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Raisel Iglesias To Reject Qualifying Offer

By Steve Adams | November 17, 2021 at 2:32pm CDT

Closer Raisel Iglesias will reject the Angels’ one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He’s still free to negotiate with the Angels on a new contract, of course, but will continue to pursue a multi-year arrangement in free agency.

Raisel Iglesias | Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

That Iglesias would reject the qualifying offer comes as no surprise. The 31-year-old righty (32 in January) is coming off arguably the best season of his career and is the clear top reliever on this year’s market. MLBTR projected Iglesias to secure a four-year pact worth $56MM on our recent ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and a strong three-year deal, at minimum, seems quite likely even with draft compensation now attached to the righty.

A look at virtually any relief pitching leaderboard will show Iglesias among the leaders in most key numbers. The former Reds stopper finished eighth among 144 qualified relievers with a 37.7% strikeout rate and also posted the ninth-best walk rate at 4.4%. Only two qualified relievers, Josh Hader and Liam Hendriks, topped Iglesias’ huge 33.3 K-BB%. Beyond that, Iglesias’ 20.6% swinging-strike rate trailed only Hader, and his 2.06 SIERA was second only to Hendriks. No reliever in baseball posted a better swinging-plus-called-strike rate than Iglesias’ 36.8% mark.

Statcast finds Igleisas similarly dominant, rating him in the 85th percentile or better in terms of hard-hit percentage, average exit velocity and expected opponents’ batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

In terms of more traditional numbers, Iglesias tied for the fourth-most saves in Major League Baseball at 34 and finished 23rd among relievers with 70 innings pitched. That’s due largely to the Halos using him as a one-inning option, but Iglesias showed during his time with Cincinnati that he’s plenty capable of recording four-, five- and six-out saves when needed. His 2.57 ERA ranked “only” 29th among 144 qualified relievers, but as evidenced by the aforementioned SIERA, most fielding-independent marks feel he was better than that baseline ERA.

Simply put, Iglesias is a workhorse reliever who misses bats and limits walks at levels that place him alongside elite names like Hader and Hendriks. He’s appeared in at least 65 games and tallied at least 67 innings in each of his four full seasons as a reliever, dating back to 2017. Iglesias had a pair of month-long stays on the injured list due to minor shoulder troubles back in 2015-16, when the Reds were still debating whether he fit best as a starter or reliever, but since moving to the ’pen full time, he’s had only a single 10-day stint on the IL for a minor biceps issue.

If there’s one flaw in Iglesias’ game, it’s the occasional home run. His average of 1.41 homers per nine frames this year was surely higher than the Angels would’ve hoped, but his minuscule walk rate and paltry .207 opponents’ batting average and .243 opponents’ OBP meant that the majority of those round-trippers came with the bases empty. It’s not exactly a career-long issue, either, as Iglesias yielded just one homer in 23 frames during the shortened 2020 season (0.39 HR/9) and has averaged a more manageable 1.10 homers per nine innings in his seven-year MLB career.

Iglesias is the only reliever on this year’s market to receive a qualifying offer, but he’s superior enough in terms of age, track record and strikeout-to-walk profile that it shouldn’t prove to be a major hindrance to his market. Kenley Jansen, Kendall Graveman and Corey Knebel are among the names in the next tier, but Iglesias should be a lock to score the biggest contract of any relief pitcher this offseason.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

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Los Angeles Angels Newsstand Raisel Iglesias

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Marlins Add Marcus Thames, Al Pedrique To Coaching Staff

By Steve Adams | November 17, 2021 at 2:12pm CDT

2:12pm: The Marlins have formally announced the hiring of Thames as their new hitting coach and Pedrique as third base/infield coach. Duncan will assume the role of quality assurance coach.

Additionally, the Marlins have promoted minor league hitting coordinator Edwar Gonzalez to the Major League staff. He’ll serve as the assistant hitting coach to Thames. Gonzalez, like Thames and Pedrique, has a lengthy history in the Yankees organization, where he spent nine seasons — including three as a minor league hitting coach.

1:44pm: Eric Duncan, who’s spent the past two seasons as the Marlins’ hitting coach, will remain on the 2022 staff, Mish tweets. It’s not clear yet what role he’ll be in, though it’s become increasingly popular for teams to employ co-hitting coaches.

