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A Potential Breakout Slugger For Yankees

By Connor Byrne | April 13, 2020 at 10:14pm CDT

Despite the myriad injuries they faced a year ago, the Yankees amassed 103 wins and boasted the majors’ highest-scoring offense. There were many unsung heroes along the way for the Bronx Bombers, including hulking first baseman Mike Ford, a former undrafted player out of Princeton University who went on a tear during his first stint in the bigs in 2019.

Ford, soon to turn 28, has been a member of the Yankees organization for just about all of his pro career, but he did spend some time with the Mariners last year. That came after Seattle chose Ford 11th overall in the December 2018 Rule 5 Draft. But the Mariners determined in late March they didn’t have a place for Ford, so the Yankees got him back. It was a fortunate turn of events for New York, with which Ford slashed .259/.350/.559 (134 wRC+) and smacked 12 home runs over 50 games and 163 plate appearances. Among 411 hitters who totaled at least 150 PA, Ford ranked 15th in isolated power (.301, tying him with Reds 49-homer man Eugenio Suarez).

Was Ford’s outburst just the product of a small sample size? It’s quite possible – after all, it’s not atypical for a player to come out of nowhere to succeed in.a low number of at-bats, only to crash to earth thereafter. But there are plenty of promising signs that go beyond Ford’s bottom-line numbers from 2019.

For one, Ford has a history of quality production in the minors. Just last year, for example, Ford hit .303/.401/.605 with 23 homers in 349 PA in Triple-A ball. Even in an offensively charged environment, his output was an eye-popping 51 percent above average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. And Ford collected nearly as many unintentional walks (46) as strikeouts (55), which has been a trend throughout his pro career. Ford, unlike many hitters, doesn’t sell out for power at the expensive of strikeouts. He only fanned 17.2 percent of the time in the majors last year (compared to a solid 10.4 percent walk rate) and swung and missed at a meager 8.1 percent clip. For reference, the average MLB hitter posted a 23 percent strikeout rate, an 8.5 percent walk rate and an 11.2 percent swinging-strike rate.

Digging deeper, Ford was a Statcast hit, as he logged an expected weighted on-base average (.365) that almost matched his real wOBA (.372). In terms of batted-ball profile, his main comparables included Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Max Kepler, Marcus Semien and Kyle Seager. That’s pretty good company. Ford accomplished those feats despite an abnormally low .243 batting average on balls in play, but it’s worth pointing out that he isn’t fleet of foot – not to mention that HRs don’t factor into BABIP. He’s not an ideal candidate to put up a high number in that category, anyway.

Looking ahead, if we’re lucky enough to get a 2020 season, Ford seems to have the potential to at least serve as a useful part of the Yankees’ offense for the second straight year. He doesn’t have the clearest path to extensive playing time, however. The Yankees also have the offensively capable Luke Voit–Miguel Andujar tandem as first base possibilities. And they, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez could eat into DH at-bats (though Ford’s the lone left-handed hitter of the group). It’s tough to argue with what Ford did last season, though, and he just may prove to be another keeper for their offense if that carries over.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals New York Yankees Breakout Candidate Mike Ford

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Quick Hits: Metrics, Wilmer, Draft, Short Season

By Jeff Todd | April 13, 2020 at 9:06pm CDT

Even in the absence of baseball, there are plenty of interesting things being written about the game. Here are a few recent favorites …

