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Yasiel Puig Looking To Return To Majors In 2021

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8:54pm: Puig is already generating MLB interest, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, who writes that “the Astros, Orioles and Red Sox are among the teams that have Puig on their radar.”

3:53pm: After a season out of baseball, free-agent outfielder Yasiel Puig has hired Rachel Luba as his new agent, Luba announced on Twitter. That suggests Puig is looking to return to the pro ranks in 2021.

The past year has not gone according to plan for Puig, who was a fairly hyped free agent last offseason. Puig was unable to reach a deal until he finally agreed to a contract with the Braves in the middle of July, but that pact fell apart almost immediately. The soon-to-be 30-year-old tested positive for COVID-19 just a couple of days after the Braves deal, which caused the team to call off the signing. For the most part, it has been radio silence on Puig since then.

Last time he took the field, in 2019, Puig batted .267/.327/.458 (101 wRC+) with 24 home runs and 19 stolen bases over 611 plate appearances between the Reds and Indians. While his counting stats were solid, it was still a relatively disappointing year for a player who has typically been a well-above-average hitter throughout his career. Also a former Dodger, Puig has slashed .277/.348/.475 (124 wRC+) during his major league tenure. The hope for Puig is that he’ll return to that form if he does get back to the bigs in 2021. For now, he’s one of the most established and recognizable outfielders on the open market.

Latest On Cardinals’ Rotation

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The Cardinals are dealing with some questions in their rotation at the moment, but they have not actively pursued starters in free agency, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. Franchise icon Adam Wainwright is the only starter they’ve gone after with much aggression, according to Goold.

The Cardinals’ rotation took a major hit when right-hander Dakota Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery in late September. He won’t pitch at all next year as a result, while Wainwright is no sure thing to return to the team for his age-39 season. Despite his age, Wainwright remains an above-average major league hurler. The career-long Cardinal is fresh off a year in which he recorded a 3.15 ERA/4.11 FIP with 7.4 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 over 65 2/3 innings. It’s no surprise the Cardinals want him back, then.

With Hudson unavailable and Wainwright off the roster at the moment, Jack Flaherty, Carlos Martinez, Kwang Hyun Kim, Miles Mikolas, Austin Gomber, Daniel Ponce de Leon and Johan Oviedo are among their starting options for next season. St. Louis went all of 2020 without Mikolas, a quality starter from 2018-19 who missed this year because of July surgery on his right flexor tendon. His return should prove beneficial next year, but it still seems the Cardinals would be well-served to re-sign Wainwright and/or address their rotation in other ways this offseason.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins’ unfathomable postseason losing streak stretched to 18 games when they fell to the Astros during a Wild Card sweep. It’s back to the drawing board for chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine as they look to secure a third straight division title and finally dispel the postseason curse.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $71MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option)
  • Miguel Sano, 1B: $23MM through 2022 (includes buyout of 2023 option)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $22.75MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option)
  • Jorge Polanco, SS: $17.833MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option; contract also contains 2025  option)
  • Michael Pineda, RHP: $10MM through 2021
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $9MM through 2023 (contract contains $3MM annual base with up to $10.15MM of annual incentives)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Declined $5MM club option on RHP Sergio Romo (paid $250K buyout)

Free Agents

The Twins put together more-than-competitive rosters in 2019-20, shining in the regular season before continuing their inexplicable postseason drought. The good news for Minnesota fans is that the core group remains largely in place beyond the 2020 season.

Nelson Cruz is the most notable exception, as the 40-year-old slugger will head back to the open market this winter — reportedly in search of a two-year deal. It’s hard to blame Cruz for seeking that guarantee if he’s intent on playing through his 42nd birthday; he’s been an absolute monster in his two years with the Twins, slashing a combined .308/.394/.626 with 57 home runs in 173 games.

If the Twins were willing to meet that two-year term, I imagine this deal would’ve already come together. That’s not to say the two sides won’t eventually get there, but it might require some market pressure to move the team’s urgency. Absent the implementation of a permanent designated hitter in the National League, it’s not clear such pressure will exist. Most contending clubs throughout the American League have their DH at-bats largely spoken for.

