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Poll: Which Qualifying Offer Free Agent Will Sign First?

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The deadline for accepting the qualifying offer has come and gone, with two players (the Mets’ Marcus Stroman and the Giants’ Kevin Gausman) opting to accept the one-year, $18.9MM deal from their most recent team.  That leaves four other players in this year’s QO class, all of whom rejected the one-year offer — Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, and DJ LeMahieu.

There was some debate over whether or not Stroman or Gausman would even receive a qualifying offer, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that the two hurlers each chose to accept rather than test the open market.  For the other four, however, there was no doubt that each would receive and reject the QO since more lucrative, longer-term offers surely await in free agency.  Bauer, Realmuto, Springer, and LeMahieu take up four of the top five places on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only Marcell Ozuna — who was ineligible for another qualifying offer after being issued one last winter — interceding in the #4 spot.

Now that the QO detail has been settled, the question is which of the quartet will be the first to land that lucrative, long-term contract?  (And, it should be noted that “long-term” may not necessarily be the case in regards to Bauer.)  All of the financial uncertainty of the 2020-21 offseason might not necessarily impact these top-tier free agents in terms of overall earning potential, though the ripple effects of other signings elsewhere in the market could impact when exactly these big four stars sign their next contract.

For instance, there is some thought around baseball that this will be another slow winter for offseason activity, as the strained payrolls throughout the sport will make teams even more wary about making big free agent investments.  A large group of new free agents is expected to flood the market by the December 2 non-tender deadline, so teams might wait until that date to make any sort of significant move so they can assess all of their options.  A team in need of catching, for example, could hold off on making an offer to Realmuto until they know whether or not the Yankees could actually non-tender Gary Sanchez.

But this poll isn’t asking who the last to sign will be, it’s who will be the first.  As mentioned, Bauer/Realmuto/Springer/LeMahieu could be shielded in many respects from the crunch that other free agents are likely to face, and could get a lot of early attention from teams looking to make their offseason as simple as possible.  In the case of the Yankees and LeMahieu, a relatively quick re-signing would allow New York to check off one big box, and then figure out how to address other needs with what resources remain (if the Yankees are indeed trying to get under the $210MM luxury tax threshold).

With so much up in the air about the 2021 season, there’s a case to be made that any of these free agents would prefer to get a new contract locked up soon, so they can fully focus on getting ready for whatever challenges 2021 may bring.  If we reach March and there’s still question as to whether or not the pandemic will allow Opening Day to proceed as scheduled, or if the 2021 season will still be 162 games or not, no player would want the added uncertainty of still not knowing where they’ll be playing whenever Opening Day does occur.

Cast your vote, which of the Qualifying Offer Four will be the first to land their new contract? (Poll link for app users)

NL Notes: Nationals, Wood, Hoffman, Padres, Cubs

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Alex Wood was a target for the Nationals at the 2019 trade deadline, as Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports that the Nats “nearly acquired” the southpaw, who was then a member of the Reds.  The timing is interesting, as back injuries prevented Wood from making his 2019 debut until July 28, just three days prior to the deadline.  While Wood ended up making seven starts for Cincinnati that season, it’s fair to assume that the Nationals may been considering him as a reliever (or a swingman) given the dire state of Washington’s bullpen at the time.

Needless to say, the Nats don’t regret how things turned out for them at the 2019 deadline, as July 31 acquisition Daniel Hudson played a critical role in Washington capturing the World Series.  But with Wood now a free agent and the Nationals looking for some veteran pitching depth, GM Mike Rizzo could very well revisit the idea of adding the left-hander to the D.C. roster.  Wood was again hampered by injuries in 2020, tossing only 12 2/3 innings for the Dodgers during the regular season and posting a 6.39 ERA.  However, his campaign ended on the high note of a World Series ring and a 1.35 ERA (one run in 6 2/3 relief innings) in four postseason outings.

