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The Opener: Burns, Simpson, MLBTR Chat

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Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day:

1. Chase Burns to make MLB debut:

It’s a big day for fans of the Reds, as top pitching prospect and second overall pick in last year’s draft Chase Burns is set to make his major league debut today. He’ll take the mound at Great American Ball Park against Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon (3.10 ERA) in a game scheduled for 7:10pm local time. Burns has been sensational through 13 starts across three levels of the minors this year, combining for a 1.77 ERA and 36.8% strikeout rate in 66 innings. Even when zeroing in on just his two starts at Triple-A, Burns has been quite impressive with a 2.19 ERA and 30.4% strikeout rate in 12 1/3 innings of work. His rapid ascent through the minors and dominance at every level has made it clear he’s ready for the challenge of the big leagues, though the Yankees are a tough first assignment given that they lead the AL in runs scored and wRC+.

2. Simpson to return:

One of the sport’s fastest players is headed back to the majors. As noted by Adam Berry of MLB.com, the Rays are poised to recall Chandler Simpson from the minors today to take over center field duties from the recently-optioned Kameron Misner. Simpson stole a whopping 19 bases in just 35 games (22 attempts) and batted .285/.315/.317 (85 wRC+) during his first stint in the majors earlier this year. In conjunction with some lackluster defense in center field, that lack of power and paltry 4.5% walk rate resulted in Simpson returning to the minors at the beginning of June. Since then, he’s hit a robust .366/.416/.465 at the Triple-A level. He’ll get another opportunity as the Rays face the Royals at Kauffman Stadium tonight, where he’ll be tested by southpaw Kris Bubic (2.12 ERA).

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With just over a month to go until the July 31 trade deadline, chatter about trade season has already begun in earnest. While it will be difficult for another in-season blockbuster to top the Devers deal from earlier this month, a handful of smaller deals have started to come together around the league as well. Whether you’re looking ahead to the deadline or still trying to sort between the contenders and pretenders, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Trade Deadline Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Phillies. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never been afraid to take swings, and this year figures to be no exception as they battle the Mets for control of the NL East.

Record: 47-31 (90.7% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

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Potential needs: Late-inning relief, corner outfield, center field, second base

Philadelphia has fewer holes than most teams do. They're the rare club that probably feels good about their rotation depth. They've stacked much of the everyday lineup with star players, most of whom are performing up to expectations. The top priority is a familiar one for the fanbase and front office: stabilizing the back of the bullpen.

Jordan Romano, Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm are their top in-house options at the back end. Strahm is consistently effective but not a prototypical power arm. Romano's first season in Philly has been up-and-down. Kerkering has high-octane stuff and has gotten excellent results since the start of May, but he's always at risk of losing the strike zone. Rookies Mick Abel and Andrew Painter are starting pitching prospects but might make a greater impact this year in the late innings. Still, that's a lot of onus to put on young pitchers.

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Twins Have Exercised Rocco Baldelli’s 2026 Option

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Rocco Baldelli is in his seventh season as Minnesota’s manager. It was unclear whether his deal ran beyond this season, but the 43-year-old skipper is apparently signed for another year. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins have exercised their 2026 club option on Baldelli, though it’s unclear when they did so.

Minnesota did not make any kind of formal announcement at the time. Many teams do not publicly reveal the length of the contracts for their non-playing personnel, so that’s not a huge surprise. Baldelli being under contract for next season doesn’t mean the Twins couldn’t make a change before then. Still, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has been steadfast in his support for his longtime manager throughout their tenures in the Twin Cities.

Falvey again expressed confidence in Baldelli’s leadership today, ruling out the possibility of making a change at the moment. “It’s just making sure no one runs away from the work that is right in front of him, and Rocco is not running away from any of the work. … We’re all side by side with him, as is the staff and as our core players,” Falvey told Hayes. “We’re trying to figure it out together.”

The Twins have made the postseason in three of Baldelli’s six full seasons. They won the AL Central in each of 2019, ’20 and ’23 but only won one playoff series in that time. They’re 3-8 in the postseason since Baldelli was hired. They looked on track for another playoff berth late last season, peaking at 17 games above .500 in the middle of August. They collapsed to a 12-27 finish over the final six weeks, ultimately landing at 82-80 and on the outside looking in.

That dreadful run carried into this April, as the Twins won only seven of their first 22 games. They picked things up in the second half of the month and ripped off a 13-game win streak — which remains easily the longest by any team this year — in the middle of May. They climbed as high as seven games over .500 earlier this month, but June has been a disaster.

