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MLB Draft Signings: 7/2/19

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Here’s a look at the latest noteworthy draft signings, with the newest moves at the top of the post.  Click here for the full list of slot values and draft pool bonuses, and you can find prospect rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America’s Top 500,  Fangraphs’ Top 200, MLB.com’s Top 200, and the Top 50 of ESPN.com’s Keith Law….

  • The Rockies have agreed to sign sign second-round right-hander Karl Kauffmann, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. Kauffmann’s pick (No. 77) came with an assigned slot value of $805,600, and that’s just what he’ll receive, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). Callis and colleague Jonathan Mayo ranked the 21-year-old Kauffmann as the 110th-best player available entering the draft, crediting the ex-Michigan standout with “one of the livelier fastballs in the college ranks.” His fastball sits between 91 and 94 mph, though it’s capable of hitting 96, and he showed an ability to maintain his velocity deep in games with the Wolverines. Kauffmann complements his heater with a good changeup and an inconsistent slider, per Callis and Mayo, who write he possesses “a relatively high floor.”

17 Above Average Hitters Who Could Be Available This Month

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Looking to trade for an impact bat this month?  Options are limited, but here are 17 position players who are projected by Steamer to post a weighted on-base average of at least .321 (the American League non-pitcher average mark) from here on out.

First Basemen/Designated Hitters

  • Jose Abreu, White Sox (.351 projected wOBA) – As a player about to hit free agency on a non-contending team, you’d think Abreu would be a prime candidate to be traded by the White Sox.  However, interest is mutual in keeping the 32-year-old in Chicago, and that seems the most likely outcome.
  • Brandon Belt, Giants (.347) – Though underpowered for his position, Belt gets on base and can still help an offense.  The obstacle to a trade is his contract, which still has more than $37MM remaining through 2021.  He also has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to ten teams.
  • Justin Smoak, Blue Jays (.347) – Smoak is best utilized in a platoon, since he doesn’t hit well against left-handed pitching.  He’ll have less than $3MM left on his contract at the trade deadline and is a strong candidate to be traded.
  • Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.345) – Cabrera’s power hasn’t shown up this season, and he’ll require a DH spot.  But the real impediment is the $142MM owed to him through 2023, plus a full no-trade clause.  It seems impossible the Tigers could find a way to unload that contract, even if an accomplished veteran hitter like Cabrera could help a contender.

Outfielders

  • Yasiel Puig, Reds (.348) – As rough as Puig’s year has been, from May 3rd onward he’s hitting .275/.335/.534 in 194 plate appearances.  A case could be made that he’s the best hitter available this month, though with playoff odds of 6.9%, the Reds might hang around just enough to prevent a Puig trade.  He’s a free agent after the season.
  • Michael Conforto, Mets (.347) – The Mets have similar playoff odds to the Reds, and may be reluctant to punt on their season unless that changes.  Even then, trading the 26-year-old Conforto with two years of control remaining seems unlikely.
  • Nicholas Castellanos, Tigers (.344) – A free agent after the season, Castellanos is very likely to be traded this month.  At the deadline he’ll have about $3.3MM left on his contract.  Castellanos continues to struggle defensively, but he’s clearly an above-average hitter.
  • Trey Mancini, Orioles (.334) – Mancini, 27, is having what appears to be a breakout year and probably should have represented the Orioles at the All-Star Game.  He’s controlled through 2022, so the Orioles should be in no rush to trade him if the offers aren’t impressive.  But teams seeking a controllable corner outfielder/first baseman will certainly be calling on Mancini.
  • Jorge Soler, Royals (.333) – Perhaps the most remarkable stat about the oft-injured Soler is that he’s played in every single Royals game this year.  A healthy amount of time at DH plays a part in that.  Soler could wind up with 40 home runs if he stays healthy, though he’s not hitting for average or drawing walks this year.  He still brings undeniable right-handed power, and he’s controlled through 2021.
  • Starling Marte, Pirates (.333) – Since returning from a collision-related injury on April 30th, Marte is hitting .295/.340/.485 in 257 plate appearances.  He’s also the only player here who profiles as a regular in center field.  Marte can be controlled affordably through 2021.  However, the Pirates don’t seem inclined to give up on their season, so Marte and the rest of their outfielders will probably stay put.
  • Mitch Haniger, Mariners (.329) – Haniger, recovering from a ruptured testicle, is not expected back until after the All-Star break.  The Mariners control him through 2022 and seem unlikely to rush him back in late July to make such a crucial trade.
  • Domingo Santana, Mariners (.327) – Santana has two years of control remaining, and the Mariners will likely prefer to keep him in their outfield with Haniger as they try to contend in the near future.  But with Jerry Dipoto at the helm, I had to list Santana here.
  • Corey Dickerson, Pirates (.323)
  • Melky Cabrera, Pirates (.321)

