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MLBTR Poll: Bounce-Back Year For Rockies?

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A year ago at this time, the Rockies were just months removed from their second consecutive playoff season. It was the first time in the franchise’s existence that it had earned back-to-back playoff berths, and Colorado likely expected the good times to keep rolling in 2019. Instead, the Rockies ended up as one of the majors’ worst teams, finishing 71-91 en route to a fourth-place standing in the National League West.

We’re nearing a new season, but the Rockies don’t look like a team that’ll make a significant rebound in 2020. For one, multiple teams in the Rockies’ division figure to serve as roadblocks to potential improvement. The Dodgers should find themselves among the game’s best teams again, while the Diamondbacks and Padres look to have gotten better since last season.

The Rockies, like their division-rival Giants, have done little to nothing to bolster their roster since the previous campaign concluded. They’ve signed only one major league free agent – inexpensive right-hander Jose Mujica – and have managed to alienate their franchise player. Third baseman Nolan Arenado, who signed a seven-year, $234MM extension last February, has come up in trade talks in recent months. Additionally, he has expressed his unhappiness toward the Rockies for not upgrading the roster around him.

Despite an offseason of rumors, the 28-year-old remains a Rockie – someone they’re currently hoping will help them back to playoff position this season. But it doesn’t appear he has a ton of offensive support beyond shortstop Trevor Story and the outfield tandem of Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl. Meanwhile, Colorado’s rotation was ghastly a year ago, but there haven’t been notable changes in that area. The club’s instead betting on bounce-back years from holdovers such as Kyle Freeland, Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw.

While they’ve done almost nothing on paper to improve themselves since last year’s woeful showing, there’s internal optimism the Rockies will be much better this season. Owner Dick Monfort said earlier this month he believes the Rockies will win 94 games. That’s an especially sanguine prediction for an organization that has never amassed more than 92 victories in a season. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections strongly disagree with Monfort, pegging the Rockies for 77 wins. Granted, those projections aren’t the end-all, be-all – they called for an 85-win Rockies season before 2019 – so perhaps Monfort’s not as delusional as he seems. Regardless, assuming they begin the season with Arenado on their roster, how do you expect the Rockies’ year to turn out?

(Poll link for app users)

Camp Battles: The Indians’ Outfield

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For a team that has averaged 95 wins a year over the last four seasons, the Indians have consistently taken a mix-and-match approach to their outfield amidst this run of success.  Of course, having star infielders (i.e. Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez) and a seemingly neverending pipeline of starting talent can allow a club to put less of a focus on its outfielders, and Cleveland would’ve ideally hoped that more of its highly-regarded outfield prospects would have taken the leap to everyday status by this point.  Still, the Tribe is now entering a fifth season of outfield uncertainty, and hoping that at least one of its question marks can enjoy a true breakout campaign.

Let’s begin with the one everyday lock in Oscar Mercado, though Mercado’s actual position on a game-by-game basis could be in flux.  The 25-year-old is coming off a solid rookie season that saw him perform decently well at the plate (95 wRC+, 96 OPS+) and impressively well with the glove in 698 2/3 innings in center field — +6 Outs Above Average, +5.8 UZR/150, +9 Defensive Runs Saved.  It’s safe to assume that Mercado will get the lion’s share of time in center again in 2020, though his ability to play all three positions will allow manager Terry Francona to shift other players into the outfield based on matchups.

Those other players?  It’s quite a long list:

  • Delino DeShields: Depending on your defensive metric of choice, DeShields was either slightly behind (UZR/150, DRS) Mercado in defensive value last season, or ahead (Statcast ranked DeShields tied for fifth among all outfielders in baseball with +12 OAA in 2019), plus DeShields has a longer track record of outstanding glovework.  It stands to reason that DeShields will handle center when Mercado is used in the corners, though it remains to be seen if DeShields will hit enough to move beyond mere fourth-outfielder duty.  The 27-year-old hit only .246/.326/.342 over 1936 career plate appearances with the Rangers, though it’s possible the change of scenery from Texas to Cleveland could help.
  • Domingo Santana: Signed to a one-year MLB contract (with a 2021 club option) earlier this week, Santana is decidedly not an option in center field, and even the corner outfield might be a stretch for a player who posted some of the worst defensive numbers of any player in baseball.  If Santana does indeed end up being used mostly as a designated hitter, the fact that he was signed at all could hint at the Tribe’s belief that…
  • Franmil Reyes is capable of better things as a right fielder after two seasons of mediocre fielding.  Acquired as part of the three-team Trevor Bauer blockbuster last summer, Reyes hit .249/.310/.512 with 37 home runs over 548 PA between the Padres and Indians in 2019.  The power is already there and the overall hitting potential has shown some flashes of improvement, and though Cleveland used Reyes almost exclusively at DH after the trade, the team surely hopes that they can get at least a couple of seasons’ worth of passable fielding work from Reyes to maximize his overall roster value (even if a mostly-DH role is ultimately in his future).
  • Jordan Luplow: Among all qualified hitters in 2019, only J.D. Martinez and Alex Bregman had a higher wRC+ against left-handed pitching than Luplow, who crushed southpaws to the tune of a .320/.439/.742 slash line and 198 wRC+ over 155 PA.  Even with other big righty bats like Santana and Reyes on hand, Luplow’s incredible splits will ensure that he’ll at least see platoon action, and Luplow has the added defensive edge of being able to play the corners decently well (and could even handle center field in a pinch).  If Luplow is to play a larger role, he’ll have to greatly improve his desultory .596 career OPS over 225 PA against right-handed pitching.
  • Greg Allen: The switch-hitting Allen offers a bit of balance to all of these right-handed hitters, though he hasn’t much from either side of the plate over 586 Major League plate appearances.  Allen can technically play all three outfield positions, though his glovework in the corners is much more highly regarded than his performance in center field.  Assuming at least one of the left-handed bats remaining on this listing emerges, Allen may find himself beginning the 2020 season in the minors.
  • Tyler Naquin: He likely won’t factor into the Opening Day picture, as much as Naquin is making excellent progress after suffering a torn ACL at the end of August.  Still, Naquin looks on pace to return on the shorter end of his original seven-to-nine month recovery period, which adds another left-handed bat to the Indians’ mix.  2019 was shaping up as easily Naquin’s best season since his 2016 rookie year, so a post-hype breakout might yet be in the cards for Naquin if he can get healthy.
  • Jake Bauers: Acquired as part of last offseason’s three-team deal that brought Carlos Santana back to Cleveland, Bauers’ first year with the Tribe was a disaster, as he posted an overall sub-replacement season (-0.4 fWAR) while struggling at both the plate and in the field.  Bauers is still only 24 years old and is a former top-100 prospect, so it’s clearly far too early for the Indians to give up on him, but he’ll be on a much shorter leash than last season.
  • Bradley Zimmer: Speaking of former top prospects, Zimmer missed almost all of the 2018-19 seasons due to shoulder surgery.  MLB.com ranked Zimmer as the 22nd-best prospect in baseball entering the 2017 campaign, but a forgettable rookie season and then his extended injury absence turned Zimmer from building block to afterthought.  He could be the biggest wild card of any player on this list, assuming Zimmer is healthy.
  • Daniel Johnson: A part of the three-player package the Indians received from the Nationals in the November 2018 Yan Gomes trade, Johnson’s first season in Cleveland’s farm system was a successful one, as he hit .290/.361/.507 over 547 combined PA at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.  MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Johnson’s strong throwing arm and overall defense alone could earn him steady work as a fourth outfielder at the big league level, so if he can manage to hit as well, there’s certainly room for Johnson gain playing time with the Tribe.

One bit of good news for the Indians in sorting out all these players is that they don’t face any specific roster crunch, as Santana is the only one of these players who no longer has a minor league option.  That affords Francona and the front office the opportunity to freely evaluate these players during Spring Training without feeling forced into a tough roster choice based on team control.  Given the sheer number of outfielders on hand, it also wouldn’t be entirely shocking if the Tribe dealt away from this surplus.  If a few of these names really stand out during camp, Cleveland might feel comfortable enough in its depth to consider one of the other players expendable if another outfield-needy team came calling with an interesting trade offer.