Injuries to Pablo López and Zebby Matthews have dealt a huge hit to the rotation, and none of their starters have pitched well in recent weeks. The bullpen has been even worse, allowing more than seven earned runs per nine innings this month. They entered play tonight with an MLB-worst 6.59 ERA overall in June. That’ll climb even more after Bailey Ober and Joey Wentz were torched for 11 runs by the Mariners tonight. They just wrapped up a defeat that drops them to 37-41 on the season. They have lost 14 of their last 18 games.

Blue Jays Release Erik Swanson

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The Blue Jays have released reliever Erik Swanson, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams. Toronto designated him for assignment last Tuesday. Swanson has already gone unclaimed on waivers and is a free agent.

Swanson spent two-plus seasons with the Jays. Acquired from the Mariners in the Teoscar Hernández trade, the righty had an excellent first season north of the border. Swanson turned in a 2.97 ERA while leading the team with 29 holds across 66 2/3 innings in 2023. That followed a sterling 1.68 ERA showing in his final season with Seattle. He hasn’t maintained that production over the past couple seasons, at least in part due to injury.

The 31-year-old Swanson missed a couple weeks early last season with forearm inflammation. He wasn’t effective when he returned and spent a couple months on optional assignment to Triple-A Buffalo. He looked to be trending towards a non-tender until finding some positive momentum in the second half. Swanson was recalled not long after the All-Star Break and managed a 2.55 ERA with a .172 opponent batting average down the stretch.

Toronto retained Swanson on a $3MM arbitration salary. That would’ve been a bargain if he repeated his second half numbers. Injuries again intervened. Swanson missed the first two months battling a nerve issue in his throwing arm. He was activated on June 1 but allowed runs in four of his six appearances, including three-plus runs in each of his final two outings. His average fastball speed has dropped a tick to 92.9 MPH and he has given up nine runs with five walks and three strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings.

The Jays will remain on the hook for the rest of Swanson’s salary. He wouldn’t cost a new team anything other than a roster spot. They’d pay only the prorated portion of the $760K league minimum for any time he spends on the MLB roster, which would be subtracted from Toronto’s responsibility. His 2022-23 production will at least generate interest on minor league offers, and it wouldn’t be a complete surprise if another team is willing to plug him directly into the MLB bullpen for the league minimum.

Tyler Nevin Signs Two-Year Extension With NPB’s Seibu Lions

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The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they have signed infielder Tyler Nevin to a two-year extension beginning in 2026. Salary figures were not included. “I’d like to express my sincere gratitude to my teammates, staff, and fans who have trusted me and supported me since the day I arrived in Japan,” Nevin said in a Japanese statement relayed by the team, per Google Translate. “I will strive to make the rest of the season even better and focus on the game in front of me. I can’t wait for the next two years. Awesome!”

Nevin, 28, signed with the Lions in January. His Japanese career has gotten out to a solid start through his first 68 games. His .269/.330/.379 batting line may not be overwhelming in a vacuum but actually translates to a 120 wRC+ in NPB this year. It seems that the club has been pleased enough with that performance to lock him up.

Considering the way Nevin’s career went before this year, it’s understandable that he would agree to be locked up. Broadly speaking, he had always hit in the minors but failed to do so in the majors. From 2022 to 2024, he stepped to the plate 639 times at the Triple-A level. He hit 26 home runs and drew walks at a 10.2% clip while only striking out 17.5% of the time. He had a combined batting line of .313/.391/.536 and a 137 wRC+.

That minor league performance got him a few major league looks from the Orioles, Tigers and Athletics, but he wasn’t able to do much with those chances. He got 591 big league plate appearances over the past few years with a .204/.299/.315 line and 81 wRC+. He exhausted his final option year in 2023, which put him into a fringe roster status. He spent 2024 bouncing on and off the Athletics’ roster, clearing waivers multiple times throughout the year. Finding regular playing time in the big leagues would have been difficult going forward.

Rather than spend another year grinding through the roster bubble lifestyle, he accepted a chance to head overseas and perhaps find some stability. Given that he’s having a decent year, he could have tried to parlay that into a return to North America in 2026. But there would have been no guarantee of that working out, so it’s easy to see the logic in him sticking with the Lions for another few years.

Though the salary figures haven’t been reported for this deal, North American players getting regular work in Japan often get paid in the vicinity of $1MM annually. That’s more than players in the minors in North America get and even more than pre-arbitration major leaguers. Whatever his salary is, Nevin will get a bit of cash and some job security for his age-29 and age-30 seasons. If he can make the most of that regular role, he could perhaps try to return to affiliated ball a few years from now or secure himself another deal to continue playing in Asia.