  • Defensive metrics are now widely circulated, but we lack broad-based understanding of how to value them. At Baseball Prospectus, Jonathan Judge and Sean O’Rourke provide an interesting examination of the relative strengths and weaknesses of varying systems. The BPro FRAA measure turns out quite well in measuring outfielders, while Statcast’s OAA metric performs best in the infield. It’s not for the statistical faint of heart, but you’ll want to read the whole article (or at least its full conclusion section!) to gather up the necessary nuance.
  • MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince provided a fascinating oral history of the 2015 trade deadline swap that would’ve sent Carlos Gomez from the Brewers to the Mets for Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores — an agreed-upon trade that fell apart in controversial and very public fashion. It’s essential reading for any hot stove aficionado, featuring a trove of recollections of many of the key actors. By happenstance, we recently did our own examination of the butterfly effects of that non-trade.
  • The MLB draft will go forward in 2020, albeit in a modified form. It remains to be seen just how many rounds will be held, but there are sure to be less players chosen than usual. And with amateur spring sports cut short, teams haven’t had recent looks at many prospects. That makes prior scouting assessments all the more important to teams looking to navigate a one-off amateur intake situation. Baseball America has released its updated top-400 ranking of draft prospects, featuring all the names that have moved onto and up the board most recently.
  • We don’t yet know whether we’ll have a season or what one would even look like, but there’s no question the 2020 campaign will be shortened if it’s held at all. At Fangraphs, Craig Edwards examines the volatility of relief pitchers and how that could play into a ~half-season campaign. While it’d be tougher than ever to predict performance, Edwards notes that it may actually be even more important to carry a slate of highly capable relievers in a short-season format, particularly if the postseason tournament is expanded as part of the (sure-to-be) unusual schedule that is ultimately arranged.
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Houston Astros Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets Notes

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2020-21 Free Agent Class: Catchers

By Jeff Todd | April 13, 2020 at 8:33pm CDT

We have long carried a running list of 2020-21 free agents. With the offseason now completed, it has been updated to feature the players presently scheduled to reach the open market at the conclusion of the 2020 season (whether or not it is played).

We’ll take the opportunity to run through the class of players by position … starting with the catchers (season-age for 2021; alphabetical order within category):

Top of the Class

  • J.T. Realmuto (30) – The Phillies haven’t been able to work out a long-term deal with the star receiver, who is still in his prime. He could challenge for a record-setting free agent deal for a backstop.

Other Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

  • Robinson Chirinos (36) – The late-bloomer keeps hitting and laying claim to more and more playing time.
  • James McCann (31) – Despite a breakout 2019 season, the White Sox pushed McCann into a secondary role when they inked Yasmani Grandal.
  • Yadier Molina (38) – There’s virtually no chance the Cards’ icon will make it to free agency, let alone end up with another team.
  • Roberto Perez (32) ($5.5MM club option with a $450K buyout) – The Indians won’t allow Perez to become a free agent if he repeats his strong 2019 showing.
  • Wilson Ramos (33) ($10MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout) – The bat is still legit but questions remain about how much the Buffalo can handle behind the dish. It’s possible the Mets could retain him after a big season, but Ramos could be a better fit in the American League going forward.

Top Timeshare Candidates

  • Alex Avila (34) – High-OBP lefty hitter is still a nice complimentary piece, especially with a 26-man active roster.
  • Welington Castillo (34) – He’s in need of a bounceback after a rough showing in ’19.
  • Jason Castro (34) – The well-regarded defender just turned in an above-average year with the bat.
  • Francisco Cervelli (35) – He struggled in 2019 but was a high-end hitter in the prior campaign.
  • Tyler Flowers (35) – Flowers is a well-rated pitch-framer whose bat has faded a bit.
  • Chris Iannetta (38) – The long-time veteran decided to keep going in 2020, but the season freeze puts his future in question.
  • Sandy Leon (32) – A strong defensive backstop, Leon is going to have to show he can do something with the bat if he’s to keep getting chances.
  • Jeff Mathis (38) – Mathis made his money on an unparalleled reputation for overall defensive value, but he may not get another MLB offer if he can’t improve on last year’s showing at the plate (.158/.209/.224).
  • Austin Romine (32) – He got paid a fairly hefty sum by the Tigers after perking up offensively in the past two seasons.
  • Kurt Suzuki (37) – The second act as a flyball-heavy home run hitter has had legs, as Suzuki has delivered three-straight above-average offensive seasons, but his inability to control the running game is a concern.
  • Stephen Vogt (36) (2021 vesting/club option) – Vogt came back strong in 2019, but he’ll probably have to keep hitting at an above-average clip to hold onto a timeshare.
  • Mike Zunino (30) – When he’s going with the bat, Zunino is a high-quality all-around performer. But he has never been consistent and the arrow pointed straight down (.165/.232/.312) in 2019.
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2020-21 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

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Prospect Faceoff: 2 Future AL Central Stars?

