguez’s underlying numbers were very strong. He struck out 27.4% of opponents this past season, a mark that’s nearly five percentage points above the league average for starters. Rodríguez’s 11.7% swinging strike rate is also a bit north of the 10.9% league mark, his fourth consecutive healthy season generating whiffs at greater than an 11% clip.

Rodríguez also has solid control, with his walk percentages typically hovering right around the league average. He doled out free passes at just a 7% rate in 2021, the lowest mark of his career. And despite pitching in one of the game’s most hitter-friendly home parks and divisions, he’s never really had issues preventing home runs.

More than anything, Rodríguez’s poor run prevention numbers in 2021 were the result of what happened when batters put the ball into play. Opponents had a .363 batting average on balls in play this past season, the second-highest mark among the 129 pitchers with 100+ frames. It’s not as if Rodríguez was simply getting battered night in and night out, though; opposing hitters’ 86.5 MPH average exit velocity was in the bottom ten percent leaguewide, while their 33.6% hard contact rate was in the worst fifteen percent.

Between his combination of swing-and-miss stuff, control and soft contact, Rodríguez fared quite well in the eyes of ERA estimators. While his actual ERA ranked 100th of that group of 129 hurlers, his FIP (3.32) and SIERA (3.64) checked in 21st and 24th, respectively. The Tigers are clearly of the belief that those metrics better reflect Rodríguez’s true talent level, with his ghastly 2021 run prevention attributable mostly to some combination of poor luck and a Boston defense that was the league’s worst at turning balls in play into outs. In prior seasons, Rodríguez’s peripherals and ERA aligned a lot more closely, and he posted a cumulative 3.92 ERA/3.84 FIP between 2017-19.

A deeper dive into Rodríguez’s underlying numbers explains why the Tigers were willing to put forth this kind of financial outlay, but that’s not to say the move is without risk. Long-term investments in pitchers are inherently a gamble, considering the rate of pitcher injuries throughout the league. And while Rodríguez has been a durable workhorse for the bulk of his career, he didn’t pitch at all in 2020 after a scary bout with myocarditis (essentially inflammation of the heart) that arose from a case of COVID-19.

Rodríguez was open about the toll the disease took on his body, with doctors forbidding seemingly mundane tasks like walking his dog and playing video games for months — to say nothing of a strenuous activity like pitching (link via James Wagner of the New York Times). In that context, his return to the field in 2021 was remarkable, and he didn’t look worse for wear once he could return to the diamond. Detroit’s medical staff no doubt did due diligence on evaluating how likely that unfortunate circumstance would be of affecting Rodríguez over the long term.

It’s not yet clear precisely how Rodríguez will be paid over the coming seasons. If he’s paid a flat $15.4MM sum annually, that’d push Detroit’s 2022 payroll just above $125MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Non-tendering a few arbitration eligible players like Boyd, Niko Goodrum and Dustin Garneau could knock $10MM+ off that tally. The Tigers would still be far above the approximate $81MM payroll with which they entered the 2021 season (via Cot’s Baseball Contracts), but the franchise has spent nearly $200MM on players in seasons past.

The Tigers’ biggest spending days came during the tenure of late owner Mike Ilitch. The franchise drastically reduced payroll after he passed away and left primary control of the team to his son Christopher Ilitch. Detroit has been amidst a massive rebuild for essentially all of the latter’s ownership tenure, however, and Ilitch suggested in August that he’d be prepared to spend for “high-impact” players. Rodríguez certainly qualifies, and it’s generally expected the Tigers will be among the primary suitors in this offseason’s star-studded free agent shortstop class as well. Indeed, the Detroit front office has had at least cursory conversations with representatives for Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Trevor Story, among others.

As for the Red Sox, they’ll now have to replace a player who’s been a valuable rotation member for the past six seasons. Rodríguez broke in with Boston in 2015 and has been a fixture on the starting staff ever since (excluding his missed 2020 campaign). He was a key member of the Sox’s World Series-winning 2018 team, finished sixth in 2019 AL Cy Young Award voting and pitched in the postseason for Boston in each of 2017, 2018 and 2021.

