East Notes: Cobb, Mets, Mayza, Nationals
As the recent trade of Jose Iglesias to the Angels indicates, the Orioles are open to moving any veteran on their roster, particularly those making a significant salary. Alex Cobb (owed $15MM in 2021) certainly qualifies as a trade candidate, though GM Mike Elias suggested to MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski and other reporters that the Orioles could keep the 33-year-old righty at least into the start of the season. “I have no doubt if he pitches like Alex Cobb, he’s going to draw interest and we’re going to ultimately see where we’re at and see what the situation is….I think it would be beneficial for us to go into the season with Alex if that’s the way that it shakes out and having that front end spot in the rotation fortified with his ability and veteran presence,” Elias said.
Cobb signed a four-year, $57MM deal just prior to the start of the 2018 season, and after struggling in 2018 and missing almost all of 2019 due to injury, Cobb had solid bottom-line numbers over 10 starts this past season. The right-hander posted a 4.30 ERA, 2.11 K/BB rate, 54.5% grounder rate, and 6.5 K/9 over 52 1/3 innings, though Statcast was thoroughly unimpressed by his performance. Those metrics and Cobb’s hefty salary certainly limit his trade value at the moment, so it makes sense that the O’s would see if he can perform better in the early stages of the 2021 campaign in order to possibly leverage him as a trade chip at the deadline. If Cobb can’t be moved but is able to duplicate his 2020 results, Baltimore would at least benefit (as Elias noted) from a dependable arm on the mound.
Here are some other items from both the AL and NL East…
- The Mets have been linked to just about every big name free agent this winter, though The New York Post’s Joel Sherman wonders if the team might take a more measured approach to its winter shopping. Rather than splurge on any of the “big four” free agents (Trevor Bauer, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, and DJ LeMahieu), Sherman opines that New York could direct its resources towards “dominating the second tier” of the market. Such roster upgrades would still make the team better “while potentially saving money and prospects for the July trade market — and beyond.” Signing James McCann rather than Realmuto could be a hint that the team is deploying such a tactic, though the other school of thought suggests that McCann was signed so the Mets could save some money for a bigger push to land Bauer or Springer.
- After undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2019, Blue Jays left-hander Tim Mayza is looking forward to returning to action in Spring Training, The Toronto Star’s Laura Armstrong writes. Mayza’s rehab was more complicated the normal TJ recovery process, as Mayza had to also recover from a torn flexor tendon (suffered at the same time as his UCL tear) and spend much of his time working out at home rather than at team facilities due to the COVID-19 lockdown. If that wasn’t enough, Mayza tested positive for the coronavirus this fall, though he was thankfully asymptomatic during his two weeks of quarantine. “Although it’s been different, my rehab was not stalled at all through all this,” Mayza said. “I’ve continued to stay on track and the end goal of being 100 per cent by spring training is very much a realistic goal.” Mayza has a 4.67 ERA, 2.71 K/BB rate, 48.6% grounder rate, and 10.6 K/9 over 104 innings with Toronto from 2017-19, and he has held left-handed batters to a .217/.288/.349 slash line over 208 plate appearances. With a lack of southpaw relief options on the Jays’ 40-man roster, there is certainly opportunity for Mayza to win a job if he looks good in camp.
- The Mets’ signing of McCann took the catching market’s second-best option off the board, further limiting the free agent choices for teams in need of help behind the plate. The Nationals are one of those clubs, and as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes, “they’re either going to have to spend well north of $100MM on Realmuto or hope one of the remaining lesser options is good enough” if the Nats turn to free agency for catching help. Realmuto might be out of the picture given the indications that the Nationals aren’t planning on any big spending this offseason, though since Washington still has Yan Gomes, the team might decide that a platoon partner is all that is required at catcher.
KBO’s KT Wiz Re-Sign William Cuevas
10:01PM: The Wiz have announced the deal, with Cuevas’ 2021 salary breaking down as $750K in guaranteed money and $250K in incentives. The 2022 option is also a mutual/vesting option.
