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Braves Re-Sign Josh Tomlin

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1:36pm: The Braves have formally announced the move.

12:48pm: Tomlin’s deal actually comes with a $1.25MM guarantee, Rosenthal now tweets. That indicates a $1MM salary next year plus the $250K buyout on the $1.25MM option for 2022.

11:40am: The Braves have agreed to a new contract that will bring free-agent righty Josh Tomlin back to Atlanta, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The Meister Sports client will receive a $1MM guarantee, and his contract also contains a $1.25MM club option for the 2022 season. That option comes with a $250K buyout, suggesting that Tomlin’s 2021 salary checks in at $750K.

Tomlin, 36, joined the Braves in 2019 after a nine-year run with the Indians and has been a steady swingman for manager Brian Snitker over the past two seasons. Tomlin has appeared in 68 games for the Braves, starting on six occasions, and totaled 119 frames of 4.08 ERA ball with 6.6 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 1.51 HR/9 and a 35 percent ground-ball rate in that time. The right-hander’s heater sits in the 88-89 mph range, but he’s managed to succeed by avoiding hard contact at an above-average clip and capitalizing on some of the best command in the game.

It’s likely that Tomlin will return to that long relief/swingman role in what should again be a solid Braves relief corps. Atlanta surprisingly bought out Darren O’Day’s club option for the 2021 season and is also in line to lose both Mark Melancon and Shane Greene to free agency. However, the Braves still have Chris Martin, Will Smith and a seemingly resurgent Tyler Matzek to anchor the ’pen, and general manager Alex Anthopoulos figures to add to that group in the coming months.

Lorenzen Expects To Pitch Out Of Reds’ Rotation In 2021

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Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson suggested in late September that right-hander Michael Lorenzen had “put himself in the conversation” for a rotation job in 2021. Lorenzen echoed that idea and perhaps took things a step further today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, telling hosts Jim Duquette and Jon Morosi that plans to report to Spring Training as a starting pitcher (Twitter link, with audio).

“My expectation is to show up as a starter and to finish the season as a starter,” said Lorenzen. “That’s where my mind is at, and I’m excited for it.”

The 28-year-old Lorenzen (29 in January) isn’t exactly a stranger to the starting rotation, having started 21 games as a rookie back in 2015. He made a pair of September starts for the Reds in 2020 as well, although he spent the entirety of the 2016-19 seasons working in relief as one of the team’s top setup men.

Lorenzen is a hyperathletic player who has been utilized in two-way fashion by the Reds. He’s an oft-used pinch-hitter and pinch-runner who carries a career .235/.284/.432 batting line and seven home runs through 146 plate appearances. Lorenzen is also 5-for-7 in career stolen base attempts and has graded out as an above-average defensive outfielder. The Reds think highly enough of his glove and bat that they started him as their center fielder six times in 2019,

Things haven’t panned out for Lorenzen in the rotation to this point in his career, though his only real chance came back in that 2015 rookie effort. His two starts in 2020 netted positive results: three runs on seven hits and two walks with 14 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings against the Pirates and White Sox.

That Lorenzen will be given this opportunity is also notable given the potential greater implications for the Reds. Cincinnati could see both Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani depart via free agency, and plugging Lorenzen into one of those spots would make for an affordable alternative solution. He’s arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter and projected to earn a modest bump to a $4MM salary. A successful move to the rotation would certainly bode well for the right-hander’s earning power next winter, too.

The Reds have suggested that they’ll do everything in their power to retain Bauer, the clear-cut top arm on the free-agent market this winter, but it’s widely expected that he’ll land a more lucrative deal elsewhere. If that indeed proves to be the case, the Reds will head into 2021 with a still-strong group of Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Wade Miley atop their starting staff.

Lorenzen won’t simply be penciled into the starting mix, but he joins Tyler Mahle and Tejay Antone (among others) as potential in-house options to round out the group. It still wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Reds pick up a veteran starter this winter — particularly if Bauer departs — but a role change for Lorenzen could play a role both the club’s rotation and bullpen pursuits this winter.

