Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Trea Turner, Juan Soto
5:02pm: Washington has also settled with outfielder Juan Soto, who will earn $8.5MM, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The 22-year-old phenom still has three more seasons of control left after 2021.
4:33pm: The Nationals and star shortstop Trea Turner have agreed to a $13MM salary for next season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to report. Turner is a client of CAA Sports.
This settlement falls somewhere in the middle of MLBTR’s $9.4MM to $16.6MM arbitration projection for Turner, who has been stellar for the Nationals dating back to 2016. Last year may have been Turner’s best season yet, as the speedster batted .335/.394/.588 with 12 home runs and a dozen stolen bases in 259 plate appearances. The 27-year-old finished fourth among National League position players in fWAR (2.7) and seventh in wRC+ (157).
Turner is likely to stay in Washington for at least another couple of seasons, as he has another year of arb control left after 2021. However, based on the impact Turner has made in their uniform, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Nationals attempt to extend him before he’s eligible for free agency.
Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Bryant, Contreras, Davies
The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman Kris Bryant, catcher Willson Contreras and right-hander Zach Davies, per reports from Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago and Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. Bryant settled for $19.5MM, while Contreras will make $6.65MM and Davies will earn $8.63MM.
While the salaries of Bryant and Contreras for 2021 are now known, it’s unclear whether either will actually rake in that money as members of the Cubs. They have been stalwarts for the club throughout their careers, but with the Cubs in retooling mode this winter, both players have frequented trade rumors. Of course, this doesn’t look like the optimal time to move Bryant, a former NL MVP who put up uncharacteristically bad numbers in 2020. The Boras Corporation client only has a year of control left, though, so the Cubs may try to get what they can for him before the season starts.
The Cubs would have much less difficulty landing solid value for Contreras, who continued his run as a top-tier catcher last season. Not only is he a bargain relative to his production, but Contreras has another year of arbitration eligibility remaining.
The 27-year-old Davies is new to the Cubs, having joined them as part of their return from the Padres last month for righty Yu Darvish. Davies, who enjoyed a career year in 2020, will be eligible for free agency next offseason.
Cubs, Javier Baez Avoid Arbitration
The Cubs and shortstop Javier Baez have avoided arbitration with an $11.65MM agreement for 2021, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com tweets. Baez is a Wasserman client.
MLBTR forecast a $10MM to $11.9MM arbitration salary for Baez earlier this offseason, so this deal checks in near the top of that projection. The Cubs could still try to work out an extension with Baez, though it doesn’t seem that will happen in the immediate future. For now, the 28-year-old remains on track to become a free agent after the upcoming season.
Regardless of whether an extension comes together, both the Cubs and Baez will hope for a better year out of the two-time All-Star, who posted one of his worst seasons in 2020. Baez did appear in 59 of the Cubs’ 60 regular-season games, but he batted a disastrous .203/.238/.360 (57 wRC+), recorded his worst ISO since 2016 (.158), and amassed 75 strikeouts against a mere seven walks over 235 plate appearances. That was hardly the star-level output Baez provided the Cubs from 2018-19, when he combined for a line of .286/.321/.544 (123 wRC+) in 1,206 PA and was among the most valuable infielders in the sport.
Mets, Edwin Diaz Avoid Arbitration
The Mets are avoiding arbitration with relievers Edwin Díaz, Seth Lugo and Miguel Castro. Díaz will make $7MM next season, reports MLB.com Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Lugo comes in at $2.925MM, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Castro, meanwhile, will make $1.6875MM, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. All three pitchers are controllable through the end of the 2022 season.
Díaz comes in above his projected salary range of $5.1MM — $6.5MM. After a rocky first season in Queens, he was brilliant last year. The 26-year-old pitched to a 1.75 ERA with a 45.5% strikeout rate that ranked third among qualified relievers.
Lugo and Castro, meanwhile, fall within their projected ranges. Lugo had some tough bottom line results last year but much more impressive underlying numbers. Castro was adequate for the Mets, who acquired him midseason from the Orioles. Earlier today, New York also came to terms with Robert Gsellman and Dominic Smith.
Nationals, Josh Bell Avoid Arbitration
The Nationals and newly-acquired first baseman Josh Bell avoided arbitration today, coming to an agreement on a one-year, $6.3MM contract, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Bell made $4.8MM in 2020, his first season of arbitration eligibility. The Scott Boras client will be a free agent following the 2022 season.
Our initial projections had Bell set to make between $5.1MM and $7.2MM through arbitration, so the Nationals might have earned themselves a little extra spending money by coming to an early accord. Regardless, Bell expects to have a better year in 2021 after a relatively rough campaign in the truncated 2020 season.
Even after slashing .226/.305/.364 in 223 plate appearances this year, Bell still owns a career line of .261/.349/.466. A strikeout rate of 26.5 percent was particularly high compared to his career average of 19.0 percent. Assuming a regression to his career means, Bell should provide the Nats with efficient production in 2021 given his salary. Besides, with Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber figuring to hit somewhere close and perhaps on either side of Bell in Washington’s lineup, Bell should benefit from the ambient potency.
Soto and Trea Turner represent the Nationals only remaining arbitration cases.
Yankees, Aaron Judge Avoid Arbitration
The Yankees and Aaron Judge have agreed on a $10.175MM contract to avoid arbitration, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). That falls in line with MLBTR’s projected salary range of $9.2MM — $10.7MM. Judge is a client of PSI Sports Management.
