Despite Report, No Deal Close Between MLB, MLBPA
11:15 AM: At least one player has decided to chime on the conversation. Zack Britton responded (via Twitter) to Heyman’s earlier tweet with a very simple and straightforward, “This is not accurate.”
10:28 AM: The prospects of owners and players being close to an agreement has been characterized as “beyond absurd” by someone close to the players, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Nicholson-Smith adds that the players will need to see more than just the incremental changes to the Collective Bargaining Tax that owners were offering yesterday.
9:34 AM: Amid all the doom-and-gloom surrounding the CBA negotiation, there is at least one voice suggesting a deal could be in the offing. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports this morning that the two sides are “within striking distance” of a deal, and the two sides could reach a suitable compromise by tomorrow night. MLBTR’s sources disagree vehemently with Heyman’s report, however, and continue to say that a deal is not close.
Most of the other scuttlebutt, including from Heyman, suggests that the players left yesterday’s session upset and unconvinced of the owners willingness to negotiate in earnest. At the same time, despite the hostility, players have not walked away yet, with another meeting scheduled between the two sides for today at noon.
Heyman suggests the difference could be a settling of the luxury tax threshold around the $230MM mark. That would more-or-less evenly split the divide between the two sides, but that’s not the way negotiations have leaned thus far. That’s to say nothing of the many other issues on which the two sides are at odds. At last reporting, the gap between the two was still at $31MM for 2022, with the players offering a $245MM luxury tax line, and the owners countering at $214MM.
Multiple Teams Closing Spring Complexes To Opposing Scouts
Some MLB teams are closing their spring complexes to scouts from other teams until either Major League spring play commences or until after the Rule 5 draft, per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (via Twitter).
McDaniel also suggests the Rule 5 draft could be cancelled outright, at which point teams would likely be more lenient. Canceling the Rule 5 draft would be unfortunate, as it offers at least an opportunity to blocked minor league players to get opportunities for promotion elsewhere. While it may pale in comparison to the other issues currently on the table, canceling the Rule 5 draft would close off at least one avenue that struggling teams have utilized to find and audition controllable players.
The implications here are fairly clear. Currently the only players allowed in camp are those that are not on the 40-man roster. Those are also the players who will be available for plucking during the Rule 5 draft. By locking opposing scouts out of camp, teams are strategically denying valuable information to clubs about the progress of certain players. Without current scouting, teams picking in the Rule 5 draft will have to rely on old information, which is difficult when specifically looking for players who might have jumped a rung in terms of their development.
Last year’s Rule 5 draft proved a (relatively) fertile area of player acquisition for Major League clubs. Akil Baddoo (Tigers), Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox), Jordan Sheffield (Rockies), Trevor Stephan (Guardians), and Zach Pop (Marlins) being among the players who stuck with new clubs after being taken in the draft. Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks) put up 1.1 rWAR for Arizona after being selected in the Triple-A phase of the draft. He improbably tosses a No-Hitter in his first start for the Diamondbacks, finishing the year with a 3.15 ERA/4.27 FIP over 40 innings in the Majors. These players provided some of the more memorable success stories from the 2021 campaign.
Whitlock, for example, was one of the most important players on a playoff team. Working out of the bullpen, Whitlock became the Red Sox most reliable reliever down the stretch. He finished the year with a 1.96 ERA/2.84 FIP across 46 outings totaling 73 1/3 innings, good for 3.0 rWAR. Finding a ready contributor like Whitlock in another team’s complex will be much more difficult if scouts don’t have access to those playing fields.
Quick Hits: Cubs, Giants
While the lockout rages on, so, too, does front office churn. Here’s the latest from front offices around the game…
- Cubs assistant GM Jeff Greenberg is one of three finalists to be then next GM of the Chicago Blackhawks, writes The Athletic’s Scott Powers and Mark Lazerus. Greenberg’s candidacy is definitely a bit of a surprise, and he’s not the odds-on frontrunner of the final three. The once-proud Blackhawks are staring down another season outside the playoff field, and with the championship stalwarts of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews in their age-33 seasons, they’re eager to get the franchise back on track. With Captain Serious largely out of action because of injuries, Kane is only only palpable link to Chicago’s Stanley Cup winners in 2010, 2013, and 2015. The closest baseball corollary to these Blackhawks might be the pre-2020 Giants, and the Hawks would love a similarly quick turnaround. If they miss the playoffs this season, as expected, it will be the fifth time in the last six years that Chicago sits out postseason play. Greenberg has no formal experience in hockey, but he wouldn’t be the first executive to switch playing fields. Paul DePodesta is the hallmark example, having jumped from baseball to the NFL to run the Browns. To see how this saga ends, stay plugged into the latest Blackhawks news over at Pro Hockey Rumors.