5:35PM: Right-hander William Cuevas is re-signing with the KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN (Twitter link). His 2021 base salary will check in at $1MM, with additional money available via incentives. The pact also contains a 2022 player option worth $1.7MM, Rojas adds.
Cuevas has spent the past two seasons as an innings eater for the Wiz. He’s tossed 342 frames of 3.84 ERA ball over 57 starts. Along the way, the 30-year-old has amassed 6.45 K/9 against 2.87 BB/9. Cuevas’ run prevention numbers were better in 2019 than they were in 2020, although his strikeout and walk rates were fairly consistent year over year.
Prior to going to South Korea, Cuevas pitched in parts of three MLB seasons with the Red Sox and Tigers. He only managed an 8.06 ERA/5.71 FIP across 22 1/3 innings in that time. He was generally a reliable depth option in the high minors, though, posting Triple-A numbers similar to his KBO performance.
NL West Notes: Bauer, Giants, D’Backs, Arenado
“The Giants have discussed” signing Trevor Bauer, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, though this isn’t necessarily indicative of a full-fledged pursuit since “they discuss the top free agents every year.” There are many reasons Bauer would make sense for the Giants, as Shea illustrates in his pros and cons piece, including the point that Bauer might represent a better upgrade than any of the pitching options available in the 2021-22 free agent market.
However, Shea ultimately opines that Bauer wouldn’t be an ideal fit “for a team that’s not close to championship caliber and is waiting for its top prospects to emerge over the next couple of years.” The Giants certainly face an uphill battle in going against the Dodgers and the Padres in their division alone, though since San Francisco has to some extent overachieved over the last two seasons even while overhauling the roster, I would argue that the Giants could position themselves more firmly into the wild card hunt with some pitching upgrades, and Bauer would certainly qualify in that regard. For what it’s worth, Bauer’s most recent YouTube video listed Giants fans fourth on his list of the fanbases that have done the best job of trying to sell him on joining their team.
More from the NL West…
- The bulk of the Diamondbacks‘ talks with other teams has focused on pitching, with rival clubs showing interest in Arizona’s starters. The D’Backs have something of a surplus of rotation options on paper, with a projected starting five of Madison Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Caleb Smith, Merrill Kelly ahead of other potential depth arms like Taylor Clarke, Alex Young or prospect Corbin Martin. Speaking to MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and other reporters, D’Backs general manager Mike Hazen said “I think we have to be in a position to listen to what people have to say” in terms of trade offers, though “I think we’re somewhat reluctant to talk about pitching, just because of our feeling on the amount of pitching we’re going to need.” Kelly is the most obvious question mark since he underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in September, though the right-hander was very pleased with his recovery process as of November. Beyond Kelly, Bumgarner and Weaver each struggled last season, and while the Diamondbacks are hopeful both can bounce back, the club would surely like to have more depth on hand just in case.
- What would Nolan Arenado earn if he was a free agent this winter? ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) floated the question to some evaluators in the wake of Arenado’s disappointing 2020 season, and the results were still pretty strong — a deal worth somewhere between $100MM-$125MM. This offers some idea that Arenado’s 2020 numbers “will likely be treated as an outlier by any interested teams” in trade talks, but also of how much of Arenado’s actual contract (six years and $199MM remaining, with an opt-out after the 2021 season) the Rockies could be asked to cover to accommodate a deal. It just adds another layer of difficulty to any possibility that Arenado could be traded this offseason, since it seems unlikely that the Rox would be okay with eating that much money to move a player they surely consider a prize trade asset.