Blue Jays’ Mark Shapiro On Hyun-Jin Ryu Signing

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Although they were then coming off a 67-win campaign and their third straight year without a playoff berth, the Blue Jays still managed to reel in one of the offseason’s highest-ranked free agents. They added former Dodgers southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu on a four-year, $80MM contract – the largest deal they’ve awarded since Mark Shapiro became team president late in the 2015 season. Shapiro discussed the Ryu signing, among other topics, with Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Ryu was tremendous at times in Los Angeles, especially from 2018-19, and will now slot into the top of Toronto’s revamped rotation from the get-go. Still, the commitment the Blue Jays made to Ryu no doubt comes with its share of risk. The club is far from a sure thing to be an immediate contender, for one, so Ryu’s contributions early in the deal may not lead to a vast amount of team success. He’s also set to enter his age-33 season and has seldom been the picture of durability since debuting in 2013. Last year marked the first time since 2014 that Ryu threw more than 150 innings in a season.

The Blue Jays are obviously excited about having won the Ryu derby, but Shapiro acknowledged to Davidi that “time will tell the value return” on the pact. He continued: “Free-agent starting pitching in general is a high-risk market and we’re very aware of that. That’s why we’re so careful. You don’t pound your chest over signing someone. You have all your reasons for doing it, you know the risks going in. We identified the need and felt this was one of the best opportunities for us to get better and take a step.”

The Jays are hopeful Ryu will provide value in each year of the contract, but if most of it comes toward the beginning of it, “It’s certainly not ideal but it’s certainly not disastrous,” Shapiro said. He admitted that “contracts get more risky as a player ages, so you would expect to get more on the front side.”

Toronto’s cognizant that it took a chance in signing Ryu, but the fact that the team has so much young, inexpensive talent gave it the necessary “financial flexibility” to make that gamble. With Ryu on the roster, Shapiro’s all the more confident that the Blue Jays are “going to be good,” thanks in part to the “mass of talent” they’ve built up in recent years.

NL East Notes: Acuna, Nats, Mets

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Let’s check in on a few NL East clubs…

  • In his two years in the majors, Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. has divided his time between the corner outfield and center. He’s slated to open 2020 in right field – the OF position he has played the least during his career. But the Braves are bullish on Acuna in right – particularly because of his arm – and he’s more than happy to play there, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. The 22-year-old told Burns that right’s “a position I feel more comfortable at.” That’s good news for Atlanta, which expects Acuna to line up there not just this year, but for the majority of his career, per Burns.
  • As was reported in December, Nationals right-hander Erick Fedde has a fourth minor league option. Fedde found out that’s the case from his father, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. “Hey, I was reading an article online saying you have a fourth option,” Fedde’s father said in a text message. “Dad, don’t be dumb. Fourth options are not a thing,” Fedde replied. But they can be “a thing” if you’ve used your three options and totaled fewer than five professional seasons as a major or league leaguer. That applies to Fedde, a 2014 first-round pick who didn’t make his pro debut until June 2015 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Fedde called it “maybe an unfortunate bounce” that he’ll be optionable for another year, but he told Zuckerman he’s pleased he’ll at least get to stay in the Washington organization. While Fedde could still end up as part of the Nationals’ rotation sometime this season, he has struggled as a major leaguer so far. Despite a 51 percent groundball rate, the 26-year-old has put up a 5.39 ERA/5.32 FIP with 6.39 K/9 and 3.95 BB/99 in 143 2/3 innings.
  • Mets right-handed pitching prospect Jordan Humphreys underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2017 and has since thrown just two innings, both at the rookie level last year. Still recovering from the procedure last summer, Humphreys considered calling it a career, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com relays. However, as DiComo details, Mets rehab pitching coordinator Jon Debus encouraged Humphreys to keep going. He listened, and after an encouraging showing in the Arizona Fall League, he’s now on the Mets’ 40-man roster and in big league camp. “I’m glad to be here. I’m finally healthy,” Humphreys, MLB.com’s 22nd-ranked Mets prospect, told DiComo.