Kevin Gausman Weighing Multi-Year Offers

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Free-agent righty Kevin Gausman has until 5pm ET today to decide whether he plans to accept the Giants’ $18.9MM qualifying offer or reject it in favor of fully testing free agency. While Marcus Stroman’s decision to accept the Mets’ QO led to natural speculation that Gausman would take the same route — both are represented by agent Brodie Scoffield — Gausman isn’t a lock to do so. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Gausman has already received multi-year offers and is weighing those against the QO. The Giants are among the teams to have made a multi-year offer, Rosenthal adds.

It stands to reason that any multi-year offers for Gausman check in south of the QO’s average annual value, but historically speaking, free agents have been willing to sacrifice some AAV in order to secure a larger overall guarantee. If Gausman were to receive three-year offers in the $13-15MM range, for instance, that could certainly prompt him to forgo the heftier one-year payday.

The alternative, of course, is to take that $18.9MM sum, hope to bolster his stock with another strong year and return to free agency next winter without the burden of a qualifying offer; players can only receive one qualifying offer in their career, under the terms of the current collective bargaining agreement.

It should be emphasized that Gausman needn’t make a final decision on a multi-year contract today. All he’s required to do by this afternoon is simply accept or reject the qualifying offer. If he rejects, he could still take the coming days, weeks or even months to explore the market in hopes of securing a larger multi-year offer than the ones he has already received. The fact that Stroman is no longer on the market is surely a notable factor. Gausman was already among the market’s more appealing free-agent starters, and one of the names alongside him in the second tier (behind Trevor Bauer) is now off the board.

Bauer is in a class of his own this winter, but Gausman is arguably the best remaining option after him. Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi join him as solid mid-rotation options, and the market also features several high-ceiling veterans looking to rebound from injury-marred campaigns (e.g. Corey Kluber, James Paxton). Charlie Morton could be deemed the second-best arm on the market, but he’s limiting himself geographically and is expected to command a short-term deal given his age.

Marcus Stroman Accepts Qualifying Offer

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Marcus Stroman has announced on Twitter that he will accept the Mets’ qualifying offer. Metsmerized first reported that he planned to do so (Twitter link). By accepting, Stroman will return to Queens on a one-year deal worth $18.9MM.

Marcus Stroman | Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Stroman indicated that new owner Steve Cohen’s passion and commitment to winning played a role in his decision, writing: “After watching the presser, I’m beyond excited to play for you sir. I could feel the excitement and passion you’re going to bring daily. Let’s go be great!”

Stroman’s decision to accept the qualifying offer removes arguably the No. 2 free-agent starting pitcher from the market this winter. It’s of note that he’ll accept his QO as well, given that he and fellow QO recipient Kevin Gausman are both represented by agent Brodie Scoffield of Klutch Sports. Every pitcher is different, of course, and Scoffield has had the past 10 days to explore the different markets for both pitchers, but it still could offer a portent of what lies ahead for Gausman.

For the Mets, Stroman’s decision takes an immediate bite out of their 2021 payroll, but Stroman at one year and $18.9MM nonetheless represents a solid value for a club expecting to increase spending under its new owner. With Noah Syndergaard on the mend from Tommy John surgery and Steven Matz looking like a non-tender candidate, the Mets were thin on options beyond ace Jacob deGrom and impressive rookie David Peterson.

Stroman now gives the Mets a solid mid-rotation option with a strong track record to slot into the second or third spot in that rotation. He didn’t pitch in 2020 due to both a calf injury and an eventual season opt-out, but the longtime Blue Jays hurler has fared well in a hitter-friendly home park and division for the majority of his career.

From 2014-19, Stroman put together a 3.76 ERA and 3.64 FIP with averages of 7.4 strikeouts, 2.6 walks and 0.83 home runs per nine innings pitched. He’s one of the game’s foremost ground-ball pitchers, inducing grounders on 56.6 percent of balls put in play against him, which helps him to limit the long ball but is also cause for some concern given the Mets’ poor infield defense. Of course, returning president Sandy Alderson and whoever he hires to fill out his front office will have ample opportunity to put together a stronger defensive unit this winter should they choose.