Infielders

  • Derek Dietrich, Reds (.329) – As with Puig, the Reds may be close enough to contention (and the offers unimpressive enough) that they ride with the players they have rather than execute a sell-off.  But with Scooter Gennett back, the Reds could at least consider trading him or Dietrich this month.
  • Tommy La Stella, Angels (.321) – The Angels’ surprising All-Star is under team control only through next year, and the club’s playoff odds sit at 2.2%.  Given that La Stella only just hit his way out of bench duty with a stellar half-season, the Halos would likely have a hard time cashing him in for notable prospects.
  • Wilson Ramos, Mets (.321) – If you’re seeking an offensive-minded catcher, Ramos is your guy.  The Mets could try to unload the $13.5MM still left on his contract, though they’d have to hand over the reins to Tomas Nido full-time at least for the rest of the season.

Injury Notes: Carpenter, Hamels, Athletics, Pence

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The Cardinals placed third baseman Matt Carpenter on the injured list Tuesday because of lower back spasms, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. They recalled reliever John Brebbia from Triple-A Memphis to take Carpenter’s roster spot. Expectations are Carpenter will return July 12, the first game of the season’s second half, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets. Injury aside, the normally excellent Carpenter is one of several Cardinals to come up short of expectations so far in 2019. The 33-year-old’s off to a .216/.325/.381 start (90 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 326 plate appearances, putting him on pace to fall way shy of last season’s 36-HR outburst. Carpenter hasn’t started since last Tuesday, which has left third base to Tommy Edman and Yairo Munoz over the past week.

Here’s more on a few other notable injury situations…

  • The Cubs seem to have dodged a worst-case scenario with injured southpaw Cole Hamels, who suffered a strained left oblique last Friday. Manager Joe Maddon revealed Tuesday that Hamels is “feeling a lot better quicker than we anticipated,” adding the 35-year-old’s MRI delivered positive results (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times). However, there’s still no timetable for the return of Hamels, who has joined the just-returned Kyle Hendricks as one of the Cubs’ top two starters this season.
  • A right knee sprain forced Athletics right fielder Stephen Piscotty to the IL last Sunday. While an MRI didn’t show a tear, Piscotty could still miss a month of action, according to manager Bob Melvin (via Martin Gallegos of MLB.com). Meanwhile, the Athletics finally activated catcher Chris Herrmann from the IL on Tuesday. Herrmann hasn’t gotten to play for the A’s yet since signing a one-year, $1MM deal with the team in the offseason, having undergone arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in early March. Oakland optioned fellow backstop Beau Taylor to Triple-A Las Vegas to clear a 25-man spot for Herrmann and moved injured catcher Nick Hundley to the 60-day IL to open up 40-man space.
  • Rangers All-Star designated hitter/outfielder Hunter Pence suffered a setback during his minor league rehab game Monday, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. There’s no new injury for Pence, who has been out since June 17 with a right groin strain, though it’s now possible he won’t be healthy enough to participate in the All-Star Game. Manager Chris Woodward said Tuesday that Pence is unlikely to return until after the break, but he could still get an at-bat in the Midsummer Classic.

Dilson Herrera Opts Out Of Mets Contract

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Infielder Dilson Herrera has opted out of his minor league contract with the Mets, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Herrera had been with the team since late November.