- The Giants have hired Josh Herzenberg as the Assistant Director of Player Development, per Herzenberg himself on Twitter. Herzenberg has spent the past two years working with the Lotte Giants of the Korean Baseball Organization. He started in the KBO as a pitching coordinator, but rose to the level of Director of Research and Development and International Scouting. Prior to his time overseas, Herzenberg spent time in the scouting departments of both the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers. Congrats to Herzenberg on his new position in San Francisco.
Latest CBA Talks Lead To “Hostile” Meeting Between Players, Owners
7:19PM: The MLBPA and the league have agreed to resume talks at noon CT on Sunday, according to multiple reports.
4:39PM: Today’s negotiating sessions between the league and the MLB Players Association have concluded for the day, after a pair of separate meetings between the two sides. After each group conferred privately for an extended period of time, MLBPA reps presented a new proposal to the owners during a 15-minute session. The ownership group then took time to mull over the offer before another meeting with the players that lasted roughly 45 minutes.
The union’s proposal was a “comprehensive” offer that addressed several core economic issues, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers (Twitter links). Perhaps most importantly in terms of finding common ground on a new collective bargaining agreement, the MLBPA is now “backing significantly off” some of its most noteworthy asks in previous offers. This includes changes to the players’ previous demands about the luxury tax, an expansion in Super Two eligibility, and cuts to the amount of revenue-sharing funds allocated to smaller-market teams.
Despite these concessions, the owners still “reacted badly” to the latest union offer, The Athletic’s Evan Drellich reports. This led to an “outraged” reaction from the players and a “hostile” tone in the second meeting between the two sides. As per Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, the “players are currently considering walking away from the table” altogether, rather than take part in meetings that were slated for tomorrow and Monday.
As reported by ESPN’s Enrique Rojas (Spanish-language link) and The Associated Press, the MLBPA is now seeking to expand Super Two eligibility to 35% of all players who have between two and three years of service time. This represents a major decrease from the players’ previous ask of 75% of all players within that service-time window, and yet apparently it isn’t enough to change the owners’ stance. The league has been steadfast in refusing any expansion to the Super Two structure — in the last CBA, the top 22% of players with between two and three years of service time received an extra year of arbitration eligibility.
Likewise, the league has refused any discussion of changes to the revenue-sharing structure. The union initially sought a $100MM cut in revenue-sharing funds, and later dropped that demand to $30MM. Today’s proposal altered that number further, as teams receiving revenue-sharing wouldn’t lose any money, but would still be incentivized to increase local revenue with the offer of extra money made available from MLB’s central fund. However, the owners are still not willing to budge whatsoever on the topic.
Discussions about the competitive balance tax have at least led to some back-and-forth negotiations, albeit without much progress. The players made a $2MM reduction for each of the second, third, and fourth years of luxury tax thresholds, breaking down the numbers as follows: a $245MM tax number in 2022, $250MM in 2023, $257MM in 2024, $264MM in 2025, and $273MM in 2026.
The league made only one change to its base tax thresholds, with a $1MM increase to the second year of the CBA. The owners’ proposed luxury tax thresholds are $214MM in 2022, $215MM in 2023, $216MM in 2024, $218MM in 2025, and $222MM in 2026.
In regards to the penalties for exceeding those thresholds, Major League Baseball again made only slight adjustments from its previous offer. In today’s proposal from the league, teams exceeding each of the three levels for the first time would pay a 45% tax on the overage of any dollar spent between $214MM-$234MM, a 62% tax on overages from $234MM-$254MM, and a 95% tax rate on the overage for anything spent beyond the $254MM mark. Previously, the league wanted respective tax rates of 50%, 75%, and 100% for each of the three thresholds.
These are obviously still sizeable jumps over the overage tax rates in the last CBA (20%, 32%, and 62.5%), and the league has compounded the penalty by asking that teams that surpass the second and third tiers lose draft picks. The MLBPA has been adamantly against the owners’ luxury tax asks, viewing the demands as essentially the creation of an unofficial salary cap.