By Connor Byrne | April 13, 2020 at 7:51pm CDT

The Twins’ Royce Lewis and the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. are among the jewels of their respective clubs’ farm systems, and if we’re to believe prospect gurus, there isn’t much separation between the two. Both players are regarded as top 30 prospects, MLB.com ranking Lewis ninth, FanGraphs placing him 13th and Baseball America putting him in the No. 26 spot. Witt checks in at Nos. 10, 23 and 24 on those lists.

Lewis, now 20 years old, entered the professional ranks as the No. 1 overall pick in 2017. At $6.725MM, Lewis received what was then the largest bonus ever given to a player drafted out of high school. Lewis came roaring out of the gates at the lower levels that year and the next season, though his production has dropped of late. He made his debut in Double-A ball last season and batted .231/.291/.358 (88 wRC+) with just two home runs in 148 plate appearances, though it’s worth noting that he was much younger than the typical player at that level. And Lewis, to his credit, did absolutely thrive dominate during the autumn in the Arizona Fall League, where he earned Most Valuable Player honors. There are some concerns about his “cacophonous” swing, as FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen explained in February, but he added that “the star-level talent will eventually shine through.”

Just where Lewis will line up in the majors remains to be seen. He’s versatile enough to play multiple positions (including center field), and the Twins seem to have found a long-term answer at short in Jorge Polanco. Likewise, the Royals are in nice shape at short with Adalberto Mondesi, so it’s up in the air where Witt will fit if he does arrive in Kansas City someday. They and the Twins can worry about how best to align their defenses at a later date, though.

[RELATED: When Will The Royals Contend Again?]

Witt, the son of former MLB hurler Bobby Witt, joined the Royals as the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft. He, like Lewis, got to the majors after a tremendous performance as a high school shortstop, and wound up signing for an almost $7.8MM bonus. But Witt endured his struggles during his initial taste of pro ball last summer, hitting .262/.317/.354 (85 wRC+) with only one homer in 180 PA in rookie ball. Nevertheless, Longenhagen compared Witt to Rockies star Trevor Story just a couple weeks ago, writing, “There are going to be some strikeouts but Witt is a big, athletic specimen who is very likely to not only stay at shortstop but be quite good there.”

Whichever positions these two play, we’ll be looking at a couple AL Central standouts if they develop according to plan in the coming years. Which prospect would you choose?

(Poll link for app users)

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Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins Prospect Faceoff Bobby Witt Jr. Royce Lewis

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Latest On Trey Mancini’s Recovery

By Jeff Todd | April 13, 2020 at 7:11pm CDT

Orioles GM Mike Elias provided an update on outfielder Trey Mancini, who is recovering from surgery to remove a malignant tumor. Among those to cover the discussion was Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com.

Mancini is said to be “doing well” now, one month after the tumor was removed. But the timeline for his return to regular baseball activities will be measured in “months rather than weeks,” per the O’s GM.

Mancini’s personal well-being would be the top priority regardless, but there’s certainly no reason now to accelerate his  return with the season on pause. That Mancini’s baseball career is even a reasonable topic of discussion is itself a good sign. Elias emphasizes that it was not only a “major procedure” but also a “major life event” for the 28-year-old.

Fortunately, the broader outlook seems to be about as good as could be hoped given the underlying condition. Elias explains: “His health status personally, the way that the operation went and the demographics age-wise and health-wise that he resides in going into this puts him in a really good spot to make a 100 percent recovery both from a general health standpoint, but also a baseball sense.”