This was Judge’s second of three trips through the arbitration process and marks a slight pay bump from last season’s $8.5MM mark (prior to prorating salaries). The power-hitting outfielder will be eligible for free agency after the 2022 season.
Judge was hampered by calf injuries last year but remained plenty productive when he was able to take the field. He popped nine home runs in just 114 plate appearances en route to a .257/.336/.554 slash line (140 wRC+). The 28-year-old figures to reprise his role as one of the sport’s most fearsome sluggers in 2021.
Dodgers, Cody Bellinger Avoid Arbitration
The Dodgers and Cody Bellinger agreed to a one-year, $16.1MM contract ahead of today’s arbitration deadline, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Bellinger made $11.5MM last season, a record amount for a player in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Bellinger is represented by Scott Boras. As a Super-Two player, Bellinger has two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining before his potential free agency following the 2023 season.
Bellinger’s record salary last season came on the heels of a National League MVP season in which he produced a .305/.406/.629 slash line and 7.1 bWAR. While his Dodgers got over the hump to win the World Series this season, Bellinger posted a mere mortal .239/.333/.455 line at the plate during the regular season. Despite seeing a year-over-year drop from 162 wRC+ to 114 wRC+ this season, the Dodgers saw fit to reward Bellinger with a sizable raise regardless. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Bellinger would have received an arbitration award somewhere between $11.5MM and $15.9MM. The model based on 2020’s numbers alone was definitely too conservative, as he was going to get a raise of some sort, but it’s still interesting to see the Dodgers agree to a number beyond even our highest projection.
While Bellinger’s offensive numbers may have been down, he remained as central as ever to the Dodgers’ efforts. The 25-year-old led all of baseball with eight outs above average while manning centerfield for the Dodgers, which the Dodgers certainly could include in their valuation of Bellinger, even if arbitration panels don’t typically overly weigh defensive metrics such as OAA.
Dodgers To Sign Enny Romero To Minor League Deal
The Dodgers will sign southpaw Enny Romero to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, per Hector Gómez of Z101 Sports (via Twitter).
Romero hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2018, though he appeared in 137 games and logged 146 innings from 2013 to 2018. He will be 30-years-old at the start of the 2021 season, with an outside shot at seeing time with the World Champions. With pitcher workloads down across the sport in 2020, this season may require teams to lean on unprecedented depth, giving a comeback arm like Romero a greater chance than usual to carve out a role.
Signed by the Rays out of the Dominican Republic, Romero first appeared in the Majors with Tampa in 2013. With the Rays, Nationals, Pirates, and Royals, Romero owns a 5.12 ERA/4.30 FIP with a 23.4 percent strikeout rate, 11.1 percent walk rate, and 40.5 groundball rate for his career. In his heyday, Romero flashed a plus heater with good spin that could reach triple-digits and consistently miss bats, though his velocity dropped to an average of 95 mph the last time he took the hill in 2018.
Season Notes: Pandemic, Rules, Rays, Attendance
Teams have their hands full today with the opening of the international signing period, as well as the now-passed deadline for arbitration agreements. While we sift through those financials, here’s the latest on how the pandemic continues to affect the sport…
- MLB hopes to bring back seven-inning doubleheaders and the runner-on-second-base extra-inning rule, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The league is advocating for a continuation of these rules specifically for fear of the coronavirus continuing to affect the schedule. The league also seems to be in favor of keeping the universal DH and expanded playoffs, though those issues are still being discussed. No rule changes are made official, of course, until the league comes to an agreement with the MLBPA. The debate around expanded playoffs seems particularly challenging right now, as a greater playoff field, in some minds, actually de-incentivizes teams from spending in free agency since they have a greater margin for error. Reduced spending on free agents is a hot button issue right now, and it’s going to be the lens through which the players view many of the topics under discussion for 2021. Nightengale notes that there’s at least a chance that MLB ends up with the same rules in 2021 as in 2020, with the exception of roster sizes dropping back down from 29 to 26.
- The Rays are planning to allow roughly 7,000 fans per game in 2021, socially distanced and wearing masks, of course, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Of course, much can change between now and April, but the hope is that greater vaccine rollouts can mitigate the number of breakouts around the country. The Rays plan to re-open part of their upper deck seating to help keep fans appropriately distanced. The Rays are prepping best they can to allow fans in for games, but it will still come down to getting approval from MLB and government authorities. The Rays hope to have more information about ticketing ready before the end of February.
Pirates To Sign Wilmer Difo
The Pirates are in agreement on a deal with infielder Wilmer Difo, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The contract is pending a physical. It is a minor league deal, worth $1MM with incentives should Difo make the Major League roster, adds Murray.
Difo had spent the past decade-plus in the Nationals’ system, with Washington originally adding him as an international amateur. He has picked up big league playing time in each of the past six years, with the bulk of that work coming from 2017-18. All told, Difo has a .247/.309/.348 career slash line across 1,060 MLB plate appearances. He’s made contact at an above-average rate and drawn a decent number of walks, but Difo has well below-average exit velocities and has never been much of a power threat.
The bigger appeal is what Difo brings to the table defensively. The 28-year-old has plenty of middle infield experience, as well as some time at third base and a few innings in the outfield. Advanced metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved have generally pegged Difo as a slightly above-average defender up the middle. Difo has three-plus years of MLB service time, so he’d be controllable through 2023 via arbitration if he emerges as a long-term piece in Pittsburgh.