As reported yesterday by Drellich and Ken Rosenthal, the league has been looking shorten the amount of time required before unilateral on-field rule changes can be imposed. The previous CBA had a one-year grace period between a league’s proposal and (whether the union agreed to the rule changes or not) the implementation of said new rules, though the owners are now looking for a grace period of only 45 days. The MLBPA has been resistant to this shorter window of time, and the league needs the players’ approval in the next CBA to agree to the owners’ ability to implement unilateral rule changes of any kind.
Returning to the issue of service time, the league has agreed that players who finish first or second in Rookie Of The Year voting will receive a full year of service time. (Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch was among those to report the news.) This counts as a minor win for the players, even if the MLBPA has been looking at a WAR-based formula for multiple players who excel in their rookie seasons to receive service time. The league had been looking instead address the service-time manipulation issue by offering extra draft picks to teams who have players with top-three finishes in the ROY/MVP/Cy Young voting during their first three arbitration-eligible seasons.
If there is any other minor glimpse of good news from today’s meetings, one CBA issue has apparently been settled. The owners and players agreed to a new rule on minor league options, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that players can now be sent to the minor leagues a maximum of five times per season.
Unfortunately, progress has apparently been lost on the topic of a draft lottery. Reports from yesterday’s negotiating sessions indicated that the two sides were at least coming close to settling the exact number of teams involved in such a lottery, though the owners attempted to make a larger lottery (as per the MLBPA’s demands) contingent on the acceptance of a 14-team postseason. That same offer was floated by the league today and turned down by the players, who had previously expressed a willingness to expand the playoffs to 12 teams. Given the amount of extra revenue involved in extra postseason games, it isn’t surprising that the union isn’t willing to make such a major concession to the owners without tying it to an issue of greater import than the draft lottery.
Saturday’s sessions mark the sixth consecutive day of talks between the two sides, yet this increase in negotiations has yet to produce much in the way of concrete progress. MLB has stated that without a CBA in place by Monday, some regular-season games will have to be canceled, though the union has remained skeptical that the league truly sees February 28th as a firm deadline.
However, some Spring Training games have already been canceled, and it becomes increasingly unlikely that Opening Day will proceed as scheduled on March 31. If the hard feelings reportedly generated in today’s meetings actually do result in a breakdown in talks, it will only lead to more dismay and frustration among baseball fans who are more than ready for the lockout to be over.
MLB Looking To Move Athletics Back To Revenue-Sharing Recipient Status
The Athletics were singled out in something of a unique fashion in the last collective bargaining agreement, as their status as a revenue-sharing recipient was gradually phased out over the course of the five-year deal. Under the terms of the now-expired 2016-21 CBA, the Athletics’ normal take of revenue-sharing funds dropped to 75% in 2017, 50% in 2018, 25% in 2019, and then nothing for the CBA’s final two years.
As negotiations about the new CBA (slowly) continue between the owners and players, the league is now looking to once again reinstall the A’s as a recipient of revenue-sharing, MLB Trade Rumors’ Tim Dierkes reports (via Twitter). This appears to be one of the relatively few areas of common ground between the two sides, as the MLBPA is “willing to” restore the Athletics’ former status.
It remains to be seen exactly how baseball’s revenue-sharing system could be altered in the next CBA, though given the owners’ unwillingness to discuss any revenue-sharing changes whatsoever with the union, whatever changes are made could be pretty minor. It could be that Oakland’s shift back into the recipient category might stand as the biggest move in this area, as the A’s will now stand to make tens of millions of extra dollars each year.
Under the terms of the last CBA, 48% of each team’s local revenues were placed into a pool, then divided equally among all 30 teams. Since some teams’ local revenues are naturally much larger than others, this provided quite a windfall for smaller-market clubs. While the exact figures weren’t known, MLB.com’s Jane Lee wrote in December 2016 that the A’s received over $30MM in revenue-sharing funds in 2016.
This will have a wider impact on the other 29 teams, as the revenue-sharing teams will now be paying a slightly larger share of that revenue pot with the Athletics now removed from the sharers list. Likewise, the teams receiving funds will now also get a slightly lesser share of the pie, with the A’s joining the party. There was also the concept of the revenue-sharing rebate for larger-market teams in the last CBA (as explained by The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier) though it isn’t known if a similar mechanism might be in place for the next agreement.