Mancini is coming off of his best of three full MLB seasons. In 2019, he swatted 35 home runs and turned in an excellent .291/.364/.535 batting line in 679 plate appearances. Hopefully he’ll have a chance to build off of that strong performance sooner than later.

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Baltimore Orioles Trey Mancini

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More Than A Decade Of Mike Rizzo Trades

By Steve Adams | April 13, 2020 at 5:37pm CDT

Expectations weren’t all that lofty when Mike Rizzo took over D.C. baseball operations back in 2009. It’s safe to say he has exceeded them. His first roster matched the ’08 outfit with a brutal 59-win effort. That ramped to 69-93 and then 80-81 in the ensuing two seasons. The Nats broke out in 2012 and haven’t had a losing campaign since. There has been quite a lot of drama over the years, but the D.C. organization finally broke through a postseason curse with a stunning run to a title in 2019.

Rizzo’s history on the trade market includes some duds, but also quite a few slam dunks. He’s still not under contract beyond the 2020 season, though the expectation remains that he’ll end up working out another extension to remain at the helm.

2009 Season

  • Acquired RHP Logan Kensing from the Marlins for RHP Kyle Gunderson
  • Acquired 1B/OF Mike Morse from the Mariners for OF Ryan Langerhans
  • Acquired LHP Sean Burnett and OF Nyjer Morgan from the Pirates for OF Lastings Milledge and RHP Joel Hanrahan
  • Acquired LHP Aaron Johnson from the Marlins for 1B Nick Johnson
  • Acquired RHPs Ryan Mattheus and Robinson Fabian from the Rockies for LHP Joe Beimel
  • Acquired OFs Daryle Ward and Norris Hopper from the White Sox for cash
  • Acquired RHP Luis Garcia and a PTBNL (LHP Victor Garante) from the Dodgers for INF Ronnie Belliard
  • Acquired C Jamie Burke from the Mariners for cash

2009-10 Offseason

  • Acquired RHP Brian Bruney from the Yankees in exchange for Rule 5 pick Jamie Hoffman

2010 Season

  • Acquired C Wilson Ramos and LHP Joe Testa from the Twins for RHP Matt Capps
  • Acquired RHPs Tanner Roark & Ryan Tatusko from the Rangers for INF Cristian Guzman
  • Acquired SS Brian Bixler from the Pirates for cash

2010-11 Offseason

  • Acquired RHP Henry Rodriguez and OF Corey Brown from the Athletics for OF Josh Willingham
  • Acquired LHP Tom Gorzelanny from the Cubs for RHP A.J. Morris, LHP Graham Hicks and OF Michael Burgess
  • Acquired RHP Adam Olbrychowski from the Yankees for OF Justin Maxwell
  • Acquired INF/OF Cutter Dykstra and cash from the Brewers for OF Nyjer Morgan
  • Acquired RHP Erik Davis and cash from the Padres in exchange for INF Alberto Gonzalez

2011 Season

  • Acquired OF Gregor Blanco from the Royals for cash
  • Acquired OF Jonny Gomes and cash from the Reds for OF Bill Rhinehart and LHP Chris Manno
  • Acquired SS Zach Walters from the Diamondbacks for RHP Jason Marquis
  • Acquired OF Erik Komatsu from the Brewers for INF/OF Jerry Hairston Jr.

2011-12 Offseason

  • Acquired RHP Ryan Perry from the Tigers for RHP Collin Balester
  • Acquired LHP Gio Gonzalez and RHP Robert Gilliam from the Athletics for RHPs A.J. Cole and Brad Peacock, C Derek Norris and LHP Tommy Milone

2012 Season

  • Acquired C Kurt Suzuki and cash from the Athletics for C David Freitas

2012-13 Offseason

  • Acquired OF Denard Span from the Twins for RHP Alex Meyer
  • Acquired RHPs A.J. Cole and Blake Treinen and LHP Ian Krol from the Athletics in a three-team deal that sent 1B/OF Mike Morse from the Nats to the Mariners and C John Jaso from the Mariners to the Athletics