Stroman joins deGrom ($33.5MM), Robinson Cano ($24MM), Jeurys Familia ($11MM), Dellin Betances ($6.8MM) and Brad Brach ($2.075MM) as the sixth player on a guaranteed contract currently on the books for the Mets. (The Mariners are paying $3.75MM of that Cano money, and $13.5MM of deGrom’s salary is deferred — although he’s also owed $10MM of a deferred signing bonus this coming January.)

Add in a notable arbitration class headlined by Syndergaard, Michael Conforto, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis among many others, and the Mets’ commitments could quickly jump north of $140MM. Still, that’s a pretty tepid number for a club whose owner just proclaimed: “…this is a major market team and it should have a budget commensurate with that.”

Cohen naturally added some caution, noting that his Mets will not spend “like drunken sailors,” but it’s clear that even with Stroman on board at a relatively premium rate, the Mets have plenty of room in the budget to continue adding pieces. That becomes all the more if Matz and other borderline arbitration candidates are cut loose, as is widely expected. Most in the industry expect the Mets to be in the mix for the market’s top free agent, with Citi Field being an oft-speculated landing spot for J.T. Realmuto and George Springer alike.

NPB/KBO Notes: Ohno, Alcantara, Romero, Bour

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Left-hander Yudai Ohno announced this week that he plans to stay with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi now adds that the star southpaw inked a three-year pact with the Dragons. Ohno has drawn some MLB interest, but it seems the 32-year-old will stay in Japan for the long term. Given that he’ll be 35 by the time this contract draws to a close, it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll ever pursue an MLB opportunity. The lefty was masterful in 2020, completing 10 of his 20 starts en route to a 1.82 ERA and a 148-to-23 K/BB ratio in 148 2/3 frames. Sports Info Solutions’ Will Hoefer profiled Ohno (among others) following the 2019 season, noting a three-pitch mix — fastball, slider, splitter — with velocity that runs up to 94 mph.

A few more notes from NPB…

  • Former A’s righty Raul Alcantara was named the Choi Dong-won Award winner in the Korea Baseball Organization this week, writes Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency. Alcantara follows Josh Lindblom, who won the award in both 2018 and 2019, as the third straight former big leaguer to win the KBO’s Cy Young equivalent. The 27-year-old right-hander logged a pristine 2.54 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and just 1.4 BB/9 across 31 starts, totaling 198 2/3 innings of work on the whole. The 2020 campaign was Alcantara’s second in the KBO and first with the Doosan Bears, the team for which Lindblom previously starred. It’s not clear at this point whether Alcantara will explore a return to the Majors or look to further build his stock overseas. This year was a breakout for Alcantara, who pitched to a 4.01 ERA with the KT Wiz in 2019. He played this season on a one-year, $700K deal and should command a healthy raise from the Bears or another club if he wishes to return for a third season in the KBO.
  • Former Mariners outfielder Stefen Romero has drawn some interest from Major League clubs, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports (via Twitter). The 32-year-old last appeared in the Majors with Seattle but has spent the past four seasons in Japan: 2017-19 with the Orix Buffaloes and 2020 with the Rakuten Golden Eagles. The right-handed-hitting Romero has put together a .272/.354/.539 slash with 24 homers, 19 doubles and a pair of triples in 2020 and owns an overall .269/.337/.505 slash in four NPB seasons. Those numbers include a down year in ’18, but Romero has produced at a high level over the past two years. It’s not clear whether a 32-year-old corner-only outfielder can parlay that showing into a big league deal, but it’s at least worth remembering that he’s an option for clubs seeking low-cost outfield help. Romero could probably get another solid contract in Japan, of course, so it’s far from a given that he’ll return to North American ball.
  • Justin Bour isn’t expected to return to the Hanshin Tigers for a second season, per the Japan Times. The 32-year-old former Marlins/Phillies/Angels first baseman signed a one-year deal worth about $2.55MM with the Tigers last offseason but didn’t quite meet the club’s expectations, slashing .243/.338/.422 with 17 homers and eight doubles in 379 trips to the plate. The six-year big league veteran carries a career .262/.345/.490 slash against right-handed pitching in the Majors, so he could reemerge as a depth option for a club at first base or designated hitter this winter.