The seemingly neverending saga of the Athletics’ quest for a new ballpark was the reason for their initial inclusion on the revenue-sharing list, and now the reason for their return. Despite the lack of revenue generated from the Coliseum, the A’s don’t exactly play in a “small market,” given the size of Oakland and the Bay Area market in general. As such, the decision was made to gradually remove the team from the group of revenue-sharers, though with over five years now gone, the Athletics are still not much closer to landing that long-desired new stadium.
Amidst much speculation about a potential move to Las Vegas, there has recently been more positive momentum towards a new ballpark in Oakland. The franchise’s longstanding concept of a new stadium in the Howard Terminal area was recently given a vote of confidence by Oakland’s City Council, which certified an environmental impact review on the project.
There are still more logistical hurdles to be jumped, however, and between those potential obstacles and the time necessary to actually build the ballpark and adjoining infrastructure, it is quite possible the A’s might not have their new stadium in place before the end of a hypothetical 2022-26 term of the next CBA. More will be known about the Athletics’ fate (whether in Oakland, Las Vegas, or elsewhere) in the next few years, so by the time the next CBA talks roll around, it would seem like the A’s would again be removed from the revenue-sharing recipient category if a new stadium project is indeed up and running.
In the interim, the A’s will reap the benefits of additional revenue. For Oakland fans wondering if this means the team will spend these new funds on player payroll, it’s worth remembering that Athletics weren’t big spenders in their previous era of receiving revenue-sharing money, so a sudden spending splurge probably isn’t likely. Since the A’s wouldn’t get any new funds until the end of the 2022 season anyway, it won’t do much to forestall the speculation that the A’s will be looking to cut payroll and move at least some of their higher-salaried players once the lockout is over.
From the MLBPA’s perspective, it was almost exactly four years ago today that the union filed a grievance against the Athletics, Rays, Pirates, and Marlins about how the teams were allocating the money collected via revenue-sharing, as receiving those funds wasn’t reflected in any boosts in player payroll. To that end, it might seem curious that the union would be okay with the A’s again joining the revenue-sharing list, though speculatively, there could be a bigger-picture tactic at play. As much as the league has claimed that any negotiations about revenue-sharing practices are a non-starter in CBA talks, the Athletics’ situation itself counts as a notable change in the revenue-sharing plan, which the MLBPA might perceive as a crack in the owners’ stonewall on the subject.
Beyond just the extra cash, the A’s may also benefit in another fashion from being a revenue-sharing recipient, depending on how the new CBA addresses free agent compensation. Under the last agreement, revenue-sharing recipients stood to land a compensatory draft pick directly after the first round if they had a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer and signed with another club for more than $50MM. While teams that lost certain free agents would still be eligible for a compensatory pick in the league’s new proposal, it remains to be seen exactly what the criteria would be for that compensation, or if revenue-sharing teams would be in line for a greater draft reward.
AL Notes: Glasnow, Astros, Kreidler, Canterino
In the latest step of Tyler Glasnow‘s recovery from Tommy John surgery, the Rays right-hander has started throwing, agent Joel Wolfe told Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times. Glasnow underwent his surgery in early August, so while it’s very up in the air as to whether or not he’ll be able to make it back to action before the 2022 season is out, he is setting an in-season return as his goal. Beyond just his health, the other question concerning Glasnow is whether or not he’d be returning to the mound in a Rays uniform — projected for a $5.8MM salary this year, Glasnow has been widely speculated as a trade candidate for a Tampa club that is forever looking to manage its payroll.
Some other tidbits from around the American League…
- “Position addition” is the name for the Astros‘ process of experimenting with its most athletic prospects at various other positions, The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome writes. Naturally, the more versatile a player is, the better his chances at reaching the majors in some kind of role. “It always depends on what the major league roster is going to look like in the future, but I think it just raises a lot of those guys’ floors,” Astros field coordinator Jason Bell said. “I think our guys have been fairly open to it…and I think a lot of times they think it’s fun.” Of the 23 position players in Houston’s minicamp, 12 are designated as part of an “infielder/outfielder” defensive grouping, working at positions both in the grass and on the dirt.