2013 Season

  • Acquired RHP Ian Dickson from the Cubs for RHP Henry Rodriguez
  • Acquired OF Scott Hairston from the Cubs for RHP Ivan Pineyro
  • Acquired OF David DeJesus from the Cubs for cash
  • Acquired LHP Matthew Spann from the Rays for OF David DeJesus
  • Acquired RHP Dakota Bacus from the Athletics for C Kurt Suzuki

2013-14 Offseason

  • Acquired OF John Wooten from the Athletics for LHP Fernando Abad
  • Acquired RHP Doug Fister from the Tigers for LHP Robbie Ray, INF Steve Lombardozzi and LHP Ian Krol
  • Acquired LHP Jerry Blevins from the Athletics for OF Billy Burns
  • Acquired C Jose Lobaton, LHP Felipe Vazquez and OF Drew Vettleson from the Rays for RHP Nate Karns
  • Acquired INF Brandon Laird from the Royals for cash

2014 Season

  • Acquired 2B/SS Asdrubal Cabrera from the Indians for SS Zach Walters
  • Acquired LHP Matt Thornton from Yankees for cash

2014-15 Offseason

  • Acquired RHP Abel De Los Santos and INF Chris Bostick from the Rangers for LHP Ross Detwiler
  • Acquired SS Trea Turner (as a PTBNL) and RHP Joe Ross from the Padres in three-team deal that sent OF Steven Souza Jr. and LHP Travis Ott to the Rays
  • Acquired INF Yunel Escobar from the Athletics for RHP Tyler Clippard
  • Acquired C Dan Butler from the Red Sox for LHP Daniel Rosenbaum
  • Acquired OF Matt den Dekker from the Mets for LHP Jerry Blevins

2015 Season

  • Acquired OF Darin Mastroianni from the Phillies for cash
  • Acquired RHP David Carpenter from the Yankees for INF Tony Renda
  • Acquired RHP Jonathan Papelbon from the Phillies for RHP Nick Pivetta

2015-16 Offseason

  • Acquired RHPs Trevor Gott and Michael Brady from the Angels for INF Yunel Escobar and cash
  • Acquired OF Ben Revere from the Blue Jays for RHP Drew Storen

2016 Season

  • Acquired LHP Marc Rzepczynski from the Athletics for INF Max Shrock
  • Acquired C Taylor Gushue from the Pirates for SS Chris Bostick
  • Acquired RHP Mark Melancon from the Pirates for LHPs Felipe Vazquez and Taylor Hearn

2016-17 Offseason

  • Acquired RHP Jimmy Cordero from the Phillies for a PTBNL (RHP Mario Sanchez)
  • Acquired C Derek Norris from the Padres for RHP Pedro Avila
  • Acquired OF Adam Eaton from the White Sox for RHPs Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning
  • Acquired RHPs Austin L. Adams and Kyle McGowin from the Angels for 2B/SS Danny Espinosa
  • Acquired LHP Enny Romero from the Rays for RHP Jeffrey Rosa
  • Acquired OF Ryan Raburn from the White Sox for cash

2017 Season

  • Acquired LHP Sean Doolittle and RHP Ryan Madson from the Athletics for RHP Blake Treinen, LHP Jesus Luzardo and 2B Sheldon Neuse
  • Acquired INF Howie Kendrick and cash from the Phillies for LHP McKenzie Mills and international bonus pool space
  • Acquired RHP Brandon Kintzler from the Twins in exchange for LHP Tyler Watson and $500K of international bonus pool space

