Mariners Notes: Haniger, Rodriguez, Kirby, Bryant
Mitch Haniger‘s sensational rebound on the heels of four surgeries was one of the highlights in a generally exciting 2021 season for Mariners fans. The now-31-year-old Haniger belted a career-high 39 home runs in a career-high 691 plate appearances, announcing his return from a gruesome sequence of injuries with authority and cementing himself in the heart of Seattle’s order — at least for now.
Haniger is set to become a free agent next offseason, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times takes a lengthy look at his status within the organization, noting that it’s quite possible this is Haniger’s final year with the club. The Mariners, to this point, haven’t had much interest in an extension due both to Haniger’s recent injury woes and the fact that he’ll be 32 in the first season of a new deal. It’s always possible that stance could change and talks could pick up when the lockout lifts, but barring that, Haniger would play out the current season and reach the market next winter, at which point all 30 teams would have the ability to sign him.
Further complicating the Haniger situation, of course, is the enviable depth the Mariners have in the outfield. While Haniger is entrenched in right field for the 2022 season, the Mariners hope that can be the long-term home for top prospect Julio Rodriguez, whom most outlets peg among the game’s top five to ten overall prospects. Seattle also has Jarred Kelenic, who struggled early in his debut campaign before a much stronger finish, 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis and former top-100 prospect Taylor Trammell as potential long-term options — to say nothing of current part-time options like Jake Fraley and Dylan Moore.
Rodriguez, in particular, is on the cusp of the Majors after hitting a combined .347/.441/.560 between Class-A Advanced and Double-A this past season. The Athletic’s Corey Brock takes a look the immediate outlook for Rodriguez and three other Mariners prospects, noting that there’s at least a small chance that Rodriguez could play his way onto the Opening Day roster. As Brock notes, president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto has stated that there’s “no unrealistic expectation” for someone as talented as the 21-year-old Rodriguez.
Of course, Rodriguez has yet to play in Triple-A, and Mariners fans in particular will recall that the organization kept Kelenic in the minors to open the 2021 campaign under similar circumstances. That was a controversial decision, due largely to comments made by former Mariners CEO Kevin Mather, though Kelenic’s early struggles and his subsequent option back to Triple-A Tacoma at least made the Mariners’ decision look justifiable.
Heading into the 2022 season, Seattle could reasonably look to Haniger, Kelenic, Lewis, Fraley and newcomer Adam Frazier in the outfield (the latter depending heavily on what type of infielder or infielders Seattle adds in trade or free agency). There’s no urgent need for Rodriguez to break camp, but a big enough showing in whatever limited exhibition games we get could make his future a bigger talking point.
Also knocking on the door to the big leagues is 24-year-old right-hander George Kirby — a consensus top-100 prospect himself who’s expected to make his big league debut this coming season. He’s yet to pitch in Triple-A and only logged 26 frames in Double-A last season, so that’ll quite likely come later in the season — and Brock suggests it’d likely happen only if a legitimate rotation spot is opened due to injury or other circumstances. Kirby pitched in just 67 2/3 innings last season, and electric as they were, he could still use some further development.
In some respects, Rodriguez and Kirby are similar to last year’s ballyhooed duo of Kelenic and righty Logan Gilbert. Both debuted with huge fanfare, and while there were plenty of highlights (particularly down the stretch), there were plenty of ups and downs as well. Still, Seattle reliever Paul Sewald mentioned both Kelenic and Gilbert in an interview with Stacy Rost and Jake Heaps on 710 ESPN (YouTube link), pointing to both as potential examples of service-time manipulation when explaining the MLBPA’s stance in the ongoing labor talks.
Sewald, a close friend of Kris Bryant, pointed back to the longtime Cubs slugger’s delayed debut as the most egregious incident of service-time manipulation but also used the 2021 Mariners to rhetorically raise another aspect of the service-time debate.