Photo courtesy of Darren Yamashita, Imagn Images

Royals Option Kyle Wright

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The Royals announced today that right-hander Kyle Wright has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Omaha. He had been pitching on a rehab assignment but the club has decided to have him stick in the minors a while longer, as opposed to adding him to the big league roster.

As of a few years ago, the idea of optioning Wright to the minors would have been a huge surprise. In 2022, he made 30 starts for Atlanta, going 21-5 and logging 180 1/3 innings. He had a 3.19 earned run average, 23.6% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 55.6% ground ball rate. He then tossed six shutout innings in his lone playoff start of that year. He finished 10th in National League Cy Young voting.

It’s been rougher sledding since then. He only tossed 31 innings in the 2023 season due to shoulder issues which eventually required surgery. The Royals acquired him ahead of the 2024 season, even though they knew he was likely to miss all of that campaign. He eventually did miss that entire season while the Royals paid him $1.8MM. They agreed to pay him that same salary figure this year.

The hope was that Wright could potentially help them in 2025 and 2026 after recovering from his shoulder surgery, which hasn’t come to pass yet. His shoulder was still enough of an issue for him to start this year on the 15-day IL. He started a rehab assignment in early May but was pulled off that due to shoulder fatigue after just two starts. He restarted that rehab assignment on May 25th and has since made six starts, two at Double-A and four at Triple-A.

Rehab assignments for pitchers can last as long as 30 days, so Wright was coming to the end of his window, but his results in those rehab outings weren’t especially impressive. His four Triple-A outings resulted in a 6.23 ERA. He did strike out 23% of batters faced but also gave out walks at a 14.8% clip. Perhaps there’s still some rust to shake off or he’s still building strength. He averaged over 95 miles per hour on his fastball in 2022 but has only been at 92 mph at Triple-A so far this year.

The club’s current rotation likely played a role in the decision as well. Even with Cole Ragans on the IL, Kansas City’s starting group is quite strong. It’s anchored by a solid trio of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic. They have Michael Lorenzen as a solid back-end guy. Rookie Noah Cameron has a 2.08 ERA through his first eight big league starts.

The combination of the strength of that group and Wright appearing as though he still needs some fine tuning has seemingly blocked his path back to the majors for now. It makes for an interesting situation for the Royals with the deadline now just over a month away. Ragans may be close to a return by the end of July. If the rest of the group stays healthy, they may have a relative surplus of starting pitching. Trading away from that surplus would be dangerous, especially with the rate of pitching injuries in the modern game, but it could be a way for the club to add some more offense.

Wright came into this year with four years and 62 days of major league service time, 110 shy of the five-year mark. By my count he has added 88 days so far here in 2025, though the clock now stops ticking with this option. He is making a relative modest salary, as mentioned. If he doesn’t have a spot in the Royals’ rotation now and Ragans is coming back, perhaps they could consider making him available. Lorenzen is also one a one-year deal and likely wouldn’t be part of the club’s planned playoff rotation, so perhaps he could end up on the block as well.

This optional assignment could also impact Wright personally. As mentioned, he is still shy of five years of service. If he stays in the minors the rest of the year, it would delay his path to free agency, though he may end up a non-tender candidate in that scenario. He has just one option remaining and will be out of options next year if this assignment last 20 days or longer.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

White Sox Outright Caleb Freeman

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White Sox right-hander Caleb Freeman went unclaimed on outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A Charlotte, reports James Fegan of Sox Machine. He doesn’t have either the three years of big league service time or the prior outright assignment needed to reject this assignment in favor of free agency, so Freeman will remain with the organization as a depth arm.

The 27-year-old Freeman made his big league debut with the South Siders this season, tossing 3 1/3 innings over the course of five appearances. He allowed a pair of runs on five hits (one homer) and a walk with three strikeouts. The Sox’ 15th-round pick in 2019, Freeman has pitched to a 2.93 ERA in a combined 27 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this season — but has done so with an alarming 17.1% walk rate.

Command has been an issue for Freeman throughout his minor league tenure, but he’s also fanned 27% of his opponents in parts of six professional seasons. Freeman sits 95 mph with heater and pairs the pitch with an 82-83 mph curveball and a slider that sits 87-88 mph. It’s possible he’ll get another look with the Sox later this summer, particularly if the Sox wind up trading some of the more veteran members of their bullpen ahead of next month’s deadline.