More from around the senior circuit…

  • The Padres announced that longtime third base coach Glenn Hoffman is retiring from coaching for a new position as a senior advisor in San Diego’s baseball operations department.  Hoffman has been a mainstay in the Padres’ third base box for the last 15 seasons, coming on the heels of seven seasons as the Dodgers’ third base coach (and a stint as the Dodgers’ interim manager in 1998, as Hoffman led the team to a 47-41 record).  As per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, bench coach Bobby Dickerson seems to be the favorite to take over third base coaching duties.
  • The Cubs will be looking for more pitching depth this winter, though Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that four rotation spots may be settled, to some extent.  Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks are obviously entrenched atop the starting five, and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein sounds comfortable on Alec Mills and Adbert Alzolay taking up the next pair of rotation spots.  There have been questions about Alzolay’s ability to stick in the rotation, but the Cubs were apparently impressed enough with the improvement of his slider to regard him as a starter.  Youngsters Tyson Miller, Brailyn Marquez, and Justin Steele will get a shot at the fifth starter’s role, but Chicago is also looking outside the organization at the middle-to-bottom tier of free agent pitchers, depending on what the Cubs decide to do with the rest of their roster.  Epstein has left open the possibility of bringing Jon Lester back on a short-term deal, but the Cubs are comfortable letting him test the market.

Giants’ Prospect Alexander Canario Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Giants prospect Alexander Canario dislocated his shoulder in the final week of the instructional league and underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado (via Twitter). The surgery was performed on his left shoulder by Dr. Ken Akizuki, notes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). The timetable for his return is unspecified at this time.

Canario was fifth on Baseball America’s midseason assessment of the Giants’ prospects. Josh Norris of BA wrote:

One of the team’s many talented Latin American prospects, Canario made a big impression in 2019 by getting to short-season Salem-Keizer and producing a 1.000 OPS as a teenager. He was added to the Giants’ player pool as a teenager this season and has the offensive tools to profile in a corner outfield spot.”

Though Canario had the opportunity to train at their alternate site as part of the 60-man player pool, he’s likely a few years from the majors, especially after this injury. The right-handed outfielder spent 2019 split between the Arizona League and Low-A Salem-Keizer, where he was close to two years younger than the average player. His total line comprised of 265 plate appearances over 59 games. He slashed an impressive .318/.377/.623 with 16 home runs.

Canario is part of an excited young group of San Francisco prospects, with Joey Bart, Marco Luciano, Hunter Bishop, Patrick Bailey, Luis Matos, and Heliot Ramos, among others. With Bart reaching the Majors this season and Ramos a year or two ahead of Luciano and Canario, the Giants plan to be competing by the time Canario arrives in the bigs. At the very least, Canario has the chance to be part of a finishing wave of prospects that the Giants hope can turn them back into first-class contenders.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Catchers, Rays, McKay, Red Sox, Cora

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The Blue Jays are prepared to make impact moves this offseason, but they’re also preaching patience, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. If they do make a move early – beyond what they’ve done so far – GM Ross Atkins thinks it will be a significant one. Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, Atkins said, “If we were to move earlier, the impact would be significant. And that doesn’t take us out of significant impact later.” If you’re sensing a theme, you’re not imagining it: The Jays are dreaming big this winter. One of the biggest names available is catcher J.T. Realmuto. The former Phillie would fit the mold described above, but Atkins also says they are “extremely satisfied” with Toronto’s catching situation. And why shouldn’t they be? With Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire and Alejandro Kirk all contributing at the big-league level, they have affordable depth and upside in the form of Kirk, who hit .375/.400/.583 in a 24-at-bat cup-of-coffee in 2020. Still, that depth can be repurposed to make room for a star like Realmuto, especially in the American League where the DH provides opportunity for diversified playing time.

  • Southpaw Brendan McKay remains in Baseball America’s list of top-10 Rays prospects, but J.J. Cooper sounds concerned about McKay’s ability to recover from shoulder surgery on Kyle Glaser’s Baseball America podcast. Cooper notes that Hyun Jin Ryu took about three years to really return to form after a similar surgery. All that said, it’s telling that McKay remains at number six on the list. Until he begins his return and something new emerges, the only confirmed change for McKay is his timeline and his risk profile. The upside that made McKay a top prospect in the first place remains.
  • Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom was given full discretion to make the final hiring decision for the Red Sox managerial opening this offseason. Bringing back Alex Cora wasn’t money in the bank, as it might seem, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The assumption would be that Bloom had the final say-so, but given the unique nature of Cora’s return, and the fact that Bloom didn’t hire Cora the first time around, it would be fair to wonder how much ownership weighed in on the decision. The idea to interview Cora at all, however, was Bloom’s, per Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe. Bloom and general manager Brian O’Halloran met with Cora in an “empty hangar on the airport tarmac.” It was an exhausting but thorough interview by the accounts of those involved, and it didn’t seal the deal. That interview simply entered Cora into the field. Bloom and O’Halloran kept ownership and their assistant general managers involved in the process throughout, but ultimately the decision was left to Bloom, who went with Cora over the Phillies’ integrative baseball performance director Sam Fuld.  Definitely read Speier’s piece for the full account.