“If we had Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic from Opening Day, are we two games better and maybe we make the playoffs?” Sewald said. “I don’t know. I don’t know that for a fact. I’m just saying, if we weren’t looking at service-time manipulation, could they make an impact where you [instead of] finishing one game back, two games back, you maybe make the playoffs? It’s disappointing.”
Sewald certainly isn’t claiming Seattle would’ve been postseason-bound had both players debuted earlier — Kelenic certainly didn’t hit the ground running, after all — but it’s another aspect of the puzzle to consider. A more prominent example of that could be the 2010 Braves, who did make the decision to carry Jason Heyward on the Opening Day roster and ultimately edged out the Padres by one game for a Wild Card berth. Had they withheld Heyward, who hit .277/.393/.456 and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting, they could well have missed the postseason. There are obvious business reasons for teams to keep players down, and those who choose to do so aren’t necessarily doing anything wrong and are simply using the current system to their long-term advantage. Still, Sewald’s general point, outside of any specific examples, is one piece of the issue that isn’t always discussed.
Of greater note to Mariners fans, perhaps, is Sewald’s mention that he and Bryant are close friends. The Las Vegas natives are college teammates who’ve known each other since high school, and Sewald acknowledged that he’s lobbied for a reunion.
“I convinced him to go to University of San Diego with me and play with me there,” Sewald said with a laugh. “I am doing the best that I possibly can to convince him to be a Seattle Mariner for the next few years.”
Dollars and years figure to win the day whenever Bryant puts pen to paper, and Sewald’s comments are little more than anecdotal. That said, Mariners fans surely don’t mind having a close friend of Bryant on the roster who’s attempting to sell him on the team, city and fan base — all else being equal.
Read The Transcript Of Our Chat With MLB Pitcher Tyler Danish
What were you doing when you were 21 years old? I can tell you what Tyler Danish was doing…making his big league debut for the White Sox against the Royals in front of 31,183 fans at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, with Lorenzo Cain stepping into the box.
It was a quick rise to the Majors for Danish, who the White Sox drafted 55th overall in 2013 out of Durant High School in Plant City, Florida after a dominant senior season in which he was unscored upon. Danish’s dominance continued into the minors in 2014, and by 2015 he was the Southern League’s youngest starter.
To date, Danish has only had a taste of the Majors, totaling 13 innings for the White Sox from 2016-18. Even in that brief time, he added career highlights such as five shutout innings against the Tigers in ’17, and strikeouts of star players like Francisco Lindor and Victor Martinez.
In December 2018, Danish signed a minor league deal with the Mariners. After pitching six Triple-A games for the Mariners in ’19, he spent the rest of the year and 2020 pitching independent ball. In 2021, Danish worked out of the bullpen in the minors as part of the Angels organization, mostly in Triple-A. In 60 1/3 innings at that level, Danish punched out 25.8% of batters and walked just 5.8%. He’s still only 27 years old, and expects to sign with an MLB team within the next week or so.
We were thrilled when Tyler mentioned he’d be up for chatting with MLBTR readers. Click here to read the transcript of today’s chat.
Also, if you’re a current or former MLB player interested in chatting with our readers, drop us a line! It’s fun and easy and you get to choose the questions you publish and answer.
Follow The NBA Trade Deadline At Hoops Rumors
MLB lockout got you down? The NBA trade deadline is less than seven hours away, and our sister site Hoops Rumors (@HoopsRumors on Twitter) has all the latest news and rumors for each of the league’s 30 teams!
We’ve already seen several major trades in the past week, with CJ McCollum headed to the Pelicans in a seven-player trade, and the Kings shocking the basketball world by sending rising star Tyrese Haliburton to the Pacers for two-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis as part of a six-player swap.