Cruz seems willing to wait until there’s clarity on an NL DH (or lack thereof); the Twins could wait along with him or more proactively pursue a replacement. Marcell Ozuna could slide right into that DH spot and see occasional time in the outfield corners. The same is true of Michael Brantley, who has an obvious connection to the Twins in the form of Falvey, who was a former assistant GM with the Indians when Brantley played in Cleveland. Ditto Carlos Santana, who could start at first base and push Miguel Sano to DH, giving the Twins a defensive upgrade.

After Cruz, the biggest question is what to do with left fielder Eddie Rosario. The 29-year-old upped his walk rate to a career-high 8.2 percent in 2020 after years of criticism over his free-swinging approach, and he did so while maintaining above-average power (.219 ISO) and a low strikeout rate (14.7 percent).

One year of Rosario at somewhere in the $9-11MM vicinity is a perfectly reasonable price, but the Twins have a pair of near-MLB-ready top 100 prospects who happen to call the corner outfield their home: Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. Left field/first base prospect Brent Rooker also made his MLB debut in 2020 and hit quite well before a broken forearm ended his season. The Twins thought so highly of Kirilloff that they not only carried him on the postseason roster but allowed him to make his MLB debut as the starting right fielder in an elimination game. Kirilloff has at times ranked inside baseball’s 10 best overall prospects and is still widely considered in the top 25 to 50.

Given leaguewide revenue losses and the fact that Rosario will earn about 17 times as much as Kirilloff in 2021, it’s not a surprise that Rosario has been mentioned both as a trade candidate and a non-tender candidate. He’d be among the better players we’ve seen non-tendered in recent years, but it’s fair to wonder whether another club would take on his salary and surrender anything in return in a climate that saw Indians closer Brad Hand go unclaimed on waivers when he could’ve been claimed at $10MM. I wrote about Rosario’s trade candidacy back in April and again more recently for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, noting that there are some on-paper fits who could at least be intrigued by Rosario on a short-term commitment — the Nationals and Astros chief among them.

Outside of Cruz and Rosario/Kirilloff, the lineup is largely set — although there’s still room to be creative. Byron Buxton and Max Kepler should reprise their roles as center fielder and right fielder, barring a surprise trade of Kepler and his team-friendly contract. Who will seize the bulk of the time behind the plate isn’t certain, but both Mitch Garver (2019) and the younger Ryan Jeffers (2020) have turned in impressive seasons at the plate recently. Catcher isn’t likely to be a top priority outside of a potential depth add on a minor league deal. One could argue that the club should pursue J.T. Realmuto and make Jeffers/Garver available in trade, but that’s a reach.

So where’s the best spot to great “creative,” then? The middle infield — shortstop in particular — seems to present an opportunity. The Indians aren’t going to ship Francisco Lindor to their top division rival, but the free-agent market still has some quality options available. Polanco is a fine incumbent when healthy, but he’s undergone two ankle surgeries since signing his extension and was never a great defensive shortstop in the first place.

A pursuit of Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius or Andrelton Simmons could allow the Twins to shift one of Polanco or Luis Arraez into the super-utility role that has been vacated by Marwin Gonzalez’s free-agent departure. The other could get regular reps as the everyday second baseman. If the plan is to keep Polanco at shortstop, the Twins could pursue Kolten Wong and install a marked defensive upgrade while still deploying Arraez in that heavily used utility role.

Middle infield isn’t a “need” for this Twins team, but that was also true of third base last year when the club nevertheless won the bidding on Josh Donaldson, recognizing an opportunity to add a potent bat and upgrade the defense in one fell swoop. The shortstop market this winter looks somewhat similar to last year’s third base market in that there are a few clubs with notable holes — Reds, Phillies, Angels — but still a limited enough number that the Twins could jump the market if they strongly feel Semien or Gregorius would be an upgrade. At minimum, the Twins will likely add a shortstop-capable utilityman with backup options Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza now free agents.

As for the pitching staff, the rotation doesn’t look to be as glaring a need as it did this time last year. The Twins will return Cy Young finalist Kenta Maeda as well as righties Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda. In-house options Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer create options at the fourth and fifth spots, and the club has top 100 prospects Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic not far from the Majors.