1:37pm: The Marlins are set to announce the hiring of Marcus Thames as their new hitting coach, Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reports (via Twitter). Meanwhile, Daniel Alvarez of El Extra Base adds that Triple-A Jacksonville manager Al Pedrique will join the Marlins’ big league staff as their new third base and infield coach.

Thames, 44, is a former big league outfielder who spent the 2018-21 seasons as the Yankees’ hitting coach. He’d spent the 2014-17 seasons serving as a hitting coach in the Yankees’ minor league ranks as well, but the team informed at season’s end that he would not return fifth year.

Even beyond CEO Derek Jeter, the Marlins have plenty of ties to the Yankees organization, so it’s not necessarily a shock to see Thames land on his feet in South Florida. Marlins vice president of player development and scouting Gary Denbo, a key executive in their baseball ops hierarchy, was hired out of the Yankees organization by Jeter’s incoming ownership group after several years in a similar role in the Bronx. Miami also hired assistant GM Dan Greenlee away from the Yankees not long after adding Denbo.

The 61-year-old Pedrique is a baseball lifer who spent parts of the 1987-89 seasons in the Majors as an infielder and has now spent two decades as a coach and manager in the minor leagues and big leagues alike. Pedrique had a brief stint as the D-backs’ manager in 2004 and has also spent time on the Major League staffs with the Astros and A’s. Pedrique has ties to the Yankees organization himself, as he managed at four different minor league levels in their system during a period that overlapped with Denbo’s Yankees tenure.

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Miami Marlins Al Pedrique Marcus Thames

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | November 17, 2021 at 2:07pm CDT

Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.

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MLBTR Chats

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Latest On Justin Verlander’s Market

By Steve Adams | November 17, 2021 at 1:47pm CDT

1:47pm: The White Sox are also showing “strong” interest in Verlander, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. They’re planning an “aggressive” offseason, per Nightengale, and hoping to kick things off with a successful courtship of Verlander. Of course, the South Siders’ spring facility is in Arizona, which isn’t ideal based on Verlander’s reported preferences, but that certainly doesn’t rule them out of the bidding entirely.

12:58pm: Verlander has both multi-year and one-year offers in hand, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), adding that the right-hander could make a final decision as soon as this week.

11:47am: The Braves are also among the teams with interest in Verlander, tweets David O’Brien of The Athletic. Atlanta would align well with Verlander’s reported preference for an East Coast club with Spring Training in Florida, and their status as reigning World Series champions obviously helps when pursuing any older veteran prioritizing a contender. Of course, all those players inked sizable one-year deals, whereas Verlander may be seeking multiple guaranteed seasons.

The Braves had had few qualms about signing short-term veterans of this nature under under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos — evidenced by recent short-term pickups of Cole Hamels, Charlie Morton and Josh Donaldson.

10:46am: Justin Verlander has until 5pm ET today to accept or reject a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer (as do all other free agents who received a QO), but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject and fully explore his options. That’s due in part to Astros owner Jim Crane saying last month that Verlander will be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, but it’s also due to what’s reported to be strong early interest in the future Hall of Famer.

Verlander held a showcase for teams earlier this month — a step that would seem unlikely were he simply planning to accept the Astros’ QO — and his reps at ISE Baseball have had the past 10 days to gauge interest from other clubs. Ken Rosenthal suggested on MLB Network this morning (video link) that early indications are Verlander would prefer to sign with a club that holds Spring Training in Florida, which meshes with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that several interested teams believe Verlander prefers to play with an East Coast club.

Notably, Sherman adds that both the Red Sox and Blue Jays — each of whom hold Spring Training in Florida — made “aggressive” offers to another high-upside, short-term pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery: Noah Syndergaard. Peter Gammons tweeted yesterday that Syndergaard had multiple offers at or near the $21MM price point for which he agreed to join the Angels, including one approaching $25MM in value. It’s not expressly clear that the Jays or Red Sox offered $21MM+ for Syndergaard, but it’s notable that both teams were aggressive on a fellow Tommy John reclamation play.

Verlander has drawn interest from both Toronto and Boston, per Sherman, who adds that the Yankees seem fairly serious with their interest in the 39-year-old. Verlander, somewhat notably, held his recent showcase at Cressey Sports Performance — the Florida-based training facility operated by Yankees director of player health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber did the same last offseason before ultimately agreeing to a deal with the Yankees. As noted at the time of the showcase, the location of Verlander’s audition alone doesn’t tip the scale in the Yankees’ favor, but it shouldn’t be completely overlooked, either.