This ends Herrera’s second stint as a member of the Mets, who originally acquired him from the Pirates in a 2013 trade involving outfielder Marlon Byrd and catcher John Buck. Herrera was a well-regarded prospect at the time who continued climbing up lists after the deal, but shoulder problems stunted his development and hastened his departure from the Mets. They traded Herrera to the Reds for outfielder Jay Bruce in August 2016, after the former had collected just 169 plate appearances in a New York uniform.

Herrera was a member of the Cincinnati organization until rejoining the Mets last winter. He only collected 97 trips to the plate as a Red, all last season, and owns a .203/.293/.394 line with a 91 wRC+ and 11 home runs in 266 major league attempts. The 25-year-old has been much more productive in Triple-A ball, where he has slashed .285/.350/.477 with 57 HRs in 1,561 attempts. Herrera added 17 of those homers this year as a member of the the Mets’ top affiliate in Syracuse and batted .258/.355/.566 (126 wRC+) in 256 PA.

The Surprisingly Disappointing Paul Goldschmidt

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There haven’t been many better major leaguers than first baseman Paul Goldschmidt since he made his debut with the Diamondbacks in 2011. From Goldschmidt’s first big league at-bat through last season, he slashed .297/.398/.532 with 209 home runs in 4,708 plate appearances and showed off rare athleticism for his position, adding 124 stolen bases. During his first seven-plus years in the bigs, Goldschmidt tied for sixth in wRC+ (144) and ranked ninth in fWAR (36.2). Goldschmidt did a large portion of that damage on a sweetheart contract for Arizona, which signed him to a five-year, $32MM guarantee entering 2013. When the club made that commitment to Goldschmidt, he was about to begin his first of six straight All-Star seasons.

With Goldschmidt on the brink of a contract year in 2019, he understandably wasn’t going to take a discount this time. And the Diamondbacks weren’t willing to splurge on Goldschmidt, even though he’s a franchise icon, prior to his age-31 season. As a result, the Diamondbacks made the difficult decision to trade Goldschmidt to the Cardinals last December for three players – right-hander Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly and infielder Andy Young – as well as a draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B. It looked like a solid haul at the time for one year of Goldschmidt, and indeed, Weaver and Kelly have impressed this year in the desert.

The Cardinals, who missed the playoffs in each of the previous three years, thought the Goldschmidt acquisition would inject new life into their lineup. The team was thrilled to reel in Goldschmidt, who finally got his enormous payday with a five-year, $130MM extension on the cusp of the season. So far, though, it hasn’t looked like a great allocation of funds. Goldschmidt has underwhelmed enough that he won’t be an All-Star this year, and the Redbirds have consistently taken one step forward and another back en route to a 41-41 record.

St. Louis’ offense ranks 21st in the majors in both runs and and wRC+. After adding one of the premier hitters of the past decade, the club expected much better. Goldschmidt hasn’t done a lot to help matters with his .246/.336/.405 line and 98 wRC+ through 352 plate appearances. While Goldschmidt has slugged 14 home runs, three came in the Cardinals’ second game of the season, when it looked like the start of an ideal match between him and the team.

On its surface, Goldschmidt’s middling production doesn’t mean this is the beginning of the end of an illustrious career. Just last year, he struggled through May before going on a three-month tear to restore his numbers. That said, it would be reasonable to sound some concern over Goldschmidt’s issues this year.

While Goldschmidt put up an expected weighted on-base average of .367 to .404 from 2015-18 – the first four seasons of the Statcast era – he’s down to .343 in that category this season. Granted, that’s definitely not awful – it ranks in the league’s 62nd percentile – though it’s not befitting of the superstar we’ve grown accustomed to watching. Moreover, a high batting average has always been a calling card for Goldschmidt, who’s a lifetime .294 hitter in part because he has registered a .351 BABIP in the majors. Goldschmidt’s BABIP this season has dropped to .302, which could be a sign of bad luck on its face, yet there’s almost no gap between his .246 average/.248 expected BA in 2019. He’s also walking less than he has since 2011, albeit at a still-solid 11.4 percent clip, while chasing more out-of-zone pitches than ever and making less in-zone contact than he has in any season but his rookie introduction.