Amid a nine-game losing streak, former MVP James Harden has reportedly grown increasingly frustrated with the Nets – will he be traded for disgruntled Sixers star Ben Simmons? Could a trade between the defending champion Bucks and the Celtics be brewing? Will the Pacers and Kings continue to reshape their rosters? The struggling Lakers are feeling urgency to make moves — will they be able to pull something off before 2:00pm CT?
For the latest updates on those stories and more, check out Hoops Rumors today! Last season saw a total of 24 in-season trades, including 16 on deadline day alone, and this season could be just as action-packed! Follow us on Facebook and Twitter – @HoopsRumors.
Trevor Story Reportedly Not Interested In Position Change
With Trevor Story still on the open market, there has been plenty of speculation about where (and how much, contract-wise) the All-Star will eventually land when the lockout is over. One of the larger factors in this discussion is whether or not a move to another position could be in the cards, should a team with an incumbent shortstop come calling about using Story as a second baseman, third baseman or perhaps even in the outfield.
From Story’s own perspective, however, he is focused on remaining at shortstop. According to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post, “from everything I’ve been told, Story doesn’t want to switch positions,” though Saunders does add the caveat that it’s possible “that could change” depending on Story’s next destination.
Given that Story has played only shortstop (and a handful of DH games) over his six big league seasons, it obviously isn’t surprising that he would prefer to remain at the position, and would want to exhaust all possibilities in remaining a shortstop before considering a move elsewhere on the diamond. As Story and his representatives at Excel Sports Management would undoubtedly point out, a position change isn’t even necessary since Story is still a top-tier defensive shortstop, with +9 Defensive Runs Saved and +3.1 UZR/150 in 2021.
While DRS and UZR/150 have generally been favorable towards Story, however, the Outs Above Average metric tells another tale. As per OAA, Story was a league-average shortstop in 2020 (0.0) and then quite subpar in 2021 (-7). Since many teams have their own in-house methods of defensive evaluation, there could be quite a bit of variance from a club to club basis on whether or not Story is still a good fit at shortstop. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reported in December that some scouts feel Story is ultimately a better second option than a shortstop over the long term, due to concerns over his throwing arm.
Divish’s report came within the context of the Mariners’ known interest in Story, and given Seattle’s expressed desire to keep J.P. Crawford at shortstop, the M’s would be one of the teams eyeing Story at other positions. The Mariners did address their second base need by acquiring Adam Frazier prior to the lockout, but theoretically, Frazier could be moved to the outfield or into a super-utility role if the M’s did add Story or another second base-capable starter.
If Story insists on remaining at shortstop, his list of potential new teams will shrink to some extent, though there are still quite a few teams (i.e. the Astros, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Yankees, Nationals, Cubs) who have clear needs at shortstop or have been linked to this offseason’s busy shortstop market in one regard or another. It’s also possible that another team might make a position switch of their own to accommodate Story — for instance, the Red Sox were known to have some interest in Story’s services, and Story is a much better defensive shortstop than Xander Bogaerts. Since Bogaerts can opt out of his contract following the 2022 season, Boston might want to get an early jump on preparing for a post-Bogaerts roster.
As much as Story would naturally want to stay at shortstop, it can’t be ruled out that the market will ultimately make that decision for him. Story’s market is complicated by several factors — the draft pick compensation attached to him via his rejection of the Rockies’ qualifying offer, Carlos Correa‘s presence as another major available shortstop, possible changes to baseball’s business model in the new CBA, the overall uncertainty of the lockout, and how wild the transactions frenzy will be when teams are finally allowed to make moves again. If the richest multi-year offers (MLBTR projected Story for six years and $126MM) are only coming from teams that want Story at another position, he might accept the move off shortstop if it’s his only path to a big payday.
On the flip side, Story might opt for something of a hedge in the form of a short-term position change. If he accepted a one-year deal to join a team as their new second baseman or third baseman, Story could re-enter the market next winter with the hopes of finally scoring that larger contract on the heels of a better platform year. It would be similar to Marcus Semien‘s tactic of taking a one-year deal from the Blue Jays last offseason, enjoying a huge 2021 season, and then signing with the Rangers for seven years and $175MM. It should be noted that Semien didn’t actually return to being a shortstop, of course, as he’ll line up at second base again since Texas also signed Corey Seager.