Geographical preference notwithstanding, the best offer is likely to win the bidding for Verlander at the end of the day. It’s unlikely he’d leave an extra year or tens of millions of dollars on the table to spurn a West Coast team to sign in New York, Boston or Toronto. Factors like geography, Spring Training locale and familiarity with teammates (e.g. Gerrit Cole in the Bronx, George Springer in Toronto) are often, albeit not always, more tiebreakers when weighing comparable offers.

Tigers fans, of course, undoubtedly would love to see a reunion in Detroit and are surely heartened to see Verlander’s preference for Florida-based Spring Training outfits. However, Rosenthal also suggests that the Tigers may not be “in as heavily” as other interested clubs.

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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays Justin Verlander Noah Syndergaard

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Ryan Zimmerman Leaning Toward Playing In 2022

By Steve Adams | November 17, 2021 at 12:43pm CDT

Ryan Zimmerman has only known one team throughout his 16-year Major League career. “Mr. National” was selected with the fourth overall pick by the Nats back in the 2005 draft, and it seems he’s leaning toward a 17th season in D.C.

“I still definitely am planning on playing [in 2022],” Zimmerman said in an appearance on 106.7 FM The Fan this morning (Twitter link via Federal Baseball’s Blake Finney), “but we’ll see what happens. No decisions either way yet.”

The latter half of Zimmerman’s quote leaves open the possibility that he’ll still ultimately opt for retirement on the heels of an outstanding career, but Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has already made clear that’s entirely Zimmerman’s call. Rizzo said plainly at season’s end that so long as he is GM, Zimmerman “has a place on this roster,” before going on to add: “…[W]henever he wants to take a major league contract, just call me up and we’ll give him one.”

Zimmerman, who turned 37 in September, has been a clubhouse leader for the Nationals throughout his time with the organization, serving as the face of the franchise through some ugly building seasons and ultimately emerging as a World Series champion with the Nats in 2019. A former Rookie of the Year runner-up, two-time Silver Slugger, Gold Glove winner and two-time All-Star, Zimmerman appeared in 110 games with the Nationals this past season and slashed .243/.286/.471 with 14 home runs and 16 doubles in 273 plate appearances.

Though not the feared middle-of-the-order hitter he once was, Zimmerman still torched lefties in 2021, hitting at a .291/.319/.582 clip with seven homers and 11 doubles in just 116 plate appearances against them. Returning for a 17th big league season would afford him the opportunity to chase down a few milestones as well; he’s just 16 homers shy of 300 for his career and would likely score his 1000th run in 2022 if he returns. Depending on how many years he feels are left in the tank, Zimmerman could also pursue the 2000-hit marker. He’s unlikely to get there as a part-time player in ’22, as he’s currently 154 knocks shy, but if he feels there are two seasons left in his bat it’s certainly possible.

Based on Rizzo’s comments, Zimmerman’s value to the franchise extends well beyond his on-field production. And, given that the 2022 season could represent something of a step back as the Nats evaluate younger players on the heels of a trade-deadline fire sale, it’d be easier (and arguably more valuable) for them to carry a revered veteran like Zimmerman. Washington will likely be considered a long shot (at best) to contend next year, and the Nats surely wouldn’t mind at least a year of Zimmerman’s influence and mentorship for the organization’s next generation of talent.

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Washington Nationals Ryan Zimmerman

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Mariners Rumors: Story, Chapman, Suzuki, Rotation

By Steve Adams | November 17, 2021 at 9:25am CDT

The Mariners are known to be in the market for infield upgrades, with both Kris Bryant and Marcus Semien among their early targets. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds a few names to the pile, reporting that they’re also intrigued by the possibility of signing Trevor Story to play second base on a regular basis. Divish also indicates that the Mariners have high levels of interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman and several of Oakland’s available pitchers, including Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt.

Beyond that group, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Dick Fain of SportsRadio 950 KJR this week that the Mariners would be interested in star outfielder Seiya Suzuki if and when he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball (Twitter link). The Carp do plan to post Suzuki, but that process has not yet officially begun.

Dipoto has already made clear in the young offseason that his team will be more aggressive in free agency than in years past and given at least some indications as to the types of players he’ll target. He spoke earlier this month of a desire to sign “adaptable” free agents, naming both Semien and Javier Baez as players who’ve shown a willingness to move around the diamond. He’s also made it clear to J.P. Crawford that he’ll play shortstop in Seattle both next year and in the long term, which could well take the Mariners out of the running for any of the market’s top free agents who are set on remaining at that position.