Reactions To Kim Ng Hiring

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The Miami Marlins set baseball aflutter with their momentous hiring of Kim Ng as their general manager. Accolades have poured in for Ng, who becomes the first woman and the first Asian-American to hold the position of GM. Those diminishing the gravity of this hire have been appropriately shouted down, like the Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli does via Twitter here, but on the whole, the response has been overwhelmingly positive.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal goes back to Ng’s beginnings in baseball, speaking with former big-league exec Dan Evans, who hired her as an intern when she was 21 years old. From her first time leading an arbitration hearing, to her recruitment by the league offices, to Evans’ hiring of Ng for a second time, the former Dodgers’ GM speaks glowingly of Ng and her readiness to take on the leadership of a ballclub. Said Evans (per Rosenthal):

Part of the reason she’s going to be great is because perseverance is one of her stronger character assets. It’s going to allow her to recognize that maybe it didn’t happen in the speed she would have liked. But has there ever been a more qualified person on the first day on the job? I can’t remember one.

“The Marlins didn’t hire her as a woman. They hired her because she’s the most qualified person for the job. In my mind, she has been a number of times. The ownership groups who interviewed her just weren’t ready for whatever reason. I’m thrilled about what the Marlins did. As the father of a couple of daughters, I always want that person who is going to shatter a ceiling to be ready for the opportunity, because there is enormous pressure to be that first person. She doesn’t have the ability to fail in some areas that a guy would. There is going to be far more attention. She’s not only ready, but she has been ready. They hired the best and most qualified person who also happens to be the first female general manager. It’s a great statement for the game and the progression of our society.”

MLB.com’s Anne Rogers provides a number of reactions to Ng’s hiring. In terms of the importance this hiring has for the league and for women, Rachel Balkovec, a Yankees Minor League hitting coach said this (per Rogers):

It changes the conversation from, ‘Oh it’s never been done,’ to, ‘Oh, well, Kim’s doing it so you can do it. With Jeter, I think that’s important, too, because it’s like, ‘Well, if he can make that decision, somebody who has that much respect in the game, anybody can make the decision.’ It changes the conversation and the idea that people have about what a GM looks like. The importance really just can’t be overstated.”

Jeter’s relationship with Ng goes back to her time as an assistant GM with the Yankees from 1998 until 2001. That Jeter knows Ng so well goes a long way in instilling confidence in her abilities to steer the Marlins in the right direction. The presumption of skepticism, to be clear, has everything to do with the usual skepticism that goes with being a new GM. For Jeter and for those who know Ng, however, there isn’t a hint of doubt that she was the right hire.

Ng is described by those who worked for her as an attentive, gracious, and measured leader. For example, she got players with the Dodgers to call Evans to thank him when they clinched a division title, even though Evans had been fired before the start of the season, writes Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. That kind of attention and compassion goes a long way in a business requiring cold calculations that dispatch players to-and-fro without their say-so.

For all the affirmations of her character, Ng was hired because the Marlins believe she’s the right person to bring a championship back to Miami. That, too, is Ng’s goal. Per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, Ng says:

This challenge is one I don’t take lightly. When I got into this business, it seemed unlikely a woman would lead a Major League team, but I am dogged in the pursuit of my goals. My goal is now to bring championship baseball to Miami. I am both humbled and eager to continue building the winning culture our fans expect and deserve.”

AL East Notes: Rays, Red Sox, Rich Hill

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Participation in the postseason usually garners a significant revenue bump for qualifying teams, which made it particularly painful for the small-market Rays to miss out on the revenue from 10 home games in 2020. Not only did the Rays lose that potential revenue because of coronavirus, but this year’s playoffs actually cost them money, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. They’re also missing out on their usual revenue-sharing check, as well as, obviously, attendance revenues, notes Topkin. It’s going to have an affect on Rays’ roster decisions this winter. That could mean smaller cost-saving moves like non-tendering Hunter Renfroe, or it could mean more impactful moves like dealing core players Kevin Kiermaier or Blake Snell. Rays GM Erik Neander is likely to be active exploring the trade market, but that’s nothing new for Tampa.

