Quick Hits: Cubs, Hoerner, Opening Day, Home Run Leaders By State
Nico Hoerner earned a Gold Glove nomination after notching five Defensive Runs Saved in just over 200 innings at the keystone in 2020, but his versatility will make him more than a bit player for the Cubs moving forward. Thanks to his plus glovework, the 23-year-old was worth 0.7 bWAR in 2020 despite slashing .222/.312/.259. His defensive prowess will keep his name on the lineup card while his bat works to catch up, writes Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times. Hoerner played five positions including centerfield – the Cubs’ most glaring long-and-short-term hole. Ian Happ was the bulk starter in center in 2020, but he could move to left now that Kyle Schwarber was non-tendered. The Cubs are likely to add at least another name to their outfield mix, but don’t be surprised to see Hoerner continue to get looks there in the spring while competing with David Bote for regular second base reps.
As we look forward to the new year, let’s see what else is happening around the sport…
- With two COVID-19 vaccines now on the market, owners are considering a push to delay the season opener until May. In their minds, a significant enough number in vaccinations could justify the delay, writes Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Players have thus far resisted any attempts to push back the start of the season, however. The MLBPA wants a 162-game season rather than face another year of prorated pay. With coronavirus cases still on the rise, however, it’s prudent for MLB to take whatever precautions necessary to limit the risk of breakouts in 2021.
- MLB.com’s Director of Research and Development Daren Willman put together a fun chart to peruse this holiday season (via Twitter). Williams posted the current home run leaders by birth state, and there are definitely some places for a young go-getter to take their local crown. Maine, Alaska, and New Hampshire each have career leaders with less than 100 home runs, while Duke Sims landed exactly at the century mark to leader all Utahans. Paul Goldschmidt (Delaware), Bryce Harper (Nevada), Kurt Suzuki (Hawaii), Mike Trout (New Jersey), and Ryan Zimmerman (North Carolina) could add to their leads in 2021, while the recently-retired Alex Gordon ended his career as Nebraska’s all-time home run king. Executive Director of the MLBPA Tony Clark also makes the list as Kansas’ all-time leader.
Rangers To Sign Kohei Arihara
TODAY: MLB Insider Jon Heyman provided some clarification as to the financial specifics today (via Twitter). As presumed yesterday, the posting fee will amount to $1.24MM, while the Rangers will pay out $6.2MM over the course of the two-year contract. Arihara will make $2.6MM in 2021 and $3.6MM in 2022, adds MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter).
Dec. 25: The Rangers are in agreement with right-hander Kohei Arihara, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). It’s a two-year contract in the $6-7MM range, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter).
Arihara, 28, has spent the past six seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Nippon Professional Baseball. In 836 career innings at Japan’s highest level, Arihara compiled a 3.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He has been especially productive over the past two years. Arihara posted a minuscule 2.46 ERA with a career-best 8.8 K/9 in 2019. This past season, he managed a 3.46 mark with 7.2 K/9 across 132.2 innings.
Writing for Baseball America on the heels of Arihara’s peak season in 2019, Jason Coskrey noted that the right-hander works in the low-90’s and primarily leans upon his fastball, changeup and slider. Arihara has up to seven distinct pitches in his arsenal, though, and Coskrey notes he’s adept at using his secondaries to keep opposing hitters off balance. He also has a long history of throwing strikes, not having issued more than 2.2 walks per nine innings pitched in any of his last five NPB seasons.
Arihara’s not known for especially overpowering raw stuff, and that’s been borne out in his relatively low strikeout rates. Shun Yamaguchi, who signed a similar contract with the Blue Jays last offseason, consistently posted heftier strikeout totals over his time in Japan than did Arihara. So too has Tomoyuki Sugano, the higher-profile NPB starter available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter. That could suggest Arihara’s more suited for the back of the rotation, although he figures to have a decent opportunity for innings in Texas.
Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles will presumably try to bounce back from dismal 2020 seasons. Dane Dunning will certainly get a rotation job after coming over from the White Sox in the Lance Lynn trade. There’s a lot of uncertainty beyond (and even among) that trio, though. Kolby Allard was knocked around last season and hasn’t yet established himself as a big league caliber starter. Kyle Cody, who never worked more than five innings, was the only other player still on the roster to start multiple games for Texas last season.
In addition to Arihara’s salary, the Rangers will owe the Fighters a release fee under the terms of the MLB-NPB posting system. The Fighters will receive a sum equal to 20 percent of the contract value. Depending upon the contract’s specific terms, that would put the posting fee in the $1.2MM – 1.4MM range. Texas’ total outlay is around $7.5MM, hears Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).
The Red Sox and Padres were reportedly the other finalists in the bidding for Arihara, whose posting window was set to expire tomorrow. San Diego and Boston will now have to turn elsewhere in their hunt for additional rotation depth.
Rangers Designate Art Warren For Assignment
The Texas Rangers announced the signing of Kohei Arihara today, inking the right-hander to a two-year, $6.2MM contract after paying a $1.24MM posting fee to Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. In a corresponding move, the Rangers have designated right-hander Art Warren for assignment, notes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).
Warren, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Mariners just after the 2020 season. He didn’t appear for the Mariners this season after making six scoreless appearances in 2019. Prior to making his Major League debut that season, Warren posted a sterling 1.71 ERA across 29 appearances totaling 31 2/3 innings in Double-A. He recorded 15 saves while finishing 22 games and showing swing-and-miss potential with 11.7 K/9.
While Warren will be 28 years old for the 2021 season, a 95 mph fastball and wipe-out slider provide Warren with enough firepower to make a front office curious. The Ohio native has done enough since being drafted in the 23rd round out of Ashland University to get a look somewhere next season. If he’s not claimed, the Rangers would likely gladly keep him in the organization.
Examining The Orioles Rotation
For the first time in a few years, the Baltimore Orioles plan to begin the 2021 season with a rotation that fans can dream on. They’re not quite ready to challenge the Yankees or the Rays for the division, but neither will their roster be flooded with journeymen and July trade candidates – at least not entirely.
Make no mistake, the Orioles will count as a surprise if they don’t finish in fifth place in the East, but songs of progress are sung in many different keys. The Orioles are entering Year Three under GM Mike Elias, which under most circumstances should call for the beginnings of the organization’s on-field transformation. Last year’s 25-35 record was a step in the right direction after back-to-back 100-loss seasons, but that still put them on a roughly 95-loss pace over a full campaign.
Progress for the Orioles this season begins in the rotation where youngsters Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin plan to slot behind John Means and Alex Cobb, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Means and Cobb hardly make for a bone-chilling front of the rotation, but there ought not to be much question about their ability to stick in the rotation for a full season.
Means has been worth roughly 2.2 bWAR per 150 innings over his first two seasons, though there’s a stark contrast between his first half of 2019 and the time since. The 33-year-old Cobb, meanwhile, returned to form in 2020 with a 4.30 ERA/4.87 FIP in 52 1/3 innings over 10 starts. He’s a back-end starter at this point and could serve as eventual trade bait, but at least for the first half of the season, he ought to help protect the bullpen from overuse.
Where Means and Cobb secure the floor, Akin and Kremer raise the ceiling. The right-handed Kremer made four starts in 2020 with a 4.82 ERA/2.76 FIP. He struggled a bit with command (5.8 BB/9), but a high-spin fastball deployed up and a cutter with 4.4 inches of horizontal movement helped him secure 10.6 K/9 in his first taste of big league action. Kremer came to the Orioles as part of the Manny Machado package, but his slider looked like a difference-making pitch at the time, and his arsenal has shifted in the years since.
What that means isn’t yet clear. There’s been some question about whether Kremer has stuff enough to stick in the rotation long-term, but the Orioles are going to give the soon-to-be 25-year-old a chance. Internally, he might be their best chance for a first-division rotation type before prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall start arriving in a couple years.