Angels Down To Five GM Finalists

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Nov. 11: Braves assistant general manager Perry Minasian is the fifth finalist for the job, Rosenthal tweets.

Nov. 10: The Los Angeles Angels are closing in on their next general manager. Per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter), the Angels have narrowed the field to a final five candidates. Granted, the field was said to have narrowed to three as of a couple of days ago, but regardless of how many remain in contention, Rosenthal adds that a decision could be made by the end of the week.

The known candidates are Cubs senior VP Jason McLeod, Diamondbacks assistant GMs Jared Porter and Amiel Sawdaye, and Mariners assistant GM Justin Hollander. The unknown fifth candidate fits a similar mold as an assistant GM type, per Rosenthal. Porter and McLeod both connect back to manager Joe Maddon and his time with the Cubs, while Hollander spent 9 years in the Angels’ front office before moving to the Mariners, notes Rosenthal.

As many as 14 different candidates were said to have interviewed for the role, most notably Michael Hill, formerly of the Marlins. Dave Dombrowski was rumored to be a consideration, but he proved unavailable for front office roles at this time. The Angels have apparently chosen to go the promotion route, selecting someone without significant prior experience in the role.

DJ LeMahieu To Reject Qualifying Offer

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As expected, DJ LeMahieu plans on rejecting the $18.9MM qualifying offer and testing the open market, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The deadline to make a decision is tomorrow at 5 ET.

Given that LeMahieu posted and MVP-type season in 2020, it’s no surprise that he’ll head to the open market seeking a multi-year deal. The two-time batting champ has now won a batting title in each league, and he’s primed to cash in for more than the two-years, $24MM that he made last time he was a free agent. The Yankees certainly got their money’s worth over the past two seasons, as LeMahieu slashed .336/.386/.536 with 36 home runs over 871 plate appearances.

Despite the expected for a depressed free agent market, LeMahieu figures to be one of the rare players who will be able to transcend the coronavirus-driven downturn. The 32-year-old not only brings a top-of-the-line bat, but he’s a versatile defensive player who would fit on most any roster. That he happens to get rave reviews for his character and clubhouse presence is only icing on the cake.

As for the rest of this year’s qualifying offer crop, MLB Insider Jon Heyman suggested on his Big Time Baseball podcast that Kevin Gausman is the only relative sure thing to accept his offer from the Giants. Heyman couldn’t quite decide on Marcus Stroman, though he at least thinks there’s a possibility that Stroman would accept. That seems unlikely, given his position as perhaps the top starting pitcher on the market, but a decision will be made by tomorrow evening.

Quick Hits: Cardinals, Molina, Minor League Affiliate Changes

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Four teams, including the Cardinals, are in on Yadier Molina, per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Cardinals still seem the safest bet to re-sign their veteran catcher. The Cardinals have been the most eager, and Molina likewise for the Cardinals, per the Post-Dispatch. It’s frankly difficult to picture Molina in any uniform but Cardinal red, but stranger things have happened, especially in the time of COVID. The 38-year-old backstop has 17 seasons under his belt in St. Louis having appeared in 2,025 games with a triple slash of .281/.333/.404. Now, let’s check in on some affiliate changes…