It still seems likely the Twins will add at least one veteran to this mix, and you could argue that anyone from Trevor Bauer all the way to a steady fourth/fifth starter like Mike Fiers would make sense. Bauer is another player connected to Falvey from his time with the Indians, and Twins bench coach Mike Bell was the D-backs’ farm director when Arizona drafted Bauer with the No. 3 pick.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Twins would outbid the field to sign Bauer, but they could technically have the payroll space to do it — especially if Rosario departs. Subtracting Rosario would put 2021 payroll at about $90MM — a hefty $43MM shy of 2020’s pre-pandemic $133MM payroll. The Twins can at best be characterized as a dark horse in the Bauer market, but they’re a data- and tech-focused contender that has been willing to take on some risk, so they check plenty of Bauer’s boxes.

The Twins’ playoff rotation would look pretty suspect right now if one of Maeda, Berrios or Pineda went down, so it seems more sensible to add a fourth starter with a playoff-rotation ceiling than a run-of-the-mill innings eater. We put the Twins down as our pick for Corey Kluber on our Top 50 free agent list, but they’d make sense for anyone in that high-caliber reclamation bucket (e.g. James Paxton). A more straightforward Jake Odorizzi reunion would also work, and the trade market could again create some opportunities; Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray and Blake Snell are all already seeing their names circulate on the rumor mill. The Twins reportedly offered Darvish $100MM as a free agent, and they were interested in Gray when the Yankees initially shopped him two years ago.

The Twins’ current slate of losses in the bullpen are tough to overlook. Trevor May has quietly been a lights-out power arm for them, and the potential departures of Romo and Clippard eliminate two more quality setup men. Clippard proved vital in 2020, as the Twins used the changeup specialist as a big weapon against left-handed batters early in the year when they were still absent a lefty setup complement to southpaw Taylor Rogers.

Speaking of Rogers, he’s coming off something of a down season and will likely see his arbitration price tick north of $5MM, though it’s tough to imagine a non-tender of the 29-year-old. Rogers, breakout righty Tyler Duffey and slider-spamming waiver gem Matt Wisler figure to handle plenty of high-leverage spots moving forward, but it’d be a surprise if the Twins didn’t bring in a veteran or two.

Reunions with any of May, Romo or Clippard seem plausible, but with regard to May, it’s important to note that the most expensive free-agent contract the Twins have promised to a reliever was Addison Reed’s two-year, $16.75MM deal. The club spent big to keep incumbent closers Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins at one point, but this is not an organization that has been willing to commit high-dollar contracts to free-agent relievers. If May’s elite velocity and strikeout rates make him one of the market’s buzzier relievers, as we expect at MLBTR, he could price himself past a point at which we’ve seen this team spend for a reliever in an open-market setting.

The extent to which any club will spend this winter can’t be known, but owner Jim Pohlad’s comments have been less grim than some of his ownership counterparts around the game. The Twins were one of the few organizations in MLB not to make an aggressive wave of layoffs and were among the first to commit to paying minor leaguers the weekly $400 stipend through season’s end.

“The pandemic is hard on everybody, and we have to have some degree of compassion and empathy in that regard as how difficult it is on individuals,” Pohlad told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III after the season. “If we are able to continue to pay people, we want to do that. It is a cultural philosophy.”

Pohlad also acknowledged to Neal that he has not yet gotten over another early playoff exit, and Falvey gave a similar stance while talking of taking the team to the next level. Asked about a potential major free-agent splash, Pohlad was guarded but not completely dismissive:

We could, but we don’t know what the market for such a player is going to be. In a sense there has been, in my view — and I’m not speaking for the players or the union — there has to be some degree of risk sharing here.

Perhaps Pohlad saying the Twins “could” make a splash was purely lip service. Certainly, pushing the notion of players sharing the risk doesn’t seem like a portent for a fast-and-loose spending spree. But the Twins might have a bit of wiggle room if they move on from Rosario, and it’s hard to imagine that yet another pair of playoff losses hasn’t enhanced the urgency to break that streak.