The southpaw Akin boasts a similar profile, but from the other side. Both pitchers surrendered hard contact in 2020, but they still showed enough to manage a spot in the rotation. If either one can build on their 2020 performance to take firm hold of rotation innings, the Orioles could continue to grow their win totals in 2021. On the other hand, none of the front four seem particularly likely to develop into a frontline arm. They still seek high-impact talent in that department. The Orioles rotations ranked 19th in fWAR, 23rd in ERA and 24th in FIP, so they’ll need to improve to make much hay in the American League.
On the offensive end, Adley Rutschman has the chance to be the kind of impact player an organization can rally around. The former first overall draft choice will begin 2021 in Double-A, noted Kubatko. As Rutchschman nears, Elias should feel some pressure to field a competitive team around him. Even if Akin and Kremer aren’t exactly Johnson and Schilling, they can begin to lay the groundwork for a professional roster.
Reactions To The Josh Bell Trade
The Pirates and Nationals lined up on a deal yesterday that sent first baseman Josh Bell to Washington for a pair of right-handed pitching prospects, Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean. Some reporting in the aftermath of the deal:
- The Pirates have made no secret about their desire to move players off the big league roster for future value this offseason. Trading Bell certainly doesn’t figure to be Pittsburgh’s final move of this ilk, as general manager Ben Cherington acknowledged. “Likely won’t be the last one. There will probably be more,” Cherington told reporters (including Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). “I’m not saying that to predict anything, that’s the realization, that’s where we are.” Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier are the Pirates’ most prominent potential trade candidates, but any of Richard Rodríguez, Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, Chris Stratton and Jacob Stallings could plausibly hold appeal to other teams.
- Crowe will compete for a spot in the Pittsburgh rotation in 2021, Cherington confirmed (via Gorman). That’s hardly a surprise; the 26-year-old spent most of 2018-19 in the high minors and made his MLB debut this past season. Crowe was shelled in his three big league starts, but that’s nowhere near enough of a sample to rule him out as a near-term rotation option. Musgrove, Mitch Keller, Jameson Taillon, Kuhl, Brault and J.T. Brubaker all might be ahead of Crowe on the depth chart at the moment. It seems likely one or more of those players will themselves wind up traded before Opening Day.
- Of the two prospects acquired by the Pirates, Crowe is the more familiar name thanks to his big league experience. Yean, though, was the more appealing get for the Pittsburgh front office, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. That sentiment was shared by the Nationals, it seems. Washington “(doesn’t) believe they gave up a lot to fill a glaring hole” on the roster, writes Dougherty, largely because they were “lukewarm” about Crowe’s future. On the other hand, ESPN’s Buster Olney points out (via Twitter) that Bell’s profile (slugger at the bottom of the defensive spectrum) is the kind that teams have devalued in recent years. For what it’s worth, the MLBTR readership seemed to favor the Nationals’ end of the trade.
Fernando Romero Signs With NPB’s Yokohama BayStars
DECEMBER 25: The BayStars have announced their agreement with Romero (h/t to the Japan Times). It’s a one-year deal with a club option for 2022. Romero will reportedly make $724,000 next season.
DECEMBER 18, 7:03pm: Romero will sign with the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets. The Twins will receive roughly $300K in return.
DECEMBER 18, 4:15pm: The Twins activated right-hander Fernando Romero from the restricted list and then released him, Chris Miller of the Star Tribune reports. Romero, who is from the Dominican Republic, was unable to secure a visa to the United States last season.
This is certainly not the way the Twins expected their relationship with Romero to end, as he was among their top prospects for multiple seasons. Baseball America ranked Romero as the Twins’ sixth-best farmhand in 2018 and wrote that he could turn into a second or third starter “if he can round out his third pitch.”