Because the Red Sox made him a qualifying offer, they will pick up a compensatory pick in next summer’s amateur draft. As a team that neither received revenue sharing nor exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, Boston receives a pick after Competitive Balance Round B (typically in the 70-75 overall range).

The Tigers, meanwhile, will forfeit a pick as a penalty for signing away a qualified free agent. Detroit received revenue sharing in 2021, meaning they’ll only lose their third-highest draft choice next year. Were the Tigers to sign another qualified free agent this offseason, they’d surrender their fourth-highest pick as well.

Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic first reported that Rodríguez was nearing agreement on a multi-year deal with the Tigers. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported Rodríguez and the Tigers were in agreement on a five-year contract. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the guarantee to land within the $77MM – $80MM range. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the presence of an opt-out clause. Heyman reported the guarantee to be $77MM, that Rodríguez’s opt-out possibility came after the 2023 season, and the possibility of incentives. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press pegged those possible incentives at $3MM and reported the presence of no-trade protection.

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners closed the book on what turned out to be a roughly two-year rebuild with a 90-win season that saw them fight for a Wild Card berth up until the final series of the season. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will add aggressively this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Marco Gonzales, LHP: $24MM through 2024 (contract includes $15MM club option for 2025, with no buyout)
  • Evan White, 1B: $21.4MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2026; contract also includes 2027-28 club options)
  • Ken Giles, RHP: $5.5MM through 2022 (includes $500K buyout of $9.5MM club option for 2023)
  • Chris Flexen, RHP: $2.75MM through 2022 (contract includes $4MM* club option for 2023)
  • Total 2022 commitment: $14.65MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $53.65MM

*=Flexen’s option price doubles to $8MM with 300 total innings from 2021-22; he pitched 179 2/3 innings in 2021.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Declined $20MM option on 3B Kyle Seager in favor of $2MM buyout
  • Declined four-year, $66MM option on LHP Yusei Kikuchi; Kikuchi declined $13MM player option to become free agent

Free Agents

Over the past three years, the Mariners have traded James Paxton, Omar Narvaez, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Jean Segura, Edwin Encarnacion, Roenis Elias, Austin Nola, Austin Adams and Kendall Graveman with an eye toward the future. This year’s deadline trade sending Graveman to the division-rival Astros in exchange for five years of control over Abraham Toro could go down as the final forward-looking, “big picture” trade of a veteran for young talent.

After all, the Mariners were in playoff contention until the very end of the year. They fell just shy of their first postseason appearance in two decades — the longest drought in Major League Baseball — but the performance of the young core acquired by Dipoto & Co. sets the stage for an active offseason.

One change that appears certain lies at third base. Kyle Seager, the heart and soul of this Mariners club for many years, fought back tears when manager Scott Servais pulled him from the ninth inning of Seattle’s final game. In one of the more emotional moments of the year throughout all of MLB (video link), the home fans chanted Seager’s name as the dugout emptied and he hugged and bid farewell to the only team he’s known. Seager was given the third base bag and took a curtain call clutching it over his head as he thanked a raucous fan base.

It’s almost symbolic, in a bittersweet way for fans, that this turning of the page coincides with the face of the Mariners for the past several seasons likely leaving. Seager’s $20MM option was declined at season’s end, and while a reunion can’t be expressly ruled out, the scene at T-Mobile Park on Oct. 3 certainly had the feel of a goodbye.

There’s no “replacing” a player this revered and beloved in the clubhouse — shortstop J.P. Crawford could scarcely speak when praising Seager after that final game — but Seager’s likely departure leaves an opening in the lineup. The aforementioned Toro could step into an everyday role in that spot but can also play second. Similarly, Ty France has experience at third base but is a better defender at first or second base.

Given how little the Mariners have on the books in 2022, there’s really no free agent who should be off limits. Seattle has only $14.65MM in guaranteed 2022 contracts, and the arbitration class should only bump that number to around $40MM. This is the same ownership group that averaged an Opening Day payroll of $152.1MM from 2017-19.

Dipoto has already said this winter that he’ll prioritize “adaptable” free agents — those who are comfortable moving around if need be. He name-checked both Marcus Semien and Javier Baez when making those comments, instantly making each a potential fit. Kris Bryant is another such option — a possible everyday third baseman who could fill in as needed across the diamond or at any of the three outfield spots. Old friend Chris Taylor, meanwhile, has built a career on being “adaptable.”

