The Latest Example Of Why An Arenado Trade Won’t Be Easy To Execute
Uncertainty surrounding Nolan Arenado‘s future with the Rockies has become one of the prevailing storylines of the offseason, given the perennial MVP candidate’s recent expression of discontent with the organization — general manager Jeff Bridich in particular. Recent drama notwithstanding, however, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes in his latest mailbag that a trade prior to spring training is “highly unlikely,” citing multiple sources.
Saunders notes (as others have suggested) that a summer trade of Arenado will become quite a bit more plausible if the Rockies don’t play well in the first half. Any trade involving Arenado, he adds, would need to center around an established Major Leaguer coming back to the Rockies in addition to multiple high-end prospects; owner Dick Monfort is not interested in simply clearing salary.
That line of thinking clashes with an afternoon report from ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers, who during a radio appearance on ESPN 1000 indicated that the Rockies and Cubs have at some point “discussed a one-for-one deal, Kris Bryant for Nolan Arenado,” with the Rockies absorbing substantial salary. Perhaps that’s a scenario to which the Cubs are amenable, but Rogers himself even made a point to later indicate he doesn’t expect a deal to come together and to stress (on Twitter) the distinction between something that’s “been discussed” and active trade talks.
Cubs fans have obviously taken a particular interest in that rumored exchange, but taking a step back and looking at the whole picture, it’s hard to imagine how such a deal would appeal to the Rockies or fit within the budgetary constraints under which both teams have been operating — let alone both. Even if the Rockies were to absorb the $7-8MM annually that Rogers suggests, the Cubs would still be adding $8-9MM to their luxury tax commitment.
Chicago already projects to be about $6.5MM north of the $208MM luxury barrier (per Roster Resource), so taking on that portion of that Arenado deal would push their luxury line into the $223MM range. That’s within striking distance of the $228MM point at which the second tier of penalization begins, which would leave the Cubs with minimal room for in-season additions. That could also become problematic if some of the non-roster players in camp earn spots on the MLB roster and start locking in the salaries on those deals. Players like Brandon Morrow ($1.25MM) and Hernan Perez ($1MM) will push that number north if they break camp with the team. And, of course, other players on the team have incentives in their contracts that can further elevate the number.
None of that sounds like much for the Cubs of years past, but they’ve been a much different team in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 offseasons. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma even reported back in December that the Cubs had interest in lefty reliever Alex Claudio but would’ve needed to clear some money to sign him, so he instead went to the Brewers on a one-year, $1.75MM deal. In total, the Cubs have signed off on $1.85MM in guaranteed salary to free agents this winter. Suddenly taking on Arenado and his nearly $34MM annual salary — even with the Rockies including cash — would be a radical about-face.
To this point, we’ve only looked at things from the Chicago organization’s point of view — but the Rockies obviously need to be considered as well. From their vantage point, the primary function of the rumored Bryant/Arenado swap would be salary relief — the very type of deal to which Monfort is opposed, per Saunders. Even if they sought to immediately reinvest some of those savings, the free-agent market has been mostly picked over. And looking purely at the optics, how should the Rockies plan to sell to their fan base that they’re paying Arenado $8MM annually to play elsewhere, with the return being a very good but lesser replacement at the hot corner?
The timing of Arenado’s comments and Bryant’s service-time resolution will surely link the two for the remainder of the offseason or until a transaction involving one of the two (likelier Bryant) takes place. A team interested in adding a potent bat to the lineup and/or improving at third base will explore trade scenarios involving both players, and it’s certainly possible that even the Cubs and Rockies themselves could explore a more layered swap involving multiple pieces. But the Rockies began the offseason by declaring a lack of payroll flexibility, and similar sentiments from the Cubs have been readily apparent since the onset of free agency. Drawing up a scenario that works financially for both parties without significantly worsening either roster is extremely difficult, and even that would assume that the Rockies are motivated to move Arenado — which Saunders stresses not to be the case.
Suffice it to say: there are innumerable intricacies involved when trying to draw up realistic trade scenarios involving players of this stature and this level of compensation. Both are likely to continue to circulate the rumor mill, but it’s immensely difficult to envision both changing hands in the same transaction.