AL East Notes: Lucroy, Rays, Blue Jays

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As Yankees righty Luis Severino gets some unwelcome news on his birthday, here’s the latest from around the AL East…

  • Ron Roenicke was Jonathan Lucroy’s manager with the Brewers for over four seasons, and with Roenicke now serving as the Red Sox interim manager, he was the motivating factor in convincing Jonathan Lucroy to sign with Boston.  “He called me and he wanted me to come.  It was a big one,” Lucroy told reporters, including MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and MLB.com’s Ian Browne.  “He’s like, you’ll get an opportunity to come here and make the team.  Right now, that’s all you can ask for with a guy in my position.”  Lucroy signed a minor league contract with the Sox after a pretty quiet stint in free agency, as Cotillo notes that Lucroy “negotiated with a few clubs who backed out of deals at the last minute.”  This isn’t to say that Lucroy is surprised at how his trip through the free agent market went, given his struggles over the last three seasons: “Analytically, I’ve been terrible.  Seriously. I’m not trying to make excuses.  I’m not surprised I didn’t get a big league offer.”  Now, Lucroy is reunited with his old skipper and will compete with Kevin Plawecki for the backup catching position.
  • The Rays are known for cycling different players through a position rather than having a set everyday starter, and MLB.com’s Juan Toribio examines how the club will juggle its many third base options.  Yandy Diaz, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Joey Wendle, Daniel Robertson, Nate Lowe, and Mike Brosseau could all factor into Tampa Bay’s choices at the hot corner, while also being rotated around to other positions on the diamond.  Diaz is expected to get the majority of playing time, while Tsutsugo’s readiness at third base is perhaps the biggest wild card in the mix, as he hasn’t played the position since 2014 as a member of the Yokohama BayStars.
  • The Blue Jays face some interesting decisions with their bench mix, as the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm observes that slugger Rowdy Tellez might not make the Opening Day roster.  Since minor league signing Joe Panik “is almost a sure bet to be included on the roster” as a utilityman and outfielders Derek Fisher and Anthony Alford are both out of options, this trio might have the advantage over Tellez, who is defensively limited to only first base.  Tellez has shown some strong power (25 homers, .475 slugging percentage) over 482 MLB plate appearances, though is somewhat one-dimensional at the plate, as evidenced by his .241 career average and .299 OBP.  Fisher and Alford will both need to perform well this spring to block Tellez, however, and Chisholm notes that Brandon Drury also isn’t a lock for the roster, as the Blue Jays could opt to cut Drury and just go with Panik as the primary utility player.  Since Drury was an arbitration-eligible player, releasing him before Opening Day would leave the Jays on the hook for just a small portion of his $2.05MM salary.  If Drury was released, Chisholm speculates Toronto could potentially put those savings towards signing another veteran player who might become available as teams trim their rosters in advance of the season opener.

Mike Bolsinger Sues Astros Over Sign-Stealing Scheme

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TODAY: Astros owner Jim Crane and front office staff member Derek Vigoa have been added to Bolsinger’s suit, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.  Vigoa was one of the members of the Astros’ analytics department who were allegedly behind the development of the “Codebreaker” system, as per the details of the piece by the Wall Street Journal’s Jared Diamond earlier this month exploring more details in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  Bolsinger’s “initial complaint named the Astros organization but included so-called Doe defendants, allowing it to be amended to add individuals allegedly involved,” Passan writes, so potentially more names could still be added to Bolsinger’s lawsuit.

FEBRUARY 10: Former big league hurler Mike Bolsinger has filed a lawsuit against the Houston Astros, Nancy Armour of USA Today reports. The action was filed in California state court.

Bolsinger, a 32-year-old righty, has never pitched for the Astros. He hasn’t even played for an affiliated club in the past two seasons; instead, he suited up for Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines.

It’s that departure from the major-league ranks that forms the factual basis for Bolsinger’s long-shot litigation. His last MLB appearance came in a Blue Jays uniform. It turned out to be a brutal August 4, 2017 outing — the very same game in which the trashcan banging scheme reached its apparent zenith. Bolsinger ended up being dumped by the Jays the day after he was tuned up by the sign-stealing ’Stros.

There is little question that the terrible results sealed Bolsinger’s fate, though that hardly establishes his right to relief (or even to pursue the suit). There are a host of potential roadblocks here. Before things can progress at all, his lawyers will have to show how their alleged facts combine to support one of his proffered theories (per the report, they’ve pled unfair business practices, negligence, and intentional interference with contractual and economic relations). Perhaps the Astros will also argue that this matter ought to be resolved before an MLB arbitrator.