Less contact on strikes has led to less power for Goldschmidt, who has limped to a .159 ISO thus far. That’s a 75-point drop in comparison to 2011-18 (.234) and a below-average mark relative to the league (.180). Going back to 2018, Goldschmidt showed power all over the strike zone, including on the inner and outer halves of the plate. This year, though, those pitches have largely thrown him for a loop.

When Goldschmidt has gotten on base this season, his long-established ability to steal has been nonexistent. Goldschmidt has swiped at least 15 bags in five seasons, though that number dipped to seven last year and has fallen to zero in 2019. He has only attempted to steal once, in fact, likely because his top speed has waned. Goldschmidt’s sprint speed has gradually come down in recent years and only ranks in the game’s 37th percentile, per Statcast.

Three months into Goldschmidt’s Cardinals career, it’s much too soon to say this type of production is his new normal. Frankly, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Goldschmidt go on a vintage run in the coming months. Considering the Cardinals’ place in this year’s NL postseason chase, not to mention the $22MM per annum they owe Goldschmidt through 2024, they need a rebound from their franchise player sooner than later.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season

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The Marlins acquired second baseman Starlin Castro from the Yankees entering 2018 as a way to balance out money in a blockbuster trade. Miami received Castro in its return for then-reigning NL MVP outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, whose onerous contract largely exited the Marlins’ books. When he arrived in South Florida, Castro’s pact included a remaining two years and approximately $22MM in guarantees, far from an unreasonable total considering his track record at that point. Still, the rebuilding Marlins couldn’t find a taker throughout 2018 for Castro, who posted yet another average season in a career full of them.

Even though he came into this year as a four-time All-Star and a 1,445-hit man, Castro hasn’t been a spectacular major leaguer. Also a former Cub, the 29-year-old slashed .281/.321/.411 (97 wRC+) from 2010-18 and was coming off four straight seasons with 2.3 fWAR or fewer.

Three months into 2019, the Marlins would surely love another year of Castro’s typically decent production. They’ve gotten anything but that so far. Castro’s stuck in the worst season of his career with minus-1.2 fWAR – good for last among qualified major league hitters – through 345 plate appearances. With a .230/.258/.313 line, Castro’s 51 wRC+ is also the lowest in the game. It basically suggests the 2019 version of Castro has been half the hitter he was in the prior nine seasons.

While Castro continued to look like a potential trade candidate at the outset of the season, that’s probably out the window now. Furthermore, there’s no chance he’ll stay off the free-agent market in the offseason. Castro’s employer will have a chance to pick up a $16MM club option over the winter, but the team’s sure to buy him out for $1MM instead, officially concluding the seven-year, $60MM extension he signed as a potential Cubs cornerstone in August 2012.

A look beyond Castro’s woeful bottom-line production this year shows this isn’t just a case of poor luck. A solid batting average has long driven Castro’s offensive numbers, but his regular BA and expected average (.243) are horrific. Similarly, Castro ranks near the bottom of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (8th percentile), expected slugging percentage (15th percentile), average exit velocity (46th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (46th percentile), per Statcast.

Never one to draw many walks or amass a lot of strikeouts, Castro’s numbers in those categories look fairly normal. He has collected walks at a 4 percent clip, down 1.1 percent from his lifetime mark, and struck out 17.3 percent of the time – not far from a 16.8 career mean. On the other hand, Castro’s .319 batting average on balls in play is down to a meager .262 this year, in part because of the less impactful contact he has made. Power has never really been a hallmark for Castro, though his .083 ISO is easily his lowest in several years and ranks third from last in baseball.

For the most part, the right-handed Castro has performed respectably against same-handed and lefty pitchers alike, which is a key reason why he has been a regular for so long. However, righties are now stymieing Castro, who has put forth a horrendous 35 wRC+ against them this year. Back in 2017, when Castro logged an overall 109 wRC+ to end his Yankees stint, he showed at least some power against righties over the middle and inner half of the plate. That power has now completely evaporated, however.