[Related: Seattle Mariners’ Offseason Outlook]

While Story has been entrenched at shortstop in Colorado, he could certainly help his market if he shows a willingness to play another position. He’s typically been a plus defender at short, of course, but that only makes it likelier that he’d be a high-quality defender on the other side of the bag. Openness to playing elsewhere shouldn’t be a necessity, but given that Story had something of a down season by his standards, an open-minded outlook ought to broaden his appeal.

Unlike Story, there’d be no position change for Chapman in virtually any scenario. His elite defense at third base is perhaps the most appealing element of his overall game, and the Mariners have an obvious opening at the hot corner after declining Kyle Seager’s $20MM option. Chapman’s strikeout rate has soared and his batting average has dropped since a 2020 hip injury that required surgery, but he still draws plenty of walks and hits with power.

Chapman is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM in 2022 and is controlled another two seasons. He could draw interest from around a third of the league, if not more, so the Mariners will hardly be alone in any potential pursuit. Attempting to expand talks to include one of the Athletics’ starters would only ramp up the price, and such a package may not be realistic if Dipoto’s comments about refusing to trade from the very top end of his prospect capital hold true (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). “There’s no scenario where we will move the top prospects in our system, the guys who are prominent in our system,” Dipoto said at the GM Meetings just nine days ago.

Turning to the 27-year-old Suzuki, he’d be something of an odd fit — at least from a defensive standpoint. While Suzuki briefly played some third base early in his career, he’s settled in as a quality right fielder, winning four Gold Gloves at that position in Japan. The general consensus MLBTR received when speaking to MLB scouts and evaluators familiar with Suzuki was that he can be a well-rounded, everyday right fielder in the Majors but isn’t really an option in the infield, for defensive reasons.

The Mariners already have numerous outfield options, including Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell and yet-to-debut top prospect Julio Rodriguez. Not all are proven at the MLB level, of course, but winning the bidding on Suzuki would register as something of a surprise because of that depth — even with some DH at-bats available to help rotate four or five players through the outfield.

Perhaps the Mariners are more convinced Suzuki could move back to the infield on at least a part-time basis, or perhaps they simply believe his looming availability represents a unique opportunity to acquire an impact bat. (Suzuki, after all, has a .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples dating back to 2018.) Regardless, Dipoto’s comment on the matter can’t be wholly ignored, even if the M’s seem an unlikely candidate to win the bidding when other interested parties have a more acute outfield need.

As for the reported interest in Oakland’s trio of available starting pitchers, it’s a good reminder that while there’s been a high level of focus on the Mariners’ quest to add at least one prominent bat to the lineup, they’ll also be in the market for one, if not two starting pitchers. The previously mentioned unwillingness to deal from the top of the system could make it tough to obtain a package of Chapman and a starting pitcher, but both Manaea and Bassitt would be one-year rentals, so acquiring either pitcher individually may not come with such a steep ask.

Whatever route they take, it’s increasingly evident that the Mariners are casting a very wide net as they look to end a two-decade playoff drought.

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Oakland Athletics Seattle Mariners Chris Bassitt Frankie Montas Matt Chapman Sean Manaea Seiya Suzuki Trevor Story

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Angels Designate Junior Guerra For Assignment

By Anthony Franco | November 16, 2021 at 10:57pm CDT

The Angels announced they’ve designated reliever Junior Guerra for assignment. The move opens a spot on the 40-man roster for the recently-signed Noah Syndergaard.

Guerra had been eligible for arbitration. Had the Angels tendered him a contract, he’d have been in line for a salary in the $1.3MM range, in the estimation of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Coming off a disappointing 2021 campaign, Guerra looked like a non-tender candidate. Today’s designation will indeed function as something of an early non-tender, as he’ll be eligible for minor league free agency if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

From 2016-19, Guerra had a generally solid run as a swingman with the Brewers. He’s scuffled over the past couple seasons since leaving Milwaukee, though. While Guerra posted a solid 3.04 ERA over 23 2/3 frames with the D-Backs in 2020, his peripherals were less impressive. Arizona released him after the season, and the Angels signed the veteran to a minor league deal in January.