  • The Columbia Fireflies learned during owner Steve Cohen’s introductory press conference that they are no longer among the Mets’ minor league affiliates, per the Athletic’s Tim Britton (Twitter thread). The Fireflies anticipate joining another organization’s affiliates, though where exactly they’ll end up is very much up in the air for now, as is the case for many minor league teams. As Britton notes, the Florida State League is moving from High-A to Low-A, which is sure to cause some upheaval among those minor league affiliates.
  • Rochester, New York will no longer house the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate, writes La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Popular local team the St. Paul Saints of the independent league are being looked at as a potential replacement – one of two independent league teams that are likely to join minor league baseball. The Twins have spent the past 17 seasons (not including 2020) with Rochester as an affiliate, though it’s hard to argue that St. Paul doesn’t make more sense simply from a logistics standpoint. Wichita and Sioux Falls are also being considered, per Neal.

Latest From Scott Boras On Paxton, Sanchez

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Scott Boras is out on the campaign trail to shill for his clients in the early days of free agency. Boras is the most famous agent in the game, and one of the best in the business at making sure his clients get paid. He’s a salesman, and salesmen gotta sell.

Boras tells MLB Network’s Jon Morosi that James Paxton will soon throw for talent evaluators. Morosi reports (via Twitter) that Paxton has been working to strengthen his “lumbar region” after back surgery in February. Morosi also notes that Boras says, “There’s a great deal of interest in [Paxton].”

There’s sure to be interest in Paxton as a former front-line southpaw potentially signable on a short-term prove-it-type deal coming off a season lost to injury. 2020 was a tough year for The Big Maple, who in 5 starts went 1-1 with a 6.64 ERA, though a 4.37 FIP suggests more time on the diamond might have stabilized that bloated ERA. In his first year with the Yankees, Paxton went 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA/3.86 FIP across 150 2/3 innings, which more closely matches the kind of production we’ve come to expect from Paxton. Health – or lack thereof – is Paxton’s Achilles heel. The 32-year-old has never thrown more than 161 innings while averaging just 142 innings per season from 2016 to 2019. In today’s day and age, however, that kind of volume isn’t likely to bother teams as much as it might have in the past.

Elsewhere on the free agency campaign trail, former Astros and Blue Jays right-hander Aaron Sanchez is showing off his high-spin fastball for a number of teams this winter, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Boras, who reps Sanchez, predicts unequivocally that Sanchez will be a starting pitcher in 2021. In October, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote about Sanchez throwing for about 20 teams, which was the first we’d seen of him since missing all of 2020 after undergoing surgery to address a tear in his right shoulder capsule. The possibility of Sanchez out of the bullpen was an intriguing idea, but Boras is positioning him as a starter.

When Houston acquired Sanchez before the 2019 trade deadline, the pairing seemed like a good fit because of a high-spin hook – and high spin rates being somewhat of a specialty for the Astros. Sanchez’s curve ranked in the 91st percentile for spin rate. In his first start, in fact, Sanchez threw 6 hit-less innings as part of a 4-man no-hitter against the Mariners. Unfortunately, injuries ended his season after just 4 starts with Houston. The 28-year-old has a career record of 34-33 across 150 appearances (96 starts) totaling 589 ⅔ innings with a 3.98 ERA/4.40 FIP, 1.81 K/BB rate, and 9.0 career rWAR.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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After earning a third straight playoff berth, the Athletics are in for an offseason of change. Longtime front office head Billy Beane might be on his way out after two-plus decades of success, while the roster could lose a handful of key free agents.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

The A’s have never been known as a high-spending team, but this offseason could be especially difficult in the wake of a pandemic-shortened year. The timing is terrible for an Oakland club that’s loaded with noteworthy free agents, including in its middle infield. Marcus Semien has been the A’s primary shortstop since 2015, while they acquired second baseman Tommy La Stella from the division-rival Angels before the Aug. 31 trade deadline. La Stella made a wonderful impression on the organization during his short time there, but whether the team will make a serious effort to re-sign him is unknown.