The Twins will need to determine what to do with the veritable engine of the “Bomba Squad” (Cruz) and look for some supporting characters on the pitching staff. As is the case with so many clubs following this year’s absence of fans, the primary unknown for the Twins is the extent to which ownership will spend to bring about those changes. Their payroll picture is in good enough shape that it’s reasonable to expect the Twins to be in on some mid-tier free agents and affordable trade targets regardless. And if Pohlad is willing to surprise again a year after spending on Donaldson, they could emerge as a dark horse for some bigger names.

Latest On Blue Jays’ Free Agent Targets

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2:24PM: Toronto also has interest in J.T. Realmuto, according to Sports Grid’s Craig Mish (Twitter link).  While the Jays have a fair amount of catching depth already on hand, Realmuto would obviously present a big upgrade over current starter Danny Jansen, backup Reese McGuire, and top prospect Alejandro Kirk.  If the Blue Jays did sign Realmuto, it’s fair to assume the Jays would shop at least one of their in-house catchers to other teams.

12:32PM: For the second straight offseason, the Blue Jays are checking in on a wide range of free agent options.  The club has already been linked to George Springer and DJ LeMahieu, and now The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) adds that Toronto has spoken with representatives for Michael Brantley and Justin Turner, and the Jays also made an offer to Kevin Gausman before Gausman accepted the Giants’ one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer.  Going beyond only established big leaguers, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the Jays have interest in Korean shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, noting that Toronto has “evaluated him closely.”

Beginning with the position players, Brantley, Turner, and Kim would each cost less than the likes of Springer or LeMahieu.  MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents had Brantley and Turner right next to each other in the No. 13 and 14 positions, projecting the two veterans for similar contracts — Brantley a two-year, $28MM pact and Turner for two years and $24MM.  Kim ranked seventh on the list due to his younger age (25), projected for a five-year, $40MM deal and another $7.625MM in a posting fee to the KBO League’s Kiwoom Heroes.

Brantley turned 34 in May and is seemingly less of a positional need for the Jays since he has exclusively played as a left fielder or DH over the last five seasons.  Toronto already has Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in left field and a Vladimir Guerrero Jr./Rowdy Tellez tandem penciled in for the first base and DH roles, so a Brantley signing would to hint that a trade could be in the offing.  Guerrero has been vocal about wanting to play third base again, so conceivably the Jays could find room for Brantley without a trade, but it doesn’t seem too likely that the team would install Guerrero as a full-time option at the hot corner.

Turner or Kim would be the easier positional fit since either could immediately slide into the Blue Jays’ open third base spot.  Turner just celebrated his 36th birthday yesterday and, like Brantley, continues to swing a powerful bat into his 30’s.  A return to Los Angeles is certainly possible, however, as Rosenthal writes that Turner “still appears to be [the Dodgers’] first choice” in terms of infield additions, though they perhaps couldn’t be ruled out as a potential suitor for LeMahieu.  While Turner’s positive coronavirus test during Game 6 of the World Series and subsequent post-game return to the field to celebrate with his Dodgers teammates adds an inescapably strange footnote to his career, Turner won’t face any league discipline for the breach of COVID-19 protocol.

Signing Kim would be perhaps the most intriguing move possible, as unlike Brantley or Turner, Kim would be seen as a long-term building block to a Toronto organization that is already stocked with young infield talent both on the MLB roster and in the farm system.  While Kim could play third base immediately, he is also a well-regarded defensive shortstop, so the Blue Jays could experiment with trying Kim at short and moving current shortstop Bo Bichette to second or third base (with Cavan Biggio playing the other position).

Adding Kim might also made it more feasible for the Jays to trade one of their top infield prospects, with Jordan Groshans, Miguel Hiraldo, or Orelvis Martinez probably more likely to be moved than 2020 fifth-overall pick Austin Martin.  Since Martin is also a multi-positional threat, the Jays might try to develop him as a center fielder if Kim is signed to bolster the infield picture.  The Blue Jays (and the 29 other MLB teams) will get their first chance to directly speak with Kim after his 30-day negotiating window opens on November 26.

While possibilities abound on the position player side, pitching is Toronto’s chief focus this winter, so it isn’t surprising that they made an early pitch for Gausman.  Rosenthal reports that the Jays offered Gausman a three-year deal worth roughly $40MM, though the right-hander instead opted for the one-year deal to remain in San Francisco.  Should Gausman deliver another good season in 2021 and then return to the free agent market next winter, he’ll surely receive offers beyond the two years and $21.1MM he left on the table to accept the Giants’ qualifying offer.