Latest On Astros’ GM Opening
The Astros have spent a large portion of January reeling from the fallout of their 2017 sign-stealing scandal – one that cost them championship-winning GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch. They’ve already replaced Hinch, having hired decorated veteran skipper Dusty Baker on Wednesday, but there’s no successor to Luhnow yet. However, the Astros continue to tack on candidates in their quest to replace him.
Houston has interviewed Royals director of pro scouting/special assistant Gene Watson and Rays vice president of baseball operations James Click for its GM role, per reports from Jeff Passan of ESPN.com and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Watson and Click join MLB’s senior vice president of baseball operations, Peter Woodfork, and former Giants GM Bobby Evans as known candidates for the Astros’ vacancy.
It’s notable that Evans worked with Baker when the two were in San Francisco, but there’s no indication he or anyone else is the favorite at this point. It seems the Astros will continue to take their time in finding a new GM, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle explains. For now, owner Jim Crane and a four-executive team consisting of assistant GM Pete Putila, special assistant Kevin Goldstein, senior director of baseball strategy Bill Firkus and senior director of player evaluation Ehsan Bokhari are at the helm. That quartet played a part in Crane’s decision to hire Baker, per Rome, though it’s not clear whether anyone from it will emerge as a GM candidate for the club. It may not look good if the Astros do hire an in-house GM, considering that individual would have connections to the Luhnow-Hinch regime.
As for the newest outside possibilities, Watson – a Texas native – is a two-time World Series champion (2003 Marlins, 2015 Royals) with a long scouting history who has worked in Kansas City in various capacities since 2006. The Yale-educated Click caught on with the Rays the same year Watson joined the Royals. Click has since worked his way toward the top of a Rays front office that already lost another noteworthy exec earlier this offseason in Chaim Bloom, who became Boston’s chief baseball officer.
MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Reds?
The Reds entered the offseason on the heels of their sixth straight sub-.500 showing, but president of baseball operations Dick Williams made it known at the end of the campaign that a seventh consecutive subpar effort wouldn’t be acceptable. The team’s goal when the winter began was to build its first playoff-level roster since 2013, and with most of its offseason heavy lifting likely done by now, there’s a case Cincinnati has done just that.
As we noted previously, the Reds have been one of the highest-spending teams in the National League in free agency. They’ve added two $64MM players – infielder Mike Moustakas and newly signed outfielder Nick Castellanos – as well as $21MM outfielder Shogo Akiyama (their first-ever Japanese player) and $15MM left-hander Wade Miley via the open market.
Now, the Reds’ position player cast – a group that finished last season 21st in WAR and 25th in runs – suddenly looks promising with Castellanos, Akiyama and some mix of Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino and Nick Senzel in the outfield, Joey Votto at first base, Moustakas at second and Eugenio Suarez at third. But there are questions in the group, including the health of the 49-home run man Suarez – who could miss the beginning of the season after undergoing right shoulder surgery – and the strength of their catcher and shortstop positions. Both spots looked ripe for upgrades when the offseason began, but the Reds have so far stuck with Tucker Barnhart and Freddy Galvis, respectively, despite their interest in landing a much more formidable option at short. Moreover, there’s the possibility of a Senzel trade, which could provide a helpful return for one of the Reds’ weak spots, but Williams doesn’t sound like someone who’s ready to deal the prized 24-year-old.
Meanwhile, there doesn’t appear to be a lot to worry about in the Reds’ starting staff. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and Miley comprise an impressive one to five on paper, though Bauer did have more than a little bit of trouble preventing runs after the Reds acquired him from the Indians last July. The bullpen, although largely untouched this offseason, also boasts its share of stone-cold locks. Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Robert Stephenson and Amir Garrett are all returning after posting respectable or better numbers in 2019.
While it’s nice for the Reds that they’ve bettered their roster since last season’s 75-win effort, it’s also a boon that their division has seemingly taken steps back. The Cardinals won the NL Central in 2019, but they haven’t done anything all that notable since, and they just lost their No. 1 free agent, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, to the Braves. The Brewers – fresh off their second straight playoff season – have seen quite a few changes (good and bad) to their roster, including the losses of Moustakas and an even better free agent in catcher Yasmani Grandal. The Cubs have been quiet after a dismal finish to last season, and it’s still not out of the realm of possibility they’ll trade Kris Bryant or another important member of their roster before the new campaign rolls around. And then there’s the Pirates, who figure to be among the worst teams in the game this year.