With Semien and La Stella potentially on the way out, there’s no greater need for the A’s than in their middle infield. They already opted against giving Semien a one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer off a somewhat disappointing season, leaving him unfettered heading into free agency. The A’s have made it clear that they hope to retain Semien, but it’s hard to imagine them outbidding the rest of the field. If Semien exits, where would that leave Oakland? The club could plug in Chad Pinder, but he has minimal major league experience at shortstop, and it isn’t likely to spend enough to sign Didi Gregorius or Andrelton Simmons in free agency. Similarly, a trade for Francisco Lindor or Trevor Story looks improbable. They might be a suitor for Korea’s Ha-Seong Kim, a 24-year-old who’s a candidate for a reasonably priced contract over the long haul. Otherwise, the A’s may be looking at someone like Freddy Galvis, who would only be a Band-Aid at the position.

The A’s love La Stella at the keystone. Again, though, are they going to spend to sign him? La Stella shouldn’t cost that much (something in the two-year, $14MM range sounds realistic). But if the A’s don’t retain La Stella, they’ll have some other options in free agency, including Galvis, Kolten Wong, Jonathan Schoop, Jason Kipnis, Cesar Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez. That isn’t the most exciting bunch, but most or all of them should be within the A’s price range, and at least some look like passable starters. Of course, the A’s do have Tony Kemp, Vimael Machin and Sheldon Neuse in the fold if they decide to stick with options who are already under team control.

Aside from potentially the middle infield, the A’s don’t seem as if they’ll be all that busy on the position player front this offseason. The Matts (third baseman Chapman and first baseman Olson) have their spots locked up, as do catcher Sean Murphy and designated hitter Khris Davis. The outfield could lose Robbie Grossman to free agency, but Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Stephen Piscotty and Seth Brown are still in place.

Turning to the pitching side, Oakland is going to have to make moves, as it may see a few veteran hurlers depart. The rotation could say goodbye to free agents Mike Fiers and Mike Minor, though four-fifths of it does look set with Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo and Frankie Montas staying in the mix. That still leaves one open spot, which could go to prized prospect A.J. Puk if he battles back from a couple years of arm problems (including left shoulder surgery in September). Otherwise, Daulton Jefferies and James Kaprielian may be the A’s most realistic picks from within the organization.

Fortunately for Oakland, if it decides to search for a starter from outside, it will have several affordable choices. Free agency is loaded with veterans who should sign short-term deals, including Fiers, Minor, Cole Hamels, Mike Leake, and ex-Athletics Rich Hill, Jon Lester and Brett Anderson. It’s a long list that extends well beyond those names. On the trade front, Lance Lynn (Rangers) and Joe Musgrove (Pirates) are among possibilities the A’s could fit in from a financial standpoint.

While most spots in the A’s rotation are spoken for, the bullpen is facing a great deal of uncertainty at the outset of the offseason. Closer Liam Hendriks was one of the premier relievers in the league from 2019-20, but he’s a free agent. Oakland didn’t issue him a qualifying offer, so he figures to walk away without the team getting any compensation. Yusmeiro Petit, Joakim Soria and T.J. McFarland are alongside Hendriks on the open market. That quartet gave Oakland 90 innings in 2020, and the only member who recorded below-average numbers was McFarland. It’s going to be tough to replace that group, though an A’s bullpen that was elite this past season still has some strong holdovers in Jake Diekman, J.B. Wendelken, Lou Trivino, Jordan Weems and Burch Smith (if Smith recovers from a flexor strain). It’s also not out of the realm of possibility they’ll re-sign any of Petit, Soria or McFarland, who aren’t going to command big deals on the open market, or add at least one of the many available relievers in free agency. Even Puk could slide into a prominent bullpen role next year if he’s healthy and doesn’t secure a rotation spot.

This isn’t going to be the most thrilling offseason for the A’s, whose front office and roster could combine to lose a few important figures. The A’s have consistently been in the hunt in recent years despite their small budget, though, and there is still quite a bit of talent on hand for the reigning AL West champions. However, Beane (if he doesn’t go elsewhere) and general manager David Forst may have to pull off some shrewd moves in the coming months to keep Oakland at the head of its division in 2021.

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