Diamondbacks, Robbie Ray Hadn’t Been Discussing Extension
There won’t be any extension negotiations happening anytime soon around the baseball world, though even prior to the league shutdown, the Diamondbacks and left-hander Robbie Ray weren’t engaging in any talks about a new deal, the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required) reports. Ray is scheduled to be a free agent in the 2020-21 offseason, and he is still set to hit the open market even in the event that the 2020 season doesn’t happen, as per the recent agreement between the league and the players’ union.
An extension between Ray and the D’Backs never seemed overly likely, as the southpaw has been a fixture in trade rumors for over a year. Rather than be one of the prominent Diamondbacks stars to leave town via trade (i.e. Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke) in recent years, Ray now looks to follow Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock on the list of D’Backs who left in free agency. Despite this turnover, however, GM Mike Hazen has remodeled the Snakes into a team that looks like it could compete for a postseason berth if the 2020 season happens, especially after a busy winter that saw Arizona acquire Madison Bumgarner and Starling Marte.
While last summer’s Greinke trade indicates that we can’t be totally sure that the D’Backs wouldn’t try to move Ray even if they remain in contention, Ray doesn’t have nearly the payroll impact that Greinke’s contract carried. Ray avoided arbitration in his third and final arb-eligible year by agreeing to a $9.43MM for 2020, meaning that he didn’t represent much of a financial burden even before the league shutdown, and Ray will now earn only a prorated amount of that $9.43MM figure based on the number of games actually played in the shortened schedule.
It’s a more than reasonable price to pay for a starter who has been occasionally spectacular but mostly solid over the last five seasons. Since coming to Arizona as part of the three-team trade with the Tigers and Yankees that sent Didi Gregorius to New York and Shane Greene to Detroit in December 2014, Ray has a 3.96 ERA, 11.3 K/9, and 2.77 K/BB rate over 762 innings. Ray has battled some control and hard-contact issues, and has consistently had difficultly keeping the ball in the park, though getting out of Chase Field could help address that latter problem. The 28-year-old southpaw has allowed 58 homers in 349 2/3 innings at Chase Field over his career, and only 52 home runs in 441 innings elsewhere.
Another good season would have put Ray in line for a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had Ray ranked sixth in the first edition of the 2020-21 free agent power rankings (written in February). Projecting what Ray might earn is now much harder, of course, given the total uncertainty of what next winter’s market could look like in the aftermath of the abbreviated-or-canceled 2020 season.
Details On The MLB/MLBPA 2020 Season Agreement
Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association reached a deal Thursday addressing many of the outstanding questions facing the game in the wake of the coronavirus shutdown, including how the two sides will address a shortened (or perhaps altogether canceled) 2020 season. The specifics of this agreement still aren’t fully known, due in part to the ongoing fluidity of how baseball and the players’ union will have to adjust to future events, though we’ve already learned quite a few ways in which the sport’s structure will be altered for this wholly unique season. Some of the latest details…
- ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel published a highly-recommended breakdown of the agreement, including an explanation of how MLB’s $170MM advance payment will be distributed to players if the season is cancelled entirely.
- Another key insight from Passan and McDaniel: “The arbitration system will be adjusted to consider lessened counting statistics because of the shorter season, and salaries secured during the 2021 offseason through arbitration won’t be used in the precedent-based system going forward.” No further detail is provided regarding the adjustment to the arbitration system, which in a sense is already set up to consider lessened counting statistics. For example, if Kris Bryant hits 20 home runs in the course of an 81-game 2020 season, will that be viewed as the equivalent of a 40 home run campaign? Passan and McDaniel’s other arbitration-related revelation – that the upcoming batch of arbitration salaries will be excluded as future precedents – implies that players may not have the luxury of getting a 40 home run type raise for a 20 home run half-season.
- The ESPN duo also notes that 2020 luxury tax payrolls will be assessed “base[d] it on what full-season salaries were supposed to be, not prorated salary payment.” This is notable in that a team like the Yankees, who are way above the luxury tax threshold, will still be taxed even though they will actually pay out much less than $208MM in salaries. The actual tax paid will be prorated, according to Passan and McDaniel. The writers also explain, “And if there is no season, there will be no taxes owed, implying every team would reset to the lowest competitive balance tax threshold.” Before the coronavirus struck, teams such as the Red Sox and Cubs basically devoted their offseasons to getting under the threshold and resetting their tax rate for the future.
- Speaking of veteran players on minor league contracts, several of those deals contained player opt-out dates set five days prior to the Opening Day that never occurred. MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter link) has heard speculation that the league could simply push those deadlines to five days prior to the season’s new start. With no official policy yet in place, we’ve seen different approaches from various teams to this issue, ranging from some clubs agreeing to delay opt-out decision dates independently, to some teams officially selecting a non-roster player’s contract in order to confirm their place on the Major League roster.