Guerra cracked the season-opening roster and spent the entire year in Anaheim, but he didn’t fare particularly well. The 36-year-old pitched to a career-worst 6.06 ERA over 65 1/3 innings of long relief. That came with a subpar 19.9% strikeout percentage and a far too high 15% walk rate, Guerra’s third consecutive season issuing free passes to more than 10% of opposing hitters.

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Los Angeles Angels Transactions Junior Guerra

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Rockies Notes: Shortstop, McMahon, Free Agency, Marquez

By Anthony Franco | November 16, 2021 at 10:35pm CDT

With Trevor Story set to decline the qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract elsewhere, the Rockies enter the offseason with a question mark at shortstop for the first time in years. Among the options under consideration: moving third baseman Ryan McMahon up the defensive spectrum to short, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.

“(Moving McMahon) is something we have discussed,” Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt told Saunders. “Ryan has good range and that’s something we saw last year when he played third base with the shift on.” While McMahon told Saunders he’d yet to hear anything from the organization about that possibility, he sounded amenable to the idea. “I’d like to think that I could work at any (position) and become at least a solid defender there,” the 26-year-old said.

Kicking McMahon over to shortstop on a regular basis would be quite the risk. Not only has he never started a game there in the major leagues, he’s logged all of three innings at the position in his professional career. The California native moved from shortstop to third base in high school, and he’s bounced between the hot corner, second base and first base as a pro.

As Schmidt suggested, though, McMahon’s coming off an excellent defensive season at multiple spots on the diamond. Defensive Runs Saved estimated he was twelve runs above average over 848 2/3 innings at third base (a position at which he was a Gold Glove finalist) and pegged him as an incredible nine runs better than average in just 368 1/3 frames at second base. Statcast credited him with twelve Outs Above Average between the two positions, a mark that tied for tenth among infielders league-wide.

Were the Rockies to address the position internally, it seems McMahon is likelier to shoulder it than Brendan Rodgers. While Rodgers came up as a shortstop prospect, he’s spent the bulk of his time at second base in recent seasons. That was primarily in deference to Story, but Schmidt reiterated when speaking with Saunders that the club would prefer to keep Rodgers at the keystone.

Of course, the Rox aren’t foreclosing the possibility of addressing shortstop from outside the organization. Schmidt told Saunders the front office is exploring the free agent market. A full-fledged pursuit at one of the market’s top shortstops seems unlikely, but the club could pursue a shorter-term agreement with a player like Andrelton Simmons or Freddy Galvis to at least stabilize the defense.

While a run at one of the top shortstops probably won’t be in the cards, the Rockies have been expected to target a power-hitting outfielder over the coming months. Schmidt confirmed when speaking with Nick Groke of the Athletic the front office sees an addition in the grass as the “best place” for a meaningful upgrade to the lineup. Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor, Avisaíl García, Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto are among a fairly strong group of free agent outfielders available.

Signing Taylor or Conforto — both of whom rejected qualifying offers from their previous clubs — would cost the Rockies their third-highest pick in the 2022 draft. With the Rockies facing an uphill battle to compete in a loaded NL West next year, there’s a case that Colorado should prioritize future draft considerations over nearer-term adds.

Schmidt isn’t ruling out a run at a qualified free agent, though, telling Groke he’d be open to surrendering draft compensation in the right scenario. “You have to take it case by case and explore your options,” the veteran executive said. “You can’t blanket say, ‘There’s a draft pick compensation, we’re out.’ You have to consider who the player is, what the acquisition cost is, and what are your alternatives.”

Schmidt’s win-now attitude is the latest reaffirmation that Colorado brass doesn’t view themselves being far from contention. It’s unsurprising given that stance that the Rockies aren’t expected to trade staff ace Germán Márquez this offseason, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While Colorado could surely bring back a massive haul for a talented, controllable rotation building block like Márquez, they seemingly gave very little consideration to moving the 26-year-old at this past summer’s trade deadline. Instead, it seems the right-hander will be back for his third consecutive Opening Day start in purple and black.

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Colorado Rockies German Marquez Ryan McMahon

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Angels Sign Noah Syndergaard

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2021 at 9:31pm CDT

The first of what Angels fans hope will be multiple rotation additions is in the books, as the Halos announced a one-year agreement with free-agent righty Noah Syndergaard. The 29-year-old will reportedly collect a $21MM salary in 2022 before re-testing the free agent market next offseason.