Things could get interesting if Bolsinger is able to get into the discovery phase. Full details of the trashcan scheme would assuredly be relevant to his claim. In theory, there’d be a host of fascinating factual questions relating to the game of baseball and the Astros’ deep knowledge of it, all of which Bolsinger’s counsel could try to explore through requests for documents and depositions of key figures. No doubt they’d want all the evidence the league considered in issuing punishment. Testimony from the Astros players that faced Bolsinger — current Astros regulars Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel, since-retired MLB stars Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann, and four others who’ve since moved to other organizations — would assuredly be germane to the case.

Thinking of how a case might be argued to a jury of non-baseball fans is even more interesting. What of Bolsinger’s thin performance history in the majors? Or the fact that he had twice previously been designated that season by the Jays? Service time, spin rate, 40-man rosters, scouting reports, September call-ups, league-minimum salary … it’d all be open for laypeople to assess.

There will be quite a few opportunities for this matter to go away without much of interest taking place. The case seems sure to be removed to federal court; it could involve whole rounds of litigation over whether it can even be heard and if so in what venue. Finding a legal claim to suit the facts isn’t straightforward, so it could get kicked on a motion to dismiss. If Bolsinger’s side can make it past some initial hurdles, the Astros might try to settle it out. There’d surely be some major battles over how much information can be obtained through discovery. Once all the cards are on the table, there’ll be yet more ways for the Houston club to halt the proceedings (summary judgment, further settlement talks).

Baseball surely doesn’t want this matter to see a public trial. It’s not likely that it will. But it’s also hard not to imagine what that might look like.

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Opening Day is about a month away, and here at MLB Trade Rumors it’s time to look ahead to the 2020-21 free agent class.  These players are on track to become free agents after the 2020 season, but a lot can change before we reach that point.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2020-21 open market earning power.  You can see the full list of 2020-21 MLB free agents here.

1.  Mookie Betts.  A superstar right fielder who doesn’t turn 28 until October, Betts has a shot at the largest contract in MLB history.  That record is held by Mike Trout, who agreed to a 10-year, $360MM extension with the Angels one year ago.  Trout is better than Betts and everyone else, but he didn’t subject himself to an open-market bidding war.  Bryce Harper ($330MM) and Manny Machado ($300MM) did, albeit in a colder free agent environment than the one that just closed, which awarded Gerrit Cole a surprising $324MM.  Betts, a projected 6-WAR player for the 2020 Dodgers, could reasonably seek a ten-year term with an average annual value in the $36-40MM range.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Betts turned down an eight-year, $200MM extension offer from the Red Sox after the 2017 season, while WEEI’s Lou Merloni says Boston offered a contract in the “ten year, $300MM range” fresh off Betts’ 2018 MVP campaign.  According to Merloni, Betts’ camp countered at 12 years, $420MM.  I know there’s an undercurrent that Betts’ reported counteroffer is ridiculous, but in reality, it reflects his market value.  He would be justified in seeking an AAV north of Anthony Rendon’s $35MM, and a term no shorter than the 10+ years achieved by Trout, Harper, Machado, Giancarlo Stanton, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, and Joey Votto.

2.  J.T. Realmuto.  The largest free agent contract ever for a catcher is well within Realmuto’s sights.  The Phillies’ backstop, 29 in March, is one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball.  He also rates strongly in pitch framing and stolen base prevention.  With Russell Martin being paid through age 36 and Yadier Molina through age 37, Realmuto could aim to be locked up through age 35, which would require an unprecedented six-year deal and top the $100MM mark.  Joe Mauer and Buster Posey have reached that plateau in extensions, but it’s never been done by a catcher in free agency.

3.  George Springer.  Springer, 30, is a tough player to value given the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  According to Tony Adams’ calculations, 14.4% of Springer’s home plate appearances in 2017 included trash can banging.  The outfielder put up a strong ’17 season, but his finest year to date has been 2019.  MLB did not uncover evidence of the Astros stealing signs in 2019.