Still, Story might prefer his luck next offseason in a free agent market that isn’t quite as loaded as this year for premium shortstop talent. The 2022-23 class does have such prominent names as Bogaerts (if he opts out), Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, and theoretically Tim Anderson, though right now it seems very likely that the White Sox will exercise their $12.5MM club option on Anderson for 2023. As mentioned earlier, joining a team like Bogaerts’ Red Sox or even Turner’s Dodgers could be a possibility for Story if those teams feel they won’t be retaining their incumbent shortstops.
NL Notes: Brito, Cardinals, Kelly, Bradley, Rockies, Black
In a terrifying late July incident, Phillies prospect Daniel Brito collapsed during the first inning of a Triple-A game. The young infielder was rushed to a Rochester, New York hospital and details about his recovery were understandably sparse over the next few months. Matt Gelb of the Athletic provided a remarkable update on Brito’s story this morning, catching up with him, his family and members of the Philadelphia organization a bit more than six months later.
Brito suffered a brain hemorrhage, Gelb writes, the product of an arteriovenous malformation (AVM) that had been present since birth. He spent nearly two months in the hospital, half of it in a medically-induced coma and required a pair of brain surgeries. Doctors questioned at the time whether he’d be able to again perform basic life tasks, but Brito has already progressed far more quickly than expected. He’s even recently begun baseball activities, with the 24-year-old expressing a desire to continue his playing career. Gelb’s full post — which goes into detail about Brito’s condition, rehab process, and the support he’s received from family, teammates, medical staff and team personnel — is well worth a read in full. MLBTR sends our best wishes to Brito on his continued recovery.
Other news and notes from the Senior Circuit:
- As the Cardinals look for relief help post-lockout, the team is prioritizing pitchers who throw strikes, throw a sinkerball, and generate soft contact and a lot of grounders, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Goold lists several available free agents and trade targets who fit at least a couple of these parameters, and also provides some details on specific pitchers. Goold linked Joe Kelly (who pitched in St. Louis from 2012-14) to the Cardinals last week, and now adds that the club’s pre-lockout conversations with the right-hander were “initial but not aggressive.” The Cardinals hadn’t yet been in touch with Archie Bradley’s agents prior to the lockout, though Bradley is seemingly a good fit as a sinkerball pitcher who keeps the ball on the ground and doesn’t allow much hard contact.
- The Rockies tacked on a season to Bud Black’s contract yesterday, keeping their skipper in the fold through 2023. Nick Groke of the Athletic looks into that decision, writing that the organization’s faith in Black’s ability to coax the best out of their starting rotation played a key role. Black, who was also a longtime MLB pitcher and pitching coach, is well-regarded for his ability to work with young arms. Last season, Colorado starters posted a 4.77 ERA/4.44 SIERA — decent production given the extremely hitter-friendly nature of Coors Field. That said, Black and his staff could have an uphill battle in replacing Jon Gray, who signed a four-year deal with the Rangers before the lockout. Beyond the top four of Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland and Austin Gomber, Peter Lambert and Ryan Rolison look to be the current favorites to step into the final rotation spot.
MLB To Make Next Core Economics Proposal Saturday
Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have scheduled their next meeting for Saturday, reports Evan Drellich of the Athletic (Twitter links). Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweets that the league is expected to make its next proposal involving core economics.
The parties have been in a holding pattern for over a week. The union put forth its latest proposal on February 1, offering small changes to the bonus pool framework for pre-arbitration players and draft pick incentives for teams to break camp with their top prospects. It was expected at the time that the league would make a counterproposal. Instead, MLB put forth a request for federal mediation, which the union predictably declined the next day.