  • Rich Hill finished a successful one-year stint in Minnesota with a 3.03 ERA/3.88 FIP across 8 starts totaling 38 2/3 innings with 7.2 K/9 to 4.0 BB/9. It’s those last two numbers that might trouble the 40-year-old Hill. From 2017 to 2019, Hill posted 10.68 K/9 to 2.97 BB/9 with the Dodgers. Still, Hill was largely effective in 2020 by keeping the ball in the ballpark. But he didn’t accomplish his primary goal: winning a World Series. Hill has only appeared in five postseasons throughout his 16-year career, and he’s never won a World Series. In choosing his next team, writes WEEI’s Rob Bradford, Hill’s primary calculus is playing the odds and trying to find a place to contribute that gives him the best chance of winning a World Series.
  • That said, Hill hasn’t ruled out joining his hometown Red Sox, per Bradford. Hill does offer an assessment of Boston’s needs this offseason, saying, “Bullpen. Work on the bullpen. I think the lineup is good. Get everybody back. Obviously getting Sale back is huge. Eddie [Rodriguez], having him come back, being healthy. And Nathan [Eovaldi]. Those are three really, really, really good guys.” It’ll be tough sledding for the Red Sox in the AL East, though returning Sale and Rodriguez to the rotation would be a healthy start.

MLB Planning For Fan Attendance In 2021

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Commissioner Rob Manfred took a judicious approach to allowing fans into stadiums in 2020, and it’s hard to argue that it wasn’t the right strategy. MLB didn’t allow fans into stadiums until the Championship Series, and even then they limited entries. With rigorous testing and strict protocols, MLB went 54 days without a positive test before Justin Turner tested positive for COVID-19 during game six of the World Series. The NFL, in their struggle to contain the virus, is proving the significance of MLB’s achievement in that regard.

There’s a new plan for next season, however. Commissioner Manfred believes that the lack of live baseball diminished interest in the sport and affected revenues beyond the obvious loss of ticket sales. Specifically, MLB estimates that 40% of their overall revenue ties directly to the presence of fans at live games, per the Athletic’s Evan Drellich. Even in a limited capacity, fans at ballgames in 2021 could help keep audience engaged throughout the season and into its endgame: the playoffs.

Drellich provides some Nielson ratings to quantify the drop in postseason viewership. Both the Championship Series and the World Series saw ~30% drop in viewership from the previous season.

Of course, there are many challenges ahead for Commissioner Manfred and MLB. Cases of coronavirus are at an all-time high, and though the winter has long been projected to be particularly rough, the current rate of infection in places that Wisconsin is worse than expected. Whether the nation can get control of the situation before March and April remains very much unclear. Manfred does note that the allowance of fan attendance can only move forward with approval from local health officials.

They will have the experience of the 2020 season to help them along, of course. The couple of breakouts early in the season helped MLB to narrow their focus to containing the spread of the virus while simply allowing for changes to the schedule. Regional play also helped contain outbreaks for MLB, though it’s unclear right now if a similar approach would be taken over a full season – or even if MLB plans on having a “full” 162-game season in 2021.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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After the Reds earned their first playoff berth since 2013, their offseason began with the surprise resignation of president of baseball operations Dick Williams. General manager Nick Krall, who previously worked under Williams, is now at the helm. Krall already has a lot on his plate with the possible departure of right-handed ace Trevor Bauer, who’s now the preeminent free agent on the market after a Cy Young-winning season.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

It didn’t look as if the Reds-Bauer union was going to work out after they acquired him from the Indians leading up to the 2019 trade deadline. Bauer had an immense amount of difficulty keeping runs off the board in the wake of the deal, evidenced by the bloated 6.39 ERA he put up in his 56 1/3-inning Reds debut.

While Bauer didn’t make an ideal first impression on the Reds, there was a 180-degree turnaround in 2020, in which the 29-year-old recorded a 1.73 ERA/2.88 FIP with 12.33 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 73 frames. His pitching was instrumental in getting the Reds back to the playoffs, but the problem is that excellence could lead him out of Cincinnati. Williams said before he stepped down that the team would do all it could to keep Bauer, but he also stated that he’s unsure how the Reds’ payroll will shape up in 2021 in as a result of the pandemic. Krall said Friday the team and Bauer haven’t had “substantial” contract talks.