- The MLB/MLBPA agreement also has a provision for players who aren’t on a 40-man roster but are on guaranteed contracts, the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan tweets. Such players as the Diamondbacks‘ Yasmany Tomas “will receive more advance pay than a minor-leaguer,” though it isn’t clear if they would receive the full $5K daily salary through April and May. Tomas was set to make $17MM in 2020, which was the last season of his six-year, $68.5MM deal signed back in December 2014. Arizona outrighted Tomas off its 40-man roster in each of the last two seasons, and he has appeared in only four Major League games for the D’Backs in that time.
- For a high-level explainer of this week’s agreement between MLB and the MLBPA, check out Jeff Todd’s video here.
Victor Robles Joins Newly-Founded Republik Agency
Word broke earlier this month that agent Rafa Nieves was leaving the Wasserman Agency, and Nieves tweeted yesterday from his personal account that he had finalized his departure. The next step appears to be his own firm, as Nieves’s Twitter bio identifies himself as the CEO and founder of Republik Sports.
As per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link), “many players” currently represented by Nieves are leaving Wasserman for Republik. A look at Republik’s Instagram page gives hints about some of those names, and the TalkNats blog tweets that Nationals outfielder Victor Robles will indeed be joining Nieves at the new agency. This change has been reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database.
It was less than three years ago that Nieves joined Wasserman, bringing several well-known clients (including Robles, Jose Ramirez, Gregory Polanco, Alex Colome, Francisco Cervelli, Frankie Montas, and Kelvin Herrera) along with him to the agency. Nieves, a 36-year-old Venezuela native, has already become a notable figure in the representation business, as detailed by The Athletic’s Marc Carig in a profile from last August.
The 22-year-old Robles became an everyday player for the first time in 2019, hitting .255/.326/.419 with 17 homers over 617 plate appearances for Washington. While Robles’ hitting (88 OPS+, 91 wRC+) was nothing to write home about, he was a major plus on the basepaths and especially in the outfield. Robles immediately established himself as one of the sport’s top defensive center fielders, posting a +6.1 UZR/150, +23 Defensive Runs Saved, and a league-best 23 Outs Above Average. This performance earned Robles a sixth-place finish in NL Rookie Of The Year voting, and his emergence helped the Nats make up for the departure of Bryce Harper in the outfield as the franchise went on to capture its first World Series title.
Between his age, glovework, and a solid offensive track record in the minors that hints at more progress to come at the plate, Robles looks like a foundational player for Washington. He is still two years away from arbitration eligibility and is under team control through the 2024 season. Though teams are unable to discuss contract extensions during the league-wide roster freeze, it stands to reason that the Nats would have interest in locking Robles up in a long-term deal. It’s worth mentioning that Nieves has a couple of prominent early-career extensions on his record, negotiating Ramirez’s current contract with the Indians and Polanco’s ongoing deal with the Pirates.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
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Optioned Players: 3/28/20
Today is the last day in which teams can option players to the minors before the MLB roster freeze kicks in. We’ll keep track of the smaller-scale option decisions around the league.
- The Padres optioned reliever Gerardo Reyes to Triple-A El Paso, the club announced. The righty logged 26 innings in 27 MLB appearances in 2019, his first big league action. Reyes’ 7.62 ERA was certainly not what he envisioned, but he struck out a very strong 32.5% of opposing hitters behind a 15.6% swinging strike rate. Reyes averaged 96.9 MPH with above-average spin on his fastball in his MLB work and looks like a solid relief prospect for the Friars.
Marlins Option Monte Harrison, Nick Neidert
The Marlins have optioned a pair of prospects to Triple-A Wichita, per multiple reporters (including Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Outfielder Monte Harrison and right-hander Nick Neidert are headed to the Pacific Coast League.
Both Harrison, 24, and Neidert, 23, finished last season at the minors’ highest level, but each looked in need of a bit more seasoning. Harrison hit a passable .274/.357/.451 in 244 plate appearances with New Orleans (Miami’s previous Triple-A affiliate) last season. However, the former second-rounder’s longstanding strikeout troubles in the minors persisted.
Neidert, meanwhile, worked to a 5.05 ERA in nine Triple-A starts. That’s better than it seems on the surface given the hitter-friendly nature of the PCL. The control artist’s walk rate spiked dramatically in his 41 innings there, though, and his ground ball rate fell precipitously.
Both Harrison and Neidert still look to be solid, near-ready assets for the Marlins’ organization. They’re each among the club’s top 15 prospects, per Baseball America.