Quick Hits: Suzuki, Angels, Diamondbacks, Cubs
The Angels are interested in free agent catcher Kurt Suzuki, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Los Angeles was in on James McCann before he agreed to terms with the Mets, and it seems the front office is still looking to add to the position. The 37-year-old Suzuki has been an average or better hitter for four consecutive seasons, putting up a cumulative .272/.337/.475 line since the start of 2017. That has helped to offset his subpar pitch framing and arm behind the plate. Suzuki spent the 2017-18 seasons with the Braves; new Angels GM Perry Minasian was in the Atlanta front office for the second of those years. Currently, Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom stand as the only backstops on the Angels’ 40-man roster.
Some more from around the sport:
- Also from Rosenthal, the Diamondbacks are prioritizing bullpen help and are in the market for a right-handed hitting outfielder. That lines up rather directly with the types of players Arizona sold off at last summer’s trade deadline. Starling Marté, Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin were all sent elsewhere after the D-Backs fell out of the playoff picture. (Bradley and Chafin are now free agents, so nothing prohibits the Arizona front office from pursuing reunions with either player if they’re so inclined). After doling out multi-year deals for Madison Bumgarner, Nick Ahmed and David Peralta last offseason, Arizona doesn’t figure to play at the top of the market this winter, Rosenthal feels. That probably rules out a Liam Hendriks pursuit, but there are plenty of lower-cost relievers available on the open market.
- Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are looking to add starting pitching this offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters (including Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic). There are some question marks behind Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks in the rotation. Alec Mills, Adbert Alzolay and Colin Rea are among a handful of in-house options who could help fill out the back end, but there’s obvious room for an addition or two. Hoyer also pointed out the uncertainty involved with relying on the same five-man rotation throughout 2021 after pitchers’ workloads were curtailed during this past shortened season. Many teams have to rely on eight to ten starters to weather underperformance and/or injuries in a normal season. A 162-game season next year would present its own unique set of workload challenges on top of that typical attrition.
Mets Hire Jared Porter As General Manager
DECEMBER 13: The Mets have officially announced Porter’s hiring as general manager. He signed a four-year contract.
DECEMBER 12: The Mets have focused their search for a new general manager on Arizona Diamondbacks Assistant GM Jared Porter, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Porter has been talked about in conjunction with a number of front office openings, including the recent Angels’ opening, for which he was a finalist. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that the Mets are now working to finalize a four-year agreement with Porter (Twitter links). The two sides are merely working out some final details, adds Heyman.
Porter’s background is in professional scouting, though he isn’t limited to any one area in his current role with the Diamondbacks. Prior to joining the Diamondbacks, he was the Director of Professional Scouting for the Cubs for two seasons, a title he held with the Red Sox from 2012 to 2015. Currently, he’s a Senior VP & Assistant GM to Mike Hazen in Arizona, a position he’s held for since just after winning the World Series with the Cubs. Hazen hired Porter in November of 2016.
Porter has contributed to four World Series winners, including a pair of “cursebreakers” in Boston and Chicago. Sherman offers this assessment of Porter: “Reputation as personable, hardworking, scout at heart who knows analytics, not afraid to make decisions. Theo Epstein disciple.” Porter will work closely now with Sandy Alderson to head up the Mets baseball operations department.
Back in 2017, Porter was kind enough to grant an interview to MLBTR, which can be found in two parts: here and here.
Corey Kluber Expected To Throw For Interested Teams
1:02 pm: Kluber’s first workout is expected to take place in January, hears Rob Bradford of WEEI.
9:14 am: Free agent right-hander Corey Kluber is preparing to throw bullpen sessions for interested teams later this month, reports Buster Olney of ESPN. The 34-year-old began a throwing program in early November on the heels of a second consecutive season marred by injury.
Kluber was limited to just one inning with the Rangers in 2020 after suffering a Grade 2 teres major strain in his throwing shoulder during his first outing. That came after he logged just 35.2 innings in 2019 due to a comebacker that fractured his forearm, ending his season in May. Thanks to Kluber’s recent run of poor health, Texas made the decision to decline his $18MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout.