Since the MLBPA refused mediation last Friday, there’s been no negotiations between the two sides. Various players expressed their desire to return to the table — indeed, a common reason cited by the union for refusing mediation is the amount of time it’d take for a third party to get up to speed on the issues at hand — but it has been MLB’s turn to make the next offer. The league’s owners and top brass have been in contact for quarterly owners’ meetings running this week, but no sit-down with the MLBPA was scheduled until tonight.
The owners’ meetings conclude tomorrow, and it’s widely expected Commissioner Rob Manfred will formally announce a delay to the start of Spring Training. That’d be little more than a formality at this point, since there’s no chance of a deal being agreed upon in time for pitchers and catchers to report next week, as had been originally scheduled.
The date of greater import is March 31, the scheduled start of the regular season. Both Heyman and Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal (on Twitter) hear that the parties continue to hold out hope for Opening Day to remain on schedule or to incur only a minor delay. That’d require rapid progress in talks over the coming weeks. It is generally believed a new collective bargaining agreement would need to be in place within the first few days of March for the regular season to remain on schedule.
Jim Riggleman To Manage Pioneer League’s Billings Mustangs
Longtime big league coach and manager Jim Riggleman has been hired to manage the Billings Mustangs of the Pioneer League, according to an announcement from Mustangs’ clubhouse manager Harrison Faulk (Twitter link). The Pioneer League is an independent circuit designated as an official partner league of Major League Baseball.
Riggleman played in the minors during the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, topping out at Triple-A. He’s more known for his post-playing accomplishments, as he’s spent the better part of four decades coaching and managing. Riggleman spent most of the 1980’s as a minor league skipper in the Cardinals’ farm system. He got his first MLB managerial opportunity with the Padres in 1992, holding that role for three seasons. Riggleman managed the Cubs for the second half of that decade.
Over the past couple decades, Riggleman has worked more frequently as a bench coach. He spent some time as an interim skipper with the Mariners in 2008, then took over the Nationals’ dugout on an interim basis the following season. Riggleman was promoted to full-time manager in the nation’s capital, holding the role until resigning midway through the 2011 campaign. He’d again get to lead a dugout in an interim capacity in 2018, taking over for the Reds after Cincinnati dismissed Bryan Price that April.
The Reds didn’t retain Riggleman after the season, and he spent the 2019 campaign as Mets’ bench coach. Now 69 years old, he’ll make the jump to the independent ranks with the Mustangs.
Red Sox Sign Yolmer Sanchez To Minors Contract
The Red Sox announced that infielder Yolmer Sanchez has been signed to a minor league deal. The former Gold Glover will receive an invitation to Boston’s big league Spring Training camp.
Sanchez spent 2021 with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate, hitting .216/.309/.352 over 355 plate appearances. Atlanta signed Sanchez as a depth option in April of last year, but with Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Dansby Swanson staying healthy and delivering strong production for the World Series champions, Sanchez never got a call to the Show. It marked the first time since 2013 that Sanchez hadn’t seen action in a Major League season.
While the Red Sox are the fifth different organization Sanchez has joined in his pro career, the 29-year-old has suited up only with the White Sox at the MLB level. Sanchez played with Chicago from 2013-20, seeing regular work as a starting second baseman and third baseman during the team’s rebuilding years and acting as a useful utility infield piece in general. Always a solid defender, Sanchez’s work was recognized when he won the AL Gold Glove as a second baseman in 2019.
However, the White Sox still opted to non-tender Sanchez in the wake of that Gold Glove-winning season, as Sanchez was projected to earn a $6MM arbitration salary in 2020. Sanchez’s defense didn’t make up for his lack of offense, as he has hit only .245/.300/.360 in 2459 career PA. The Giants signed Sanchez to a minor league deal heading into the 2020 season but released him, resulting in Sanchez returning to the White Sox for 11 games that year and making an appearance on the team’s postseason roster (perhaps a nice full-circle moment considering Sanchez’s contributions during the team’s lean years).