Even though Castro has never possessed much pop, what he used to have help make him a credible major league hitter. Now, as Castro’s power has disappeared, so has his usefulness as a player. Perhaps it’ll come back at some point, but the way Castro’s trending, he’s heading toward a cold winter in free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tigers To Select Tyler Alexander

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8:15pm: The Tigers announced Alexander as the starter for tomorrow’s second game. A 40-man roster move will be announced tomorrow.

8:11pm: Tonight’s game between the Tigers and White Sox has been postponed due to rain, which could impact the team’s decision with Alexander, McCosky tweets.

7:58pm: The Tigers will select the contract of lefty Tyler Alexander tomorrow, reports Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. He’ll be the 26th man of tomorrow’s doubleheader against the White Sox and start Game 2 of that twin bill.

Alexander, 24, was a second-round pick out of Texas Christian University back in 2015. He’s had a rough start to the season due largely to troubles with the long ball, as evidenced by an unsightly 6.23 ERA. Alexander, however, has a pristine 87-to-18 K/BB ratio in 73 2/3 innings (10.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9) and has a 3.67 ERA through 34 1/3 innings over the course of his past six starts. He’ll get the nod over many of the club’s more heralded pitching prospects, but because he’ll serve as the 26th man, his promotion will be a one-off appearance anyhow. His addition to the 40-man roster should put Alexander in line to make some additional appearances for an injury-depleted Tigers pitching staff later in the season.

Alexander’s standing within the Tigers’ prospect rankings has slipped as the team’s system has improved over the course of its rebuild. He was once considered to be among the organization’s more promising overall prospects but has taken a bit of a backseat with the arrival of new arms and some diminished results of his own in recent seasons. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs mentioned him in their overview of Detroit’s system heading into the season, writing that Alexander “throws strikes and eats innings and is a good bet to at least be a sixth starter type of depth arm.”

Jason Heyward’s Quietly Productive Season

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Outfielder Jason Heyward entered the majors as a can’t-miss prospect in 2010, three years after the Braves chose him 14th overall in the 2007 draft. Heyward made good on the hype in his first at-bat on Opening Day, smashing a three-run homer off Cubs right-hander Carlos Zambrano, and never really looked back from there in his first season. During a rookie campaign in which he didn’t turn 21 until August, Heyward posted 4.6 fWAR on the strength of tremendous offensive production and right field defense. Little did anyone know Heyward wouldn’t again approach the .277/.393/.456 slash and 134 wRC+ he recorded as a rookie.

Heyward did remain a quality hitter from 2011-15 with the Braves and Cardinals, albeit not as formidable as he was during his initial campaign. Still, combining the above-average offense, stellar defense and well-regarded base running he displayed over his first several seasons, he landed an eight-year, $184MM contract from the Cubs entering the 2016 campaign. Heyward was part of the Cubs’ drought-breaking World Series team in the initial year of his deal, in which he delivered a behind-the-scenes rain delay speech that may have helped the team overcome the Indians in Game 7.

Title aside, the Cubs mostly haven’t gotten the bang for their buck they wanted from giving Heyward one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. During his first three years in a Cubs uniform, Heyward slashed a paltry .252/.322/.367 (85 wRC+) in 1,562 plate appearances. Heyward continued to flash terrific defense during that period, but the overall package was worth just 4.1 fWAR – less than he registered in four individual seasons before heading to Chicago.

Heyward did manage a league-average 2.0 fWAR in 2018, indicating he was hardly a lost cause, though his offense was middling at best for the third consecutive season. This year has been a different story, however. Across 320 trips to the plate, the 29-year-old has hit .273/.364/.471 (116 wRC+) with 14 home runs – already his highest total as a Cub and his most in a season since 2013. With 1.4 fWAR at the 80-game mark, Heyward’s on pace for his most valuable year as a Cub. The figure’s still not excellent, in part because Heyward has struggled as a center fielder this year, but it’s respectable for a player whose Cubs tenure has been a disappointment overall.