I’m no Astros apologist, but if I had to guess, I’d say the team’s sign stealing had minimal effect on Springer’s production at the plate.  He was an excellent hitter while cheating, and will likely continue to be while playing by the rules.  The stigma surrounding Springer and his teammates will surely carry into the 2020-21 offseason, and I could see fans having a longer memory on this than they do on steroids.  For today’s many cold, calculating front offices, Springer’s complicity in the Astros’ scheme may simply translate as a small bargain in free agency.  I imagine many teams would exchange a little bad PR for a 5-WAR player at a discount, especially since Springer didn’t actually hurt anyone.

4.  Marcus Semien.  Though he finished third in the AL MVP voting this year, Semien remains an underrated star shortstop for the Athletics.  Semien, 30 in September, jumped from a league average bat to a 137 wRC+ in 2019.  Paired with above average defense, Semien’s 7.6 WAR ranked fifth among MLB position players.  What will he do for a follow-up?  How much of Semien’s career-best power and walk rate will stick?  If Semien settles in as a 120 wRC+, 5-WAR player with his typical excellent durability, he’d be justified in seeking a six-year contract well in excess of $100MM.  Back in November, Jon Heyman suggested interest was mutual for an extension.

5.  Trevor Bauer.  Bauer, 29, has one elite season on his resume.  His 2018 season for the Indians included a 2.21 ERA, but otherwise he’s never been below 4.18.  After being traded to the Reds at the July deadline last year, Bauer limped to a 6.39 ERA over his final ten starts, allowing 12 home runs in 56 1/3 innings.  Bauer is known for his passion for his craft and his extensive work with Driveline Baseball.  He’s also one of the game’s most outspoken players, which you can read about here, or as it relates to the Astros scandal, here.  Bauer’s comments and tweets could certainly give some suitors pause, but, true to form, he’s got different ideas about free agency too.  Bauer has found a way to pay less than the typical 5% agency fee, which seems wise, and he’s also pledged to sign only one-year deals.  That could mean, in a given offseason, forgoing was much as $100MM in guaranteed money to maximize his annual take.  It’s a risky, fascinating proposition, especially for a pitcher.  If Bauer is true to his word, I expect he’ll land in the $20-30MM range on a one-year deal, depending on his season.  His overall earning power is much higher.

6.  Robbie Ray.  Born five months apart, Ray and Marcus Stroman make for an interesting comparison.  Their results over the last three years have been similar in terms of games started and ERA, but Ray employs a high strikeout, high walk, homer-prone approach for the Diamondbacks while Stroman succeeds via the groundball.  They’re both roughly 3-WAR pitchers for 2020, but Ray might be of slightly greater interest due to his ability to miss bats.

7.  Marcus Stroman.  Stroman’s 53.7% groundball rate ranked fifth among qualified starters in 2019, and he’s second in baseball for 2017-19.  In these homer-happy times, Stroman has allowed just 0.89 HR/9 over the last three years.  Both he and Ray will likely be looking to top the four-year, $68MM deals signed by Nathan Eovaldi and Miles Mikolas, and five years isn’t out of the question.

8.  Justin Turner.  Over the past three seasons, Turner’s 145 wRC+ ranks eighth in baseball among qualified hitters – better than Anthony Rendon, Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, or Mookie Betts.  That mark dipped to a still-strong 132 in 2019, so the Dodgers’ third baseman remains an excellent hitter at age 35.  As you might expect, his defense is slipping.  Turner could still land a three-year deal at a strong salary, and he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer since he received one previously.

9.  DJ LeMahieu.  The Yankees’ two-year, $24MM deal with LeMahieu turned out to be one of the best deals of the offseason, as he posted a career-best 5.4 WAR.  The infielder had at least flirted with those heights once before, in 2016.  But much like Marcus Semien, LeMahieu’s free agent price tag could fluctuate quite a bit depending on how 2020 plays out.  A 4 WAR campaign could lead to a four-year contract.

10.  Nick Castellanos.  I debated between Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna for this last spot.  But the free agent market clearly preferred Castellanos, who is 15+ months younger, lacked a qualifying offer, and finished strong after being traded to the Cubs.  Perhaps that script could be flipped after 2020, especially since Castellanos can get a QO and Ozuna can’t.  But Castellanos seems primed to put up big offensive numbers in the Reds’ lineup, which could compel him to opt out of his remaining three years and $48MM and try to get a four-year deal again.

At this point, I’m assuming that the 2021 club options for Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, and Kolten Wong will vest or be picked up.  If not, you’d have to assume the player had a poor season.  I’m also assuming for now that Giancarlo Stanton will not opt out of his remaining seven years and $218MM.