Syndergaard received an $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Mets last week, and his agreement with the Angels effectively amounts to rejecting that offer. As such, the Angels will forfeit their second-highest selection in next year’s draft. The Mets, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory draft pick after the completion of Competitive Balance Round B (typically in the No. 75 overall range).

Noah Syndergaard | Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Syndergaard has scarcely pitched since the completion of the 2019 season thanks to 2020 Tommy John surgery and a series of setbacks in his recovery this year. He did make it back to the mound for two innings of bullpen work with the Mets late in the 2021 campaign, at least demonstrating that he was healthy enough to pitch in a big league game.

The general hope had been that he’d be recovered from surgery and rejoin the Mets’ rotation around June, but Syndergaard’s recovery was shut down on May 27 due to inflammation in his surgically repaired elbow. He resumed throwing about six weeks later but was again set back — this time by a positive Covid-19 test.

When healthy, Syndergaard has proven to be one of the more dynamic pitchers in the game. The 6’6″, 242-pound righty is one of the more physically imposing pitchers in MLB and, at his peak, boasted the velocity to match that frame. Syndergaard averaged a blistering 98.1 mph on his heater from 2015-19, pitching to a combined 3.31 ERA and 3.37 SIERA along the way. The big righty finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in ’15 and finished eighth in Cy Young voting during an All-Star 2016 season.

At his best, Syndergaard combines that elite velocity with high-end strikeout rates and plus walk rates. He’s fanned a hearty 26.4% of career opponents against just a 5.6% walk rate — including a career-best 29.3% strikeout rate in that All-Star 2016 season. Syndergaard has never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season, and he’s also kept the ball on the ground at an above-average 49% clip in 718 career innings.

It’s that lack of innings, of course, that is the primary red flag on Syndergaard at present. In addition to the 2020 Tommy John surgery and series of 2021 setbacks, Syndergaard was limited to just seven starts in 2017, owing to a torn lat muscle. He also missed time in 2018 due to some ligament damage in his pitching hand.

With that context in mind, Syndergaard falls in line with some recent rotation additions by the Angels: high-upside, high-risk arms on a one-year deal (e.g. Matt Harvey, Julio Teheran). That comes in spite of a new general manager — Perry Minasian replaced Billy Eppler to begin the 2020-21 offseason — though one would imagine that this is the first of multiple pieces Minasian and his staff will add this winter. It remains possible that the Angels will add a starter on a multi-year deal. Still, the Angels have had longstanding rotation issues but nevertheless repeatedly eschewed long-term deals for pitchers, suggesting at least some aversion to such deals on owner Arte Moreno’s behalf.

To be fair, none of the short-term rotation additions the Angels have made in recent years carry the same upside as Syndergaard on a one-year contract. Minasian has vowed to “significantly” improve his team’s starting staff in 2022, and a healthy Syndergaard would be a clear step in that direction. He’ll join Shohei Ohtani atop the rotation for the time being, but that duo would require greater workload management than most top-of-the-rotation pairs throughout the league. As such, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Angels also target some more reliable bulk innings with their next addition — be it on the free-agent market or via the trade market.

Beyond Ohtani and Syndergaard, the Angels have plenty of promising arms but little in the way of established MLB hurlers. Young lefties Patrick Sandoval and Jose Suarez both showed well in 2021 but tallied fewer than 100 frames apiece. Fellow southpaw Reid Detmers was a first-round pick in 2020 and is viewed as one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, but he was hit hard in his 2021 MLB debut. Former top prospect Griffin Canning ought to get another look after some injuries and struggles have deflated his stock, and righty Jaime Barria gives the Angels a solid back-of-the-rotation option as well.

With a return to form by Syndergaard and another healthy season of Ohtani, it’s easy to see this staff being the best the Angels have had in recent memory. At the same time, that’s a lot to bank on. Given the injury risk strewn throughout this group and the general attrition rate of young pitchers, it’s equally plausible that the Angels could again find themselves scrambling to piece things together. Syndergaard is quite arguably as great an upside play as there is on this offseason’s market, but the Angels still have some heavy lifting to do on the rotation front if they hope to finally piece together the reliable staff that has eluded them in recent years.

The Syndergaard signing gives the Angels six guaranteed contracts on next year’s books, totaling a hefty $129.95MM just among that group. A small arbitration class works in their favor and brings the team’s projected payroll into the $150MM range, however, even after accounting for a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster. That should leave room for at least one more significant addition on the starting staff (perhaps two, if one comes via trade).