Giants Interested In Jon Lester

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The Giants have interest in left-hander Jon Lester, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).  Lester entered free agency after the Cubs bought him out for $10MM rather than exercise a $25MM club option on the veteran’s services for 2021.

This isn’t the first time Lester has been connected to the Giants, as Morosi notes that Lester “seriously considered” joining the club during his last trip through the free agent market, back in the 2014-15 offseason.  Obviously much has changed within the Giants organization in those six years, though the club has some other ties to Lester — both manager Gabe Kapler and pitching coach Andrew Bailey are former teammates, dating back to Lester’s days with the Red Sox.

Lester would offer durability and veteran leadership to a rotation, though he is coming off a lackluster year in terms of on-field results.  Over 61 innings with the Cubs in 2020, Lester posted a 5.16 ERA, 2.47 K/BB rate, and 6.2 K/9.  With the caveat of the shortened season, that ERA and K/9 represented career-worsts for Lester, while his 1.6 HR/9 was the highest of his career.  There wasn’t much to like from the Statcast side either, as Lester gave up a lot of hard contact and his .328 wOBA actually outpaced his .348 xwOBA.

As it happens, these numbers might actually put Lester more squarely on the Giants’ radar.  As president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recently told the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea and other reporters, the free agent pitching market contains “a number of guys who have pretty significant pedigree who are coming off injuries or down seasons for whatever reasons.  It’s going to be a market where a lot of players are going to be looking to do short-term, make-good deals to re-enter the market.  For us, the cases of the guys we signed last year and the pitching infrastructure we’ve built up the last couple of years will be a strong selling point for us for those kinds of targets.”

Lester doesn’t quite fit that model, as another long-term contract in free agency probably isn’t in the cards for a hurler as he enters his age-37 season.  Still, landing an innings-eater like Lester would help add some depth to a Giants rotation.  Kevin Gausman was re-signed via the qualifying offer, Johnny Cueto is looking to bounce back from a disappointing year of his own, and left-hander Tyler Anderson is currently lined up as the third starter.  Beyond that veteran trio, Andrew Suarez, Logan Webb, Conner Menez, and (once he is back from Tommy John surgery) Tyler Beede all project to be rotation candidates, so another seasoned arm could be preferable given the lack of experience among these youngsters.

Lester and the Cubs were known to have mutual interest in a new contract, though there hasn’t been any news on that front in almost a month.  Though Jed Hoyer is now running Chicago’s front office rather than Theo Epstein, it’s probably somewhat safe to assume that the interest is still there on the Cubs’ side considering Hoyer’s long stint as assistant GM in the organization (and his own familiarity with Lester when Hoyer was an assistant GM with the Red Sox).

Latest On Astros, LeMahieu, Correa

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12:43PM: In an update to his original story, Rosenthal writes that the Astros are “not engaged in any active conversations on Correa.”  The team has, however, been in touch with LeMahieu.

11:39AM: The Astros are “floating” Carlos Correa’s name in trade talks with other teams, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  This isn’t the first time that Correa has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, though last year, then-general manager Jeff Luhnow shot down the possibility.

The root cause of Houston’s openness to a Correa trade remains the same — the team considers it “unlikely” that the shortstop will sign an extension before he hits free agency.  Correa is now only one season away from hitting the open market, as he is slated to be part of an elite group of shortstops headlining the 2021-22 free agent class.

Beyond Correa’s contract, naturally, the Astros face an entirely new set of issues that weren’t present when they thought about moving Correa last winter, ranging from the sign-stealing scandal that ousted Luhnow and then-manager A.J. Hinch, revenue losses caused by the pandemic, to Justin Verlander being lost to Tommy John surgery for the 2021 season.  Plus, the Astros also face the loss of two other notable position players, as George Springer and Michael Brantley are both free agents.