The Power Rankings are fluid, however, and any of these Honorable Mentions could find their way on: Andrelton Simmons, Marcell Ozuna, Mike Minor, James Paxton, Didi Gregorius, Kirby Yates, Liam Hendriks, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jose Quintana.

Phillies Win Arbitration Hearing Against J.T. Realmuto

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The Phillies won their arbitration hearing against catcher J.T. Realmuto, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. He’ll earn the $10MM salary figure the team submitted for his final season of club control. Realmuto’s camp at CAA had filed for a $12.4MM sum (as shown in MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker).

Realmuto, who’ll turn 29 next month, enjoyed a strong first year with the Phillies in 2019 after being acquired in a trade that sent catcher Jorge Alfaro and top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez to the Marlins. In 145 games and 593 plate appearances, Realmuto slashed .275/.328/.493 with 25 home runs, 36 doubles, three triples and even nine stolen bases. He also paced the Majors with a 47 percent caught-stealing rate behind the dish and posted some of the best framing marks of his career.

The Phillies have made their interest in working out a long-term deal with Realmuto, and he’s voiced an openness if not a desire to remain in Philly for the long haul as well. While some might question whether the loss in an arb hearing will fracture that potential for a contract extension, Realmuto himself previously indicated that he doesn’t view the arbitration process in a negative light. “I know it’s not the Phillies trying to slight me at all,” he told reporters last month. “It’s more the system. There’s no hard feelings there.”

Given general manager Matt Klentak’s repeated praise for Realmuto, it’d be a surprise if the two sides didn’t at least try to work out an extension that’d keep the two-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger and one-time Gold Glove Award winner from reaching the open market next winter. As it stands, though, Realmuto ranks among the top five projected free agents next year.

With the Phillies’ win over Realmuto, teams are up 7-4 against players in the arbitration results in 2020. The Red Sox (Eduardo Rodriguez), Dodgers (Joc Pederson) Twins (Jose Berrios), Braves (Shane Greene), Brewers (Josh Hader) and Rockies (Tony Wolters) have each won arbitration cases that went to trial. The Dodgers also lost a case, though (Pedro Baez). Marlins first baseman Jesus Aguilar, Angels outfielder Brian Goodwin and Astros infielder Aledmys Diaz have won hearings against their clubs as well.

Latest On Mitch Haniger’s Injury

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Mitch Haniger has undergone two surgeries in the past several weeks — core surgery and a microdiscectomy — and while there’s no clear timetable on his return to the diamond, the Mariners’ right fielder offered some additional context on his injury today while speaking to reporters. MLB.com’s Greg Johns tweets that Haniger can’t do any lifting or much activity at all for the first month following the microdiscectomy on his back. Haniger fully expects to play in 2020, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, but he’s limited to walking as his only means of exercise at the moment.

Suffice it to say, that’s not a great outlook and doesn’t bode well for a return in the early portion of the 2020 season. After that initial month has elapsed, Haniger will surely need to build up some strength before returning to full baseball activities, and he will of course need an eventual minor league rehab assignment to get up to game speed.

The level of escalation in Haniger’s injury troubles has been stark. The 29-year-old (28 at the time) sustained a ruptured testicle when he fouled a ball into himself last June. That alone is gruesome enough, but Haniger revealed today that he tore the adductor muscle attachment last summer while rehabbing that injury (Twitter link via Divish). That issue went undiagnosed, leading to the herniated disc in his back and the microdiscectomy that is now limiting him to a walking regimen. (Haniger also provided Divish with a more … colorful? … description of the injury, courtesy of his surgeon.)

That sequence of events — particularly the lack of diagnosis on the adductor issue — will surely be a frustrating revelation for Mariners fans, but Haniger explained today that he felt healthy all offseason long and only incurred a setback upon resuming baseball activities.

With Haniger on the shelf for an indeterminate period of time, the Mariners will have themselves something of a competition in right field. Jake Fraley, Braden Bishop, waiver claim Jose Siri and non-roster invitee Carlos Gonzalez will all be in the mix for playing time alongside projected left fielder Kyle Lewis and center fielder Mallex Smith.

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