What’s become clear is that there’s little interest in displacing Crawford at shortstop. The 26-year-old (27 in January) won a Gold Glove in 2020 and has cemented himself as a quality defender with an improving bat (.273/.338/.376 in 2021). Dipoto has already informed Crawford that the Mariners see him as the everyday shortstop. Perhaps Crawford would be amenable to sliding elsewhere if the Mariners got serious in a pursuit of Carlos Correa, but it seems far likelier they’ll make a run at players in the Bryant/Semien/Baez/Taylor tiers. Trevor Story is also in that “second” tier of free-agent shortstops and could feasibly improve his market by showing an openness to second base.

While Crawford, France and Toro each have 2022 spots locked down, Evan White’s future is less certain. The 25-year-old was the No. 17 pick in 2017 and inked a six-year, $24MM contract with three club options before making his MLB debut. So far, he’s struggled to a .165/.235/.308 slash in the Majors. It’s only 304 plate appearances, however, and White was surely hampered by a 2021 hip injury that required surgery. There’s still room for him to be a part of the future — he’s earning just $1.4MM in 2022 — but it’s tough to pencil him into the Opening Day lineup in a win-now season, especially with France’s breakout at first.

The Mariners don’t have a set DH and could use that spot as an opportunity to add even more offense — a Nelson Cruz reunion would be well-received by fans, for instance — but there’s no indication that’s a priority. In fact, keeping the DH spot relatively free may be of particular importance as the team hopes for better health from 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.

A career .258/.343/.450 hitter (121 wRC+) through his first 464 MLB plate appearances, Lewis was limited to 36 games this year after undergoing surgery to repair a right meniscus tear. It’s not the first time he’s encountered right knee troubles; Lewis suffered a dual meniscus tear and ACL tear in that same knee in 2016. Setting aside some occasional DH reps for him could have obvious benefits.

Beyond Lewis, the M’s have two of the game’s most highly touted young outfielders in Jarred Kelenic and the yet-to-debut Julio Rodriguez. Kelenic struggled in his first taste of the Majors but improved with a .233/.304/.455 line following the trade deadline and a .248/.331/.524 showing over his final month. Rodriguez, meanwhile, posted a ludicrous .347/.441/.560 line between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s considered a Top 5 prospect in all of baseball and could debut in early 2022.

Even after the trio of Lewis, Kelenic and Rodriguez, the Mariners are deep. Taylor Trammell had his own struggles during his 2021 debut, but he’s another now-former Top 100 prospect who posted solid numbers in Triple-A (.263/.362/.456) and only recently turned 24. Jake Fraley didn’t hit for average but was an OBP machine who walked in more than 17% of his plate appearances. And, of course, veteran right fielder Mitch Haniger returned from a harrowing sequence of fluke injuries to crush a career-high 39 home runs.

Haniger’s name has been bandied about the rumor circuit for years now, and there will surely be fans and pundits who speculate on his availability once again now that he’s a year from free agency. Howver, it’d be difficult to move him when he’s projected for a palatable $8.5MM salary and was a key middle-of-the-lineup presence in 2021. Seattle’s aim this winter is to deepen the lineup, and a trade of Haniger would run counter to that thinking. Dipoto is an open-minded baseball ops leader and could at least listen to offers, but a Haniger extension seems more prudent to explore than a possible trade.

Behind the plate, the M’s have a trio of options. Tom Murphy gives them a veteran who has had some big league success, while either Cal Raleigh or Luis Torrens could be a long-term solution. That depth could draw the interest of other clubs in need of catching help, with the Marlins standing out as a team who could entice the Mariners with some starting pitching.

The rotation will be a focus for Seattle this winter. Marco Gonzales shook off a terrible April, returning from a five-week IL stint to log a 3.60 ERA in his final 115 frames. Last winter’s low-cost dice roll on KBO breakout Chris Flexen was an overwhelming success, as Flexen turned in a 3.61 ERA over 179 2/3 innings. Top prospect Logan Gilbert had a rough patch in the middle of the season but was dominant down the stretch, pitching to a 2.70 ERA over his final six starts. With a 4.68 ERA overall and terrific strikeout and walk rates, he earned a spot in 2022.