Moving Correa on top of losing both Springer and Brantley could almost make 2021 into something of a mini-rebuild type of season for Houston, though there hasn’t been any indication that the Astros are looking to take much of a step backwards.  For instance, the Astros have had talks with Brantley and (as a replacement for Springer in center field) Jackie Bradley Jr.

However, Rosenthal reports that the Astros aren’t likely to pursue any of Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, or DJ LeMahieu, as since those players rejected qualifying offers, Houston would have to give up draft picks in order to sign them.  This isn’t an appetizing thought for an organization that already lost multiple picks as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Re-signing their own free agent in Springer (who also turned down a QO) wouldn’t cost the Astros any picks, of course, though Houston might prefer to restock their draft coffers with the compensatory pick received if Springer signed elsewhere.

Trading Correa would also theoretically net a good return for the Astros, though a lot of factors will impact his market.  Teams might not be keen on paying a premium for just one year of Correa’s services, and there are several other options available to shortstop-needy teams in both free agency (Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, Ha-Seong Kim) and in trades (Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez).

Correa is coming off a season that saw him hit only .264/.326/.383 over 221 plate appearances in the regular season, but he caught fire during Houston’s postseason run, with a whopping 1.221 OPS over 55 PA.  Correa is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and is projected to earn $8.8MM under the “37 percent” calculation method of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Ha-Seong Kim To Be Posted On November 25

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TODAY: Kim will be posted tomorrow, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News reports (Twitter link).  The 30-day negotiating window for Major League teams to speak to Kim will then open at 7am CT on November 26.

NOVEMBER 13: Kiwoom Heroes star Ha-Seong Kim is one of the most intriguing names in this year’s free agent market, and he will soon become available to speak with Major League teams.  The expectation is that Kim will be posted soon after the Thanksgiving break, Heroes general manager Chi-Hyun Kim told reporters (including ESPN’s Daniel Kim) today.  That would put Kim in line to hit the posting market around November 30 or December 1.

The KBO League recently pushed its posting period from November 10 to December 14 due to scheduling changes stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, as opposed to the usual November 1-December 5 window.  The exact date doesn’t really have any impact for Kim, as there is no longer any time limit on how long a player has to reach a deal with an MLB club.  The newer posting rules instituted between MLB and the KBO League removed that 30-day window, as the new rules focus on the size of the posting fee received by the KBO team based on the value of the Major League contract signed by the player in question.

Kim’s official entry into the open market could impact the overall picture for other free agent infielders, however.  Primarily a shortstop, teams might prefer to explore their chances at signing Kim before turning to other options like Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, or trade target Francisco Lindor.  Since there has been speculation that a Major League team could also deploy Kim as a second baseman, third baseman, or as a super-utility piece all over the infield, Kim’s presence could also somewhat hold up the second base and third base free agent markets.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that Kim would be a cheaper option than proven MLB players, however.  MLB Trade Rumors projected Kim for a five-year, $40MM deal (ranking him seventh on our Top 50 Free Agents list), owing the big numbers he has already posted over six full KBO seasons, his 25-year-old age, and the fact that he’ll have a wider market than some other free agents.  Kim’s age means that teams who are still a year or two away from contention will be in the mix to sign him, plus those teams can also offer immediate everyday playing time, whereas many contenders have fewer glaring holes around their infield.

Reds Open To Offers For Sonny Gray

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Just as the Rays are reportedly listening to trade offers on Blake Snell to see if someone will bowl them over, the Reds are performing their own due diligence and at least listening to offers on right-hander Sonny Gray, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. It’s important to note that there’s no indication Cincinnati is actively shopping Gray. However, Rosenthal adds that the Reds are seeking to pare back payroll in 2021, and it’s possible that a Gray trade could fill other needs on the big league roster while simultaneously lowering overall expenditures.

Gray, who just turned 31 earlier this month, would immediately stand out as one of most coveted arms in the game, although the price to acquire him would likely be reflective of that reality. He’s thrived since being traded to Cincinnati, posting a 3.07 ERA and 3.33 FIP with a 50.9 percent grounder rate and averages of 10.8 strikeouts, 3.7 walks and 0.82 home runs per nine innings pitched.