Today is the final day teams can option players before MLB’s roster freeze kicks in. As Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic points out, there’s a rationale behind teams’ recent spate of options around the league. By optioning players who didn’t figure to crack the Opening Day roster, the Marlins (and other teams who make similar moves) insulate themselves from paying an MLB salary if the players involved were to suffer a long-term injury while the sport is on hiatus. Upon the league’s resumption, such players would go on the minor-league injured list, where they would receive a minor-league salary and (presumably) not accrue MLB service time.
Breakout Candidate: Willie Calhoun
Willie Calhoun was up and down between the majors and Triple-A quite a few times between 2017 and the first half of 2019. Last June, he got his long-awaited opportunity to play every day, emerging as the Rangers’ starting left fielder. He made the most of it at the plate, hitting .269/.323/.524 (110 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 337 plate appearances. Yet even those solid results seem to belie an impressive, exceedingly rare skillset. Very few players can match Calhoun’s combination of bat-to-ball skills and power.
Last year, Calhoun made contact on 85.4% of his swings; he swung and missed at just 7.2% of total pitches he saw, per Fangraphs. Both those marks are well better than the respective league averages of 76.2% and 11.1%. That places Calhoun among the top 30 or 40 contact hitters in the game- very good, if not quite exceptional. However, unlike many of the game’s bat control artists, Calhoun is also capable of doing damage. His 89.7 MPH average exit velocity would have placed him in the 63rd percentile leaguewide had he amassed enough plate appearances to qualify, per Statcast.
Combining elite bat-to-ball skills and above-average power on contact is tougher than one might expect. In 2019, only D.J. LeMahieu, Nick Markakis, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Justin Turner had both a lower swinging strike rate and higher average exit velocity than did Calhoun (minimum 300 plate appearances). That’s an eye-catching assortment of names. It’s not a guarantee that Calhoun’s about to emerge as one of the game’s best hitters; Markakis, for instance, was merely average last year. But it does at least confirm Calhoun has a pair of key traits in common with many of the game’s best bats.
Maybe it isn’t surprising Calhoun seems to have massive offensive upside. He raked throughout his minor-league career, and scouts have long lauded his potential at the plate. There’s a reason Calhoun, while a prospect, headlined Texas’ return package for prime Yu Darvish despite concerns about his defense (which have also ultimately proven true). He’s a LF/DH at this point, so he’ll have to rake to warrant continued playing time.
To unlock the next gear offensively, the 25-year-old could stand to be a bit more selective. It seems reasonable to project that coming. After all, he’s only been an everyday big leaguer for half a season. He won’t ever be confused for Joey Votto, but given his other attributes, he needn’t be. Even a small progression in pitch selection could go a long way.
Calhoun should get every opportunity to cement himself as a middle-of-the-order force in Texas. While a scary hit-by-pitch fractured his jaw earlier this month, the most recent indication is that he’s recovering well.
Latest On MLB Plans For Team Employees
We’ve been learning quite a bit about Major League Baseball’s coronavirus plans involving players, whose relationships with the league are conditioned upon a collective bargaining agreement. But teams also employ quite a few other personnel under rather different terms.
It has not been clear to this point just how the league would handle non-uniformed employees. But the MLB commissioner’s office has acted to secure coordinated action on this front, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com and Evan Drellich of The Athletic (Twitter link).
Every team has agreed to continue employing all non-player personnel in the regular fashion through the end of April. That will ensure steady paychecks for a large number of employees, though it’s worth remembering that not all workers associated with a ballclub and ballpark — say, vendors — are necessarily employed by the team. (The league has previously promised at least $30MM to ballpark workers — $1MM per team.. The Red Sox have boosted that amount, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets.)
The question remains: what’ll happen when the calendar flips to May? That isn’t known at present and will surely depend upon how the global coronavirus pandemic plays out. If baseball is ramping back up for play come that time, perhaps a broad loss of jobs can be forestalled altogether. Further coordination could take place at the league level, but it’s also possible teams will at some point be left to set their own courses.
Mets Still Pursuing Sale Efforts
If you presumed the Mets had suspended their efforts to find a new owner, think again. Per Daniel Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription link), the club’s representatives are continuing to seek purchasers.
It’s hard to believe it was less than two months ago that the club broke off its anticipated deal with minority owner Steve Cohen. Under that arrangement, the current Wilpon ownership group would’ve retained operational control for a five-year period. The team is now offering an arrangement with no strings attached.
Suffice to say the economic picture for a baseball franchise is rather more complicated now than it was then. Still, it sounds as if the Mets are sticking to their $2.6B asking price and still pressing forward in an effort to find a taker.
As Kaplan writes, some initial leads have already dried up with the sudden economic downturn. Ongoing uncertainty, both generally and in the operation of a major-league organization, will surely give added pause.