After that trio, there’s not as much certainty. Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn were notable acquisitions during the rebuild but might be looking at bullpen roles in the future, given their struggles and a slate of impressive prospects yet to come. First-rounders George Kirby and Emerson Hancock are still on the rise, and 2019 second-rounder Brandon Williamson has only seen his stock soar since the draft. Matt Brash dominated in the minors and has likely already made the Padres regret parting with him in a trade to acquire Taylor Williams.

Even with all those prospects nearing the big leagues, the Mariners’ win-now mantra will push them to bring in some established veterans. With so much payroll space, there’s no reason to think the Mariners couldn’t ink one of the top pitchers on the market even after signing a free-agent bat. However, the safer bet may be to add some solid mid-rotation arms as opposed to the type of $100MM+ deals that could be commanded by Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman.

The market has plenty of options, including Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Steven Matz. If the Mariners are open to some risk, Carlos Rodon was one of the game’s best starters when healthy this season but ended the year with some concerning shoulder troubles. A team in Seattle’s spot could view Rodon’s late injury flags as a means of buying a possible No. 1 starter at a discount. The downside is obvious with a pitcher who managed just 36 innings in the final 10 weeks of the season and saw a rapid drop in his fastball velocity, but with so many prospects providing depth, perhaps the Mariners can take that chance.

This is the first time under Dipoto that the Mariners are likely to be more active in free agency than in trades, but there’s probably a limit to how much they’ll spend on the open market. With the need for a big bat and at least one — if not two — rotation spots open, the Mariners will surely explore that route. By now, it’s well known that names like Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Merrill Kelly and others could be available on the trade market.

That said, fans of other clubs dreaming up scenarios to acquire the likes of Rodriguez, Noelvi Marte, Kirby, Hancock and other Mariners top prospects may want to pump the brakes. Dipoto said at the GM Meetings last week that there’s “no scenario” where he’ll move the very top prospects in his organization (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). Seattle has Baseball America’s top-ranked farm system though, so there’s plenty of value even in the middle tiers that could be used in trades. It’s also plausible that a controllable player without a clear path to playing time (e.g. Trammell, Fraley) could be part of a package for immediate help — be it in the lineup, the rotation or the bullpen.

Of course, the Mariners’ need for relief pitching is less acute, especially if Sheffield and Dunn join this mix. Breakout righty Paul Sewald went from a struggling Mets depth piece to a powerhouse closing option who fanned nearly 40% of his 2021 opponents. The M’s struck gold on a minor league deal for Drew Steckenrider and picked up a big-time righty from the Rays at the deadline in Diego Castillo. Former All-Star Ken Giles will join that trio in 2022 when he returns from Tommy John surgery. Casey Sadler won’t repeat his ridiculous 0.67 ERA but has locked a spot down. Seattle also received promising showings from Erik Swanson and Yohan Ramirez, and they’ll have a full season of Andres Munoz and his triple-digit heater now that he’s back from Tommy John surgery.

If there’s one area the Mariners are lacking, it’s a lefty. A pursuit of Andrew Chafin or Aaron Loup seems sensible, and this is another area where a trade might make sense. The M’s could also look at Sheffield here and/or give Anthony Misiewicz a bigger look. Misiewicz’s 4.61 ERA isn’t eye-catching, but he had better marks from metrics like FIP and SIERA.

However the Mariners choose to attack the offseason, it’s unlikely to look like any we’ve previously seen since Dipoto took the reins in Seattle. He’s previously preferred to operate primarily on the trade market, but the Mariners have gotten to that sweet spot where their squeaky clean payroll outlook overlaps with an elite farm that is teeming with MLB-ready talent. The nexus of those two enviable characteristics should open the door for considerable spending this winter and perhaps another big swing on the trade front. The Mariners are veritable locks to add at least one impact bat (likely in the infield) and figure to be active in bolstering the rotation.

With the Athletics going into an obvious rebuild, the Rangers still working to emerge from their own building phase and the Astros perhaps bidding farewell to free agent Carlos Correa, the Mariners’ time is now. They know it, and so does the rest of the industry. It’s going to be a fun offseason for Seattle fans.

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