On top of that excellent performance, Gray is owed an eminently affordable $10MM in each of the next two seasons before the Reds (or another club) make the decision on a $12MM club option for the 2023 campaign. In a market that has remained strong for starting pitchers, at least early on, the appeal of Gray’s contract is all the more apparent. Already, we’ve seen Robbie Ray ($8MM with the Blue Jays), Drew Smyly ($11MM, Braves) and Charlie Morton ($15MM, Braves) command sizable one-year pacts.

Any package for Gray would surely need to be focused on MLB-ready talent. The Reds only just emerged from a years-long rebuilding effort and aren’t looking to tear things down by any account. That said, even with Trevor Bauer coming off the books, payroll could be tight. The Reds are looking at salary hikes for first-time arbitration players like Luis Castillo, Jesse Winker, Tyler Mahle and Amir Garrett. Others due raises in arbitration include catcher Curt Casali, righty Michael Lorenzen and trade deadline pickups Brian Goodwin and Archie Bradley.

The Reds also already have $101.375MM guaranteed to Joey Votto, Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez, Wade Miley, Raisel Iglesias, Tucker Barnhart and Gray. The projected salaries of their arbitration class could push that sum north by another $24MM or so, depending on non-tenders, and they’ll have to round out the roster with pre-arbitration players.

All in all, the Reds are likely looking at a payroll north of $130MM for the second straight season. Considering last year’s roughly $134MM Opening Day payroll (prior to prorated salaries) was already a franchise record, it’s not a shock that ownership is looking for ways to reduce spending without completely punting on competing in what should be a rather wide-open, four-team division race.

Remaining competitive would be the tricky part. Castillo gives the Reds a legitimate top-of-the-rotation presence even without Gray or Bauer present, and Miley has long been a durable source of innings. Lorenzen hopes to move into next year’s rotation, and Mahle had a solid 2020 showing. Still, it’d be a precipitous drop to go from a playoff rotation of Bauer, Gray and Castillo to a top three of Castillo, Miley and Mahle. The Reds could always add rotation help either as part of the return package for Gray or via the free-agent market, but arms of his caliber aren’t going to be available at a $10MM annual rate.

As for Gray’s potential market, he’d draw widespread interest, and history can provide a guide for a few potential fits. The Padres, Brewers and Twins were linked to Gray when the Yankees made it clear they were shopping him after the 2018 season — much different circumstances than at present. The Rangers were reported to have interest as well, although they’re unlikely to be in the mix now that they’re focusing on a youth movement.

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, meanwhile, was a member of the Athletics front office when Gray was drafted 18th overall and developed there, and we know San Francisco is looking for rotation help. The Blue Jays have also been in the hunt for rotation help and aren’t facing the type of payroll constraints felt by many of their rivals. The Angels seem to be perennially searching for starting pitching upgrades. Others would undoubtedly enter the fray.

It bears repeating that this appears to be a far different scenario than when Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said in 2018 that he was “open-minded to relocation” for Gray and conceded it was “probably best [for Gray] to try somewhere else.” Gray’s stock has skyrocketed since that time, and without some combination of MLB-ready young talent (ideally at shortstop and in the rotation), it’s hard to imagine a trade actually coming together. Even then, this would be a difficult trade to make for a Reds team intent on contending, but other clubs will be motivated to try to make them consider the possibility.

Braves Sign Charlie Morton

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The Braves have signed their second veteran starter in as many weeks, announcing on Tuesday that they’ve agreed to a one-year pact with right-hander Charlie Morton. The contract will pay Morton, a client of Jet Sports Management, a guaranteed $15MM for the 2021 season. (The Braves are one of the few clubs who divulge contract details in their press releases.) There are no incentives or no-trade clauses in the deal, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Rays were the other finalist in Morton’s market.

Charlie Morton | Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The loss of Morton surely stings for Rays fans, particularly given that his $15MM guarantee matches the sum for which the Rays could’ve retained him had they simply exercised a club option for the upcoming season. It seems that Tampa Bay had hoped to keep Morton at a lesser rate for the upcoming season, perhaps seeking to leverage their proximity to his family’s home in Bradenton, but the market for Morton proved strong. He’ll remain reasonably close to his family — it’s a 75-minute flight from Atlanta to Tampa — and now return to the organization that originally drafted him back in 2002.