As for the Mets, the loss of Syndergaard and the potential loss of fellow free agent Marcus Stroman — another reported Angels target — leaves them with ample questions in their own rotation. Jacob deGrom is the game’s best pitcher but missed significant time due to injury in 2021. Carlos Carrasco’s brief Mets tenure has been punctuated by injury troubles, and Taijuan Walker wilted after a terrific first half. The Mets have younger options in the rotation themselves (e.g. David Peterson, Tylor Megill), but they’ll surely be on the hunt for upgrades after being spurned by Syndergaard.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the sides were nearing agreement on a contract. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the sides had agreed on a one-year, $21MM deal.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

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Los Angeles Angels New York Mets Newsstand Transactions Noah Syndergaard

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Twins Continuing To Explore Trade, Extension Scenarios With Byron Buxton

By Anthony Franco | November 16, 2021 at 9:12pm CDT

The lead-up to this past trade deadline for the Twins was highlighted by questions about Byron Buxton’s future in the organization. Minnesota discussed a long-term extension with his representatives at Jet Sports Management, but the club’s reported offer of an $80MM guarantee wasn’t enough to get a deal done. The Twins also fielded inquiries about Buxton’s availability in trade, but they ultimately elected to hold onto the star center fielder for the remainder of the season.

With Buxton now set to enter his final year of club control, the Twins are again faced with the question of how to proceed. The front office continues to explore both the possibility of a Buxton trade or renewed efforts at an extension, write Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While the club has remained in contact with Buxton’s camp this offseason, there’s been no progress yet on a deal. The sticking point in extension talks this summer, according to Hayes and Rosenthal, was the front office’s unwillingness to include incentives that could push Buxton’s earning potential around $100MM. Whether that’s still the holdup in talks isn’t clear.

The lack of progress on an extension could point towards a trade being a likelier outcome, but the Athletic writes that Minnesota chairman Jim Pohlad is hesitant to sign off on moving Buxton elsewhere. This summer, Pohlad forcefully pushed back against the notion of the Twins kicking off a long-term rebuild. Between Minnesota’s internal group of talented position players and ample payroll flexibility that should enable the front office to add multiple starting pitchers this winter, a return to competitiveness next season wouldn’t seem to be out of the question. That all adds up to a challenging decision on how the organization should proceed with Buxton, who is one of the game’s most electrifying talents when healthy.

The sport’s former top prospect, Buxton has demonstrated that upside when able to take the field. He’s perhaps the game’s best defensive outfielder, a former Gold Glove winner who has twice appeared on MVP ballots. And Buxton is coming off an equally remarkable offensive showing, hitting .306/.358/.647 with 19 homers and nine steals over 254 plate appearances in 2021. Among players with 250+ plate appearances, only Bryce Harper outhit Buxton by measure of wRC+.

Of course, the health caveat is an important one. Buxton has only once topped 500 plate appearances in a given year (511 in 2017). The 27-year-old landed on the injured list on two separate occasions this past season, losing six weeks to a right hip strain suffered while trying to beat out a ground ball and missing two months after fracturing his left hand on a hit-by-pitch. Buxton has also missed time with left shoulder, right wrist and concussion issues just within the past three years.

While the Twins are keeping all their options open, the team doesn’t have to pick an absolute course of action this winter. Just as they did over the summer, Minnesota could elect to simply hang onto Buxton into 2022. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a salary in the $7.3MM range in his final year of arbitration. The Twins could enter the 2022 season with Buxton on the roster and reevaluate their long-term options depending on the team’s performance and Buxton’s health over the first half.

That’s obviously a risky course of action itself. There’s always the looming possibility Buxton suffers another injury. Even if he stays healthy and productive, the team might not rebound as hoped. In that instance, the club would be left marketing just a few months of Buxton’s services at next summer’s trade deadline, where their return would likely be inferior to what they could pull in from clubs this winter.

Appropriately valuing a player with Buxton’s combination of raw talent, huge production and lengthy injury history is certainly a challenge — for each of the Twins’ front office, the player’s reps and other teams exploring the possibility of a blockbuster trade. That’s made all the more true by Minnesota’s atypical competitive situation, coming off a last place finish but with a clear desire to compete in 2022. That confluence of factors means Buxton’s future could be one of the bigger storylines of the upcoming winter, even though there’s no guarantee of any sort of resolution this offseason at all.

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