- Tigers prospect Ryan Kreidler may know a few things about position changes, as the longtime shortstop saw Javier Baez suddenly emerge as a roadblock after Baez landed in the Motor City on a six-year, $140MM deal. While Baez can opt out of that contract after the 2023 season, Kreidler will likely be focusing on other positions in the interim — he has played a handful of games at third base and second base during his two minor league seasons. “I will do whatever the Tigers want me to do, whether it’s shortstop, shortstop and third base, or utility,” Kreidler told Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. “Whatever they deem me capable of doing I will do it to the best of my ability and just keep trucking…I think shortstops have the ability to play all over the field, that’s why continuing to take reps at shortstop is good for me.” After a strong performance at the plate in 2021, Kreidler drew the attention of prospect evaluators and other teams, and now looks like yet another promising young Detroit player on the cusp of the big leagues. Jonathan Schoop and Jeimer Candelario have second and third base spoken for, and are both also controlled through 2023, so a utility role might indeed be Kreidler’s best path to the Tigers’ active roster.
- Elbow problems limited Matt Canterino to 23 innings in 2021, and between that abbreviated season and the canceled 2020 minor league campaign, the Twins prospect has tossed only 48 professional innings since being selected in the second round of the 2019 draft. Canterino came to Minnesota’s minicamp on a clean bill of health, he told Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, and he is now focused on staying on the field. “I can’t really worry too much about a shutdown period, like how my workload’s going to be managed, but I can do the things that I think are going to help me stay healthy in the long run,” Canterino said. The righty has looked tremendous when he has been able to pitch, posting a 1.13 ERA and a whopping 42.94% strikeout rate over his 48 innings (topping out at the high-A level).
Brett Gardner Planning To Play In 2022
Brett Gardner indicated last October that he wanted to return to the Yankees for another season, and almost five months later, the free agent outfielder’s stance hasn’t changed. Joe Bick, Gardner’s agent, told The New York Post’s Joel Sherman that his client was still preparing to play in 2022, and “would obviously prefer to stay with the [Yankees] the entirety of his career.” It isn’t a Bronx-or-bust situation, however, as Bick said that Gardner is open to playing for another club.
After 14 seasons in the pinstripes, Gardner is still putting up respectable numbers even as he approaches his age-38 season. Gardner was a 1.4 fWAR player over 140 games and 461 plate appearances last year, with his strong baserunning and decent left field/center field glovework offsetting a below-average (90 OPS+, 93 wRC+) slash line of .222/.327/.362. Gardner retained his good eye at the plate, finishing in the 92nd percentile of all players in walk rate. On the down side, Gardner delivered his sixth consecutive season of subpar hard-contact numbers, finishing well below the league average in hard-hit ball percentage, barrels, and barrel percentage.
As Sherman notes, most of Gardner’s offensive struggles took place early in the season, and before the league-mandated crackdown on doctored baseballs. Gardner had only a .507 OPS over his first 137 plate appearances last season, and then a much more solid .768 OPS over his final 324 PA.
It is also possible that Gardner might have been more productive if the Yankees had more flexibility in choosing when to deploy the veteran. Instead, Gardner ended up playing in 140 games due to a variety of injuries to other New York outfielders. While the Yankees figure to make some kind of move to their current outfield mix, they could simply opt to bring back a known quantity in Gardner, either alongside a more notable addition or maybe as the veteran complement to a younger outfielder (i.e. Estevan Florial) the Yankees hope can break out as a capable big leaguer.
The Bronx Bombers have re-signed Gardner to one-year contracts in each of the last three winters. His one-year, $12.5MM deal for the 2020 season carried a 2021 club option that was declined, and his most recent contract (a one-year, $5.15MM pact) had a twin option. Gardner had the first choice of whether or not to accept a $2.3MM player option for 2022, and if declined, the Yankees could then decide on a $7.15MM club option with a $1.15MM buyout. Both Gardner and the team declined the options, sending Gardner to the open market once again.
If Gardner did indeed look elsewhere for his next deal, he’ll face a lot of competition in the post-lockout signing frenzy. Teams may prefer younger (and cheaper) outfield depth options than a 38-year-old, though on the flip side, some clubs might appreciate the chance to get an experienced veteran into their clubhouse. The Phillies and Marlins have each been speculatively mentioned as potential fits for Gardner, as both teams have needs in the outfield and Gardner has longstanding ties to Phillies manager Joe Girardi and Marlins CEO Derek Jeter from their time together in New York.