Between the improvements they’ve made and the actions (or lack thereof) of their divisional foes, this may be the time for the Reds to return to relevance in the NL. The way their roster looks now, do you think they’re capable of doing so?
(Poll link for app users)
How many Reds wins do you expect?
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85-89 47% (11,040)
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80-84 26% (6,025)
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90 or more 22% (5,232)
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70-79 5% (1,202)
Total votes: 23,499
Pirates, Robbie Erlin Agree To Minor League Deal
The Pirates have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander Robbie Erlin, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports. The Apex Baseball client will be in Major League camp this spring and would lock in a $1.5MM salary if he makes the club. The deal also contains an extra $100K worth of incentives.
Erlin, 29, has 313 innings of big league experience, all coming with the Padres from 2013-19. He’s worked both out of the rotation (38 career starts) and the bullpen (68 relief outings) and compiled a career 4.57 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9 and a 43.4 percent ground-ball rate. Notably, his career ERA as a reliever (3.86) is more than a run better than his earned run average out of the rotation (4.98).
This past season, Erlin showed above-average spin on his fastball and curve, and it’s also worth pointing out that his career FIP (3.59) is nearly a full run lower than his ERA. Erlin has routinely been plagued by a below-average strand rate, and last year’s ugly 5.37 earned run average was in part impacted by a sky-high .373 average on balls in play.
The Pirates don’t have an established lefty in their bullpen at the moment, so Erlin will give the club some spring competition for Sam Howard and fellow non-roster southpaws Nik Turley and Brandon Waddell.
Astros Hire Dusty Baker
5:34pm: The Astros formally announced that they’ve hired Baker as their new skipper.
4:08pm: Baker’s contract is actually a one-year deal with a club option for the 2021 season, per Nightengale and Rosenthal (Twitter links).
3:15pm: The Astros have found their replacement for recently fired manager A.J. Hinch, having reached an agreement on a “short-term” deal with veteran skipper Dusty Baker, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). It’s a two-year pact, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Nightengale reported yesterday that Baker was the team’s choice, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added that a deal would be finalized today.
When Baker formally puts his signature on a contract, it’ll set the stage for a fascinating season in Houston. The Astros are loaded with talent but face no shortage of organizational adversity in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal that resulted in the firing of prior manager A.J. Hinch and GM Jeff Luhnow. The club has yet to hire a new baseball operations leader.
Baker, who commands a presence as large as anyone else in the game, certainly comes with an old-school vibe that runs counter to the analytically driven organizational culture that had predominated in Houston. But the job of this skipper will be to help guide the team through a difficult stretch; Baker is generally beloved in clubhouses and charming with the press. And his different cultural mooring may well be an asset in this case.
It’s also rather unfair to dismiss Baker as a present-day manager. True, he has not yet taken a team to the promised land in his 22 seasons as a manager. He ultimately became a bit of a symbol for certain outdated thinking about the game, particularly regarding the management of pitchers. But Baker has expressed an openness to evolving and certainly didn’t stop his most recent team from posting a whole lot of wins.
Baker’s 2016-17 stint with the Nationals provides quite the secondary dramatic undergirding for the coming season. His D.C. charges posted 95 and 97 win seasons, claiming consecutive NL East titles. But the team lost a pair of heartbreaking postseason series and Baker was somewhat surprisingly not offered a new contract after the end of the year.
It seemed Baker, now 70 years of age, had missed out on his final shot at a World Series. Now, he’ll have another. And he’ll do so with the team that just lost a barn-burning Game 7 to those very same Nats, who finally donned an elusive crown. Those two teams share a Spring Training facility that’s sure to draw flocks of press (and provide quite the boon to the West Palm Beach Marriott). And they’re also slated to square off in a series in D.C. over July 4th weekend.
Giants To Re-Sign Pablo Sandoval
The Giants have reached a deal to bring third baseman Pablo Sandoval back to the organization, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. It’ll be a minor league arrangement with a $2MM base salary in the event that Sandoval makes the club. Sandoval, a Beverly Hills Sports Council client, can also earn an additional $750K via incentive pay.