Still, this represents quite a rare opportunity to take over a New York-based baseball club. If indeed the team is able to maintain traction on the sale effort, it could make for an interesting test of the value of franchises.
It’s often said that operating profit isn’t the true source of a team’s value; rather, like a piece of fine art, the investment lies in capital appreciation. That may well be. But teams have increasingly shown an appreciation for the end-of-year bottom line. Cash flow is a significant part of the picture when it comes to the game of baseball. In this case, the spigot seems sure to turn back on, but it’s possible it may sputter for a time and may not flow in quite the same way once it steadies.
MLB, MLBPA Reach Agreement On Service Time, Salaries, Draft
MARCH 27, 8:30pm: Union chief Tony Clark says that competitive balance taxes would not be assessed in the event that the season is cancelled, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links). Generally, Clark indicated that the players are amenable to all manner of creative solutions to get in as much of the season as possible. It sounds as if both sides see merit in expanding rosters to facilitate that effort.
12:35pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter) and Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter links) provides further details. This year’s draft class will only be eligible to receive up to $100K of bonus money up front, with the remainder paid in two equal installments in 2021 and 2022. Draft selections and international slots may not be traded in the typical, limited manner. Suspensions will apply as usual for the upcoming season but will not carry further into the future if the 2020 season is cancelled.
11:29am: MLB owners have unanimously ratified the agreement, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
6:05am: In addition to the dramatically shortened draft, the players acquiesced on signing bonuses for draftees, Rosenthal further reports within a much more expansive piece on the deal between the two sides (subscription required).
Slot values in the draft will be frozen at 2019 levels for the next two years as opposed to the roughly three percent year-over-year increase that has been standard. That decision will surely draw its share of criticism, though it’s clear that the players’ focus is on those currently within their union. Player representatives, in particular, figure to take umbrage with ownership’s push to reduce bonuses; Scott Boras calls it “unconscionable” that ownership would “use a pandemic situation in our country as a means to [reduce draftees’ bonuses].”
MARCH 26: With the coronavirus at least delaying the Major League Baseball season, MLB and the MLBPA reached an agreement on several key issues Thursday night, as Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported. Service time, players’ salaries, roster moves, the draft and the upcoming international signing period are all addressed in the deal, which owners will vote on Friday. If it’s ratified, a roster freeze will go into effect for an indeterminate period of time, according to Evan Drellich of The Athletic.
A typical season would have featured 186 days overall, giving players up to 172 days of service time. We don’t know how many there will be this season, though, and that could have had lasting effects on players and teams had the two sides not hammered something out. Now, thanks to this agreement, all players who are active or on the injured list for the entirety of a shortened 2020 season will receive a full year of service time, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Players’ service time will be pro-rated in the event of a truncated campaign, Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds. So, if there’s a 100-day season and a player’s active for 50 of those days, he’ll get half a year of service. If no season happens at all, service time accrued will be based on the amount of days the player earned in 2019, per Rosenthal.
The service time portion of this pact is especially welcome news for many who are due to become free agents next winter. The likes of Mookie Betts, J.T. Realmuto and George Springer will all remain in position to reach free agency then even if a season does not take place. Meanwhile, pre-arbitration players (including names like Matt Chapman and Gleyber Torres) will stay on track to go through the arb process for the first time.
For now, those major leaguers and the rest around MLB will receive a $170MM advance (3 to 4 percent of their full salaries) spread over two months, Rosenthal reports. The union will distribute the money to four classes of players, but those with guaranteed contracts stand to rake in the largest total. The players’ salaries will be pro-rated based on how long the season lasts, and they won’t be able to sue for their full amounts, Rosenthal adds.
Looking ahead to the summer, this year’s amateur draft could go down to five rounds, per Passan, but MLB will have the ability to increase that total, Rosenthal relays, adding that the event won’t occur later than July. Players’ signing bonuses will be deferred, not given out up-front, and they’ll receive 10 percent now and 45 percent over the next two years. Meanwhile, undrafted free agents will be able to sign for up to $20K, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
In another decision that will have some effect on young talent from around the game, the upcoming international signing period could be delayed until as late as January 2021, Passan writes. It’s currently scheduled to run from July 2 of this year through June 15, 2021.
These are certainly noteworthy steps for baseball during a time of such uncertainty, though there are still more details to work out. For example, as Rosenthal notes, agreements on spring training and roster size have not come together to this point. Under normal circumstances, we’d have seen 26-man rosters this year, but it’s possible that number will increase for 2020 if a season does occur. According to Passan, there’s a possibility that if the regular season does happen, it will last from June through October and include more doubleheaders. The playoffs would bleed into November and perhaps include games at neutral sites.