Braves Sign Brandyn Sittinger To Minors Deal
The Braves have signed right-handed pitcher Brandyn Sittinger to a minor league deal, according to the club’s transactions log at MLB.com. Sittinger was eligible to sign during the lockout because he was outrighted in October of last year and elected minor league free agency after the season.
Sittinger was originally drafted by the Tigers but was released after topping out at Double-A. The reliever then signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks prior to the 2020 season. He wasn’t able to pitch in organized games that year due to the pandemic wiping out the minor leagues. Last year, between Double-A and Triple-A, he threw 39 1/3 innings with an ERA of 4.12. His walk rate was a bit high at 10.6%, but he offset that with a tremendous 33.1% strikeout rate.
That was intriguing enough for the Diamondbacks to give him a shot at the big leagues, as they selected his contract in September. Sittinger was able to log 4 2/3 innings of MLB action, though that small sample yielded a 7.71 ERA, 9.5% walk rate and miniscule 4.8% strikeout rate.
The 27-year-old will now join the reigning World Series champs as minor league depth. The club’s reliever corps was dented somewhat at the end of the season, as hurlers such as Jesse Chavez, Richard Rodriguez, Chris Martin and Josh Tomlin reached free agency. Sittinger still has options, meaning that he can provide Atlanta with a relief arm that can be shuttled between Triple-A and the big leagues, if he can earn himself a roster spot.
Rays Sign David McKay To Minor League Deal
The Rays have signed right-hander David McKay to a minor league deal with an invite big league camp, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter). McKay was eligible to sign during the lockout because he was outrighted by the Tigers in 2020 and hadn’t signed with another club until now.
McKay made his MLB debut in 2019 with the Mariners, logging seven innings before being claimed on waivers by the Tigers and throwing 19 1/3 innings for them. He ended that season with 26 1/3 innings and an ERA of 5.47 between the two clubs. His 14.8% walk rate was certainly not pretty, but he also struck out batters at a clip of 29.6%, well above that year’s league average of 23%. He also added 45 2/3 Triple-A innings that year between the two organizations, putting up a 4.93 ERA and a terrific 37% strikeout rate, though with the concerning walk rate still present at 14.9%.
In 2020, McKay was limited a one unfortunate outing in Detroit’s Opening Day game, which was in late July because of the pandemic delay. He recorded one out before allowing a walk and a homer and then getting pulled. The Tigers optioned him a couple of days later and, with the pandemic wiping out the minors, he wasn’t able to pitch in organized games again. The club designated him for assignment in September.
As noted by Topkin, the righty underwent hip surgery in April of last year, which has kept him out of action since then. In a column about the signing, Topkin adds that McKay has recently been “hitting 96 mph with his fastball and spinning his slider effectively.” The Rays have developed a reputation for building their pitching staff by finding hidden gems and turning them into fearsome weapons. With McKay already showing a sensational ability to rack up strikeouts, the club will just need to improve his control in order for him to be their next successful reclamation project. McKay will turn 27 years old in March, has less than a year of service time under his belt and has an option year remaining, making him a good fit for Tampa’s style of cycling through a large number of cheap and optionable bullpen arms.
Latest On Carlos Correa
Going into the offseason, there were many parallels between the top two free agents, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Both were shortstops reaching free agency at the age of 27 and coming off excellent platform seasons. Seager, along with agent Scott Boras, secured a ten-year, $325MM contract from the Rangers prior to the lockout. Correa, however, did not sign before transactions were frozen and then hired the Boras corporation to represent him in January. Once the lockout is lifted, his continued search for a contract will be one of the top storylines to follow. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at some of the options, including the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers and Cubs, while Ken Rosenthal and Corey Brock of The Athletic, look into the fit with the Red Sox and Mariners, respectively.
The Dodgers, of course, had Seager as their shortstop in recent years and just saw him depart for the Rangers. The expectation has been that they were comfortable enough with that loss because they could rely on Trea Turner to take over at short. If the Dodgers were to then pivot to Correa, however, that would likely involve Turner moving over to second base, much like he did when he and Seager were on the roster together after he was acquired from the Nationals at last year’s trade deadline. Since Turner is just one year away from free agency, signing a long-term deal with Correa could be a way to proactively address the shortstop void one year before it’s absolutely necessary. This scenario seems to have been already considered by the Dodgers’ brass, as Sherman reports that they offered Seager a $275MM deal before he signed with the Rangers. However, he also notes that it might not be as simple as swapping Correa in for Seager, as Correa’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal might not go over so well with fans of the Dodgers, since they were defeated by that now-infamous team in the 2017 World Series.