The question is whether the above-average offensive version of Heyward has truly returned. If we’re to believe Statcast, maybe not. Heyward’s expected weighted on-base average, .324, ranks below the league mean and lags well behind his .355 real wOBA. Likewise, Heyward’s expected slugging percentage (30th percentile), hard-hit percentage (37th percentile), average exit velocity (54th percentile) and expected batting average (61st percentile) all range from well below par to a bit above it. The left-handed Heyward’s also continuing a career-long trend of having difficulty against same-handed pitchers, who have held him to a horrid .200/.262/.300 line and a 48 wRC+ this season.

On the other hand, Heyward’s showing off an impressive ability to draw walks that has helped buoy his numbers. With a 12.5 percent walk rate (his highest since his rookie year) against a 17.8 percent strikeout rate, Heyward’s K/BB ratio ranks 25th in the majors. Heyward’s also displaying way more power than he has in recent years, evidenced in part by his aforementioned home run spike. His isolated power (.199) is his greatest since 2012 and sits 84 points higher than the ISO he combined for during his first three Cubs seasons. Heyward’s doing much more damage throughout several zones compared to last year, as FanGraphs’ heat maps show (2018, 2019).

One cause: Heyward’s hitting far fewer infield fly balls than he did earlier in his Chicago stint. An infield fly’s essentially an automatic out, and Heyward hit them at a 16.9 percent rate over the prior three seasons. That number has shrunk to 10.4 this year. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Heyward has upped his hard contact by 6.1 percent compared to 2016-18 and decreased his soft-hit rate by almost 8 percent, according to FanGraphs. Heyward has also logged a 12.2-degree launch angle which ranks as his loftiest in the Statcast era.

None of this is to say the Cubs should be content with what they’ve gotten from Heyward during his run with the team. In fact, they’re stuck with Heyward, who won’t be opting out of the remaining four years and $86MM on his contract during the upcoming offseason. However, he has been a legitimate bright spot this year on a team that has been something of a letdown overall. The Cubs do hold a National League playoff spot at the moment, but not by much. They’ve been slumping since late May and have won just 45 of their first 85 games. Heyward certainly hasn’t been part of the problem, though.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yankees Release Kendrys Morales

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The Yankees announced Tuesday that first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales has cleared release waivers and is now a free agent. New York designated the veteran switch hitter for assignment last week.

It’s been a tough season for Morales, 36, who has posted a combined .194/.313/.253 batting line with two home runs in 201 plate appearances between the Athletics and Yankees. Morales is in the final season of a three-year, $33MM contract that he initially signed with the Blue Jays, who traded him to Oakland on the eve of their season opener in 2019. Despite his struggles this year, Morales notched a solid .249/.331/.438 batting line with 21 homers and 15 doubles in 471 plate appearances with Toronto a season ago. Any team that signs Morales would only owe him the prorated portion of the league minimum for any time he spends in the Majors.

Korea’s NC Dinos Sign Christian Friedrich, Jake Smolinski

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6:10pm: Smolinski has been granted his release by the Rays, tweets Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times.

10:00am: Korea’s NC Dinos are engineering some mid-season changes to their slate of foreign players. The club has wrapped up a deal with the indy ball New Britain Bees to purchase the contract of lefty Christian Friedrich, as first reported by the ALPB News Twitter account (link).

It seems the Dinos have eyes on another former major leaguer as well. Outfielder Jake Smolinski, who has been playing with the Rays’ top affiliate, is nearing a deal with the KBO club, according to baseball writer Sung Min Kim (Twitter link).

Teams in the Korea Baseball Organization are limited to three foreign players, among other regulations on spending. Accordingly, the Dinos will need to part ways with some existing players to facilitate these moves. Former big leaguers Christian Bethancourt and Eddie Butler will evidently be released to make way.

Friedrich, 31, has thrown nearly three hundred MLB innings, but the former top-100 prospect hasn’t cracked the bigs since 2016. He sat out all of last season but had shown well in the Atlantic League, posting 63 frames of 3.00 ERA ball with one strikeout per inning and 2.1 BB/9.

As for the 30-year-old Smolinski, he faced a tough path up to the majors in Tampa Bay. But the five-year MLB veteran has been hitting well this season at Triple-A, where he carries a .270/.360/.504 slash with a dozen home runs in 286 plate appearances.

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