The 25-year-old Romero did collect 11 starts with the Twins from 2018-19, during which he averaged about 96 mph on his fastball, but the results weren’t great. He combined for 69 2/3 innings during those seasons and recorded a 5.17 ERA/4.49 FIP with 8.14 K/9, 3.88 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent groundball rate. Romero has been better in Triple-A ball, where he owns a 3.88 ERA and has registered 8.0 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 in 148 1/3 innings. It’s likely some other team will take a chance on him now that he’s available to sign.
Adeiny Hechavarria Signs With NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines
Infielder Adeiny Hechavarría has agreed to a deal with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball, the team announced yesterday (h/t to the Japan Times). It’s a one-year deal worth a reported $970,000.
Hechavarría, 31, has appeared in the big leagues in each of the last nine years. Signed out of Cuba by the Blue Jays, he made his MLB debut with Toronto in 2012. That November, Hechavarría was part of the twelve-player blockbuster that sent José Reyes and Mark Buehrle to the Jays. He spent the next four seasons as the Marlins’ regular shortstop. He never hit for power or drew many walks, but Hechavarría made a lot of contact and rated as a plus defender at the position. As he got into his late-20’s, he became something of a journeyman depth infielder. Over the past four years, Hechavarría has suited up for the Marlins, Rays, Pirates, Yankees, Mets and Braves. He has slashed .251/.289/.387 with 23 home runs over 953 plate appearances in that time.
Last season, Hechavarría only picked up 63 plate appearances with Atlanta. He was left off the playoff roster during their run to the NLCS and became a free agent after the season.
International Signings: Alcantara, Overton
A pair of former big leaguers have signed with teams in Asia over the past few days.
- Right-hander Raúl Alcántara is joining the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball, per a team announcement. The 28-year-old will be making his first trip to Japan’s highest level; he has spent the past two seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization. After posting solid but unspectacular numbers with the KT Wiz in 2019, Alcántara found a new gear this past season. Over 198.2 innings with the Doosan Bears in 2020, he worked to a 2.54 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9. That earned him the Choi Dong-Won Award as the KBO’s top pitcher and sufficiently impressed the Tigers to bring him aboard. Alcántara’s big league experience consists of 46.1 innings of 7.19 ERA/7.45 FIP ball with the 2016-17 Athletics.
- One of Alcántara’s former teammates in Oakland, Dillon Overton, also secured a job overseas. He signed with the Rakuten Monkeys of Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League, the club announced. A former A’s second-rounder, Overton combined for a 9.13 ERA/7.74 FIP across 47.1 MLB innings with Oakland and Seattle from 2016-17. The 29-year-old southpaw spent the 2018-19 seasons in the high minors with the Padres but didn’t make it back to the highest level. This will be his first season in a foreign pro league.
CPBL’s Fubon Guardians Sign Hector Noesi
Right-hander Hector Noesi has signed with the Fubon Guardians of the Chinese Professional Baseball League, the team announced. (Hat tip to the CPBL Stats page.) Apple Daily was the first to break news of the agreement, and media outlet EToday reported that Noesi will earn roughly $500K for the 2021 season.
Noesi is a veteran of six MLB seasons, tossing 395 1/3 innings with four different teams (mostly the White Sox and Mariners) from 2011-15 before resurfacing with the Marlins in 2019. Noesi posted an 8.46 ERA over 27 2/3 innings with Miami, bringing his career Major League resume to a 5.51 ERA, 1.89 K/BB rate, and 6.4 K/9 over 423 total frames. Noesi signed a minor league deal with the Pirates last winter but chose to opt out of the 2020 season.
In between being let go by the White Sox and returning to the Marlins, Noesi spent three seasons in the KBO League, so he already has some significant experience pitching outside of North American baseball. Noesi had 3.79 ERA, 3.22 K/BB rate, and 6.6 K/9 over 582 1/3 innings (all as a starting pitching) for the Kia Tigers, so this could provide some idea of what Noesi can bring to the Guardians heading into his age-34 season.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read of the transcript of the super-sized Christmas Day edition of the baseball live chat