That same issue is present with another reported suitor, the Yankees, as they were felled by the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. But Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman has previously stated that the reaction of the fans “is not going to enter my calculus right now.” Since Gleyber Torres was moved to second base last year, it was expected that the Yankees would be major players in this year’s shortstop market. However, they may be willing to eschew a big splash, preferring to target a short-term stopgap option to hold down the position until it’s taken over by one of their prospects, either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. It’s also possible that this is merely a posture for negotiating purposes and that the club may emerge as a genuine suitor for Correa. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that they did check in with Correa prior to the lockout, but seemed to prefer Seager. Since Correa was reportedly looking for a contract slightly above what Seager eventually got, it may be difficult for a deal to come together.
The Blue Jays have less of an obvious need for Correa, given the presence of Bo Bichette at short. Sherman opines that the club could sign Correa and then bump Bichette to either second or third, but then downplays the possibility of them dishing out a contract nearing Correa’s asking price. Given the fact that they were reportedly in the mix for Seager prior to the lockout, the possibility can’t be ruled out entirely. The sign-stealing situation clearly isn’t an issue for the Jays, as they’ve already signed George Springer, Correa’s teammate in Houston. But even if they do have the payroll to make a big splash after the lockout, they may use it to make a run at Freddie Freeman instead.
The Tigers have long been considered a speculative fit for Correa, given the fact that their manager is A.J. Hinch, who previously managed Correa in Houston. However, they already made a big investment at shortstop when they signed Javier Baez prior to the lockout. Although Baez played some second base with the Mets last year in deference to Francisco Lindor and could theoretically do the same again, it still would be shocking to see them double down in such an aggressive fashion. Sherman also speculates that the Cubs could be a dark horse here. The club was primarily focused on tearing down last year, trading away most of the core pieces from their previous competitive window, including Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Since the offseason began, they have been surprisingly active in making additions, bringing on Marcus Stroman, Yan Gomes and Wade Miley. However, those players were all brought aboard with short-term commitments and pivoting to the type of lengthy deal that would be required to sign Correa seems unlikely at this stage.
As for the Red Sox, Rosenthal lays out a scenario where Correa takes over as their shortstop given that his defense is far superior to that of Xander Bogaerts, who could be shuffled over to second base. However, he also points out that, given the lockout-shortened Spring Training to come, there will be less time for Bogaerts to develop his skills at a new position than there would be in a more normal year, perhaps making the plan too awkward to implement successfully. After this season, Bogaerts can opt-out of the three years and $60MM that will be remaining on his contract, something that he seems likely to do if he has another healthy and productive season. Signing Correa now could be a way for Boston to preemptively replace Bogaerts, but as Rosenthal points out, the club hasn’t signed a free agent contract larger than $14MM since Chaim Bloom became the club’s chief baseball officer. Suddenly dropping $300MM on the table would be a huge departure in strategy. However, it’s exactly because of that avoidance of significant commitments that the club’s future payroll is fairly blank. If Bogaerts does indeed opt out after this season, that would leave Chris Sale as the only serious commitment on the books.
For the Mariners, Brock doesn’t believe it likely that there’s a match here. However, he points out that, if Correa is interested in going to Seattle, they have the money to make it happen. The club’s payroll for the year is currently around $87MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. From 2015 to 2019, the club’s annual budget hovered in the $120-160MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That leaves plenty of breathing room, if the club is willing to push up to those spending levels again in an attempt to build on last year’s 90-win campaign. The team’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto previously stated that the club wouldn’t supplant J.P. Crawford as the team’s shortstop, but it’s hard to imagine that strategy is so etched in stone that they wouldn’t consider adding a talent like Correa if the stars aligned for them to do so.
Clearly, there are many ways Correa’s market could play out once the lockout ends. With the freezing of transactions and contract negotiations, we can’t really know the intentions of any of these parties until that ice breaks and dominos start falling again. Due to the compressed timeline that will eventually exist between the signing of a new CBA and the start of the season, this will all have to play out in an expedited fashion. And with Boras also representing many other high-profile free agents like Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon and more, that figures to make the situation all the more frenzied.