2017-18 Offseason

  • Acquired INF Matt Reynolds from the Mets for cash

2018 Season

  • Acquired RHP Kelvin Herrera from the Royals for 3B Kelvin Gutierrez, OF Blake Perkins and RHP Yohanse Morel
  • Acquired RHP Jacob Condra-Bogan from the Royals for OF Brian Goodwin
  • Acquired RHP Jhon Romero from the Cubs for RHP Brandon Kintzler
  • Acquired INF Andruw Monasterio from the Cubs for 2B Daniel Murphy and cash
  • Acquired RHP Andrew Istler from the Dodgers for Ryan Madson
  • Acquired C/1B KJ Harrison and INF Gilbert Lara from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Gio Gonzalez and $250K of international bonus pool space

2018-19 Offseason

  • Acquired RHP Kyle Barraclough from the Marlins for $1MM of international bonus pool space
  • Acquired C Yan Gomes from the Indians for RHP Jefry Rodriguez, OF Daniel Johnson and a PTBNL (INF Andruw Monasterio)
  • Acquired RHP Tanner Rainey from the Reds for RHP Tanner Roark

2019 Season

  • Acquired LHP Nick Wells from the Mariners for RHP Austin L. Adams
  • Acquired RHP Daniel Hudson from the Blue Jays for RHP Kyle Johnston
  • Acquired LHP Roenis Elias from the Mariners for LHP Taylor Guilbeau and RHP Elvis Alvarado
  • Acquired RHP Hunter Strickland from the Mariners for LHP Aaron Fletcher

2019-20 Offseason

  • Acquired RHP Ryne Harper from the Twins in exchange for RHP Hunter McMahon

—

With that exhausting exercise out of the way — it’s time for MLBTR readers to weigh in! What grade does the president of baseball operations of the reigning World Champs get for his trading efforts? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)

Curious to look back on additional GMs and their trade histories?

We’ve already polled on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Padres GM A.J. Preller, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander, ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, Reds GM Dick Williams, Orioles GM Mike Elias, former Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart, and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.

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Washington Nationals GM Trade History Mike Rizzo

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In Favor Of MLB’s Brainstorming

By Tim Dierkes | April 13, 2020 at 2:52pm CDT

MLB and the players are kicking around all kinds of ways to play a season in 2020. In today’s video, Jeff Todd explains why it’s too early to cancel.

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MLBTR On YouTube Coronavirus

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Dusting Off The MLBTR Mailbag

By Steve Adams | April 13, 2020 at 1:24pm CDT

It’s been awhile since we’ve asked readers to submit questions for the MLBTR Mailbag. How long? The last mailbag column we did focused on whether the Mets should tender a contract to Matt Harvey for final arb year. The prior mailbag post fielded questions on Diamondbacks slugger J.D. Martinez’s earning power in free agency and how the Orioles might be better off trading cornerstones like Zack Britton, Manny Machado and Adam Jones than pursuing free-agent rotation upgrades.

Ok — so maybe it’s been more than “awhile.”

Given the lack of news and current uncertain state of the 2020 season, it seems like a reasonable time to open up the floor to some reader questions. Of course, no one knows when or even whether a season will be played this year, so there’s no way to speak with any certainty about the timeline of a return to the sport’s normalcy. But readers who have been wondering about rosters, future classes of free agents, potential trades (whenever the transaction freeze is lifted), extension candidates, etc. — let us know what’s on your mind! Alternatively, if you have a particular topic/subject you’d like to see explored or a new series you’d like to see unfold here at MLBTR, feel free to make a suggestion.

You can submit your questions via email (mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com), via Twitter or just in the comments of this post.

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MLBTR Mailbag

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Which Players Will Reach 10-And-5 Rights This Year?

By Steve Adams | April 13, 2020 at 12:24pm CDT

As players continue to bounce around the league with greater frequency for a variety of reasons — teams leaning increasingly toward shorter-term deals, financial incentive to reach free agency, etc. — the number of players gaining 10-and-5 rights have diminished in recent years. For those unfamiliar or those who need a reminder, 10-and-5 rights are granted to a player who has accrued 10 years of MLB service time, including five consecutive years with his current team. These players are given veto power over any potential trade involving them.