So far this offseason, Kluber has drawn some attention from the Red Sox and Twins. It’s fair to presume other clubs will be interested in checking in on his status. Kluber was dominant in 2018, his last full season of work. Given his age, it’d be hard to bank on him again posting Cy Young-caliber production coming off two largely lost years. Nevertheless, plenty of teams could have interest in taking a shot on Kluber as an upside play if he demonstrates much or all of his prior form in the upcoming showcases.
Mets To Hire Dave Jauss As Bench Coach
The Mets are set to hire Dave Jauss as bench coach, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll take over for Hensley Meulens, who was let go after just one season in the position.
Jauss, 63, has worked for MLB teams in various capacities since the late 1980’s. He has previously worked as a bench coach for four different franchises, the Mets among them. Jauss was Grady Little’s right-hand man with the Dodgers from 2006-07, then held the same position with the Orioles over the next two seasons. He became the Mets’ bench coach in 2010, working under then-manager Jerry Manuel. Jauss moved into the Mets’ front office in 2011 before returning to the field as a member of the Pirates’ coaching staff from 2012-19. That included another stint as bench coach, as Jauss worked in that role with Clint Hurdle for one season. He spent this past year as a scout in the Yankees’ organization after leaving the Pirates when Hurdle was let go, notes Tim Healey of Newsday.
Jauss’ previous stint in Queens saw him overlap with president of baseball operations Sandy Alderson and manager Luis Rojas. He’ll clearly bring plenty of experience back to the dugout as top lieutenant for the Mets’ second-year skipper.
NPB’s Hanshin Tigers To Re-Sign Robert Suarez
The Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball are re-signing right-hander Robert Suárez, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Suárez will return to the Nishinomiya-based club in 2021 and has a player option for 2022. Altogether, the deal comes with a guarantee in the $6.75MM range, per Morosi.
A 29-year-old reliever, Suárez has spent the past four seasons at Japan’s highest level. He has a cumulative 3.53 ERA across 142.2 relief innings for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and the Tigers. This past season, his first as a Tiger, Suárez logged a 2.24 mark over 52.1 innings, with a solid combination of 8.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
Suárez has never played affiliated ball in the United States, but he’d drawn some attention from MLB teams this winter on the heels of that strong season, Morosi notes. Instead, he’ll remain with the Tigers, where he figures to again serve as the primary closer for the Central League team.
Vince Velasquez Drawing Trade Interest
Before tendering right-hander Vince Velasquez a contract for the 2021 season, the Phillies received inquires into his availability, according to the Athletic’s Matt Gelb.
There’s no denying that Velasquez has a great arm. Making that arm work for him on the pitching mound has been an up-and-down endeavor for the 28-year-old, however. The six-year veteran is set to make somewhere between $3.8MM and $4.8MM in his final season before free agency – a palatable amount for a rotation arm should the Phillies ultimately decide to move him, especially without the hindrance of a long-term financial commitment.
Whether or not Velazquez qualifies as a rotation arm is a question that the Phillies themselves have waffled on the past couple of seasons. Out of 42 total appearances the last two years, 30 have been starts – but that’s compared to 69 out of 70 from 2016 to 2018.
Inconsistency has, in fact, been the constant for Velazquez. He mixes wipe-out stuff (10.5 K/9 over the last two seasons) with a too-high walk rate (9.1 BB%) and year-to-year arsenal uncertainty. His 93-94 mph fastball more-or-less sets the tone, but deciding on a second-best offering has been somewhat of a rollercoaster.
His slider, for example, had largely been an effective, if judicious selection for him his first few years in the rotation, but as it gained traction volume-wise, hitters took it to the tune of a .407 wOBA in 2019. His changeup, meanwhile, had fallen almost out of his arsenal entirely in 2018 and 2019 before finding its way back into the mix last season, when he threw it 14.3% of the time and limited hitters to a 26.7 HardHit%. He throws a sinker, sparingly, but it’s been thumped – except in 2016 and 2020 when it registered a .298 wOBA and 243 wOBA, respectively.