Sandoval, 33, has spent the past two and a half seasons back with the Giants after being cut loose by the Red Sox at the halfway point of an ill-fated $95MM contract. While he hasn’t been the hitter he was at his peak during the Giants’ even-year dynasty, he turned in a quality .268/.313/.507 slash with 14 long balls in a part-time role in 2019. His season, however, came to an early end at the beginning of September with the revelation that he required Tommy John surgery. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets that Sandoval is ahead of schedule in his rehab from that procedure.
With Evan Longoria still locked in as the everyday third baseman in San Francisco, another backup role seems likely for Sandoval. He’s surely amenable to whatever role will keep him in the Bay Area, though, as the beloved Giants fan favorite recently voiced his desire to retire as a Giant. He’d presumably step into a larger role in the event of a Longoria injury and will otherwise see occasional time at first base and perhaps even at second base in emergency situation after logging seven innings there in 2019.
Scott Kazmir Launches Comeback Attempt
Three full seasons have elapsed since Scott Kazmir pitched in a Major League game, but the veteran left-hander is set to launch another comeback attempt at 36 years of age. Kazmir recently tweeted a video of himself throwing in a bullpen session, and the former Rays, Indians, Angels, A’s and Dodgers southpaw confirmed to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he hopes to return to the big leagues in 2020.
Kazmir, who’s open to a minor league contract and a chance to prove himself in Spring Training (as he’d need to be after such a lengthy absence), tells Topkin he’s still in the process of rebuilding his arm strength and fastball velocity. He’s worked out with Driveline this winter and recently topped out at 90.9 mph in a bullpen session. That’s already a far sight higher than the 86 mph at which his heater sat when he first began throwing with an eye toward a big league return. Kazmir’s fastball sat at 91.4 mph in his final season with the Dodgers in 2016, so he’s not quite yet even topping out at his previous fastball average. However, he also has nearly two months before the season would begin.
This, of course, wouldn’t be the first comeback attempt for Kazmir. The former Rays ace saw a sharp decline in 2009-10, pitched just 1 2/3 innings in 2011 and was out of affiliated baseball entirely in 2012 before embarking on a similar journey. That career renaissance proved quite fruitful, as Kazmir parlayed a minor league deal with the Indians into a quality 2013 campaign in which he tossed 158 innings of 4.04 ERA ball with better than a strikeout per inning.
That showing landed him a two-year, $22MM deal with the A’s the following winter, and Kazmir made good on that deal as well, throwing a combined 373 1/3 frames of 3.33 ERA ball with the Athletics and (following a 2015 trade) the Astros. He headed into the 2015-16 offseason as a highly sought-after commodity and landed a three-year, $48MM pact with the Dodgers that proved regrettable for the club when neck and hip injuries wiped out years two and three of that pact.
It’s been a long time since Kazmir was at the top of his game, but he’s nevertheless a three-time All-Star with six career seasons featuring a sub-4.00 ERA and at least 140 innings of work. In total, Kazmir has a 4.01 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.01 HR/9 and a 40.2 percent ground-ball rate in 1689 2/3 innings at the MLB level. Given that the free-agent class has been largely picked over at this point in the winter, a returning Kazmir adds a source of genuine intrigue to the dwindling remnants of this year’s class of open-market starters.
Kris Bryant Has “No Ill Will” Towards Cubs After Grievance Loss
Don’t expect any major changes to the relationship between Kris Bryant and the Cubs in the wake of today’s ruling on his service-time grievance action. There’s “no ill will whatsoever” towards the team on Bryant’s part, a source tells Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.
The decision ensures that the Cubs control Bryant for each of the next two seasons. He’s already slated to earn $18.6MM this year and will now go through the arbitration process one more time in advance of the 2021 season.
You might think there’s no cause for concern if you just focus on the single-season earnings. Bryant’s delayed promotion cost him an earlier shot at free agency but did allow him to qualify early for arbitration as a Super Two. He has parlayed that into a big run through the arb process.