It’s rare that a player invokes his 10-and-5 rights, although we’ve seen them come into play in the past. Adam Jones utilized his 10-and-5 provision to block a deal to the Phillies two summer ago, and Brandon Phillips quashed a pair of trades that would’ve sent him out of Cincinnati before he finally acquiesced on a deal sending him to Atlanta.

In other cases, such as Coco Crisp’s trade from Oakland back to Cleveland in 2016, players are willing to waive that veto power for the right deal and/or some additional financial incentive. Those rights were a major factor in the Rays’ decision to trade Evan Longoria when they did; had he opened the 2018 season with Tampa Bay, he’d have gained full no-trade power just two days into the year.

As a reminder, players will receive a year of service time even if no games are played in 2020. And if a season is played, the service time will be prorated to match the truncated nature of the season. In other words, current big leaguers are going to get their year of service unless they’re optioned to the minors or released.

With all that said, some 10-and-5 rights looming on the horizon (I’ve omitted players such as Buster Posey, whose contracts already included full no-trade protection)…

  • Kenley Jansen: Jansen’s five-year, $80MM contract with the Dodgers didn’t include a no-trade clause, although it does pay him a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. Jansen has nine years, 73 days (9.073) of MLB service time, so he’ll clear 10 years of service in 2020 with or without a season. As such, he’ll have full no-trade power next winter, when he’d have one year and $20MM remaining on his contract.
  • Jason Heyward: Heyward is getting to the elusive 10-and-5 status in a bit of a different manner. He’s already reached 10 years of service, and once this year elapses, he’ll have spent five years in a Cubs uniform. His contract allows him to block deals to a dozen teams of his choosing in 2020, but he’ll gain full no-trade power next winter. His contract would be cumbersome to move in the first place, given the four years and $86MM remaining on his deal at the moment.
  • Johnny Cueto: Like Heyward, Cueto already has the requisite decade of MLB service, but he’s only spent four years with his current team. Next offseason, Cueto will have spent five seasons as a Giant, giving him veto power if the club wants to trade the sixth season of that deal and the subsequent club option. He’s owed $21MM in 2021 and a $5MM buyout on his 2022 club option.
  • Freddie Freeman: There’s no real reason to think the Braves would be entertaining the notion of trading a player who has long been considered the face of the franchise (even if Ronald Acuna Jr. is now taking over that title), but Freeman’s eight-year, $135MM contract didn’t contain any no-trade protection and he currently has 9.033 years of service. He’s owed $22MM in 2021, the final season of his current contract, but an extension seems likelier than a trade.
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Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Dodgers San Francisco Giants Johnny Cueto

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The D-backs Replaced Paul Goldschmidt With A Waiver Claim — And It Worked

By Steve Adams | April 13, 2020 at 9:39am CDT

It’s been three years since Christian Walker rode the waiver carousel. A 2012 fourth-round pick of the Orioles, Walker’s chance of being a regular with the Baltimore organization likely went up in flames the moment owner Peter Angelos green-lighted the seven-year, $161MM deal that brought Chris Davis back to the club after he’d reached free agency. The Orioles still had a designated hitter spot, but a year later in the 2016-17 offseason, the Orioles re-signed Mark Trumbo to a three-year deal that only further cut into Walker’s opportunities. In Spring Training 2017, Walker was cut loose when the O’s acquired Richard Bleier from the Yankees.

From there, it was a whirlwind month for Walker — and likely one with a fair bit of frustration. After being blocked in Baltimore by Davis and Trumbo, Walker was surely hoping for a clearer path to the Majors. Instead, he landed in the National League, with no DH… behind Freddie Freeman. The Braves claimed Walker four days after his DFA in Baltimore but tried to sneak him through waivers themselves not two weeks later. Walker was again left to hope for a path to the Majors. Upon landing in Cincinnati on another claim, he was, of course, looking straight up at an in-his-prime Joey Votto. Three weeks later, Walker hit waivers again when the Reds tried to outright him at the end of camp. This time, he landed directly behind Paul Goldschmidt in Arizona.