If it’s any consolation for the Reds, they’ll at least get some compensation if Bauer does leave. They made the no-brainer decision to issue him an $18.9MM qualifying offer, which he summarily rejected.

The good news for the Reds is that a rotation devoid of Bauer and fellow free agent Anthony DeSclafani would not be a lost cause. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle should once again comprise 60 percent of the group. Wade Miley had a rough, injury-shortened season, but he’s under contract for another year and should get a chance to rebound. It’s unclear how the Reds will fill the other spot in their rotation, though reliever Michael Lorenzen seems poised to get the opportunity to win the job. Tejay Antone could join Lorenzen in competing. Otherwise, free agency is pretty stacked with established arms (Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, Corey Kluber, James Paxton and Adam Wainwright are some of them). The trade market should be led by the Rangers’ Lance Lynn and the Pirates’ Joe Musgrove.

Bauer’s situation aside, the main question the Reds have to answer this offseason may be at shortstop. Indeed, Krall admitted Friday that the position “would be something you’d like to address.”

Freddy Galvis was a useful piece for the club from 2019-20, but he’s now a free agent. That leaves Jose Garcia, 22, as the Reds’ No. 1 at the position. Garcia is a promising prospect, but he never played above High-A before this year. It showed during a major league debut in which Garcia hit a woeful .194/.206/.194 line with no home runs and a wRC+ of 3 across 68 plate appearances. He seems to need more seasoning below the majors before the Reds hand him the reins. That could point the team to free agency, where ex-Red Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons lead the way. The KBO’s Ha-Seong Kim should soon join them. The Indians’ Francisco Lindor and the Rockies’ Trevor Story could be available via trade, but it’ll be a challenge for the Reds to win a sweepstakes for either of those stars.

Besides shortstop, the Reds’ offense probably won’t face many changes over the winter. As seen above, their position player corps features a handful of guaranteed contracts that they won’t be willing or able to jettison. First baseman Joey Votto, second baseman Mike Moustakas, third baseman Eugenio Suarez and right fielder Nick Castellanos are etched in stone. The Reds also seem likely to continue with Tucker Barnhart at catcher, though they could non-tender backup Curt Casali and give his role to Tyler Stephenson. Meanwhile, they’ll have to find playing time in the outfield for the mix of Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel (unless they use him as a trade chip), Aristides Aquino and Brian Goodwin. Granted, the Reds are probably going to non-tender Goodwin.

The Reds’ bullpen should also return largely the same bunch in 2021. As mentioned before, there’s a question whether Lorenzen or Antone will earn a rotation spot instead of a bullpen job. That aside, the club’s not in danger of losing anyone of great importance. Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims and Archie Bradley will all be back. Lorenzen, Antone or both will rejoin that group. That’s a nice core, but the Reds could still add at least one veteran free agent to supplement it.  Liam Hendriks, Trevor May, Brad Hand, Blake Treinen and Trevor Rosenthal are the leading relievers looking for work. If they’re out of the Reds’ price range, the likes of Mark Melancon, Jake McGee, Brandon Kintzler and Shane Greene are a few of many who could make for sensible targets.

2020 didn’t include a postseason victory for the Reds, whom the Braves swept in the wild-card round, and it’s now probable that Cincy will see the head of its starting staff depart. Even without Bauer, though, this is still a respectable-looking team and one that could make a return to the playoffs next year if Krall finds a way to address the few glaring holes on the roster.

Rockies Sign Jose Briceno

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The Rockies are signing catcher José Briceño to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The 28-year-old backstop has 134 major league plate appearances on his resume.

Briceño broke into pro ball with the Rockies as an international amateur back in 2009. After five years in the Colorado system, he was traded to the Braves, who shipped him to the Angels a year later. Briceño made it to the big leagues with Los Angeles in 2018, putting up a .239/.299/.385 line as a rookie. Despite that fairly respectable showing, he’s only picked up six big league plate appearances since then.

Owner of a .251/.286/.464 mark in parts of four Triple-A seasons, Briceño joins a Rockies’ catching mix that has room for improvement. Neither Tony Wolters nor Elias Díaz has offered much at the plate in recent seasons, while Dom Nuñez only has 43 career plate appearances under his belt.

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