After landing with the Orioles and Braves on minors deals, Sanchez will now try to gain a foothold in Boston. Sanchez’s versatility will only go far considering that he’ll be competing with several other multi-position infield types (i.e. Christian Arroyo, Jonathan Arauz, and fellow minor league signing Rob Refsnyder) in the battle to be Boston’s chief utility infielder. As well, Enrique Hernandez is capable of playing pretty much anywhere around the diamond, and the Red Sox could move Hernandez back into that super-utility role if they obtained another starting option at second base.
Tigers, Jack Lopez Agree To Minor League Deal
The Tigers have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent infielder Jack Lopez, as first reported by former big league infielder Carlos Baerga (on Instagram). Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press tweets that Lopez has signed a deal and will head to the Tigers’ spring facility in Lakeland, Fla. for minicamp.
The 29-year-old Lopez won a Silver Medal as part of Team USA during last summer’s Olympics. He made his Major League debut with the Red Sox not long after returning, going 2-for-13 with a pair of doubles in a tiny sample of seven games. He split the rest of his season between Double-A (five games) and Triple-A (68 games), batting a combined .285/.355/.413 with four homers, 17 doubles, a triple and 15 steals (in 17 tries) over the life of 273 plate appearances.
Lopez, a 16th-round pick by the Royals back in 2011, has appeared in parts of nine minor league seasons and logged a collective .241/.295/.331 batting line in that time. The vast majority of his professional experience has come at the two middle infield slots, with more time at shortstop than at second base. Lopez also has more than 1200 professional innings at the hot corner, in addition to some more sparse work in the outfield.
Baseball America at one point ranked Lopez among the middle tiers of the Royals’ farm system, noting that his range, soft hands and solid arm gave him a chance to handle shortstop at the big league level. That was seven years ago, and the the bat obviously hasn’t panned out as hoped, but Lopez will give the Tigers some defensive value and versatility to stash in the upper minors.
Rangers Expected To Explore Matt Olson Deal Post-Lockout
Whenever the lockout ends, transactions — both on the trade and free agent fronts — figure to pile up in a hurry. Among the likelier names to change hands is star Oakland first baseman Matt Olson, who has been the subject of rumors for several months. That’s only natural after A’s GM David Forst plainly acknowledged that the team has reached a point in its “cycle” where they’ll need to be open to moving established players (though the writing had already been on the wall for some time before that).
The Yankees have been frequently reported as an interested suitor for Olson, and prior to the lockout, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote that the Rangers had “already begun investigating” what an Olson acquisition might cost them. Whatever exactly occurred in those pre-lockout talks seemingly wasn’t a huge deterrent, as Grant writes this week that Texas will “absolutely” circle back with the A’s to see if there’s a potential fit.
Perhaps of greater intrigue to fans, however, is that Grant suggests an Olson package would require, at minimum, current big league first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, plus of the organization’s top prospects and a pair of other mid-tier names from down on the farm. As one might expect, it’s a rather broad and subjective set of parameters. Josh Jung and Justin Foscue are both “top prospects” for the Rangers, for instance, but Jung’s value is considerably higher at the moment. It’s hard to see the Rangers parting with Jung, who’s expected to debut in 2022, or either of the top pitching prospects in the system (2021 No. 2 overall pick Jack Leiter and 2018 first-rounder Cole Winn).
Regardless of specific permutations on the prospect side of things, a package headlined by Lowe and two or even three intriguing farmhands would figure to be appealing to A’s brass. Lowe, 26, isn’t on the same level as Olson offensively or defensively, but he’s been an above-average hitter in the big leagues and is controlled another five seasons. He’ll likely be a Super Two player (assuming Super Two designation remains unchanged in current labor talks), thus putting him on a path to arbitration eligibility next offseason. Lowe’s first two or even three arbitration salaries should be relatively affordable, however.