Christian Walker | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The D-backs finally succeeded in passing him through waivers, though they selected him back to the big leagues later that year. For two seasons, Walker obliterated Triple-A opposition, slashing a combined .305/.372/.586 (142 wRC+) with 50 home runs, 59 doubles and 13 triples. And yet, his Major League counterpart matched him blow for blow in the big leagues; Goldschmidt posted a ridiculous .294/.396/.547 (144 wRC+) with 69 home runs, 69 doubles and eight triples. By the time the 2018 season concluded, Walker was out of minor league options while Goldschmidt entered the final season of his contract.

A trade of Goldschmidt seemed plausible but hardly a sure thing entering the winter of 2018-19. There was little hope of the D-backs re-signing him with Zack Greinke still on the books. Goldschmidt had already signed one team-friendly extension in his career and wasn’t likely to do so a second time. The D-backs explored deals involving both Goldschmidt and Greinke that winter, ultimately lining up with the Cardinals on a return of Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young and a Competitive Balance draft pick (Round B).

Even at that point, though, Walker wasn’t a lock to step into Goldschmidt’s shoes. The D-backs had re-signed Eduardo Escobar to a three-year deal, crowding the third base mix and perhaps pushing Jake Lamb across the diamond to first base. Lamb’s 2018 season was ruined by a shoulder injury, but he hit 59 home runs from 2016-17, batting a combined .248/.345/.498 along the way. A platoon looked to be the likeliest outcome for the right-handed-hitting Walker and the lefty-swinging Lamb, and that’s indeed how the club operated — until Lamb landed on the injured list once again on April 5 with a quadriceps injury that would sideline him into late June.

Prior to the 2019 season, Walker hadn’t started consecutive games in the Majors since Sept. 2014. With Goldschmidt out the door and Lamb on the shelf, however, the everyday opportunity he’d sought in the nearly five years since making his MLB debut was sitting right in front of him, and he seized it. Walker appeared inn 71 games while Lamb was on the IL — starting 66 of them — and hit .258/.333/.461 with 11 homers, 17 doubles, a triple, four steals and elite defense at first base. Even with Lamb back in the fold and playing on a $4.825MM salary, Walker had earned the trust of the organization and earned himself an everyday role.

By season’s end, the then-28-year-old Walker had compiled a .259/.348/.476 slash and 29 home runs. While his hitter-friendly home park and the juiced ball that prompted home run totals throughout the league to explode rendered that production perhaps a bit lighter than some might expect (112 wRC+, 111 OPS+), Walker complemented his output at the plate with quality baserunning and with some of the best glovework of any first baseman in the Majors. Walker’s 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 9 Outs Above Average trailed only Oakland’s Matt Olson for the MLB lead at his position. Walker’s 3.0 bWAR, in fact, topped the 2.4 mark of the franchise icon he’d replaced.

It’ll be important to see how he carries himself at the plate in the event of a course correction with regard to the composition of the baseball, but there’s little reason to doubt his ability. Walker (fittingly) drew a base on balls in 11.1 percent of his plate appearances and was among the game’s very best in terms of hard-hit rate (94th percentile), average exit velocity (85th percentile), xwOBA (81st percentile) and percentage of barreled balls (90th percentile). And even if those numbers take a step back, his superb glovework and excellent baserunning (relative to his positional peers) help to give Walker a relatively high floor.

All of that should be music to the ears of the D-backs, whose patience in hanging onto Walker was rewarded not only with a potential everyday heir to the first base slot — but one that can be controlled all the way through the 2024 campaign. Heading into the 2020 season — assuming there is one — there should be little doubt that Walker has a firm grip on the starting job that’s eluded him for his entire career. As insane as it would have sounded when Walker was acquired in 2017 and as improbable as it might’ve seemed even last spring, the D-backs look like they’ve successfully replaced Goldschmidt with a waiver claim.

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