But that’s reasoning misses the big picture. Not only has Bryant lost a year of free agency that he could’ve sold for the highest price — quite possibly even higher than what’ll be a big 2021 salary — but he has lost the ability to market himself one season earlier. Market timing is critical. Bryant will now enter free agency at 30 years of age, not an especially youthful point, and runs added risk of injury or performance downturn in the interim.
Still, Bryant doesn’t seem to be taking things personally. While some clubs have looked past service-time considerations to make aggressive promotions — most recently, the Padres did so with Fernando Tatis Jr. — there’s a huge incentive for teams to hold down top prospects just a bit longer than might otherwise be preferred in order to slow their eventual free agent qualification.
Certainly, Bryant and the Cubs have worked together without issue for plenty of time in-between. The grievance was reportedly pursued primarily by the player’s union, which obviously had a broader interest as well. The Bryant-Cubs relationship may be in good-enough shape, but that doesn’t mean it is is bound to continue. An extension seems unlikely and there has even been trade chatter. It’ll be interesting to see whether and when he’ll land in another uniform.
Nationals Acquire Ryne Harper
The Nationals announced today that they have acquired righty Ryne Harper from the Twins. Young righty Hunter McMahon goes to Minnesota in return.
This Harper should not be confused with former Nats’ minor-leaguer Bryan Harper, who’s also a 30-year-old right-hander. The Nationals’ incoming hurler was acquired after he was designated for assignment recently by the Twins.
The Nationals obviously faced some competition to bring in Harper, as they parted with a recent ninth-round draft pick to get him. McMahon, 21, signed an at-slot deal to join the D.C. farm system. He impressed in his first 12 2/3 professional innings, racking up an 18:2 K/BB ratio and allowing just one earned run in the low minors.
It seems there’s a good chance we’ll see another Harper uniform in D.C. While Bryan never made it past Triple-A, big brother Bryce was rather a notable player with the team for a stretch.
The Nats’ newest Harper isn’t exactly a high-ceiling player but could be quite a useful asset. He reached the bigs for the first time in 2019, spinning 54 1/3 innings of 3.81 ERA ball with 8.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 1.16 HR/9 while leaning on his excellent control and heavily utilized breaking ball. If he can repeat something along those lines, the still-optionable Harper would be well worth his non-guaranteed, league-minimum salary.
As for McMahon, the 21-year-old was the Nationals’ ninth-round pick just this past summer in the 2019 draft. The Texas State product allowed one run in 12 2/3 innings of relief with an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio in his brief professional debut.
Brewers To Sign David Phelps
The Brewers have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent righty David Phelps, per Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’ll promise him $1.5MM and comes with a club option for another season, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds (Twitter link).
The deal is loaded with other earning potential as well. Phelps will play for a $1.25MM salary in 2020 but can tack on $1.9MM in incentives. The option is priced at $4.5MM, with a $250K buyout. If Phelps is picked up, there’s another $1.9MM in performance milestones available in 2021.
Phelps, 33, returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019 and showed rather well. He split time between the Blue Jays and Cubs, turning in 34 1/3 frames of 3.41 ERA ball with a 36:17 K/BB ratio. That also enabled him to trigger a clause in his contract that boosted the price of his option year to $5MM, leading the Cubs to decline and send Phelps back onto the market.
The Brewers obviously hope that Phelps can continue to make strides now that he has one post-TJ campaign under his belt. Phelps lost nearly two miles per hour on his average fastball between seasons, so it’d be nice to see some velo return. On a related note, he also managed only a 7.8% swinging-strike rate. But Phelps did show above-average fastball and curveball spin rates, which helped him limit the hard contact allowed against both of those offerings.
Phelps has at times functioned as a high-leverage setup man, but he’ll likely be in more of a middle innings role as part of a deep Milwaukee ‘pen. Josh Hader should have the closer’s role locked down, and Corey Knebel, returning from Tommy John surgery, should give manager Craig Counsell a similarly dominant late-inning option (health permitting).
Former starters Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta could both factor into the mix as well, and the Brew Crew did add Ray Black and his triple-digit fastball prior to the 2019 non-waiver deadline. Lefties Alex Claudio and Brent Suter, too, should play key roles in 2020. Phelps will bring an experienced arm that has worked as a long man and a starter in addition to his time as a setup man, which should give the Brewers flexibility in terms of how they prefer to align their relief troops.