All in all, Velasquez has been good for roughly 1.3 bWAR per 150 innings over his Phillies tenure – though 146 2/3 innings in 2018 mark a career high. Still, he owns a 4.33 FIP and 4.21 xFIP, as well as an exactly-league-average 100 FIP- for his career. Even that, however, doesn’t really tell the tale, as he’s alternated above-average seasons and below-average seasons by that mark since joining Philadelphia’s rotation: 94, 125, 90, 115, and 91 from 2016 to 2020.
That there’s interest in Velasquez is hardly surprising. But pinning his value to the wall is difficult. To summarize: on average, he’s an average ML arm that manifests as either 9-10% better or 15-25% worse than average.
As of right now, he figures to start the 2021 season right back in the Philly rotation behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Eflin, right alongside rookie Spencer Howard. Rumor is there’s a new decision-maker in town, however, as well as a new pitching coach, so this is their puzzle to solve.
MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia
After a bit of uncertainty, the Phillies hired the guy they wanted as the first-ever president of baseball operations in team history – and he just so happens to be the only GM ever to take three different teams to the World Series. Dave Dombrowski now aims to take a two-point lead on that score in Philadelphia. To his own admission, however, “no one thinks the Phillies are one player away.” So there’s work to do. What that means exactly makes for the nebulous, but substantive difference between Dombrowski and the what-might-have-been “other” guy.
The immediate assumption has been that Dombrowski’s appointment portends aggressive spending – either of dollars in free agency or of prospects via trades. Dombrowski has a reputation as a wheeler-and-dealer, and after three consecutive seasons of floating around .500, there’s some urgency to improve, directed largely by managing partner John Middleton. It doesn’t take a genius to put two and two together.
And yet, Dombrowski himself took a more measured stance in his first press conference with reporters yesterday. So, too, did Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail. As I wrote yesterday, a focus on system building rather than immediate contention during his introduction speaks volumes about the level of self-awareness inside Philadelphia’s leadership group. While they’re not going to disappear immediately into the mud, don’t wait for J.T. Realmuto to come waltzing in the door behind Dombrowski either.
As for the new headmaster, he’s taking some time to get to know his new operation. It’s going to be a lot of sleepless nights in the coming weeks as he makes his first moves in office, such as deciding whether or not to hire a general manager. Though there’s a lot of work to do, Middleton, Dombrowski, and the Phillies seem a harmonious fit. You can add manager Joe Girardi to that group as well, whose old-school blood hasn’t kept him from recognizing important evolutions in the game – much like Dombrowski. No, they’re not the poster-children for the sabremetric, biomechanic, new-school evangelists, but they’re hepper to what’s wise in this game than it may seem.
It’s time for you to weigh in. Dombrowski is said to have signed a four-year deal, so let’s keep our prognostication to that time frame. Say that at the end of these four years, coronavirus is a thing of the past, the MLB Draft League has ballooned interest in the sport, expansion is an inevitability, and Dombrowski wants to return to Nashville to run the Music City Stars. How are we going to feel about the Dombrowski era in Philly? Just for fun, let’s frame out answers in the form of Phillies of the past. Feel free to add your own in the comments. (Poll links for app users.)
How Will We View The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia Four Years From Now?
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A Pat Burrell era: a lot of fanfare raised expectations, but ultimately this falls into the 'can't complain' category. 27% (2,519)
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A Danny Tartabull era: it might have been better for all parties if he'd retired right BEFORE coming to Philly. 20% (1,832)
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A John Kruk era: solid, quirky, edgy, and a good run, even without a ring. 19% (1,701)
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A Curt Schilling era: it feels great at the time, but in retrospect it will become harder to parse. 13% (1,180)
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A Mitch Williams era: short, tumultuous, successful, but a "Wild Thing" era ultimately ends in heartbreak. 12% (1,094)
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A Mike Schmidt era: a legendary, second-to-none run of success. 7% (607)
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Other 3% (237)
Total votes: 9,170