Poll: AL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. With an MVP set to be crowned in both leagues after the season, that means two players are already halfway through a year that will earn them the sport’s most prestigious individual award. Who are the frontrunners to claim the trophy for themselves this offseason? We’ll be looking at both leagues over the next two days, starting with the American League:

Aaron Judge

Major stars like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Kyle Tucker have migrated to the National League in recent years, but Judge would arguably have entered the season as the odds-on favorite even if he were still competing with them. The slugger already won the MVP award in both 2022 and ’24. Ohtani won back-to-back MVP awards in 2023 and ’24, but those were for two different teams in two different leagues. Judge would be the first player to win back-to-back MVPs in the same league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and ’13. Uncommon as the feat may be, Judge seems well positioned to pull it off. His .367/.468/.727 (225 wRC+) slash line is nothing short of comical, and he already has an absurd 6.0 WAR season according to Fangraphs through just 77 games.

That’s a higher total than stars like Jackson Merrill and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were able to cobble together in a full slate of games last year, and it’s hard to argue with those numbers. Dominant as Judge has been, however, it must be pointed out that he’s currently benefiting from an eye-popping .453 BABIP. That figure is 100 points higher than his career mark, which is already at the high end of the spectrum for sustainable BABIP figures. It would be the highest BABIP by a qualified player since 1871 if he were to maintain it over a full season, and just the second time a player posted a BABIP of even .400 since 2002, joining Yoan Moncada’s 2019 campaign.

Cal Raleigh

If anyone has a chance to challenge Judge for the title, Raleigh likely has the best shot. He’s hit a whopping 31 home runs this season to capture the MLB-wide lead, and his .276/.383/.659 (191 wRC+) slash line is almost as incredible as that of Judge. Raleigh’s 5.1 fWAR is second in the majors to Judge as well, and he’s even managed to chip in on the bases by swiping nine bags in 11 opportunities. Of course, the most impressive thing about Raleigh’s season is that he’s doing all of this while playing the game’s most taxing defensive position. He’s caught 58 of the 75 games he’s appeared in, and if he keeps this up over the full season he’d surpass legendary seasons by Buster Posey in 2012 and Johnny Bench in 1972 to put together the best season behind the plate in MLB history.

The biggest obstacle to Raleigh turning this first-half momentum into an MVP win is, of course, Judge. While Raleigh has the edge in terms of baserunning, defense, home runs, and strikeout rate, Judge is leading in WAR, wRC+, walk rate, all three triple slash categories, and games played. There’s no question about whose season has been more productive when stripping away the context of Raleigh’s position, and Judge might need to cool off significantly in the second half just for their numbers to be comparable when all is said and done.

Bobby Witt Jr.

After finishing second to Judge in 2024 AL MVP voting with a stellar campaign, Witt is back at it this year with another banner year. His elite shortstop glove has made him the second most valuable defender in baseball according to Fangraphs, and he’s already stolen 21 bases after swiping just 31 total last year. With that being said, the power that allowed him to swat 32 homers last year has taken a big step back. The drop off in power has left him with a .286/.343/.490 (123 wRC+) slash line that’s well above average but not quite MVP-caliber, and he would likely need to turn things up a notch in the second half and benefit from steps backward by Judge and Raleigh in order to have a chance at coming home with the trophy.

Jeremy Pena

Perhaps the most surprising entrant into this list, Pena has never so much as made an All-Star appearance in his career but is in the midst of an incredible season. He’s slashed .326/.380/.493 (149 wRC+) in 78 games so far this year with 11 homers and 15 steals in 17 attempts alongside an excellent 16.1% strikeout rate. That wRC+ is seventh-highest among qualified AL hitters, and Pena benefits further from playing a valuable defensive position in shortstop. With that being said, he’s not quite on the level of Witt defensively and his .365 BABIP is elevated well outside the range of his career norms. Like Witt, he’ll likely need a massive slowdown in production from Judge and Raleigh in order to be a serious contender for the award this year.

Other Options

Judge, Raleigh, Witt, and Pena are all more or less in a class of their own at this point in the season, and even Witt and Pena would need a lot to go right in order for them to catch the two front-runners. With that being said, there are some other at least plausible candidates. Tarik Skubal continues to dominate on the mound and his 3.9 fWAR tally matches that of Witt and Pena. Jose Ramirez remains as consistent as ever and could put up another 30-30 season this year. Jonathan Aranda has been one of baseball’s best hitters this year but doesn’t play a premium position. Byron Buxton has flashed all five tools this year with strong defense, elite speed, and a 155 wRC+ but will have trouble garnering much attention with just 60 games played so far.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL MVP voting? Will Judge reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Raleigh step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Rangers Select Dane Dunning

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The Rangers announced that they have selected right-hander Dane Dunning to their roster. Fellow righty Caleb Boushley has been optioned as the corresponding active roster move. The 40-man roster already had a vacancy.