Morton, 37, battled some shoulder fatigue and was limited to nine starts and 38 innings in 2020, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in that short time. The down time on the IL after his first two starts clearly did him some good, however, as the veteran righty returned with improved velocity and a 3.72 ERA in seven starts before going on to post a 2.70 ERA through 20 postseason innings. And of course, Morton is just one year removed from a third-place Cy Young finish with the Rays in 2019, when he worked to a 3.05 ERA and 2.81 FIP with 11.1 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 through 194 2/3 regular-season frames.

As has been general manager Alex Anthopoulos’ modus operandi since assuming his post in Atlanta, the Braves have acted quickly to address a clear need — and done so with the addition of short-term contracts for veterans. Morton joins southpaw Drew Smyly, who inked a one-year deal worth $11MM last week, as two new faces who’ll round out the Braves’ rotation behind Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Ian Anderson. The addition of Morton and Smyly likely pushes Kyle Wright out of the Atlanta rotation, although he has minor league options remaining and could head to Triple-A Gwinnett as a depth piece in the event of injury.

The Braves’ signings of both Morton and Smyly will at least allow them to entertain the idea of dealing from their pitching depth to address other needs and strengthen other areas this winter, though. Not only is Wright displaced from the rotation, but each of Sean Newcomb, Bryse Wilson, Touki Toussaint, Huascar Ynoa, Tucker Davidson, Patrick Weigel and Jasseel De La Cruz is now without a clear path to big league innings — at least in the rotation.

Soroka may require some extra time to recover from an Achilles tear that ended his 2020 season, though an exact timeline on his return is still unclear. Wright is the likeliest option to stand in for him early in the year. Some of the names on that alternate arms be used as relievers and others in minor league rotations, but the Atlanta organization clearly has some young pitchers to peddle if they’re interested in virtually any trade asset on the market this winter.

As for the Braves’ payroll, the addition of Morton gives the team $93.7MM guaranteed to 10 players. Adding in an arbitration class projected to be worth roughly $20MM would push the payroll north of $113MM, although the Braves have some non-tender candidates among their ranks (e.g. Luke Jackson, Johan Camargo, Adam Duvall). The club could also look to move the final guaranteed year of center fielder Ender Inciarte’s contract in the coming months.

All of that is crucial to bear in mind as the team looks to retain free-agent left fielder Marcell Ozuna — or possibly to replace him if he lands elsewhere. We’ve not seen Anthopoulos spend at the levels it’d take to sign Ozuna since he took over the GM post in Atlanta, though it’s at least possible he’ll break that trend for Ozuna. To this point, Will Smith’s three-year, $40MM contract is the largest free-agent deal issued under this front office regime. It’s not known what extent the Liberty Media-owned Braves can further spend, but they’re a ways shy of the more than $150MM payroll they stood to carry on Opening Day 2020 (prior to the league shutdown and subsequent prorating of salaries).

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the two sides were close to a deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the agreement and the contract’s value (via Twitter).

Red Sox Interested In J.A. Happ

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The Red Sox are showing interest in free-agent left-hander J.A. Happ, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. They join the Angels, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams known to be eyeing Happ early this offseason.

Happ spent the previous two-plus years with Boston’s archrival, the Yankees, but New York declined his $17MM option for 2021 after last season. While that price tag proved prohibitive for the Yankees, Happ’s a long-effective starter who’s on the open market in the wake of a respectable campaign, and he should come at a more affordable cost this winter. The 38-year-old made nine starts in 2020 and posted a 3.47 ERA (with a much less inspiring 4.57 FIP) and 7.66 K/9 against 2.74 BB/9 over 49 1/3 innings.

The type of numbers Happ has typically offered would be welcome in Boston, whose rotation has its share of question marks at the moment. Ace Chris Sale missed all of 2020 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March, so it’s unknown when he will be able to debut next season. Eduardo Rodriguez also sat out the year on account of health issues, as he battled heart problems and COVID-19. The hope is that he’ll be ready to go next year, though. Nathan Eovaldi, Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta are the other favorites for rotation spots (Eovaldi is a shoo-in).  Happ would provide some more certainty as someone who has eaten a good deal of innings and recorded above-average production for several years.

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