Texas acquired Lowe in a Dec. 2020 trade that sent four prospects to the Rays, and he responded with a solid first year at the plate in his new environs. Through 642 plate appearances, Lowe slashed .264/.357/.415 with 18 home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, eight stolen bases (in eight attempts) and a hearty 12.5% walk rate. Lowe had fanned in 31.8% of his first 245 trips to the plate in Tampa Bay, but he dropped that number to a more manageable 25.8% in Texas. Defensively, he put up sub-par marks in Defensive Runs Saved (-3), Ultimate Zone Rating (-4.2) and Outs Above Average (-3). Scouting reports from Lowe’s prospect days pegged him as a solid defender at first base, however, so there’s likely some room for improvement.
Notably, Grant adds that if Olson isn’t acquired, first base isn’t likely to be a priority for the Rangers. A pursuit of Olson, then, seemingly isn’t about being dissatisfied with the work Lowe has put in, but rather about jumping at the opportunity to grab an elite player with multiple years of club control remaining.
While there’s no guarantee Olson is ultimately moved, it’s an interesting look at a potential framework for a swap. The A’s have, historically speaking, tended to prefer returns that included immediate help for the big league roster when dealing away star players. Lowe would certainly fall under that umbrella, and some immediate production from him could help to soften the blow of losing Olson.
Olson, 28 next month, has emerged as one of the premier first basemen in the game over the past few years, with his 2021 season in particular towering above the rest of the league. In 673 plate appearances, Olson batted .271/.371/.540 (146 wRC+) with 39 home runs, 35 doubles and standout defense at first base. He dramatically reduced his strikeout rate, cutting it from 26.1% (2016-20) all the way to 16.8% — and he did so without sacrificing any of his plate discipline. To the contrary, Olson’s walk rate jumped from 10.8% in 2016-20 to 13.1% this past season.
Trading a player of this caliber is a tough pill for the A’s to swallow but also, as Forst alluded to, a familiar process in the Oakland front office. Olson is due his second arbitration raise once the lockout ends, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that he’ll jump from $5MM to $12MM for the 2022 season. Add in a third and final arbitration raise in 2023, and Olson figures to cost upwards of $30MM over the next two seasons combined.
That’s a bargain rate for most clubs, but for a perennially low-payroll A’s team that has seen its best players reach the late stages of arbitration simultaneously, it’s a problematic scenario. Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas are projected to combine for $45.7MM alone; the A’s payroll is set to rise to its second- or third-highest mark ever in 2022 before the team even makes a single addition.
Trading Olson within the division may not be preferable for the A’s, but longtime baseball ops boss Billy Beane and Forst have never shied away from intra-division swaps. Texas and Oakland lined up on a deal just last offseason, swapping out Elvis Andrus and Khris Davis in a financially-motivated arrangement. A year prior, Texas and Oakland matched up in a Mike Minor swap, and the two teams also struck an accord in the 2019-20 offseason when Jurickson Profar went from Texas to Oakland as part of a three-team trade. Suffice it to say, Beane and Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels are comfortable trading within the division, although moving a star of Olson’s caliber perhaps changes that calculus a bit.
If the Rangers were to ultimately pry Olson loose from their divisional foe, one would have to imagine they’d take a run at signing him to a long-term extension. They still have a ways to go before stepping back into the AL West running and aren’t yet expected to contend in 2022, so losing any trade acquisition after just two seasons could be deemed counterproductive. That’s putting the cart well before the horse, however, as Texas will face competition from several other clubs in trying to put together the best offer for Olson. Beyond the Yankees, Olson has been reported as a target for the Braves, should Freddie Freeman sign elsewhere. Others yet will view the situation similarly to the Rangers, feeling that while first base isn’t a dire need, Olson himself is so appealing that he’s worth moving some other pieces around to fit into the puzzle.