The Rangers have been running a four-man rotation in recent weeks, having lost both Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle to the injured list. Behind starters Jacob deGrom, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Patrick Corbin, the club has had Boushley and Jacob Latz serving as multi-inning relievers. Leiter started yesterday and only lasted four innings, with Boushley getting the final four. The club lost on the road, meaning the bottom of the ninth didn’t need to be played.

Boushley likely wasn’t going to be available for a few days, so he’ll be swapped out. Corbin is taking the ball tonight but there’s likely going to be some sort of bullpen game tomorrow. The club then has deGrom likely to go on Wednesday with an off-day on Thursday and Eovaldi potentially returning after that. But in the meantime, they are still limping for a few more days and could need guys like Latz and Dunning to soak up some innings over the next few days.

Dunning, 30, has had some decent seasons for the Rangers but his results have backed up over the past year or so. He got bumped to the bullpen last year and has been bouncing off and on the roster this year. That’s due to the fact that he’s making a $2.66MM salary this year, which is preventing other clubs from claiming him off waivers. As a player with between three and five years of major league service time, he can reject an outright assignment but would have to forfeit his remaining salary commitments in order to do so. Twice this year, he has been passed through waivers and then accepted an outright assignment to Round Rock.

The club’s current pitching predicament will get him back to the majors yet again. He has just three big league innings pitched on the year, spending most of this time with Round Rock. For the Express, he has thrown 46 1/3 innings over 12 appearances with a 4.77 earned run average, 24.4% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 46.8% ground ball rate.

Photo courtesy of William Purnell, Imagn Images

Cubs Select Michael Fulmer

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The Cubs announced today that they have selected the contract of right-hander Michael Fulmer. Fellow right-hander Nate Pearson has been optioned to Triple-A Iowa as the corresponding active roster move. The 40-man roster had a vacancy but is now full.

Fulmer pitched briefly with the Red Sox earlier this year but was cut loose after yielding three runs in just 2 2/3 innings. That marked the end of what was a relatively long match between the two parties. The 2016 American League Rookie of the Year (as a starter with the Tigers) had signed a two-year minor league contract with Boston and spent the entire 2024 season and early 2025 season rehabbing with Boston’s staff. He signed with the Cubs on a minor league pact in late April.

That looks to have been a potentially nice pickup for the Cubs, who are no stranger to Fulmer after he spent the 2023 season in Chicago’s bullpen. So far in his second stint with the Cubs, Fulmer has pitched 24 1/3 Triple-A frames with a tidy 2.96 ERA. He’s fanned a gaudy 32% of his opponents but also issued walks at an inflated 11% clip. Fulmer’s heater isn’t close to the 95.5 mph it averaged at peak, but he saw a modest bump from 92.4 mph during his time with the Red Sox to 92.9 mph with the Cubs’ affiliate in Iowa.

As tends to be the case, the Cubs are patching their bullpen together on the fly this year. Porter Hodge, who had a nice rookie showing in 2024, has missed more than a month due to an oblique strain. Ryan Pressly, the Cubs’ primary offseason acquisition in the bullpen, was shaky early before being absolute torpedoed for eight earned runs without recording an out in a May 6 drubbing at the hands of the Giants. He’s still working to recover from that damage, but Pressly rattled off 15 straight scoreless innings with a 14-to-3 K/BB ratio thereafter. He served up two earned runs in his most recent appearance — his first runs allowed since that calamitous Giants appearance.

The rest of the bullpen consists of journeymen and reclamation projects. Chicago currently has Drew Pomeranz, Chris Flexen, Brad Keller, Ryan Brasier and Caleb Thielbar in the bullpen — all 30-something veterans on one-year deals. (Keller will turn 30 next month.) The lone exception is young Daniel Palencia, who’s been handling save situations recently and looks to be handling the job well. He’s picked up seven saves while posting a 1.93 ERA in 28 frames this year. That includes a 1.46 ERA and 14-to-3 K/BB ratio in 12 1/3 innings since being moved into the ninth inning.

Fulmer will join that cast of 30-something veterans and hope he can find similar success to Keller, Pomeranz, Thielbar, Flexen and Brasier — all of whom improbably sport ERAs of 2.20 or better.

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